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Thomas Cook Group PLC (TCG)     

goldfinger - 03 Aug 2010 08:03

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=TCG&Si

Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

cynic - 25 Mar 2013 14:36 - 781 of 1559

IF ftse tumbles, as i think it may well do in the footsteps of dow, then it is likely that TCG will suffer disproportionately, solely because it has had such a stonking run in recent times ..... indeed, with fiscal y/e fast approaching, there could easily be some sharp profit-taking anyway

doodlebug4 - 25 Mar 2013 16:59 - 782 of 1559

There have been many posters trying to talk this share down for four or five months now and none of the arguments have worked. First negative argument was the debt, then when that argument was obviously being dealt with we have had the supposed negative argument about a possible rights issue being discussed ad nauseum, then the next negative argument was about all the people cancelling holidays because of the Cyprus crisis. I have to say that is a new one cynic and it sounds like you are clutching at straws, but bring it on - I'm happy to keep this in my portfolio long after the fiscal y/e. Next target 125p, then 137p.

cynic - 25 Mar 2013 17:15 - 783 of 1559

for goodness sake! ..... why are you so precious and fragile - it's pathetic in a grown man!! ......

though i have followed TCG for a couple of years, i currently have no position at all in it, so it does not worry me one way or another whether sp rises or falls .... i have merely pointed out some good sense ..... whether it proves to be right or wrong, only time will tell - as will be your decision whether or not to take note of that opinion

dreamcatcher - 25 Mar 2013 17:21 - 784 of 1559

Sensible post Cynic, I have no position here either. I can only say I was the same in RRL(as you know) and look at the share now and my reduced bank balance. Best not fall in love with a share. Everyone has their own views. Mine I judge a share day by day, cannot see how you can have an exit price with so much going on in the world economy at the moment.

doodlebug4 - 25 Mar 2013 19:49 - 785 of 1559

Little boys own club here I think! A very quiet thread here until the share price started to go North and then suddenly everyone has an opinion. I don't think I'm precious and fragile at all, but if posters start appearing on here who haven't been a particular follower of this share and try to talk it down then I have to question why they are posting on here at all.

cynic - 25 Mar 2013 20:05 - 786 of 1559

try checking back .... you'll find quite a number of posts from me
the thread was quiet for the very simple reason there was no cause for it to be otherwise .... sp was pretty somnolent (dredging the bottom) for many months, so what to comment about?

dreamcatcher - 25 Mar 2013 20:07 - 787 of 1559

Sorry you have read me wrong. It is a thread for opinions is it not ? I have a keen interest in this company not going to the wall as the rest of my this years holidays are booked with them and next years. 'Little boys own club' very unfair words I think.
I have posted on here for a long time if you care to look back( post 6, July 2011) and wished investors well and would love the company to turn around.

doodlebug4 - 25 Mar 2013 20:37 - 788 of 1559

cynic, you seem to be singing from the same song sheet as your buddy halifax and you both seem to be typical of posters who sell out too soon and then try to find a reason to justify why you sold out. I think you sold out originally at about 56p and then bought back in again. I'm not interested in following all your buys/sells, but some of the negative comments which have been posted on this thread recently do have to be questioned. Seems to me that some posters are beginning to run out of logical reasons why this share price should go down!

Chris Carson - 25 Mar 2013 21:03 - 789 of 1559

doodlebug - my advice fwiw is to ignore what anybody says on any thread, plan the trade then trade the plan. Who cares what anybody says! If they can't take a joke feck em! Lighten up mate :O)

cynic - 25 Mar 2013 22:04 - 790 of 1559

dear oh dear; what a tosser!

Chris - you're quite right; when you're buying/selling shares, read what you like but in the end, make up your own mind - and don't blame anyone but yourself if you get it wrong

Chris Carson - 25 Mar 2013 22:06 - 791 of 1559

Works for me mate.

Chris Carson - 25 Mar 2013 22:07 - 792 of 1559

Works for me mate.

Chris Carson - 25 Mar 2013 22:13 - 793 of 1559

Works for me mate.

Chris Carson - 25 Mar 2013 22:19 - 794 of 1559

Parrot mode sorry.

goldfinger - 26 Mar 2013 03:12 - 795 of 1559

Cynic...come on stop the brow beating we all know you do it when you are bored and want a little warped fun.

cynic - 26 Mar 2013 07:25 - 796 of 1559

sticky - my posts merely stated what i feel ..... if DB wants to get girlie about it for no good reason, then so be it

goldfinger - 26 Mar 2013 07:55 - 797 of 1559

Post 790!!!! ....... Is their need for that kind of language.

For gods sake thats the type of thing you find in the funny farm across the road. We dont want to be going down that route.

cynic - 26 Mar 2013 08:09 - 798 of 1559

been there once already sticky, though it was about 15 years ago and for perhaps 6 weeks ..... it was very "cosy" and it's easy to understand how peeps get institutionalised

anyway, back to biz old chap .... let's see what jollies the day brings

goldfinger - 26 Mar 2013 12:24 - 800 of 1559

Turned positive. Dont forget 155p SP target on these.
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