Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

Dilbert,

How many days till the UK decide to stay in the EU?

:o)

https://order-order.com/

Presumably the other 40 something % of Daily Mirror readers didn't know who or what the Prime Minister is???

Another resignation



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/16/brexit-mays-plan-dead-say-tory-remainers-and-leavers-jointly-ahead-of-key-votes-politics-live

And Justine Greening is calling for a second referendum...

You might as well throw in the towel now and opt to stay in the EU before it gets even messier.

:o)

I think the following is a tremendous article. It appeared in my morning paper this morning. It's clearly written, easy to read and extremely thought provoking.

I conclude from reading it, that Theresa May is a strong 'remainer' and is certainly 'stitching us up'.

Deal or no deal? May chose an uninspiring fudge instead
ROGER BOOTLE
Daily Telegraph
15 JULY 2018 • 6:53PM

Theresa May’s Chequers proposal, spelt out in last week’s White Paper, represents an enormous climbdown from what she initially appeared to be aiming for, laid out clearly in her Lancaster House speech in January 2017.

In particular, by tying us in to EU regulatory standards on goods, it would make it difficult to secure Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with other countries, including the United States.

Nevertheless, you could argue that this minimal Brexit is better than nothing, and some Leavers have. But this surely depends upon what the other possibilities are. This deserves the serious analysis that Mrs May and her team have apparently not given it.

There are broadly two options. The first is to accept one of the off the shelf arrangements. The one that most closely accords with achieving a full Brexit, corresponding to what people voted for two years ago, is the recently agreed EU deal with Canada.

This is not ideal for us, but it is pretty good. It might be possible to add some bells and whistles that extend the scope of the agreement, particularly with regard to services. This is what is known as “Canada plus”.

With or without the plus, this would give us tariff and barrier free trade between the EU and the UK while ending free movement of people, the payment of substantial sums of money to Brussels each year and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, while enabling us to sign FTAs with whoever we wanted to.

Interestingly, the EU offered us the Canada deal earlier this year but this was turned down by the Prime Minister, supposedly because it wasn’t ambitious enough and because it would not provide a solution to the supposed “problems” concerning the Irish border. Since then Mrs May’s ambitions have decayed to the delivery of abject surrender while not saying so.

As to the Irish border, it has been clear for some time that these “problems” have been manufactured by the Remain-leaning establishment precisely as a way of blocking off a full Brexit. There is no need for a hard border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland.

It is perfectly possible for goods to move freely across the border, relying on pre-registration and subsequent random checks. There is already a soft border between the Irish republic and Northern Ireland with regard to currencies, duties and tax rates. This would continue.

Of course, it is possible that the EU will not now agree to something like the Canada deal. And the clock is ticking. In that case, there is another perfectly viable option, namely “no deal”. After all, as Mrs May used to say, “No deal is better than a bad deal”. In fact, this “no deal” expression is potentially misleading.

It doesn’t mean that we couldn’t or shouldn’t have a deal on anything with the EU, including landing rights for planes, participation in various joint bodies etc. What it means is simply that we would leave the EU without an agreement on trade, and would operate under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

The WTO option is widely misunderstood. It should hold no terrors for us. We currently do the bulk of our trade with non-EU countries under WTO rules. And if we left the EU without a deal we would not have to hand over the £39 billion “divorce settlement”.

It is possible that the EU will not now agree to something like the Canada deal. And the clock is ticking.

Moreover, the WTO option leaves substantial areas of policy choice, including over what our tariffs are. We could decide to drop tariffs on particular goods but not others; for instance, on cars, which currently incur tariffs at 10 per cent, and/or on car components, where the rate is five per cent. Or we could decide, unilaterally, to drop all our tariffs to zero. We could start to negotiate FTAs immediately. Just because we fail to secure a trade deal with the EU before next March does not mean that we can never secure such a deal.

Indeed, we could put the EU “at the front of the queue” for trade deals. We would be able to conduct these negotiations without the pressures emanating from the ticking clock imposed, arbitrarily and ridiculously, under the Lisbon Treaty.

Of course, trading under WTO rules would still leave the much dreaded “trade frictions” and possible delays at the border as we lose the supposedly huge advantages of Single Market membership. But these frictions have been massively overblown by the UK establishment. WTO rules oblige members (including the EU) to facilitate frictionless trade.

John Mills, the Eurosceptic economist and Labour donor, has come up with estimates of border costs that are a fraction of the official ones. His view is especially worth noting because, unlike the civil servants behind the official view, he runs his own very successful business importing large amounts of consumer goods.

