Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Re: The Hub.

ThompsonReuters are in massive post merger/takeover consolidation and cost-cutting mode. Many babies are going out with the bathwater. People I deal with are in fear of their jobs -- slash and burn is the order of the day. Expect no good judgement or even commonsense.

BTW, who's going to get post 10,000? It should be you, Hil . . .

It looks like it's me then. Well spotted, DelBoy.

:o)

Hi all.... 1:8600 area does looks like it might be a Cable reversal point....

10000 posts.... you might have to call this thread a success...
Well done Hils

good 2cu on the thread again foale, currently in uk, just ofto one of those nasty pubs that stays open till you go home!

Don't know if this has been mentioned elsewhere but there's an EWI Freeweek for Forex this week, including intraday:

www.elliottwave.com

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Global central banks that kept huge amounts of U.S. dollars as foreign currency reserves throughout the long years of decline will be even more loyal to the greenback now that it's making a comeback, right?

Wrong.

If the dollar is indeed on track for a multi-year uptrend, central banks are likely to slowly cut back on their dollar holdings. And with trillions of dollars sitting in foreign central bank coffers, analysts say that even a moderate reduction in reserves could put the brakes on any major surge by the U.S. currency. That means a long-term upswing in the dollar might be just as slow and steady as most of its downtrend was.

"The surge in central banks' foreign reserves (most of which are held in dollars) has been the flip side of the weak dollar over the past six years," said Chris Turner, currency strategist at ING in London. "If the dollar has begun a multi-year recovery...we could conceivably see a modest drawdown in reserves."

During the dollar's roughly six-year decline, global central banks increased their total foreign reserves from around $2 trillion to nearly $7 trillion, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. The dollar's share of these funds has actually increased, accounting for about 63% in the first quarter of 2008, up from about 55% in late 2001.

But that buildup in reserves may now change, as the dollar appears to have found a floor last month, when the euro hit an all-time high of $1.6040. The dollar has since risen about 10%, with the euro falling to as low as $1.4570 Tuesday.


Rainy Days Are Coming

The dollar reserves accumulated by central banks abroad aren't part of an return-seeking investment strategy. Nor are they necessarily intended as a security blanket, to be used in the event of a crisis. Experts say the massive amounts held by many central banks - about $1.8 trillion in China, $300 billion in India, $200 billion in Brazil - far surpass the amount deemed necessary to fend off financial market shocks.

Instead, many central banks, including those in the Middle East, China and Brazil, have been stacking up their greenbacks to counteract the dollar's weakness. Buying, or removing U.S. dollars from their local economies, has been an exercise in keeping their own currencies relatively weak, which boosts the economy by helping exports. Now, as the dollar starts to look up, there's less need for such central bank intervention.

Also, as commodity prices come down and a global economic slowdown begins to take hold, local governments may want to use at least some of the reserves to pay for public works projects and other job-creating ventures.

The central banks may "now have an opportunity to do something with the reserves," Turner noted.

Some countries are already being forced to part ways with their reserves as their currency feels the early effects of a stronger U.S. dollar.

South Korea's won is trading at a four-year low against the dollar as foreign investors ditch their won bets on worries over a global credit crisis and a slowing economy. The government has been selling dollars to support the won, shrinking its foreign-exchange reserves to the lowest mark in 15 months in July.

Meanwhile, the stronger dollar could also allow the U.S. government to renew pressure on China to allow its tightly-managed currency, the yuan, to appreciate, making U.S. exports to China more competitive. While the dollar was at record lows against the euro and multi-year lows against a host of other currencies, it was rather difficult for the U.S. to complain about China's weak currency.

A stronger yuan would probably have to come by way of less dollar purchases by China, which could stem, if not reduce, the buildup of foreign reserves by the People's Bank of China.

"The heavy purchases of dollars will have to stop at some point," said Robert Scott, global trade economist at the Economic Policy Institute, who said it might require "the mere threat of trade sanctions."

The PBOC doesn't disclose the composition of its reserves but Barclays Capital estimates around 65% are now denominated in dollars, mostly invested in U.S. Treasury bills.

Could anybody tell me the time of day for maximum volatility for the major currency pairs, or where I can find it for myself.

Much of what you need to know is in this thread header, Plateman.

Hil has gone to a lot of trouble over time - you'll have to study it.

The Three Musketeers look to be reunited again.

I didnt know about them first time around, where are they now Hils

Choc, can't see anywhere in my header that Hil has posted this information, all I have is a M5 GBP/USD chart and a calendar, should I have someting else?

Plateman - Things are usually (but not always) quiet during the overnight session although JPY AUD and NZD can be big movers between midnight and 2am due to news.

Currencies start to move as the Middle East and Europe get online around 6 to 7am.

Often the best moves can be experienced when London opens around 8am and volume really kicks in. There are many strategies based upon the London open. You can often find reversal of an overnight or European open move.

The greatest actual volatility is to be found around news events which are mostly scheduled. In the header you will see some items such as the German CPI this morning shown as 'HIGH'.

9:30 am is a good time for GB news to be announced. 13:30 and 15:00 are popular times for US news.

There is a big difference between playing the London open and attempting to trade a news event. If you expect your trade to be instantly processed during a major news event you may be very disappointed and very much out of pocket !

Welcome to the throng, Plateman.
All I can add at this point, I assume as a newcomer to Forex, is that you really don't want to be trading volatility.



And this just takes the biscuit!

LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. consumer confidence improved in August from a record low the previous month, but the slight recovery was due to short-term effects and shouldn't be seen as a turnaround in sentiment, market research firm GfK NOP said Friday.

The company's headline measure of consumer confidence rose to -36 from -39 in July, the first increase since January but still 32 points lower than August last year.

Market participants were expecting another deterioration to a fresh low of -41, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists last week.

