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Tom Hougaards thoughts for todays market
rgds
zarif
Good morning,



I will readily admit that I was surprised in a major way by the weakness yesterday evening. I dont know what caused the market to reverse like it. It doesnt really matter. Maybe there is liquidation of a portfolio or maybe it is the rebalancing of the Russell 2000 index. One thing I know is that support is 1132 and this will have to hold otherwise I will lean back on the short side.



The Fed meeting is tomorrow evening and maybe the selling was related to this. Either way we should know today if there is any more selling coming because if it is liquidation the seller will have to get the selling done over the next 12 trading hours. The US futures dipped down to 1127 overnight so we could see more downside today. Usually someone knows something and they will sell ahead to hedge themselves or front run the market. A lot depends on how weak Europe will open up in 20 minutes time.



I am cautiously optimistic that we will see higher prices as long as we can hold this area around 1132. For today I do have a dip near the open and a turn later on today. I suspect volume will dry up going in the FOMC meeting tomorrow, but I also know for a fact that institutions will do anything to keep prices afloat ahead of the 30th June mark-to-market cut off date. As the funds have to be fully invested I will bet that they will hold the market higher. As I stated over the weekend the market favours dip buying this week.



The good news in my mind is that the quarter-end is nearly over and I suspect we will see a 2-3 week straight line move beginning in early July.



Good luck today



Tom

Not trading indexes, but long csco, and looking at hnz and intc for longs and aa short, should get some movement when the movers and shakers get back from their indulgent lunches :-)

Saxo bank analyis and views on the market for today
rgds
zarif

Published: Jun. 30 2004,
This market is whipsawing bulls and bears as FOMC is imminent.


Latest action reverses yesterday's bearish top and looks to higher levels - but still plenty of data on tap.





Note: I'm filling in temporarily for Mr. Robert Balan, who will return to this space on Monday, July 5. I will publish this column once daily in early US hours. - John Hardy

June 30, 2004 - New YorkImportant Data this week:

Today: Chicago PMI for June (US) at 14:00 GMT, FOMC Rate Decision (US) at 18:15 GMT, Tankan Survey for June (Japan) at 23:50 GMT
Thursday: Manufacturing PMI (Europe), ECB Announces Rates (EU), ISM Manufacturing (US)
Friday: Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls (US)
My stab yesterday at predicting a weak Consumer Confidence number based on recent Bush approval ratings was a misstep indeed, as the confidence reading surged to the highest level in 2 years. Apparently the falling of prices at the gas pump and perception and headlines about job growth are having a bigger impact than I would have expected... This helped spark a rally that reversed the previous day's sell-off and gave many traders, including myself, a case of whiplash.

Volume and breadth was nothing to write home about yesterday, but it was interesting to note the kind of stocks that outperformed: semiconductors, Amazon.com, and the like. A very risk-willing market indeed. And the Russell 2000 index, another good risk-willingness measure, managed a new two-month high before retreating slightly at the close. But the broader market will also need to join in if we are to see this rally continue for much longer.

The pivot point today is, of course, the FOMC meeting, with the rate announcement (we STRONGLY believe in a 0.25% hike, which is also the market expectation - a 0.50% hike is a true longshot) coming at 18:15 GMT. The accompanying statement will be one of the most closely scrutinized ever, with signs of more hawkishness than expected the feared scenario - making a dovish tone (for example, a simple repeat of the existing statement) the surprise. I suspect the Fed will adjust it to a slightly more hawkish tone with an adjustment of a word here and there, but will not come out with guns blazing. The market will likely find this acceptable, but the market will be extremely volatile on stronger than expected language, or a 50 basis point move..

The latest action has me expecting the blow-off top scenario sooner rather than later, but I have little confidence in the market's (or my own!) predictability at this point. I'd still like to see how things look on the other side of Friday.

Equity Technicals:

Technicals in this section refer to the September futures for each instrument.


- DAX Index - The DAX is maintaining a tight range after making a marginal new high above 4100 today. The outlook is bullish barring a fall back through 4050, with 4200 the first upside target.

- FTSE 100 Index - The action on the FTSE remains uninspiring, but if there is enough strength elsewhere, it may be able to stave off a fall below 4470 minor support and drift back towards 4550 area resistance.

- S&P 500 - The index rallied after three days of selling off, but still needs to break free of 1150 area resistance to get the bullish theme fully back on track, a scenario that seems favored barring a dip below 1130 again.

- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - The Dow survived its test of the 10300 support area and bounced strongly. That bounce may continue towards 10800 if 10300 is not revisited on the downside.

