The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Tokyo - been following this thread with interest, contstanly reading the announcement will be this day, next week , the end of nov, now people are saying december some time. Yes it is frustration but everyone may as well say the results could be between now and anytime in the future.

I posted this on the BB at another place and to a lesser degree, it does apply here as well.


"Look guys, like you and many others, I would love to hear whether PET has won one or more contracts or indeed any at all.

But the more we pepper them with e-mails the more they are going to get pissed off with us all - if not already.

We all know that there are many unpredictables in dealing with Iraq at the moment and there are bound to be delays and last minute hitches.

Lets stop behaving like screaming brats in a supermarket demanding to be given sweeties before we get home. Just be more patient and mature.

Let me ask you all a question. Would you like to be David Horgan and receiving so many e-mails from a multitude of share holders all asking roughly the same question(s)?

Yea, I guess not!

'Nuff said"

Oilywag

I agree but wish people would stop predicting when the results be known, cus nobody knows. The unknown is the turmoil going on in Iraq and as a result the answer could be months or even years away.

I saw this on another board this morning, thought it was pretty good:

"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."

it would appear that frustration is setting in! lets not lose sight of the objective and build up to this share. Please refer to the many informed and insightful posts on this Thread.

Those that wish to hold do so and those that are now fed up and feel that this is taking a lifetime sell and move on.

I for one, am holding, Tokyo is quit correct in that intraday movements are irrelevant. The end result is an RNS confirming contracts signed with MOO. And i would add, an Sp that will dwarf the current!

It would not take much to dwarf this share price LOL.

It is the MOO and Petrel who made the predictions, End of Nov
and
Although I agree sending e-mails is non productive, no news etc.
Petrel resources are a public limited company they answer to their share holders. If they get rattled by worried stock holders, they can complain to the MOO or the FSA.

Of course people are peeved at the lack of news and no wonder, lets give them encouragement for the future not advise them to leave, the BB or Pet.
Just remember we are dealing with a 'once in a lifetime share' and most traders wait a 'lifetime' and die waiting. We are here now, be certain the future is bright and will be worth the wait.

I am a little peeved at the price today, again, we see 100k more buys than sells and still 2/3points down. and I don't want anyone to defend MMs on their ethical duties. All I see is they are taking MY profit, and creating a bigger void needed to fill before I make my millions, so 'their' manipulation cannot be justified, and even if it can--I DON'T CARE!!! they promised I could have my sweeties before I got home--------or before the end of Nov.
AF

A big plus about bb's is that we investors can get together and enthuse together and predict together. A big minus about bb's is that we investors can get together etc, etc, etc. The whole thing becomes quite emotional and, rather than taking time out to think, you (i.e. me) over-react with impatience and frustration and rush to the on-line trade. So, I am out of the situation that I have really researched well and into somewhere else on gut instinct. So let's concentrate on the essentials. Three posts today to reflect on:

1. dexter points out that the AWARD is in November and the CONTRACT in December. So, who said there should be an RNS on the award? One thing you learn in selling significant contracts is that you do not crow until the signature is on the bit of paper!

2. Tokyo makes the point that we are talking about an SP of 3. Why 3? Why not? The point is that we are talking about a very significant upside. Yes, we are talking about a significant downside as well. Three times up or three times down? If it is evens probability then the odds are neutral. So, you weight the probability. Whilst it is better than evens you hold. I said yesterday that my figure was 3:1 on. So, you don't agree! Then, what is your figure? My figure is based on the fact that PET are sworn to secrecy. You don't need a figure, but if you say 'odds on' then you hold! So, you say, what if we hear nothing in December? I expect we will hear something: yes, no or still on-going. Then you can assess the probability again and go on from there. The key thing is to be as rational as possible because we are talking about money, not love (mind, I love the ide of that oil gushing out of those PET wells!).

3. dbfm quote is brilliant and couldn't be more relevant. Jeremy Lacey made this point on this column about shares under the mattress. An old friend showed me a family trust portfolio the other day with his mother's investments in the early 50s: a few hundred pounds here and a few hundred there, oils and banks: increased a 100-fold and more. So what's a few days or even weeks or, God forbid, months, so long as it comes home! Shame if I've moved on and watch the action from afar!

Eric

Hi, thought this might be of interest/use, if you go to iii.co.uk and their discussion board for PET, under Trades it gives all trades done during the last few hours (you choose the time frame), showing both Sells and Buys and the price paid. There are also other very interesting data links. Makes good reading. I say, keep the faith and hang in there.

morning eric,
very good post, am i right in thinking that you don`t hold PET anymore, or is it me reading it too early in the morning with a thick head!!!!
dexter

dexter

No, I'm still in. I won't comment on the state of your early-morning head; mine's never very good at the best of times! I was giving three good reasons for staying in, when my gut reaction when the November expectation ws missed was to get out. Your own differentiation between AWARD and, say, announce, was probably the crucial factor. That and the argument from silence. I suggest we just wpend time listening to 'the sound of silence' from Dublin and Baghdad!