I know whose estimates I believe. Some critics will say that this is all very well for finished goods but not for the businesses that operate complex supply chains.

To listen to them you would think that these only operate within the EU. In fact there are complex supply chains operating across the world, including many countries in Asia. They seem to manage without common currencies, single markets and all the other paraphernalia so beloved by the EU. Meanwhile, umpteen countries around the world sell huge amounts into the EU without being members of the Single Market.

How do they manage to overcome those pesky barriers, I wonder.

Whatever disruptions and difficulties may occur in the immediate aftermath of a full Brexit, this does not represent the final destination. Only when FTAs are in place with a broad swathe of countries, including the US, will we be able to see the full impact.

The argument that we must accept the Chequers fudge just does not add up. Who do they think they are kidding – us or themselves? “There are none so blind as those who will not see.”

Roger Bootle is chairman of Capital Economics roger.bootle@capitaleconomics.com

The problem Maggie Dismay has got, Doc, is that she's running a minority government and she's given MPs a vote on the final Brexit deal. The only deal she's likely to get through the Commons is a soft deal which looks like a betrayal of the electorate. For all Boris' and Moggy's sabre rattling, there's no way that the Commons would vote in favour of the things that the gammon are demanding.

So, I don't think she's stitching the public up as such because she's a remainer. I just think she's got her hands tied.

Shortly after Brexit, my husband and I parked up in the south of France one day. We were driving a UK registered car, and, as we got out of the car, an Irish chap approached us and started asking about the car. The conversation turned to Brexit, and, bearing in mind that Ireland themselves had a second referendum on the Lisbon (I think?) Treaty, he basically said that he thought Brexit would become protracted and that the UK would end up staying. My husband and I both said that would be a betrayal of the will of the British people, and that there would be riots on the streets if Brexit didn't happen.

Two years later on, and I'm starting to think the Irish chap might have been right.....

The Celts are blessed with foresight.

8-)

Except for Dil.

8-(

It does seem to be a bit of a shambles at the moment......nobody seems to know what or which way or how to negotiate with the EU about this blinkin' Brexit....will end with TM resigning …….I fear it's inevitable.....perhaps BJ will become PM...if not back to the polls......perhaps Noel Edmonds ought to take over......deal or no deal.....at the worse you could become the next member of the TM EU one penny club.....

I cannot see BJ ever becoming Tory Leader and am not alone with this view. Neither is the Betfair Exchange who make him only 4th favourite:

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7.6/1
Sajid Javid 8/1
Michael Gove 8.8/1
Boris Johnson 9.8/1

Out of interest, Betfair Exchange seem to feel Jeremy Corbyn is quite likely to stay on until 2020 when the odds show he is most likely to be followed by Emily Thornberry at 7.4/1

Lots of people don't seem to take into account, the fact that Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has never been a government minister, actually has a completely untarnished political ministerial history.

Not that this fact undermines his political procedural knowledge on how things should be done correctly.

As far as I am aware, there is only Anna Soubry who doesn't like him.

:-) Tee hee hee.

Exec,

One of the listed tory MP coming party leader is feasible, but I doubt any of them would be acceptable as a PM other than a short-term pre-general election.

The chance of the tories being re-elected as a government under any of their leadership is very unlikely.

(They seem cartoon characters to the public.)

-=-=-=-=-=

I am not certain, whether the Labour party will be elected as the governing party under JC, but think, at the moment, that it is probable.

I think E Thornberry is unlikely to be Labour party leader. She seems to lack the gravitas or awareness of her "brief" at the present time.

-=-=-=-

But there is a dearth of outstanding statesmen/women in any of the political parties in the UK at the moment.

(Although Nicola Sturgeon does fit the bill.)


-=-=-=-=

But I think a coalition government of Labour and Lib/Dems with the support of SNP is on the cards.

-=-=-

Here's a strong piece of journalism from Sputnik.....

(Following his recent resignation as Foreign Secretary, I believe Boris has been given special permission to speak by the Speaker and is scheduled to speak in the H of C at around 3pm today)

Boris, Hit May for Six Please!
Sputnik
13:58 18.07.2018
by Jon Gaunt

Today has to be the day that Boris Johnson steps up to the crease and bowls out Theresa May for the dead duck she is.

This useless woman has been clinging to power and batting away all criticism for far too long and has consequently dragged the UK into the outfield of European and world politics.

