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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

boxerdog - 13 Sep 2006 17:56 - 927 of 1009

Fred i think it may be the 20th.

Fundamentalist - 14 Sep 2006 00:31 - 928 of 1009

Still around Fred

well theyre dragging this one out. results next week should provide an update both in terms of business progress and what is happening with the proposed takeover. May also see further clarification re the patent issue.

The results i would guess will be slightly ahead of expectation (they always are!) though i would guess neither that or the new contracts will be of relevance to the market( or at least SP) until the takeover situation is resolved - hopefully the statement isnt "discussions are still ongoing but taking slightly longer than expected" - at that stage id be re-examining the fundies

Saying that wouldnt be wholly surprised to see a deal announced a day or two before the interims

Fred1new - 15 Sep 2006 13:48 - 929 of 1009

Looking at RNS, it would seem that somebody has bought about 2.5 million longs in RTD.


"""""""""""#



Retail Decisions PLC
15 September 2006


RETAIL DECISIONS PLC (the 'Company')


NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR INTERESTS IN SHARES



1. Name of listed company


RETAIL DECISIONS PLC



2. Name of shareholder with a major interest


MAN FINANCIAL LTD



3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is regarding the holding
of the shareholder named in 2 above; in respect of a non-beneficial interest; or
in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's spouse
or children under the age of 18


AS ABOVE



4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of
shares held by each of them


NOT INFORMED



5. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired


N/A



6. Percentage of issued class (any treasury shares held by the listed company
should not be taken into account when calculating percentage)


N/A



7. Number of shares / amount of stock disposed


N/A



8. Percentage of issued class (any treasury shares held by the listed company
should not be taken into account when calculating percentage)


N/A



9. Class of security


ORDINARY 5P SHARES



10. Date of transaction


INTEREST AS AT CLOSE OF BUSINESS 13 SEPTEMBER 2006





11. Date listed company informed


14 SEPTEMBER 2006



12. Total holding following this notification


2,447,003



13. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification (any
treasury shares held by the listed company should not be taken into account when
calculating percentage)


3.13%



14. Any additional information


N/A



15. Name of contact and telephone number for queries


RICHARD AMOS

(01483) 728700



16. Name and signature of duly authorised officer of the listed company

responsible for making this notification


RICHARD AMOS

FINANCE DIRECTOR



Date of notification


15 SEPTEMBER 2006






Fred1new - 15 Sep 2006 13:51 - 930 of 1009

I didn't think Douggie would do something like that without telling me first.

Douggie - 16 Sep 2006 11:34 - 931 of 1009

2 true Fred I would seek your advice and ask 4 your pemision .... ;o\

Douggie - 19 Sep 2006 10:50 - 932 of 1009

what the hell is going on !!! ????????????? .... :-{{

Fred1new - 19 Sep 2006 11:02 - 933 of 1009

douggie, I would like to tell you, but

























I don't know unless it is the results are out to-morow!!!!!

Fundamentalist - 19 Sep 2006 11:15 - 934 of 1009

looks like something has leaked

optomistic - 19 Sep 2006 11:19 - 935 of 1009

Hell of a leak!

storergroup - 19 Sep 2006 11:37 - 936 of 1009

leak???? the bloody dam's burst on us!! :((

bristlelad - 19 Sep 2006 12:46 - 937 of 1009

NO GAIN//WITHOUT PAIN?????

Fred1new - 19 Sep 2006 13:20 - 938 of 1009

Capitalisation of company about 130 million. To days traded so far about even Steven at about 650 000 shares.

Now unless is dumping behind the scenes I think this is pre result jitters. (I Hope)

I will sweat it out!!!!!!

boxerdog - 19 Sep 2006 14:54 - 939 of 1009

Could it be the current SP.now has no take-over value factored into its price ,what were now left with is a SP.With a good set of interims instead factoed in?.

Fundamentalist - 20 Sep 2006 09:20 - 940 of 1009

Morning all

so the bid process is ongoing with no update and also nothing further on the cyberspace situation

interims results to me were acceptable but nothing special. as i have mentioned before, my biggest concern is in the CNP business, where the organic growth was supposed to be coming from yet turnover has declined again (although profit slightly up). More and more the company has become a fuel card operator with a fraud business on the side (which in my mind makes it a utility style company not the high tech business it was). fuel card performance is still strong, though notably the margin from fuelserve is significantly lower than from the aussie side.

Interesting the first few highlights from the results:

Net revenue up from 14.7m to 22.9m which includes acquisitions rev of 8.4m - so revenue on existing operations has fallen 0.2m (growth is purely acquisition based!)

Dont expect these results to have much impact and there is certainly no explanation for the share price shenanigans yesterday. Certainly in the short term the SP will be driven purely on whether a formal bid is made and accepted/declined and/or any potential takeover goes hostile

Douggie - 20 Sep 2006 10:42 - 941 of 1009

here we go again more misery ... ;-{{

storergroup - 20 Sep 2006 10:45 - 942 of 1009

TIMBERRRRRRRR!!!! :((

pachandl - 20 Sep 2006 11:25 - 943 of 1009

Reasonable (albeit not spectacular) results. Rather disappointed by cnp business - perhaps a number deciding to sell because the present business does not represent their preferred area of investment. Still uncertain as to how many interested parties RTD is dealing with. Expectations of a take-out price are now lower than they were a week ago. 200/210p seems the most likely price if a deal goes ahead. Best of luck to all (I continue to hold).

Fred1new - 20 Sep 2006 12:04 - 944 of 1009

The only positive note to the price drop back is the small volume attached to it.

I think many are fed up with waiting for a decent advancement of price and moving on.

I think I will still wait and see, even considered buying a few more on further retracement.

Fred1new - 20 Sep 2006 12:12 - 945 of 1009

Rereading the reports the following is them important bit for me:-

UPDATE ON BID PROCESS

On 4 July 2006, the Board announced that it was in discussions with a number of
parties which may or may not lead to an offer to acquire the entire share
capital of the Company. A further announcement on 1 September indicated that
the process continues and this remains the case. As previously explained, there
can be no certainty that a formal offer will be made nor the terms on which any
such offer might be made. In light of the above, the results for the period to
30 June 2006 include an exceptional cost of 0.2m for associated fees incurred
to the end of June.

=========


I sometimes wish this company wouldn't hold its cards so close to its chest.

The next month should bring further information.

boxerdog - 20 Sep 2006 12:41 - 946 of 1009

Based upon what can be described as anything between acceptable and good, are the interim results not capable of supporting a SP. of a mere 1.55p. old 31p Without the support of the ongoing takeover speculation. If this is not so where will it decend to if a bid fails to materialize?.back to the 1.30s .
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