Eric

in the morning :o) in the afternoon :o( if this goes on I will need surgery. I have an apprentice who can't wait for this to advance, until then he keeps yapping at my heals. No sticks left to throw him

watcher

Eric - excellent post yet again, if you are not carefully, you shall be labelled as the sensible one on this thread, I've heard a rumour that a few big players are to be moving into PET over today and tomorrow, so I'll be checking over all the buys later tonight and tomorrow to see if this is true. Anyone with an interest or any cash left NBR is my next exciting little play, started a thread a few days ago, but all on my own over there, it is yet another high growth company that I'm expecting an announcement from later this month. I promise after this to look for a steadier investment (or prehaps not!)

Tokyo

Found this over on iii, it`s from a regular poster and i have no reason to doubt the authenticity of it.

Q. The question I would like to raise is obviously on timescales, do you still perceive a conclusion to the Khurmala & Hamrin contract tenders in the next few days or is this something that is likely to extend further perhaps into 2005 or beyond the first elections in the region?

After an initial no comment response, I got the following reply from the cooleywhiskey address.

In October the Ministry of Oil asked us to maintain strict secrecy given the extreme sensitivities associated with conditions in Iraq. I gave my word.

The end November target date was provided by the head of SCOP both to us personally and later in a press interview. But dates can drift in the Middle East, particularly in conflict sitations.
David

dexter

Quite a revealing post! It implies that the AWARD was not made in November so we are not yet into contract negotiations. Note also the phrases: "asked us ... - I gave my word"; "dates can drift"; "to us personally". There seems to be a quiet confidence there. I can see the handshake (and not like Straw with Mugabi!). I can see that a few days are neither here nor there. So back to my "sound of silence", with an inner contentment and sweet dreams counting lol!

Eric

The share price seems to be slowly drifting downwards without a lot of opposition. The end of November has come and passed , so does the marker view that the longer it goes the less likelyhood of there being any substance to the rumours of PET winning a contract? Certainly a buy level of 80 something pence a couple of weeks ago would have met with serious buying support.

willfagg

We meet again! But don't drop out this time as WE did with YOO! I think its inevitable that confidence should drop with time. But there is a counter argument - that the longer without a NO means its LESS likely to come! All sorts of reasons for delay if the answer is YES. But, if its NO, just say so! But your question is about the market in general and not about rational people such as you and me (well, sometimes!). The market doesn't like delay; without news the market drifts down; people lose interest and get caught by nirvana elsewhere. I'm not buying though because I have the position I want; I am just contemplating the silence!

Eric

I can`t remember if this has been said before, so apologies if it has.

On 9th August PET put out an rns in response to press speculation and said about the detailed technical information being exchanged, result.. sp rose from 40pish to 60p ish in a couple of weeks.
From then on it rose and fell until the rumour of DH`s death sent the sp down to the mid 40p mark.

On 27th Sept. pet put out an rns about urgent talks etc., on 30th Sept. they released their interims and reiterated the urgent talks etc, result.. sp rocketed to a peak of 1.60 ish. Since then apart from Gartmores holdings rns nothing.The way i see it is if they put out an rns saying they wre still in talks but could`nt say anything because they were sworn to secrecy the price would peak again and then drop back until an announcement of contracts( we hope!), but they would`nt be telling us loyal holders anyhing we already did`nt know. The only people to make money would be the MM`s and day traders.

I think they are right to say nothing, because there is nothing to tell, and apart from not too big a intraday movements it`s pretty steady for such a volatile stock. These movements don`t affect most of us because we are here for the longer term, and most of us regulars average a sub 70p holding.

Just my thoughts, no doubt i`ll be told if it`s b******s!!,
Dexter

We are seriously needing word. No reason for this to bounce whatsoever. Have to consider taking a hit on my holdings which will be a 50% job and a lot of money. Have to apply a little logic here instead of being stubborn. If I sell and loose half, at least what is left is safe. Will be going to Scotland next week so may not be available to scrutanize what is going on. Now would be happy to get money back instead of profit. If good news came SP would immediately be marked up 30% in my guestimation the rest would be for the herd which jumps in. So I reckon on getting back in around the 110p mark if I'm back and good news is forthcoming. In all honesty have no faith in DH as when I sent him the email recently altho' he replyed he couldn't answer my questions about block6 which is not part of the tendering process. This bubble is being deflated and the only support is good news which is not available.z

Zitblot

Understand where you are coming from. But consider the following:

1) We might need word, but it can't be given because of assurances to Iraqi oil ministry (IOM). Reasonable.
2) Any comment could be construed as being relevant by IOM. Not worth the risk.
3) View on this bb is that price would jump to more like 3 which is cap. of some 200M. Not 110p. say low of 2, high of 5. All guestimates; not an exact science.
4) Every one unto his own. View every penny left in as being disposable. If that is 50% of holding, sell half now.
5) No bubble is being deflated except that within each of own minds. That's the reason for waiting patiently in a silent bubble!

Good luck whatever you decide to do. I am waiting for the silence to break before I act!

Eric