This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

L2? It hit an intraday low of 52.25 due to the above news. Perhaps it will go lower!

I think they will recover later but market is slow and weak after BH

Nas futures -5



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (57.14%) 12 (66.97%) 1,469,308 52.59 - 53.09 724,792 (33.03%) 9 (42.86%)
5% (62.07%) 18 (75.24%) 2,627,739 52.23 - 53.23 864,792 (24.76%) 11 (37.93%)
10% (58.33%) 28 (72.08%) 3,906,239 51.96 - 53.92 1,513,415 (27.92%) 20 (41.67%)
15% (48.61%) 35 (73.53%) 5,311,309 51.15 - 54.46 1,911,635 (26.47%) 37 (51.39%)
50% (45.57%) 36 (67.60%) 5,811,309 50.63 - 55.90 2,785,109 (32.40%) 43 (54.43%)
100% (46.43%) 39 (67.28%) 5,831,429 50.57 - 56.06 2,835,801 (32.72%) 45 (53.57%)
all (45.35%) 39 (67.25%) 5,831,429 50.57 - 56.20 2,840,101 (32.75%) 47 (54.65%

This has indeed recovered quite dramatically to 54.25 inline with +ve US futures now.

Yes ..... intraday indicated a bottoming out from around 0900 hrs to just after 1000 hrs ....


nas uc - sector plus 0.67%





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (41.67%) 10 (44.33%) 775,828 53.90 - 54.73 974,349 (55.67%) 14 (58.33%)
5% (46.67%) 14 (58.35%) 1,416,970 53.71 - 54.76 1,011,449 (41.65%) 16 (53.33%)
10% (51.67%) 31 (79.75%) 5,280,988 52.72 - 55.13 1,340,669 (20.25%) 29 (48.33%)
15% (55.56%) 45 (77.06%) 7,609,658 52.01 - 56.67 2,264,839 (22.94%) 36 (44.44%)
50% (55.17%) 48 (77.72%) 7,964,558 51.84 - 56.70 2,283,143 (22.28%) 39 (44.83%)
100% (55.91%) 52 (78.43%) 8,484,678 51.39 - 56.88 2,333,835 (21.57%) 41 (44.09%)
all (54.74%) 52 (78.40%) 8,484,678 51.39 - 57.05 2,338,135 (21.60%) 43 (45.26%

late 3.9 mill buy now showing

Ains what does it look like now and will this close @55? I thought with the Varney quote this would stay down and hence have missed out on a great opportunity earlier. Currently↑2% @55.

The Varney thingy didn't help early on but the sector is holding it's own with exception of BT.

1.53 billion text messages were sent in Feb


Markets are marginally down but sector is up 0.35% and oom up 0.93% - chart intraday looks promising but subject to a market downturn



ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (48.28%) 14 (45.00%) 2,145,682 54.16 - 54.92 2,622,032 (55.00%) 15 (51.72%)
5% (45.24%) 19 (50.31%) 3,245,018 53.96 - 55.03 3,205,600 (49.69%) 23 (54.76%)
10% (44.44%) 36 (60.31%) 6,347,526 53.31 - 55.30 4,177,099 (39.69%) 45 (55.56%)
15% (46.30%) 50 (62.58%) 8,865,226 52.77 - 56.08 5,302,073 (37.42%) 58 (53.70%)
50% (48.67%) 55 (65.46%) 10,050,296 52.30 - 56.08 5,302,073 (34.54%) 58 (51.33%)
100% (49.58%) 59 (66.38%) 10,570,416 51.92 - 56.17 5,352,765 (33.62%) 60 (50.42%)
all (48.76%) 59 (66.37%) 10,570,416 51.92 - 56.24 5,357,065 (33.63%) 62 (51.24%)

fyi


Eire Cuts

38,000 go live! in Ireland

Vodafone Ireland has signed up 38,000 live! subscribers since the service was introduced on 6 November. Since then, more than 800,000 picture messages have been sent over the Irish network.

In addition, 50,000 Java games and 200,000 polyphonic ring tones were downloaded by customers to their handsets. There have been more than five million GPRS 'calls' to the Vodafone live! menu and 800,000 e-mails sent via Vodafone mail.

The Irish network's contribution to the group total is four per cent, which was hailed by Paul Donavan as a "tremendous achievement", indicating higher mobile usage levels in Ireland, compared with the rest of Europe.

A recent study of Irish mobile brand awareness by Millward Brown placed Vodafone at the top, with an 88 per cent total for spontaneous awareness, just 12 months after rebranding from rcell.

