HELLO,

MY HEART SAYS BUY, MY HEAD SAYS NO!

ANY THOUGHTS?

or alternatively a winner with the demise of woolworth and now Borders gone too - its two biggest competitors off the scene it has "last man standing" status, the only big high street dvd/cd/gaming/bookselling presence !

It also has a rapidly expanding online music operation with its recent acquisitions, and is also diversifying into live music/ sales and cinema. Is CD/DVD/games going to disappear completely from the high street - I very much doubt it - HMV could clean up with most of the main competition out of the way.

crink are they going to beat the supermarkets on the high street, no their days are numbered, have a look at their last balance sheet and you can see the similarities with the deceased woolies.

Anyone see the article in todays London ES about HMV falling into the hands of Private Equity?

City abuzz with talk of HMV searching for a new master

- COULD HMV fall into the hands of private equity?
That was one of the yarns doing the rounds in the Square Mile today, after retail expert Nick Bubb of Arden Partners said that the chains shares look so cheap that it could attract a venture capital suitor.
The entertainment retailer, which also owns the Waterstones chain of bookshops, is now the last man standing on the High Street after rivals Zavvi and Woolworths collapsed. But investors fears about the threat from the internet and s u p e r m a rke t s has c au s e d the shares to struggle. Management are very focused on realising shareholder value and ultimately we expect the market to give the group more of the benefit of the doubt, Bubb said. If not, then HMV will be very vulnerable to a private equity bid. Either way, we target a bounce back to 95p.
Arden has a buy rating on the shares, which ticked up 0.7p to 69.8p.

HMV has rattled market nerves with disappointing fourth quarter sales. UK & Ireland like-for-like sales tumble 13.2% in fourth quarter.

It is blaming the winter weather and tough comparatives but sceptics see deeper problems, with one analyst labelling the shares a "value trap".

The home of the eponymous film and music stores said its HMV UK & Ireland like-for-like sales tumbled 13.2% in the 16 weeks to April 24.

That "reflects very strong comparatives in this period in the previous two years, reduced levels of campaign activity this year combined with the impact of severe weather at the beginning of the period," it claimed.

In a trading statement, HMV says that its group like-for-like sales, which includes the embattled Waterstone's bookselling chain, fell 10.2%. Total sales, which includes a recently acquired chain of live venues, were down 5.8%.

The sales update has overshadowed HMV's prediction that underlying pre-tax profits will be in line with market expectations of 74.5m. The shares are the steepest fallers on the FTSE 250, down 5.1p, or 6.5%, at 74p.

Turning to Waterstone's, which had a torrid Christmas ending in the departure of managing director Gerry Johnson, HMV Group reported an "improved trend", with like-for-like sales down 4.8%.

But some analysts are not so optimistic about any improvements as HMV continues to battle cut-throat competition from supermarkets and online stores as well as changing consumer habits.

Kate Calvert, analyst at Shore Capital, is quoted as saying on Reuters:

"Like-for-like sales decline of 13.2% for the 16 weeks to April 24 is not a pretty number and a massive change on the 1.4% growth reported for the 10 weeks to January 2."

"We view the shares as a value trap as we do not expect its recent diversifications into live music and ticketing to offset the decline of its core business over the medium term."

HMV is heading on a long term downward trajectory. Keep on selling at 58p now.

I can't believe these are paying a 7.4p dividend.

skin remember woolies?

I'm too young :-)

HMV looks interesting with a double bottom.

Wonder if Euroclear have up to date shorting figs.

Yep here they are.................

Well from Euorclear end of June figures for HMV.........

GB0031575722 HMV GROUP ORD 1P 100675368.95 417274471.86 24.12

24.12% being shorted.

This could be one hell of a bull mover of a bottom when shorters close out.

Bugga it, in for a penny in for a pound, Im going long.

Well would you credit it, Nearly a full deck of Broker Buys for this stock.

Forecast P/E of just over 4 for 2011.

looks like a real bargain to me.

Look at that Divi Yield aswell.

