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AFREN (AFR) Is this the next TULLOW??? (AFR)     

niceonecyril - 04 Apr 2009 08:30

< "> Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=AFR&Siedit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

aldwickk - 01 Mar 2010 15:33 - 882 of 3666

Sold 15% and topped up my holding in CEY & MML, rather invest my 's in gold then oil.

TheFrenchConnection - 01 Mar 2010 16:10 - 883 of 3666

Am inclined to agree Roly ..Nice play ..Gold bellweather -POG - well up on day . Looks like gold is flavour of the day. Already have a bucketful of cey as u know; but wish id topped up last week

HARRYCAT - 02 Mar 2010 19:01 - 884 of 3666

AXA now hold 44,450,247 shares, representing 5.00% of the AFR shares in issue.

halifax - 02 Mar 2010 20:23 - 885 of 3666

Harry 4.1% are indirect shareholdings presumably held on behalf of customers.

TheFrenchConnection - 02 Mar 2010 22:18 - 886 of 3666

nominee holdings becoming the norm now ...years since i held a share certificate

required field - 03 Mar 2010 11:34 - 887 of 3666

Springing into life at last....about time....oil around $80. ....

niceonecyril - 03 Mar 2010 12:14 - 888 of 3666

Could it be anything to do with the fact we will be ftse 250 member this time next week?
cyril

required field - 03 Mar 2010 12:18 - 889 of 3666

Possibly...but Afren are pumping about 27000 barrels as we speak and soon that figure should increase by 15000 or so.

blanche - 04 Mar 2010 16:58 - 890 of 3666

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=AFR&Si

ANOTHER GOOD DAY TOMMORROW WOULD BE NICE. PUSH RIGHT THROUGH 50DMA AND CONFIRM BREAKOUT!!!!

ptholden - 04 Mar 2010 20:04 - 891 of 3666

Err. it's not a breakout until it exceeds 105 on the chart you have posted.

Joe Say - 05 Mar 2010 07:23 - 892 of 3666

MA trends suggest approaching that position rapidly

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=AFR&Si

cynic - 05 Mar 2010 07:33 - 893 of 3666

but PTH comment is still valid, for though 200 dma left well behind - that was ages ago - current point is only 50 dma ....... 100 has always proved a difficult level, and a surge into new high ground above 105 is indeed the key point

blanche - 05 Mar 2010 08:43 - 894 of 3666

I was thinking more of a breakout from a downward trend on my post. Doh!

niceonecyril - 05 Mar 2010 08:58 - 895 of 3666

At the end of the day the charts imo tell us the level of interest,with FSTE next week and results on the 29th March. we see traders waking up to the opportunity, so it rises.

From Nomura,
the brokerage raises Afren (AFR.LN) target to 130p from 122p.

For me with P2 reserves at roughly 160mbo, its the production which is the driving force imo so the results will be of great importence?
cyril

gibby - 05 Mar 2010 09:41 - 896 of 3666

i wouldnt want to be out of afr over the weekend!!

Afren (Buy, target price 130p) - offers an attractive risk reward ahead of results where we expect an audited

reserve update to underpin management's current reserve estimates and more detail on the exploration

prospects planned in 2010 (Ebok Deep and OML 115). Afren could also soon finalise plans to raise US$300m in

debt funding to develop the Ebok field, which is on track for first oil in 4Q10, and ease market concerns over its

current funding headroom. The likely inclusion in the FTSE 250 and All-share indices on 22 March should also

increase liquidity in the shares.

TheFrenchConnection - 05 Mar 2010 13:08 - 897 of 3666

reg todays RNS...Am away from lap/ and phone is blurred and illegible...can someone tell me whether Morgan Stanley have added or reduced ?

kimoldfield - 05 Mar 2010 13:23 - 898 of 3666

They have reduced to below 3% TFC.

TheFrenchConnection - 05 Mar 2010 13:32 - 899 of 3666

thanks kim

niceonecyril - 07 Mar 2010 18:36 - 900 of 3666

Buy Afren at 88p
Says James Faulkner of specialist small cap website WatsHot.com

Afren shares have performed well since my tip back in April at 88p they are up 153% on my tipping price, but despite this cracking performance I still reckon the shares are a buy. I believe we shall see Afren transform itself into a mid-tier producer by the end of 2010, and the geographical location of its assets will make other larger firms stand up and take notice. Afren is set to exit 2010 with daily production of 65,000 barrels per day which, to put things into context, would place it alongside the likes of Tullow Oil and ahead of Cairn Energy, Premier Oil and Dana Petroleum. As I write, the market cap of Tullow Oil stands at 9 billion pounds whereas that of Afren is just 570 million pounds.

