www.blackrockoilandgasplc.co.uk
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Presentation from Thursday 6th July 06 can be seen on oilbarrel !


Monterey appraisal well suspended pending Wintershall evaluation. 1/12/06
BLR and Kappa in dispute.
BLR to meet with Kappa within next two weeks 1/12/06

Cynic

Your commennts from above do not do yourself justice. How and why would your heavy oils comment bare any significance to investing in this company? The reward for finding heavy oils is as you point out less than finding sweet crude. But even finding light oils does not gaurantee top dollar. Secondly cost of transportion to refinery bares significance to the rewards of finding oil of any type. The last and most important is how much movement to the share price would a commercial find of any type mean.

Regards

Dr Square - depends on the starting point of the stock; an over-simplification I know ...... it seems to me that in many instances, stocks get hyped on scant evidence.

If I may use ELP as a good example ...... This has never been more than a blue sky company (my opinion of it and its management are irrelevant), but around January from memory, the world and his wife decided it was time to jump on board just because ELP were going to drill a good prospective well ...... The world and his wife took it to mean that finding commercial quantities of oil were almost a foregone conclusion ..... IMO, most of that "find" was factored into the price when it went close to 50p ..... In the event, a duster was the result, with sp crashing back to <20p.

The converse is also to be found in many shares when there is relatively unexpected good news ...... MPH has been interesting to follow in that respect of late.

As for BLR, I took a look at the company, and though it is quite interesting, especially in the light of very high (light!) crude prices, I cannot and do not see anything that warrants great excitement, though I guess with such a low sp, one's losses cannot or should not be that great, even if all goes pear shaped.

I am not sure that I have answered your question, but at least I have attempted to.

Thanks Cynic

I bought ELP at 42p for the sole purpose of unloading a lot a couple of days latter and running the rest as a free play. What you may of missed with ELP is that it was to prove up a possible play type. If Jaguar had come in the risk of the other 2 plays would have diminished by multiples and so the company would have increased significantly above the immediate oil in the ground effect.

As for BLR at the current moment it is not flavour of the month with myself. Colombia as you rightly say will not return the sums that a light oil field discovery would but it will provide revenue hopefully above costs? stopping the possibility of immediate recievership and underpinning the share price.

Why I am not happy with BLR is the fact that they do have the Monterey field. The rig is due to spud at the end of JUNE and would be worth a multiple of the market cap. The field is proven at 165, flow rates are the key to a commercial find. and they have been busy raising funds for a 5 million barrel field?? Have we the money for the North SEA? AGM presentation said 3 million for all commitments that is including 2 holes in the North Sea. But all we seem to get is Arce. This is in my opion not in the best interest of the share holders.

Dave-w? Have a good time. I hope to be able to have another holiday from my profits in this.

Regards

I won't dwell on ELP, though I made money on it both short and long ..... It is one of my whipping boys!

For what it is worth, have just taken a postion in SEY ..... and also hold several other speculative stocks - sorry; stocks of great potential! - in addition to more solid stuff (BUR, BARC etc)

Cynic, I'm not sure that the gap between light and heavy crude prices is so great as to be a detracting factor. We're hardly talking about the difference between Armani and C&A here.

As I pointed out in a previous post, WH Ireland reckoned on BLR making $25 per barrel net of costs - given that the report was published at the beginning of last October I guess they were using $50 a barrel max. It could have been as low as $40 in the light of comments they made at the end of their report when evaluating the NAV.

I agree with Dr. Square's argument about the effect on the SP - that's the thing to be concentrating on - in which case your argument about the starting point of the stock becomes relevant because BLR has been neglected and oversold, IMO.

Merely expressing my view .... No prob :)

cynic / Soul

What a refreshing change to debate rather than get punch drunk. Nice to see you in SEY short or long? I got burnt big time on ELP the RNS arrived a day early for me. LOL glad you took some of it.

Now the heavy oil factor is an interesting one. OPecs alledged 2 million barrels a day spare capacity? Now this is dearly needed and was last year. I have read the possible reason why this has not been used is because it is heavy oil. Before we all get to scared that is down to refinery specifications. I am only new to this game and am learning all the time. BLR are close to a refinery that deals with heavy oil it is partnered with a firm that owns its own rigs etc, etc the model is good IMHO. The management I reserve judgement.

Cynic I agree with you if I am reading you right. People seem to be jumping on anything with oil in its name.

I will say this share is not for widows and orphans.

Regards

Excellent posts today. Regards goal.

After an exceptionally fine dinner, I am not as compus mentis as I should be, so will come back tomorrow ... Meanwhile, lest you should worry, I am long of SEY

guess these arent the same black rock oil shares that are being bought out by shell canada. oh well will have to carry on working for a living. btw: is there any relation with the company black rock that has been bought other than the name?

I'm prepared to stick my neck out and say there is no connection, Rob. Black Rock is a popular name. CAN$24 a share, though, would do nicely :o)

Interesting to see that the other Black Rock is also a heavy oil play. Reading their recent quarterlies, I see that they mention the discount at which heavy oil trades compared with WTI. Last year it was up to $28 per barrel, but now is down to around $18 - $20, giving them a price of around $40 - $45 per barrel at the time of their reporting.

That's a bigger discount than I thought (apologies to Cynic!) but whether such a discount applies to the oil that BLR is producing in Colombia remains to be seen - the Canadian company doesn't mention an API grade. At current crude prices, we would still see $50 per barrel or thereabouts.

I remain optimistic about our BLR's prospects; here's hoping there's good news soon.

Soul

Sold out Friday. So all the best hope it comes of and I have to post a well done, I got it wrong message.

Regards

Sorry to see you go, Doc - now it's just me and Bruce on the BLR bench, apparently!

Keep playing the patience game, is what I'm telling myself, after a week of fruitless faffing elsewhere in my portfolio. Looking forward to that Arce news . . .

Have held now for 3.5 years and another six months is probably the most exciting for BLR in that time so holding till then but sorry you have sold out DR Square and hope you dont live to regret it but then again I may regret holding another six months. Good luck.

soul trader,
I am still hanging in with this one too. I am running at a loss so far [in at 1.53 and 1.5] but I feel sure the SP must go up sometime.
Alex

Hope it goes up also as I was in at 2.3p (did my usual stupid thing of buying at the top of a spike only for it to straight down again!)

Everyones bin there at some point....:-(

RobertAlexander -I think you've probably done fairly well if you have got in at around average 1.5p. That's about my average cost too. There have been very few opportunities to get in much cheaper, and the wide spread makes the paper loss look a bit dramatic at the moment.

I agree with Rutherford that now is the most exciting time - and think how far BLR has come after all those dusters in Australia.

Pity about the beating all the E&P's are taking today, but quality will come out in the end - I hope BLR is one of the winners.

SP still a bit choppy, but apparently up off the day's low of 0.9p. On a dummy trade I was just quoted 1.15p to buy vs 1.03 to sell at present which makes for the tightest spread for a while.

spread alot better now ;-) Whilst it lasts.