Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

Click HERE to visit me at FXtechnicals.net

Yeh thx Chris. I closed the FTSE short ten minutes ago for +40. Its right on a flagline, which i'm watching closely. I might get a validation trigger candle tonight which, if so, means more short side will be nailed on...

I closed @ 5710.5 + 24 cheers again.

That was some comeback on the Dow, didn't trade it scares the shxt out of me :O)

Lol! Yep, that's why i closed short, still expecting much more downside but will wait to see if i get the set-up in the morning. Dow has been a bit jumpy today though!

Further to post 10;

Looks like a possible 1&2 with wave 3 soon;



Complete conflict to last nights thoughts, however, i don't particularly like the structure of wave 1, with the retrace roughly halfway, however, even if an 'AB' of a corrective move, we should still head higher for a 'C' wave.
Biased long, but a break of either black line will make it more obvious.

There again, the FTSE doesn't look similar and looks more like this;



meaning an ABC on the Dax (with 'C' to come)... lets see

Somewhere along the lines of this fits;



I have a small DAX long with stop at 6630 (pip underneath point 'B')

Bigger version of 'A';

Given up on the Euro some time ago. Not trending nicely at all and has an algo in play that gives me an entry right into a corrective move, so straight into a loss almost to stop out before turning. here is a perfect example of this, (despite it looking like a valid set-up, i can do without the stress!) The algo comes and goes, but it hasn't been flavour of the month for a while now;

Didn't think this was likely when i thought about it earlier, but now seems it is a possibility;

Poss daily count, Euro;

Alternative Dow;

Looking for a bullish day on Monday to give a nice set-up. here i'm looking for an hourly candle to finish at 6775 area and give a target of low 6900's, within the next two sessions...

Obviously complete contrast between the last two charts, so i need the market to show its hand. Will post an exact set-up as it happens. No trigger, no trade. Discipline and patience are equally as important as reading charts in a traders world.

Fridays action on the Dax (in particular) was puzzling if it was indeed to be as i had labeled it (a 'i'&'ii' leading to (sub)wave 'iii'), (bigger red circle);



Although powering up in the morning, there was simply no continuance. I was expecting something like i have shown, but instead we got the action within the blue circle, which was at least a red flag so to speak.



I closed the long and although i was tempted to re-enter as it drifted down in the evening, i thought it better to wait for more evidence.
Well, from the off this morning it looked like the alternative count was indeed the way forward, (this on the Dow, but they all make the main moves roughly in conjunction with one another);



Sure enough i got a short trigger on the FTSE at 08:01 and would consider we have quite a way to drop over the coming week. Perhaps a little too early to make that assumption, so the first requirement is a LL on the Dax (6529 req'd)

Updated FTSE probability;



The only thing i don't like is that, again, its not very easy to make an obvious 5wave counter with 'A' and subsequent abc 3wave for 'B', (should be a 5-3-5). Certainly tricky right now and thus it best to keep taking small profits as and when the market gives the next clue. Trying to second guess the longer move right now, is simply not possible, with far too many connotations.

Now have a system generated Dow target, but trusting these whilst in complex corrective waves is dangerous, so small short position for now and would look out for a possible retest of the underneath of the lower TL;

Just trialling a small tweak and want to see how price reacts at targets (if at all)...

Ok, so using this as a diary to log my thought process. I have a system that works perfectly during trends, being able to dictate a TP (target price) with a very high success rate and thus, have never bothered trading the corrective moves as the chop makes it somewhat unreliable, however, i have deemed it necessary to continue to trade such times as they can indeed last for months. This has seen me have to concentrate more on studying Elliott Wave. It is obvious that you can't try to predict too far ahead during complex correctives, due to the endless connotations available to the market, however, it is very useful indeed to have a plan beforehand and then to reduce the timescales and look for shorter term set-ups. Here's a chart of the £/Yen that i have labelled... My thoughts with regard to the recent gain is that it is still corrective and we will see lower to come after completing a 'B' wave, however, i'm struggling to label last weeks rise as a full 5 waves. I thought the pullback today might be a 'iv', however it just doesn't fit and rather think this is as per the chart. Lets see how it plays out and at least i can compare afterwards to see where i went wrong...

(or curse that i never traded it, if it plays out correctly!)

Lets revisit this one;

Davai - 19 Apr 2012 18:44 - 18 of 39 edit this post

Just a spectator to this one as i missed the entry, target of 19,875;



Update; (target achieved);