ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

The discussion of CFDs and the question as to how much further will ASOS go are clearly linked. If you believe that they are approaching their peak at around 1 then you don't do CFDs. You can't do probability analysis on it. But in a way you have to! Investing is a nice name for gambling, but perhaps the whole of life is a gamble! So, if I believe ASOS will soar away over 1, what do I do? OK, hold what I have. OK, buy some more. But why not, instead of buying, say, 3600 shares, buy a CFD for 12,000 for the same money. OK, you say, but what about the downside. We are back to the probabilities in my mind. It is a much better bet, in my view, and lower risk, to put 3000 on a CFD in ASOS than buying the shares of M&S or even Next. If I couldn't afford to lose the money, I would invest in Tesco and leave it there for 10 years!

So how far will ASOS go? Say for current year, 16m revenue, 1.6m pbt gives a pe of 37.5 at 90p. That's a bit challenging already isn't it? So let me say what could be said about current trading and perhaps in an analyst forecast:

1. Above revenue is based on first five months trading (AGM statement). But they strengthened their menswear theam in March, accessories team in April, jewellery tam in June and appointed both footwear and beauty buyers in time for the Xmas season. So we could be looking at something more like 20m.

2. Cost of sales ia about 50% of turnover. Based on growth in overheads last year, it would appear that overheads may not be more than 75% of gross profit.

3. This would mean revenue of 20M, profits of 2.5M and a pe down to 27.

4. Given that the price will normally reflect projections for 2005, lets say these are revenue 40M, profits 5m, pe 13.5.

Well, you say, that means the current price is justified Then we add in that the growth in online fashion purchases from one in 24 last year to one in four in 2009 so the growth is not impeded by market capacity for the next five years. So ASOS continues to grow exponentially. Then we factor in the fact that they must be a marvellous takeover target for one of the retail chains desparate to have a significant stake in the online market.

Finally, we factor in that everyone and his dog will want a share in the action, people will pile in as the top appears and the share will overshoot. I think you can justify 150p but it could overshoot to 200p. That is the range in which I aim to take profits!

Warning! A lot of this is conjecture! But it does represent my deeply held views on the share and on which I am prepared to base my decisions - until and unless I am proved wrong that is. In a way you are better to ignore this so long as you hold until the interims and can update this view with actual news from the company and their analysts.

Eric

Of course there is always the chartist view. Apparently we have just begun the first wave of a three wave bull run, the first wave is due to stall and take breath at 1.40, before the second wave takes over.

The third wave, wait for it, takes us up to 5 !!!

Hardly bares thinking about.

capa

2 x 232,500 buys at 90p suggest we may have a way to go yet.

capa

Really hoping that PET comes through before these results are due as would really love a much bigger chunk than I have at the moment.

sandrew

And so say all of us! And so say all of us! For they are jolly good fellows: ASOS management, their buyers and their clients; Horgan and the PET guys; the Iraqi Oil Minister and his cohorts (not to mention the YOO management and their takeover target)... Back to refrain! We need consecutive jumps to correspond with capa's consecutive waves in a bull run.

capa

I like that. Happy that the first wave 1.40 is in line with my 1.50. But hold the price back please as I can't buy my next CFD until Thursday! (will include some AZM, I think!)

Eric

sandrew

exactly my position!

capa

what is the timescale of these waves? is it linked to the results?

JJ

107606

I am no chartist but I know someone that is.

His view is that for the chart to behave perfectly the 5 will be reached by September next year. The waves are equidistant so 1.40 by Feb the next wave takes us to May/June and hey presto !!

Stepping back for a second you have to realise that this scenario depends upon results being great, and all other things being equal (interest rates/terrorism,stock market crash etc etc).

It also takes a great leap of faith to believe that ASOS can be valued at 300 million by next September, if you cannot see this being possible forget the 5imo.

What would need to happen ?

Profits before tax of say 6 million for the year end accompanied with a trading statement so upbeat it makes you swoon.

