Scripophilist
- 27 Oct 2004 23:40

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Fundamentalist
- 23 Jan 2006 21:57
- 8038 of 10502
Schiff
Just to put it into context, Federer in the first 2 sets (especially the second) was awesome, Haas has played well against him recently and prob had as good as chance of beating him as anyone imo. When the chips were down, Federers true class showed (on all accounts the line call was right by 7mm lol).
The big problem you have with the Davydenko bet is he plays Federer tonight (midnight start on Eurosport) and personally cant give him a chance in this game - to be honest id be surprised if he wins a set. It maybe worth putting a lay off trade in the winner market at a level you would hope Davydenko to get to if he gets ahead
With regard to the Nalbandian bet, ultimately to win the tournament he will have to beat Santoro tonight (he's a 1.22 fav to do so) then in the semis he'll face the winner of Ljubic and Bagdhatis (probably Ljubic). Again i would expect him to be fav for this game. If he wins them both then he will be in the final, with it highly likely he'll face federer. If it gets to the stage where he gets to the final, this is the point at which i would be looking to trade out for a guaranteed profit.
So to conclude, pray for Davydenko to beat Federer (or at least get ahead enough to lay off) and let the Nalbandian bet run until he reaches the final (hopefully) unless Federer is knocked out beforehand at which stage you will have a decent opportunity to trade out of
hope this helps
ps Federer will win the tournament imo (he had his scare last night and thats the closest any one will get)
Fundamentalist
- 23 Jan 2006 21:58
- 8039 of 10502
Scrip
prob 2 yrs, and definitely 5 months too late!!!
schiff
- 23 Jan 2006 22:44
- 8040 of 10502
Thanks Fundy - that's the sort of thing I'm after. I know the situation with DD is hopeless. When it was approaching 2 sets all and Haas was going better then Fed, Fed was still about 1.2. DD's price is 17 now and I could sacrifice a fair chunk of the potential profit to be carried forward for a fairish return.
In the case of Nalbandian it is easier as Santoro is at 5.4 and I would be giving up a lot less.
Thanks again.
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:00
- 8041 of 10502
Cracking game going on between Ljubicic and Bagdhatis at the mo. Ljubicic was 1.4 fav but Bagshatis is 2 sets up having played brilliantly. The 3rd set is far more even and Ljubicic is getting back into the match and at 4-4 in the 3rd could be intersting if Ljubicic could nick this set
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:07
- 8042 of 10502
Now 2-1 in sets
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:20
- 8043 of 10502
Ljubicic has broken in the 4th
bakko
- 24 Jan 2006 13:29
- 8044 of 10502
Hi Steve,
Keeping half an eye on this match too. Not on this but turning out to be a cracking match.
Managed to lump on the India v Pak draw this morning and greened up at 1.03.
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:30
- 8045 of 10502
Bak
got myself into a bit of a mess and am in need of Bagdhatis to regain control - had a nice green position and overtraded :-(
well done on the cricket, made a few quid on the odi
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:37
- 8046 of 10502
2 sets all
oops
bakko
- 24 Jan 2006 13:37
- 8047 of 10502
Steve,
I hope for your sake he turns it around.
I've not really seen much of the Aussie Open but know that Bagdhatis has been the find of the tournament having made easy work of Roddick and others.
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:38
- 8048 of 10502
Bak
problem being that his previous games seems to be telling now and he is looking visibly tired. Not holding out great hopes at the moment
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:40
- 8049 of 10502
Only comfort is he has won all 4 5th sets hes played whilst ljubicic has about a 25% success rate, but the momentum is clearly against him at the moment
bakko
- 24 Jan 2006 13:43
- 8050 of 10502
Also Ljubicic is the in form player having played very well over the back end of last year to get himself into the masters cup
schiff
- 24 Jan 2006 13:47
- 8051 of 10502
What channel are you all watching it on - please?
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:48
- 8052 of 10502
Its on either BBC 2 Interactive or Eurosport (410)
Ljubicic 2 break points
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:49
- 8053 of 10502
both saved, back to deuce lol
schiff
- 24 Jan 2006 13:50
- 8054 of 10502
Cheers Fundy
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:51
- 8055 of 10502
Somehow bagdhatis held serve - come on lets break him now :-)
bakko
- 24 Jan 2006 13:52
- 8056 of 10502
Couldn't resist a trade and managed to haul in over 10 ticks on Ljub's service game and now green!
This match is too dodgy to call so I'm happy to sit on this till the end.
Schiff...I'm on the live scoreboard...LOL
Fundamentalist
- 24 Jan 2006 13:54
- 8057 of 10502
Bak
wanna swap books lol