The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

A very odd day indeed, it seems the MM's are really trying to scare sellers with such movement!

Dear all,
This was posted on fyb and was a response to an e-mail the author sent asking this journalist his thoughts on PET after hee read some article by him. Ipersonally don`t read anything into it, other than the usual press crap.
Let`s face it who would take any notice of Shell at the moment ?,how many billions are they out on their estimates ?!!


ANDREW CRITCHLOW, BLOOMBERG/ NEWSROOM: Re: Iraq spending $1 billion to boost oil output article Mon 29/11/2004 05:10 Dear Nick, I know Petrel Resources quite well. I met David Horagan, their managi ng director who is a frequent visitor to Baghdad some months ago when I was ther e. They are bullish about there chances of winning a concession for the Khurmala dome but most people in the industry say its too big a development for such a s mall company to take and while Petrel have been quick to make statements I would consider it extremely unlikely that any contract would be signed. These fields combined could produce another 1 million b/d. People I talk to at Shell and Che vron who are in talks with the ministry say these tenders were issued to keep co mpanies interested until after the elections when the real decisions will be mad e. Petrel seem to be using their links with the ministry to make statements to boost their share price.."

Dexter01 - That e-mail was sent to David Horgan by Darshan, here is his reply


----- Forwarded message from David Horgan
-----
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2004 12:09:26 -0000
From: David Horgan
Reply-To: David Horgan
Subject: FW: urgent shareholder
To: ********


Since we have had a news blackout - at the Ministry's request - since
October how can we be accused of making "statements to boost the share
price"?
You can't have it both ways!
DH

dexter
doesnt quite stack up as PET arent issuing any news to bolster their share price, in fact they are painfully quiet.If as implied they were making up stories to move the share price I feel sure they would be a lot more vocal than the current silence.IMO

As anyone asked PET how long the news blackout will last?

tokyo,
i meant to post that bit as well!,basically i was just saying that we should`nt take ANY notice of any press,it`s just that some PET holders are getting a bit twitchy.

willfagg,
remember that song, "silence is golden"?.

i`ve sent PET an e-mail asking why they have`nt issued an rns on the progress, as in the past they have kept us informed. i don`t hold out much hope of a reply though !!.
dexter.

ps. i sent the e-mail before i read the reply from DH above.

Dexter - I also sent DH a cleverly worded e-mail yesterday, although perhaps not clever enough as I've not had a reply today, and really do not hold out much hope of one. PET keep pressing the point that they have been sworn to secrecy by the MOO, and well we are not going to get anything out of them, and as frustrating as it is, the only thing we can do is just wait, the SP takes a short term hit, well it is nothing we haven't seen before, one thing is for sure I feel like I've been on a roller coaster ride with this company, I've built up a fair sized holding (perhaps weighted my portfolio a little too heavily with PET), done a sh*t load of research into this company and there is no way I going to chicken out of it now, I said back in April it was sh*t or bust, guess it is time to live up to my word, I shall either be pretty rich or lose a chuck of my portfolio soon, I'm still willing to take the gamble, the question is, how many investors are willing to do the same?

Tokyo

Tokyo,
it really does`nt matter if the sp swings 10% or so because until we get the elusive rns it is going to stay around the 1 mark, at least without the day traders it stays more stable!.
what made you buy into PET all those long months ago ?, with me it was when they topped the leader board on feb 19th, it prompted some quick research and bought my first ot on feb 20th.
dexter

It was actually a friend (who normally gives me pretty good tips) bringing it to my attention @ about 27pence, I rushed off and did some research and it looked like a gamble that could pay off, I was at first a little worried about the size of the company, but my friends tips had always been pretty good, my research took a couple of days, then I saw Chartist's thread and decided to take another look and I didn't get in until 31 pence, but that 4 pence hardly seems to matter now.

Tokyo! im in til the end! Gone too far and too long to let a few days(i hope) make me sell. Could nt live with myself if i woke up to see a substantially higher opening price on the back of an after hours RNS!

tokyo,
do you get the daily e-mail tips from uk analyst, it`s free and in the past they`ve had some good tips........and some not so good!!,but every little helps , even if to point you in a certain direction,
dexter

Tokyo,
I'm staying in too.
Couldn't bear to lose out now, just because of nerves.
We just have to sit tight and wait.....
Sabine

Tokyo and dexter.

