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Coffee Heaven - A heavenly share for penny punters ? (COH)
overgrowth
- 06 Oct 2003 22:47
 A
busy day in the Warsaw Underground ! |
Not just another coffee shop chain - this one is a brand leader and is only trading in Eastern/Central Europe (i.e. the countries recently admitted to the EU destined for substantial business growth). The company is creating new outlets at a fair old pace and take a look at their website - these are quality stores in high-profile locations like major airports, railway stations etc. Website: http://www.coffeeheaven.eu.com |
|
APRIL 2006 TRADING UPDATE!!! Total Gross Revenues for 12 months to 31st March up 66% to £6.3M (2005: £3.8M) Lots more info. on new markets and stores click here to read the full details. Stores: 43 (up from 32) stores currently trading (Poland: 30 (up from 23), Czech Republic: 6 (Up from 2), Latvia: 7 with a further 5 units under construction including Bulgaria and sites secured in Romania (subject contract). Bulgaria & Romania are seeking to join the EU from January 2007. Sites located in key high street, shopping malls or Airport locations. Company growth target: increase number of units by at least 20 units to some 63 units by 31 March 2007. Aim being to achieve this level of growth within present Cash resources.Cash balances at 31 March 2006 were approximately £2.9M (2005: £0.7M). Debt was nil (2005: £ 2.5M): Nil Debt! Positive EBITDA: For the year ending 31 March 2006, Group EBITDA expected to be firmly positive after charging UK and new market development costs but before exceptional costs relating to the cancellation of bonds (previous Debt). Forecasts: Based on present trading conditions and current exchange rates we anticipate indicative sales of £9.3M for the year to 31 March 2007. This includes indicative sales of £0.4M from Bulgaria, which will be reported but not consolidated. From Richard Worthington (Chairman and Chief Executive): ‘The new financial year has started well. There is no doubt that the significant economic improvement in our markets is feeding through to consumer confidence and spending. The strength of the coffeeheaven brand ensures we are ideally positioned to benefit from our customers' increasing prosperity.’ |
proteus - 30 May 2007 10:02 - 932 of 2037
10B
If you give no figures you have no credability.Do you want more help ? Don't sulk,as someone from the education field you should know the benefits of being educated.
cynic
No problem,I don't know which way it will go but at least an analysis helps.On what basis to you state it will go belly up or CFE for that matter?
If you give no figures you have no credability.Do you want more help ? Don't sulk,as someone from the education field you should know the benefits of being educated.
cynic
No problem,I don't know which way it will go but at least an analysis helps.On what basis to you state it will go belly up or CFE for that matter?
David10B
- 30 May 2007 11:26
- 933 of 2037
No need for further comment, kindly use the NUMIS figures and then deduct 99%
proteus - 30 May 2007 11:29 - 934 of 2037
Come now 10b do you understand percentages or do you need a little more help.% is not just a button you press on a calculator. Do you need help with the concept of averages I can help there as well.
David10B
- 30 May 2007 11:47
- 935 of 2037
no real need for further comment is there as you will not be expounding upon anything that is not already well within the public domain!
However, please carry on if you wish.
However, please carry on if you wish.
proteus - 30 May 2007 11:58 - 936 of 2037
OK I agree we can only discuss what's in the public domain or do you have other information ? Now taking your figure of 99%,that means your estimate is 1% of the Numis value for NPV - That's net present value.They calculate 66p / share so your figure is 0.66p / share.At the last set of results they had cash equivalent to 2.5p / share.Surely they cannot be worth less than their cash. Do you need help with your calculations ,they're not difficult you know ?
David10B
- 30 May 2007 12:05
- 937 of 2037
Nice one, but dont over look that its not their cash, hense my figure.
So how do you calculate your NPV on actual earnings or cash calls.
I really would welcome you calculations.
So how do you calculate your NPV on actual earnings or cash calls.
I really would welcome you calculations.
proteus - 30 May 2007 12:12 - 938 of 2037
It's their cash in the same way that any company BP,VOD etc hold cash.Do you need help with the concept.If you're struggling I'll try to find a reference to NPV if you want ?
ptholden
- 30 May 2007 12:17
- 939 of 2037
proteus,
It is impossible to converse with a committed basher, especially one who has no interest in the stock other than to 'hack away'. By doing so you only offer the opportunity for further nugatory dialogue. 10B has little or no knowledge of the markets, doesn't do fundies nor TA. Effectively he feeds off BB posts, copying and pasting to suit, leaping onto whatever bandwagon happens to be rolling by. Best thing you can do is press the squelch button and ignore him.
pth
It is impossible to converse with a committed basher, especially one who has no interest in the stock other than to 'hack away'. By doing so you only offer the opportunity for further nugatory dialogue. 10B has little or no knowledge of the markets, doesn't do fundies nor TA. Effectively he feeds off BB posts, copying and pasting to suit, leaping onto whatever bandwagon happens to be rolling by. Best thing you can do is press the squelch button and ignore him.
pth
David10B
- 30 May 2007 12:21
- 940 of 2037
but thats my very point, and thank you!
You can not compare LFL, a company that earns its money to on who takes it off the shareholders.
Nett earnings offer a track record to work from, cash calls blankett a lot of things
In other words a valuation based upon Cash Calls gives you nothing.
You can not compare LFL, a company that earns its money to on who takes it off the shareholders.
Nett earnings offer a track record to work from, cash calls blankett a lot of things
In other words a valuation based upon Cash Calls gives you nothing.
David10B
- 30 May 2007 12:26
- 941 of 2037
Well said Mt Holden well said, its nice to realise that COH shareholders are blinded to learning anything.
