Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

looking at that again yes indeed LOL.

Shore Capital Buy 160.75 - - Retains

Numis Hold 160.75 - 150.00 Retains

Jefferies International Buy 160.75 155.00 155.00 Reiterates

In auction +12.4%

View from the City

'Management has achieved an incredible amount in a relatively short period,' said Nick Batram of broker Peel Hunt, which has a buy recommendation on the stock.


'The refinancing puts the business on a much firmer footing and, with further potential from additional cost savings, the cycle of upgrades looks set to continue. There is still much to be done, but we are growing ever more confident that management will deliver.'

Mark Brumby of Langton Capital said: 'The group’s recovery, though it may be diluted on a per share basis, is much more secure post today’s announcement.

'Thomas Cook has sought to reassure that first half trading, on an underlying basis, remains on an upward trajectory. More costs will be saved than had previously been anticipated and the summer has begun well.


'Disposals have been made, debt reduced and today’s refinancing proposals go much further in securing the group’s recovery than could possibly have been imagined at this time last year.'

Thomas Cook hails 'comprehensive' refinancing


By Lee Hayhurst | 16 May 2013

Thomas Cook has described today’s refinancing as “much more comprehensive” than a proposed package that would have injected £400 million of equity which was rejected last March.

Thomas Cook turned down a bid by former Gold Medal boss Terry Fisher in March 2012 to take a two third stake in the firm for £400 million.

Asked about the similarity to the figure of £425 million the firm will raise with a shares issue as part of the £1.6 billion refinancing chief financial officer Michael Healy said: “This is a much more comprehensive refinancing of the business, not just involving getting equity in to the business but also extending maturity of the debt profile and flattening the debt profile.

“That’s the positive aspect of this refinancing.”

Speaking to the media this morning, Healey said as of Cook’s last financial year end net debt stood at £788 million, so the package of measures announced today reduces that by more than half.

Chief executive Harriet Green said that Cook was increasing its targeted savings this year by £25 million to £170 million.

She said this was largely from working more efficiently as a group in terms of procurement and other activities rather than from further job losses.

The cost reduction programme this year was already three quarters achieved against the original target, hence the decision to raise the level Cook will achieve.

In total Cook has increased its targeted cost savings by 2015, the end of the turnaround period, by £40 million to £319 million.

A review of the UK business portfolio ahead of any decision on disposals was ongoing, said Green, who said only Cook’s share in NATS, the national air traffic organisation, was currently up for sale.

Green said work was progressing in increasing the number of concept hotels exclusive to Thomas Cook and this stood at 93 today, up from 66.

These properties achieve attract twice the gross margin and twice the volume of bookings.

The proportion of business transacted online has hit 35%, and had moved closer to the 2015 target of 50%, said Green.

Green said: “The refinancing has major advantages for the group. It reduces our debt, increases capital and increases our financial headroom by removing the wall of debt we faced in 2015.

“It gives us resources to invest in our profitable growth strategy and it creates a platform for the resumption of dividend payments.”

More information on when dividends would return was promised in 2015.

Green said Cook in the long term had the resources to “unleash the full power of the Thomas Cook brand”.

“We are making great progress. We could not have done this refinancing without that great progress of the business. Not only is Thomas Cook back but we are better and we are there and driving it strongly.”

Prime Markets Buy 164.25 160.00 160.00 Reiterates

I shrewdly bought these at 15p on a spread ber at £100 pp after warren Buffet decided to buy and got out with great glee at 24p - doh.

I just cannot believe how well these have done - good luck to those who stayed the course & well done

Thank you bhunt. I bought GFRD about 10 years ago and sold for a small profit at just under £1 - I can't bear to look at that share price any more!

THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC
PUBLICATION OF PROSPECTUS AND CIRCULAR
For immediate release
16 May 2013
Further to the announcement made by Thomas Cook Group plc (the "Company") earlier today relating to the Capital Refinancing Plan, the Company announces that the Prospectus in respect of the proposed Placing and Rights Issue has been published on the Company's website at http://www.thomascookgroup.com. The Circular, containing a notice convening a General Meeting to be held at 11.00 a.m. on 3 June 2013, will be posted to shareholders today.
The Prospectus and the Circular will be submitted to the National Storage Mechanism, where they will shortly be available for inspection at www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/NSM.
Copies of the Prospectus and the Circular are also available at the Company's registered address at 6th Floor South, Brettenham House, Lancaster Place, London WC2E 7EN.
Capitalised terms used in this announcement have the meanings given to them in the Prospectus

can't remember why i got back into these, but it must have been a nudge from "friends" here .... therefore, very many thanks says my bank manager, as have banked a nice little profit

It was me dick head who put the persuation case.

Anyway glad your stil in but be sensitive monday....... wink... U know cyners what I mean.

monday????????? .... i'm off to venice that day for a few days with Beloved .... and you can't read; i'm now out having banked another splosh of dosh

LSE quotes closing price of 164p, yet MAM quotes 153.5p???
Well done cynic. Nicely banked profit, but am holding for 170p at which point I think I will get out. Have had a good run, but now getting greedy.
Enjoy Venice, but am a bit wary now as the cruise ships seemed to have spoiled it somewhat.

OUT..........

Must admit trimmed the top LOL.......... not lopped it. he he.

i sold at 164.70 and it closed at more or less that level

venice at this time of year should be very nice, though haven't been there for 30+ years

Venice love it.

Some seriously sexy birds.

Wasl ast their 3 years back.

Italian red tape worse than ours.

Morgan Stanley Overweight 159.25 150.00 190.00 Reiterates

Morgan Stanley who first realised the potential recovery of Thomas Cook, raise their target from 150 to 190.

HARRY, I've often found that the MAM closing prices for this share are all over the place. I'm still holding these, but considering all the options available at the moment - decisions, decisions.

Shop damaged in Edinburgh fire will be Cook's new concept store

Thomas Cook will open its second flagship Concept Store in Edinburgh in July.

The Hanover Street shop was closed in July 2012 following a fire in a nearby restaurant.

Staff were relocated to other retail outlets while the store was being refurbished.

It will re-open in time for the Edinburgh Festival as a sister to Thomas Cook's Leeds concept store.

Like Leeds, it will have ambient music and video and will offer "social media technologies so customers can share personalised, holiday-related content".

But it will also have a welcoming VIP Lounge, which Thomas Cook claims is a first for travel retail.

"Retail is such an important part of Thomas Cook's omni-channel approach," said retail director Joanna Wild.

Thomas Cook, which is closing 195 shops across the UK and is looking to move to 50% online bookings, said research indicates that 46% of holidaymakers want to deal 'face-to-face with an expert before booking their holiday'.

"The concept store is all about enabling our customers to book exactly what they want how they want," added Wild.

"Whether it's via the new technologies that will be available to all, or the 'human touch' where expert advice is on-hand if our customers need it, the aim of our new 'stores of the future' will be to make sure that we provide the very best consumer interaction on the high street, both within and without travel."





by Bev Fearis



Friday, May 17, 2013