niceonecyril
- 04 Apr 2009 08:30
niceonecyril
- 07 Mar 2010 18:36
- 900 of 3666
Buy Afren at 88p
Says James Faulkner of specialist small cap website WatsHot.com
Afren shares have performed well since my tip back in April at 88p they are up 153% on my tipping price, but despite this cracking performance I still reckon the shares are a buy. I believe we shall see Afren transform itself into a mid-tier producer by the end of 2010, and the geographical location of its assets will make other larger firms stand up and take notice. Afren is set to exit 2010 with daily production of 65,000 barrels per day which, to put things into context, would place it alongside the likes of Tullow Oil and ahead of Cairn Energy, Premier Oil and Dana Petroleum. As I write, the market cap of Tullow Oil stands at 9 billion pounds whereas that of Afren is just 570 million pounds.
Afren was founded in 2004 with the aim of becoming the premier independent pan-African oil exploration and production company. Since its IPO on AIM in 2005 it has built up a portfolio of interests in six countries:Nigeria, Soa Tome & Principe JDZ, Gabon, Congo, the Ivory Coast and Ghana,and is currently producing at a rate of around 27,000 barrels of oil per day, mainly from its Nigerian interests. The company leverages the insight and local clout of its management team to ensure it has the upper hand in its chosen regions through close relationships with governments and through partnerships with indigenous corporations. This provides a low-risk operating model in what is usually considered to be a relatively high risk area. Headed by CEO and industry veteran Osman Shahenshah, the management team is top-notch for an E&P company of this size.
Shortly after my tip in April Afren announced plans for a placing to raise $125 million to finance the early development of the Ebok field. The firm also re-confirmed its intention to seek a listing on the main market. This was an important move because there had been some investor concern over the firms level of gearing and its ability to fund the development of Ebok. The placing was also heavily oversusbscibed. With the funds in place, the development of Ebok will take place in two stages. The initial phase will cost $150 million, with $100 million planned to be spent during the fourth quarter of 2009 and $50 million during the first quarter of 2010. The first phase will be funded by the placing proceeds as well as the firms existing cash pile, and is expected to yield initial production rates of c.15-25,000 bopd. The second phase will see production ramped up to c. 50,000 bopd and will cost $200 million. However, capex for phase two will be spread over 2010 and 2011 at $75 million and $125 million respectively, and it is expected this will be funded from internally generated cashflow.
As I hinted at above, key to Afrens success are its relationships with central and local governments in Africa. In July Afren helped establish First Hydrocarbon Nigeria, a majority Nigerian owned oil and gas company in the indigenous Nigerian Exploration & Production sector. The move came in response to the Nigerian governments objective to increase the level of local participation in the oil and gas sector and is consistent with Afrens strong record of working alongside indigenous companies. FHN will be used as a vehicle to acquire substantial oil and gas assets in Nigeria, including any assets that may be divested by the Nigerian government in future licensing rounds. By attaching itself to this entity, Afren is effectively securing for itself the richest pickings when it comes to divestment.
August saw the extension of Afrens partnership with Oriental Energy Resources Ltd and the signing of a joint venture with Addax Petroleum to develop the Okwok Field, offshore Nigeria and adjacent to, the Ebok field. The move followed a collaborative agreement with Oriental to pursue assets in the region following the farm-in to develop Ebok with Oriental in March 2008. Under the Okwok farm-in agreement, Afren acquired 70% of Addaxs 40% legal interest (28%) in the field. Afren will, solely, fund the drilling of one exploration or appraisal well, after which Afren and Addax will fund field development costs 70% and 30% respectively. Afren will be entitled to 70% of net field revenues (pre cost recovery), reverting to 56% (post cost recovery), subject to gross volumes lifted. Afren estimates that 70 million barrels of oil in place could potentially be produced from Okwok, with exploration having the potential to significantly add to the reserves base and synergies with the Ebok development reducing potential development costs e.g. via joint storage and export.
In September Afrens interims showed just how far the company has come in recent times. Revenues came in at $155.2 million, up from nil last year. Net cash from operations of $98 million was generated, enabling the company to bring net debt down from $287.4 million to $194.9 million. Afren is now on the cusp of transforming itself into a serious regional player. Over the next 12-18 months the firm is looking to prove-up 686 million million barrels through an aggressive appraisal programme. Ebok is due to undergo development drilling in the first half of 2010, while Okwok should follow in mid 2010. From here on out things get very big, very quickly. Edison Investment Research is forecasting turnover of $330 million for 2009 and $650 million in 2010, by which time the PE ratio should fall to around 6 times. Buy, at 88p.