Afren was founded in 2004 with the aim of becoming the premier independent pan-African oil exploration and production company. Since its IPO on AIM in 2005 it has built up a portfolio of interests in six countries:Nigeria, Soa Tome & Principe JDZ, Gabon, Congo, the Ivory Coast and Ghana,and is currently producing at a rate of around 27,000 barrels of oil per day, mainly from its Nigerian interests. The company leverages the insight and local clout of its management team to ensure it has the upper hand in its chosen regions through close relationships with governments and through partnerships with indigenous corporations. This provides a low-risk operating model in what is usually considered to be a relatively high risk area. Headed by CEO and industry veteran Osman Shahenshah, the management team is top-notch for an E&P company of this size.

Shortly after my tip in April Afren announced plans for a placing to raise $125 million to finance the early development of the Ebok field. The firm also re-confirmed its intention to seek a listing on the main market. This was an important move because there had been some investor concern over the firms level of gearing and its ability to fund the development of Ebok. The placing was also heavily oversusbscibed. With the funds in place, the development of Ebok will take place in two stages. The initial phase will cost $150 million, with $100 million planned to be spent during the fourth quarter of 2009 and $50 million during the first quarter of 2010. The first phase will be funded by the placing proceeds as well as the firms existing cash pile, and is expected to yield initial production rates of c.15-25,000 bopd. The second phase will see production ramped up to c. 50,000 bopd and will cost $200 million. However, capex for phase two will be spread over 2010 and 2011 at $75 million and $125 million respectively, and it is expected this will be funded from internally generated cashflow.

As I hinted at above, key to Afrens success are its relationships with central and local governments in Africa. In July Afren helped establish First Hydrocarbon Nigeria, a majority Nigerian owned oil and gas company in the indigenous Nigerian Exploration & Production sector. The move came in response to the Nigerian governments objective to increase the level of local participation in the oil and gas sector and is consistent with Afrens strong record of working alongside indigenous companies. FHN will be used as a vehicle to acquire substantial oil and gas assets in Nigeria, including any assets that may be divested by the Nigerian government in future licensing rounds. By attaching itself to this entity, Afren is effectively securing for itself the richest pickings when it comes to divestment.

August saw the extension of Afrens partnership with Oriental Energy Resources Ltd and the signing of a joint venture with Addax Petroleum to develop the Okwok Field, offshore Nigeria and adjacent to, the Ebok field. The move followed a collaborative agreement with Oriental to pursue assets in the region following the farm-in to develop Ebok with Oriental in March 2008. Under the Okwok farm-in agreement, Afren acquired 70% of Addaxs 40% legal interest (28%) in the field. Afren will, solely, fund the drilling of one exploration or appraisal well, after which Afren and Addax will fund field development costs 70% and 30% respectively. Afren will be entitled to 70% of net field revenues (pre cost recovery), reverting to 56% (post cost recovery), subject to gross volumes lifted. Afren estimates that 70 million barrels of oil in place could potentially be produced from Okwok, with exploration having the potential to significantly add to the reserves base and synergies with the Ebok development reducing potential development costs e.g. via joint storage and export.

In September Afrens interims showed just how far the company has come in recent times. Revenues came in at $155.2 million, up from nil last year. Net cash from operations of $98 million was generated, enabling the company to bring net debt down from $287.4 million to $194.9 million. Afren is now on the cusp of transforming itself into a serious regional player. Over the next 12-18 months the firm is looking to prove-up 686 million million barrels through an aggressive appraisal programme. Ebok is due to undergo development drilling in the first half of 2010, while Okwok should follow in mid 2010. From here on out things get very big, very quickly. Edison Investment Research is forecasting turnover of $330 million for 2009 and $650 million in 2010, by which time the PE ratio should fall to around 6 times. Buy, at 88p.

Key Data

EPIC: AFR
Market: AIM
Spread: 87p 89p
cyril

niceonecyril - 16 Mar 2010 16:43 - 901 of 3666

Looks like a 1.2m+ buy after tome?
cyril
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