Star Energy is currently testing the Avington well in Southern England.
This will take about 4 weeks an RNS news feed said, it started on 25/06/06.

I hope it proves positive so we get a good share price rise!
We are 5% holders but i'm not sure how much in pence potential this is worth for the company.

Another good reason to hold on to this share.

News!

Click HERE

london presentation tomorow night!



http://proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/16

The directors of Enegi Oil (AIM: ENEG), Mariana Resources (AIM: MARL) and Northern Petroleum (AIM: NOP) will be presenting:

Tuesday the 25th November 2008
At the Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, 35 Charles Street, Mayfair, W1J 5EB.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/16

Tomorrow Night

The directors of Enegi Oil (AIM: ENEG), Mariana Resources (AIM: MARL) and Northern Petroleum (AIM: NOP) will be presenting:

Tuesday the 25th November 2008
At the Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, 35 Charles Street, Mayfair, W1J 5EB.

The presentations will start @6:00pm and finish at 7:30pm. After the presentations are complete the directors will also be available to take questions during a free canape and wine reception. Details on the presenting companies can be found below.

Shell as partner ! blimey ! there's a big boy for you ! well when they start the drilling : this will probably be double what it is today and if successful ? A billion or two barrels of oil ?, I'll believe it when I see it.....!, 100 million barrels ? possibly !.

Update, click HERE

Proactive Investors One2One Forums

The directors of Northern Petroleum (AIM: NOP), Caza Oil & Gas (AIM: CAZA), and Pan Andean Resources (AIM: PRE),
will be presenting:

Tuesday the 7th April 2009

Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, 35 Charles Street, Mayfair, W1J 5EB


The presentations will start at 6:00pm and finish at 7:30pm. After the presentations are complete the directors will also be available to take questions during a free canape and wine reception.



FREE registration - Click HERE



If you have any problems registering or queries please email action@proactiveinvestors.com


Nearest tube stations are Green Park, 5 minutes walk, and Bond Street, 7 minutes walk.

This one been missed??...

March 30, 2009

After Years Of Preparation, Northern Petroleum Gets Busy In Italy As Investors Eagerly Await News From Savio-1x


Investors in Northern Petroleum have waited years for the AIM firm to get busy on the ground in Italy, where it is the largest licenced acreage holder. Now, like the proverbial buses that arrive three at a time, there is an embarrassment of newsflow from the waters off Sicily and Pantelleria and onshore in the Po Valley. This is because exploration has its own life cycle and it takes time to mature a project to the point where a company can acquire seismic or drill a well. This maturation process involves many different elements, including technical readiness, financial firepower and bureaucratic approvals, all of which take time in some cases a lot of time to assemble.
With these elements now in place, Northern is pushing ahead on several fronts in Italy, where its potential resource base could run to several billion barrels. Investors are keenly awaiting news from the gas-rich Po Valley in the north of the country, where Northern is now drilling ahead with the Savio-1x well. Although not in the billion barrel league, this is a material target for Northern, with a possible prospective resource of 332 billion cubic feet of gas in Italys well-connected industrial heartland.

This is Northerns first operated well in Italy, described by MD Derek Musgrove as a milestone for the company. The primary target is a 222 bcf resource at a depth of 3,200 metres but there is also a shallower prospect that could hold some 110 bcf of gas. Northern has an 80 per cent interest in the well but, following a 2008 farm-in by Indofin subsidiary Avobone Italy, will pay only 40 per cent of the well costs. The well is about ten days ahead of schedule and casing is being set ahead of drilling into the first gas prospective section of the well.

Any discovery will benefit from the availability of an extensive infrastructure of gas pipelines and gas fired power stations throughout the region which has one of Europe's highest GDPs, said Musgrove earlier this year, describing the odds of success as reasonable. Those odds will be tested in the coming weeks as the well continues its journey down.

Elsewhere, the company has recently completed a 500 km 2D infill seismic survey over its wholly-owned licence CR147 off the Italian island of Pantelleria, work that was designed to define prospects first identified by survey mapping in 2006. These waters are home to several large structures, each with the potential for over 200 million barrels of recoverable oil. The next step will be to bring in farm-in partners to share the costs and risks of drilling. The new seismic data will be critical in attracting potential partners.

The Pantelleria survey came hot on the heels of a 2,463 km 2D seismic shoot over six licences in the West Sicily offshore thrust belt. Here, Northern is partnered by Shell in licences G.R17.NP, G.R18.NP, G.R19.NP, G.R20.NP, G.R21.NP and G.R22.NP following a farm-in deal signed at the back end of 2008. It was a coup for Northern to bag Shell Italia as a partner in a deal that gives the AIM firm access to the industry heavyweights deepwater and regional expertise not to mention its financial clout when it comes to accessing hardware and accelerating work programmes.

Shell and Northern are now on a 55/45 spilt respectively for licences GR17-NP, GR18-NP and GR19-NP and a 70/30 split on licences GR20-NP, GR21-NP and GR22-NP. Shell paid 1.9 million to cover Northern's back-costs on the licences and is also paying for the current seismic programme. If Shell likes what it sees, it will then pay for two 3D seismic surveys and the optional drilling and testing of a first well. Importantly, the two companies may now expand their partnership in Italy, a pairing that could really start to accelerate work on Northerns extensive portfolio.

Northern spotted the potential of the Sicily licences back in 2003, an area that extends for 4,367 sq km, equivalent in size to about 20 North Sea blocks. The Shell deal means it is not alone is seeing prospectivity in these waters that, if successfully drilled up, could open up a new Western European hydrocarbon province. This is all for the future, of course, but with Shell on board it now seems like this project is finally gaining the momentum investors have so long sought.

This used to be the glamour company a couple of years ago and very popular with PI's. This market soon put paid to that!

Good things always come back though DD, that is the test.

True and I'm sure it will along with others such as SLN.

Looks good news to me...

RNS Number : 1372Q
Northern Petroleum PLC
03 April 2009



NORTHERN PETROLEUM PLC

RECOMMENDED OFFER FOR ATI OIL PLC

NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN, INTO OR FROM ANY JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OF SUCH JURISDICTION

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

3 April 2009

Recommended Proposals

for the acquisition

of

ATI Oil plc

by

Northern Petroleum plc

to be effected by way of a Scheme of Arrangement

under Part 26 of the Companies Act 2006

Summary

The Independent Northern Directors and the Independent ATI Directors are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended acquisition by members of the Northern Group of the entire issued and to be issued share capital of ATI not already owned by Northern. Under the terms of the Proposals, which will be subject to the Conditions:

Independent Scheme Shareholders will be entitled to receive 1 New Northern Share for every 8 ATI Shares held at the Scheme Record Time and so in proportion for any ATI Shares held. Fractions of New Northern Shares will not be issued to ATI Shareholders and any fractional entitlements to New Northern Shares will be disregarded.

It is intended that the acquisition will be implemented by way of a Court-sanctioned Scheme of Arrangement under Part 26 of the Companies Act 2006 and a capital reduction under section 135 of the Companies Act 1985. Based on Northern's Closing Price of 95.5 pence per Northern Share on 2 April 2009, being the last Business Day before the date of this announcement. The Proposals value the outstanding issued share capital of ATI at 11.3 million, or 11.9 pence per ATI Share.

The offer of 1 Northern Share for every 8 ATI Shares held represents a premium of 8.5 per cent. per Share to the closing price of each ATI Share of 11.0 pence per share on 2 April 2009, being the last Business Day before the date of this announcement.

Implementation of the Scheme will be conditional upon, amongst other things, the passing of a resolution by a majority in number of those Independent Scheme Shareholders present (either in person or by proxy) and voting at the Court Meeting representing at least three-fourths in value of all Scheme Shares held by such Independent Scheme Shareholders and the passing of resolutions at the General Meeting of ATI.

The Independent ATI Directors, who have been so advised by KBR, consider the terms of the Proposals to be fair and reasonable. Accordingly, the Independent ATI Directors intend unanimously to recommend that the Independent ATI Shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme at the Court Meeting and the resolutions to be proposed at the General Meeting.

Northern believes that it is in the interests of its shareholders to bring Northern and ATI together. This will allow the enlarged group more direct control over its Italian licence interests. ATI's constrained financial position has created difficulties and complications for Northern in progressing the development of its Italian licence interests, including in attracting external partners to participate in these licences.

Northern has received irrevocable commitments in respect of 47,228,000 ATI Shares, representing 50.1 per cent. of the existing issued share capital of ATI, to vote in favour of the resolutions to be proposed at the Court Meeting and the General Meeting to implement the Proposals.

Members of the Northern Group control 34,908,000 ATI Shares, which are registered in the names of Northern, NP Oil & Gas Holdings Limited and Giltspur Nominees and represent as at the date of this announcement 37.0 per cent. of the existing issued share capital of ATI. As a result of their interests in the Proposals, members of the Northern Group are precluded from voting at the Court Meeting or on the resolutions to be proposed at the General Meeting and, therefore, the ATI Shares held or controlled by them will not count towards the majorities required to approve the Scheme or such resolutions.

The Independent ATI Directors will resign from the Board of ATI on the Effective Date.

It is expected that the Court Meeting and the General Meeting to approve the Scheme, sanction the Capital Reduction and deal with certain related matters will be held on 28 May 2009.

It is expected that the Circular setting out further details of the Proposals and the procedures to be followed in connection with the implementation of the Scheme will be posted on or about 28 April 2009 to Scheme Shareholders and that the Proposals will become effective on or about 24 June 2009, subject, inter alia, to the satisfaction or waiver of the conditions set out in Appendix I to this announcement.

Commenting on today's announcement, Richard Latham, Chairman of Northern, said:

'Northern is delighted to have agreed this proposed deal with the independent directors of ATI. Given the current financial turmoil I believe the combination of Northern and ATI will strengthen our Italian position and is therefore in the interests of both companies' shareholders. Control of the entire commercial interests in the licences will enable Northern greater management flexibilities to progress licence activities or seek new partners to finance operations.'

Commenting on today's announcement, Per Gunnar Loge, Chief Executive of ATI, said:

' ATI has believed fully in the business potential of the joint assets in Italy, however, it has been apparent for some time that the equity market has become very difficult for small oil exploration companies and that such new equity capital that could be available would be at a large discount to the current share price. In the opinion of the Board of ATI the deal with Northern offers a better opportunity for shareholders to maintain their interest in the profit potential of these assets at less risk and less devaluation from incoming new equity'

Commenting on today's announcement, Derek Musgrove, Managing Director of Northern and Chairman of ATI said:

'My colleague, Chris Foss, and I sit on the boards of both companies. As a result, we have not taken part in the commercial deliberations leading up to the offer by Northern or the recommendation from ATI , but Chris and I are delighted with the news.'

Investec is acting as financial adviser to Northern. KBR is acting as financial adviser to ATI.

This summary should be read in conjunction with, and is subject to the full text of, this announcement and its appendices. The Proposals will be subject to the Conditions set out in Appendix I to this announcement and to the further terms to be set out in the Circular. Appendix II to this announcement sets out the sources and bases from which the financial calculation contained in this announcement have been derived. Appendix III contains definitions of certain terms used in this summary and in this announcement.

Enquiries:

Northern

Richard Latham, Chairman

Graham Heard, Exploration & Technical Director
Tel: + 44 (0)20 7469 2900




Investec (financial adviser to Northern)

Patrick Robb

Avital Lobel

Michael Ansell
Tel: +44 (0)20 7597 5000




Buchanan Communications (Analysts)

Tim Thompson
Tel: +44 (0)20 7466 5000

Ben Romney






ATI

Per Gunnar Loge, Chief Executive Officer
Tel: +44 (0)20 7469 2940




KBR (financial adviser to ATI)



Hugh Oram
Tel: +44 (0)20 3100 8300

New deal analysis, click here

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20090415153139M0234.html

Seems to have been taken very positively.

SP moving up strongly on a down day.

Winnie as just given his take on the stock across the road.....

Tom Winnifrith


Reged: 06/03/07
Posts: 765
Re: Northern Petroleum []
#443461 - 16/04/09 07:06 AM Edit Reply Quote



first tipped this at 13.75p. should i be posting this in the Tom's disasters thread?

At 111.5p still only valued at less than 90m (post ATI deal). More than a third of that is cash. It is profitable. We know Dutch assets worth at least 90m after Dyas deal (my valuation is actually far higher). What is Italy worth? Well if one of the farm ins comes in then my 45m base case valuation will look very tame indeed. Then there is the UK...

IMHO still very cheap

Tom Winnifrith
www.t1ps.com

PS NOP is a RSH corporate client and the t1ps fund owns stacks of Northern shares.

Another pro putting his weight behind this one.

Zak Mir pro TAer posted this earlier this morning..


Zak Mir



Reged: 28/06/07
Posts: 750
Re: Northern Petroleum ]
#443469 - 16/04/09 08:21 AM Edit Reply Quote



Above Jan resistance / April support at 88p there is a line of July 2008 resistance projecting a 150p target. Any dips towards 100p look like good buy opportunities, especially with golden moving average crosses between the 10,20,50 day lines over the past few weeks.

CATEGORY: SMALL CAPS NEWS SECTOR: OIL & GAS PRODUCERS
Higher prices lift revenue at Northern Petroleum
Fri 17 Apr 2009

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Last years strong energy prices boosted revenue from Northern Petroleums Waalwijk and P12 gas fields by 11%, the high-flying oil and gas group said today.

The fields contributed revenues of about 6m, up from 5.4m in 2007, with oil revenues at Horndean up to $600,000 from $450,000

Net attributable production dipped to 0.12 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) from 0.16 million boe the year before, most of which came from the Waalwijk and P12 gas fields.

They came in with a combined total of about 0.66 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas versus 0.88 bcf in 2007. Production at the Horndean oil field was 2.7% lower at 6,564 barrels for the year.

Northern says it had about 34.9m net cash as at 31 December 2008, much of which is held in euros, providing a natural hedge for the firms ongoing capital expenditure programme. Theres also 8.5m of deferred consideration to come.

"2008 has been another year of significant financial and operational progress, said finance chief Chris Foss. Consequently we stand well positioned to deliver on our primary near term objective of bringing our Dutch developments onstream, whilst looking forward with anticipation to exploration success.

In a separate statement, the company said post hydraulic reservoir fracturing flow testing has been completed on the Ottoland 1 side track during. The well flowed oil and water at improved rates to the July 2007 tests, proving the fracturing programme to be a success.

Full year results are due mid-May.

A rather bullish write up by the t1ps stable yesterday evening, 400p target.