"This improvement could be down to a number of recent factors, which are mostly of short-term influence, such as cheaper petrol offers, summer holidays happening or just a general feeling of things can't get any worse can they?" Rachael Joy, a research analyst on GfK NOP's consumer confidence team, said in a statement.

"In particular, winning gold medals in the Olympics seems to have had a lifting effect," she said.

The survey of 2,001 people, which was carried out on behalf of the European Commission Aug. 8-17, found the climate for major purchases deteriorated to a fresh record low.

But consumers' perception of the general economic situation over the last 12 months was stable, albeit at a low level of -69.

Consumers were also less pessimistic about their personal financial situation over the last 12 months and next 12 months and about the economy over the next 12 months.

The index measuring whether it was now a good time to save rose one point to +21.

Despite the slight improvement, the results of the survey support the view that the Bank of England's next interest-rate move will be downward, even though inflation is at its highest level for 16 years.

"We have seen a small improvement in consumer confidence in August, but this should not be seen as a turnaround in core sentiment," Joy said.

GfK NOP's headline measure of consumer confidence has fallen from -4 last August, when a meltdown in the U.S. subprime mortgage market triggered a credit crisis which has roiled financial markets and institutions and weighed on growth in many of the world's biggest economies. U.K. economic growth stalled in the second quarter.

Last month the measure hit its lowest point since the survey was launched in 1974 due to the ongoing toxic combination of falling housing prices, rising living costs and higher utility bills.

GfK NOP said a separate survey of 1,000 adults carried out August 22-24 found U.K. consumers were continuing to find ways to save money. More than one-third were buying supermarkets' own brands rather than branded goods, cutting back holiday travel plans, and going out less to pubs and restaurants.

Quento, many thanks for that very helpful answer, I've stopped trying to guess what the markets are going to do on news, now I just look at the indicators although I'll be watching open positions very carefully at newstimes.
Choc, perhaps I chose the wrong words, as a "newcomer" I certainly won't be trying to trade wildly volatile situations, perhaps I should have said "steady trends".

Wish you the best of beginners' luck, Plateman :)


$ may get whipped next week by storm Gustav

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar's month-long track toward recovery could be put to the test next week, first by Tropical Storm Gustav, and at the end of the week by the key U.S. jobs report.
But investors will also keep their eye on euro-zone data on growth, retail sales and manufacturing, and more signs of economic weakness in the euro zone and may provide offsetting support for the dollar. Also on tap next week are rate-setting meetings by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
For the first part of the Labor Day-shortened week, Gustav will certainly grab most of the headlines in currency markets, especially if it is bumped up to hurricane status.
If Gustav, like Hurricane Katrina three years ago, were to cause an extended shut-down of offshore oil platforms and refining facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, this could send crude futures prices soaring. Given recent trends, this would send the dollar lower.
Jitters over the approaching storm have thus far had little impact on the dollar, but with the rain and winds expected to hit U.S. coastal waters Monday or Tuesday, ABN Amro currency strategist Dustin Reid said "next week will be the key test."
He added: "The risk, of course, is that oil supplies decrease, sending spot and futures prices higher with a negative net impact for the dollar throughout the week."
Still, there's a feeling among traders that the extremely tight relationship between oil prices and the dollar during the past few weeks may have been a temporary phenomenon for August due to thin market conditions as many investors were away on vacation.
"There's a chance that we shift back (next week) to trade on a wider breadth than just the price of oil," said Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of currency strategy at Citigroup in New York. "As we get into September, I think (investors) may take a step back and decide what they believe for the dollar on big-picture basis."
With this as a backdrop, analysts said the euro is likely to trade next week in a range between $1.45 and $1.49, while the dollar against the yen is likely to move between Y107.50 and Y110.75.
Friday midday in New York, the euro was at $1.4717 from $1.4688 late Thursday, while the dollar was at Y108.54 from Y109.64. The euro was at Y159.77 from Y161.08, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.8248 from $1.8292, and the dollar was at CHF1.0989 from CHF1.1003 late Thursday.
The U.S. data week starts with a nationwide manufacturing report for August due Tuesday. That will be followed by some second-tier reports Wednesday and Thursday on the services sector. All of this leads up to Friday's pivotal report on U.S. nonfarm payrolls, which isn't expected to provide any of the positive surprises seen this past week.
The dollar may also run into some trouble when the European Central Bank meets Thursday to make a decision on interest rates.
Economists are forecasting the ECB will leave rates alone at 4.25%, but in a press conference after the decision, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet may further depress hopes that the bank is considering rate cuts.
Several ECB officials this week have suggested that talk of rate cuts to help the economy is premature, and Trichet's backing of this sentiment would likely benefit the euro.
Regarding the yen, analysts say its weeks-long trend of choppy, range-bound trading could remain intact next week, though downside risks to the dollar may slightly outweigh the upside. They say Japanese investors may begin to repatriate funds invested overseas amid further signs of a slowdown in the global economy.

-By Dan Molinski, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2245; dan.molinski@dowjones.com

Thanks Choccie, away on Monday, I'll be giving it a go Tuesday onwards.

Well, tried my luck today, 11 trades, all on EUR USD, +23, +30, -15, -25, -9, +13, -2, 0, -12, -4, and +9 for a net +8.

+ 8 is better than -8. Well done.

1.4510 exotic option expires tomorrow
September 3, 2008

Should EUR/USD backup toward 1.4510, there may be some selling related to a digital option which expires at that level at 10 am tomorrow morning. The owner of the option wants spot to trade below 1.4510 at expiry (and will recieve a $5 mln payout if it does, while the writer of the option will try and push the market higher (if it is close) to avoid the big payoutEUR/USD trades now near 1.4465 after rallying toward 1.4490 after stops were tripped above 1.4470.