Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

Excelent article Andy thanks for sharing it.

net cash position....... very nice.

Negative start but ive gone in for more.

Recently tends to start from a low base and then builds up over the day.

Just about to turn positive, fingers crossed.

Lovely move into positive blue land.

Reckon the yanks lowering interest rates will see a movement into oil stocks later today and then OPEC cut forecast for tomorrow will add even more push behind oil stocks.

Hoping to see this one move around 15% to 20% in the next month or so.

Full Broker Forecasts for Dana make for Bullish reading....

Dana Petroleum PLC

FORECASTS
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Oriel Securities
15-12-08 ADD 240.70 125.30 153.90 79.70

Exane BNP Paribas
15-12-08 BUY 238.00 111.50 141.00 65.30

Evolution Securities Ltd
01-12-08 BUY 388.00 203.20 640.70 335.70

Numis Securities Ltd
27-11-08 BUY 182.80 137.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
24-11-08 HOLD 263.06 132.11 201.96 109.74

ABN AMRO
29-08-08 BUY 406.73 186.67 430.17 198.28

2008 2009
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 245.66 150.49 184.27 102.83
1 Month Change -22.31 17.08 -1.65 -21.64
3 Month Change -101.43 -17.28 -171.32 -85.57


GROWTH
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)

Norm. EPS 79.64% 76.03% -31.67%
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)

EBITDA 215.90m 396.65m 358.93m
EBIT 161.58m 250.00m 155.00m
Dividend Yield % % %
Dividend Cover x x x
PER 11.57x 6.57x 9.62x
PEG 0.14f 0.09f -0.30f
Net Asset Value PS 102.73p 648.57p 778.24p

16/12/2008

Saudis say 2 million barrel production cut likely
By ADAM SCHRECK 24 minutes ago

ORAN, Algeria (AP) OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia said Tuesday that the oil cartel would cut production by about 2 million barrels a day to halt a precipitous fall in prices.

Oil minister Ali Naimi said "supply is still somewhat in excess of demand" and global stockpiles are higher than normal, reflecting comments made earlier by OPEC President Chakib Khelil and other delegates.

"Of course, to bring things in balance, there will be a cut ... to the tune of about 2 million barrels," Naimi said.

OPEC is not slated to officially announce a decision on production levels until Wednesday.

Saudi Arabia, by far the largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, usually sets the tone on production cuts and other major policy decisions.

The presence of a high-level delegation from nonmember Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer, and the bleak outlook OPEC painted in its latest market report only added to investors' hopes that coordinated action would be taken to stop crude's rapid slide from the record it hit in July above $147 a barrel.

While the near 70 percent drop in oil prices from their summer highs is good news for drivers already straining from the financial crisis, members of the 13-nation OPEC are hurting from levels that are now in some cases below what's needed to balance their budgets or earn a profit at some production sites.

Oil producers fear a drawn-out lull in prices could hurt investment and lay the groundwork for another sharp price spike when national economies rebound from the current, widespread recession.

"What is important is that there should be a consensus to cut production. A significant cut," Venezuela's energy minister said after arriving in Algeria's second-largest city.

Rafael Ramirez, whose country ranks among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' price hawks, added that Venezuela favors a cut of between 1 million to 2 million barrels per day.

OPEC gave ministers ammunition to justify cuts in its latest monthly market report, released Tuesday. The bloc predicted demand for its crude oil fell by 700,000 barrels per day this year, and will drop by at least twice that amount in 2009 as the worsening global economy "is expected to have a strong impact on oil demand."

On Monday, OPEC President Chakib Khelil hinted at the magnitude OPEC is considering by evoking the group's last Algeria meeting four years ago, where "we reduced by 2 million barrels."

Associated Press writers George Jahn and Alfred de Montesquiou in Oran contributed to this rep

Hoping this one does well out of the lowering of US interest rates.

Investors turning from the dollar to invest in oil.

gf why with global demand likely to fall rapidly in 2009?

