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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Time Traveller - 11 Dec 2007 15:43 - 9167 of 11056

SC, sorry to hear about your troubles. Glad to hear that you're OK.
As for the Traders site, there do seem to be fewer people posting now and maybe it is because there is no "easy" money to be made now that the markets go up and down rather than up. We have had a great run since 2003 and the bull market made it easy for us all. I would imagine that most people want to long a stock for the rise and it is harder to get the mindset into place looking for shorts when they are begging to be taken. I still have that problem but am curing myself slowly. It helps when the shorts make money and proves your decisions correct.
The point about the computerised programme traders is valid. I even saw a prog on TV recently where a new fund management co was redesigning its software to speed up the execution of trades. They said the human was too slow and their new system could identify the trades and complete them in milliseconds. Robotic (bot) trading is taking over and is certainly more prolific that when Croc was monitoring them. This has means that I too am trading the indices as they are being manipulated a bit less than individual stocks. Haven't tried FX yet as it looks far too dangerous for me at the moment although I am sure I could get on the job training through this group if I asked nicely.
TT

foale - 11 Dec 2007 16:18 - 9168 of 11056

TT/ Kyoto some very valid points made there...

we do need to entice some new blood...and also make it worthwhile for the existing ones to keep returning.

Of course everyone wants something differnt. I remmeber a time when there was alot of "long at...." "short at.." and that was criticised for being too dry...as reasons for trades were not included... but now we are at the other extreme where few trades are posted at all

Also many of the more prolific posters have gone...for numerous reasons...

Treblewide - 11 Dec 2007 16:59 - 9169 of 11056

can you lot not get a fecking job...it is q4 and year end...go and sell some software :-).

ps the credit crunch is biting hard...just try getting any banks to fork out any new cap-ex spend and you will soon see...it is a feckin nightmare out there.

it is very close to home but to make some money think about what is the first thing to get scrapped when times are tough?...answer is technology...so look at which vendor/s have the largest exposure to the finance sector....and take positions accordingly...only a matter of time

CC - 11 Dec 2007 17:03 - 9170 of 11056

well i think the lack of activity is largely because

1. there are now very few traders actually left and
2. we aren't that welcoming.

About a month ago I decided to try and learn how to trade FX.
Of course since I'm just beginning at this I don't feel I have much if anything to contribute. I would like to but what is there to say to seasoned veterans ?

Cleary some of my posts have been very naive looking back but that simply reflected the level of knowledge I had at that moment in time. If you were a newcomer to trading this feeling of "feeling like an idiot poster" would have been multiplied a hundred times. there are various ways to learn but one of them is asking questions. I have asked and sometimes I've had no answer. I guess if you are a newbie and you don't get an answer after a few attempts you just give up and move on. It's not like there aren't 100 other fx bulletin boards and chatrooms out there.

Sometimes i've got lots of answers and I thank you all dearly for that - I appreciate every piece of help I can get. Sometimes I haven't understood your answers or even worse thought I did but a week later realised I'd missed the point and in the meantime had asked another idiot question which just made you guys and girls realise I hadn't understood your answer.

The thing is this is what newcomers feel - they need time and tolerance and often need things repeating to them in various ways before it becomes obvious.
I don't think we are very good at it and I include myself in that looking at the advice I have given on the traders thread over the years.
If we don't help the newcomers they will never stay. on the other hand they do of course have some obligation to put some effort in themselves.


i think the level of posting is just likely to fall and fall over time though. Initially it was driven by the explosion of the tech boom and bust and fixed price internet access to say nothing of cmc's cheap commission structure. the traders thread has been killed off effectively by cmc as the minimum trade size necessary to day-trade and cover commission is now too large for the beginner who will blow their pots before they gain enough experience.
that leaves FX and futures. I would like to think I will be around to help the newcomers when I gain a better insight


Sue 42 - 11 Dec 2007 19:04 - 9171 of 11056

I will join in - I used to post more, I liked croc & he is sadly missed. I have given up trading stocks as I'm useless at it but do trade cable now & then but I also work so it's a bit spasmodic.

Seymour Clearly - 11 Dec 2007 22:19 - 9172 of 11056

Just doing a survey on Yahoo:

Listed below is a product description of a Finance website that is planned to be launched very soon. This site will be

A trustworthy financial web site that provides a comprehensive range of financial information on personal finance products and investments. It will allow users to make informed financial decisions based on information from traditional resources such as newspapers and magazines, but also comments, reviews and ratings from other users of the web site.

Using a scale from 1 to 10 where 1 is not at all appealing and 10 is very appealing, how attractive is this product description?

And using a scale from 1 to 10 where 1 is not at all likely to use and 10 is very likely to use, how likely are you to use such a site in the next 12 months?

MightyMicro - 12 Dec 2007 03:02 - 9173 of 11056

Seymour: Sorry to hear about your accident -- but if you're OK, I'm sure your father-in-law's 24 year old BMW can be replaced. Your survival may be down to German engineering.

