Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

gavdfc
Thanks :-)

Driver

as gav says - bad news and hence the fall in share price - dare say it will get worse when DNX release an RNS - there again interims due in a fortnight

Gav - were you referring to Gabon being dry for SEY or another dry well?

Driver, you're welcome.

Fundy, yup, Iris Marin 1 in Gabon only found water, plugged and abandoned. Also yesterday, Espadon 1A through HNR in Mauritania, another plugged and abandoned.

Seems to me like DNX holding up well so far today, but stil no RNS yet. Would have thought we would have got one first thing this morning. Looking forward to the interims, Tullows results today were good. Alves even rated them a buy this morning!

PRESS RELEASE

DANA PETROLEUM PLC ('Dana' or 'the Company')

SUCCESSFUL APPRAISAL DELIVERS NEW GAS AT JOHNSTON FIELD

DRILLING UPDATE


Dana Petroleum is pleased to announce that the 43/27a-4 well, being drilled to
appraise the south-eastern area of the Johnston gas field in the UK Southern
North Sea, has been successful. The initial vertical pilot hole found gas
bearing sandstones in both the Rotliegend and Carboniferous horizons. The well
was then sidetracked to drill a 2,850 feet horizontal section through the most
productive Rotliegend reservoir section to provide an optimum offtake point for
additional gas production.

The horizontal well has now been completed and will henceforth be known as the
J4 producer. Well J4 has been production flow tested back to the Noble Julie
Robertson drilling rig at rates of approximately 55 million cubic feet of gas
per day (mmcfpd).

Following completion of the flow testing operations, the J4 well will be
connected via an 8 inch diameter pipeline, some 6.9 kilometres along the seabed
into the existing Johnston field infrastructure. The start-up of commercial gas
production from J4 is expected during October and should significantly boost
output from the Johnston field.

In the Central North Sea, drilling has also been completed on exploration well
23/11-4 having reached a total depth of 11,720 feet. The deeper Jurassic
sandstone target was found to be present as prognosed and of good reservoir
quality, but water bearing. However, the shallower Forties sandstones were
found to be hydrocarbon bearing and, whilst the recoverable volumes present at
this location are estimated to be small and non-commercial, these results
provide encouragement for the further appraisal of the 23/11 block, which also
contains an extension of the Barbara gas field.

Dana plans to drill two further important exploration wells before year-end.
The first is scheduled in October to test the Clachnaben oil prospect in the
Northern North Sea, where Dana holds a 79% stake. Clachnaben lies in Block 211/
22a, adjacent to the Cormorant/Brent export infrastructure through which Dana's
existing Hudson and Otter oil fields currently produce. This Brent sandstone
prospect has the potential to contain around 60 million barrels of oil in place
on a most likely basis. If drilling is successful, a fast-track subsea tie-back
development would be pursued jointly with the adjacent 211/22a-1 discovery,
drilled in 1977, which flowed 31 degree API oil.

Secondly, the Faucon well, in Block 1 offshore Mauritania, has been prepared for
drilling in November and is targeting a structure with the potential to contain
over one billion barrels of oil in place. Dana holds a 60% working interest in
the Block 1 Production Sharing Contract (PSC).

what does rns stand for

Up we go again.

Good news this morning on well J4 and start up in October. Also noticed they put the Fiacre news from earlier this week in with this RNS.

Busy end to the year with the Clachnaben drilling in October and Faucon in Mauritania in November. I wouldn't think we would get the results of Faucon until at least year end or early next year. Thoughts anyone? Lets hope they have more success in Mauritania than HNR have had of late. A big prospect indeed!

Gav

Faucon is potentially huge - net recoverable is f/c at 350m bbls of which i believe DNX have a 60% stake. That said it is high risk and personally would only put success chance at 25%. I would guess on that basis that 200mn net to DNX must be worth 3-4 on the share price witha potential downside of 80p - 1.

Need to to look into Clachnaben

For whoever asked:

RNS stands for Regulatory News Service which is where all formal news releases go through

Fundy,

Agree with you re the high risk for Faucon, success or failure will have an impact on the sp either way. But they must be reasonably confident of finding something since they do hold 60% of block 1, and they took another 12% from TLW to get to 60%. I also note that the carried out CSEMI tests over both Faucon and Petrel to find what they thought was the best prospect. But with any drilling, we won't know until they drill and test.

Interims out 28th and analyst meeting at 11 on the same day.

http://www.companyannouncements.net/cgi-bin/articles/200509211613315842R.html

Strange its taken so long to tell the market - i was told this date when I asked about 3 weeks ago!

Cracking sets of results on first glance plus an agreement to buy 40% in Babbage gas field in the North Sea

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200509280701088532R.html

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200509280701108533R.html

Fund
So much to read I will take your word for it its OK, still holding.

Happy with results, look decent to me at first glance. Look at the average price on UK crude sales, $51.71bp with no hedging. :-)

Seems Alves has changed his rating to a hold.

KBC Cuts Dana Petroleum Production Estimates

Wednesday, September 28, 2005 5:07:09 AM ET
Dow Jones Newswires



0846 GMT [Dow Jones] KBC Peel Hunt to cut 2005 production estimates for Dana Petroleum (DNX.LN), following company's own lowering of output forecasts. Analyst Tony Alves says 1H output was about 12% below his expectations although net income was in-line. However, says higher 2H oil price will offset lower production, and key event for shares in 2H will be Faucon exploration well in Mauritania. KBC has stock at hold. Shares -0.7% at 883p. (MCR)

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1037169.html

Analyst meeting at 11 today.

Gav

seems he hasnt read them properly again!!! The lower production was due to shutting down producing fields to upgarde pipelines and open up the resrvoir with the lower first half production being more than compensated by the resulting higher 2nd half.

Gav

Still trying to get my head round them though the market appears to have them "priced in", spent most of the morning focussing on SKP who have screwed up good and proper. Managed to exit my long (from 53) at 47 and went short at same time. Now down to 41.5 so nearly back to levels for the day on them but been a wee bit stressful. Daft thing is i sold my "real" shares but forgot to do the same with the spreadbet!!!

Fundy,

Agreed. But at least he has changed from sell to hold! Perhaps he will get it right eventually, when they are producing 40k bopd by 07! Good news on the babbage deal this morning also.

Fundy,

Maybe just taking a bit of a breather right now, think quite a few oils are doing something similar, although TLW seems to have been a on a good run lately. I don't see anything in the results today to encourage me to close my sb. Pity about the SKP situation, but at least you made back the sb losses with a short, good trading, well done! I guess you could put the forgetting to close your long down as one of these mistakes everyone makes but learns from, made tons of them myself!!

Article on Sharecast today, a snippet:

"Chairman Colin Goodall said, Dana has continued to make excellent progress through 2005, delivering record interim results. The group now produces from 11 oil and gas fields with three more currently under development and further projects to be sanctioned in 2006.

Exploration and appraisal drilling is advancing strongly with three of the four wells drilled so far this year proving up new reserves and two further exploration wells scheduled before year end.

With a substantial inventory of quality prospects and rising cash flow, Dana intends to accelerate the pace of new drilling with an ambitious plan for up to 20 wells over the next two years.

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=545893

2 RNS's today.

Barclays seem to have added and now hold 12.04%, increase of around 1%.

http://www.companyannouncements.net/cgi-bin/articles/200510101617374595S.html

And Fidelity holding 3.2%. A new holding, or at least a new disclosable holding?

http://www.companyannouncements.net/cgi-bin/articles/200510101326144435S.html