Featured Stock: Northern Petroleum* (NOP)

Tom Winnifrith writes:

We first tipped Northern on t1ps at 13.75p. The t1ps fund started buying in at 60-80p a few months ago and added again aggressivly at 100p the other day. So we are believers. At today's 123.5p the company is valued at c90 million following the all-share buyout of plus listed ATI. Cash and equivalents are worth c35 million. Dutch assets (based on direct trade sale comparables) are worthat least 90 million but recent drilling success suggests 120 million would be cautious. Italian assets could be worth as much again. Northern is profitable and my stance is buy at up to 175p with a target of 400p.Buy.

Zak Mir writes:

Sharecrazy.com community board followers will have read my charting views on Northern a couple of days ago, but it is worth going through the technicals one more time. This is particularly so given the April test for support at former post November resistance of 88p a traditional buy signal. The position now is that while above the green 10 day moving average at 103p on an end of day close stop loss basis one would expect the 3 month target here to be as high as the October rising trend channel at 160p

Embargoed for release: 1030 on 21 April 2009

Northern Petroleum Plc

("Northern" or the "Group")

Two Well Netherlands Drilling Programme Commences

Northern announces that its wholly owned subsidiary Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V ("NPN") has
commenced drilling operations on the exploration well Nieuwendijk-1 in the Andel III licence at
2300 on 20 April 2009 using a newly fabricated rig owned and operated by the Northern Dutch
Drilling Company located in Drachten, The Netherlands.

The prospect is close to the Ottoland field. It has a mean estimated size of 56 million barrels of
oil in place. Upon completion the activities will move to the Tiendeveen site in the Drenthe III
licence in the east of The Netherlands.

Licence and working interests:

NPN: 45%
EBN: 40%
Dyas: B.V. 15%

Post drilling NPN's interests in the Nieuwendijk and Tiendeveen wells will be 22.5%.

In accordance with the AIM Rules - Guidance for Mining and Oil & Gas Companies, the information
contained in this announcement has been reviewed and signed off by the Exploration and Technical
Director of Northern, Mr Graham Heard CGeol FGS, who has over 30 years experience as a petroleum
geologist.

For further information please contact:

Northern Petroleum Plc Tel: +44 (0) 20 7469 2900
Chris Foss, Finance Director
Graham Heard, Exploration & Technical Director

Investec (NOMAD and Financial Adviser) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7597 5000
Michael Ansell / Patrick Robb

Blue Oar (Joint Broker) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7448 4400
Jerry Keen / Toby Gibbs

Jefferies International (Joint Broker) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7029 8000
Chris Snoxall / Schuyler Evans

Bishopsgate Communications (Press) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7562 3350
Nick Rome / Michael Kinirons

Buchanan Communications (Analysts) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7466 5000
Tim Thompson / Ben Romney

For further information on the Group and its activities please refer to the website at

www.northpet.com

NOP has gone down 30% over past couple of weeks

is this another u got wrong as its going up again?

this is now even higher since that muppet hy leo posted that it had recent fall.......the trick is to estimate BEFOEHAND whether a share goes up or down. as always this is another gonzo ala hyleo got wrong.

apologoies to gonzo the muppet

over 130p now.......another hyleo short burning after he probably did this at sub 100p

We might be on the verge of a breakout....I can see the rising trend possibly about to jump upwards sharply...

poor old hyleo

Sp about to jump higher....the trend is there and this has a tendancy to stumble and then rocket sharply....

This is like a recoiled spring....about to fly....

hyleo shorts are burning on this one at under a quid......ouch

It's a good one...more to come...

will hileo have any shorts to burn by then? lol.....poor sod will need to buy back and lose a fortune.....double whammy

He's bound to have closed a lot of shorts by now, in bad times that's the only thing to do...never tried it yet myself but will do one day.

hyleo is still shorting shares......well he types in only occasionally now but still shorting........he came onto NOP when it went under a quid

TIDMNOP

Geesbrug ? Another Fracturing Exceeding Expectations
28 September 2009


Northern Petroleum Plc
("Northern" or "The Company" or "NOP")

GEESBRUG - ANOTHER FRACTURING EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS


Hydraulic fracturing in the Geesbrug-1 well of the Carboniferous Hardenberg and Permian Rotliegend
formations in the Dutch Drenthe III licence area has been successfully completed.

Post fracturing the well has flowed on test beyond the upper range of Northern's expectations with stable
gas flow rates of 450,000 m3/d (16.7 MMscf/d) and flowing wellhead absolute pressures of 170 bar (2465
psia) on a 36/64" choke. Measurements made during tests combining flow from both the Rotliegend and
Hardenberg formations, indicated that the Rotliegend formation alone is capable of flowing at over 260,000
m/d (9.6 mmscf/d).

This highly successful five well programme of hydraulic fracturing of reservoirs carried out at Brakel,
Wijk en Aalburg, Ottoland, Grolloo and Geesbrug over the last ten months is now concluded. Construction
activities for short pipelines have commenced for the tie in for production of the Geesbrug and Grolloo
fields.

These results also have much relevance to the Tiendeveen prospect currently drilling 3.8 kms northwest of
Geesbrug targeting the same formation.

"The results of hydraulic fracturing have already exceeded even our upside expectations. Even with the
upcoming tests results of Rotliegend still to be analysed, shareholders and the Northern team should relish
bringing the Grolloo and Geesbrug fields on production providing a strong revenue stream." said Derek
Musgrove, Managing Director of Northern.

NPN maintains a 45% licence and working interest, with EBN and Dyas respectively holding 40% and 15%.
In accordance with the AIM Rules - Guidance for Mining and Oil & Gas Companies, the information contained
in this announcement has been reviewed and signed off by the Exploration and Technical Director of Northern
Petroleum Plc, Mr Graham Heard CGeol FGS, who has over 35 years experience as a petroleum geologist.

---ENDS---

For further information please contact:

Northern Petroleum Plc Tel: +44 (0) 20 7469 2900
Derek Musgrove, Managing Director
Chris Foss, Finance Director
Graham Heard, Exploration & Technical Director
Sophie Hull, Head of Corporate Communications

Jefferies International Tel: +44 (0) 20 7029 8000
Chris Snoxall / Schuyler Evans

Astaire Securities Tel: +44 (0) 20 7448 4400
Jerry Keen / Toby Gibbs

Bishopsgate Communications (Press) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7562 3350
Nick Rome / Michael Kinirons

Buchanan Communications (Analysts) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7466 5000
Tim Thompson / Ben Romney


Notes to Editors:

Northern is an AIM quoted oil and gas production, development, exploration and asset trading company
focused on petroleum producing areas of low political risk in Europe. The Company strategy is to obtain
significant and concentrated licence positions then add value at reasonable risk utilising new ideas
together with new drilling, seismic, completion, field development and computer technologies to establish
economic oil and gas production.

The Company's activities are concentrated in three countries (Netherlands, Italy and England) with the risk
spread over more than 50 projects in 12 petroleum systems. Following the recent acquisition of ATI Oil
Plc, Northern holds over 103 million barrels of reported Proven & Probable Reserves. It has interests in 4
producing fields, both onshore and offshore, one of which it manages.

The development of six onshore oil and gas fields is being progressed in The Netherlands under Northern
management (Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V.) with Dyas B.V., EBN, the Netherlands' state oil company, and
NAM.

Northern currently manages the largest licensed exploration area in Italy, over 15,000km, predominantly
offshore, but includes six onshore permits in the Po Valley gas and oil province in the north of the
country.

UK production comes from a 10% interest in the Horndean oil field and a 5% interest in the Avington oil
field, both in West Sussex and Hampshire respectively. It also has planning consents to drill in the near
future an eastward extension of the Horndean oil field and an exploration well at Havant. Northern has a
50% interest in these ventures.

For further information on Northern visit www.northpet.com.

great news today!

poor old hyleo been shorting around a quid, lol

DJ Northern Petroleum Discovers Gas At Tiendeveen-1 Well

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Northern Petroleum PLC(NOP.LN), said Thursday that gas has been discovered in the Tiendeveen -1 exploration well.

MAIN FACTS:

-The gas in the Permian Zechstein carbonates which had been identified as a secondary target in the well has been confirmed from wireline logs and drilling data.

-The Geesbrug gas field which Northern is developing nearby is also gas bearing in the same Zechstein reservoir.

-Northern will review both the Tiendeveen and Geesbrug data to assess the range of possible reserves, development options and synergies.

-No potential gas in place volumes were assigned to the Zechstein prior to drilling.

-The intermediate casing will now be run in the hole cemented and pressure tested before the drilling deeper to the primary reservoir targets located in the Permian Rotliegend sandstone and the Carboniferous Dalen and Hardenberg sandstones.

-The estimated mean potential gas in place for these reservoirs is 60 bcf with an upside P10 potential of 98 bcf.

-Once drilling has been completed further wireline logging will be undertaken on Tiendeveen to confirm the presence of hydrocarbons in the deeper primary targets.

-Partners in the well are Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V. (NPN is a wholly owned subsidiary of Northern) with 45%, EBN, the state oil company and Dyas B.V. with 40% and 15% respectively.

-By London Bureau, Dow Jones Newswires; Contact Ian Walker; +44 (0)20 7842 9296; ian.walker@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 08, 2009 06:05 ET (10:05 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

nd October 2009
Analyst: Thomas Jones
thomas.jones@t1ps.com
020 7562 3371

Northern =2 0 Petroleum* Interim Results Reconfirm Portfolio Wide Progress. Buy with Target Price of 334p.


Key Data


EPIC

NOP
=0 A


Share Price

133.75p


Spread

131p 136.5p


Total no of shares

78,885,326


Market Cap

105.5 million


12 Month Range

53p 141p

Net Cash

28 million (est)

NMS

15,000

Market

AIM

Website

www.northpet.com

Sector

Oil & Gas Producer

Contact

Derek Musgrove, Managing Director, Tel: 020 7743 6080
On the 30th of September, Northern Petroleum released its results for the 6 months to 30th June 2009, with a strong balance sheet backed by operational success across its portfolio the highlights. 20Northern maintains a very positive outlook, with 2013 net production targeted at 6,000 boepd (barrels of oil equivalent per day) as the company looks to complement major development in both Italy and the Netherlands with a material contribution from the UK.
The June 2009 acquisition of the remaining 63% not owned by Northern of ATI Oil Plc, increased Northerns attributable probable oil resources in Italy from 26.61 MMbbl (million barrels of oil) to 53.22 MMbbl and total proven & probable oil equivalent reserves to 103 million barrels. The acquisition made operational and financial sense as it brought all decision making on its previous ATI-Northern JV in-house and avoided the prospect of ATI not being able to fund its development obligations.
The farm-out of six Sicily channel licences to Shell Italia E&P Spa was initiated in January 2009 with Shell paying 1.9 million in back-costs and assuming operational responsibility once the initi al seismic phase is complete and drilling begins. This seismic phase was completed in March 2009 with 2,463 kilometres of data acquired across the 6 licences. With Shell now funding this development, Northern is able to maintain momentum while directing its focus elsewhere.
Part of this focus found a home in the Netherlands with the companys fracturing programme achieving better than expected results, propelling the Grolloo and Geesbrug gas fields to a position of being production ready before the end of this year, and Brakel and Wijk en Aalburg to a similar position in early 2010. Grolloo and Geesbrug are in the process of being tied into their nearby processing facility, while two processing plants are being manufactured in Canada for Brakel and Wijk. Attention will then return to the Ottoland and Papekop oil fields before further drilling is planned at Utrecht.
Back to Italy and Northern was awarded 5 more offshore licences to take its licence holding in th e country to 15,000 square kilometres and, with more applications having been submitted, Northerns acreage is set to grow. This, along with a constructive response from stakeholders in the UK, where production continues at Horndean, and Markwells Wood and Havant are set to be drilled in 2010, means the company is keeping its pipeline full despite the glut of near production licences coming on stream.
Finally Tullow Oil Plc, operator of Northerns 1.25% owned offshore licence in Guyane, is in the process of acquiring 3D seismic data which should reveal drilling targets for follow up work in the hope of replicating Tullows recent success in Ghana and Sierra Leone.
Financially, Northerns revenue remained stable at 2.8 million (2.9 million in the 6 months to 30th June 2008), with a higher average gas price of 42.63 per boe (40.66 in 2008), enough to all but offset the lower average oil price of 48.07 per boe (103 .94 in 2008) and lower production of 61,000 boe (65,000 boe in 2008). A 92% decline in foreign exchange gains (0.15 million vs 1.97 million in 2008) saw the groups pre tax position turn negative with a loss of 0.53 million in the 6 months to 30th June 2009 compared to a profit of 1.68 million in 2008. Consequently, the loss per share was 0.1 Euro cents, down from an earnings per share result of 2.1 Euro cents in 2008. Northern remained debt free and, despite capital expenditure of 10 million in the first half of 2009, retained a net cash position of 27.9 million at the balance sheet date, just below the equivalent figure at 30th June 2008 of 31.4 million.
Having increased our valuation of Northern earlier this year on the back of the ATI transaction, we maintain our target price at 334p for now, but with more licence applications outstanding and exploration happening across its portfolio, there is plenty of upside for new investors. With the company having entered =0 A the FTSE AIM UK50 index on the 11th of August 2009, we reiterate our buy recommendation with 334p target price.




Forecast Table
Year to 31st Dec

Sales ( Million)

Pre-tax Profit ( Million)

Earnings Per Share (cents)

Price Earnings Ratio

Dividends Per Share (p)

Dividend Yield (%)
2007A

5.9

30.1

29.7

5.0

0

0.0
2008A^

7.0

11.6

14.1

10.4

0

0.0
2009E

12.0

6.0

5.4

27.2

0

0.0
2010E

20.0

12.0

11.0

13.4

0

0.0
includes Dyas transaction (Strategic Alliance Agreement)
^Includes sale of Waalwijk underground gas storage ("UGS") projects

Is it me? Can't see sense in the data given above, when I can read it correctly formatted from their Website/RNS.

FWIW, NOP looks to be a sensible player coming good. - - - - and - - - I'm in profit, =Gooddy!

Why peeps don't preview post's and edit the bits that don't work, plus close up all the spaces... I'll never know.

Balerboy, agreed.
- Can I ask if under "Director Deals" you find this site's text rather small? . . . for me, it is small, to the point where it's unreadable....

. . . =Shame, as it's potentially useful data . . . .

New article, click HERE

Hangon, am very sorry i didn't reply to last post, must of missed it as this is the first i've seen of it. No offence meant. BB

Northern starts to deliver

BULL POINTS:

■ Growing production from substantial reserves

■ Operates in stable countries

■ Strong balance sheet

■ Proven deal doing ability

BEAR POINTS:

■ Previous project delays

■ Limited focus on exploration


Northern Petroleum operates in stable European countries - principally Holland and Italy - and has built up a portfolio of substantial reserves from which production should grow strongly over the next five years. To top that, it offers high-impact exploration potential.

