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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

foale - 06 Jun 2007 08:29 - 8021 of 11056

Cable does look a bit glass 1/2 empty atm but staying long unless / until the rising support line on my 8 hour chart from the start of the month is broken...

Like to give these things every chance...lol

foale - 06 Jun 2007 09:27 - 8022 of 11056

stopped out...now flat...

mg - 07 Jun 2007 19:38 - 8023 of 11056

Made some good pips from 1.9940 and 1.9935 shorts taken out earlier in the week. Closed out earlier at 1.9780 :)

That's me done until next week

foale - 07 Jun 2007 20:22 - 8024 of 11056

Well done...miseed it myself....

foale - 08 Jun 2007 09:32 - 8025 of 11056

2 days and nearly 300 pips off....
any quesses on likely support... 1.9625?

chocolat - 08 Jun 2007 11:12 - 8026 of 11056

Probably closer to 1.96

foale - 08 Jun 2007 11:20 - 8027 of 11056

nah its 1.9634....cost just gone long...

MightyMicro - 09 Jun 2007 11:10 - 8028 of 11056

Hil and MM have reported for header Calendar duty so you all have the week's alarums and excursions set out before you. Note that UK times are BST thanks to a bit of Hil's jiggery-pokery.

qwento - 10 Jun 2007 13:56 - 8029 of 11056

Perhaps I am over complicating things Hilary. The multiple screens do however enable me to keep an eye on the market and correlation without having to constantly switch charts. I don't say this is necessarily the right way of going about things. If you can show me a means of making consistent profits with an abacus and a piece of string then I'm quite willing to give it a go.

With hindsight it should be all too easy to bank 500 pips or more per week. And I have no doubt there are those traders out there who do exactly that and find it extremely easy. I know for a fact that one of Jay Lakhani's students banked in excess of 4500 pips a few months ago. Another trader banked over 7500 during a 1 month period. However, a quick glance at any bulletin board will show that this is far from the norm. As with the stock market, the majority either fail or struggle to break even.

Consistency is the key. Although it would be nice to bag several thousand pips in a month I feel there there is no requirement with Forex to push for such extremes. 10 pips is an arbitrary amount, you could aim for 20 or perhaps even 5 pips per day. It doesn't matter with Forex. If you manage to devise a trading plan that you are confident with and that banks you a small number of pips, day in, day out, then with some degree of compounding you will become extremely wealthy. The beauty of Forex is that you will run out of reasons to keep trading long before you hit a barrier to your lot size.

I have been back and waded through a few hundred posts on this thread. There was indeed some useful stuff. What ever happened to the Money AM Forex thread ? I would like to think that you are right Hilary and that it is so easy to bag a few hundred pips per week that the posters of old are all relaxing on their privately owned islands in the sun. Or is that wishful thinking ?

Hilary, you have been a Forex trader for quite a few years. Bagging pips is probably second nature to you and great, it gives hope to us Forex virgins. I think you would have to agree though that reaching that stage is not quite as easy as you would like me to believe. If it is, then I am all ears, in fact, I am all yours !

Anyway, back to my humble goal. 10 pips per day, day in, day out. Some days more, hopefully not that many days less.

It was a case this week of out with the old and in with the new. I know there is no holy grail as such out there but I need to devise a trading plan/formula in which I have confidence. I have come to the conclusion, rightly or wrongly, that most fail as either they do not take the time and effort to devise a trading plan in which they have confidence or having done so do not actually trade the plan. Consistency will only be achieved by discipline.

I am afraid to say that the 'Solar Wind' indicator was a red herring - sorry. I discovered after several days that there is something peculiar with the logic and it's use in Metatrader. Having coded it for ProRealTime the results were very different. In fact I found that a screenshot taken live half way through the day with Metatrader bore no resemblance to what was shown some hours later. Quite what is going on I have no idea but I do not intend to waste time getting to the bottom of it. So it's more like 'Lunar Gas' than 'Solar Wind' !

I am sticking with the 5/8 moving average cross, 5 EMA (close) 8 SMA (open). What I need to find is a filter system for this cross as a quick glance at any chart will show that you can easily get caught in whipsaw hell or a false breakout.

I have devised a chart which combines a mixture of two trading systems. Part of Dollies Safe Pips system, don't laugh, it's far better than the name suggests and the Isakas Ashi system devised by Kuskus Osentogg (I kid you not). This is certainly not main stream !!

What I favour about this mix is that confirmation for the validity of the 5/8 cross will come from various interpretations of the market. A danger many traders fall into with multiple indicators is that they are simply looking at the same thing, for example momentum. This hybrid combines a mix of actual price action with Ashi candlesticks, Bollingers, momentum and oscillator indicators. You can see an example here. What I will be looking for is a 5/8 cross and confirmation from at least 3 if not 4 of the other indicators. If it works out over the next few weeks then I'll upload a template and the various mt4 indicator files.

I came across an interesting post on Forex Factory early last week. It was something that I almost skipped over, it seemed like a throwaway line. Traders were discussing how cable might react to the upcoming rate announcements. This poster simply said, "put a 50 SMA and a 50 EMA on an hourly chart and all will become apparent to you all". Give it a go - interesting huh !




foale - 10 Jun 2007 17:12 - 8030 of 11056

I just trade a trend until it stops me out...

I would not dream of looking for 10 pips on an FX trade..

I dont "scalp" forex. I position trade it... I look at 1 4 and 8 hour bars

I get into a position slowly..and then add a bit and wait for it to stop me out using some support and resistnace lines mainly. sometimes that stop leves me with a profit...other times its a loss..

The real money is made by leaving it to run...not by taking 10 or 20 points here or there.. Of course that applies to other instruments too imo.

foale - 11 Jun 2007 20:06 - 8031 of 11056

saucer bottom 1.9650 with a rally to 1.9800 or are we setting up for another dive..to 1.95 (Hey it rhymns lol)

Seymour Clearly - 12 Jun 2007 07:47 - 8032 of 11056

To save you ploughing a lonely furrow Foale, also long here from early doors today.

mg - 12 Jun 2007 09:37 - 8033 of 11056

Went short from 750 and looking to reverse around 690.

hilary - 12 Jun 2007 12:26 - 8034 of 11056

It's going to be interesting to see over the next two or three weeks whether the Dollar has got enough va va voom to break the upper bounding line of the downtrend at around 83.25 or if it will resume its downward journey.

mg - 12 Jun 2007 13:40 - 8035 of 11056

Doubled up my cable short @ 740

foale - 12 Jun 2007 13:47 - 8036 of 11056

added to long...

eldests Sports Day today ..so thought would be a bit competitive..

Seymour Clearly - 12 Jun 2007 13:58 - 8037 of 11056

Still long here from 737. Interesting times ahead!

hilary - 12 Jun 2007 14:20 - 8038 of 11056

You can only trade what you see and at the moment, imo, the 10-minute and 1-hour cable charts both point to longs. Sterling seems to be out on a limb though, as fiber, Swissie and Jappy are all saying the opposite thing against the Dollar.

edit: I wouldn't be surprised to see meggers win this one.

hilary - 12 Jun 2007 14:29 - 8039 of 11056

Also, I would've thought that Big Al will be hawkish on interest rates when he speaks a bit later on. The markets still pay more attention to what he's got to say than Bernanke.

mg - 12 Jun 2007 15:18 - 8040 of 11056

Hils
Given that it's sports day I must emphasise that it's not the winning but the taking part that drives my trades - yeah, right !!!

Certainly not a done deal either way - only wish I'd shorted the Eur/USD - would have been a better trade.
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