Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

StockMarketWire.com
Citigroup has downgraded its recommendation on Thomas Cook Group (LON:TCG) to "sell" from "neutral" given the recent strong share price performance. The City broker has a 40 pence target price on the stock. Diluted earnings per share estimates have been increased to 6.5 pence (from 6.0 pence) for 2014 and 8.1 pence (from 6.0 pence) for 2015. UBS upgraded its recommendation to "buy" from "neutral" on Friday predicting a potential capital increase following the recent share performance. (See http://www.brokerforecasts.com/news/article/articleId/4526400). Shares in Thomas Cook Group have increased in value by a massive 157 per cent in the last three months. Analyst James Ainley said: "Thomas Cook's share price was one of the best performers in the sector in 2012 as new management appointments restored confidence in the group"s ability to drive a recovery in earnings and avoid covenant breaches. Further cost reductions have been announced and these drive our 2014-2015 EPS [Earnings Per Share] upgrades but historically these have been absorbed by trading declines and a coherent plan to deliver a long term sustainable future has yet to be articulated. Any potential equity fund raising could further dilute EPS which may not be fully offset by additional cost savings. Following the strong share price performance we downgrade to a Sell."

UBS upgraded Thomas Cook to “buy” from “neutral”. Thomas Cook’s share price has climbed more than 400% from its lows in November 2011, UBS said. Notably, it has gained more than 100% since its full-year 2012 update when management talked positively about the turnaround in the business, UBS added.

“Whilst there has been little additional concrete detail regarding the turnaround plans, the share price move has brought into play the realistic prospect of a meaningful capital increase,” UBS analysts said. ends

I originally bought these at 22p, topped up on two of the dips and have no intention of selling. Share price is right on the resistance point of 58p at the moment, if it gets through that the next target is 75p.

Could easily do that DB this afternoon with DOW futures up 50 plus at moment.

Certainly been some very good friday afternoons in the last 2 months.

MARKET REPORT: Thomas Cook is going places after UBS upgrade

By Rob Davies

PUBLISHED:22:32, 25 January 2013| UPDATED:09:48, 26 January 2013


It's freezing brass monkeys outside and the nation’s schools have been transformed into intensive germ factories, spreading misery via the most effective biological weapon known to man – children on public transport.
Little wonder then that the thoughts of City analysts seem to be turning to the summer holidays already.


Thomas Cook was going places after UBS upgraded its recommendation on the 172-year-old tour operator from neutral to buy.


The company is still charting its road back to health after being saved from collapse by its banks in late-2011.

As a result, one of Britain’s best-known brand names is still suffering the ignominy of rubbing shoulders with the minnows down in the murky depths of the small caps.

But UBS thinks Thomas Cook could be on the right path back to the sunny uplands of recovery before very long.


Its share price has doubled since full-year results in December, when new boss Harriet Green spoke confidently about her recovery plan.


The rise has made a cash call possible ‘at a level that would not be prohibitively dilutive to earnings’, said UBS, suggesting that a rights issue of around £450million is a possibility.


They believe ‘it could be well-received and help accelerate the recovery as well as lower financial risk’.


While revenues are likely to shrink this year, they should return to growth in 2014, while management’s profit forecasts are ‘conservative’, given the potential for raising efficiency savings above a planned £100million.


A first-quarter update is due on February 7, when investors will be eager to learn more about new broom Harriet Green’s spring cleaning plans. UBS stuck a 75p target price on the stock, which climbed 4p to 59.25p.

Yep just seen this in todayds Mail, good article should help monday.

Have u posted it across the road?.

The link was posted there early this morning by another poster, gf.

Just a note of caution though, that the trading statement in early feb may not be as good as hoped for. Have taken profit as not confident that the potential upside outweighs the downside.

Agree TC, I did the same, plus the fact that I am on a tcg hol in Egypt for the next few weeks. Little sun so far, but full tcg planes, so will buy back on any dip. H

I sold half on the 22nd (post 337), which is normally a guarantee that the price will continue up!

You have my way of thinking skinny, sell half and if they go up you only have to cry about half of them, or indeed if they go down then you only have to cry about the half you are left with. :-)) Good thinking selling half and well done on these.

Next target 75p. I don't agree with your assessment HARRYCAT and the trading statement will be a realistic assessment of where the company is going.

It was just a note of caution, especially if you also consider that the markets are probably due a correction soon. Each to their own strategy and good luck to those who are content to hold.

i'm out at 64 and thank you very much .... i suspect a bear squeeze but also feel that sp has gone far enough especially with a cash call heavily flagged

Hmmm.

"hmmm" is mine - stop plagiarising :-)

Hmmm ™ - I don't think so! :-)

Positive noises coming from the U.S. and economists generally are sounding more bullish about 2013.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/01/28/stocks-monday-1-28/1869845/

In auction +10.1%

looks like a lot of hard-squeezed balls! ..... now 65.25/65.5