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Bak

no probs, i post on the bf forum through the night usually and easy to share my views on here - also helps clarify them sometimes by writing them down.

market seems to indicate a start imminent, its certainly not raining currently

covers off, should start about 11.30-11.40 ish i guess

Fundy.....thanks and good trading again, i can see i've a lot to learn. My live link
still nacked, looks like it was a one off. Prices on the move now.

bakko....Hi , you here for the night or just part time like me?

Cloudbase
thanks
helps having a radar on the screen of sydney plus a couple of fcasts regularly updating and live pics from sky. That said, most of it was basically momentum trading on the weight of money

Just a part timer tonight.

Probably give it till midnight but will be keeping an eye on the odds

Not sure ill be up all night tonite, prob trade first session, have 3 hours kip then get up for the final session. body is screaming for some sleep and ive got an 11am meeting so gonna have to get some kip at somestage

Just been announced that play should start at midnight our time.

I'm gonna call it a night here so good night guys and will catch you this time tomorrow.

Sa offered the light but declined, play started at midnight, but looks very grim

Smith out in the 2nd over

Just what we wanted, an early wicket

Nice to see the draw odds against, batting looks difficult and a few large cracks opened up on the pitch :-)

rain stopped play :-)

managed to get out of my draw lay in time but didnt manage to turn it round :-(

Nice trading.
I've come to realise the only way to take advantage of these situations is live coverage. Its a bit like being blinkered. There seems to be a lot of nervious draw
money out there, will be better for me when i get Pro platform authorised it gives
so much more information.

Going to turn in now as still rained off.

Cloud

giving it till 2.30, if no more play till then going to bed too

May I consult the oracle(s) about something this morning! I am by no means a novice at these matters but I got interested and attracted to betangel type trading after going to the Manchester presentation on Nov 11th. I have dabbled to a small extent but unsuccessfully. You all seem to make it sound so easy but there is one thing I don't understand. That is when the price for a market only goes one way.

One of you - Scrip or Fundy, I think - favours laying the draw. This I can understand as the first goal usually means the odds going in your favour, often substantially so (ie if the favourites score), and greening up becomes easy.

Using this idea I layed the draw in the United/Arsenal game on Tuesday - at 3.25 gross - with the intention of covering my stake (at least) when the goal came (!).
Now I guess you people would stake 100 (maybe more, but certainly a lot more than my modest fiver, otherwise it would hardly be worth your while). The goal never came (though threatened throughout) and the odds got shorter and shorter.
Obviously I stayed in hoping and fairly sure the goal would come and as time progressed it became pointless backing at eg 1.6 to minimise my potential loss, when there was always the chance that a goal would be scored even well into time added on. I would doubt if anybody could predict from watching the game or match that there would or would not be a goal - because funny things happen.
So I lost 11.25.

Now we come to my big question - what would YOU do if you were sitting on a potential loss of 225 to your 100? What I CAN understand is taking a small hit if you lay a horse at 2.35 (during the last ten minutes, say) and it moves to 2.32. This, as I understand it, is the trader's modus op. But, as I say again, if you have an event that lasts some time AND the odds descend steadily throughout AND there is always the chance of closing out right to the last minute - what do you guys do?

I am going to be very intrigued by your answer(s) and I hope I've not wasted your time! Thanks and cheers!

schiff, I have not traded football much but in principle I would use BetAngel's trailing stop loss facility. i.e. I would allow the automated software to trade my plan for me.

Thus if it turned out that I had been unlucky with my timing of the bet and the odds started to move against me, the software would take me out at (e.g.) 5 adverse ticks.

If the draw odds shortened and my plan was working, the trailing stop would keep me in the trade with a safety net, etc.

The real beauty of the software is that it takes the emotion out. You put your trading plan under its control and you don't sit watching a loss run away.

Edward

Schiff

its not me ( or scrip i dont think) that favours laying the draw at kick off. This is effectively the footie cash generator system (which advises backing 0-0 to cover your stake btw). With the footie, my and most of scrips disciples favoured tactic is backing a side and looking to green up when they score. The downside is, that the odds will start to move against you if no goal is forthcoming. Ultimately you have 2 choices, either to let the bet run, on the basis that your position will slowly be getting worse (time decay is against you) or setting a level at which you are prepared to trade out at a loss and sticking to it. Personally, i prefer the first option and will take the hit if that is what happens - i am not worried about losing on an indiovidual trade if over time the method is profitable. The alternative with the footie is to back the currently winning score, which puts the time decay on your side, however in this instance a goal for one or both sides could destroy your position - hence most of us in this situation look to scalp for the odd tick here and there rather than exposing ourselves to the risk.

If it makes you feel any better i got caught out by the weather in the cricket last night - having traded like a dream for 3 days i left a red position on the draw and am now going to have to bear it (rather than a large profit i could have taken). Though frustrating i took a decision based on the risk reward that i was comfortable with and got it wrong, but over time i am still confident i get it right more often than not to make a decent profit.

To me, that is what it always boils down to, am I happy with the risk/reward profile, and does the theory make a profit over a series of trades

Schiff

its not me ( or scrip i dont think) that favours laying the draw at kick off. This is effectively the footie cash generator system (which advises backing 0-0 to cover your stake btw). With the footie, my and most of scrips disciples favoured tactic is backing a side and looking to green up when they score. The downside is, that the odds will start to move against you if no goal is forthcoming. Ultimately you have 2 choices, either to let the bet run, on the basis that your position will slowly be getting worse (time decay is against you) or setting a level at which you are prepared to trade out at a loss and sticking to it. Personally, i prefer the first option and will take the hit if that is what happens - i am not worried about losing on an indiovidual trade if over time the method is profitable. The alternative with the footie is to back the currently winning score, which puts the time decay on your side, however in this instance a goal for one or both sides could destroy your position - hence most of us in this situation look to scalp for the odd tick here and there rather than exposing ourselves to the risk.

If it makes you feel any better i got caught out by the weather in the cricket last night - having traded like a dream for 3 days i left a red position on the draw and am now going to have to bear it (rather than a large profit i could have taken). Though frustrating i took a decision based on the risk reward that i was comfortable with and got it wrong, but over time i am still confident i get it right more often than not to make a decent profit.

To me, that is what it always boils down to, am I happy with the risk/reward profile, and does the theory make a profit over a series of trades

Can't add much to what Steve (Fundy) has said.

However, I'm not sure where your impression that most of us favuor laying the draw comes from. That is one of my least used strategies.

Back the home team til the death (unless they score in the meantime of course) is my usual strategy but there are many strategies to choose from. You just need to work out which suits you best.

I think you already know that that laying the draw is not perhaps a strategy which suits you. Nor me. It is too expensive when it goes awry.