The survey showed that Vodafone was the best recognised brand - 'top of the mind' with 55 per cent of the sample (O2 achieved 23 per cent, and Meteor five per cent).

O2 scales back 3G roll-out

O2 ireland is proposing to cut its 3G roll-out costs in rural areas by adding EDGE technology to its existing infrastructure, reserving 3G for urban and other highly populated areas where bandwidth use is expected to be profitable.

There has been no response from regulator ComReg to the O2 submission, but it is unlikely to be enthusiastic at its attempt to modify a primary 3G licence obligation at such a late stage in the game - effectively reducing customer choice in rural areas. O2 Ireland is expected to achieve margin improvements in the second half of its financial year to 31 March 2003.

Pre-tax earnings from the Irish division rose 22 per cent in the six months to September. Turnover rose 11 per cent, helped by 43,000 new connections in the last quarter of 2002, bringing the number of customers on the O2 Irish network to 1.25 million.

Meteor queries roaming rule

Hot on the heels of O2's submission to ComReg over modifying its 3G roll-out, Meteor Mobile is unimpressed that it has not received a response concerning incumbent networks providing national roaming.

Meteor has called again for the regulator to look at the issue. The proposal is that Meteor would have access to competitors' rural networks. In return it would provide bandwidth to these networks in urban areas to relieve congestion.

"They don't want to admit it, but Vodafone and O2 have capacity problems", said Meteor Mobile corporate affairs director Andrew Kelly.

Meanwhile, Meteor has launched a media campaign and marketing offensive to change the perception of Meteor as a network with only urban coverage. Print and TV commercials are already running, but these appear to be more brand awareness-driven than an attempt to sell the network to potential customers.

Analysts suggest that Hutchison 3G is considering an acquisition of Meteor's GSM network as a base for future activities in the Republic, but the networks themselves continue to deny the idea. Meteor Mobile has just four per cent market share.

Mayo partnerships

C&C Cellular, claimed to be County Mayo's largest mobile retailer, has announced a partnership arrangement with O2 Ireland.

C&C has six retail outlets in Mayo - operating from Ballina, Westport, Ballinrobe, Swinford, Castlebar and Claremorris. O2 will continue to invest in improving mobile communications in Mayo with a view to sustaining growth and innovation in the region.

3G lands in N Ireland

Three counties in Northern Ireland now have access to 3G services; Antrim, Down and Derry. Hutchison 3G's 3 network is providing its high bandwidth video services across most of Belfast, as far south as Lisburn along the M1, and north along the M2 to Antrim town.

Derry also has primary coverage within the city, but this presently hands over to the O2 GSM network, as service between Derry and Belfast is not contiguous. Like the UK, congestion is unlikely to be a problem. A quick poll of Ulster dealers revealed nobody had handsets in stock. Coverage in the south of the province is not expected until December at the earliest, according to Vodafone's Paul Donovan.

Rugby texting

O2 has launched a text initiative designed to generate a million 'good luck' messages for the Irish Rugby Team. The person who sends the most creative 'good luck' text will win a trip for two to see Ireland play Australia in Perth on June 7. O2 will contribute 17c to the IRFU Charitable Trust for every text message received.

Fans text the word PERTH, followed by 53101. Each message sent will cost a maximum of 61c. O2's Gerry McQuaid, commented:

"We are proud sponsors of Irish Rugby at both national and local levels and we expect our initiative will generate over a million 'good luck' messages for the Irish team between now and May 24".





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (45.45%) 15 (50.84%) 2,373,376 54.19 - 55.14 2,295,229 (49.16%) 18 (54.55%)
5% (40.00%) 20 (53.98%) 3,472,712 53.99 - 55.33 2,960,855 (46.02%) 30 (60.00%)
10% (46.25%) 37 (66.48%) 6,575,220 53.35 - 55.47 3,314,802 (33.52%) 43 (53.75%)
15% (48.57%) 51 (67.36%) 9,092,920 52.82 - 56.35 4,405,276 (32.64%) 54 (51.43%)
50% (50.91%) 56 (70.00%) 10,277,990 52.34 - 56.35 4,405,276 (30.00%) 54 (49.09%)
100% (51.72%) 60 (70.79%) 10,798,110 51.97 - 56.45 4,455,968 (29.21%) 56 (48.28%)
all (50.85%) 60 (70.77%) 10,798,110 51.97 - 56.54 4,460,268 (29.23%) 58 (49.15%)

moving ahead quite nicely now as the FTSE gets going northwards

This was from earlier this morning .....

