ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

That's no excuse....I've got a party to prepare for!!

But Sandra has got her PET shares! We need johngtudor for the charts. What strikes me is that the August pattern was similar with two similar lows around the MA50 mark before the share pulled away. That would suggest that 76p will be tested again. Having said that, it depends who is selling - I somehow doubt it is profit-taking; why do that now? If it is derampers playing games, then they have to buy back the shares they have sold. May know the answer later in the day, or week.

Eric

Did anyone else see the article in The Business at the weekend?

Sad Santa in slow lane as superhighway takes the reins.....the article goes on to discuss how bleak the season is on the high street, but how it's a different story for online retailers,quoting from Forrester Research that Europe will generate 9.1bn in online sales over the holiday period, A 44% increase on last year with growth outpacing the US. The Interactive Media in Retail Group predicts that UK online sales in Nov and Dec. will total 4bn, a 63% increase on last year. Online accounts for 6% of the total 234bn retail market in the UK, but the IMRG expects this to double this year.
The only online retailers mentioned by name were ASOS and then at the end of the article Tesco and Sainsbury.

EWR, when you say BNH may break through the tape first, what do you mean?? What is the challenge and how long does it last for??

Nice sized buy at the end of the day, 200k.

legend

Its not just we senior's who suffer from memory loss. You entered BNH in the ASOS Challenge and would have the satisfaction of winning the plaudits of your peers. I need to check back for the rules myself as you need to be more than double for a couple of weeks I think. The other hope was that we would get the portfolio published in Shares; but it needs to be performing better than it is at the moment!

Yes, Sandra, I thought that was a nice resilient performance today!

Eric

morning all.

it looks as if I have also joined your portfolio by buying MPH about 2 days ago. I am allready a holder of ASC anyway.

question...
ASC - volume only 52500 but shares are up 2 @ 8.35 am. Any clues why?

thanks

Well...this will surprise you...I sold a third of my holding in ASC today.

But, before you all think I've completely lost the plot.....I can hear that sharp intake of breath Eric....I've decided to have a bash at spreadbetting. And what's my share of choice? Yes, you've guessed it....ASC.
I didn't quite have the funds available, or the balls I'm afraid, to do one on PET......now if only I could get that image of Barings Bank out of my head!

Well done sandrew64 you've more balls than me because I dont like the word BETTING in any form. SD

Sandra

Your a girl after my own heart! Did the same but for CFDs. Been reading Kahn's Technical Analysis whilst on the plane over to Vancouver. Have some questions for John about the ASC charts. For SEADOG, all life is a risk! We're always taking bets, some with more risk than others. Tell me what the essential difference between investing and betting is? CFDs, and presumably, spreadbetting, are merely a way of increasing your gearing.

Shock about PET! I hope it is not too disastrous for your portfolio! Although I remember you were in relatively early. I have just posted on the PET bb with the aim of restoring some sanity to the discussion. With the price way down, we really do need some objectivity to try to determine a reaosnable value for the share.

Good luck

Eric

Eric:
Of course all life is a risk, some with more risk than others as you have stated. But IMHO the essential difference between investing and betting is, to invest is to EMPLOY your money in stocks or to put your money into stocks, but to bet is to RISK your money on the RESULT of a DOUBTFUL event. Speculating is again different this is to make an investment in commerce/stocks that involves RISK of LOSS (a doubtful event???). But are not CFDs and spreadbetting merely ways of increasing the Risk??? I hope you dont think I am this negative all the time.
I hope you are enjoying your read, its not one I have read, I am halfway through Murphys for the second time.
I liked your very level headed and stabilising post on the PET bb, its all happening over there.
ASC is my first venture outside the FTSE350 and must thank johngtudor and yourself for the work you both have put in.

SDADOG

Excellent post! Splendid way to start life outside the FTSE350 to invest in ASOS. Just reviewing my performance this year which is somewhat better than breakeven. Have lost on PET (presumably), YOO, EPO and one or two others. All this more than wiped out by ASC gains. The charts are still very positive,my Kahn reading says!. Now, if I had put all my eggs in one basket!