HMV Group PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Oriel Securities
05-07-10 UREV 80.80 13.70 7.40 83.60 14.20 7.40

Charles Stanley Securities
05-07-10 BUY 78.00 13.31 7.40 81.00 13.82 7.40

Shore Capital
02-07-10 SELL 81.00 13.80 7.40 76.00 13.00 7.40

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
02-07-10 BUY 75.98 13.01 7.40 81.62 13.98 7.40

Arden Partners
02-07-10 BUY 77.98 13.00 7.40 84.03 14.10 7.40

Singer Capital Markets Ltd
01-07-10 BUY 76.50 12.70 7.40 82.00 13.80 7.40

Seymour Pierce
25-06-10 BUY 80.00 13.30 7.40

Investec Securities
24-06-10 BUY 80.00 13.70 7.40 84.04 14.38 7.40

The Royal Bank of Scotland NV [R]
04-05-10 HOLD 70.89 12.01 7.40

Numis Securities Ltd
29-04-10 HOLD 80.70 13.20 7.40

Nomura Research Institute
19-02-10 BUY

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 78.79 13.15 7.40 82.65 13.98 7.40
1 Month Change -0.61 -0.21 0.00 2.68 0.59 0.00
3 Month Change -2.04 -0.40 0.00 1.65 0.77 0.00


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS 11.31% 4.05% 6.32%
DPS 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA m 129.73m 136.68m

EBIT m m m

Dividend Yield 13.58% 13.58% 13.58%

Dividend Cover 1.71x 1.78x 1.89x

PER 4.31x 4.14x 3.90x

PEG 0.38f 1.02f 0.62f

Net Asset Value PS p p p

Simon Fox, HMV's youthful chief executive, probably has enough on his plate trying to convince a sceptical City that the future for the entertainment chain is bright. But Nick Bubb, retail guru at Arden Partners, warns that the entertainment chain may soon attract an activist investor.

We are disappointed that HMV does not appear to have a Plan B' to boost its ailing share price [such as] a share buyback programme or a corporate restructuring, said Bubb. If they are not planning that then it may not be too long before an activist investors appears on their share register.

However, Bubb is still a buyer of the shares, calling the company's rating derisory, although he has trimmed his target price from 115p to 90p.
City gossips have HMV as a prime candidate for a private equity takeover. Its shares added p to 58p.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23853768-more-talk-of-a-middle-east-bid-puts-sainsburys-at-top-of-the-ftse-list.do

Isn't this sp the Market's split between
1)believing such a good brand will survive and become income-generating
and
2) the belief that no-one will visit their shops to buy overpriced CD/DVD -or whatever, when they can download and pay little, for just the few tracks (sorry, tunes) they really like - perhaps with a sample of "similar" mixes thrown in as a Bonus.

Contrast 2) with the offering I understand comes from within HMV shops - fixed Albums with nearly all the tracks sounding the same (being the same artists) with some actingas "fillers" - if not in my mind - in the mind of others....
Pop music isn't like a Film, that has a "journey" from the start thro' to the finale.
Rather pop music is . . . . . . more like a "finger buffet" where you pick n' mix.

Woah!......pity Woolworths didn't think of that! - they were so near music and already had a Pick'n'Mix name.
Perhaps HMV should team up with Clinton and Moonpig.....that would be a Combination....you heard it here first!

HMV chart starting to look interesting.

Is this the start of an upleg channel. The lower indicators are just about turning positive.

Got some backing from the fundies camp aswell, whats that retail analyst called Nick Bubb?... seem to remember him a week or two back with a 80p plus target I think. dyor.

HMV - Two big recommendations in the Financial Times this weekend.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fb84c9d8-a182-11df-9656-00144feabdc0.html


and

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e1fee1f2-a181-11df-9656-00144feabdc0.html

John Lee's comment in the FT says it all:

"However, in my 50 years of investing, I have rarely come across a more extraordinary valuation of a significant PLC than that currently placed on HMV."

HMV has been a good short 4 me.

DEAD DOG OR NOT?

so far has been a DOG, so stay away is the best way

Inclined to agree, if it looks like-, if it smells like-, - - - - then it probably is. (famous quotqtion - dunno?)
Robert Stanell doesn't think so, for over the past 2-years he's invested 50k + in smaller Buys with an average drop must be over 50% - can't imagine his Misses, is too pleased when he raises a glass over the Xmas festivities.

Now, what should HMV do? (to regain their business position on the high street.). Don't say more records, that's about a dead technology, like selling needles (for audio!) was in the 80's when the CD came in.
Clearly they need a new business strand to keep going, for the Debt is now greater than their Mkt Cap (DYOR), or v.close.

Fell 9% today; does the Market think Xmas sales may be affected by the Snow?. 28p
I don't hold, yet - I usually buy-in just before the Balloon goes up, Ahem.

I dont like the look of it but should it fall to 12p/14p I may decide to buy.

With the use of Ipods, Iphones etc, I don't envisage ever buying a CD again, even DVDs are available online and storage on a memory stick takes up a whole lot less room than a rack of plastic. I don't know if HMV have any sharing agreements with Itunes etc (I think not) but it's hard to see where their future income is coming from. Having siad that I was in a HMV store this afternoon and there was quite a long queue for the checkout (mostly DVDs I think).

whatever happened to "Woolies", history has a habit of repeating itself.