Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

Your right Stan .... a first :-)

in that case, fred must be ARP Warden Hodges

cynic [Send an email to cynic] [View cynic's profile] - 09 Feb 2019 09:29 - 12408 of 12442
when the (protestant) huguenots were hounded out of france at the end of 17th century, they brought silk spinning and weaving skills to spitalfields (london) ...

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The Huguenots, the Irish, and master weavers, fun times in Spitalfields.

Cheers,
KidA

what is the connection between the irish and spitalfields?

Household incomes have taken a £1,500 hit since the EU referendum.

The UK has experienced the sharpest slowdown in income growth of any comparable economy according to the Resolution Foundation study.

Higher than expected inflation has also contributed to households’ spending power falling far below forecasts from before the 2016 European Union referendum.

The combination meant households had £1,500 less disposable income on average than they would have had under the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) pre-referendum forecast.

The report came out as official GDP figures are expected to show the UK economy at the end of 2018 was 1.1% - some £23 billion - smaller than the OBR pre-referendum forecast in March 2016, the think tank said.

That figure is equivalent to £800 for every household in the UK.

cynic [Send an email to cynic] [View cynic's profile] - 11 Feb 2019 14:50 - 12444 of 12446
what is the connection between the irish and spitalfields?

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Spitalfield riots in the 1760s. New group of weavers begins to settle, employers happy to pay less, friction, riots. Sound familiar? Obviously, the employers would say the increased numbers did not affect pay.

Cheers,
KidA

thanks KidA ........ as below

Spitalfields had been a centre of the silk-weaving industry since the early seventeenth century. Towards the end of the century, at the time when the Huguenots arrived from France, large numbers of Huguenot silk-weavers settled in the district. During the 1760s, there were still many weavers in Spitalfields whose French surnames showed their Huguenot descent. Irish weavers came slightly later, but by the middle of the 1730s there were many people from Ireland, or of Irish origins, working in the Spitalfields silk industry.

Relations between the groups were not always good. There were times when the Irish weavers were blamed for working for too little money and bringing down the rates of pay.

Hils .... prove it.


Imo it goes to show they are just as shite at forecasting as Carney or come to that Gypsy Rose Lea and her tea leaves (Barry Island Funfair circa 1975).

There's nothing to prove, Dilbert!

The clue is in the headline.... 'since the EU referendum'. The report isn't a forecast of what might happen in the future. It's an analysis of what's actually happened since the referendum.

Did you vote to be poorer? Cos the other 48% certainly didn't.

Hils , they are comparing it to pre referendum forecast.

Bit like saying compared to Carney and Osbourne's pre referendum forecasts house prices are 50% higher , people employed is x% higher , unemployment is x% lower , wages are x% higher etc etc.

Just means their pre referendum forecasts were as crap as usual.

Dilbert,

The OBR pre-referendum forecast of March 2016 assumed that the UK would vote to remain. It actually forecast very modest growth of around 2% for 2016, 2017 and 2018 compared to the actual growth already witnessed in 2014 (3.1%) and 2015 (2.3%). I do understand what you're saying, but there is nothing to suggest that the OBR 2016 forecast was overly optimistic, although the truth is that we'll never know.

What is interesting, however, is that growth forecasts were also made for the EZ for 2016, 2017 and 2018, and history has shown that the EZ beat those forecasts in each of the three years.

If anything therefore, there's an argument to be made that the OBR 2016 forecasts were overly pessimistic. You might be even worse off than the Resulotion study suggests!

In addition, Dilbert, the Resolution study pinpointed higher than expected inflation as a primary cause. Every Brexiter bangs on about how exporters will benefit from weaker sterling after Brexit whilst conveniently neglecting to mention the fact that the UK has run a massive trade deficit in goods every month since I was a little girl.

Immediately before the referendum, sterling was stable against the euro at around 1.35. In the days after the referendum if fell around 10%, and now sits between 1.10 and 1.15. Sorry, but seeing as you depend upon the EU for so much produce, it's a no-brainer that Brexit-related inflation is going to hit the Great British public hard in their pockets.

Yep!

Is it not great for exports having the GBP at around 1.10/1.15 - keeping the factorties busy, plenty of jobs, increasing pay packets - less holidays in the EU, buying products from Non-EU areas on better terms, dropping house prices as the UK limits the influx of residents. Longer hotter summers due to climate change, it cannot get much better can it. :-)

and uk has now got used to that, for the referendum was 2 years ago

it could justifiably be argued that € is over-valued, and certainly the tourist industries in spain and portugal (and other countries) have been hit hard, for the brits are/were their major clients

Hils , those forecasts prove nothing except maybe they were overly optimistic and overly pessimistic for the UK. End of the day they were forecasts and wrong in both cases which just goes to show the value of forecasts.

EUR at 1.35 was ridiculous , was as high as 1.40 at one point I think and without even looking at the charts I can tell you that 1.13 is much nearer the average rate since the EUR was introduced. 1.35 was never going to be sustained in the long run.

Dilbert,

You'd be surprised. As part of strategy backtesting, we access and load 1-minute history data going back to 1st January 1970. In the case of EUR/GBP (note the EUR is the first cross currency), that data is obtained by weighting the respective euro component currency (eg. DM, FFr, etc) rates pre-1999 when the euro was formed.

The chart data suggests a 49 year EUR/GBP high of around 0.98 (the inverse low is 1.02) and a low of around 0.57 (inverse high is 1.75). The long term average is about 0.75 (inverse 1.33), so no, GBP/EUR at 1.35 pre-referendum is just a reflection of the long term average and not ridiculous at all.

very interesting hilary, but what is the average dating back to just say 2010 to 2017 and then 2017 to date and 2010 to date

You can easily check those averages yourself, Cyners. But they're far too short term to have any meaning - inadequate data sampling (curve fitting) is why 99% of systems fail.