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Smith out in the 2nd over

Just what we wanted, an early wicket

Nice to see the draw odds against, batting looks difficult and a few large cracks opened up on the pitch :-)

rain stopped play :-)

managed to get out of my draw lay in time but didnt manage to turn it round :-(

Nice trading.
I've come to realise the only way to take advantage of these situations is live coverage. Its a bit like being blinkered. There seems to be a lot of nervious draw
money out there, will be better for me when i get Pro platform authorised it gives
so much more information.

Going to turn in now as still rained off.

Cloud

giving it till 2.30, if no more play till then going to bed too

May I consult the oracle(s) about something this morning! I am by no means a novice at these matters but I got interested and attracted to betangel type trading after going to the Manchester presentation on Nov 11th. I have dabbled to a small extent but unsuccessfully. You all seem to make it sound so easy but there is one thing I don't understand. That is when the price for a market only goes one way.

One of you - Scrip or Fundy, I think - favours laying the draw. This I can understand as the first goal usually means the odds going in your favour, often substantially so (ie if the favourites score), and greening up becomes easy.

Using this idea I layed the draw in the United/Arsenal game on Tuesday - at 3.25 gross - with the intention of covering my stake (at least) when the goal came (!).
Now I guess you people would stake 100 (maybe more, but certainly a lot more than my modest fiver, otherwise it would hardly be worth your while). The goal never came (though threatened throughout) and the odds got shorter and shorter.
Obviously I stayed in hoping and fairly sure the goal would come and as time progressed it became pointless backing at eg 1.6 to minimise my potential loss, when there was always the chance that a goal would be scored even well into time added on. I would doubt if anybody could predict from watching the game or match that there would or would not be a goal - because funny things happen.
So I lost 11.25.

Now we come to my big question - what would YOU do if you were sitting on a potential loss of 225 to your 100? What I CAN understand is taking a small hit if you lay a horse at 2.35 (during the last ten minutes, say) and it moves to 2.32. This, as I understand it, is the trader's modus op. But, as I say again, if you have an event that lasts some time AND the odds descend steadily throughout AND there is always the chance of closing out right to the last minute - what do you guys do?

I am going to be very intrigued by your answer(s) and I hope I've not wasted your time! Thanks and cheers!

schiff, I have not traded football much but in principle I would use BetAngel's trailing stop loss facility. i.e. I would allow the automated software to trade my plan for me.

Thus if it turned out that I had been unlucky with my timing of the bet and the odds started to move against me, the software would take me out at (e.g.) 5 adverse ticks.

If the draw odds shortened and my plan was working, the trailing stop would keep me in the trade with a safety net, etc.

The real beauty of the software is that it takes the emotion out. You put your trading plan under its control and you don't sit watching a loss run away.

Edward

Schiff

its not me ( or scrip i dont think) that favours laying the draw at kick off. This is effectively the footie cash generator system (which advises backing 0-0 to cover your stake btw). With the footie, my and most of scrips disciples favoured tactic is backing a side and looking to green up when they score. The downside is, that the odds will start to move against you if no goal is forthcoming. Ultimately you have 2 choices, either to let the bet run, on the basis that your position will slowly be getting worse (time decay is against you) or setting a level at which you are prepared to trade out at a loss and sticking to it. Personally, i prefer the first option and will take the hit if that is what happens - i am not worried about losing on an indiovidual trade if over time the method is profitable. The alternative with the footie is to back the currently winning score, which puts the time decay on your side, however in this instance a goal for one or both sides could destroy your position - hence most of us in this situation look to scalp for the odd tick here and there rather than exposing ourselves to the risk.

If it makes you feel any better i got caught out by the weather in the cricket last night - having traded like a dream for 3 days i left a red position on the draw and am now going to have to bear it (rather than a large profit i could have taken). Though frustrating i took a decision based on the risk reward that i was comfortable with and got it wrong, but over time i am still confident i get it right more often than not to make a decent profit.