Wee Trebles all round: You're a bringer of joy to us high techies, aren't you? Merry Xmas to you too, pal.

It's true that things have slowed up on the Traders' Thread, but there is a lot of good stuff on this one. I suspect strongly that this is quite well read by the lurkers: I always read it although I don't post that much. I hang on Hilary's every word, don'tcha know.

I think that the shift simply reflects the difficult markets, as a number of people have observed. Wild horses would not drag me to ADVFN, it seems to be a complete zoo now.

foale - 12 Dec 2007 07:13 - 9174 of 11056

Interesting to see Cable fall on the 1/4% cut...but 2.0350 area seems to be holding it... still feel we could sneak back up to 2.0600 although 2.0475 will probably contain any move today

hilary - 12 Dec 2007 07:52 - 9175 of 11056

I think that CC is right in what he says about helping newcomers. It's not always easy to explain something in words and come across in a manner which can easily be understood. The newcomer may then be reluctant to say that he doesn't understand and the subject will just drop.

This serves to emphasise the point that I was trying to make yesterday about Croc's training courses. There's one thing in explaining something in a 5 or 10 line post on a bulletin board and it's a totally different thing to see that same thing actually happening live on a screen.

All I can say is that if you're lurking and there's something you don't understand, don't be afraid to ask.

The other impression I get is that people seem to think there's something special about trading currencies. There's not!

If you can trade stocks or indices successfully, then you will be able to trade currencies too. If you can't trade stocks or indices, then currencies are not the place to be as you will lose your money at an even faster rate of knots. If you can't yet trade, you need to be on a course somewhere.

mg - 12 Dec 2007 08:25 - 9176 of 11056

Hilsipops
Well said that woman !!

I haven't been posting of late but I have been lurking and it's fascinating to see so many posts on this thread. It looks as if there may be quite a few people turning to currencies because of the problems with stock trading - good move, so long as you do like CC and "learn the trade". For those who are new to it I suppose we need more posts explaining what and why positions have been taken.

For my own part I've been trading currencies for a few years now - after a spell trading the indices - but I still get the red mist and try and fight the market. Just like with stock trading that is the way of the muppet - and FOREX, like Indices is a fast moving way to lose your money.

I notice PTH's post further up where he talks about discipline - you can learn discipline and it is totally within your control - but it's not easy if, like me, you have gambling tendencies - which lead to crazy positions which sometimes pay off - but mostly do not. And taking losses is your own way of saying "my reading of the trend is one way and I have misread it - I'll take the hit, learn from it and move on". The sophistication in takinglosses is at what level and, again, there was a good discussion earlier on about what constitutes an appropriate stop position.

I really do hope that we get a load more successful FOREX traders on this thread and perhaps we should return to posting out positions - with an explanation for having taken them out. However, sometimes the market is so fast moving and/or swinging strongly so that people don't want to post because they are watching like hawks - but mostly there is time to explain.

I'll go back to lurking but will start posting positions again - when I feel like it :)

I am currently long from 20400. Having missed the early move up I entered the trade based on the 1M MACD crossover. Am looking for at least 50 points so may have to go in and out during the day.

mg - 12 Dec 2007 09:28 - 9177 of 11056

Doubled up @ 20 - 1M MACD crossover again.

EDIT - stops for both in at range low of 20390

CC - 12 Dec 2007 09:48 - 9178 of 11056

an update on my journey as they would say on Stricly Come Dancing.

After last week I am demo trading only. Can't see the point of risking real money when I can demo trade until i'm sure I've got a system that works.

I have decided to only trade with a broker which has software which will automatically insert a stop at so many points away determined by me. This should get round my gambling problem as I can't be adding to a position if stops are busy firing instead. Once the stop is in where I want them I only ever move them in my favour. Cancelling stops once they are in is not a problem for me.

I am currently demo trading on metatrader. I have it loaded 3 times and using 2 of them for predermined strategies I have worked out and the third to experiment with new ideas.

Long term I would like to program metatrader (or some other charting package) to give the signals for me by alerts so that I know I am following whatever system I have predesigned. I want to do this so that my trading is as emotionless as possible. i spend too much time looking at the charts being a rabbit in the headlights thinking should I, shouldn't I when actually i shouldn't be debating the decision. Maybe with experience I would do less debating as I will become more sure of myself.
big problem with programming signals is that I cannot see how metatrader would know about trendlines even if I draw them on for it. This might scupper the idea of it giving signals for me completely.


i am spending alot of time trying to work out when to close a trade. Whilst entries might be important I don't think they are half as important as trying to get the best out of a good trade when you are in it. If you don't ever get some really good trades it's death by a thousand cuts as all those little losses just eat into the 30 pip winners. this is the biggest topic I am struggling with particuarly since I've found that if I bring the stop in too close it just gets taken out by some spike or excessive noise.