History as always dictated that fact, and the dollar could prove to be worthless going forward in an extreme situation with roaring deflation.

Of course history is there to be overturned but ill be suprised if this happens, oil and gold it should read.

Recent broker comment on Dana...

Goldman Sachs Dana Petroleum, buy target of 15.28

Deutsche Bank, in a review of oil exploration companies, has a buy for Tullow, its top pick, cutting target to 720p from 755p, a buy for Cairn Energy, cutting target to 28.60 from 28.95, a buy for Dana Petroleum, cutting target to 13.35 from 14.80.

A lot of buys coming through..

Can't really understand why with oil dropping like a stone. Brent seems less affected than Nymex for some reason

looks like a opportunity for trading opened up with the Russians and the Israelis going for it.

Got a order to buy in tomorrow.

looks like a opportunity for trading opened up with the Russians and the Israelis going for it.

Got a order to buy in tomorrow.

glad xmas and new year out of way......... thank goodness.......... was on brink of alcholic madness.

DNX Looking even tastier now.

If your interested dont get suckered with the big spread with this one on opening in first half hour or so...........

http://www.oil-price.net/

Interesting to see paribas have slapped a Buy rating on this one very recently....

Dana Petroleum PLC

FORECASTS
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Exane BNP Paribas
30-12-08 BUY 238.00 111.50 141.00 65.30

Moving up nicely now.

The short term sp of Oil will help caused by the conflict of the middle east and the ruskys not playing ball with the ukrains.

Brought to my attention on another board, we should be in for a upgrade briefing from dana management at any time..........

09.12.08 :+25.5, (825.5) RBS cuts its price targets in the sector. It cuts BowLeven PLC to 200p from 320p; rating buy. Cairn Energy PLC to 2850p from 3000p; rating buy. Dana Petroleum PLC to 1495p from 1800p; rating buy. Premier Oil PLC to 1000p from 1200p; rating add. Salamander Energy to 195p from 245p; rating add. Soco International PLC to 1850p from 1950p; rating buy. Tullow Oil PLC to 950p from 1030p; rating buy and Venture Production PLC to 495p from 750p; rating add.

08-12-08 08.12.08 :+25, (795) Deutsche Bank cuts prices in the oil & gas sector. It cut Tullow Oil price target to 720p from 755p; rating buy, Cairn Energy price target to 2860p from 2895p; rating buy, Dana Petroleum price target to 1335p from 1480p; rating buy, JKX Oil and Gas price target to 365p from 370p; rating buy, Premier Oil price target to 1360p from 1455p; rating buy and Venture Production price target to 425p from 490p; rating hold.

28-11-08 28.11.08: -18, (870.5) an article in the Times reports: Dana Petroleum rose 44p to 890.5p a day after it briefed investors, and appeared to talk of a sizeable reserve upgrade by the end of the year

Full broker recos.....

Dana Petroleum PLC

FORECASTS
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Exane BNP Paribas
30-12-08 BUY 238.00 111.50 141.00 65.30

Oriel Securities
24-12-08 ADD 240.70 125.30 153.90 79.70

Numis Securities Ltd
19-12-08 BUY 141.00 33.00

Hanson Westhouse
16-12-08 BUY

Evolution Securities Ltd
01-12-08 BUY 388.00 203.20 640.70 335.70

ABN AMRO
29-08-08 BUY 406.73 186.67 430.17 198.28

2008 2009
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 239.36 126.04 174.13 68.26
1 Month Change -16.95 -27.59 -7.95 -59.44
3 Month Change -110.25 -42.83 -140.23 -119.97


GROWTH
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
Norm. EPS 79.64% 47.43% -45.84%
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
EBITDA £215.90m £486.70m £541.87m
EBIT £161.58m £250.00m £155.00m
Dividend Yield % % %
Dividend Cover x x x
PER 11.60x 7.87x 14.53x
PEG 0.15f 0.17f -0.32f
Net Asset Value PS 102.73p 645.17p 767.24p