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From The Sunday Times -- November 8, 2009
Gordon Brown triggers row with call for bank supertax
GORDON BROWN yesterday threw his weight behind a Tobin tax on financial transactions as a way of taxing and reining in the banks, despite warnings that such taxes are unworkable.
We should discuss whether we need a better economic and social contract to reflect the global responsibilities of financial institutions to society, he said at the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in St Andrews, Fife.
The prime ministers plan appeared to fall at the first hurdle when Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, said: A day-by-day financial transaction tax is not something we are prepared to support.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been asked to examine the practicalities of such a tax and report back in April. But Dominique Strauss-Kahn, its managing director, warned that it could prove too easy to avoid for banks.
A tax of 1% or less levied on financial transactions would both raise considerable revenue and limit so-called speculative activity on extremely low-margin trades.
Brown also outlined other ideas that will be considered by the IMF. There have been proposals for an insurance fee to reflect systemic risk or a resolution fund or contingent capital arrangements or a global transaction levy, he said. I do not in any way underestimate the enormous practical and technical issues ... but I do not think that these should prevent us from considering with urgency the legitimate issues.
A Tobin tax named after James Tobin, the economist was floated by Lord Turner, head of the Financial Services Authority, in the summer. Alistair Darling, the chancellor, insisted Geithners opposition did not rule it out. The US, like we do, recognises that there are various issues you have to deal with and that a lot of work is required, he said.
Angela Knight, chief executive of the British Bankers Association, said that Tobin taxes dont work as they require perfect or near-perfect global implementation. Vince Cable, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, said experience suggested it would be hard to implement.
The G20 delegates agreed to work on a global growth strategy, with countries submitting individual plans in January for assessment by the IMF and Organisation for Econo-mic Co-operation and Development.
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP is being kept afloat with 165 billion of loans and guarantees from the Bank of England and other central banks around the world, The Sunday Times can reveal.
The banks reliance on state funding, detailed in a document released last week in connection with a separate 21 billion fundraising, gives the first insight into the huge scale of aid extended to banks during the financial crisis.
The document says the bank is still heavily reliant on government funding. Lloyds also says it would face a materially higher refinancing risk if it was not available.
The scale of Lloyds dependency has surprised analysts, but they say it shows just how big a financial timebomb it has become. The support is nearly equal to the 175 billion of UK government borrowing to be raised this year, and almost as big as the Bank of Englands 200 billion quantitative easing programme.
The government has extended the money through two funding plans the Special Liquidity Scheme, which gives loans, and the Credit Guarantee Scheme, under which guarantees are given to allow banks to get commercial loans.
Royal Bank of Scotland is less exposed it has about 40 billion in state funds. It has cut its dependency on state funding by 69% since the peak of the crisis.
Lloyds inherited most of the government loans from HBOS after it agreed to acquire the bank in September 2008.
Banking sources have revealed that the Bank of Englands Special Liquidity Scheme was created in April 2008 with the express purpose of helping HBOS. The group was heavily exposed to mortgage lending, which dwarfed its retail deposits. When markets deteriorated and HBOS could not recycle its capital, the Bank stepped in.
The document shows Lloyds drew down further loans early this year. The bank said the loans should be seen in the context of its 1 trillion balance sheet and said all western banks received state help during the crisis. However, analysts say few continue to be helped on this scale.
The Bank of England will make record profits this year from fees and interest rates paid by the banks for emergency funding.
The Lloyds document also reveals the bank faces a 3.7 billion pension deficit. It is transferring 5 billion of assets to fill the hole.
This weekend the bank faces another potential threat to its fundraising plans. TCI, an activist hedge fund, has begun to orchestrate a potential investor rebellion over a 7.5 billion debt swap deal, part of the banks plans. Some investors continue to put pressure on Lloyds chief executive Eric Daniels to announce a succession plan as a condition for backing the rights issue.
RBS, meanwhile, faces another potential row over staff bonuses. The bank is offering cash advances to its bankers to by-pass new rules. Cut-price loans are being offered to staff allowing them to instantly release the value of bonuses being paid in shares. The loans would enable them to borrow against up to 25% of the total value of the bonus, at interest rates of 3.75%. The bank claimed the rate represented commercial terms, even though it is lower than the mortgage rates offered by RBS to customers.
The bank is also continuing its process of disposals, with first-round bids having been tendered for RBS Asset Management, which controls 30 billion of assets. Aberdeen Asset Management, Black Rock, Henderson, Schroders and Neuberger Berman have all tabled offers.
Morgan Stanley is advising RBS on the sale, which is estimated to be worth between 250 and 300m.
The chief executives of our large banks and retailers have ideal seats from which to watch the UK economy. The bankers see how stretched individuals are on mortgage payments, how much they are putting on credit cards and into savings accounts. They have a similar view on the financial strength of their corporate customers, both big and small. Retailers can see every day what their customers are doing.
So when three chief executives from these sectors call an end to the recession even though it has not officially ended we should listen.
