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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

boxerdog - 19 Sep 2006 14:54 - 939 of 1009

Could it be the current SP.now has no take-over value factored into its price ,what were now left with is a SP.With a good set of interims instead factoed in?.

Fundamentalist - 20 Sep 2006 09:20 - 940 of 1009

Morning all

so the bid process is ongoing with no update and also nothing further on the cyberspace situation

interims results to me were acceptable but nothing special. as i have mentioned before, my biggest concern is in the CNP business, where the organic growth was supposed to be coming from yet turnover has declined again (although profit slightly up). More and more the company has become a fuel card operator with a fraud business on the side (which in my mind makes it a utility style company not the high tech business it was). fuel card performance is still strong, though notably the margin from fuelserve is significantly lower than from the aussie side.

Interesting the first few highlights from the results:

Net revenue up from 14.7m to 22.9m which includes acquisitions rev of 8.4m - so revenue on existing operations has fallen 0.2m (growth is purely acquisition based!)

Dont expect these results to have much impact and there is certainly no explanation for the share price shenanigans yesterday. Certainly in the short term the SP will be driven purely on whether a formal bid is made and accepted/declined and/or any potential takeover goes hostile

Douggie - 20 Sep 2006 10:42 - 941 of 1009

here we go again more misery ... ;-{{

storergroup - 20 Sep 2006 10:45 - 942 of 1009

TIMBERRRRRRRR!!!! :((

pachandl - 20 Sep 2006 11:25 - 943 of 1009

Reasonable (albeit not spectacular) results. Rather disappointed by cnp business - perhaps a number deciding to sell because the present business does not represent their preferred area of investment. Still uncertain as to how many interested parties RTD is dealing with. Expectations of a take-out price are now lower than they were a week ago. 200/210p seems the most likely price if a deal goes ahead. Best of luck to all (I continue to hold).

Fred1new - 20 Sep 2006 12:04 - 944 of 1009

The only positive note to the price drop back is the small volume attached to it.

I think many are fed up with waiting for a decent advancement of price and moving on.

I think I will still wait and see, even considered buying a few more on further retracement.

Fred1new - 20 Sep 2006 12:12 - 945 of 1009

Rereading the reports the following is them important bit for me:-

UPDATE ON BID PROCESS

On 4 July 2006, the Board announced that it was in discussions with a number of
parties which may or may not lead to an offer to acquire the entire share
capital of the Company. A further announcement on 1 September indicated that
the process continues and this remains the case. As previously explained, there
can be no certainty that a formal offer will be made nor the terms on which any
such offer might be made. In light of the above, the results for the period to
30 June 2006 include an exceptional cost of 0.2m for associated fees incurred
to the end of June.

=========


I sometimes wish this company wouldn't hold its cards so close to its chest.

The next month should bring further information.

boxerdog - 20 Sep 2006 12:41 - 946 of 1009

Based upon what can be described as anything between acceptable and good, are the interim results not capable of supporting a SP. of a mere 1.55p. old 31p Without the support of the ongoing takeover speculation. If this is not so where will it decend to if a bid fails to materialize?.back to the 1.30s .

boxerdog - 20 Sep 2006 13:14 - 947 of 1009

Nice to see Barclays amd ML. increase their interests.

Douggie - 21 Sep 2006 11:16 - 948 of 1009

& the misery lingers on ...... ;-/.

pachandl - 22 Sep 2006 10:28 - 949 of 1009

So its goodbye to Peter Laing. Well, he never seemed to respond to investor enquries anyway so his departure was probably on the cards.

storergroup - 22 Sep 2006 11:26 - 950 of 1009

any thoughts on the blue today??
very small volume for the sp to go up 6 points??

Douggie - 22 Sep 2006 11:52 - 951 of 1009

.... shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.... ;o|

pachandl - 22 Sep 2006 14:12 - 952 of 1009

How on earth can it be 9p up on such low volume? Presumably because it will end up 1p by the end of the day, unless there is some mystery buyer (well, you can dream!).

Douggie - 22 Sep 2006 17:26 - 953 of 1009

in the words of Rosie Clooney .... 'they only build us up to let us down' ... ;-/

a unfair bit of frustration to endure yet ...!!

storergroup - 28 Sep 2006 10:00 - 954 of 1009

so two seperate buys of 400,000 and 373,000????
any ideas?? maybe news on the horizon of the takeover bid??

Douggie - 28 Sep 2006 10:30 - 955 of 1009

keeping fingers Xxxd ..... but not counting chickens ....had a good basket of eggs and seen them broken/go bad too often ...... ;o\

55011 - 28 Sep 2006 10:32 - 956 of 1009

Well, at least it has gee'd things up a bit.

Fundamentalist - 28 Sep 2006 11:49 - 957 of 1009

Huge volumes in big chunks changing hands today - volume over 2m before midday

Fundamentalist - 28 Sep 2006 14:31 - 958 of 1009

Retail Decisions PLC
28 September 2006





28th September, 2006



For immediate release





Retail Decisions plc (the 'Company')



Statement re: Share Price Movement





Retail Decisions plc, the payment card issuer and a world leader in card fraud
prevention and payment processing, notes the recent share price movement.



The Company can confirm that it is in advanced discussions which may or may not
lead to an offer being made for the entire share capital of the Company.



A further announcement will be made shortly.
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