On my first system I am trying to trade long term. (For a few days minimum). I am using 4 and 1 hour charts. Essentially I am watching the macd on the 1 hour chart and mfi on the 4 hour chart. I am looking for the market to fly off to an extreme which I am measuring with the mfi and also looking for the macd to cross.

At the moment I am short gbpjpy from 229.36 and euryen from 164.63 on my demo account. I've not got stops at breakeven on both.
they had both moved in my favour before the rate decision and I did not close even when they were both well in profit as last night when i looked at them when I went to bed I say no reason to. I did expect some sort of bounce and then it to hit resistance at 38.2% fib but gbpjpy is now heading for 61.8% fib and I'm beginning to think maybe I should have closed.
this is what I mean by tryting to understand where I should close. It doesn't matter at this point whether the entry was well planned, well executed or just plain lucky I just need to find a way to get the best out of it. I think this is a dark art to me at the moment. Any advice on this trade from anyone would be appreciated.


On my second system I am trying to trade the 15 minute chart. I am dong this because I feel I need to do something other than just watch my long term trades. On the 15 minute I might only get a few signals a day across a number of pairs but that will be enough to overcome my boredom and therefore risk of overtrading and making mistakes. I am looking for these trades to last a number of hours although if they progress into something whereby i'm on the right side of the longer timeframes too i'll be happy to sit in them.
Again I am using metatrader because besides it being free I can put my indicators on and there is enough historic data to show whether my potential system is worth investigating or not. unfortunately you can never really tell where you enter the candle on the 15m but it's a huge improvement over watching live data all the time and trying to gain a feel that way.
All I can say so far is that i've elilinated a thousand things that don't work and i have a few ideas mostly surrounding macd that might work. I haven't been able to demo trade enough days to see whether the more hopeful ideas work. I do at least feel I am putting my efforts in in a planned manner now

Divetime - 12 Dec 2007 09:50 - 9179 of 11056

I have been trading fx now for about 4 years but only in the winter as I spend the summer at sea or most of it.

Still finding it hard, been on numerous courses & seminars, spent thousands on them learn about Fibs pivot points Elliott wave moving averages support & resistance etc etc

The one thing I cant get is money management I can find good entrys but when it goes against me, I just cant seem to get out quick enough, keep thinking it will come back but it never does and of course I always take my profits to soon, I used to trade stocks but found it was to slow for me day trading.

For traders just starting out there is a wealth of info on the net for free a good site at the moment for swing trades that work is FX Nation Live, early morning Video briefing with trade set ups
http://www.fxnationlive.com/members/blog/
A very good read and a lot of useful info and trade set ups is 7 Winning Strategies for Trading Forex by Grace Cheng
www.gracecheng.com
www.hariman-house.com/forex

Rob Booker with his strategy 10
www.robbooker.com

Wayne Macdonald Bootcamp Free Videos on You Tube
eedblitz@mail.feedblitz.com

mg - 12 Dec 2007 10:15 - 9180 of 11056

I've now moved my stops up to 415 - a bit tight but it leaves me with a few pips for the 2 trades - compensation for my efforts if I've read it wrong and gives me an incentive to get back at some stage.

EDIT - set at 415 'cos it's the bottom of the recent range since around 09:40 on the 1M

PS - I'm only going to do the running commentary today - it gets a bit boring (for me and others) if I keep doing it.

mg - 12 Dec 2007 10:33 - 9181 of 11056

I'm now looking for what it does around the top of this morning's range - 20445 - if it breaks through then I've read the trend well and it should go on and up. The decision is whether to take profits at or around this level in anticipation of it falling back again - as it has twice today. I would be guaranteed around 80 pips so I may well just take them and look for weakness to buy in to - or just call it a day.

Bugger, I've just looked and I could have taken 45

mg - 12 Dec 2007 10:36 - 9182 of 11056

Taken profits at 455 - so +55 and +35 for 90 pips.

That's enough for today - have a profitable rest of the day folks.

ptholden - 12 Dec 2007 10:37 - 9183 of 11056

mg, nice to see you back from 'lurking' I don't think anyone could ever get bored with your posts :) Hope you're bearing up

mg - 12 Dec 2007 10:44 - 9184 of 11056

Thanks mate - up and down but still here :)

Good to see you're a landlubber for a while - are you at home for Christmas this year?

Looking forward to 2008 - hoping it has fewer surprises than 2007!!

ptholden - 12 Dec 2007 10:49 - 9185 of 11056

Yup, home for Xmas, first time for quite a few years, not sure I wouldn't prefer to be in Rio though :)

Seymour Clearly - 12 Dec 2007 11:01 - 9186 of 11056

Great to see all the discussions and comments on here today.

Have got to get myself a real forex account because even with my small amounts cmc take what seems like an age to execute. Anyone got any recommendations? I've tried and fxcm demo account and they kept ringing me up at the beginning of the year but I wasn't ready then. Spread on cable appears to be 4 pips whereas cmc and most s/b co's is 3.

Oh and regarding trades, just had a quick long from EUR JPY 163.19 to 163.25 whilst I was busy with paperwork.
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