Its current focus is Holland, where the group is already a gas producer and has been working to bring into production four further gas fields and two oil fields. The Grolloo gas field, the first of these six, started production last week at a rate of 7.4m cubic feet per day and the group plans to bring a second gas field, Geesbrug, into production before the end of 2009. The Wijk en Aalburg and Brakel gas fields should begin producing next March or April, and should lift daily production to 30m cubic feet next year. Including existing UK and Dutch production, aggregate group production could reach 2,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by the end of next year. This will go a long way towards dispelling memories of Nothern's previous project delays.

Northern's partner on the six-field development is Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (NAM), Holland's largest gas producer, to whom Northern sells the gas it produces. NAM's gas processing facilities were designed for significantly higher volumes of gas than Northern's initial planned volumes, so it has demand for more gas. This gives Northern scope to increase production, particularly at Geesbrug and Brakel, by drilling additional wells. Furthermore, high flow rates from gas wells suggest that some depleting fields may offer longer term potential for gas storage, which would be a further source of revenues.

Developing its two Dutch oil fields, Northern will conduct long-term production testing on the Ottoland field in the first half of 2010 and on the Papekop field later in the year. Once all six oil and gas fields are onstream, aggregate daily production net to Northern is expected to reach 6,000 barrels of oil equivalent by 2013.


NORTHERN PETROLEUM (NOP)
ORD PRICE: 132p MARKET VALUE: 104m
TOUCH: 129-132p 12-MONTH HIGH: 163p LOW: 63p
DIVIDEND YIELD: nil PE RATIO: 20
NET ASSET VALUE: 87p NET CASH: 27.9m

Beta: 1.2

*Edison Investment Research estimates (Profits & earnings not comparable with historic figures) 1= 1.106

Northern's recent focus has been on developing its six-field project rather than on exploration. This means less risk, but also less long-term potential. Nevertheless, the group has been drilling exploration wells and has more planned. It enjoyed exploration success at its Tiendeveen prospect on the Dutch mainland. This could hold some 67bn cubic feet of gas plus condensates. Northern is currently appraising this discovery.

Northern's second major area of operation is Italy, where it holds substantial exploration acreage. These include prospects off western Sicily, in the Sicily Channel and the southern Adriatic. The group will be conducting a large seismic survey offshore Sicily in 2010 and has identified two high-potential prospects in the Sicily Channel that it plans to drill.

Northern has a strong balance sheet, with net cash of 28m at the end of June, which supports its high level of activity. The group has also demonstrated an ability to negotiate attractive asset deals to leverage existing resources and bring in strong industry partners. Last year, it sold its interests in a gas storage project application for 7m plus 3m of contingent payments. The group also farmed out to Shell interests in six offshore licences in the Sicily Channel that offer significant exploration upside. Northern will keep interest of between 30 and 45 per cent, while Shell carries out work estimated to cost in excess of 100m (90m).

Keep on buying NOP.

Northern Petroleum* Consistent Progress Builds Broad Portfolio and Attracts Industry Majors: www.uk-analyst.com

Not doing well, made profit of 9 million euros in 2008 but sink into losses of 2 million euros in 2009.

not following your jan advice then hlyeo ....

Bailed out at 140p in Jan with a loss.

Not one of TW's best tips....real crap performance by the sp.....

TW still thinks their sp should be north of 300p .....is he delusional? Remind him about NXS and many others.

Support at 90p is going to crumble very soon... TW is stupid!

The issue over sp is partly due to company valuation of reserves....ereserves are only "estimates" but those who know about Oil/Gas can be fairly confident based on experience. However, punters always fear they are being sold a pup and until NOP is paying a dividend (er, unlike BP, Ho-Ho), there is room for unrest.
The company claims their estimates are very conservative...that they expect all reserves will be greater (esp as tech improves, etc.).
If these areserves come on-stream soon -why wouldn't they? Then the NAV is the volume/price.
Their estimates of revenue are DYOR based on USD40/barrel, not the fluctuating $70 currently, so by this measure alone their reserves are of further greater value.

I guess that until they sell the big stuff, no-one will believe probabilities, however conservatively they are valued. It's still "a hole in the ground syndrome".

That makes it worthwhile to punt.
+ I guess my average is about 10p above current sp. If it falls a lot (eg on new Regulations, due to the BP worries, etc) then I might buy some more.

I hope this is one of the better AIM-prospects, although much of the good news is in the price, until they start selling more; this would demonstrate their figures.
I don't think it helps to have paid-for Reports that have been unreliable when other businesses are puffed-up, only to fail later on, with poor management, for example.

Support is crumbling now.

bombing today?

Support at 90p broken again... next week will have a better picture.

FWIW I think this partly a result of BP/Gulf - that any "new" drilling will have a huge mountain of Enviro Paperwork to process. Until it is made more certain I expect this will slip.
However, it makes no difference to the fundamentals - if the oil is there...it's still there and the Market in Oil isn't going away.

If it falls to sub-50p I shall be buying more, but not yet.

28th October 2010 Analyst: Dr Michael Green
Email:michael.green@gecr.co.uk
Tel: 0207 562 3371

Northern Petroleum* - Reinitiate Coverage at 88.75p: Strong Buy with a 134p target price


Key Data

EPIC
NOP
Share Price
88.75p
NMS
2,000
Spread
87.5p - 90.25p
Total no of Shares
91.987445 million
Market Cap
GBP 81.6 million
12 Month Range
81.75p - 170p

Market
AIM

Website
www.northpet.com

Sector
Oil & Gas Producers
Contact
Derek Musgrove
020 7469 2900




Northern Petroleum (Northern) has a series of potential half a billion plus barrel prospects to explore off the coast of Italy; where success could be transformational for the Company.

These exciting prospects lie within four core areas, one of which has already been snapped up by Shell, leaving three more core areas to trade. Northern has acquired a large number of key licences in prospective areas in offshore Italy, which is equivalent in size to more than 85 North Sea blocks. With applications pending, it could be that the Company ends up with a licence area about the same size as that of ENI, the Italian multinational oil and gas company. Northern is now beginning the process of unlocking value offshore in Italy with drilling. Its partner Shell is expected to make a drilling decision shortly on the West Sicily Thrust Belt for a well to be drilled in 2012 which could led to a strong rerating of the shares.

Over the past decade, Northern has consistently added shareholder value by growing its portfolio of good quality oil and gas prospects without paying high entry costs. The real focus has been on low priced assets where value can be added at a relatively low cost. At the heart of the strategy is the winning of valuable exploration licences which is followed by the Company undertaking the necessary geological, geophysical and engineering work to dramatically add value before inviting larger players to farmin into the projects at an exploration or development stage, or traded to acquire production. Not only has Northern an impressive track record in acquiring assets cheaply, but also has made 40m of trading profits from disposals of non-core interests.

Alongside the blue sky potential of Italy lies the strong growth in production in The Netherlands which underpins the share price. The board has its sights firmly set on a target producing 5,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2015. Northern has a firm platform for this with current production of 1,200 boepd which is expected to climb to 2,250 boepd in early 2011. In September, the Brakel field came on stream which is the third of six onshore oil and gas fields that Northern has brought into production. The Brakel field is part of the Company's first multi-field gas development which is expected to be completed early next year when the fourth field the Wijk en Aalburg commences production. Once that has been achieved, Northern will be turning its attention on getting the Ottoland and Papekop oil fields to come on stream.

The board has revised the growth strategy which involves speeding up the development of assets in Italy and The Netherlands by increased investment. At the AGM in June 2010, the Directors highlighted what was required to implement such a strategy. The appraisal and exploration projects in Italy are to be accelerated by acquiring more seismic data which will allow farmouts to be agreed at better terms. At the same time development of the North Ottoland and Everdingen South in the south of the Netherlands as well as the Oosterwolde and Zuid Frieslandin the north of the country are to be fast tracked to production.

In order to get a better understanding of these new core areas in Italy, the board is acquiring more data ahead of inviting in partners to help fund the drilling. Already a farmout deal has been agreed with Shell covering six permits on the Company's acreage off-shore Sicily. The team is also seeking to agree farmout deals on the other three core areas which are: Sicily Channel Basins, the Durres Basin in the South Adriatic Sea and the Crotone Basin in the Ionian Sea. The recent proposed ban of any oil production within 5 miles of the Italian shoreline will have little material effect on Northern as its most of its acreage is further away from the coastline.

The City does not appear to yet understand Northern's new focus on accelerating exploration activities in Italy whilst production is being ramped up in The Netherlands. Today, Northern share lie at a price that begs attention as it fails to reflect the obvious upside potential within the Company. Perhaps the share price has suffered unduly over the past twelve months as progress in The Netherlands was not as rapid as expected. Certainly there seems to be a buying opportunity as the stock is taking its time to recover from the 10 million placing at 85p which was raised at the deeply discounted level of 85p that may have smacked of desperation and damaged investor confidence.

Our analysis suggests that the share price of Northern is substantially undervalued. Peer comparisons allow us to place a target price on the shares of 134p. We reinitiate our coverage, at 88.75p, with a stance of strong buy.

Year to 30 December
Sales ( m)
(EUR000)
Pre-tax Profit ( m)
(EUR000)
Earnings per share (cents)
Price Earnings Ratio
Dividend (p)
Yield (%)

2008A
6.95
11.56
14.10
7.2
0
0.0

2009A
5.08
(3.12)
(2.90)
-
0
0.0

2010E
13.00
2.70
0.7
145.8
0
0.0

2011E
23.50
10.00
4.2
24.3
0
0.0


Source: Growth Equities & Company Research

* Northern Petroleum is a corporate client of Bishopsgate Communications which is owned by RSH the ultimate owner of GE&CR. Funds managed by another RSH subsidiary own shares in Northern Petroleum

Background

During the past ten years, Northern has been transformed from an explorer to a developer and producer; which has allowed the share price to increase more than six-fold. The process began in 2000, when the Company raised 1.25 million at 3.125p (15.625p in today's post consolidation terms) to fund exploration in Italy, Albania and southern England. Later that year Northern was successful in the UK 9th Round Landward Licensing and was awarded licences in the Isle of Wight and Portsdown, Hampshire area in a consortium where the Company held a 20% stake.

In 2002, Northern applied for seven licences in Italy and to add to the six UK licences that the Company already held. In 2004, there was farmin expansion in the licences in the UK and the first licence area was awarded in Italy. In 2005, Northern reached an agreement with NAM (The Netherland's largest gas producer which is a joint venture between Shell and ExxonMobil) to take five undeveloped discoveries and a number of exploration licences with no upfront payment. 2005 saw a 1-for-5 share consolidation that removed Northern's penny share status and brought the stock to the attention of institutional investors. In 2006, the Company raised 20 million at 130p primarily to fund the further development in Italy and UK interests. Last year, production continued to grow as in The Netherlands the Grolloo and Geesbrug gas fields came on stream as well as the Avington oil field in the UK.

Whilst at the same time, in Italy, having been awarded an increasing number of licences, the Company acquired all the outstanding shares in ATI Oil Plc. This is a company which Northern had spun off in 2004 as initially a 69% owned Italian-focused exploration play on the PLUS market. However ATI Oil had become a lot more significant to the Company as the management refocused growth strategy on development and production in Italy and The Netherlands. In June 2010, a further 10 million was raised at 85p per share to accelerate the development of assets in Italy and The Netherlands.

Overview of Operations

Northern targets exploration, development and production of oil and gas interests in countries of the world with low geopolitical risk. The Company has been nimble enough to assemble an impressive acreage which seems highly prospective for hydrocarbons in Italy which offers investors blue sky potential. This is backed by the development of assets in The Netherland where production is being ramped up. Below we investigate the Company's current operations.

Italy

Northern's involvement in the country began in 2002 and the Company is enjoying first mover advantage which has allowed the management team to assemble a very large licence area in offshore Italy. These licences cover a net 14,710 square kilometres which clearly contain a number of prospects that have the potential to be in excess of half billion barrel of oil. The first of these looks likely to be drilled in the West Sicily Thrust Belt in 2012, by Shell which the Company's farmin partner in that core area. The Company's work programme until 2012 includes an onshore exploration well at La Tosca in the Po Valley in 2011, where a farmout deal is expected to be agreed soon.

In the wake of BP's disaster with a deep water well in the Gulf of Mexico, the Italian Government rushed out legislation that restricts oil and gas production within 5 kilometres off the coast line and within 12 kilometres of a marine park. Other operators such as Mediterranean Oil & Gas and Petroceltic have received substantial press attention over this issue as these companies' exploration interests in offshore Italy which may have been decimated by this new law. It must be pointed out that Northern from the beginning has focused on the deeper water which is further offshore which means that its exploration licences have not be materially affected by this legislation.


Northern has 5 onshore exploration licences, 21 offshore exploration licences and 6 offshore applications in Italy. In the country, the Company has 2P reserves of 53.2 million barrels of oil equivalent (100% oil) and has already identified Prospective resources of 8.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent identified so date. Certainly Italy has attractive low royalties between 4%-7% and a 33% tax rate.

The board plans to acquire more data to better understand the newer core areas as well as bringing in partners to help fund drilling. In 2009, ATI Oil Plc was acquired which served to double Northern's reserves and licence area in Italy. The team is also seeking to agree farmout deals on the three core areas which are still available to trade, namely: Sicily Channel Basins, the Durres Basin in the South Adriatic Sea and the Crotone Basin in the Ionian Sea.

Offshore West of Sicily Thrust and Fold Belt - This is the area where Shell has farmed into six licences with an option to drill and test an exploration well in 2012 with Northern acting as the operator. Large 3D seismic data covering an area of 1,520 square kilometres has been acquired and is now being processed with a drill decision expected within the coming months. Prospective resources (P50) gross 2.75 billion barrels and net 1.05 billion barrels.

The 3D seismic targets are two prospects which have a Prospective Resource (P50) of 1.75 billion barrels gross. Shell have picked up all the past costs for the 2D and 3D seismic programme and to earn an interest will pay for the drilling and testing of the well. The management believe that these licences are the riskiest in the portfolio but this higher risk maybe comes with higher reward. The seismic data has just been acquired and the analysis of that looks likely to result in a drilling decision in early 2011.

Durres Basin in the South Adriatic Sea - To date seven wells have been drilled by others testing five prospects all of which have been successful; with the Rovesti and Giove discoveries had identified two oil fields with probable reserves of 53.16 million barrels. A third party report evaluates a mean 3 billion barrels of oil in place for 6 prospects in just two of seven licences. 2D seismic survey is planned for 2010/11 of both the oil and the gas prospects after which the farmout process will begin, as the Company does not want to give this away too early or too cheaply. Prospective resource (P50) has been estimated at gross 3.75 billion barrels and 9 trillion cubic feet. Gas prospects d71F.R-.NP and d72F.R-.NP are adjacent to the Cairn operated Albanian licence on which 3D seismic has been acquired and a well is planned for 2011.