Thats why they were in a state of shock when the price fell, while I was content that it was simply following my predictions.
The day gets better.
Thats why they were in a state of shock when the price fell, while I was content that it was simply following my predictions.
The day gets better.
David10B
- 30 May 2007 12:41
- 942 of 2037
You really should all note that the only research that I follow is for value, plain simple, old fashioned intrinsic asset backed value.
Modern day anacronyms and their application mean nothing, absolutly nothing to me.
Modern day anacronyms and their application mean nothing, absolutly nothing to me.
proteus - 30 May 2007 13:09 - 943 of 2037
As far as I remember due to writing off goodwill VOD has not made a profit at one level.You're saying therefore they're worthless.You really need some help ,why don't you ask as a teacher you should know that.Now how about justifying your 0.66p value for the benefit of the readers.
David10B
- 30 May 2007 13:20
- 944 of 2037
Yes but thats my point, how do put a hard cash value on good will?
Clearly goodwill is one of the most manipulative intangibles in the whole accounting process.
You must have a good earnings yield and this is where I use the ratio of a pre tax operating earnings, or as you would say EBIT to the whole enterprise value which of couse is the SP. I prefer using this ratio to the P/E as that can be manupulated at will.
To me its all rather a simple exercise to find out how much the business is actual worth, ie how much it really earnt in hard nett, relative to the purchase price of the business.
It gets a little more deeper if you wish to delve further. But basically ask your self what did the COH shareholders pay for the business and what return on capital employed are they getting today?---its not a pretty answer using my valuation methods.
But I am not here to gamble,and with the current "flexible" accounting rules and a stagnant FSA, you really need a very shap pencil, if you are of course playing to win.
If you are a gambler then of course that moves the goalposts.
Clearly goodwill is one of the most manipulative intangibles in the whole accounting process.
You must have a good earnings yield and this is where I use the ratio of a pre tax operating earnings, or as you would say EBIT to the whole enterprise value which of couse is the SP. I prefer using this ratio to the P/E as that can be manupulated at will.
To me its all rather a simple exercise to find out how much the business is actual worth, ie how much it really earnt in hard nett, relative to the purchase price of the business.
It gets a little more deeper if you wish to delve further. But basically ask your self what did the COH shareholders pay for the business and what return on capital employed are they getting today?---its not a pretty answer using my valuation methods.
But I am not here to gamble,and with the current "flexible" accounting rules and a stagnant FSA, you really need a very shap pencil, if you are of course playing to win.
If you are a gambler then of course that moves the goalposts.
proteus - 30 May 2007 14:00 - 945 of 2037
OK,what's it worth with figures if it's a simple exercise why are you so shy in producing them ?
David10B
- 30 May 2007 14:05
- 946 of 2037
I thought I had.
99% of the Numis guestimate, and thats being kind as there is no tangible asset backing.
COH is currently valued on its forward sales projections and no one here is prepared to take into consideration declining revenues, despite increasing accounts of the impending competition.
99% of the Numis guestimate, and thats being kind as there is no tangible asset backing.
COH is currently valued on its forward sales projections and no one here is prepared to take into consideration declining revenues, despite increasing accounts of the impending competition.
proteus - 30 May 2007 14:13 - 947 of 2037
Perhaps you can point to the declining revenues.The latest statement shows LFL growth of 28%.A quick look at VOD shows an EBIT loss of 2.4 bn last year and 14.9 bn the year before.By your logic they're worthless. Did you teach economics I guess not.If that's your logic you shouldn't be risking teachers money on shares.If you're working from flawed analysis you could end up in something like BKE.So is your .66p a complete guess or does it have some figures behind it ?
bmw325 - 30 May 2007 14:28 - 948 of 2037
proteus
I like the reference to BKE...LOL.
I like the reference to BKE...LOL.
David10B
- 30 May 2007 14:32
- 949 of 2037
Kindly read what I say. I did not say there were declining revenues.
What I said was that the prospective LFL sales are on the increase and are the current allbeit flawed basis for the present valuation,
What I clearly said was none that here are considering, or even prepared to consider the impending flow of the new round of competition which will obviously dilute COH's revenue.
You are right on one thing though, I certainly believe that they are worthless for my investment requirements and perhaps that is why EMPIK dumped them.
Who knows?
What I do know is that there is better and safer value elsewhere.
Meanwhile you can play all you like with the figures that COH have provided, without a basis in nett profit they too are worthless, for me at least.
What I said was that the prospective LFL sales are on the increase and are the current allbeit flawed basis for the present valuation,
What I clearly said was none that here are considering, or even prepared to consider the impending flow of the new round of competition which will obviously dilute COH's revenue.
You are right on one thing though, I certainly believe that they are worthless for my investment requirements and perhaps that is why EMPIK dumped them.
Who knows?
What I do know is that there is better and safer value elsewhere.
Meanwhile you can play all you like with the figures that COH have provided, without a basis in nett profit they too are worthless, for me at least.
bmw325 - 30 May 2007 14:52 - 950 of 2037
MLR down again today...never mind eh.
David10B
- 30 May 2007 15:07
- 951 of 2037
No Sir not in the least its a long term punt, been in since under 7p.
CAN ONLY GO WAY BUT AS YOU KNOW THAT IS NEVER IN A STRAIGHT LINE.
Do yourself a favour old boy, and have a punt you wont regret it.
But then that said, BPK is nicely up from the low 500s.
Thats the Pharma game for you
CAN ONLY GO WAY BUT AS YOU KNOW THAT IS NEVER IN A STRAIGHT LINE.
Do yourself a favour old boy, and have a punt you wont regret it.
But then that said, BPK is nicely up from the low 500s.
Thats the Pharma game for you
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