Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Hils
Yes, still the pipex acct

OK, I've just spent my lunchtime rattling you off an email instead of having a swim. Let me know if there's a problem.

Hils
What can I say, I feel guilty now and my beef and coleslaw sarnie just wont taste the same. I can see the email on netmail but cant get to the attachment so will do as you say when I get home. Thanks for your time and I will be in touch.

Wheres Humbug

Right, time to come clean and hopefully this story will be a warning to others out there. Got back to trading a few weeks ago after an enforced break and well, all I can say is since then its been an absolute disaster. Anything and everything is gone wrong for me and its really shaken my confidence in my abilities to trade at all. It all started after I had some severe funding issues to resolve with my property investments (Not sure I can blame my situation on that; maybe it was just coincidence that it all started happening from that point, who knows) Since then Ive just been overtrading, entering trades on a whim, moving stops, cutting profits basically gambling really.

Talk about self sabotage. Ive been trading for years, actively from around 2000/1 when I was lurking on the then advfn BBs and basically full time for about a year and pretty reasonable successfully during this period as well. I see other names I recognise on the Traders Thread from around the advfn time and see that they have matured, developed and are succeeding but Im apparently back to square one.

I have always had a discretionary element to my trading that has been hard to quantify. Over the past couple of months I taught myself how to program Tradestation thinking I could easily come up with an automated strategy to trade the Forex and US Indexes so that all the emotions and discretionary part of my trading would be taken away. The theory - leave it running, check it now and again and just take the money! Not having much success there either. Coming from an IT background the programming part is very, very easy but making money through it, is proving as elusive as ever. Help! Think I need to sit down and revaluate things and stop digging this hole any deeper. Feel a bit better getting this off my chest and posting.

Hopefully others will benefit from this in that no matter how long youve been trading in any capacity the Trading Demons are out to get you if you lower your guard and let them in.

Freemanfox, I know the feeling.

Have made some pretty disastrous trades this last fortnight all caused by greed and not playing by my rules.

This week however I am being vert strict with myself and the trades are starting to come good again.

Hang in there.

Thanks Keaydian,

Thing is, because there has been an element of discretion to my trading previously can I get back to trusting myself and my abilities?

If you trusted them before, why not.

FF
Sorry to hear your news. I think financially its tough for a lot of people outside of trading, rising prices, job cuts etc.

I have always had an element of gambling to my trading and like most gamblers I tend to remember the trades that made lots of money but forget the ones that lost money.

The one thing in my favour is that I have always been able to trade within my means so have never jeapodised my way of life in any way. (not yet)

My current thinking is that I want to work one more year then get myself a narrow boat and cruise the canals. I would need some income so my plan is to have a profit target of 200 a day, large stake, small number of points. When/if I get 200 then turn the PC off for the day. Sounds easy but I doubt it will be.

Anyway, good luck in whatever you do.

FF sorry to hear about your troubles. Bad news is that you seem to have a lot of emotional problems that are buggering up your trading (nothing to do with programming, trading systems, etc). Good news is that you can fix things and get back to trading properly althuogh won't be quick and easy. Try this book:

Emotion Free Trading

Good luck.

Foxie - your story isn't so much a warning to the rest of us but rather confirmation of fellow sentiments. Finding blame is certainly not the answer, as you say, but financial circumstances - and indeed emotional state of mind over any number of things - however much we try to divorce them from the trading psyche, do have an impact.

All I can offer is this: nothing ever remains the same, and in order to keep up we must evolve. We can stop doing something altogether, or we can learn to do it differently. Last summer changed everything for me following heart surgery and all the complications that caused. I trade far less than I used to, and (most of the time), more cautiously, but with consistently far better returns - Brownies' Honour!

By way of an apology to those of you who expressed interest in a Forex seminar thingie, my 'recovery' didn't quite go according to plan since the beginning of the year, so I'm stuck with a cocktail of medication since April, some of which has recently been doubled. I know some of you will resoundingly say I was loopy before - but now ...

Anyway, that has caused me to change tactics again. Until some very nice doctor can sort me out, I currently trade for a couple of hours or so after 5pm, when the market is usually quiet. There are enough pips in it for me, and it's magic :)

If I'm too fuzzy, I don't trade. Either way, I don't worry about it - and that is important.

It is not for anyone else to persuade you of your trading capabilities, Foxie, and I hope you will find your strengths again in short order - and whatever decision they may lead you to.

Sorry to hear of your woes, Foxey.

There's not really anything that I can say that hasn't already been said by others already on this thread. Needless to say, you know where I am if there's anything you need.

Thanks everyone for the support and encouragement.

Isaacs thanks for the link, I will have a read. You are right to some extent that it is the emotional side that has had a big impact on things. But I think it has been more the external attractions that have affected me more than anything else. Just got to put things out of my head and move on.

Choccie just goes to show there is always a way. I thank you for your words and wish you well in your recovery. I am so grateful that I am in good health any short term difficulties that I have are only that.

Jeffmack, yes things are tough out there. Good luck with your future plans.

Keaydian - Yes you are right I should just trust my abilities and focus on trading each opportunity that comes along rather than dwell on my recent failings. In fact, during this same disastrous period trading my proper accounts, I found I had an old spreadbet account that I still had a bit of funds in that Id forgotten about. I traded the FTSE100 Index exclusively just focusing on trading the correct setups rather than chasing the money. In 7 trading days I turned it into a 10-bagger! Unfortunately, only started with 50 quid, but because it was so little amount I focused on just doing the right thing so that should give me confidence in my abilities in the very least.