Crotone Basin in the Ionian Sea - Gas discoveries and significant additional prospects close to existing infrastructure. The preliminary awarded licence d59FR-.NP includes three gas discoveries. The management intend to purchase or acquire 2D and 3D seismic following the full award of the licence. The farmout process will begin following the evaluation of the seismic data. Apparently applications offshore on trend with billion barrel Val d'Agri/Temp Rossa oil complex in Southern Apennines (Eni/Shell/ExxonMobil/Total). Shell has recently been awarded the neighbouring block.

Sicily Channel Basin - Two high impact oil prospects being farmed out.

Po Valley - Onshore - La Tosca prospect in the Longastrino Licence is planned for drilling 2011 after the farmout where there is a 38 billion standard cubic feet gross Prospective Resource (P50).

Netherlands

Although the Netherlands may have been written off by some in the oil and gas industry as a mature province with limited potential, Northern has managed to gain licences which have allowed the Company to produce oil and gas profitably from undeveloped discoveries within proven oil and gas producing areas. In adopting an innovative approach to operating, the team has taken technology and techniques used in the oil and gas industry elsewhere in the world and employed them in The Netherlands for the first time on over fifty undeveloped discoveries and many undrilled small to medium sized structures that have escaped attention as they were too small to interest the majors. After five years development work, production began in 2009 and now four fields are on stream producing revenue with two more fields that are due to come on stream in 2011. In the future, the existing fields and new development are likely to be subject to infill drilling following the reappraisal of existing we ll results and an expanded data base of information on the geology. There is little doubt that the Company has an impressive pipeline of new production projects.


In the Netherlands, Northern has 7 onshore production licences (6 onshore and 1 offshore), 3 onshore exploration licences and 4 gas fields in production. 2P reserves in the country total 42.7 million barrels of oil equivalent (25% oil, 75% gas). Whilst Contingent Resources (P50) for Kerkwijk, Willeskop, Meerkerk and North Ottoland discoveries are gross 81 billion scf and net 42.9 billion scf; and Prospective Resources (P50) for Everdingen South, Meerkerk South and North Ottoland prospects are gross 179 billion scf and net 107.4 billion scf.

Grolloo and Geesbrug gas fields - Came on stream in 2009 with gross gas reserves independently assessed at 178 and 152 billion cubic feet of Probable reserves respectively. Gas from these fields travels by pipeline to the NAM processing facilities. The second stage of the development of these projects will see Northern installing its own gas processing plants at the Wijk en Aalburg and Brakel gas fields. Initial production at Grolloo was 200,000 normal cubic metres, or 7.4 million cubic feet per day, with the Proven and Probable reserve net to Northern of 10.52 billion cubic feet. Geesbrug is the bigger of the two fields with Proven and Probable reserves of 137.85 billion cubic feet (23.8 million barrels of oil equivalent); and additional wells may be drilled to boost production but this would require a modification to the pipleline system designed to take 200,000 cubic metres per day to NAM. The combined production of net to Northern from Grolloo and Geesbrug gas fields is 6 .7 million cubic feet a day (1,150 barrels of oil per day). On the Drenthe III licence 3.8 kilometres from the pipeline tie-in at the Geesbrug gas field lies the Tiendeveen exploration well which if tests prove successful will increase the reserves and production at this licence area. Tiendeveen was part of the original deal with NAM in 2005 and a good return is expected here as the cost of drilling two dry wells will be refunded out of production.

Brakel and Wijk en Aalburg and gas fields - These fields are due to be brought onstream in 2010 using gas plants built in Canada employing superior technology that allows such plants to be less than a sixth of the size and under a quarter of the cost of those available locally. When Grolloo, Geesbrug, Wijk en Aalburg and Brakel gas fields are all onstream, combined daily production should be 800,000 cubic metres or 30 million cubic feet. Gas plants installed on site will allow production to be exported through its own pipeline into the gas network. These two fields are around the same size as Grolloo with net Northern 2P reserves being 10.25 and 5.49 billion cubic feet respectively for Brakel and Wijk en Aalburg. The Brakel field commenced production in September 2010 with forecasted contracted gross sales volume of 200,000 normal cubic meters per day (7.4mmscfd or 1,280 boepd) where Northern is the operator and has a 45% licence interest. Start-up for the Wijk en Aalburg dis covery in the same licence is scheduled for early 2011.

Ottoland and Papekop oil fields - These represent the third stage of the Netherlands development project and initially a long term oil production test will be carried out in order to complete the design of the field facilities. Northern will be focusing its attention on getting the Ottoland and Papekop oil fields into production, once the multi-field gas development project (Grolloo, Geesburg, Wijk an Aalburg and Brakel) mentioned above has been completed. An appraisal well was drilled in 2007 at Ottoland with a long term production test planned next year and followed by production from Papekop which could commence in 2012.

Waalwijk and P12 fields - Work has been undertaken to extend the life of these fields. As well as a producing field, Waalwijk has dual role as it will act as a remote control centre for new fields that are coming onstream. P12 was acquired in 2007 and in 2009 had net production of 0.30 billion cubic feet of gas with gas sales revenue of 1.8 million.

Zuid-Friesland and Engeleen - Northern is acquiring the working interest and became the operator in the Zuid-Feiesland Production Licence that was awarded to NAM, Total PetroCanada and Dyas in 2010. The licence contains two gas fields, Oppenhuizen and Woudsend, which have a combined estimated Gas initially in Place of 107 billion cubic feet. Northern will develop the fields and be paid all back costs plus an uplift out of cash flow.

Utrecht, Drenthe III and Oosterwolde - Following the mapping of the exploration prospects in 2009 at these licences drilling is now planned. Within the Utrecht licence, a P50 gross prospective resource potential for the Meerkerk South and Everdingen South prospects is 106.2 billion cubic feet. The Drenthe III licence has 123.11 billion cubic feet of P50 gross prospective resource in the Lhee and Boterveen prospects. Mapping of the Oosterwold exploration licence, which lies adjacent to Drenthe III, has identified a low risk exploration prospect with the potential for a significant volume of gas. Wells are planned to be drilled in these licence areas in 2012 with Energie Beheer Nederlandse B.V. who will be the partner on these three exploration licences.

UK

The Company has 2 producing oil fields along with 12 onshore exploration licences and 1 offshore application in the UK. 2P reserves total 6.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (100% oil).

A 10% stake in the Horndean oil field in the Weald Basin in Southern England was acquired for 200,000 in 2003. This basin contains ten oil fields where the Company has interests in the Horndean and Avington fields. Since it was acquired, the Horndean field has had consistent production which is a characteristic of fields in this basin.

In the UK, Northern has little opportunity for expansion and so has contracted Envoi to sell two Northern subsidiaries which have 6.82 million of 2P reserves and 13 barrel of oil per day production. Such a move would leave within the Company exploration block PEDJ - 256/155 Havant along with existing discoveries at PEDL - 126 Markwells Wood, PEDL- 233 Baxters Copse and PEDL - 125 Hedge End.

At the time the interim results were announced the board reported that the sale of the non- core UK assets would only take place at a price which reflects the RPS valuation. At the present time such a deal does not seem to be on the table. These are attractive assets whose value is underpinned by the RPS report and to improve shareholder value Northern will now go ahead and drill. Already the drilling sites at both Havant and Markwells Wood have been built and an agreement is expected to be signed soon with the rig contractor.

Guyane

Northern has made a small investment with a large upside potential in French Guyane.

Tullow is the operator with a 39.5% interest in this play and following that company's exploration success in offshore Ghana, Shell and Total have joined the joint project taking a 33% and 25% stake respectively. The Company has a 50% stake in Northpet Investments Limited which has a 1.25% beneficial interest. Large 3D seismic survey is being processed over the eastern slope leads with the targets being on the shelf-edge which are seen to be similar to those targets that have proved to be successful for Tullow at the Jubilee Field in offshore Ghana. Tullow is planning to drill a well in the first quarter of 2011. There is also an additional billion barrel potential in the giant Matamata prospect supported by further modelling of the basin.

Spain

Ascent Resources acquired part of the producing Ayoluengo oilfield in onshore Spain from Northern in which the Company retains a 1.25% royalty interest in three Spanish licences. Although the oil field is owned by Ascent Resources it is operated by Leni Gas and Oil who are seeking to locate potential satellite discoveries.

Reserves

Reserves (30 December 2009) 70.84 million barrels of oil and 185.85 billion cubic feet of gas which equates to 102.88 million barrels of oil equivalent

Netherlands 10.66 million barrels of oil, 185.85 billion cubic feet of gas or 42.70 million barrels of oil equivalent

United Kingdom 7.02 million barrels of oil equivalent

Italy 53.16 million barrels of oil equivalent

Strategy for Growth

The board has revised the growth strategy which involves speeding up the development of assets in Italy and The Netherlands. At the AGM in June 2010, the Directors highlighted what was required to implement such a strategy. Firstly realising shareholder value in the non-core UK assets. Secondly, looking at raising reserve debt finance against production from the Netherlands. Lastly to raise 10 million in a placing at 85p which represented a big discount to the share price which seems to have served to undermined the stock. Northern is seen as a low cost oil and gas play operating in countries in low geopolitical risk, but this may be about to change. As scope for expansion in the UK looks limited, there is now space within the corporate structure for a new third leg to the business. It has been pointed out that the management has already scoured most of Europe looking for deals in recent years and so t emptingly it might well be that Northern considering a move into one of the new emerging oil areas of the world, a move that might be well received by investors.

The Company is targeting output of 5,500 boepd by 2015 from existing developments in the Netherlands with approximately 800 boepd from the current producing fields (ie Waalwijk, P12, Geesburg 1 and Grolloo), 2,300 boepd from the proven gas reserves that are currently being developed at Brakel, Wijk en Aalburg and the Geesbrug in fill plus 2,300 boepd from the proven oil fields at Ottoland and Papekop which are under development. It would seem that the planned investment to accelerate bringing production assets on stream could allow the 5,500 boepd by 2015 target to be met.

Looking ahead, after a rather quiet spell it looks as though the newsflow should be improving. A farmout deal is expected to be agreed soon on the La Tosca 44bcf prospect in the Longastrino permit in the Po Valley in Italy ahead of drilling in 2011. The cash raised recently will allow not only the seismic reprocessing across The Netherlands portfolio; but also fund the testing and hydraulic fracturing of the Carboniferous at Tiendeveen which is timetabled for later this year or early 2011 as well as the drilling of Ottoland North prospect in late 2011 or early 2012. Added to the drilling of further well on Oosterwolde and Utrecht are planned for 2012. Whilst the drilling of an exploration well offshore Guyane where Northern is participating alongside Tullow, Shell and Total has a spud date of the first quarter of 2011.

Northern has done well to gain such an impressive portfolio of acreage offshore Italy. Already the most risky licences have been derisked with the farmout deal first with Shell on the Company's acreage off-shore Sicily; the plan is to attract farmin partners to the three other core areas in the Sicily Channel Basins, the Durres Basin and the Crotone Basin. Such a move will allow the first work on these licence areas at little cost to Northern. First drilling on the offshore Italy licences is expected to begin as early as 2012 and any success could have a transformational effect on the Company and its share price.

Risks and Opportunities

Risks

Limited focus on exploration - Northern is involved in oil and gas exploration in the Netherlands, Italy, UK and Guyane; however post the disposal of the non-core UK assets it expected that a third leg maybe added which would take the Company outside of Europe and broaden the exploration focus.

Geological risk - There are the obvious geological risks inherent in the oil and gas industry however Northern's partners in their various licences include some well-known large companies in the industry which lowers the risk as these are competent third parties with better insight into assets.

Italian offshore oil ban - The legislation prohibiting drilling within 5 kilometres of the Italian shoreline and 12 kilometres protected coastal areas, has probably undermined the share price. However, it must be pointed out that most of Northern's projects lie outside the exclusion zone and so the Company is not materially affected by this law.

Past project delays - There still seems to be some negative sentiment that stems from delays in gas projects in the Netherlands in past. Some brokers had pencilled in large improvements in revenue and profitability; and in hindsight Northern could probably have managed down these expectations better. It would seem that the management has learnt from previous mistakes and now promises less and delivers more.

Onshore drilling in the UK - The British Isles represent quite a small land mass that is quite heavily populated and there substantial public opposition to drilling onshore in the UK. For all these reasons, Northern does not have much in the way of expansion opportunities in the UK but there are attractive assets and to improve shareholder value two sites are to be drilled.

Opportunities

Operates in stable countries- The Company operates in countries in Europe by and large which have low geopolitical risk

Quality of partners - Northern is involved with a long list of major industry partners which includes: Shell, Total, Tullow, Petro-Canada and Star Energy. It does speak volumes that its partners Shell have allowed the Company to operate Shell-funded seismic surveys in offshore Italy.

Growing production - The board has its sights firmly set on a target producing 5,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) production target in 2015. Certainly the work over the previous years has now put Northern on a firm footing with current production of 1,200 boepd which is expected to climb to 2,250 boepd in early 2011.

Growth in reserves - During the past decade, Northern has grown substantially from gaining high quality oil and gas prospects without paying high entry costs. The real focus has been on low priced assets where value can be added at a relatively low cost. At the heart of the strategy is been awarded or acquiring valuable licences which is followed by the Company undertaking the necessary geological, geophysical and engineering work to dramatically add value before inviting larger players to farmin into the projects at an exploration or development stage.

Portfolio of licences - The Company has assembled a growing portfolio of licences in highly prospective areas. In Italy alone, Northern has acquired a significant number of key licences in prospective areas which total a net 14,710 square kilometres.

Drilling programme - Northern has an active drilling programme the Longastrino permit in Italy to be drilled in 2011, the testing and hydraulic fracturing at Tindeveen in late 2010 or early 2011 with drilling of three wells (Geesbrug-2, Papekop-2 and North Ottoland) in second half 2011/ first quarter 2012, Tullow setting to drill an exploration well offshore Guyane in the first quarter 2011. Offshore drilling in Italy on the Company's licences could begin as early as 2012.




Management

Non-Executive Chairman - Richard Latham - Following the commencement of his career in the City as an Investment Manager, Latham went onto work for more than twenty six years with companies in the upstream oil and gas industry. Formerly, he was Deputy Chairman of Aberdeen Petroleum Plc, Chairman and Managing Director of Claremont Oil and Gas Limited as well as being a Non-Executive Director of Atlantis Resources Limited. Latham gained and MBA from Cranfield and is at present the Non-Executive Chairman of Strategic Natural Resources Plc. He was appointed Non-Executive Chairman of Northern Petroleum in 1999.

