HELLO,

MY HEART SAYS BUY, MY HEAD SAYS NO!

ANY THOUGHTS?

Ok ,I like the brands and the history.

Mr Waterstone wants his bookshops back and now the whole lot is worth less than 470 million it's do-able, especially if he gets rid of the ELC.

But, can they compete with supermarkets?

Help me!

The word "risky" springs to mind.

FWIW, Borders is apparently considering getting rid of its UK operations, which comprise 72 stores, selling (you guessed it!) books and recorded music. Speculation has been raised (at least, according to a recent issue of The Independent) that HMV/Waterstones may bid for Borders stores, but this was counterbalanced by the view that HMV may have enough trouble already with trying to right its own ship.

That's just the gossip I have heard, and I have done no research whatsoever, but at the end of the day you might find that there are better investments on the High Street.

It's your money, so please do your own research and make your mind up accordingly.

dont go there, customers get hmv gear cheaper at tesco etc...

Starting to pick up ahead of Christmas season.

HMV hit by poor Waterstone's sales.


The boss of Waterstone's has left with immediate effect after the book chain suffered a plunge in sales over the Christmas period.

Parent company HMV reported this morning that like-for-like sales at Waterstone's tumbled by 8.5% in the five weeks to 2 January. The poor results took the shine off a record performance at HMV's entertainment stores. Waterstone's managing director, Gerry Johnson, has paid the price for the poor sales. He left with immediate effect today, to be replaced by HMV group development director Dominic Myers.

Chief executive Simon Fox described Waterstone's recent performance as "unsatisfactory", saying that delays in setting up a distribution hub took focus away from what customers wanted in the chain's high street stores.

"Gerry Johnson and I agreed it was time for a change," he added.

Fox insisted Waterstone's was an "excellent business and brand" and that there was a place on the high street for a specialist bookseller, despite pressures from online retailers such as Amazon, the rise of downloadable ebooks and cut-price bestsellers at supermarkets.

The priorities for the new chief would be "improving the customer proposition", tailoring stores to their local market, managing promotions more effectively, accelerating online and digital book growth and getting further cost synergies from Waterstone's position as part of a larger group, Fox said.

Shares in HMV tumbled by 8% today, losing 7.45p to 84.5p.

It is understood that Johnson will receive his contractual entitlement to a year's salary, which was 312,000 in the last financial year. This is paid in quarterly instalments which would end if Johnson found a new job within the year.

Today's HMV results came on a busy morning for the City, in which electricals chain DSG, owner of PC World, and Primark-owner Associated British Foods emerged as Christmas winners.

HMV's own stores also enjoyed a strong Christmas, with like-for-like sales up by 2.2% in the five-week period. It sold more than 27m CDs, DVDs and games in the run-up to Christmas, with sales of technology products 50% higher.

Fox said this was the chain's third consecutive record-breaking Christmas. The stores it acquired from Zavvi, which collapsed a year ago, performed particularly well. But the group's overall like-for-like sales fell by 1.2% because of the slump at Waterstone's. Freddie George, analyst at Seymour Pierce, cut his profit forecast from 78m to 76m because of the performance at Waterstone's.

The bookseller's sales have been falling steadily for some time, partly because of the rise of web retailers such as Amazon. The collapse of rival Borders in December was also a mixed blessing as Borders slashed prices heavily in an effort to clear its stock.

Johnson defended Waterstone's last November, following a Guardian feature which suggested the chain had helped to "kill" bookselling in the UK. Johnson insisted that Waterstone's was still committed to literature and promoting new authors, despite the rapid changes in the industry.

Loks like HMV may end up like Woolworths a victim of supermarkets and the internet.

or alternatively a winner with the demise of woolworth and now Borders gone too - its two biggest competitors off the scene it has "last man standing" status, the only big high street dvd/cd/gaming/bookselling presence !

It also has a rapidly expanding online music operation with its recent acquisitions, and is also diversifying into live music/ sales and cinema. Is CD/DVD/games going to disappear completely from the high street - I very much doubt it - HMV could clean up with most of the main competition out of the way.

crink are they going to beat the supermarkets on the high street, no their days are numbered, have a look at their last balance sheet and you can see the similarities with the deceased woolies.

Anyone see the article in todays London ES about HMV falling into the hands of Private Equity?

City abuzz with talk of HMV searching for a new master

- COULD HMV fall into the hands of private equity?
That was one of the yarns doing the rounds in the Square Mile today, after retail expert Nick Bubb of Arden Partners said that the chains shares look so cheap that it could attract a venture capital suitor.
The entertainment retailer, which also owns the Waterstones chain of bookshops, is now the last man standing on the High Street after rivals Zavvi and Woolworths collapsed. But investors fears about the threat from the internet and s u p e r m a rke t s has c au s e d the shares to struggle. Management are very focused on realising shareholder value and ultimately we expect the market to give the group more of the benefit of the doubt, Bubb said. If not, then HMV will be very vulnerable to a private equity bid. Either way, we target a bounce back to 95p.
Arden has a buy rating on the shares, which ticked up 0.7p to 69.8p.

HMV has rattled market nerves with disappointing fourth quarter sales. UK & Ireland like-for-like sales tumble 13.2% in fourth quarter.

It is blaming the winter weather and tough comparatives but sceptics see deeper problems, with one analyst labelling the shares a "value trap".

The home of the eponymous film and music stores said its HMV UK & Ireland like-for-like sales tumbled 13.2% in the 16 weeks to April 24.