- NDX 100 - The Nasdaq defied gravity and rallied strong despite the previous day's massive sell-off on the gap higher opening. This is giving trader's whiplash, but the force of the upmove still points upward toward the 1550 top unless 1490 support is taken out once again.

managed a good long on the cable and am short at the moment and in profit will close it soon then wait till fed time.
My thinking is as follows:

Fed days usually follow the pattern of tight range into 19:00 and then move back into 19:15, followed by 2-3 spikes and then the direction....


so going to harass the kids for a while and a cuppa tea.

rgds
zarif

my list of about 10 nas/amex equities just seems to be chopping about with no real progress just yet. have learnt to my cost to leave it alone when its like this so i'll come back tomorrow when the market has sorted its head out...

hi all:
Just closed a good short on the dow and am getting ready to go to leeds for the yorkshire traders meeting.
I think we will see the market go northwards around 19.00-19.30hrs and then make a trek downwards to follow on tomorrow.
just my opinion-yours may be different.

rgds
zarif

Ym on holiday today and so i am downing tools for today aswell.

Went to a seminar by Tom Hougaard on Saturday at Oulton Hall, Leeds and must say thoroughly enjoyed it.

Going to read through all the material again while not trading today.

rgds
zarif

The Future pre-open have done a U turn and are negative. I wonder at open if we are going to dive down or have a trek northwards as usually the !st week in July is and upwards after July the 4th holidays. As they say all will be revealed soon......
rgds
zarif

managed a good short on the dow and long cable came good aswell. Just watching the dow atm as it seems to be making a "U " shape of sorts -well i hope it does than maybe take a quick long scalp. Will wait and see.

zarif

Afternoon all: We had the dow closing in negative territory yesterday and so were most of the bourses in europe aswell.
Today the futures are mildly positive so far the nasdaq is crossing the 200/50day ma and showing weakness. Are we going to have a bounce up or ski down. Usually after a steep drop the market consolidates in a range so better to watch the 10190-10250 range and let the market decide our actions.

ps: no posters on the thread at all lately -is it me or my aftershave?

rgds
zarif

It's the aftershave. :-))

smell`s a bit dont you think.
has to be a sea of blue,and a bounce of 150 points,,,,,,,,,dont wake me up.
has to be on the up,,dave.

daves dazzlers and prodman:
Nice of u to come on. so far ranging and giving small long and short scalps. had a good long on the cable today.

ps DD have asked Tim by email as to how he came by the name The Priest so soon all shall be revealed!!!!

rgds
zarif

it looks like the dow will end up,its about time to.

Morning all: came across this while browsing and is an intersting read so think of it what you may as the writer has done a bit of work using Gann Cycles and numbers.
rgds
zarif

The Dow remained ABOVE 10190 yesterday and also Broke 10245 briefly
finding a high at 10266.

FORTUNATELY FOR BEARS, SO FAR ITS SOLD OFF on the Overnight mkt and
looks like the futures have found new lows.

MY BIG problem NOW is what to expect today.

WILL the market sell off again on the cash market, OR will its turn
back up.

THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY that today MAY prove a MAIN turning
point. TODAY IS EXACTLY 72 years since the 1932 LOW and is a day Ive
awaited for for some months NOW.

72 is a MAIN GANN NUMBER AND CYCLE.

I HAVE TO SAY IM A BIT DISAPPOINTED with where the markets at to
think theres a GREAT possibility of something very special is likely
to occurr.


IF HOWEVER the Dow breaks 10170 today finds a low between 10080 and
10,000 , I would THINK theres a GOOD probability the market will turn
and rally..

TIMING ISNT GOING TO BE EASY as I UNFORTUNATELY do NOT have accurate
data going back to 1932 to give a potential main timing point.

At a BEST ESTIMATE IF we make a LOW as described around 16.18 to
17.30 hrs
Although I also have one potntial high signal in between this time.
However it may be an inverse.

or between 19.00 and 20.00 hrs UK

MAY be better watching PRICE today as an entry point IF the mkt
reaches these levels.

Times UK for EST - 5 hrs

5.48

6.30

7.21

*8.05

9.19

11.11

13.17***

*14.38********???

15.08/
15.14/20*****
15.42/48

16.09
16.18********
16.56

*17.02/08*suggests a top
*17.14/20********
17.31/35?????????

*18.24/28*******
18.47********
18.57*********

*19.02*****
19.26/30
*19.49/53*********

*20.03/09/14*********
*20.34/38*************
20.58

its a flat market,god i wish i was on holiday.lets hope they stay at least 5o points up at end of trade.

Daves Dazzlers: U r right the market is flat. I think the best thing to do is short the mini rallies atm. I think we will probably have an up day tomorrow.
Anyway for today all shall be revealed in a few minutes.
Dave do you do currencies at all as atm the cable,euro etc are doing well.

rgds
zarif

no ,but i just thinking that the dow was good value,at the moment .

Hi Zarif , its the aftershave! Always read your daily thoughts. I trade the dow and US stocks in motion. To-day was Yahoo 90 points and out. Regards MM

MM:
Well done -u have got the right idea as at the moment its best to be in and out quick. Its bad enough to get the entry point correct etc then the biggest dilemma is "when to hod and when to fold"
Nice to have u on board and please keep posting.Just as a car needs fuel to keep going we need the posters to give us "views" along the journey.

rgds
zarif