ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

capa, johngtudor

Thanks for that, capa. Done CFDs for ASC and AZM this morning. The problem with the sp ramping with both stocks its a real problem being out of the market for effectively 3 days. There seems to be no alternative with blue index though otherwise their service is fine. I had freed some additional funds but decided to go directly into ASC at 92.5p rather than take the risk of waiting for Monday, although I could then have made the funds go three times as far. Probably best to take the CFD thing a step at a time. We are getting pretty close to the interims and I see the price going through 1 early next week in anticipation. What a great share!

Eric

well done to all asos holders that kept their nerve... my beloved BNH have bounced back to over a pound again!!!

I don't like to talk negative on bb, but ASC is on a p/e of 100+... any bad news (not that i assume there will be) with a company on that sort of p/e will drop off potentially.

Disagree legend about the p/e. For it to be 100+ the eps for the year would be around 90p. I think this will be beaten come the interims


capa

Just added 4000 at 87.5p. Definately my last purchase.

capa

legend

Reasonable concerns and the chance of companies dropping off is always there. However, you do need to take a total perspective rather than picking out a particular figure. A pe is historical and, in the case of ASOS for instance, virtually meaningless. If you want to follow this through, look at my post 760 in which I try to assess the target price for first quarter next year (essentially the finals) and arrive at a figure of 150p. capa then comments that a chartist has arrived at 140p as the figure for the first of three waves of expansion. Interesting that the conclusions are so close: the fundamentals and the chartist view. If you have any concern about the price movement, i.e. you are wondering whether to hold or buy, then have a look at that post, together with the last finals and subsequent trading updates and do come back with any provisos or different views.

The 150p projection is essentially based on the ASOS as we know it: the fashion internet business targetted at internet savvy young people, primarily females. Having formed a reasonably well researched view, I almost take the movement to 150p as read: I will be mightily surprised if there is any significant hiccough, although I don't deny the possibility. The question for me is 'where from there'? With the extremely rapid expansion of the internet market, it may be that they concentrate on broadening their customer base, their range of offerings and do more of the same. capa's third wave, if not second, (post 761) must be dependent, I would have thought, on an expansion of the business, possibly by takeover, possible by generic growth which draws far more buying (presumably fashion) onto the internet.

Shares mag. this week might give a clue. In an article on Inflation, Timon day gives his 'naps' - what to avoid and wahat to buy: these include selected utilities and high yielders; "Buy retailers like ASOS and Ideal Shopping (IDS), which are cheaper than high-street outlets Like M&S that charge too much. Thus ASOS is a retailer which benefits from (a) market leadership in a specific sector; (b) quality reputation; (c) extremely low overheads. The low overheads, together with convenience, will drive consumers to the Internet (and digital TV) buying. How will ASOS exploit its leadership role; what markets will they espouse - in other words, how (not whether) will they tackle phases 2 and 3 of their expansion?

Eric

Eric:
Did you get my email???

Seymour Pierce has recently upped ASOS from buy to outperform which may have helped the recent rise.

capa

capa

Good news re the Seymour Pierce 'outperform' guidance as they are the house brokers. Confirms the confirmation of confirming news at the interims!
Don't believe that that was your last top-up! Your still light at under 50% aren't you!

Eric

Eric

LOL, yes, should have put "probably" my last top up.

Done some quick calculations and ASOS represents about 35% of my holdings.

capa

capa

All the respectable people, like johngtudor and EWR, have 50%+. Sandrew is excused as she is a major shareholder in PET. Even AZM doesn't let you off the hook! Good to see finally become probably.

Eric

SEADOG

Not arrived yet but may be coming via sea-mail!

Eric

Afraid I come in at a measley 23%....not a patch on you guys! Anyone with lots of spare time on their hands and good with charts and the like?? Couldn't do me a huge favour and have a quick peek at DFD for short/med term. Humour me please.....I'll put the kettle on.

Eric
Sent via moneyam private email yesterday pm

Sandra

4 hours and no reply to your question on DFD. I hope the kettle hasn't boiled dry; almost time for the afternoon cuppa! johngtudor is your guy for the charts; we know he is tied up with his FTSE program but, as your computer wizard, you can no doubt get him directly. Not a chart guy myself, but a 'fundamentally good' fellow so I'll give you a reaction from a quick perusal.

First, they come across as 'fundamentally good'! I like the bit about the rehabilitation of those suffering from debt. We've seen the attitude now being taken to comapnies who fleece those in debt and DFD are the opposite. As legislation takes effect and makes companies put their house in order, a company like DFD should prosper. The chart shows a breakthrough to new levels. Curentt trading is up 63% and results should be in line with expectations - this news has sent the already rising price up which is surprising in one respect. There is clearly a delay in the process of recruitment and bringing new consultants on board. So company prospects are clearly good, they are expanding rapidly and good get the reputation as a leading 'white angel' in an avaricious market-place. The question I would have would relate to the cap. of 37.5M at 125p. which seems to accommodate a lot of growth. 63% growth will still be under 7M and they are probably honour bound to keep margind reasonable. At 15% we would have a pe of something like 35. Probably a good long-term investment but not overweight (like ASC or PET)! perhaps good to put some ill-gotten PET profits in!

