Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

I've only been there a couple of times on daytrips from Ibiza, Dilbert. It's the fact that it's so quiet which makes it appealing to be honest.

I didn't realise that we had so many lurkers on this thread.

:o)

( TF ) 04/13 16:44
OUTLOOK Highlights of US economic indicators to be released in the coming week


- WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The following is a synopsis of highlights for US economic indicators to be released in the coming week, with forecasts compiled by Thomson's IFR Markets.


The week will be heavy in economic indicators, with the consumer price index and retail sales among the most closely watched. There will also be speeches by the presidents of the Federal Reserve banks of San Francisco and Philadelphia as well as Fed governors Kevin Warsh and Donald Kohn. On Wednesday, the Fed will release its Beige Book.


MONDAY, APRIL 14


The week will begin with the release of retail sales, which in March are expected to have been flat following last month's 0.6 pct decline. Excluding automobiles, retail sales are expected to have increased 0.2 pct following a 0.2 pct decline in the previous month.

'With three months in a row of falling employment and plunging consumer confidence, retail spending is likely to weaken substantially going forward,' said Jaqui Douglas of TD Economics. Other signs of weakness include the below-50 reading on the ISM non-manufacturing index for three consecutive months and March's declining same-store sales, Douglas noted.


Business inventories are expected to have increased by 0.6 pct in February following a 0.8 pct increase in the previous month.

'Inventory growth continues to surprise on the upside, and solid stock building may keep Q1 GDP above the zero threshold despite signs of recession accumulating in virtually all the major indicators,' economists from Lehman Brothers said.

Meanwhile, business sales are expected to have dipped by 1.5 pct following a 1.5 pct increase in the previous month.


TUESDAY, APRIL 15


Tuesday will begin with the release of the Empire State survey of manufacturing conditions. In April, the index is expected to improve to a level of -16.0 from -22.23 in the previous month.


The Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation, is expected to have increased 0.5 pct in March, two tenths of a percentage point more than it grew in the previous month. Core PPI, which excludes highly volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have increased in March by 0.2 pct, less than the 0.5 pct it grew in the previous month.

'The Fed would eagerly welcome a second consecutive subnormal reading to help demonstrate to itself, and the public at large, that inflationary pressures are on the wane,' said Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault of Global Insight.


April's National Association of Homebuilders survey, which measures the sentiment of homebuilders, is expected to remain at a level of 20, which Joshua Shapiro of MFR says is 'indicative of extremely weak conditions in the housing market.'

'Although current housing conditions are bleak, with depressed home sales and excess inventory, builders are growing a bit more optimistic about the outlook,' said economists from Lehman Brothers.

The economists noted the Fed's injection of liquidity and Congress's debate over pending proposals to give tax breaks to builders by allowing them to claim current losses against taxes paid in earlier, more profitable years.



WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16


On Wednesday, the Labor Department will release the Consumer Price Index. It is expected to have increased by 0.3 pct in March after being flat in the previous month. Core CPI is expected to have increased 0.2 pct after being flat in the previous month.

'Steady upward pressure from the energy/food/import complex should more than offset the damping effect of retail discounting and rent cutting,' said Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets.


The number of houses on which builders broke ground is expected to have dipped in March to a 1.018 mln unit annual rate, from 1.065 mln. The number of building permits issues in March is expected to have dropped to a 965,000 rate from 978,000 in the previous month.

'The contraction in residential construction should continue to act as a deadweight on new starts and applications to build in March,' said Joseph Brusuelas of IDEAglobal.


Industrial production in March is expected to have dipped by 0.1 pct following a 0.5 pct fall in the previous month. Capacity utilization in the month is expected to have fallen to 80.3 pct from 80.9 pct.

'We are expecting a steep drop in motor vehicle production because of the strike at American Axle, which closed assembly lines,' said Bethune and Gault. 'Manufacturing is contracting, but the good news is that the decline is gradual, with strong export demand providing support.'


Also on Wednesday is the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, 'which is expected to underscore the precarious nature of domestic demand,' Shapiro said.



THURSDAY, APRIL 17


As is usual on Thursdays, the Labor Department will release its weekly initial jobless claims figures. In the week ending April 12, the number of individuals filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance is expected to increase to 375,000 following the previous week's unexpected drop to 357,000 claims. Economists say claims totaling 400,000 would be a sign of recession.