Managing Director - Derek Musgrove - After working in senior managerial or board positions with RTZ Oil & Gas Limited, Candecca Resources Plc, Plascom Plc, Anglo Scandinavian Petroleum Plc and Bass Resources Limited, Musgrove was appointed Managing Director in 1999. He was also a consultant to a number of oil and gas companies particularly in the area of new project management and trading of oil and gas properties, as well as pursuing personal interests in the natural resources sector.

Finance Director - Chris Foss - Foss is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. Between 1998 to 2003, he held a number of financial positions and acted as consultant to the energy-related subsidiaries of GE Capital Corporation, Bechtel Group Inc, United Technologies Corporation and Centrica Plc. Since early 2003, Foss was the Group Financial Controller and Company Secretary, and was appointed Finance Director in 2005. He was also the Finance Director of PLUS-quoted ATI Oil Plc from 2004 until it was acquired by Northern Petroleum.

Exploration and Technical Director - Graham Heard - In all, Heard has more than thirty five years' experience as a petroleum geologist and started his career with Arco before moving on and gaining extensive international experience with independents Siebens Oil and Quintana Petroleum. He subsequently held a number of executive positions with Sovereign Oil & Gas Plc, Neste Production Limited and Sands Oil & Gas Plc. Heard was appointed Exploration and Technical Director in 2007 after having served as the Company's Exploration Manager for more than four years.

Non-Executive Director - Jeremy White - White is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales and has worked in the oil industry for more than twenty five years and was the UK Group Tax Controller of PetroFina's UK operations, before joining Northern Petroleum where he served as Finance Director until 2005.

Non-Executive Director - Anthony Brewer - A City man with over forty years' experience of fund management and broking, in investment analysis, institutional sales and corporate finance, Brewer has a specialist knowledge of the oil and gas sector. He was appointed a Non-Executive Director in 2006.


Significant shareholders

Shareholder
Number of shares
Holding (%)

Barry Lonsdale (Italy-based British geologist) *1
6,029,661
6.56

The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc *1
5,300,054
5.77

TD Waterhouse Nominees (Europe) Limited
5,045,253
5.49

The Bank of New York (Nominees) Limited
4,611,413
5.02

ABN AMRO Bank NV London Branch
4,440,112
4.83

Barclays Share Nominees Limited
4,310,839
4.69

Chase Nominees Limited
4,215,568
4.59

Majedie Asset Management Limited
3,689,100
4.01

L R Nominees Limited
3,390,018
3.69

HSDL Nominees Limited
2,806,561
3.05

Cheviot Capital Nominees Limited
2,557,500
2.78

Nortrust Nominees Limited
2,494,720
2.71

Hugh and Kate Sloane
2,400,000
2.61

Cavendish Asset Management Limited
2,240,900
2.44


*1 - there might be some double counting in these holdings

Source: Northern Petroleum website

Financial Results

Northern is beginning to benefit from a strong growth in production in the Netherlands. Interim results announced on 29th September 2010 showed that revenue climbed by 150% to 7.0 million in the six months to 30 June 2010 as production volumes grew to 214,000 boe; this was despite production being restricted by the annual maintain programmes at both Grolloo and Geesburg in the second quarter.

The improvement in revenue allowed the pre-tax profit to grow to 2.29 million against a loss of 0.53 million in the first half of the previous year. Earnings per share came out at 1.1 cents compared to a loss of 0.1 cents at the interim stage in 2009. New gas production from Brakel which came on stream in late September 2010 and Wijk an Aalburg should help to improve revenues and cash flow substantially which will also receive a further boost from an improved gas price as since August the Company has achieved a selling price in excess of 5.60 per mcf.

At the time the interim results were announced Richard Latham, the Chairman pointed out that "The Board is committed to continue to delivering greater production and increase asset value within the strategy of operating in areas of low risk and obtaining and developing concentrated licence positions gaining high quality prospects without paying high entry costs. It is determined to accelerate growth and delivery of improved value for shareholders. I feel that Northern's strong asset base has, and will continue to be, steadily transformed into production and asset sales income."

Year to 31 December
'000
2009 2008 2007
Revenue 5,084 6,954 5,931
Gross profit 1,482 2,825 676
(Loss)/profit for the year (2,151) 9,914 20,957
Profit on disposal of tangible assets - 8,934 28,843
(Loss)/profit for the year adjusted for asset sales (2,151) 971 (7,886)
Basic(loss)/earnings per share (2.9) cents 14.1 cents 29.7 cents

Valuation and Conclusion

Northern offers investors the twin attractions of the upside potential that stems from being involved in the drilling of exploratory wells over a tremendous acreage in offshore Italy but backed by sustained well-planned growth in oil and gas production from The Netherlands. We have sought to value the Company's production and reserves by peer group analysis. Firstly, the relationship between Enterprise Value and 2P reserves has been explored, the results of which are shown in the table below; which clearly shows that Northern seems to be attracting a low valuation per 2P reserves well below the median ( 10.31)and the mean ( 10.83).

Company Code EV m 2P reserves
mmboe
EV/2P
/boe
Area of operations
Ascent Resources AST 33.9 - Hungary, Slovenia, Italy & the Netherlands
Aurelian Oil & Gas AUL 197.9 542.00 0.37 Romania, Bulgaria & Poland
Dana Petroleum DNX 2,299.0 223.00 10.31 North Europe, the Far East, Africa and Russia.
Egdon Resources EDR 15.7 1.01 15.55 Offshore UK and France.
Europa Oil & Gas EOG 18.6 0.80 23.25 UK, France, Romania, Poland and Egypt
Faroe Petroleum FPM 369.8 - - Faroe Islands & West of Shetlands
Gulfsands Petroleum GKP 1,060.4 50.7 20.92 Kurdistan and Algeria
Leni Gas & Oil LGO 20.6 4.2 4.90 US Gulf of Mexico, Spain, Trinidad, Malta & Hungary
Northern Petroleum NOP 65.9 102.88 0.64 Netherlands, Italy, UK and Guyane
Petroceltic International PCI 226.0 - - Algeria, Tunisia,
and Italy.

Providence Resources PVR 175.1 17.4 10.06 Ireland, UK, Nigeria, US Gulf of Mexico and Indonesia.
Stratic Energy Corporation SE. 165.8 14.44 11.48 North Sea, Italy and Black Sea (Turkey)


Secondly, the ratio between the Enterprise Value and sales analysed. Historic figures for 2009 were used with the consensus figure of analysts' forecast for 2010 and 2011 employed for the same companies; whilst using our own estimates for Northern.


Company EV m EV/2009 sales A EV/2010 sales E EV2011/sales E Area of operations
Ascent Resources 33.9 37.6 NA NA Hungary, Slovenia, Italy, Switzerland & the Netherlands
Aurelian Oil & Gas 197.9 66.4 78.5 33.3 Romania, Bulgaria & Poland
Dana Petroleum 2,299.0 5.8 4.0 3.4 North Europe, the Far East, Africa and Russia.
Egdon Resources 15.7 17.8 11.2 1.6 Offshore UK and France.
Europa Oil & Gas 18.6 6.0 NA NA UK, France, Romania, Poland and Egypt
Faroe Petroleum 369.8 52.8 23.2 32.1 Faroe Islands & West of Shetlands
Gulfsands Petroleum 1,060.4 0 103.4 39.1 Kurdistan and Algeria
Leni Gas & Oil 20.6 9.7 3.4 0.5 US Gulf of Mexico, Spain, Trinidad, Malta & Hungary
Northern Petroleum 65.9 14.9 5.8 3.2 Netherlands, Italy, UK and Guyane
Petroceltic International 226.0 1,076.2 1,412.5 1,506.7 Algeria, Tunisia,
and Italy.

Providence Resources 175.1 9.5 NA NA Ireland, UK, Nigeria, US Gulf of Mexico and Indonesia.
Stratic Energy Corporation 165.8 9.9 10.1 7.2 North Sea, Italy and Black Sea (Turkey)

This analysis gave the average Enterprise Value to sales ratio (the very high figures for Petroceltic were excluded from this analysis) of 23.04 in 2009, 29.95 in 2010 and 15.05 in 2011. Northern by comparison trades at an 80% and 78% discount to the average for the years 2010 and 2011 respectively.


Certainly corporate comparisons suggest that the share price on Northern seems substantially well-undervalued by either yardstick. Looking at the Enterprise Value to Sales ratios if Northern was to catch up a little on its peer group and gain a rating of say between 5 to 5.5 for EV2011/sales (which is half way between Northern's current ratio and that of Stratic Energy Corporation) would generate an Enterprise Value of 108m which equates to a market capitalisation of 123m and gives the stock an initial target price on the stock of 134p.


It has to be pointed out that this target price has been calculated not only using ratings that are less generous to those being awarded to others within the sector. In this light our price target has to be viewed as being fairly conservative. We reinitiate our coverage, at 88.75p, with a stance of strong buy and a 134p price target.


Forecast table


Year to 30 December Sales
( m)
Pre-tax Profit
( m)
Earnings per share (cents) Price Earnings Ratio Dividend (p) Yield (%)
2008A 6.95 11.56 14.10 7.2 0 0.0
2009A 5.08 (3.12) (2.90) - 0 0.0
2010E 13.00 2.70 0.7 145.8 0 0.0
2011E 23.50 10.00 4.2 24.3 0 0.0

Source: Growth Equities & Company Research

much higher volume today buyers 6:1 yet hardly moves upwards ???

Never does....been in for years...still at a loss....never gets going nowadays....

nice rise today perhaps getting past the 1 mark would be a start

Tipped by GS today

'Northern Petroleum started with buy rating at Goldman Sachs, price target 189p'

seems to have some recent momentum heading toward 120p short term

At long last it's taken off....

thought might be a bit of profit taking 120p by the end of the day then plenty of orders on L2 very few sellers must be thinking that GS know their stuff ??

NOP is at a 6-month high breakout. NOP is about to hit a Golden Cross. Feel free to copy this to other NOP BB's.

http://i55.tinypic.com/2rz9ht1.jpg

http://i53.tinypic.com/14t80bd.jpg

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp


Report Date: 24 June 2010
Northern Petroleum has evolved from a small UK based oil exploration and development
company to a significant operator with a balanced risk exposure across 56 licences including
potential high value aggregate billion barrel targets in Italy. We consider Northern Petroleum
undervalued compared to peers on an existing P1 reserve based valuation where it is worth
around 129p* alone (P2 would suggest considerably more) and see significant scope for re‐rating
as it moves to the next stage of its development as a mid‐tier operator. The investment can be
viewed as something of a two way bet, with both exploration and development upside. We rate
Northern Petroleum as high amongst the best oil and gas situations on offer in the AIM market.


Increasing the production profile: While the exploration activities are less quantifiable, the
company has a very credible plan for achieving major production uplifts from just under 2,000
boepd where they now reside to over 8,000 boepd by 2015 (>3,000 boepd by the end of 2012).
Unsurprisingly this will have a significant impact on cashflows. In terms of top‐line revenue a
crude calculation would suggest revenues of 5.1mn last year could raise over 18x to around
97m. Of course these plans while feasible are ambitious and subject to risk. However, if we
were to look closer out to 2012 where production should be well over 2,500 boepd, this should
produce somewhere in the region of >30m in a full year.

Extensive portfolio contains: Northern Petroleum has 7m boe in the UK (2 producing fields; 12
onshore exploration licences/1 offshore); The Netherlands 42.7m boe; 6 onshore production
licences/1 offshore; 3 onshore exploration licences; 4 producing gas fields). Italy 53.2mbbl (5
onshore exploration licences/21 offshore; 6 offshore applications); Guyane (1.25% interest in
Tullow/Shell offshore exploration).

The Netherlands should generate the bulk of production uplifts for the next few years. The
company currently produces around 1.2k boepd from 5 fields which is set to increases to c.2k
boepd by the end of this year and to >5k by 2015. Proven undeveloped oil and gas will comprise
the totality of the production uplift which significantly reduces the risk profile in our view.

Italy is the prize: Whilst the Netherlands should continue to deliver strong progress and the UK
value which can be recycled into development activities it is Italy (the second part of the two way
bet) which perhaps offers the greatest potential. The company is chasing elephants in its
offshore Italy exploitation targets. For example in the Adriatic, an independent report places a
mean barrels of oil in place potential (so very early stage and currently subject to a high degree
of risk) at 3bn barrels of oil over six prospects in only 2 of 7 licences.

Shell farm out: Shell has farmed into 6 offshore licences West of Sicily with the option of drilling
and testing an exploration well next year. 1,520 km2 of 3D seismic is currently being processed.
Valuation: We employ a rudimentary EV/barrel methodology for valuation (the group had no debt
as at the end of FY 2009) and arrive at a price target of 207p per share (details following page).

Companies estimate of NPV per share (undiluted) given a total NPV of 103m (for P1 only)/P2 figure is 749.2m or 940p

http://www.hbmarkets.com/assets/0/169/171/6500fcf6-6f9b-4dfe-b03c-537ce2fe2676.pdf


Mon, 8th Nov 2010 08:23
Goldman Sachs starts Northern Petroleum with buy rating and price target of 189P
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareNews.asp?shareprice=NOP&ArticleCode=vvxj8fmpjh3ihxr&ArticleHeadline=BRIEFRESEARCH_ALERTGoldman_Sachs_starts_Northern_Petroleum_PA_Resources_with_buy

Dec 14, 2010 at 08:31
Shore Capital has a hold for Beazley, a sell for Capita, buys for Bunzl and Go-Ahead Group, a hold for NWF and reiterates buy for Northern Petroleum
http://83.217.99.68/new-model-adviser/broker-roundup-deutsche-bank-positive-on-barclays/a457667

14th August 2010
The July Stocks and Markets Review from GE&CR on UK-Analyst.com ( http://gecr.co.uk/ )
Buy with a 314p target price.
http://uk-analyst.com/shop/page-advice/action-advertorial.show/id-130006995

Another broker BUY rec. Matrix this time, at 170p target.
http://www.igmarkets.co.uk/content/files/ukratings_21dec_igmam.pdf

Buy-if yesterday and today
http://www.britishbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=nop

100% buy
http://www.insidestocks.com/texpert.asp?sym=NOP.LS&code=BTTEN


Plenty to raise the SP in 2011
NOPs Netherlands focus now switches to developing the Papekop and Ottoland oil fields and further development drilling at Geesbrug. A production test of the Ottoland well, also on the Andel III licence, is on schedule for 2011. Drilling and testing of a new development well on the Papekop field is also due in 2011. A further well is also due to be drilled in 2011 on the significant Geesbrug gas field as NOP targets additional production from its 23.8mmboe net 2P reserves. Geesbrug represents 56% of NOPs current Netherlands 2P reserves.
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/

http://www.northpet.com/news/update-/

Hit oil down in Sussex I think.....now wouldn't it be strange if this turns out to be an excellent strike...might have hit 20 million barrels plus .....

