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1.9831 looks to be today's magic number. Has it got the legs to clear it this time?

If not Hil, I'm sure you have ;-)

These legs, MM? I've given up the fitness regime and let myself go a bit since I last saw you.

Those are indeed the legs, Hil. I have mixed feelings about the boots, though . . .

Yeah, ride on cowboy.

Inflation to remain above target next year as well: Weber


Buba chief Weber continues to burn up the wires, saying the G7 statement on FX speaks for itself. "Some" FX moves are of concern, he says, and that excessive FX volatility is not good for growth. The market is seizing on the hawkish bits, as usual, as Weber says that inflation will likely stay above 2% in 2009 by a significant margin, implying rate cuts are off the table for the remainder of the decade, if taken at face value. EUR/USD is on the rise again, amid reports of buying by a Mid East account. It trades at 1.5910.

Portrait of a EUR/USD short-seller on the G7 statement


A reader was kind enough to send along photographic evidence of his experience after selling EUR/USD Monday morning following the shift in rhetoric from the G7 on currencies.

Isn't the edit button useful Hils ;-)

That outfit's a bit too revealing for my liking.

I'm not quite sure what you mean, Seymour. What edit button?

:o)

That edit button, Hil ;-)

Cable next target 2.0110? (H4 chart btw)

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:


Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 0850 GMT 1.5945 102.39 1.9959 1.0060
3 Day Trend Bullish Bouncing Bullish Neutral
Weekly Trend Bullish Capped Capped Neutral
200 day ma 1.4538 110.95 2.0125 1.1257
3rd Resistance 1.6050 103.60 2.0047 1.0150
2nd Resistance 1.6012 103.20 2.0011 1.0115
1st Resistance 1.5980 102.95 1.9985 1.0094
Pivot* 1.5929 102.41 1.9946 1.0057
1st Support 1.5875 102.25 1.9922 1.0040
2nd Support 1.5812 101.97 1.9884 1.0015
3rd Support 1.5780 101.50 1.9843 0.9960

Intraday EUR/USD: The euro still eyes Wednesday's $1.5980 new all-time high, a break above which will have $1.6012 minor resistance in sight. Provided the pair remains below it, however, minor support around $1.5875 is just as likely to be revisited in the days to come.

Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.


Intraday USD/JPY: The dollar is likely to remain below Y102.95 minor resistance, and to retrace towards Y102.25 minor support, and, if breached, Y101.97 minor support. Resistance above Y102.95 is found around Y103.20.

Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Capped.


Intraday GBP/USD: Sterling is advancing and nears $1.9985 minor resistance, which is likely to cap it. A retracement back to $1.9922 minor support seems probable for Friday. Further support comes in around $1.9884, Friday's intraday low, and at $1.9843, the April 10 high. Resistance above $1.9985 comes in around $2.0011.

Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Capped.


Intraday USD/CHF: The dollar is slipping back towards CHF1.0040 minor support, a decline through which has CHF1.0015 support in view. First minor resistance around CHF1.0094 is expected to continue to cap the currency pair.

Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Neutral.


Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD

Spot 0850 GMT 0.7989 163.26 1.6040 0.9389
3 Day Trend Capped Bullish Bullish Bullish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bullish Bouncing Bouncing
200 day ma 0.7230 160.92 1.6320 0.8853
3rd Resistance 0.8038 164.39 1.6089 0.9466
2nd Resistance 0.8012 164.08 1.6066 0.9435
1st Resistance 0.7998 163.55 1.6047 0.9405
Pivot* 0.7987 163.16 1.6021 0.9382
1st Support 0.7972 162.90 1.6020 0.9360
2nd Support 0.7951 162.35 1.5994 0.9347
3rd Support 0.7932 161.75 1.5958 0.9301

Intraday EUR/GBP: The euro lost around one pence versus sterling Thursday before stabilizing at GBP0.7972. It currently nears GBP0.7998 minor resistance. Above this, GBP0.8012 resistance may also be reached. Minor support below GBP0.7972 stands at GBP0.7951.

Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.


Intraday EUR/JPY: The euro nears Y163.55 minor resistance. In case of a break above this, Y164.08 resistance, the Dec. 26 low, will be targeted. Minor support is found around Y162.90 and at Y162.35.

Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.


Intraday EUR/CHF: The euro is oscillating between CHF1.6047 and CHF1.6020 Friday morning. In case of an advance above CHF1.6047, CHF1.6066 and then CHF1.6089 resistance will be in focus, whereas a decline through CHF1.6020 would have CHF1.5994 minor support in sight.

Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bouncing.


Intraday AUD/USD: The Australian dollar is taking another run at US$0.9405 minor resistance. In case of a continued advance, US$0.9435 minor resistance will be eyed. Minor support stands at US$0.9360, Friday's intraday low, and around US$0.9347, the March 19 high.

Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bouncing.

* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.


For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"

Morning All,

Does anyone have any experinces, good or bad, with Tradestation? I'm thinking of opening an account with them.

Platform looks fairly good and they seem to have reasonable spreads on Forex. Also I could use it for trading options and US shares as well. So everything I need under 1 additional platform. Interested in anybody's comments ...

