< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
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In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

despite the strong(er) $, US Light is still above $74.00, and frankly, i don't think it matters much as long as it stays above $70 or even perhaps $65 ..... the other bits you mention are also fairly irrelevant except insofar as they MAY affect sentiment.

AFR's progress will be based on its progress(!) in extracting its oil, for it already looks to have made the right friends in gov't

mkt sentimesnt is everything Mr, C - thats my point . lgnore euro debt at yr peril .....,Answer my Q . 70p real or unrealistic ...a simple yes or no will surfice..........Despite govt connecttions it has twice failed despite a great deal of huff and puff to breach 100p for 10 consec days

73 and rising is 200 dma mark

72p next support level if this little rally stalls and reverses. Really needs to maintain the latest uptrend folllowing the failure of the original at 92p

If it does drop 75p or less here's some reasons for getting in?

Active 2010 work programme

19 operated wells (exploration / appraisal / production) in firm schedule for 2010

Phase 1 Ebok development - 15,000 bopd (7 wells)

Accelerated Phase 2 Ebok development - 20,000 bopd (6 wells)

Okoro infill drilling, Nigeria (2 wells)

OML 115 exploration, Nigeria (1 well)

Ebok deep exploration, Nigeria (1 well)

La Noumbi, Congo (1 well currently drilling)

Okwok appraisal, Nigeria (1 well)

Total discretionary capex of US$430 million, funded from existing resources

cyril
ps FEP have just been awarded their lonh awaited service contract,worth checking out.

Slt mon amis !! A Mr. C states AFR ( as with most oiles will either sink or swim acc. to its OWN merits): but this mkt when in reverse mode initially overexxagerates the decline only to correct usually next trading day ln short :lt tends to wash baby down plughole with bathwater . So simply a case of waiting and watching then - in the hope of 75p .......lncidentally if sub 72p was breached i would consider it oversold and be in big time. Phew FEP !! up 21p....l have a few ks worth but nothing worth getting exited about

If it breaches 72p, I'd wait for 60p!!

well thats logical and rational thinking PTH; but i personally think 60p is a giveaway.-AFR has too many irons in the fire .Surely it would take a general sell off to sink to that degree ....ln saying that ......qui sait ? .....without app. nosey -Do u have a position in AFR , and at what price ?,,,,,,,,,Acc to a notorious shorter-who is my neighbor as it happens ) AFR is his only really BIG long

TFC - no position in AFR at the moment. I'd probably prefer to be long rather than short, but happy to wait for a safer entry or even miss it altogether, it all depends on SP performance relative to existing trendlines over the coming weeks.

To be fair, AFR technical analysis is no different to many other stocks at the moment; I spent hours last night drawing trendlines on FTSE stocks and a large percentage have breached trendline support established post crash. Perhaps a bigger correction is on its way??

Yr sentiments very similar to mine PTH !! And what is more u could be very right !!! l noticed identical criteria reg post crash trendlines while investigating retailers sector and thats why i am short on a plethora of stock with high gearing ect ect ........Mr. C thinks i am brave in declaring i am short on so many - but i think history repeats itself ( sometimes very quickly),people have very short memories,( esp in this game ) and the mkt is back in bubble territory. ...Cash is king !!

TFC the bubble burst last year.

yes i agree H; but last year was last year ..........Since then many stocks have reached their pre-crash highs and are ripe for correction ...........This is not the start of any bull mkt. At best the mkt is neutral ...........and looking at futures mkt it looks overbought .....

it's certainly a very dangerous time and nimbleness of foot and finger is paramount

If your trading it is ,,depends on your time frame ...Really hope i dont get stopped out here as i believe in the future ,may have to bend my own rules....

i don't think there is more than perhaps 10% downside to AFR, unless markets get seriously rattled; in which case all bets are off

Hope your right ,,i am still in profit here and as the heading says thought this may be the next Tullow...

i didn't write that, but though that may be a bit hyperbolic (for BB that one!), i would have thought a very rosy future will ultimately be in store

i'll get the dictionary out..

Barclays and Bank of America see looming oil crunch
For oil markets, it as if the Great Recession never happened. Surging demand in China, India and the Middle East is making up for decline in the debt-crippled West, ensuring another global crunch within three or four years.


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 9:32PM GMT 18 Feb 2010
Barclays and Bank of America see looming oil crunch
Members of the Royal Welch Fusiliers charged with protecting oil pipelines in southern Iraq Photo: JULIAN SIMMONDS

Bank of America and Barclays Capital, two leading oil traders, have told clients to brace for crude above $100 (64) a barrel by next year, before it pushes relentlessly higher over the decade. This is a stark contrast from recessions in the 1980s and 1990s, when it took years to work off excess drilling capacity built in the boom.

"Oil has the potential to flirt with $100 this year. We forecast an average price of $137 by 2015," said Amrita Sen, an oil expert at BarCap. The price has doubled to $78 in the last year.

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"The groundwork for the next sustained step up in oil prices is now almost complete. Global spare capacity is likely to be reduced to low levels within a relatively short time. The global economic crisis has postponed, but not cancelled, a crunch which would otherwise be starting to bite now," said Barclays.

Francisco Blanch, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said crude may touch $105 next year, with $150 in sight by 2014. "Approximately 1.7bn consumers in emerging markets with a per capita income of $5,000 to $20,000 are eagerly waiting to buy cars, air-conditioning units, or white goods," he said.

China has overtaken the US as the world's top car market. Mr Blanch expects oil demand to rise by a further 2.8m barrels per day (bpd) in China and 2.5m bpd in India by 2015, when two giants will be absorbing the lion's share of Gulf output. Consumption in the West has already peaked and will fall each year as populations shrink and we waste less, but the West no longer sets the price. Global use will increase by 8.8m bpd to 95m bpd.

Supply is scarce. Sir Richard Branson warned this month that the world faces 'peak oil' within five years. "Don't let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did," he said.

Mr Blanch said output from non-OPEC states is falling by 4.9pc each year, despite Russia's reserves. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates can plug a quarter of the gap, but global spare capacity must soon drop to wafer-thin levels leaving us vulnerable to the sort of "super-spike" seen in 2008. The wildcard is whether Iraq can quadruple output to Saudi levels this decade, a target dismissed by most analysts as pie-in-the-sky.

Painfully high prices are needed to unlock fresh supplies as reserves are depleted in the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Deep-water rigs off Brazil are costly and require drilling far below the seabed. Canadian oil sands and US biofuels have break-even costs near $70. While the US, UK, and the Far East are turning to nuclear power, it takes a decade to build reactors. "peak uranium" lurks in any case.

The oil spike brought the global economy to a shuddering halt in 2008. This time the crunch may hit before the West has fully recovered. Whatever happens, the US, Europe and Japan will soon transfer a chunk of their wealth to the petro-powers. It is a new world order.

cyril

There will come a time in 10, perhaps 15 years time when vehicles will be powered by fuel cells, hydrogen...and such...so this is probably the golden age forthcoming for small oil companies and they have a limited time to get their assets out of the ground. Air travel will probably still be dependent on kerosene for some time. Now I don't want to offend anybody but the airlines should be taxed heavily in the future because they are the biggest carbon burners and it is ridiculous that for thirty quid or so you can fly to southern europe when by car it cost hundreds....it simply cannot carry on like this; the solution has to be a global agreement and believe me : this will have to happen. It might take some time but it will happen.