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Thomas Cook Group PLC (TCG)     

goldfinger - 03 Aug 2010 08:03

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=TCG&Si

Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

goldfinger - 20 May 2013 16:25 - 965 of 1559

ahhhhh that just more or less sums upwhat other s are doing .

Still think its got an extra 20p in it short term.

cynic - 20 May 2013 16:38 - 966 of 1559

grasping at straws a bit sticky, and for just 20p on 150, is it really good risk/reward? ...... confess i see no rush to buy back in for now

doodlebug4 - 20 May 2013 16:43 - 967 of 1559

I'm sure you're right gf, however I think the markets have had a good run recently and we may see another pull back soon - whether or not that effects the TCG share price is another matter. Historically travel sectors don't tend to do so well in the second half of the year as the first. Harriet Green gave another impressive interview on Sky News on Sunday.

cynic - 20 May 2013 16:49 - 968 of 1559

keep an eye on the rising 25 dma, currently about 135 ..... if sp falls to meet that, history indicates that could be the time to buy (back) in

doodlebug4 - 20 May 2013 16:51 - 969 of 1559

Eyes are peeled cynic.:-)

cynic - 20 May 2013 16:54 - 970 of 1559

promise i'll post if/when i do - as is my general custom

HARRYCAT - 20 May 2013 20:29 - 971 of 1559

RIGHTS ISSUE AND CAPITAL REORGANISATION
The Board of Thomas Cook has announced that as part of a GBP1.6 Billion Capital Refinancing Plan, it will seek to raise approximately GBP425 Million gross proceeds from a fully underwritten Placing and Rights Issue. The Company also proposes to undertake a Reorganisation of its share capital. The Placing and the Rights Issue and the completion of the Capital Reorganisation are all subject to the approval of Shareholders at the General Meeting to be held on 3 June 2013.
TERMS: Rights Issue - 2 New Ordinary Shares at 76 pence for every 5 Ordinary Shares held.
Capital reorganisation - Each Existing Ordinary Share of EUR0.10 nominal value will be subdivided into one Ordinary Share of EUR0.01 nominal value and one New Deferred Share of EUR0.09 nominal value. Relative Details and Dates: 3 June 2013 - Capital Reorganisation, 3 June 2013
Record Date for entitlement under the Rights Issue for Qualifying Shareholders, 5 June 2013 - Admission and dealings in New Ordinary Shares, nil paid, commence on the London Stock Exchange and Ordinary Shares marked Ex-rights. You are not required to take any action at this time.

cynic - 20 May 2013 20:39 - 972 of 1559

clarification required so everyone can see what they are going to be entitled to and at what price/discount, and just as importantly, what its effect is on today's sp

goldfinger - 21 May 2013 09:36 - 973 of 1559

21 May Thomas Cook Group... TCG Investec Buy 155.25 154.40 120.00 185.00 Retains

SP TARGET 185p.

doodlebug4 - 21 May 2013 09:48 - 974 of 1559

I've been reading comments about the rights issue on various other bulletin boards and some posters seem to be under the impression that they are going to get 2 FREE shares for every five they own - now that would have been nice!

Fred1new - 21 May 2013 10:29 - 975 of 1559

It makes no difference.

doodlebug4 - 21 May 2013 10:49 - 976 of 1559

In what way Fred, am I missing something here?

HARRYCAT - 21 May 2013 11:01 - 977 of 1559

I'm sure Fred will come up with an easy to understand explanation, but in the meantime try this:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/05/062905.asp

doodlebug4 - 21 May 2013 11:49 - 978 of 1559

Thank you for that HARRY, I just couldn't understand what Fred was saying.

Fred1new - 21 May 2013 11:59 - 979 of 1559

D4,

I haven't read the details, and therefore may be wrong.

But there is nothing for nothing and the "give away" shares would lead to a reduction of share price.

"Value" of "company" stays the same but number of shares up by 40%.

The share prices are associated with reduction of debt due to new Company cash.

That may increase profit ratios and if thought appropriate the market may increase its interest and share price may go up or down.



BDYOH.

doodlebug4 - 22 May 2013 09:31 - 980 of 1559

Uncertainty/confusion over the Placing and Rights Issue is dragging this share price down now.

cynic - 22 May 2013 15:51 - 981 of 1559

my guess is that, isofar as it is possible, sp was pumped up to allow an apparently generous price for the placing/rights ....... confess i am somewhat surprised that the detail has not been announced and made everything clear

i dare say i shall climb aboard once again once sp has fallen suffciently and/or the rights issue details are made clear and on the table, should PIs actually get a sniff

goldfinger - 22 May 2013 16:42 - 982 of 1559

Been made very clear on Twitter ......Harriet posts up their and has been answering questions.

cynic - 22 May 2013 16:49 - 983 of 1559

i do not follow let alone subscribe to twitter or any other of those (very dangerous) social media sites

doodlebug4 - 22 May 2013 16:51 - 984 of 1559

I don't follow twitter and not everyone does. Perhaps Harriet needs to visit the TCG thread on ad--n and explain a few things to the posters there, who generally seem to be utterly confused by the whole thing - various numbers being bandied about and a lot of "ifs and buts"!
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