FF,


I use Tradestation all the time, love the Tick charts they provide. Do not use them as a Broker though. However if you place a minimum number of trades with them each month you can get the platform for free. Hope my comments help.


JT

Sterling lending rates post negligible drop

Three month sterling libor has fallen by a negligible amount today, disappointing anyone who expected lending rates to come down swiftly after the Bank od England's emergency measures announced on Monday. This won't sit kindly with Chancellor Darling who is meeting the Council of Mortgage Lenders today and he will have been further frustrated by the news that Abbey have just announced a further increase to their mortgage rates. Cable has performed well this morning re-establishing itself above 1.9800 as some Eur/Gbp selling has pushed the cross down to 0.8020. Look out for a speech by BOE member Timothy Besley which is due at 12.15 GMT.

Thanks JT,

Have you ever used Tradestation as the broker or just prefer someone else?

Yes, getting it for free is a bonus which I'll easily do each month. I can't see why anyone would want to go with someone else, like e-signal for example, and pay for their platform when you can get it from elsewhere for free.

The time is wrong in this piece. It should read 13:00GMT.

12:33 GMT, Apr 22 2008 | Posted by Jamie Coleman from Boston
Forward-looking BOC set to trim 50 bp


With its biggest customer sucking wind, the BOC is set to trim its bank rate to 3.00% this morning to get in front of the slowdown in growth that the Governor of the BOC has been telegraphing since taking office earlier this year. Don't expect too much of a reaction if the BOC give the market what it expects, but expect a violent USD slide should the BOC unexpectedly take a go-slow approach on rate cuts. CAD crosses would likely benefit dramatically from an unexpected 25 bp cut as well. The rate move will be announced at 14:00 GMT, just under a half hour from now.

Otherwise, expect more 1.0000/1.0150.

06:59 GMT, Apr 23 2008 | Posted by Mark Mitchell from London
Some people just don't get it


Another Jean-Claude (there are a lot of them around) is speaking on the wires. This time it's Luxembourg Prime Minister and and Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker who bemoans the excessive volatility in fx at the moment. When asked about Euro FX, he says markets should focus less on short-term info and that it was not the intention of the G7 to have led to results on FX we see today. Questioned specifically on the pricing in of an ECB rate rise in FX he said "I don't like the way things are developing" With 21 members on the ECB council, the ECB need to quickly get back to the days of "we speak with one voice"

08:35 *POUND JUMPS AFTER BOE MINUTES SHOW 2 VOTES FOR RATES TO BE LEFT ON HOLD
08:31 Asian inflation at fresh multi-year highs as fuel, food, housing prices climb
08:30 *BOE MPC MAJORITY SAID CUT NOW WOULD REDUCE 'TAIL RISK' OF AGGRESSIVE CUTS LATER
08:30 *BOE'S BESLEY/SENTANCE SAID RECENT ECONOMIC NEWS HAD HELD UP PRETTY WELL
08:30 *BOE'S BLANCHFLOWER SAID NEAR-TERM RISE IN INFLATION LIKELY TO BE 'SHORT-LIVED'
08:30 *BOE MPC MAJORITY HAD DIFFERENT VIEWS OF MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION RISKS
08:30 *BOE'S BLANCHFLOWER SAID LARGER CUT NEEDED TO STAVE OFF MARKED ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
08:30 *BOE'S BESLEY/SENTANCE SAID PREMATURE CUT COULD FUEL INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
08:30 BoE MPC split 3 ways on April 10, with Sentance/Besley voting for rates on hold
08:30 *BOE MPC MAJORITY BACKED SMALL CUT TO HELP OFFSET CREDIT CRISIS' INFLATION HIT
08:30 *BOE MPC'S MAJORITY OF SIX, INC KING, VOTED FOR QUARTER POINT CUT TO 5.00 PCT
08:30 *BOE MPC'S BLANCHFLOWER ONLY MEMBER TO VOTE FOR HALF POINT CUT TO 4.75 PCT
08:30 *BOE MPC'S SENTANCE AND BESLEY ONLY MEMBERS VOTING FOR RATES TO STAY AT 5.25 PCT

Thanks for that Hil. Just to let you know there are people reading it :-)

Good to hear it, Seymour. This is how the market is looking at it.

08:46 GMT, Apr 23 2008 | Posted by Mark Mitchell from London
Confusion reigns on the MPC

Well it looks like the MPC couldn't be more confused if they tried ! When the vote came along for what action to take on rates 6 members went for a 25 basis point cut and surprise surprise Blanchflower went for a 50 basis point cut, but what is grabbing the market attention is the fact that Besley and Sentance went for no change. The BOE wlecomed the weakening housing maket saying that some fall in earnings/price ratio was probably warranted and the MPC majority felt that an april cut would reduce the risk of need for sharper moves later. It does look like a May cut is off the agenda, but if data continues to come in so poorly we feel that a June rate cut is now more likely. We will get a better idea of how the economy is performing over the next few days after Retail Sales, Nationwide House price survey and the first estimate of 1Q GDP. Sterling has ticked up slightly on this to 1.9940 in Cable and 0.8007 in Eur/Gbp