Re the gambling or investing point. My point is that it is more a question of degree rather than kind. Your CFD example is a good one. If I buy ASC shares at 80p and they rise to 100p I gain 25%. If I put the same money into a CFD with 3:1 gearing than I gain 75%. I am EMPLOYING my money more efficiently. I am speculating/gambling (there is downside risk) in each case, but based on skills honed as an investor in each case. Perhaps the language doesn't natter too much.

Eric

ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

Everything gets into better perdpective from abroad. Marvellous place, Vancouver! Easier to bear the disappointments of the vagaries of the stockmarket!

company_________ EPC pp(p) issue-m shares price val. cap-m gain% gain wk

Broker Network H BNH 77.5_ 15.065_ 6450__ 126.5 8159 19.1_ 63.2_ 6.8
ASOS____________ ASC 56___ 67.97__ 8900__ 84.5_ 7521 57.4_ 50.9_ 1.2
Stanelco________ SEO 4.5__ 782.225 111000 6.0__ 6660 46.9_ 33.3_ 9.1
Civilian Comtent CCN 16.25 41.883_ 30700_ 16___ 4912 6.7__ -1.5_ 10.3
Sterling Energy_ SEY 17.25 822.712 29000_ 15.75 4568 129.6 -8.7_ 3.3
Yoomedia________ YOO 22___ 163.313 22700_ 19.75 4483 32.3_ -10.2 -4.8
Marchpole Hold._ MPH 33.75 120.455 14800_ 28___ 4144 33.7_ -17.0 -1.8
cybit holdings__ CYH 1.82_ 988.952 275000 1.4__ 3850 13.8_ -23.1 0.0
CFA Capital Gp__ CFP 0.7__ 619____ 714000 0.45_ 3213 2.8__ -35.7 -18.2
Petroceltic Int_ PCI 15___ 484.975 33300_ 8.75_ 2914 42.4_ -41.7 -12.5
Petrel Resources PET 124.5 58.625_ 4000__ 42.5_ 1700 24.9_ -65.9 -57.5

total__________________________________________ 52123_____ -5.2

Reuters posted a report yesterday that said that the two Iraqi contracts had been awarded to Turkish and Canadian countries. All is confusion as denials from the Iraqi Oil Ministry and the Canadian Company has denied a bid. The market has assumed that PET have not won a contract. The price ahs fallen back to the trend line. Its a wait and see situation.

Added to the general situation with Oil shares and the lack of positive drilling news from PCI and SEY, this makes the portfolio look distressed (not only the investors!)

Is there good news elsewhere? BNH are holding on to most of their gains. ASC are forming a nice stable base before the next advance. SEO are brushing aside the negative situation in the law courts. CCN are recovering a bit of poise after several weeks of sliding. MPH are seen as potential acquirers of Feraud.

Of the others YOO have their EGM on Monday and a bulletin from Evolution is likely to painbt a very rosy picture. This may include significant news of a contract with ITV. Now much more of a heavyweight but they could enter a long bull phase if their leadership of the digital TV marketplace is confirmed. Worth watching.

That just leaves CYH, still in the doldrums after their results, and CFP suffering from no news! OK, portfolio performance is not good overall. But there could be some winners here for 2005. I won't give my own views this week, but why not have some suggestions from this list. The other question I have is - can you spot the ASOS of next year - a share able to double four times over? I suspect it may need to be less than 10m pound cap.

I an getting stuck into Kahn and will be trying to look at the ASC charts to learn some lessons. Quite a frustrating year as I have not enjoyed the net gain I should have done from the success of ASOS. Which is why I feel technical analysis needs to supplement my fundamentals approach.

