Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

i would have thought sharm el shaikh qualified as a "hot spot" for terrorist strikes ..... was there not one there in recent memory?

Whose recent memory!

who in their right mind is going to buy a holiday to the middle east atm, Egypt, Syria, Bahrein, Iraq, Iran, Turkey you name it?

Egypt is falling apart its so sad for the people.

Turkey is generally safe enough; Bahrain has little to commend it anyway; the otheres are self-apparent, or do i mean self-condemnatory

People are flocking to Turkey on holiday and what is going on in Egypt is not going to stop them. jmop

There was a terrorist attack in Sharm in 2005 killing 88 people. Since then military barriers have been erected around many of the resorts. Agree with halifax, I would n't book it atm. H

fred - try this too ..... like i said, it's within recent memory but seemingly not yours :-)

02 Nov 2012
The Foreign Office yesterday raised the terror threat level for the country from “general” to the most serious category of “high”, meaning an attack is likely...... Five jihadists were arrested by Egyptian police near the border with Gaza last week fuelling reports they planned to attack the Sharm el-Sheikh resort over Christmas...... They were captured with guns and rocket-propelled grenades .......

In 2006, two Britons were among 23 people killed in a series of bombings in the resort town of Dahab.
A year earlier, bomb attacks in Sharm el-Sheikh left 88 people dead and 150 wounded and in 1997, 62 tourists were killed near Luxor by a group posing as security guards.

The bounce is on today after the recent sharp drop

A few too many lurches down for my liking, but another war in the ME probably isn't going to help any sp except the munitions manufacturers.

Credit Suisse note:
"We see Thomas Cook as a highly compelling turnaround story and the presentation by the CEO, CFO and IR yesterday has galvanised our confidence in that view. Delivery of wave 1 cost savings plans and extension to wave 2, online driven distribution savings and product enhancements should support strong growth and significant further EPS upside. Following the recent pull back in the shares our TP implies 26% potential upside.
■ Key points: 1) delivery of wave 1 cost actions – targeted savings are £400m by FY15 implying consensus EBIT of £415m is baking in just 70% of the outstanding portion; 2) extension of savings to wave 2 focused on structural opportunities in the cost base (more detail likely in Nov); 3) benefits from target of 50% online distribution are not in cost targets – using TT guidance implies £32-48m of potential savings; 4) new product enhancements will be a key discussion point in Nov; 5) we are comfortable with our FY13 EBIT of £251m despite recent trading and geo-political challenges.
Our 175p TP is based on a Sept-15E PE of 11.4x versus 9.1x today. As such we see the re-rating and upgrade potential as compelling and re-iterate our Outperform rating."

Pre-Close Tading Announcement

FULL YEAR 2013 RESULTS EXPECTED TO BE IN LINE WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS

"Summer 2013 trading is as we anticipated when we announced our Q3 2013 Interim Management Statement, with last year's very strong lates market returning to more normal levels as expected.

In terms of winter holidays, we are at an early stage in the booking cycle. While we expect geopolitical events may impact destination choice, we are, following the improved integration of our business lines, offering customers a wider range of new routes and attractive vacations which we believe will provide a sound basis for continued performance into the new financial year. This combined with the continued delivery of our new product range and our cost out and profit improvement plan, give us confidence of achieving our targets and successfully implementing our strategy for profitable growth.

We look forward to reporting further progress at our FY13 results announcement on 28 November 2013."

i guess a a fairly sharp correction should be no surprise after the upward rush this share has enjoyed ..... certainly the rns does not set the heart racing, but it's not bad