Hils, thanks for the kind words and the offer of support. I appreciate it. I think I need to chill out and take a break from trading my proper accounts for a while. Think Ill focus on trading the FTSE for small amounts in my revitalised spreadbet account plus do a bit of programming automated systems for a bit of relief.

Thanks again everyone.

Isaacs, thanks for posting the book link, a useful read.

Hope you were off to a good start, Foxie.


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With not much important economic data due out next week, the dollar may remain a crash test dummy for volatile oil and stock markets, making it vulnerable to more record lows versus the euro.

When stock markets plunged early this week on worries over mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the euro jumped to a fresh lifetime high of $1.6040 against the dollar. The dollar also fell to its lowest level against Japan's yen since late May, a display of the U.S. currency's broad weakness.

The dollar bounced back just as quickly, however, when oil prices dipped below $130 a barrel and U.S. companies reported somewhat firm earnings, which helped stock markets notch a modest recovery.

But analysts say the dollar's rebound from its record low versus the euro shouldn't be expected to keep going, not against a backdrop of continued volatility in other asset classes and a U.S. economy that continues to weaken.

"The price action remains subject to sharp reversals driven by the volatile mood in the crude-oil and equity markets," said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo Bank.

Analysts at Credit Suisse also worry that the reasons for the dollar's modest rebound this week may actually be the result of fundamentally dollar-negative news.

"The U.S. economy itself is driving much of the downturn in global demand, which is being partly credited for the recent oil price fall," the currency strategists say in a research report. "We remain skeptical of dollar bounces."

Of course, the dollar may receive some support from a speech planned for Tuesday in New York by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the official voice for the U.S. currency.

Against that background, the euro is seen trading between $1.56 and $1.61 next week, while the dollar could move in a wide range between Y103.50 and Y108.

Friday in New York, the euro was at $1.5851, up from $1.5830 late Thursday. The dollar was at Y106.79, up from Y106.68, while the euro was at Y169.25, up from Y168.87, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.9962, down from $1.9995, and the dollar was at CHF1.0213, down from CHF1.0228 late Thursday.

Erratic trading in the dollar has become the norm in foreign exchange markets recently. The euro has traded in a broad range between $1.53 and $1.60 for the past four months, testing the top and bottom of that range several times.

There may, however, be a light at the end of the tunnel. A Dow Jones Newswires survey this week of 23 analysts forecast the embattled dollar to begin to recover on a longer-term basis. They see, on average, the euro at $1.56 at the end of the year and at $1.50 roughly a year from now. The analysts see the dollar at Y107 by the end of this year and Y110 by late-June 2009.

But currency strategists such as Geoffrey Yu at UBS say the dollar's immediate future remains rather dim.

"We still doubt this is the end of dollar weakness," Yu said. "Equities, while recovering, remain trapped in a bear market."

He and other analysts skeptical on the dollar in the near term also point to reports that global sovereign wealth funds - state-controlled investment entities that are typically huge buyers of dollars - may be scaling back their exposure to the U.S. currency.

That's not to say the dollar has no chance of making a push toward the high end of its recent range against the euro in the coming week.

Oil prices could continue to correct next week after hitting a record $147 earlier this month, which may benefit the dollar insofar as it would improve the outlook of U.S. consumers squeezed by soaring gasoline prices.

Still, currency traders are hesitant to view lower oil prices as an unwavering positive factor for the dollar. Cheaper prices for crude would likely reduce the Federal Reserve's worries about inflation, which would make policy setters less likely to raise interest rates any time soon.

If the Fed keeps its benchmark interest rate at a low 2% for an extended period without hiking, this could further damp interest in the buck as it would keep investors' expected returns on dollar-based assets rather low.

U.S. data out next week could, of course, surprise to the upside, providing some dollar support. Among the key indicators are weekly jobless claims, existing home sales, durable goods orders and a University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment survey.

The Fed's beige book, a district-by-district summary of economic conditions, is also due out Wednesday.

Thanks Choccie, Yes I had another successful day trading the FTSE100 index on Friday. The long fight back begins ....

When did USD/JPY fall to 80.00? Just after the Kobe quake of 1995.

Japanese insurers typically keep a large percentage of their reserves in higher-yielding overseas assets. If they suffered heavy losses, they would have to repatriate that cash invested overseas.

To review: Don't sell yen on a big Japanese quake, buy with both hands.

UPDATE: The wires report Japanese nuclear plants are operating normally after the 6.8 quake hit Honshu

Today's silly question, is it possible to trade the USDX (US Dollar Index), it looks interesting above 74.

Very wise words from Chocolat in post 9959 above.

Spacie,

I'm sure that it is possible, but I'm not sure who with I'm afraid, nor do I know what the likely spread would be.

Notwithstanding, why do you want to trade USDX? It is very good for identifying the major Dollar downtrend which has been in place now for several years together with the cycles which occur within that downtrend. Something like 52% composition of USDX is derived from fiber and the balance is from the other Europeans except for about 13% which comes from USD/JPY. Any broker who does trade USDX will need a SEK feed as that is used as part of the calculation.

Quite frankly, you might just as well trade a European pair such as cable or fiber.

hils, cant download the book on mq4, do you have any suggestions where else might be able to get a copy. have sent them an email, but have had no response as yet

What book, Gofe? This manual is the only one I'm aware of.