Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

I don't happen to think that a simple ma crossover of the macd is the most reliable of signals, meggers. It's position in relation to the zero line is more important, imo.

Plus, I don't see any great reason to buy the Jappy at a time when the greenback is in an uptrend as there's fcuk all carry.

Fair comment Hils - don't seem to think straight where the Jappy is concerned - am watching 'cos I want those points back and it would give me great pleasure to get them from the in-screw-tables.

Having said all that, there seem to be those out there who have been forcing the moves - highest in 4 1/2 years etc.......

Went short again @ 12345.6 - silly but I'm in that kinda mood. Next short set @ 12332.1 ...... going for the numerologist's approach to technical analysis :)

Like your style ;)

Cable 1.9820-40 ...staging post or destination ?

still holding for min.. 1.9855-60 or even 1.9910
get down $$$$$...

might need some MPC memmber sayinf another 1/4% next month highly likely

Hi all, Was finca sitting for a friend last week and had internet problems! Lovely spot in the hills. Just put a small short on usd/yen, will exit if i think i'm premature(as I was with my usd/chf last week)

Hilary

I was not suggesting that any one particular aspect of an indicator should be regarded as a buy or sell signal, merely mentioning the progress of the MACD and that when taken in context with the other over-bought indicators a drop might be due, which is in fact what happened; although I admit the Yen was starting to fall as I posted!

Goforit

I have a positive genius for opening positions entirely at the wrong time and normally entirely in the wrong direction, however, added to a short Yen position prior to your post. Please don't take any comfort from this fact ;)

pth

I can't, for the life of me, work out why you guys don't just go with the trend instead of continually trying to pick tops and bottoms. USD/JPY turned back up again at 2pm and it's just made a fresh high, so why short it??????????

I probably sound condescending, but I'm only trying to help.

pth - your not the only one! Just saw the divergent spike on the four hourly and there seems to be divergence in most time frames. was watching this pair on friday with interest.

Hilary,

You generally do sound condescending, but I'm equally sure you are trying to help. There is more than one way to skin a cat, your preferred trading style appears to be to identify a trend and stick with it, I prefer to trade it both ways which entails picking tops and bottoms, perhaps one day I will get the hang of it.

pth

pth,

I've just got some simple rules that I stick to religiously.

When I abide by the rules, I make money (not every time - I hate whipsaws); When I try to think (ie pre-empt moves before they happen), I invariably lose money. To counteract the risk of losing money, I no longer bother trying to think and just say and do it it as I see it.

Hilary

I am learning not to pre-empt moves (although some way to go). I use trend lines, whether support or resistance and attempt to judge in conjunction with indicators whether the price will fail or suceed at a particular point. The short opened at 71 this afternoon was taken following a second failure to penetrate rising resistance, in conjucntion with a turning 10 min MACD and of course the much longer time frame picture (1,2 & 4 hr indicators) which continue to display considerable 'over-boughtness', although with room yet for more upside. On this ocassion the trade could have been closed for +7 and although not a huge amount of pips, the profit is clearly dependant on the size of the bet. To be honest, larger bets on smaller moves suit my erratic trading style much better than the longer term moves, although I wish I could develop the patience to adapt!!

pth

More from fxcm on the Jappy - mind you they said cable would be rangebound for this week and to short at 1.9820ish!! Prefer to make my own mind up these days:

The weekly chart shows how significant a breakout this is. The next level of chart resistance is not until the December 2002 high at 125.73. Three long term Fibonacci measurements are centered around 128.00. A confluence such as this tends to act as a magnet.

All this MACD etc is very useful...but my first indicator is "follow the trend"

For some reason I seem to be able to do this more with FX than indexes and all the better for it. Perhaps because I know it can be suicide to trade against the trend in FX as its so liquid and the famous whipsaws... If you trade against the trend expect to get stopped out a lot...it seems bad enough with the trend on your side...

Got stopped out of my cable long..down around 07/08...irritating but have had the long since last week.. Back in a gain though with my long. and looking ok now

Hils...I like your style/ approach in giving us some pointers...thing is, if you keep it too vague its not helpful..if you try to help specifically its called condesending...if thats the case...more of the same please..

This is the UK...so I have learnt there really is no winning... well unless you spell it with an "h" and one "n" ... lol

Hils
You're not condescending - just tell it how it is - according to Hils - which is more than fine by me. We all do what we do and I for one am very grateful for your contributions to this thread.

I am responsible for the way I trade - which is Kamikaze like - sometimes it works out really well, other times disastrously. I'm a bugger for trying to buck the trend and it usually catches me out - that's probably why I can sometimes get away with it on cable - but not on the Jappy - which, as you have said many times, is more trend predictable than most. The way I have been trading goes to show the results.

I really enjoy this thread and, believe me, it's as instructional as any $$$$ system they push elsewhere. That's thanks to the contributors - notably Hils and Chocs but also many others.

Long may we discuss/have heated arguments/state our stupid/great positions - helps with the rich tapestry and all that !!!!

meggers (often mistaken with a "U")

I'll add my six penny worth, although I hasten to add that I had a small down day today, whipsawed on the blooming Euro$. Too eager to place a trade, patience is a virtue !

If you trade the JPY crosses then you have to understand the carry trade.

If you are long, and there are plenty out there who have 1000+ pip winning trades on these crosses, why would you want to close the trade when you are getting in the region of 500% to 600% per annum interest on invested capital.

Some no doubt are simply raking in the interest payments and have their wide stops in place.

Others, usually the big players, are using the profits generated by the carry as leverage in other markets, not least of all the stock market.

The yen crosses will therefore come under pressure when these players have to cover positions or meet margin calls in other markets.

After the gains last night in Far Eastern markets and the reluctance for the European and US markets to decline then it is no wonder that the JPY crosses remain healthy. Not withstanding any fundamental news which may cause the Yen to appreciate then I would watch the global stock markets for likely direction on the JPY crosses.

Hmmmn. I find myself short cable. Not quite sure why yet, tight stop :-O

Still believe we could break up over 65 area to 1.9910 - Cable

Oops.