Jefferies note today:
"Robust trading in Q3 continued into Q4. Thomas Cook now confirms results will be in-line with consensus for FY13E. We anticipate that the November finals will comment on further cost savings opportunities, this time structural benefits. With superior growth rates likely, it is difficult to justify the valuation discount to TUI Travel. We reiterate our Buy recommendation with 200p PT.
Q4 delivers. TCG has confirmed it expects FY13E results in-line with consensus. Our £248m EBIT forecast compares with a £253m consensus. This is despite: (i) a relatively less favourable 'lates' market this year (less bad European weather); and (ii) absorbing uncertainty around trading caused by unrest in Egypt, Turkey and Syria, as well as volatile oil and currency markets.
Key pre-close features: Summer trading is now 95% sold, with bookings outperforming capacity management by 4% (average selling prices up in each segment). UK capacity is now 97% sold, with bookings down 3%, capacity down 2.5% and average sales prices up 4%. Continental Europe bookings are flat (capacity down 10%, average prices +1%, with 15% capacity left to sell).The company is confident of meeting the cost out saving target by year end (£170m; and £400m by FY15).
Winter and summer 14. Although early days, winter trading has started more slowly but with active capacity management selling prices are 'up strongly in all markets'. No comment on summer 2014 capacity. We see continued industry capacity discipline as an important driver of a re-rating for the sector.
Cost savings: more to come. TCG recently identified a further £10m of cost savings which it expects to achieve in FY15, making a total of £400m. We expect more as the company focuses on the Wave II cost savings programme, aimed at more structural opportunities such as online distribution. The finals on 28 November should provide more guidance. Thomas Cook is delivering, and we expect it to continue to do so. Gross margins are improving, net debt has fallen and the balance sheet considerably strengthened, more cost savings are promised and, importantly, trading is robust. Yet the shares still trade at a discount to its major competitor, TUI Travel (TT/ LN, Hold, PT 380p). We think this is becoming increasingly difficult to justify, especially given the likely higher growth rates at Thomas Cook Group.
Valuation/Risks
Thomas Cook trades on 6.1x lease adjusted EV/EBITDAR (FY15E), compared to TUI Travel on 6.7x. Given TCG's superior self-help opportunities and growth prospects, we think this discount is difficult to justify. Our 200p PT is based on TCG trading at the same multiple as TT. Our 200p PT would put TCG on 12x FY15E PE, but we see upside risk to our estimates.
Risks: failure to deliver on cost-saving plans, volatile FX and oil price, event risk, and excess capacity."

Negative Head and Shoulders on the chart.

26 Sep 2013 Thomas Cook Group... TCG Prime Markets Buy 146.30 155.60 150.00 150.00 Reiterates

Launch of New Brand

THE THOMAS COOK GROUP ANNOUNCES ITS BRAND UNIFICATION

For the first time in its 172 year history the Thomas Cook Group today announces the unification of its brands and market activity under one common symbol, the "Sunny Heart". Simplifying the brand proposition is a key element in the group's profitable growth strategy, building on Thomas Cook's already strong brand heritage and projecting its transformation into a single united business.

Harriet Green, Group Chief Executive of Thomas Cook, said: "At our Capital Markets presentation in March we committed to reduce our multiple UK brands from 30, to less than 10 consumer facing and B2B brands, eliminating confusion and making it easier for customers to interact with us. This major milestone in the transformation of our company, as we continue to develop our product offering and focus on our omni-channel approach, is much more than the rollout of a new logo. It symbolises how we are leveraging the combined power of the group to maximise our presence in the mind of customers, whilst helping to reduce cost."

The "Sunny Heart" will replace the current "Globe" symbol on Thomas Cook's websites, and in its international stores, airline fleet and throughout its UK headquarters and overseas offices. The group's many leading brands, such as Neckermann in Europe, Ving in Sweden, Condor in Germany and Elegant Resorts in the UK, will all connect with the "Sunny Heart" in different ways. For more information on the new brand approach visit: www.thomascookgroup.com/strategy

Michael Healy, Group Chief Financial Officer, said: "Having already piloted this approach in our North European businesses since November 2012, we have proven that it has heightened brand awareness, driven more website traffic, increased early and repeat bookings and improved conversion rates. This unification has been developed internally and we are rolling it out appropriately for this stage in our transformation journey."

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook Group has sold 100% of the Thomas Cook Egypt and Thomas Cook Lebanon businesses to Yusuf Bin Ahmed Kanoo (Holdings) Co WLL of Bahrain for a cash consideration of £6.5 million.

Thomas Cook Egypt and Thomas Cook Lebanon offered outbound corporate and leisure travel to Egyptian and Lebanese customers, as well as foreign exchange services in Egypt and Lebanon. Thomas Cook would continue to offer its customers from other markets travel services to Egypt.

they didn't get much for it did they ....... Kanoo is a family owned Saudi concern with lots of interests across a wide field of industries

Hi Cynic Ive come to the decision that these are fully valued more or less and better opps reamin elsewhere.

Of course their will be up and down days but cannot see these rising substantially over the medium term.

The market discrepancy on SP has been filled imo.

i'm positively undecided :-)

so far, i've banked some good profits on this one, but you may be right that it will do little more than tread water for a while.
however, with the economy both here and across the world now recovering, the travel industry is one that should benefit quite significantly.

advertising (WPP) is another one to watch as already posted on that thread