Even if this is not commercial.....no stopping this now......150p plus is a strong possibility...at long last the market is recognising this company's potential.....

My mistake,... it could be 35 million barrels of oil and the upside is more than 60 million.....this could be fantastic for NOP....who have a 50% share....

UK
Required field, it might be good, but it's a side-show drilling IMHO. I think they were forced to drill or lose their chance.It will be a fairly low-grade oil, as there are other wells in this area(of the UK); not massive, but providing cash-flow. . At least some -return, if the core-samples prove worthwhile (prob.Jan2011). Your "barrels" look somewhat toppy, but what do I know?
Europe
The other news was less-good, IMHO. re the Dutch Gas site....Hope, but don't hold breath.

Northern Drilling Well in West Sussex

12.11.10
Northern Petroleum Plc (AIM:NOP), is shortly to commence drilling the Markwells Wood 1 well to test a target with a mean potential independently assessed at 35.0 million barrels of oil in place, with an upside potential of 61.4 million barrels with a ten percent probability. The drilling equipment is currently moving onto the site.

The location is between the Horndean and Singleton producing oil fields and is assessed to be an extension of the former. The final measured depth will be 6009 ft (1831m) at a true vertical depth of 4528 ft (1380m). Electric logs will be run to evaluate their well potential.

http://www.northpet.com/news/detail/2010/11/northern-drilling-well-in-west-sussex

hangon, where is your proof that it will be a fairly low grade oil? The grade of oil has nothing to do with the size of the field???

According to NOP the oil is worth the same as the current Brent Crude. Just look at their reserves calculations.

Horndean and Singleton are producing oil fields, they are selling this oil you know, not giving it away!!

Try putting some verifiable facts in your deramping, just so we can see if you know anything other than how to deramp ;)

Here is my contribution, table 5 page 5
http://www.northpet.com/assets/uploads/assets/uk-reserves-and-markwells-wood-summaries.pdf

hangon,

"The Havant exploration well is to be drilled in 2010 and could, if successful and with the requisite consents, be brought on stream rapidly. The oil quality in this basin is excellent."

http://www.northpet.com/operations/united-kingdom/

VAST oil reserves worth millions of pounds are believed to lie beneath one of Britain's biggest housing estates.

Oil giant Northern Petroleum Ltd claims the sprawling estate at Havant, Hants, is a potential oasis of "black gold".

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2068406.ece

Read the parts on Horndean, Horndean East PEDL126

http://www.envoi.co.uk/P182Northern(UKWealdAssetPackage)Synopsis.pdf

The well that hit oil today has been drilled as a producer well so it is instant cash generation if it can produce. It would also increase the value of any possible sale of the UK assets.

BUY CONFIRMED

Today a Long White Candlestick was formed. This shows that the prices advanced significantly from open to close during the day under strong buying pressure.

Patience pays off. The market wavered a bit but finally confirmed the recent bullish formation. The dose of the previous day was not enough for a confirmation but today it is. The market opened with a gap-up and the days activity resulted in a close higher than the open. This is a valid confirmation criterion. The market seems ready for a new bullish move.

The significant failure of the previous SELL signal is unfortunately confirmed too. Our shot went away this time. It is a fact that such signal failures are more unlikely for higher rated stocks, but it is not possible to deal with all the vagaries of the stock market. The signal system, however, continues to do an excellent job in the overall, despite such failures. This can be seen easily with a quick glance to the signal history table.

We hope that you bought this stock and still have the chance to profit from the later phase of the bullish attack. Today you were supposed to watch the upward gap in the opening, wait a bit, feel the bullish tendency of the market making sure that prices stay over the opening price and then go long. Your benchmark was the opening price of the upward gap.

If you bought, continue to hold this stock until the confirmation of the next SELL-IF signal. You are on relatively safe grounds as long as the future prices continue to trade above the benchmark price and if an emergency warning is not issued. What to do if you did not buy? Maybe, you did not have time to follow the session or you simply delegated the delicate job of confirmation to us. Well it is a bit late, but not too late. You may still find suitable prices for buying in the following sessions and still profit in case of a sustained bullish move.

The market is currently cold for short-sellers. Avoid any short sales and cover the short positions immediately if there are any. We erred significantly on the short side last time, but we are sure that you may easily cover your losses (if any) by basing your future trades on our signal system.

http://www.britishbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=nop

NOP hoping Tullow hit black gold in Feb 2011. What SP if this comes off?

French Guiana
A number of Jubilee-type leads have been identified in the south-eastern part of the block and the acquisition of a large 3D seismic program (2,500 sq km) was completed in early February 2010. Processing and interpretation of this dataset is ongoing and planning for the first well on the material Zaedyus prospect is continuing, with a target spud date of February 2011.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=97861


Country French Guiana
Block Guyane Maritime
Prospect Zaedyus
Gross upside* 700 mmbo

http://files.the-group.net/library/tullow/presspack/pdfs/tullow_2009fypresentation.pdf


Northern having a net beneficial 1.25% interest.
http://www.northpet.com/news/detail/2010/12/update-


700mmbo @ 1.25% to NOP is 8.75mmbo, currently $90 per barrel. Drilling in Feb 2011

Tullow drilling oil in Feb, Orca drilling gas in Q2.

The La Tosca prospect is estimated to contain 45 Bcf of gross mean prospective
resource with an upside of 85 Bcf of 99.5% methane gas. Work is currently in progress to secure a site from which to drill the La Tosca-1 well, scheduled for Q2 2011.
http://www.orcaexploration.com/operations_Italy_Longastrino.asp

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=45559119

17:45, Monday 27 December 2010

Brent crude for February delivery hit $94.52 in morning trading its highest level since the height of the banking crisis in October 2008 before profit takers moved in. Brent finished 15 cents higher at $93.92. Although UK markets were closed, Brent crude contracts can still be traded electronically.

Oil prices are expected to rise steadily next year, with many analysts forecasting the price could cross the psychologically important $100 a barrel mark.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - news) , Morgan Stanley (DWDF.EX - news) , Bank of America Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan Chase have all said they expect oil to move above $100 in 2011, with some raising the possibility that it could happen earlier in the year than many feared.

The key risk is that we are being too cautious and that the threat of $100 per barrel oil that is implicit in our fourth quarter 2011 oil forecast arrives sooner than we expect driven by not only a weak dollar, but also by rampant Chinese and emerging market demand, Lawrence Eagles, an energy analyst at JP Morgan, said in a recent report.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/World-markets-fall-oil-price-tele-3154817514.html

$100 a barrel for 6Bn++ barrels is rather a lot more than NOP is valued at today.

NOP Italy deatils
http://www.northpet.com/operations/italy/


Way more detail in this article though.

In the Sicily Channel, the focus was over the G.R.17.NP., G.R.18.NP, and G.R.19.NP permits. Regional modeling suggests the Lower Tertiary reservoirs are the most promising targets, with the Cretaceous containing the primary source rock. Northerns geologists have identified several billion barrel-plus prospects developed as drape features over underlying thrust anticlines.

Another new 200 km (124 mi) 2D survey over the C.R147.NP permit in the Straits of Sicily, again on the median line, confirmed two significant prospects with potential reserves of 400 MMbbl and 200 MMbbl.

It also estimates the potential oil in place in six other drilling prospects identified by Enterprise on the two licenses at 1.26 to 6 Bbbl.

There could be further targets in three adjacent offshore licenses, for which Northern holds preliminary awards. According to Northerns geologists, the southern Adriatic is under-explored, despite most of the wells to date being discoveries. There are analogies to Mexicos prolific Golden Lane and Poza Rica trend, which includes the multi-billion barrel Poza Rica field.

http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/article-display/324175/articles/offshore/volume-68/issue-3/special-report-italy/independents-leading-exploration-revival-off-southern-italy.html

Option to get in before the spudding here. 1Bn+ barrels in Europe is an amazing potential discovery. NOP just 114.95m today.

Sicily drill decision imminent


Published: Dec 27, 2010
Offshore staff

LONDON -- Northern Petroleum and its partner Shell Italia will decide before end-March whether to drill in their Thrust and Fold Belt permits offshore Sicily.

Permits CR146 has a prospect with estimated resources of 1 Bbbl-plus.

Northern adds that the CR147 permit has been made more attractive by ADX Energys recent announcement of the Lambouka in nearby Tunisian waters.

The farm-out process for both permits continues.

12/28/2010
http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/article-display/3801899726/articles/offshore/drilling-completion/north-sea-northwest-europe-2/2010/12/sicily-drill_decision.html

The Golden Cross is here, as the 50EMA just crossed the rising 200EMA.

200 trade just went through. Here is a theory.

"If you believe in MM signals, 200 shares means "I need shares badly,but do not take the stock down."

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=57812748

Stop loss heaven for the MM's

So the 200 trade(see below) at 14:45 was a signal that someone was accumulating to fill an order, but keeping the SP supported as per the 200 signal was not filling the order so following the 300 trade(see below) at 15:52 they dropped the SP and hit a load of stop losses to try and fill the order. Not rocket science is it.

MM SIGNALS

100 > I need shares

200 > I need shares badly but dont take it down to get em

300 > Take the price down to get shares....

400 > Trade it sideways based on Supply and Demand

500 > Gap one way or the other, usually to the direction

of the 500 trade. Sometimes -if in the middle -keep the price right where it is.

A bit disappointing for the sp at close of play....

And the 500, 400 trades earlier in the day?

Guess best to ignore those.

Here we go again with more MM games to fill orders. There is no excuse for this volatility on such low volume. Look at the effect on the ASK of the 600 trade at 8:24:54.

Spread is now getting wider as they drop the BID to hit stop losses but move the ASK up to deter buyers.

Need more buyers but looks like it will have to wait until trading resumes in 2011.

The Golden Cross has happened and the UK oil well results are on the way, so I am confident that the SP will be much higher in a few weeks time.

Maybe 110 today/tomorrow, bottom of the uptrend channel if you look at the chart. Then POP back to 130p+ again as the day trader buys kick in.

Just need the well results and its GAME OVER for the MM's, they know it too, hence why they are creating such high volatility from such tiny volume before the news arrives!

Amazing that every time I add 5k shares to my test buys, the SP goes UP and UP and UP. This shows how valuable the stock really is to the MM's. If you want it, you have to pay a 2.86p premium just to get 80k shares instead of 5k. Meanwhile they bu66er round with the SP to get more stock back into their books before they hike the price back up on the next buy volume increase.

Buy 5000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.13p

Buy 10000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.474p

Buy 15000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.526p

Buy 20000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.552p

Buy 25000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.6043p

Buy 30000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.78p

Buy 35000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.88p

Buy 40000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 119p

Buy 45000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 119.33p

Buy 50000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 119.6p

Buy 55000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 119.87p

Buy 60000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 120.11p

Buy 65000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 120.35p

Buy 70000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 120.59p

Buy 75000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 120.8p

Buy 80000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 120.99p (MAX offered)

Why is it amazing? MMs are obliged to deal in the NMS, anything above and you will likely pay a premium, nothing unusual in that at all.

For what it's worth my observations of dead crosses and golden crosses seem to indicate the SP usually gravitates back to the MAs before continuing the trend.

ptholden, please show me on the chart of the last 3 NOP Golden Crosses exactly where the SP moved back the the MA before moving up, it never did before rising first. If you look back on the charts you will realise that it is now past tense, so the MA's have moved up to meet the price over the following 50 and 200 days, not the other way round.

The SP should not rise on every 5k shares if there is the right amount of stock in the free float, it is absurd to suggest that I should pay a premium on 10,000 shares over 5000, or on 50,000 over 45,000. A premium on 50,000 over 5,000 would be the expected change, then another premium at 100,000.

"In French Guiana interpretation of the newly acquired 3D data set continues with the maturation of several Jubilee type prospects, Tullow stated.

"The first and most exciting of which, Zaedyus, will be drilled in Q1 2011.

Tullows comments are from this mornings comprehensive interim management statement, in which it highlighted that the Jubilee will come on-stream in December to produce 58,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day - the top end of expectations.

First oil production from the Jubilee field is expected early next month and will transform Group production next year.

Jubilees production will ramp up to around 120,000 barrels per day over three to six months.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/22885/wessex-exploration-welcomes-tullow-oil-comments-on-guyane-maritime-license-22885.html



So Zaedyus is similar to Jubilee. Northern have a net beneficial 1.25% interest in Zaedyus.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20101214070000P1197



Therefore, if Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5 to 65% increase on its production today.

Top

My comment re crosses refered to the Market in general, not specifically NOP.

As NOP is a SETsMM stock I suggest if you wish to buy a large qty, use DMA and fill your order through the book. Although probable, MM manipulation is less of an issue with SETs.

Oh and the SP action merely reflects the orders on the book, not necessarily MM activity.

FROM LSE BB

Sebwinder
NOP - simple chartToday 12:41

http://www.screencast.com/users/Sebwinder/folders/Jing/media/cdc9c11d-d975-48b4-8613-ec27abf99f3c


Not only the new trend but a confirmed Golden Cross, with the 50 day average going over the rising 200 day average on both EMA and now SMA, this is one of the most bullish indicators you can get.

Get stuck in!

From Scotty1 on advfn.

7 t1ps for 2011 (Resources)
Today (2010-12-31 10:03:14)
Print this Article 7 t1ps for 2011 (Resources

3.Northern Petroleum (NOP) at 115p valuing it at c106 million. Northern has had a great few months. Not only are its Dutch gas assets coming onstream faster than we had expected but also the cold Northern winter has pushed the gas price ahead sharply. The company will - I predict - flog its UK assets during 2011 for at least 10 million. That would leave it sitting on 40 million of cash. Holland should be generating an annualised profit of 20 million for 2011 and on a 5 multiple (low given the growth potential) it has to be worth 100 million. In Italy I expect that Shell will, before Easter, commit to a huge onshore jv with Northern acreage into which it has farmed in. That - and news of other farm in deals elsewhere across the vast acreage Northern sits on - should tickle the fancy of many. Valuing Northern's Italian reserves at 3 a barrel (very mean indeed) they add 150 million to a s-o-t-p valuation. And there is the wild card of Guyane where Northern has a tiny stake in a huge block where there will be drilling this year. Call that a bonus ( although it could be a 7 figure bonus). Even without the bonus the s-o-t-p valuation is 290 million or 318p per share. With upside from a) sentiment if (I think when) oil prices surge, Italy when Shell commits, Guyane and a re-rating of Holland as output ( and gas prices) surge this is a share which could almost treble in 2011. It is my top oil pick and although well up on our original 13.75p tip price, at 115p Northern is a strong buy at up to 145p with a 350p target. This stock is held in the Growth Fund not the Gold Fund for a rather obvious reason.

Max buy yesterday 80,000 shares, max buy today 25,000 shares. Free float running low.