To me, that is what it always boils down to, am I happy with the risk/reward profile, and does the theory make a profit over a series of trades

Schiff

its not me ( or scrip i dont think) that favours laying the draw at kick off. This is effectively the footie cash generator system (which advises backing 0-0 to cover your stake btw). With the footie, my and most of scrips disciples favoured tactic is backing a side and looking to green up when they score. The downside is, that the odds will start to move against you if no goal is forthcoming. Ultimately you have 2 choices, either to let the bet run, on the basis that your position will slowly be getting worse (time decay is against you) or setting a level at which you are prepared to trade out at a loss and sticking to it. Personally, i prefer the first option and will take the hit if that is what happens - i am not worried about losing on an indiovidual trade if over time the method is profitable. The alternative with the footie is to back the currently winning score, which puts the time decay on your side, however in this instance a goal for one or both sides could destroy your position - hence most of us in this situation look to scalp for the odd tick here and there rather than exposing ourselves to the risk.

If it makes you feel any better i got caught out by the weather in the cricket last night - having traded like a dream for 3 days i left a red position on the draw and am now going to have to bear it (rather than a large profit i could have taken). Though frustrating i took a decision based on the risk reward that i was comfortable with and got it wrong, but over time i am still confident i get it right more often than not to make a decent profit.

To me, that is what it always boils down to, am I happy with the risk/reward profile, and does the theory make a profit over a series of trades

Can't add much to what Steve (Fundy) has said.

However, I'm not sure where your impression that most of us favuor laying the draw comes from. That is one of my least used strategies.

Back the home team til the death (unless they score in the meantime of course) is my usual strategy but there are many strategies to choose from. You just need to work out which suits you best.

I think you already know that that laying the draw is not perhaps a strategy which suits you. Nor me. It is too expensive when it goes awry.

If you are going to lay the draw at the outset, then a small bet on 0-0 to cover your stake removes a fair amount (though not all) of the risk. If no goals then you are covered, if the favoured side score first then the draw will drift and you will be nicely in profit however if the unfancied side score first then the draw may well shorten.

Schiff,

Here's my 2 penny's worth.

I certainly second what's already been said by Fundy and Harlosh in that laying the draw at the outset wouldn't be one of my strategies either.

However, if I was faced with the scenario you described I would take the 200 loss on the chin and accept it as a losing trade. Over the long term the winners should hopefully far outnumber the losers.

Alternatively, you could try to trade out of the losing position. Unfortunately the liability will be far greater than -200. Great if the trade works out but a far bigger loss if it doesn't. Tried them all during my early days and still bear the scars in my account......still hurts when I think of those reckless trades!

I saw the Arsenal V Man U game the other night and dreadful was an understatement. Nowadays I tend to watch for 10 mins before trading a footie game just to see how decent it is. I made a profit on it by scalping the draw and greening up within the final half hour.

Thank you one and all! Nobody could ever say this thread deals with novices with sarcastic disdain and I appreciate that. You have all been very helpful (something I'm sure Cloudbase would agree with in spite of his money market experience).

Auxerre v Monaco is one of the few betting mediums this evening. I have done my research and laid 4 goals or more at 5.1 (my bet only partly filled). It's likely to be a tight game as each team could finish in second spot if they win. Auxerre are free scoring and free conceding but Monaco are stingy. In away games 24-14 in 2003/4 (2 goals per game), 14-14 (!!) in 19 games in 2004/5 and currently 9-9 in 10 games).

Should it ever get to 3 goals scored I would hope to cover myself via the same screen or via laying no next goal - in both cases comfortably if it's late enough in the game. I'll keep this page open if you should fancy commenting throughout the game.

Forgot to mention all screens are In Play.

http://www1.soccerstand.com/

You may find this site useful Schiff though it frequently falls over and is much delayed. However you can monitor every match at a glance and switch between them to steal ticks here and there.

Hope it helps.

Another tip:

If you're going out on the p*ss make it a thursday night. There's rarely any decent football to be traded :-)))

Thanks for that Harlosh. I have usually used livescore.com for monitoring my match scores though Ceefax sometimes beats it! Updated every 2 minutes. But your suggestion has other facets which are useful. For my stats I also use soccerbase.com. I haven't looked but it's probably live on Eurosport or something.
But I don't want it to interfere too much with "Submarine Rescue" on BBC1 at 9pm which sounds as if it could be fascinating. Sorry to sound like a pleb who 's got another life from the exchanges!

Going quite well till Monaco scored at 30m, then it got worse when Auxerre equalised at 35m! I got filled at 5.17, 4g or more could be backed at 10 prior to the goal, 5 after the first and 2 after the second. It's HT now and 2.65 is offered.
It's going to be a long 2nd half.