That "reflects very strong comparatives in this period in the previous two years, reduced levels of campaign activity this year combined with the impact of severe weather at the beginning of the period," it claimed.

In a trading statement, HMV says that its group like-for-like sales, which includes the embattled Waterstone's bookselling chain, fell 10.2%. Total sales, which includes a recently acquired chain of live venues, were down 5.8%.

The sales update has overshadowed HMV's prediction that underlying pre-tax profits will be in line with market expectations of 74.5m. The shares are the steepest fallers on the FTSE 250, down 5.1p, or 6.5%, at 74p.

Turning to Waterstone's, which had a torrid Christmas ending in the departure of managing director Gerry Johnson, HMV Group reported an "improved trend", with like-for-like sales down 4.8%.

But some analysts are not so optimistic about any improvements as HMV continues to battle cut-throat competition from supermarkets and online stores as well as changing consumer habits.

Kate Calvert, analyst at Shore Capital, is quoted as saying on Reuters:

"Like-for-like sales decline of 13.2% for the 16 weeks to April 24 is not a pretty number and a massive change on the 1.4% growth reported for the 10 weeks to January 2."

"We view the shares as a value trap as we do not expect its recent diversifications into live music and ticketing to offset the decline of its core business over the medium term."

HMV is heading on a long term downward trajectory. Keep on selling at 58p now.

I can't believe these are paying a 7.4p dividend.

skin remember woolies?

I'm too young :-)

HMV looks interesting with a double bottom.

Wonder if Euroclear have up to date shorting figs.

Yep here they are.................

Well from Euorclear end of June figures for HMV.........

GB0031575722 HMV GROUP ORD 1P 100675368.95 417274471.86 24.12

24.12% being shorted.

This could be one hell of a bull mover of a bottom when shorters close out.

Bugga it, in for a penny in for a pound, Im going long.

Well would you credit it, Nearly a full deck of Broker Buys for this stock.

Forecast P/E of just over 4 for 2011.

looks like a real bargain to me.

Look at that Divi Yield aswell.

HMV Group PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Oriel Securities
05-07-10 UREV 80.80 13.70 7.40 83.60 14.20 7.40

Charles Stanley Securities
05-07-10 BUY 78.00 13.31 7.40 81.00 13.82 7.40

Shore Capital
02-07-10 SELL 81.00 13.80 7.40 76.00 13.00 7.40

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
02-07-10 BUY 75.98 13.01 7.40 81.62 13.98 7.40

Arden Partners
02-07-10 BUY 77.98 13.00 7.40 84.03 14.10 7.40

Singer Capital Markets Ltd
01-07-10 BUY 76.50 12.70 7.40 82.00 13.80 7.40

Seymour Pierce
25-06-10 BUY 80.00 13.30 7.40

Investec Securities
24-06-10 BUY 80.00 13.70 7.40 84.04 14.38 7.40

The Royal Bank of Scotland NV [R]
04-05-10 HOLD 70.89 12.01 7.40

Numis Securities Ltd
29-04-10 HOLD 80.70 13.20 7.40

Nomura Research Institute
19-02-10 BUY

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 78.79 13.15 7.40 82.65 13.98 7.40
1 Month Change -0.61 -0.21 0.00 2.68 0.59 0.00
3 Month Change -2.04 -0.40 0.00 1.65 0.77 0.00


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS 11.31% 4.05% 6.32%
DPS 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA m 129.73m 136.68m

EBIT m m m

Dividend Yield 13.58% 13.58% 13.58%

Dividend Cover 1.71x 1.78x 1.89x

PER 4.31x 4.14x 3.90x

PEG 0.38f 1.02f 0.62f

Net Asset Value PS p p p

Simon Fox, HMV's youthful chief executive, probably has enough on his plate trying to convince a sceptical City that the future for the entertainment chain is bright. But Nick Bubb, retail guru at Arden Partners, warns that the entertainment chain may soon attract an activist investor.

We are disappointed that HMV does not appear to have a Plan B' to boost its ailing share price [such as] a share buyback programme or a corporate restructuring, said Bubb. If they are not planning that then it may not be too long before an activist investors appears on their share register.

However, Bubb is still a buyer of the shares, calling the company's rating derisory, although he has trimmed his target price from 115p to 90p.
City gossips have HMV as a prime candidate for a private equity takeover. Its shares added p to 58p.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23853768-more-talk-of-a-middle-east-bid-puts-sainsburys-at-top-of-the-ftse-list.do

Isn't this sp the Market's split between
1)believing such a good brand will survive and become income-generating
and
2) the belief that no-one will visit their shops to buy overpriced CD/DVD -or whatever, when they can download and pay little, for just the few tracks (sorry, tunes) they really like - perhaps with a sample of "similar" mixes thrown in as a Bonus.

Contrast 2) with the offering I understand comes from within HMV shops - fixed Albums with nearly all the tracks sounding the same (being the same artists) with some actingas "fillers" - if not in my mind - in the mind of others....
Pop music isn't like a Film, that has a "journey" from the start thro' to the finale.
Rather pop music is . . . . . . more like a "finger buffet" where you pick n' mix.

Woah!......pity Woolworths didn't think of that! - they were so near music and already had a Pick'n'Mix name.
Perhaps HMV should team up with Clinton and Moonpig.....that would be a Combination....you heard it here first!

HMV chart starting to look interesting.

Is this the start of an upleg channel. The lower indicators are just about turning positive.

Got some backing from the fundies camp aswell, whats that retail analyst called Nick Bubb?... seem to remember him a week or two back with a 80p plus target I think. dyor.