any comments, thoughts, on this stock.

You are really brave, cynic. Good luck!

it was a bit wasn't it! ..... anyway, i have in place guaranteed stops so any loss is limited ...... meanwhile, headlines in telegraph say the shareholders will get zilch and sp is down 15 this morning .... actually pretty surprised it is not more

Yeah...it is holding quite remarkably

will it be sackcloth or satin for me i wonder - lol!

In fact it is recovering -5p now.

but still in the money ..... anyway, the stop i have set means that any pain will be readily bearable, and i think i have prob got it right ..... or is that just wishful thinking lol??

Head of Virgin money is on Working Lunch tomorrow (Wednesday) talking about proposals for NRK

F&C Asset Management reduces Northern Rock stake to 0.25 pct




LONDON (Thomson Financial) - F&C Asset Management PLC said it has sold 4.27
mln shares in Northern Rock PLC, reducing its stake in the embattled UK mortgage
lender to 0.25 pct.
In a statement, F&C said it sold the shares at 219.86 pence per share,
leaving its holding in the bank at 1.045 mln shares.
Last week, F&C sold 3.8 mln shares in Northern Rock at 269.18 pence each.
At 12.40 pm, Northern Rock shares were down 9 pence at 207 pence.

and i am short at 5'10" and 214!

It amazingly closed up at 223p. Wonder why.

Interesting

early drop but regained 230 just, virgin money won't get it for nil shareholder value, expect some late bidders come in

do you now ...... and even if the shareholders get a crumb, it will be bugger all for the dilution will be huge .... that's my view anyway, and my money is on the table to back that view.

i confess to a wry smile that the potential buyers are meant to continue supporting NRK's charitable foundation! ...... effectively that means the shareholders are meant to .... bit like asking turkeys to vote for Christmas!

What shareholders? Branson wants to turn it back into a building society.

i care not .... imo shareholders may walk away with 50p if they are lucky

I have looked just about everywhere for an analysis of the company's fundamentals to get a decent understanding of what its really worth. I cant find anything so have tried to do one myself.

1. On 31st August 2007, just before all the silly jitters and Bank of England incompetence began, NRK closed at 736p.
2. At that time, the general analyst consensus forecast on profits before tax for 2007 was 455m. Market capitalisation at that point was roughly 430m shares * 7.36 = 3.2bn. i.e. a forward P/E multiple of 3200/455 = 7 times. Certainly not a high P/E for a high street bank, even in todays market.
3. On 14th September silly season was confirmed with NRKs announcement which reduced the full year profit after tax outlook to 350m (500m before tax).
4. This announcement also highlighted potential exposures of 600m to various investments however the really risky part of these appears to be closer to 200m. If these unwind, they will not do so all at once.
5. The BOE emergency lending which comes at a punitive rate. I cant find the figure stated formally anywhere probably deliberate to allow BOE discretion however it seems that 1% in excess of what was otherwise expected seems about the normal estimate. I have no idea if this extra cost is included in the revised outlook in the announcement or not, but lets assume its not.
6. The announcement highlighted that lending volumes in the first 3 quarters of the current year were up 42% on prior year. It goes on to say that because of the problems full year will be up only 9% in total on the prior year. That sounds like a significant cut back in lending in Q4 versus last year is already factored in.
7. Taking their forecast of 500m, reduce by 1% to reflect the higher than expected borrowing, reduce by a further 50m for some unwinding of their exposures I get to 445m. After tax, thats 310m.
8. Allow for a reduced P/E ratio of, say, 5, suggests a market capitalisation of 1.5bn. With 421.2m shares in issue that suggests the shares should be trading at around 3.60.
9. Everyone says the brand is shot why is that so? NRs main problem is having lost the confidence of institutional lenders us men in the street with our silly little deposit accounts are not the issue. Given there seems to be no shortage of major institutions Citi, UBS, AIG willing to provide funding to support bail out deals, we can safely assume the confidence of these guys can be easily recovered, indeed already has been. I struggle to understand why anyone would be averse to taking out a mortgage with the Northern Rock brand in the future, assuming it remains competitive I prefer borrowing cash from companies that could go belly up! As such I dont think a P/E ratio of 5 is excessive.
10. I think the board did a terrific job yesterday. Their firm and confident stance in the face of some ridiculous posturing by aggressive half wits who didnt even get the gist of the problem I think is the reason we saw an increase yesterday.

Id welcome your comments on where there are holes above as there surely will be.

before the share price crash, lloyds TSB were sniffing round in secret. And if the BOE had made money available in secret, the shares would still be around 7 or more. be patient and value will return. i remember British steel crashing to 4p a few years ago and the company was done for. Id didn't tak elong before they were 50p and birg profits for patient shareholders.

and what about those whose bought Eurotunnel or Marconi?

A bit in the limbo now, cynic. Are you still holding on?

yes i am ...... see no reason to think other than what i did when i went short