Williams de Broe takes a negative stance on European mobile phone stocks with sell ratings for Orange, mmO2 and Vodafone

This seems to have overcome morning weakness & getting really strong. Does L2 +ve?

seems to be a pattern




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (38.71%) 12 (39.06%) 1,179,180 56.13 - 56.93 1,839,449 (60.94%) 19 (61.29%)
5% (42.11%) 16 (38.48%) 1,425,034 56.03 - 57.04 2,278,013 (61.52%) 22 (57.89%)
10% (56.06%) 37 (60.95%) 4,344,568 55.17 - 57.23 2,783,493 (39.05%) 29 (43.94%)
15% (61.45%) 51 (64.55%) 5,101,576 54.82 - 57.25 2,801,797 (35.45%) 32 (38.55%)
50% (59.77%) 52 (64.23%) 5,301,576 54.64 - 57.65 2,952,489 (35.77%) 35 (40.23%)
100% (61.96%) 57 (65.59%) 5,626,596 54.21 - 57.65 2,952,489 (34.41%) 35 (38.04%)
all (60.64%) 57 (65.55%) 5,626,596 54.21 - 57.78 2,956,789 (34.45%) 37 (39.36%

Again has overcome morning weakness & getting stronger. Is L2 +ve or will it go <56?

Markets have turned again after a neg opening - Nas futures are marginally down but talk on oil situation is +

I think we will tend to slightly outperform the market. Sector is up 0.7% - FTSE up 0.06% OOM down 1.3% at this time @ 57p after 55p earlier.


ains





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (40.74%) 11 (45.04%) 1,574,166 56.45 - 57.18 1,920,977 (54.96%) 16 (59.26%)
5% (41.67%) 15 (44.63%) 2,105,608 56.29 - 57.37 2,612,130 (55.37%) 21 (58.33%)
10% (47.17%) 25 (50.86%) 2,832,408 55.92 - 57.45 2,736,730 (49.14%) 28 (52.83%)
15% (50.00%) 34 (47.13%) 3,192,556 55.59 - 58.28 3,581,999 (52.87%) 34 (50.00%)
50% (50.68%) 37 (53.64%) 4,202,521 54.44 - 58.37 3,632,691 (46.36%) 36 (49.32%)
100% (53.25%) 41 (53.78%) 4,227,541 54.34 - 58.37 3,632,691 (46.22%) 36 (46.75%)
all (51.90%) 41 (53.75%) 4,227,541 54.34 - 58.48 3,636,991 (46.25%) 38 (48.10%)

10:08 Thursday 24th April 2003
Reuters


Telecoms companies reported their earnings this week, signals indicate that the worst may be over
A ray of light broke through the gloomy telecommunications sector on Wednesday as earnings results from a number of companies demonstrated their ability to manage through a difficult environment.

Long-distance telephone company AT&T and BellSouth both swung to a profit in the first quarter, despite lower revenues, on reduced costs and capital spending.



Nextel Communications, the fifth-largest wireless telephone company, posted a 21 percent jump in revenue, thanks to its unique walkie-talkie-like service, popular with big-spending business customers.

Even troubled equipment maker Lucent Technologies posted a narrower-than-expected loss as its revenue grew sequentially and it posted strong profit margins.

The shares of all three companies rose, as did the North American Telecommunications Index.

The gains repaired the sector's sell-off earlier in the week, after Sprint, the No. 4 US long-distance company, posted weak first-quarter revenues and cut its earnings and revenue forecasts for the year.

After the market closed, wireless operator AT&T Wireless Services and cell phone chipmaker Qualcomm posted solid quarterly results on higher revenues.

The beginning of a turnaround?
"We think the bear market's over," said Nicholas Gerber, portfolio manager of Ameristock Mutual Fund. "In the bear market, any bad news gets exaggerated and any good news gets discounted. Now we're beginning to see a change of that. Bad news still gets exaggerated, but so does good news."

"The big question is, 'Is this the beginning of the rising tide that lifts all ships?" said independent telecommunications analyst Jeff Kagan.

"Unless you believe that telecoms is irrelevant in the future, which no one believes, you've got to believe that there's going to come an inflection point," he said.

The telecommunications industry has been undergoing a period of transition as people spend less time on traditional phones and more time on email and cell phones. High-speed Internet networks have been cutting into the number of telephone access lines in service.

Local telephone companies have entered the long-distance market with aggressive price promotions and discounted packages of local, long-distance, Internet and wireless services.

Meanwhile, a slowdown in the economy has caused telecommunications companies to cut back on capital spending, hurting equipment companies like Lucent. Competition among cell phone operators has intensified amid slowing customer growth.

New York-based AT&T said earnings from continuing operations rose 18.6 percent to $529m (332m), widely beating analysts' expectations. The company said its full-year results would meet or beat its previous forecasts.