You two are still doing a great job despite the fact that you were in relatively early. I really listen to the golden silence! There is only one reason for silence from PET and that is that they are doing the bidding of the IOM. It doesn't mean its cut and dried because the IOM could be having problems of their own: justifying their selection? coping with today's problems? not happy with some aspect(s) of the bid? last minute temptations from an oil major? As I see it, we are still on an 80% probability of a super outcome but we all know things can go belly up in that sort of situation. It has to be seen as risk part of your portfolio. It must not be curtains for me and my future as an investor if its curtains for the contract. If anyone is over-exposed, then I would suggest cutting the holding to an amount you can cope with. That is just common sense.

Eric

good post eric,
thanks for your kind words,
at least being in early, it gives you a bit of a cushion if it did all go belly up..... not tha it will !!!.
dexter

i am in a position where i am able to have my pc on all day at work with money am and my on-line brokerage side to side. Should anything dramatic happen i am able to react. i have sat and watched so many 'tree shakes' that i percieve today to be following suit. This is nervousness based on the fact tomorrow is the last day in November! i am not willing to lose on this stock nor am i going to get out before it all takes off! A fine line indeed!

Perhaps the article implied that PET were making such statements *before* October, hence the price-rise back then. Not trying to de-ramp but...?

Eric - I agree the silence is golden, Why be sworn to secrecy if there is no secret to be kept. We seen that they had to resubmit their tender after the talks in Jordan, so really we are waiting for the outcome, none of us know what they talked about, was it risk/sharing or was it the joining of companies to work on these projects? All we do know is that PET are very confident and are doing what the MOO has ordered them to, and keep quiet. Everything we have is pointing to a positive result, lets just hope it is so!!!

Tokyo

does anyone look at www.platts.com , it`s free to register and seems that it could be quite interesting. i`ve only just signed up so have`nt had chance to read too muc as yet.
typical tree shake, everyone hold on!, the MM`s want your stock.
dexter

gonna check that out now dexter

this is taken from platts, reading the figures it would be madness for the IOM to delay these or any other contracts. seeing as the contracts PET have gone for are some of the first, the sooner the oil flows, the sooner the majors will want a piece of the action, either with PET or in other areas of iraq.


The value of Iraq's own revenues

On the plus side, there is one prospective gain: high oil prices could bring increased oil revenues. This is a complex matter since the degree to which high oil prices are predicated on Iraqi instability is itself a major factor in determining the impact on Iraqi oil revenues. If the country is stable, it will contribute to a substantial lowering of oil prices, with an adverse impact on revenues; if it is unstable, prices may be high but it may not be able to get its oil to market. With uncertainty governing both the price that Iraqi oil might command and the amount of oil that it might be able to export, it makes sense to look at Iraqi oil exports revenue prospects in very broad terms.

In general, at oil prices of $35/bbl, Iraq stands to secure $1.067.5-bil in foreign exchange earnings every month for every 1-mil bbl of oil exported. At $30/bbl, it earns $915-mil/month; at $25/bbl, earnings slip to $762.5-bil/month; and at $20 it earns $610-mil.

Under current circumstances, with oil prices well above $35/bbl, with production capacity at around 2.4-mil b/d (actual oil production totaled 2.38-mil b/d in April) and with Iraq itself consuming some 600,000 b/d, Iraq might reasonably expect to secure around $1.92-bil in foreign exchange earnings in May. (Such figures only yield foreign exchange earnings, they do not take into account the costs of producing the oil or getting it to market).

Given that it may now no longer be possible to make even reasonable predictions concerning future Iraqi export levels, prospective annual Iraqi oil export earnings can best be indicated as follows.

Table: Indicative Iraqi Oil Export Earnings

For production levels of 2.5-mil b/d and export levels of 1.9-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $13.9-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $17.3-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $20.8-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $24.3-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $27.7-bil.

For production levels of 3.0-mil b/d and export levels of 2.35-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $17.2-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $21.4-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $25.7-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $30.0-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $34.3-bil.

For production levels of 3.5-mil b/d and export levels of 2.8-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $20.4-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $25.6-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $30.7-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $35.8-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $40.9-bil.

For production levels of 4.0-mil b/d and export levels of 3.2-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $23.4-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $29.2-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $35.0-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $40.9-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $46.7-bil.