Key Data
EPIC: AFR
Market: AIM
Spread: 87p 89p
cyril
niceonecyril
- 16 Mar 2010 16:43
- 901 of 3666
Looks like a 1.2m+ buy after tome?
cyril
HARRYCAT
- 17 Mar 2010 08:21
- 902 of 3666
London, 17 March 2010 - "Afren plc and its partners Oriental Energy Resources and Amni International Petroleum Development Company, announce the signing of an additional drilling contract with Transocean for the GSF High Island Vll jack-up rig, to carry out planned drilling on their assets located offshore South East Nigeria.
Highlights
u Contract duration up to 210 days
u Day rate of US$84,000
u Expected to mobilise on 24 March 2010 with an estimated five days to tow and jack-up on location
u Necessary drilling resources in place to undertake planned development, appraisal and exploration drilling around Ebok / Okwok / OML 115 and infill drilling at Okoro
u The first well, Ebok Deep, to spud end March 2010"
required field
- 17 Mar 2010 08:33
- 903 of 3666
This'll get the sp going as well...great...
niceonecyril
- 17 Mar 2010 08:54
- 904 of 3666
Yes good news flow over the next couple of weeks,what with joiming the FTSE250 on Monday 22nd and results out on the 29th it's certainly exciting times to come.
cyril
jimmy b
- 17 Mar 2010 15:19
- 905 of 3666
Good day today ,climbing back towards the pound .
blanche
- 18 Mar 2010 08:29
- 906 of 3666
MM`s taking the piss here this morning!
blanche
- 18 Mar 2010 08:41
- 907 of 3666
Hey they love taking out all those little pi stops before a rise.
niceonecyril
- 18 Mar 2010 08:56
- 908 of 3666
I'm a sea of red this am,posibly to with the March positions via spreadbets beig closed?
cyril
blanche
- 18 Mar 2010 09:03
- 909 of 3666
I think we will still finish the day blue though.
ptholden
- 18 Mar 2010 10:16
- 910 of 3666
What have the MMs got to do with it?
AFR is a SETs stock.
MMs are not even anywhere near the Bid or Offer.
Usual lack of knowledge re the stock market and when it goes down let's blame the MMs.
moneyplus
- 18 Mar 2010 11:47
- 911 of 3666
Down boy!!
halifax
- 18 Mar 2010 11:57
- 912 of 3666
deteriorating political situation in Nigeria is not helping the sp.
jimmy b
- 19 Mar 2010 17:28
- 913 of 3666
Huge buying at the end of the day ,,,am i right in thinking it's official FTSE 250 entry on Monday.
jimmy b
- 19 Mar 2010 17:29
- 914 of 3666
niceonecyril ,i just read your post ,it is Monday .
cynic
- 19 Mar 2010 17:30
- 915 of 3666
it's certainly reshuffle day, so i assume with immediate effect
jimmy b
- 19 Mar 2010 17:31
- 916 of 3666
Good , this is one stock i'm hoping to hold on to ,all being well ..
niceonecyril
- 21 Mar 2010 19:39
- 917 of 3666
Some real excitement around the boards,with joinijg the FYSE250 tomorrow,but its the hugh bumder and size of late on Friday,one of over 30mUT. So fingers crossed for a special day's trading?
cyril
HARRYCAT
- 25 Mar 2010 08:52
- 918 of 3666
London, 25 March 2010 - Afren plc has finalized arrangements for a new up to US$450 million reserves based lending debt facility.
"On Wednesday 24 March, a facility agreement for up to US$450 million was executed by Afren. The up to US$450 million of debt, secured against the Ebok field reserves, has a maturity of a maximum of five years, is repayable semi-annually and has a margin of between 4% to 5.5% over LIBOR.
The three Mandated Lead Arrangers and Technical Banks, BNP Paribas, Crit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank and Natixis will support the initial development funding of the Ebok field. Subject to certain conditions being met, the Facility shall extend to the development funding of any subsequent phases of the Ebok field, the Okwok field, OML 115, or other development projects located in Oil Mining Lease 67, offshore Nigeria."
required field
- 25 Mar 2010 08:54
- 919 of 3666
150p by the end of the year....that was my target....it might get there...