Sir Stuart Rose at Marks & Spencer said as much last week and even Stephen Hester, head of Royal Bank of Scotland and the most bearish of all high-street bankers, shares a similar view. The world today is a more predictable place, he said. Every country is pulling out of recession. The UK has already, but it is not yet in the data. Eric Daniels of Lloyds said he was more optimistic than some on the short-term prospects for the UK.
But these upbeat remarks need to be qualified. If all agree the recovery is taking place or is just round the corner the bigger concern is that further growth will be muted. The trio are united in believing that Britain faces a long road to recovery. Daniels said you cannot have an economy with twin deficits fiscal (shortage of tax receipts) and trade (balance of payments) and that there are huge questions about how our economy should evolve. Or, as Daniels put it: What is the point of excellence in the UK?
Hester remains cautious about how good the recovery will be. It is a sentiment shared by many of our top industrialists, particularly those whose earnings are dependent on Britain.
You only have to look at last weeks results from RBS and Lloyds to see the troubles that are still stored up.
RBS admitted it has another 40 billion of provisions it could make in the UK in the next two to three years. That comes from exposure to assests and loans to businesses, property and mortgage lending that are no longer worth their original value. That number on top of the huge provisions made this year by RBS may not be as bad as once feared, but it is still huge.
In addition to this, the two banks are going to run down or sell non-core assets and loans over the next four to five years of some 400 billion.
Lloyds intends to sell assets worth 200 billion accounting for 20% of its total balance sheet assets. And RBS intends to wind down 240 billion of assets that have been put in the Government Asset Protection Scheme.
The recovery may be under way, but the scars inflicted by the debt-fuelled boom will take a long time to heal and the ripple effect round the wider economy will be felt for some years to come. We have to return to a business relationship in which banks serve industry, not exploit it as an opportunity for more financial engineering.
The encouraging news is that we are nearly out of the worst but, as we point out on the opposite page, the government and the Bank of England have made a huge, long bet on the UK economy. If there is a double dip, that gamble will make this countrys finances very precarious indeed.
Sparks fly at Barclays
So farewell then Frits Seegers, the Dutchman who shook up Barclays international retail operation. Seegers packed his bags last week after being stripped of his other role running the commercial lending division. This was moved to Bob Diamond, the banks all-powerful head of Barclays Capital.
Those on the inside had seen it coming. Seegers was a human catherine wheel, throwing off random sparks every second. Some found it hard to work for him and a number of big investors had concerns over the rapid expansion of the retail business into Africa, India and Pakistan, among other areas.
It wasnt the flag-planting they didnt like it was the returns that would ultimately be delivered. The show was moving too quickly for anyone to have time to assess the profitability.
The speed with which John Varley, Barclays chief executive, moved yet again underlines how ruthless he can be when it comes to protecting the banks commercial interests.
Just two months ago, most of the top brass at Barclays cited Seegers as one of its stars. Last week the story changed. The new line is that Seegers departure enables the bank to promote the next generation of talent. It is a tough business, but a 4m pay-off undoubtedly softened the blow. And the decision to integrate commercial lending into investment banking is the right one.
ITVs City X Factor
Critics who struggle to put their finger on the failings of the ITV board often point to the number of bankers who have sat in the broadcasters boardroom over the years.
In the Charles Allen era there used to be three banking knights: Sir Peter Burt, Sir Brian Pitman and Sir James Crosby. None of them is the type to sit down to watch two hours of the X Factor on a Saturday night.
Only Crosby remains today, and he will leave almost as soon as he has identified ITVs next chairman. It is striking that several of the candidates who will be interviewed over the next two weeks are bankers too.
That neednt be a bad thing. One name in the frame, Merrill Lynch veteran Bob Wigley, has proved to be a safe pair of hands in marshalling lenders to support a 3.8 billion debt restructuring at Yell, the classified directories group, where he is chairman. The company is also preparing to announce a 500m rights issue with its interim results on Tuesday.
John Nelson, who made his name at Credit Suisse and now chairs the Hammerson property group, also has strong credentials. Anthony Fry, once of Lehman Brothers, is a longer shot.
Investment bankers names are still mud as they prepare to pick up hefty bonuses after Christmas. How interesting, then, that so many are in the long-suffering headhunters sights to fill the ITV job. Perhaps it is meant to be a form of punishment for the profession but with advertising and confidence coming back to television, probably not.
A young mans Game?
A number of big investors in Game, the video retailer, are getting concerned whether Peter Lewis, the chairman, is the right man to take the group forward to the next stage of its growth.
Lewis, 68, has been with the company for 14 years, and in that time has seen the group grow to its present market value of 538m. Some investors are keen for a younger chairman to take his place, more in tune with the groups target audience and one who can put a spark back into the share price.
SFO misses target A FEW weeks ago we wrote that the Serious Fraud Office had set an end-of-October deadline to pass papers to the attorney-general on its long-running fraud investigation into BAE Systems. Has it met the target? Apparently not. The papers are now with Timothy Langdale QC who has been working on the case for years to decide whether to send them off. BAE will have to wait a bit longer for its day of reckoning.