Broker estimates of say 15 million profits for yr end 2006 and then the market to re-evaluate favourably.

Far fetched ? Who knows, but I remember an out of town retailer not so long back called Matalan.

capa

Eric - Hurry up I can't hold AZM back any longer. Feel like the boy with
his finger in the dyke.

capa

Thats dyke as in the ones found in Holland in case any of you with filthy minds get the wrong idea :-)

capa

capa, johngtudor

Thanks for that, capa. Done CFDs for ASC and AZM this morning. The problem with the sp ramping with both stocks its a real problem being out of the market for effectively 3 days. There seems to be no alternative with blue index though otherwise their service is fine. I had freed some additional funds but decided to go directly into ASC at 92.5p rather than take the risk of waiting for Monday, although I could then have made the funds go three times as far. Probably best to take the CFD thing a step at a time. We are getting pretty close to the interims and I see the price going through 1 early next week in anticipation. What a great share!

Eric

well done to all asos holders that kept their nerve... my beloved BNH have bounced back to over a pound again!!!

I don't like to talk negative on bb, but ASC is on a p/e of 100+... any bad news (not that i assume there will be) with a company on that sort of p/e will drop off potentially.

Disagree legend about the p/e. For it to be 100+ the eps for the year would be around 90p. I think this will be beaten come the interims


capa

Just added 4000 at 87.5p. Definately my last purchase.

capa

legend

Reasonable concerns and the chance of companies dropping off is always there. However, you do need to take a total perspective rather than picking out a particular figure. A pe is historical and, in the case of ASOS for instance, virtually meaningless. If you want to follow this through, look at my post 760 in which I try to assess the target price for first quarter next year (essentially the finals) and arrive at a figure of 150p. capa then comments that a chartist has arrived at 140p as the figure for the first of three waves of expansion. Interesting that the conclusions are so close: the fundamentals and the chartist view. If you have any concern about the price movement, i.e. you are wondering whether to hold or buy, then have a look at that post, together with the last finals and subsequent trading updates and do come back with any provisos or different views.

The 150p projection is essentially based on the ASOS as we know it: the fashion internet business targetted at internet savvy young people, primarily females. Having formed a reasonably well researched view, I almost take the movement to 150p as read: I will be mightily surprised if there is any significant hiccough, although I don't deny the possibility. The question for me is 'where from there'? With the extremely rapid expansion of the internet market, it may be that they concentrate on broadening their customer base, their range of offerings and do more of the same. capa's third wave, if not second, (post 761) must be dependent, I would have thought, on an expansion of the business, possibly by takeover, possible by generic growth which draws far more buying (presumably fashion) onto the internet.

Shares mag. this week might give a clue. In an article on Inflation, Timon day gives his 'naps' - what to avoid and wahat to buy: these include selected utilities and high yielders; "Buy retailers like ASOS and Ideal Shopping (IDS), which are cheaper than high-street outlets Like M&S that charge too much. Thus ASOS is a retailer which benefits from (a) market leadership in a specific sector; (b) quality reputation; (c) extremely low overheads. The low overheads, together with convenience, will drive consumers to the Internet (and digital TV) buying. How will ASOS exploit its leadership role; what markets will they espouse - in other words, how (not whether) will they tackle phases 2 and 3 of their expansion?

Eric

Eric:
Did you get my email???

Seymour Pierce has recently upped ASOS from buy to outperform which may have helped the recent rise.

capa

capa

Good news re the Seymour Pierce 'outperform' guidance as they are the house brokers. Confirms the confirmation of confirming news at the interims!
Don't believe that that was your last top-up! Your still light at under 50% aren't you!

Eric

Eric

LOL, yes, should have put "probably" my last top up.

Done some quick calculations and ASOS represents about 35% of my holdings.

capa

capa

All the respectable people, like johngtudor and EWR, have 50%+. Sandrew is excused as she is a major shareholder in PET. Even AZM doesn't let you off the hook! Good to see finally become probably.

Eric

SEADOG

Not arrived yet but may be coming via sea-mail!

Eric