Tip for 2011 from The Times.

Tempus Tips for 2011

* BHP Billiton, BG, Northern Petroleum, Catlin Group, Tullett Prebon, Intermediate Capital Group, Cookson Group, Capita, F&C Asset Management and e2v technologies.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/new-year-papers-estonia-joins-crisis-hit-euro-club-others-wary-business-money-and-tips/a460082/full

Goldman Sachs Note from November 2010 where they initiated coverage with a 189p target, with the initial one prospect(of six if I remember corretcly) offshore Italy offering 500% upside potential on that. Italy drilling decision has to be made by Shell by end of March. Goldman Sachs have put Q3 2011 as the drilling date, therefore NOP could be 189p+500% = 9.45 in 2011.

Source of opportunity
Northern Petroleum offers, in our view, an attractive combination of strong core value in the Netherlands, and the possibility for high-impact exploration in the longer term. We believe that the companys producing and discovered gas assets in the Netherlands and other core value gives 93% upside to the current share price,
before accounting for liquidity adjustments, and that the stock is therefore inexpensive. There are exploration catalysts in the Netherlands too, which we believe could add 10% to our valuation over the next 2-3 years. The real potential in our view, however, lies in the companys assets in Italy where it holds a number of offshore exploration licences with substantial potential. West of Sicily, the company has brought in Shell as a partner which gives a degree of credibility to the play, while in the South Adriatic Sea the company currently is 100% owner. We are cautious on the ability to monetize oil resources in Italy, noting the difficulties that companies have had in sanctioning assets such as Tempa Rossa and give the companys Italian oil assets a 75% political risking on top of the required geological risking. (We note that the company is confident the recent ban on drilling in Italian waters within five nautical miles of the coast should have limited or no effect on its prospects as they are further offshore than the areas the ban impacts.) In the event that exploration is successful, and the resource can be monetized, the potential is vast: success for one of the companys assets in the West of Sicily would add almost 500% to our valuation. The companys 1.25% stake in Tullows exploration block in Guyana is also of potential interest, despite the stake being small, as it offers large volumes and the potential for follow-on drilling in the event of success. We initiate coverage of the company with a Buy rating and a price target of 189p.

Catalyst
Continued growth from the companys assets in the Netherlands is a relatively low risk catalyst. We expect the prospect in Guyana to be drilled in the coming months. We do not expect significant activity in Italy in the near term, but the approach of drilling in the country should also help share price performance.

Valuation
Our 12-month SOTP price target is calculated using a US$85/bl assumed oil price. We include risked value for two prospects in the West of Sicily licence in Italy but apply a 75% political risking on top of geological risk, and also apply a 50% discount to these catalysts as we expect them to be drilled later than 12 months from now.

Key risks
Key downside risks to our view and target price are a weakening of the European gas price, cost overruns and delays in the development of the companys assets in the Netherlands or delays in exploration and sanctioning activities in Europe.

Page 250
http://www.mediafire.com/?i5bdmxxpmo6tm16

This applies to all oil companies, but just from NOP's view it means greater revenues in 2011, which leads to an increased valuation as the market continually prices in the oil price rise. Golman Sachs valuation is 189p based on $85 a barrel, yet 2011 looks to have an average near 25% higher than that, suggesting the NOP valuation for 2011 should be 25% higher at 236p

"The forecasts for oil, like the outlook for the US economy, are almost universally positive. A double digit oil price is a thing of 2010, in 2011 expectations are centering on a price closer to $110, probably higher. Already weve seen comments out of the OPEC that the global economy can cope with an oil price of $100, so dont be surprised if the oil cartel begins to increase its price target."

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Gold-oil-copper-silver-iron-ore-commodities-metals-pd20101231-CMTTN?OpenDocument

Excluding the huge 945p potential of Italy I have done a couple of charts to show how long it should take to get to 2 per share, with and without the Golden Cross effect. The difference is that without the Golden Cross effect the stock should take 6 months longer to reach 2. This is why the Golden Cross is such an important very bullish indicator.

P.S. The MA's I have used are 50EMA and 200EMA. The 50SMA has also now crossed above the rising 200SMA as a confirmation of the Golden Cross.

Interview with Gazprom Chief Alexei Miller

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,737443,00.html

Northern Petroleum - Times tip of the year
January 03, 2011

Amid a dull selection of blue chips published today Martin "Taliban" Waller has picked Northern Petroleum as one of his ten tips of the year for The Times Tempus column. Normally such an endorsement would be a good sell signal but on this occassion I am at one with Waller - Northern was one of my 7 resource tips of the year for 2011. At 109p the t1ps Growth Fund ( which owns shed loads already) is likely to be buying more next week. Target price 350p.

Tom Winnifrith

http://www.jpjshare.com/content/News/11-01-03/Northern_Petroleum_-_Times_tip_of_the_year.aspx

Martin Waller is Deputy City Editor at The Times

"when the forecast net production of over 2,250 barrels of oil a day once Wijk en Aalburg is on-stream is achieved, we will have reached a good base for advancing overall growth of the group."
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/21431/northern-petroleum-starts-production-at-third-netherlands-field-21431.html

Well that would be right now then wouldn't it!

"Northern announces that production has started from the at Wijk en Aalburg gas field in The Netherlands. The forecasted contracted gross gas sales volume from the Wijk en Aalburg field is 150,000 normal cubic meters per day (5.6 million standard cubic feet per day or 963 barrels of oil equivalence per day (boepd), 433 boepd net to Northern), which brings Northerns daily production capacity to the higher end of our forecasted 2200 - 2300 boepd."
http://www.northpet.com/news/detail/2010/12/fourth-new-netherlands-gas-field-put-into-production


So NOP is now at "a good base for advancing overall growth of the group"

Going well today, up 10p, more to come methinks ;)

Current shareprice seems way under priced compared to analyst forcasts. 2 by Christmas ?

robnickson, your target is a bit low?

Here is how I think it will pan out. I am referring to recent posts on here so go back and look if you want more info on any of the points:

Current SP should be 196p according to Goldman Sachs, this is at $85 a barrel. The consensus expected 2011 average for oil is around 25% higher, which would lead to an increased valuation on NOP to 235p
t1ps.com have a 'buy up to 145p with a 350p target' recommendation
NOP is a 'Tip for 2011' from The Times
3 brokers are listed on Digital Look, all have 'strong buy' for NOP
Matrix analysts have a 170p target
http://gecr.co.uk/ have a 314p target

Results from MW1 should be in within a week or two, if they hit 35m to 60m barrels and a producer it will be seen as big news for NOP.

Tullow are drilling Guyana in Q1. The oilfield is expected to be similar to the nearby Jubilee field which is running at 58,000 bpd rising soon to 120,000 bpd. If Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5% to 65% increase on its production today. See post 90.

Based upon the above the NOP SP should easily pass 2 by the end of Q1.

Also by the end of Q1 Shell Italia MUST make a decision on drilling the Thrust and Fold belt offshore Italy, targeting 1Bn+ barrels of oil. Goldman Sachs have pencilled in Q3 2011 for the drilling.

Based on Shell Italia going ahead with drilling in Q3 2011, the SP should rise rapidly on the announcement and continue rising as the date nears for the spudding in Q3.

Goldman Sachs have valued a successful oil strike on a producer of 1Bn barrels as being worth 500% on their valuation of 196p, taking it to 945p. Allowing for the 25% higher oil price the valuation would increase to 1181p

So by the time Shell Italia are drilling the Thrust and Fold belt in Q3, the NOP SP should be speculatively bought up to at least 4 per share, leaving room for a double or treble for those already in, if they hit 1Bn+ barrels of producible oil as expected.

Digital Look Analysts, 3 strong buy and very bullish figures for 2011/2012. None of them will have included anything for Italy yet.

This thread is turning into a one man ramping campaign!

Wow, someone else is reading!

I keep telling myself to buy more NOP, but I need to keep putting it all down in writing to convince myself ;)

NOP Gloden Cross just completed. Its on the way up now.

ptholden are you on about tom or TA because tom has rampted this for years

markymar, he/she was on about me!

Tom has been bullish on NOP and still is(350p target). Until now NOP has remained undervalued, but NOW is the time for NOP to become a star. You only have to look at the last four RNS, then add the speculative buying that will come with Shell Italia drilling the 1Bn+ barrel field and you will see it. About 5 or 6 broker/analysts now have NOP as a strong buy or they have a much higher price target, its too late to go picking on tom at this stage.

Going well today. Looking for a close above 130p for a 10-month breakout. If not today then I am confident it will get there tomorrow.

Nice progress today, moving like a rocket, playing catch up !

Flash Note
5th January 2011
Analyst: Dr Michael Green
Northern Petroleum* Impressive news flow: Strong Buy at 128p with a revised 167p target price

http://www.gecr.co.uk/file_download/89/GECR04_Northern_Petroleum_5thJan2011.pdf

136p uncrossing trade of 51,000 shares, 69,360 worth, very nice! highest price paid today, so someone really wanted the stock!

So much on the very long term chart, it might blow your mind!!

If it goes through 163.5p it should fly to 2, if it gets through 2 the sky is the limit ;) ;)

100% BUY
http://www.insidestocks.com/texpert.asp?sym=NOP.LS&code=BTTEN


Top 1% of the BUY strength and direction indiactors, 100% BUY
http://www.barchart.com/snapopinion/stocks/NOP.LS

As if NOP does not have enough bullishness surrounding it, with analyst rec's, technical indicators going ballistic etc, NOP now has BID SPECULATION to add to it!!

MARKET REPORT: Oil price sparks energy interest
By ELLIOT WILSON
Last updated at 10:35 PM on 5th January 2011

With the price of a barrel of oil again closing in on $100, market watchers are starting to imagine which UK-listed energy firms would look good on the auction block.

Northern Petroleum may be one of the first independents against the wall - a target for supermajors such as BP and Shell, or state-backed oil giants from India and China.

London-listed but with operations in Italy and Holland, Northern Petroleum said in December it had started production at a new Dutch oil field earlier than expected. Its stock has had a turbulent week, spiking and falling as investors seek consensus on its price. It closed up 16p at 136.00p, after rising 11p the day before.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1344474/MARKET-REPORT-Oil-price-sparks-energy-interest.html

Told ya! :)

Northern Petroleum PLC
Markwells Wood Update

06 January 2011

Northern Petroleum Plc

("Northern" or "the Company" (AIM: NOP))

Oil in Markwells Wood-1 Well Confirmed

Northern announces that assessment of the logs has confirmed that the entire
Great Oolite drilled reservoir sequence in Markwells Wood-1 is oil bearing
above the Horndean Field oil water contact of 4446 feet sub-sea level (TVD SS),
meeting the primary objective.

The presence of mobile ("live") oil was observed when the 30 feet of core was
extracted from the well. Initial analysis of the logs indicate the well, which
was deviated at an inclination of approximately 56 degrees through the Great
Oolite, penetrated a gross hydrocarbon bearing interval of 275 feet with a
calculated net reservoir of 192 feet with an average porosity of 13-14%, a
typical porosity value for this reservoir in the nearby fields in the same
formation. The top of the Great Oolite was encountered 51 feet low to prognosis
and the Great Oolite vertical thickness was 146 feet compared to a prognosis of
240 feet.

The analysis of the core is currently underway and that data will be integrated
with the petrophysical evaluation and image logs to design the testing
programmes.

Testing to establish pressures and flow rates in the existing wellbore will
take place when the required services and equipment have been contracted.
Testing operations will be conducted utilising a work-over rig at a lower day
rate cost. Analysis of the result will enable the determination of the oil
reserve potential and will be the basis for production planning.

Derek Musgrove, Managing Director of Northern, commented:

"The Markwells Wood-1 well has to date presented us with encouraging results.
An oil bearing sequence has been encountered in the target reservoir adjacent
to the producing Horndean oil field within its mapped structural closure.
Detailed analysis of the core and logs will provide information on reservoir
quality. Expected production rates will be derived from the future test
programme.

Success at Markwells Wood, helped by current oil prices, should enhance the
value of the other undeveloped discoveries and exploration prospects held under
licence by Northern in the UK."

Bit by bit,... the sp could go a long way....

Not wishing to piss on anyone's fireworks, but haven't they found quite a lot less than expected?

Good news the oil is there though.

It is good. Especially as the rise ofthe last two days was not based on expectation of this news, it was on the Time 'tip for 2011' and t1ps.com 'buy to 145p with a 350p target', probably a few buying because of yesterdays G&CR upgraded buy note with a higher target price, others buying because of the Golden Cross and 10-month breakout. So after the initial dust of automated limit buys/sells settles, we should see the bulls go for a run again.

ptholden, and what exactly do you base that on? they have not announced how much they have found because they don't know yet, so how can you possibly know??

The important bit is "the entire Great Oolite drilled reservoir sequence in Markwells Wood-1 is oil bearing"

Top...you should start your own thread for NOP and get some graphs on and up date the header as this is old at 2006 and out of date and you do put a lot of time in.

I'd base my comment on the RNS.

Hint, 'prognosis', although I may have misunderstood, hence the question.

SP isnt exactly galloping away.

markymar, good idea, might do that ;)

ptholden, give the buyers a chance, most of them are on their way to work. There is no indication of the amount of oil in the field.

The bit you are referring to is a red herring "The top of the Great Oolite was encountered 51 feet low to prognosis and the Great Oolite vertical thickness was 146 feet compared to a prognosis of 240 feet.", because "the well, which was deviated at an inclination of approximately 56 degrees through the Great Oolite, penetrated a gross hydrocarbon bearing interval of 275 feet with a calculated net reservoir of 192 feet", I am no scientist but even I know that 192 feet of oil does not fit in a 146 feet hole!

Drills prepare to move in as firm strikes oil

Published Date:
06 January 2011
By Adam Kula

A firm is to drill underneath a tiny village after striking oil.

Northern Petroleum believes there may be half a million dollars' worth of oil at Forestside in West Sussex, around one mile east of Rowland's Castle.

It estimates up to six million barrels of exploitable crude oil is there for the taking - worth around $90 per barrel at today's prices. That works out at half a billion dollars' worth - equal to around 346m.

Northern has long suspected there was oil lying under the site and will now carry out more tests to discover whether the deposit is as big as it believes.

Derek Musgrove, managing director of Northern, said: 'It's encouraging. The good thing is we've managed to drill it without great impact on the local community.

'I think you'll find most people have not found it inconvenient. These days any industry that makes a profit locally is good.'

But he said the knock-on effect for the area would be small.

'If we put in a trench we're probably going to use local contractors, or if we need nightwatchmen we'll use local contractors,' he said.

Mr Musgrove said the firm would put a Texas-style 'nodding donkey' pump on site shortly.

But he said disruption to the area would be 'about zero'.