'The overall trend in the series implies a new range of 370,000 to 400,000 for initial claims with occasional forays above the critical 400,000, which will confirm fears that the labor market has begun to deteriorate with a bit more speed than the market had previously forecast,' Brusuelas said.

Meanwhile, the number of individuals who continue to file claims for unemployment insurance is expected to drop to 2.930 million claims from 2.940 million claims in the previous week.


Also on Thursday is the release of the Philly Fed survey of manufacturing conditions, which for the month of April is expected to have improved slightly to -15.0 from -17.4. 'Although new orders and shipments both rose last month, unfilled orders fell sharply, indicating limited potential for a significant improvement,' said economists from Lehman Brothers.

'Additionally, both the employment and the hours series both suggested that firms were reducing their head count and trying to manage their production schedules.'

I think it might take a bit of time today for the markets to get their heads around G7. I know the Euro gapped heavily down, but it's rallied since and are the markets really going to give a toss about what the frogs want?

Morning all,

I'm looking at possibily shorting the Euro later this morning. Just see what happens with this retrace first. Looking forward to a nice volatile week.

Cable should get interesting at $1.99

I have a down sloping daily trendline lining up at around 1.9907 on cable. Looks strong enough to blast right through that though. Another bash at breaking above 2.00 this week?

Those down sloping trendlines are referred to as slopey wotsits or slopey thingies on this thread, FF.

Please be sure to use the correct terminology in future.

:o)

PS. Don't know what charts you're using, but I've got my slopey wotsit current showing at exactly 1.9900 on the M15 chart. It's looking very toppy on the M15 and due a leg down, although the H4 suggests that it's still got some mileage. A bit of va va voom (another technical term) tomorrow could easily see it break through the slopey wotsit imo.

Apologies ... must try harder.

My slopey thingey-me-bob wotsit is at 199.07 on M15, H4 and Daily. I'm using MT4, though I guess with Forex and no centralised exchange there's bound to be discrepancies in exact prices.

BTW what's best/easiest way to post charts up?

FF,

I've sussed that, with MT4, you first need to draw the line or channel on a slow timeframe such as H4 or D1. You then need to zoom into the highs and lows on a faster timeframe such as M5 or M15 and alter the object properties. It will then project more accurately.

To post up a chart, you need to get somebody like Photobucket.com to host the image. You then copy the image properties and paste them on the thread using the little html wizard above the text box. Easypeezylemonsqueezy.

Here's my piccie of H4 cable with my interpretation of where it's been and might be going.

These are the parameters for my down channel, FF.

Thanks Hils,

Yes, you certainly have to be careful drawing trend lines in MT4. I found the best way is attach on higher time frame then zoom in to M5, double click the trendline again and drag the 'grabber' icon to reattach it to the appropriate M5 bar extreme. It changes the object properties for you without having to open up the dialog box. Not sure if that's what you meant by your description but both end up changing the object properties of the trend line.

I'll have a try later of posting an image. I think I've got some web space somewhere which I'll try to use first.

That makes sense, FF, except that I didn't know you could drag a line. Where or how do you find the "grabber" icon?

Double click on the line Hils and three little icons appear on the line itself

Beat me to it PT.

Hils, I've checked my trendline anchor points and mine are 1 pip higher than yours at those same points. 2.0397 and 2.0192 that will make our wotsits slightly different.

I notice the times on your chart though must be BST whereas mine are 1 hour advanced from that. My MT4 is downloaded from Alpari UK and server is mh. Where have you downloaded yours from to manage to get the correct UK times?

Oh yes, so they do. Ta pth.

You've got me confused now, FF, as I'm with ODL and they are on GMT.

Now I'm confused Hils.

Reason I came to conclusion your on BST is this. My MT4 charts always show 1 hour in advance of the current UK time. Thus they are now showing 17:00 even though we are really 16:00 BST.

On the previous image you put up of the trendline parameters, one of your points was 2008.03.14 14:30, price 2.0396. My equivalent chart point was showing as 15:30, 2.0397. As I know my times on my charts are out by an hour I concluded that yours must be showing the correct times, hence my thinking yours must be BST.

I've also got Alpari installed, FF, for those "Condor" moments when ODL are down.