Yesterday she attempted to whack away any criticism from backbenchers who were going to vote against her with the threat of an election, deselection for them and a Corbyn government. This was the action of a deluded fool and a tin-pot dictator.

It was the action of a desperate woman who is proving time and time again she is not a team player but only interested in her own position and staying at the crease despite the facts showing that her tactics (if she has any) are wrong time and time again.

I use the cricket metaphor as it is so apt as Boris now has to play the part of Geoffrey Howe, whose resignation speech ended Maggie Thatcher’s time at number 10.

The Iron Lady was bowled for six by Howe just days after she made that famous speech at the Mansion House saying, “I am still at the crease, though the bowling has been pretty hostile of late.”

Howe responded in his resignation speech saying, "It's rather like sending our opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find before the first ball is bowled, that their bats have been broken by the team captain…..The time has come for others to consider their response to the tragic conflict of loyalties with which I have wrestled for perhaps too long."

This was the beginning of the end for Thatcher.

Today, Boris has to bat for the whole of the UK and not just his party and certainly not just for himself, which is his usual playing style.

Enough, the simple plain facts are May has to go and she has to go now. We should feel no sympathy for her as she has proved time and time again she is no Iron Lady, no Mrs. Thatcher.

Who can forget Maggie Thatcher’s tears at the window of Number 10 when she knew her time was finally up. I felt great sympathy for her but I will be crying with laughter if May goes today.

Yesterday was not just a day of high drama in the Commons it was a day of melodrama and actually an insult to every voter in the UK.

Andrea Leadsom’s suggestion that the Commons could go on holiday early just to avoid Boris making his resignation speech and thereby saving May’s scrawny neck was an absolute smack in the teeth to every working man and woman in the country.

Just imagine if you had messed up in your job and your reaction to your boss was, “I’m off on holiday before you can give me the rollicking?” The result would be that you would be looking for a card with a letter P and a number between 44 and 46!
I am joking but this is no laughing matter and the fact that it was Leadsom who put forward this idea is just a further illustration that the elite are not doing what we instructed them to do in the EU Referendum. Leadsom, for god’s sake, was meant to be a Brexiteer!

Labour are no better as they are also putting their party before the country.

This self-serving madness of the Elite has to stop and that must start with Boris becoming Brutus and knifing Theresa May in the back and front. I want it to be bloody, I want it to be nasty and I want it to be final. She must go today.

As I suggested, a few weeks ago, we need a Brexiteer in number 10 and a cabinet stuffed full of people who voted to leave and this must include Nigel Farage in an advisory role.

Nothing else will satisfy the 17.4 million who voted for Brexit. Don’t believe me? Well just take a quick look at the rising numbers who are joining UKIP. The people have had enough of this nonsense.

Quite frankly I am bored to the back teeth with Brexit and I reckon most people in the UK feel like me. Why has it all been so bloody difficult and complex?

It should have been easy, we gave them a mandate to get us out of the EU. We knew what we were voting for, it was to get our country back and control our borders and make our own law.

What we didn’t vote for was for the elite to drag their feet or pretend that we the masses didn’t know what we are voting for. We absolutely knew what we were voting for but those in power just didn’t like our decision.

Instead of thinking about extending their summer holidays M.P.’s should be kept at Westminster until they sort out this Brexit mess.

“Drunker Juncker” must be laughing his “proverbial” off at this nonsense as it is clear May has now blown any chance of us having any real negotiating position with the EU.

So, this is why I want Boris to go in today with his bat swinging.

I want him to knock May for six, I want his team (The Tories) to get behind him and I then want him to hit the EU to the boundary and tell them in no uncertain terms that there is a new man at the crease and he is no longer playing by their rules.

Do you agree?

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Sputnik's position.

252days to go Hils , woo hoo

And the absolute bolloxs I'm hearing from self proclaimed on just in time deliveries falling apart if we don't get a deal is absolute nonsense and more scaremongering by remoaners.

One clown even claimed that goods were delivered to a factory , worked on , then returned on the same lorry an hour later !

Yeah right , there is no way that ever happens , wouldnt be cost effective for starters.

Ffs cant these idiots work out that if it takes 12 hours to get from A to B now 16 hours if we have checks at the port then the lorry needs to leave 4 hours earlier !

Its not bloody rocket science.

Would suggest those interested in the future possibilities of "Brexit" view John Major's to-day's interview by Andrew Marr:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0bc9qqt/the-andrew-marr-show-22072018

Mr Major set off the chain of events when signing the Maastricht treaty.

I am getting to the point believing the result will be annulled.

We then enter a period of violence.