"While the trend line is still negative as far as revenue declines go, it's fair to say that things seem to be stabilising," said Raj Dave, a debt analyst with Commerzbank Securities.

Nextel reports 'incredible quarter'
Atlanta-based BellSouth, the dominant local phone company in nine Southeastern states from Kentucky to Florida, said earnings, excluding one-time items, fell but still beat analysts' estimates.

Including its Cingular Wireless joint venture with SBC Communications, revenue fell 4 percent to $6.9bn. Cingular increased its revenue slightly while adding 189,000 new customers after two straight quarters of losses.

Reston, Virginia-based Nextel posted a quarterly profit that widely beat analyst expectations as customer turnover fell to a four-year low.

"What an incredible first quarter, especially in light of Sprint's poor numbers," said Todd Bernier, wireless analyst with Morningstar. "They continually are grabbing share."

Nextel's results contrasted sharply with the No. 4 US wireless operator Sprint, which posted a wider loss and revenue that fell short of expectations.

Lucent reported a slightly wider second-quarter loss, but earnings before one-time items also topped Wall Street's expectations.

AT&T Wireless on Wednesday posted a first-quarter profit and revenues rose as its customer base increased.

Qualcomm posted a higher net profit and revenue, helped by demand for its advanced cell phone chips that allow users to surf the Web at high speeds.

Shares of AT&T closed up $3.20, or 23.2 percent, at $17.01, where they were the second-most actively-traded issue.

BellSouth closed up $2.50, or 11.5 percent, at $24.21, and Lucent rose 4 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $1.72. Nextel shares rose $1.32, or 10.7 percent, to $13.67 on the Nasdaq.

Overall, the North American Telecommunications Index rose 6.5 percent, compared with an increase of less than 1 percent by the broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

(Additional reporting by Ben Klayman in Chicago and Jessica Hall in Philadelphia)

Is L2 weaker and will O2 go <56? Also do you think the recent 11.5M trades were sells?

Not sure I saw them ..... total vol is only 45 million - there were a couple of 1 mill buys earlier. L2 looks weak at this time witg sets showing the buy orders around half the sells. Seems to be follwing the market - US futures have worsened and nas now -9.5 and dow off 61 points.

We could test 55p again but happy to hold at this time.

ains




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (58.33%) 14 (35.11%) 1,070,502 55.69 - 56.63 1,978,798 (64.89%) 10 (41.67%)
5% (54.84%) 17 (35.11%) 1,660,716 55.46 - 56.81 3,069,723 (64.89%) 14 (45.16%)
10% (47.54%) 29 (29.86%) 2,747,216 54.94 - 57.33 6,453,861 (70.14%) 32 (52.46%)
15% (48.00%) 36 (32.14%) 3,097,664 54.69 - 57.36 6,541,365 (67.86%) 39 (52.00%)
50% (49.35%) 38 (33.55%) 3,302,564 54.39 - 57.36 6,541,365 (66.45%) 39 (50.65%)
100% (50.00%) 41 (33.51%) 3,322,684 54.28 - 57.42 6,592,057 (66.49%) 41 (50.00%)
all (48.81%) 41 (33.50%) 3,322,684 54.28 - 57.48 6,596,357 (66.50%) 43 (51.19%)

Early morning dip again ......

Is L2 weaker and will O2 go <54.5? Also what do you think it will close at today?

Telecom sector is a litle weak this morning - along wit the general market

US futures are marginally off - ahead of weekend

OOm is under-performing but would expect a recovery against the market - I think a close around 55p.

L2 is around evens at this time - talk of another BR cut maybe



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (66.67%) 20 (69.46%) 1,782,127 54.27 - 54.91 783,543 (30.54%) 10 (33.33%)
5% (62.16%) 23 (61.13%) 2,320,927 54.09 - 55.19 1,475,957 (38.87%) 14 (37.84%)
10% (60.42%) 29 (56.31%) 2,510,527 54.01 - 55.59 1,947,818 (43.69%) 19 (39.58%)
15% (44.78%) 30 (47.79%) 2,710,527 53.72 - 56.72 2,960,806 (52.21%) 37 (55.22%)
50% (46.38%) 32 (54.09%) 3,488,211 52.66 - 56.72 2,960,806 (45.91%) 37 (53.62%)
100% (47.30%) 35 (53.81%) 3,508,331 52.56 - 56.86 3,011,498 (46.19%) 39 (52.70%)
all (46.05%) 35 (53.77%) 3,508,331 52.56 - 56.99 3,015,798 (46.23%) 41 (53.95%