Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Thomas Cook to embark on Middle East expansion

http://www.hoteliermiddleeast.com/13162-thomas-cook-to-embark-on-middle-east-expansion/

Thomas Cook defers Manny Fontenla-Novoa's pay

Good post from the other side from Rad (im still holding)

Is Thomas Cook in for a bumper year in 2012?
The current position of Thomas Cook Group is not good with investor confidence at a low point. Their end year debt is up 11% more than last year and the sp has tumbled 95%, profit is down because of MENA and Dividends has been suspended. The 572m impairments, write downs and write offs paints a gloomy picture but it was mostly a paper exercise rather than hard cash. The confidence of the investor has left the building and TCG has laid out there recovery plans. So what is in store for 2012?
If they maintain there market position and customer continue to book at 2011/2010 levels management has laid out potential cost benefits for 2012. That is if they are to be believed and can actually be realized.
35m form the sale of hotel in Mexico (Already announced and cash received)
81m from the sale of the Spanish hotel chain Y Clubs De Vacaciones.(Share holder approval required and to be completed in early 2012)
18m from the recent sale of the Dutch office
80m possible sale of Thomas Cook India (rumored in the press but no announcement)
5m proposed from the UK turnaround year 1 saving from fleet, strategic review, shops closure and general cost savings. Planned to be 110m over three years.
92m saving by not paying dividends
300m from operations profit, considering a difficult trading 2012 and the same profit from operations as 2011
If they pay down the debt an additional contribution will be a saving on interest payment 98m was paid in 2011 and 60m in 2010 if they better control this like 2010 they may save and additional 32m or more.
Before write downs 2012 could be sitting on a positive fund of over 600m that could dramatically change the position of the company in just one year.
Paying down debt by the end of 2012 could be a return to stability and be back in solid profit. Returning dividend payments for 2013 could be a distinct possibility. If these results are realized the SP will have a dramatical recovery as well by this time next year.
In 2012 the staff of TCG will also be very focused on minimizing waste and maximizing returns. Fear factor of losing your job is a great motivator. So a strict policy of not boosting sales by giving away discounts that wipe out the profit should be the shops driver. Additional focus on in resort sales will also be a priority for 2012. I think recent measures and bonuses have been linked to customer satisfaction not profit although this is very important core sales must be the focus and a balance needs to be achieved. Post Christmas they are full on with their advertising campaign which is the start of the traditional booking season. If the customer has not been spooked by all the negativity we should see a dramatical turnaround in 2012. There is a strong possibility TCG will have a rights issue once stabilized to pull in additional finance of a number of millions which is currently unknown. However I expect this will only happen once the market has fully regained confidence. This will not be possible for some time as the SP would need to have made a significant recovery from today. I don’t see long term investors interested in a rights issue until they have made a recovery. They will not be interested in throwing good money after bad to support further dilution.
So pending no real world disasters or claps of the USD or the Euro it looks like Thomas Cook Could be a shining star for investors in 2012 and beyond. Take your positions early before it is too late. Today’s prices are a steal and you may be looking at many times your original stake plus % dividends in 2013.

beware the gifts of the geeks

The situation is not as bad as the media say.
Europe may avoid recession this year, IMF says

Wednesday Feb 8 - • Following industry talk that the recently bailed-out Thomas Cook saw bookings plunge in January, the holiday company has the chance to set the record straight at its AGM. Analysts will also pay particular attention to any weakness in the cash-flows, given Cook was close to going bust before Christmas when it needed a £100m emergency bail-out. Any news on a new chief executive would be welcome. The day before Cook’s AGM, TUI Travel reports first-quarter results. Deutsche Bank is forecasting a first-quarter seasonal loss of £113m versus an £86m loss last year. Increased losses reflect weak demand for holidays to Egypt and Tunisia.

Going like a goodun today. Long at 15p

RSI on viagra.

Having another good start.

Another good rise today and a further higher BREAKOUT

short sqeeze?

Most likely is a bear raid on the closing short positions ( sometimes you win, today you lose )

If one reads back just a bit, one reaches conclutions that should not be listen to.

Some would be better keeping their mouth SHUT

cookies are for a hungry man and one did not have to pay much to have a full " tummy "

I am not hungry any more, coz I am full of "cookies " worth a fortune today

just now 27.75p +4.75p

Good luck with these - nice gap to be filled to @40p.

Sold half as doubled my money already,wishing i had bought more now.

Talk of TUI having a look.

marky

I can see you were shaken by the sake

I am still holding the lot though I am tented to take some profits, most likely I will at some stage this week

Will the GAP 30 to 40p be tested at this stage or we will have to wait for another push on the future?
The volume gives the idea that it can be done at this stage.

I guess i called it Right Master.......

Well it all depends on what is right sell at 28p or sell at 29p and sell half or sell the the lot.

I sold the lot this morning @ 28,50p as the order book was not strong as yesterday and if the 30p were not broken then retracement had to happen

edit - both T+15 so I did not have to pay for them, closing positions with plenty days left

This is a typical dead cat bounce imho. The only way this company will survive is by having a huge fire sale and a huge rights issue. Todays shares are worth very little - 5p at best imho.

marky

I am in again with two more lots

this is what I post earlier ...........


2 Mar'12 - 10:34 - 218 of 220 edit

TCG 19.75 / 20P

Had an AUCTION at this price and the order book has change to strong

After the large retracement 61.8% fibonacci, is ready for the turning

and then a bit later ...

2 Mar'12 - 10:53 - 219 of 220 edit
re - TCG

Yesterday's chart with Fibo at 61.8% was giving bounce at around 19.41p midle price the lowest price was 19.50 / 20p and then AUCTION.

you are very very brave this could go belly up anytime.
short term couple of pence upside but its a long way down to 0 imho