Eric

sandra

DFD looks interesting but not sure that now is the best time to get in. In a few weeks, I believe the lock in period following float is due to expire which could mean some sellers.

Erring on caution it may be better to leave for a month before buying, assuming a PET holder could ever be cautious.

capa

sandra

have held DFD for quite some time. Currently over 70% paper profit. Less than 80% held outside founders/family. Have heard institutional interest awaiting sales after lock out period expires in December. Am unsure if this will affect the SP downwards or upwards. Anyones opinion welcome. ...Also hold ASOS and PET and am regular reader but not contributor to BB's.

If institutions are being lined up then I would suggest this may mean a temporary dip in price, but overall an increase in liquidity will be a good thing.

capa

Thanks everybody for your comments and opinions.Hilluk please join us on the DFD thread.There are so few contributors over there and we could really use more input.
Eric ...It's really helpful to have your opinion. I tend to rely rather heavily on my gut instincts...nice to have some technical analysis to back it up.
Glad to see ASC sp rebounding. What brought on the rash of sellers today!

sandra

Well, I do try to do the logical analysis bit but looking back on the buys they tend to be an irrational mix of intuitive mind, emotional heart and instinctive gut!

Re ASC sellers: mea culpa! It wos I wot did it with the CFD yesterday at too high a price - wailing and gnashing of teeth! Probably mainly positions being closed for the weekend. I suspect some late so-called sells could have been buys delayed for an hour - not sure whether 25,000 would fall into that category. Going by the sell price matching the buy of an hour earlier.

Oh! must do the figures! See you later!

Eric

ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

Still a wait and see week with the portfolio. But we are coming up to some significant movements - hopefully upwards.

company________ EPIC price,p shares shares price_ value_ cap.(m) gain/_ gain on
____________________ buy____ in iss bt.___ 19-Nov 19-Nov________ loss % week %

ASOS____________ ASC 56_____ 67.97__ 8900_ 85.50_ 7609.5 58.11__ 52.68_ 6.21
Broker Network H BNH 77.5___ 15.065_ 6450_ 101.50 6546.8 15.29__ 30.97_ 8.56
Stanelco________ SEO 4.5____ 78.225_ 111000 5.62_ 6238.2 4.40___ 24.89_ 40.50
Civilian Content CCN 16.25__ 41.883_ 30700_ 17.50 5372.5 7.33___ 7.69__ -7.89
Petroceltic Int. PCI 15_____ 484.975 33300_ 16.00 5328.0 77.60__ 6.67__ -1.54
Yoomedia________ YOO 22_____ 125.538 22700_ 23.00 5221.0 28.87__ 4.55__ 0.00
Sterling Energy_ SEY 17.25__ 822.712 29000_ 18.00 5220.0 148.09_ 4.35__ 2.86
Marchpole Hold._ MPH 33.75__ 120.455 14800_ 32.75 4847.0 39.45__ -2.96_ -2.24
cybit holdings__ CYH 1.82___ 988.952 275000 1.70_ 4675.0 16.81__ -6.59_ 0.00
Petrel Resources PET 124.5__ 58.625 4000___ 105.00 4200.0 61.56_ -15.66 -6.67
CFA Capital Gp__ CFP 0.7____ 619___ 714000_ 0.50_ 3570.0 3.10___ -28.57 0.00

total__________________________________________________ 58828.0__ 6.96_ 3.43
Smallcap index__________________________________2691.10 57003.9__ 3.64_ 0.47

ASOS continues to lead the way with good progress again. In fact, 90p has been broken only for the stock to fall back through profit-taking. There has been some dialogue on this column as to how far the share can go. There seems to some agreement between the fundamentals and chartist approaches that the share can reach 140p-150p in first few months of next year. One chartist view puts this as the first of three waves of progress taking the share to 5. A Shares Mg. recommendation in the contect of inflation-proofing with ASC as a desirable Retail share would seem to be taking a similar view.

The mover of the week has been Stanelco. The gloom with the court case has been thrown off with the announcement of a deal with Asda. Given the Walmart relationship that would certainly seem to open up the horizons.

ASC has interims coming up on 29th November: an upgrading from their house brokers from Buy to Overweight is encouraging that a bullish forecast will be forthcoming. BNH report the following day and the price has been moving ahead in anticipation.

Also by the end of November, there is real hope that a major PET win in Iraq will be announced by the Iraqi Oil Ministry, possibly during the procurement Conference early next week: the price could rocket. YOO is still suspended whilst finance is negotiated for a major gaming acquisition with the target much larger than YOO itself; disucssion on the bb expects a price rise to between 30p and 35p and possibly much higher - the reutrn from suspension should also be by the end of November.

Civilian Content, Marchpole and cybit have all failed to carry through good news. Another CYH deal, this time with Sainsbury, has had relatively little reflection in the SP. Shares comments for MPH that "although the group has some strong niche brands the rating is about right". With a prospective PE of 9, try telling that to the bb adherents. CFP continues to languish through the lack of news, despite signs of good trading.

PCI gets a good write-up in Shares. SEY is also included in their Oil and Gas portfolio. Without exception, the shares in the portfolio look good holdings - we are back to the key issue of timing. There is no share in the portfolio that you would not expect to rise, in most cases, significantly over the next year.

Eric