Eric:
Thanks for the posts. Vancouver, English Bay is indeed a beautiful place, but try and get down to the Chinese quarter, the restraunts and chinese foods are excellent. The shopping is good too.
Don't forget to go walkabout on the return flight and avoid DVT !!!. SD

Eric:
Ref your penultimate para: I will nominate Caledon Resources (CDN). It has a great portfolio of gold properties in China and has made a strategic investment in Afcan, a TSX company. Afcan plans to bring a gold operation on stream in 2006.
I particularly like the amount of surface oxide ore CDN is finding. Anyone in the industry knows that that type of ore can be equivalent to a licence to print money at todays gold price. Downside risk is a significant strengthening of the dollar, having a knock-on effect on the gold price. My short term target is 10p.

iturama

The fascinating thing about iturama is the similarity of the chrat to that of PET. Another case of hype giving way to realism but a still very positve scenario going forward. Will give it a good working over! Thanks!

Eric

johngtudor

In addition to an update on ASC, need a Technical Analyst view on PET, TEP and CDN. Have you the time? Planning to post some questions re ASC based on Kahn - great stuff! I am redefining my position for 2005 as a Fundamentalist in stock selection and a Technical Analyst in terms of timing! Sounds good, anyway!

Eric

interesting article from the independent today. Take a look at the last line "listen out for takeover rumours".........

Eric, hope all is well and the mrs is feeling better.

Small Talk: Fashion retailer Asos beats bigger rivals in style
WH Ireland shines - Uruguay gains - Avanti advance - Anker debut - Toad mulls options
By Stephen Foley

20 December 2004

Small has been beautiful this year. As confidence in the stock market has been gradually rebuilt after the savaging of the bear market of the early part of the decade. More flotations, more trading by private investors and more corporate activity have propelled share prices higher across the board. But the micro-caps - the emerging companies onAIM, the junior market, or, on the full list, too small to make it on to the FTSE Small-Cap index - have outperformed their larger peers by a considerable margin. The FTSE AIM index is up 18 per cent this year and the FTSE Fledgling, which measures the bottom couple of per cent of the main market, is up 18 per cent, compared with a 7 per cent gain in the FTSE All-Share.

In what is likely to be a record month for internet shopping, it seems appropriate to crown Asos as best performing share of the year, with a gain of 1,400 per cent. The online retailer - floated in October 2001 under the longer name of AsSeenonScreen, and chaired by Lord Alli, the founder of Planet 24, the television producer - sells "celebrity fashions", the latest clothes and accessories to have been spotted on the rich and famous.

Whether it be the V-neck jersey dress in the style of Sarah Jessica Parker, Tinkerbell mismatch earrings in the style of Paris Hilton or, a current big seller, the fur/suede mix casual boot in the style of Kate Moss, no sooner has an item appeared on the pages of Heat magazine, then it could be available from the Asos website. More than 420,000 people are registered users of the site, sales in the six months to September were up 72 per cent, and the business is in the black. Next year, listen out for takeover rumours.

Eric:
A speedy recovery for your wife, she is in the best hands, Canadian hospitals are first class. Safe journey home.

Eric, take care and I endorse SEADOG's last commnets. Canadian medical facilities are really good.

As for Kahn does it talk about share liquidity (?)as I think you will find that the technical rules tend to work better on higher volume shares. Having said that I will run through your request later and post before you are up in Vancouver! The cricket has just turned England's way after a finely balanced session! Meanwhile I am still suffering from the PET drama's of Friday when my Broker did not honour the SL!! Be warned, meanwhile I have selected this quote for you Eric:

"As everyone who has ever played the 'Great Game' knows, golf is life. So is investing. The great challenge in golf is not how to hit the ball or how to line up a putt or come out of a sand trap. (re investment: be able to read a report and accounts; read macro). The great challenge is to control the golfer yourself. Its the same in investing: Know your capabilities and resources and play within them." (Eric my personal investment gospel).

I do like your new approach Eric and believe it will lead to better overall returns next year. Remember to keep your trading diary and you will soon see the improvement.

Finally, I do think ASOS will be a takeover target next year and do not think there is currently a premium in the price to reflect this possibility.

John

John