It appears that on Sunday evenings Alpari charts seem to restart at 11pm whereas ODL charts restart at 10pm. All of the "missing" price bars over the course of a few weeks must affect the angle of the dangle.

Yes it will.

Also the fact that FX prices are different depending on which exchange your broker gets prices from will also have an impact. Particularly, if the price differences are at an extrame point where trendlines are drawn from.

As we have found we are 1 pip difference on 2 of our trendline points and this will have an effect on things as well. However, they will not be dramatically different and unless someone is using longer term trend lines to scalp off it shouldn't really be of too much concern.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar strengthened versus its rivals in small tides Monday - growing on robust retail sales data and suggestions of German frustration with the euro, and ebbing with financial sector weakness.

But at the end of the day, it was very close to its late session levels from the close of last week, as currency traders brushed off any lasting impact from the hotly anticipated beefed-up communique on foreign exchange markets from the Group of Seven meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Washington Friday.

"In my view nothing has changed. We're right back to where we started Friday," said Mark Frey, head foreign exchange trader at Custom House in Victoria, B.C., Canada.

Late Monday in New York, the euro was at $1.5811 from $1.5826 late Friday, while the dollar was at Y101.04 from Y100.87. The euro was at Y159.76 from Y159.65, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.9761 from $1.9716 late Friday, and the dollar was at CHF1.0005 from CHF1.0002.

The G7 statement offered the first substantive wording change on foreign exchange markets in four years, but failed to detail any commitment to act among the leading industrialized nations. Any market expectations that new language would translate to renewed dollar strength were quickly disappointed. After an initial bounce at the start of the Asian trading session Monday, the dollar completely reversed course versus the euro within about 12 hours. By the time the New York session got underway, the single currency was back within half a cent of its record high - $1.5915, struck last Thursday.

"The trend remains dollar weakness," said Adam Boyton, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in New York.

The consensus is the G7's words are only words - and weak ones at that.

"Since our last meeting, there have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability," the statement said.

The communique excluded its long-running statement that "exchange rates should reflect fundamentals."

"(The G7 leaders) seem to accept that a weaker dollar is inevitable given the Federal Reserve is slashing rates and the U.S. is in recession," said Tom Levinson, a foreign exchange strategist at ING Wholesale Banking in London, echoing the sentiment of several analysts. "It still seems only a matter of time before (the euro) trades at $1.60."

To boot, "there is no suggestion in the G7 communique that current levels do not reflect fundamentals," said David Gilmore, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex, Conn.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson seemed to indicate that the new G7 language is more a product of changing times than the inclinations of policymakers.

Paulson told reporters after the meeting Friday that "if you never changed a communique language no matter what happened around the world, it would be pretty meaningless."

"This communique reflects market developments and changes in the markets," he said.

"(The) point is that developments in currency pairs such as (the euro versus the dollar) are fundamentally based and as such, monetary officials are unlikely to take action to counter those movements," said Robert Lynch, currency strategist at HSBC in New York.

The European Central Bank, the key ally for any intervention to curb the dollar's depreciation versus the euro, has explicitly refused taking any steps that would be necessary for intervention to be successful - namely, a rate cut.

Indeed, words from ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch proved perhaps more meaningful than the G7's Monday. The euro strengthened versus the dollar after Bloomberg reported an interview in which Mersch said there is no scope for an interest rate cut in the euro zone this year, as the ECB may need to revise up its inflation outlook.

But ongoing market uncertainty ahead of key banking sector earnings reports this week kept markets irresolute. Already Monday, Wachovia announced a first-quarter loss and plans to sell more stock to shore up its capital levels. The risk aversion may relive the the lower-yielding dollar, as investors exit riskier, higher-yielding assets.

The euro gains versus the greenback also ebbed Monday after a surprising turn in March U.S. retail sales, which increased by 0.2% - versus an expected 0.1% decline - from a 0.1% drop in February, the Commerce Department said Monday.

Comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel may have weighed down the euro against the buck too, said Boyton of Deutsche Bank. Merkel said the euro's strength against the dollar is proving to be "a bit of a headache."

08:30 *UK ANNUAL CPI INFLATION UNCHANGED AT 2.5 PERCENT IN MARCH
08:30 *UK MARCH RPI INFLATION UP 3.8 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR, LOWEST SINCE JULY 2007