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Schiff

its not me ( or scrip i dont think) that favours laying the draw at kick off. This is effectively the footie cash generator system (which advises backing 0-0 to cover your stake btw). With the footie, my and most of scrips disciples favoured tactic is backing a side and looking to green up when they score. The downside is, that the odds will start to move against you if no goal is forthcoming. Ultimately you have 2 choices, either to let the bet run, on the basis that your position will slowly be getting worse (time decay is against you) or setting a level at which you are prepared to trade out at a loss and sticking to it. Personally, i prefer the first option and will take the hit if that is what happens - i am not worried about losing on an indiovidual trade if over time the method is profitable. The alternative with the footie is to back the currently winning score, which puts the time decay on your side, however in this instance a goal for one or both sides could destroy your position - hence most of us in this situation look to scalp for the odd tick here and there rather than exposing ourselves to the risk.

If it makes you feel any better i got caught out by the weather in the cricket last night - having traded like a dream for 3 days i left a red position on the draw and am now going to have to bear it (rather than a large profit i could have taken). Though frustrating i took a decision based on the risk reward that i was comfortable with and got it wrong, but over time i am still confident i get it right more often than not to make a decent profit.

To me, that is what it always boils down to, am I happy with the risk/reward profile, and does the theory make a profit over a series of trades

Can't add much to what Steve (Fundy) has said.

However, I'm not sure where your impression that most of us favuor laying the draw comes from. That is one of my least used strategies.

Back the home team til the death (unless they score in the meantime of course) is my usual strategy but there are many strategies to choose from. You just need to work out which suits you best.

I think you already know that that laying the draw is not perhaps a strategy which suits you. Nor me. It is too expensive when it goes awry.

If you are going to lay the draw at the outset, then a small bet on 0-0 to cover your stake removes a fair amount (though not all) of the risk. If no goals then you are covered, if the favoured side score first then the draw will drift and you will be nicely in profit however if the unfancied side score first then the draw may well shorten.

Schiff,

Here's my 2 penny's worth.

I certainly second what's already been said by Fundy and Harlosh in that laying the draw at the outset wouldn't be one of my strategies either.

However, if I was faced with the scenario you described I would take the 200 loss on the chin and accept it as a losing trade. Over the long term the winners should hopefully far outnumber the losers.

Alternatively, you could try to trade out of the losing position. Unfortunately the liability will be far greater than -200. Great if the trade works out but a far bigger loss if it doesn't. Tried them all during my early days and still bear the scars in my account......still hurts when I think of those reckless trades!

I saw the Arsenal V Man U game the other night and dreadful was an understatement. Nowadays I tend to watch for 10 mins before trading a footie game just to see how decent it is. I made a profit on it by scalping the draw and greening up within the final half hour.

Thank you one and all! Nobody could ever say this thread deals with novices with sarcastic disdain and I appreciate that. You have all been very helpful (something I'm sure Cloudbase would agree with in spite of his money market experience).

Auxerre v Monaco is one of the few betting mediums this evening. I have done my research and laid 4 goals or more at 5.1 (my bet only partly filled). It's likely to be a tight game as each team could finish in second spot if they win. Auxerre are free scoring and free conceding but Monaco are stingy. In away games 24-14 in 2003/4 (2 goals per game), 14-14 (!!) in 19 games in 2004/5 and currently 9-9 in 10 games).

Should it ever get to 3 goals scored I would hope to cover myself via the same screen or via laying no next goal - in both cases comfortably if it's late enough in the game. I'll keep this page open if you should fancy commenting throughout the game.

Forgot to mention all screens are In Play.

http://www1.soccerstand.com/

You may find this site useful Schiff though it frequently falls over and is much delayed. However you can monitor every match at a glance and switch between them to steal ticks here and there.

Hope it helps.

Another tip:

If you're going out on the p*ss make it a thursday night. There's rarely any decent football to be traded :-)))

Thanks for that Harlosh. I have usually used livescore.com for monitoring my match scores though Ceefax sometimes beats it! Updated every 2 minutes. But your suggestion has other facets which are useful. For my stats I also use soccerbase.com. I haven't looked but it's probably live on Eurosport or something.
But I don't want it to interfere too much with "Submarine Rescue" on BBC1 at 9pm which sounds as if it could be fascinating. Sorry to sound like a pleb who 's got another life from the exchanges!

Going quite well till Monaco scored at 30m, then it got worse when Auxerre equalised at 35m! I got filled at 5.17, 4g or more could be backed at 10 prior to the goal, 5 after the first and 2 after the second. It's HT now and 2.65 is offered.
It's going to be a long 2nd half.

Fingers crossed for you schiff though I see it is now 2-1.

I tend to avoid high lay prices. I'm content to lose my stake if it goes wrong but not multiples of it.

Backed Auxerre at 1.31

Green at 1.15

schiff Hi
I whole hartedly endorse what you say about this thread.The help and advice i have received on here is priceless.
Untill Scrips. presentation at the Nov am Manchester do i had never considered using betting exchanges as a trading medium and had never even placed a bet at a bookies so didn't even know the basics. Now 2 mnths later thanks to the help of all on here am now on the same learning curve with this as i began 5yrs ago on the financial markets, and enjoying every min. of it.
Good luck
Steve.

Wait for the Australian tennis open - it's fantastic!!!

Not more night shifts John!!!!

looks like the weather may be ok in sydney for the cricket (talking of night shifts!). If by some strange occurrence there is a result, then im buying when we go out next.

Schiff/Cloudbase

dont know how local you are to Manchester but as you have probably noticed me Harlosh and Bak meet up occasionally for a beer, a bite to eat and normally end up in the casino and also gives us a good chance to talk about the trading - im sure the other 2 wouldnt mind if either of you wanted to join us at any stage

Ps John/Bak - when are we going out next?

nice trading John

Can't say I enjoyed that! At 60m when it was 2-1 and 1.7 was offered I virtually gave up. Relieved and surprised when it was still 2-1 at 81m, I decided it wasn't worth risking 21 to win 4.75 so I backed at 4 and 4.9 to risk losing only 4 but winning nothing if it stayed as it was.

I think I'm with you Harlosh. My favourite lay is odds-on shots which I enjoy. The reason - you win more than you risk. The problem with the bet I did this evening is that for every loser you need at least four winners and that percentage is pretty hard to achieve! Sometimes I wish I'd not heard of Betfair (joke!) but I'm glad it's there for you fellows.

I think I'll just stick with backing Sue Smith and Emma Lavelle's chasers and Nicky Henderson in November and December.

I think you have to avoid trading for the sake of it schiff. If you just take what's on offer and don't chase it, it is surprising how it comes to you. Slowly does it really and the gains mount up.

Steve,

I noticed a few posts up Bak asking about next Thursday for a night out. You must have missed it. Was checking I was OK for then so now next Thursday is fine by me. All newcomers welcome of course.

I have a spare bed if anyone wants one!

John/Bak

next thursday is fine by me - is the plan the same as last time - printworks for a beer and chinese then the casino?

weather forecasts looking ok ish for the cricket - please MR Smith declare in the first hour