He plans to move the oil either by lorry or by an underground pipe connected to Northern's existing Horndean site, where it has been extracting oil for two decades.

Sandy Parker, 59, is a resident of the village, and secretary of the Forestside Social Club.

She said: 'We should have bought shares. It might actually be under my house because the drill curves under the ground.

'I'm just glad for them. They've put a lot of effort into it.'

Northern is also set to begin drilling at its Havant site later this year in search of oil. It wanted to drill under Leigh Park last year, but held off to concentrate on work at the Forestside site.
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/newshome/Drills-prepare-to-move-in.6681123.jp

A red herring?

You can't be serious.

Obviously like me, you don't have the technical knowledge to make a judgement.

ptholden, well the experts agree with me not you.

Markwells Wood delivers the goods
AIM-listed Northern Petroleum today confirmed an oil find at the Markwells Wood-1 well, drilled in West Sussex in the UK's onshore play.
Upstream staff 06 January 2011 08:38 GMT
The company originally flagged up the find last month, but today said the entire Great Oolite drilled reservoir sequence was oil-bearing.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article240768.ece

And clearly nobody else can make a judgement as I stated before, not me, not you, not even NOP!!

"Tests are still being carried out to determine the discoverys reserve potential."

i must say, TA is a ramper par excellence ..... Mr P must be one of his proteges

cynic, ramper? your a muppet then, because you can't tell the difference between ramping and good honest research to put forward a case for a stock :p

Agree with you how exactly?

I do not dispute that oil has been found, my question was simply, have they found less than expected?

You have even highlighted the comment I am referring to in your own post 127.

I've checked in the zoo to see if there are any posters wich technical knowlege, but the main poster seems to be you, ramping away as 'mark jags'

ptholden, what part of 'entire' don't you understand?

Your a muppet too then, because you can't tell the difference between ramping and good honest research to put forward a case for a stock either.

ain't TA just as touchy as his protege too

Yada, yada.

You're a typical BB ramper, with no technical expertise, resorting to insults when the results of your 'research' are questioned. Quite why people feel the need to post on multiple BBs is quite beyond me.

When do we get to see that pretty picture of a lorry?

Which bit of 146 feet compared to a prognosis of 240 feet do YOU not understand?

Indeed Ricardo, legends in their own tea break!

Only when people accuse me of things I am not doing and never do. That's where morals come into play.

Can I be fozzy bear, I always liked fozzy.

Cynic can be Kermit!

ptholden, and your a typical bullsh* talking moron. Typical of the type of abuser that comes on a BB just to attack anything anyone else has to say, probably to give yourself some meaning in your sad little life.

Prove anything you have just claimed. You cant because its just your big fat gob talking!

tut tut tut! ..... such personal abuse is most unbecoming
out of curiosity TA, of the 140 posts on this thread, how many are yours?

Prove what?

Seems a nerve has been touched.

If you don't want into NOP go away and get a life, children!

i follow a number of threads where i do not already hold and from time to time, having duly considered, i get on board - e.g. RKH, AFR and a number of others ..... thus my questions are not wholly specious, but certainly i question more deeply when a thread seems dominated by a single poster - e.g. NOP and you

with that in mind, is it really so unreasonable to ask how many of the (now) 143 posts here are attributable to you?

.

trouble with vitriol, or perhaps like same, it has little commercial value

.

cynic, if you think its SO IMPORTANT, you go count my posts, because I am NOT your post counting monkey.

As for my opinion on such utter tripe, the fact I have posted a lot of RESEARCH and not that many people have responded is TOTALLY IRRELEVANT.

As I said, get a life!

You're such a bully Cynic.

Oops, SP going backwards (for now).

Perhaps the Market rather than the so called BB experts agree with my own prognosis - who knows.

it was a very easy and quick exercise

TA's first post was number 65 on 22/12/10 ..... since then, there have been 85 posts of which TA contributed 52

so then, 3 reasonable possible conclusions can be drawn .....

TA is a Prophet in his own Land and knows what he is talking about
or
TA doth protest too much, with the result that other members here treat his findings, rightly or wrongly, with a scepticism born of past badly burnt appendages
or
TA is actually spouting a load of tosh

Didnt i use to do that with Desire..........its when your Passionate about a share i think thats the word your looking for Cynic.

i agree marky and hence my post 144 ..... in this instance i have still to be convinced

Actually, all joking aside, all I want to know is if they have found less oil than expected. The rather muted SP reaction would suggest that may be true.

I hold a few NOP and it strikes me the value of the oil in the UK is somewhat marginal. However, it will generate cash - and that means this small OilCo continues in politically stable areas in Europe with greater chances of striking the big-time.
If you follow the Co reports there is considerable oil in their portfolio, the trouble is delay, oil-rigs, local opposition and so on.
Add in that money only flows somewhat later than hoped and the sp of small OilCos is unlikely to be very high until their "reserves" translate into "cash-flow" which this development looks likely....however small against the likes of BP's horizon find.
+Other sites of Oil in S.England are already being pumped and are profitable, requiring very little effort after the initial costs, from 20 years ago. Today, NOP's Markwell-wood site looks to confirm the Co. knows its onions - and for most investors that is quite a relief.
((For, many "exploration" Co's on AIM are operating in other Lands so the punter is easily mis-led by promises of "Gold in them thar Hills" - when all it is a PR machine inflating a few pictures of not very much. (All IMHO).)).
If you're buying NOP, this level is probably well worthwhile, but it could dip as in all things some bought lower. The NAV is said to be at least double - - - - but what do I know?

sounds that EO, XEL, PMO and similar are much better investments

Worth a read.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/24377/northern-petroleum-may-get-much-higher-price-for-uk-assets-due-to-markwells-wood-discovery-matrix--24377.html

Also worth a read (you can hardly call me a ramper when I post all the research I find, not just the bullish stuff!).

Looks like some trouble brewing down Italy way. 7 Mayors have signed a petition to try and stop NOP drilling offshore Adriatic!


[Google translation]

FASANO STILL SAYS NO TO OIL DRILLING

Fasano - Fasano reiterates his opposition to drilling off its coast, but not only the entire region. It does so by adhering to the mobilization, as Practiced by Several Mayors Puglia Directly Concerned with this issue. It does so by adhering to the mobilization, as practiced by several mayors Puglia directly concerned with this issue. Last November the Northern Petroleum Said To Have submitted a new application to Obtain government concessions to enable it to carry out drilling in the Adriatic. Last November the Northern Petroleum said to have submitted a new application to obtain government concessions to enable it to carry out drilling in the Adriatic. This has sparked controversy again I know That the mayor of Ostuni Domenico Tanzarella invited around the table Apulian Several administrators to address the common Possibility That the oil companies are Granted Permits previously denied by a ruling of the Tar Lecce, in fact, placet suspended from the positive the Ministry of Environment. This has again sparked controversy so that the mayor of Ostuni Domenico Tanzarella invited around the table several Apulian administrators to address the common possibility that oil companies are granted the permissions previously denied by a ruling of the Tar Lecce, in fact, placet suspended the positive from the Ministry of Environment.


Now that the Northern Petroleum will try again here take the new defense plan. The mayor of Ostuni Tanz - says the mayor of Fasano Lello Di Bari - convened a first meeting in recent days. He Cooperation Sought from all the coastal Municipalities from Polignano a Mare up to Otranto. He sought cooperation from all the coastal municipalities from Polignano a Mare up to Otranto. We responded in seven. We have responded in seven. Apart from Ostuni and Fasano, in fact , there are Monopoli, Polignano, Carovigno, Otranto and Brindisi to Which Is Added to the Province of Brindisi. Ostuni and Fasano well, in fact, there are Monopoli, Polignano, Carovigno, Otranto and Brindisi to which is added to the Province of Brindisi. We sat around a table to draft a joint document That Could Have more value Than That individual actions before and it HAD HAD little effect. We sat around a table to draft a joint document that could have more value than individual actions and previous who had had little effect. Each Municipality has Identified ITS Subsequently engineers who met and put down to document Mayors Have That then we signed. Every municipality has identified its engineers who subsequently met and put down a document that then we have mayors signed. I can only express my deep satisfaction Because, as I'm arguing for a long time, we can make a more Uniting Determined to continue Our reasons. I can only express my deep satisfaction because, as I'm arguing for a long time, uniting we can carried out in a more determined our reasons. In Our document Also Announced strong legal action if this attempt to pollute Our sea going forward. In our document also announced strong legal action if this attempt to pollute our sea going forward.

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gofasano.it%2Fnotizie%2Fcronaca%2Ffasano-dice-ancora-no-alle-trivellazioni-petrolifere9274.html&sl=it&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8

So, how much oil?

Someone(maxk?) posted on ADVFN a few days ago that they expected 10% recoverable from the oilfield. If this is correct then the oilfield is thought to be 50m barrels, because NOP are saying they think they can get 5m barrels out. Prior to drilling NOP has an estimate of 33.5m barrels, up to a potential 60m barrels. Therefore the field is 16.5m barrels higher than the initial estimate, only 10m short of the maximum thought to be there. This could change but hopefully for the better.

Also, Havant will be drilled later in the year.

NOP had 22m as anounced just before XMas, so getting the rig should be quick and as its so easy to get up and running the results could be in before month end.



"However, the oil firm Northern Petroleum is now to carry out further tests after determining up to 5 million barrels of exploitable crude oil lies under the surface. At today's prices, the deposits could fetch a total of around 290m (or $450m)."

"Northern is also set to begin drilling at its Havant site in Hampshire later this year in search of oil."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8243813/Tiny-village-in-West-Sussex-sitting-on-black-goldmine-worth-half-a-billion-dollars.html

The Sun is saying it might be 35m barrels. So that is still above the initial estimate, although not up to the max they thought as possible.

"Markwells is thought to contain "only" 35million barrels - ten times fewer than some North Sea discoveries. But it is huge for an onshore find."
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/3334903/Majestic-Wine-boss-slams-weather-moans.html

Horndean is producing around 190bpd from 4 wells, has been for years. Take the same from MW1 and its worth $5,894,750($85 a barrel) or 3,815,082 per annum, to next year maybe $8,668,750($125 a barrel) or 5,610,415 per annum.

Revenues for the 6 months to 30 June 2010 were a shade over 7m, so this should add a good 30% to revenues. 5 wells instead of the 4 at Horndean would likely add 50% to annual revenues at next years oil prices.

So after all the huffing and puffing, less oil was found than expected?

all oil was onshore at least once since created - almost certainly anyway

ptholden, you can't read either then LOL!!!!

Read it SLOWLY

They expected to find 33.5m barrels, but they found between 35m and 50m barrels.

Now do you get it?

The MW1 oil could add 50% to revenues in what is a profitable company. Tullow oil well in Guyana would add 35% t0 65% onto current revenues(drilling Q1), so there is easily visible doubling of revenues and profit. This brings us back to the bid speculation from the news the other day. NOP is still cheap based on the visible growth. Add the Italian drilling for 1Bn+ (up to 8Bn with all the prospects?) barrels and a pre-emptive strike by BP, Shell(thus getting 100% of Italy) or similar could be on the cards soon.

A quick summary of info and my view of how things will go for NOP.

Current SP should be 196p according to Goldman Sachs, this is at $85 a barrel. The consensus expected 2011 average for oil is around 25% higher, which would lead to an increased valuation on NOP to 235p
t1ps.com have a 'buy up to 145p with a 350p target' recommendation
NOP is a 'Tip for 2011' from The Times
3 brokers are listed on Digital Look, all have 'strong buy' for NOP
Matrix analysts have a 170p target
http://gecr.co.uk/ have a 314p target

Results from MW1 should be in within a week or two, if they hit 35m to 60m barrels and a producer it will be seen as big news for NOP.

Tullow are drilling Guyana in Q1. The oilfield is expected to be similar to the nearby Jubilee field which is running at 58,000 bpd rising soon to 120,000 bpd. If Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5% to 65% increase on its production today.

Based upon the above the NOP SP should easily pass 2 by the end of Q1.

Also by the end of Q1 Shell Italia MUST make a decision on drilling the Thrust and Fold belt offshore Italy, targeting 1Bn+ barrels of oil. Goldman Sachs have pencilled in Q3 2011 for the drilling.

Based on Shell Italia going ahead with drilling in Q3 2011, the SP should rise rapidly on the announcement and continue rising as the date nears for the spudding in Q3.

Goldman Sachs have valued a successful oil strike on a producer of 1Bn barrels as being worth 500% on their valuation of 196p, taking it to 945p. Allowing for the 25% higher oil price the valuation would increase to 1181p

So by the time Shell Italia are drilling the Thrust and Fold belt in Q3, the NOP SP should be speculatively bought up to at least 4 per share, leaving room for a double or treble for those already in, if they hit 1Bn+ barrels of producible oil as expected.

Still think you should start a new thread with a new header as the one on top is well out of date and no charts.

The share is on my watchlist.

here's a chart for you marky .... certainly a strong breakout and good that the possible resistances (that is see!) at 125/130 have been firmly breached

Richard, are those MAs 200 & 50?

red = 25 ...... green = 50 ...... black = 200

Curious

TA has been banging on about the Golden Cross, posting charts which clearly show two MAs crossing whilst both heading up, the chart above does not.

Edit: Ah, mystery solved, EMAs do the necessary.

Northern Petroleum are on the BBC's teletext service (analogue), page 117.......this is an impressive little company in the making.....

indeed not though the breakout looks quite impressive ...... to be honest, i never set much store by either golden or dead crosses

It's what's coming this year that will send this over 200p.....buy now and wait....

ptholden, correct!

EMA is the one to use for the 50 over 200, not the SMA. In my chart below I use EMA on ADVFN PRO charting and the 50EMA is crossed a rising 200EMA. It makes no difference whether the 200 SMA is rising on the Golden Cross either. Quote from a TA site:


In the Merrill Lynch report prepared by Mary Ann Bartels, it continues to distinguish between golden crosses that happen with a downward long term moving average and those when the long term moving average is rising:

Of the 42 Golden Cross signals triggered since 1928, 20 have occurred with the 200-day moving average in a declining trend or lower than it was 30 trading sessions ago. These signals on average have generated 12-month returns of 13.3%.

The remaining 22 signals occurred when the 200-day moving average was rising or higher than it was 30 trading sessions ago. The returns for these signals were much lower and on average generated 12-month returns of 5.7%.

cynic, shame you don't put much on Golden Crosses or Dead Crosses, look at the money you could have made on NOP if you did ;)

Chart from before the Golden Cross as I was predicting it at the time I bought in(at 111p). This GC is coming from about the same base as the GC of 2007, suggesting 2 could be along by end of Q1.

Italy.

"The unaudited, mean, combined and unrisked Prospective Resources of all mapped prospects in the six licences from the present limited seismic data base is estimated by Northern at 1.9 billion barrels (100%) recoverable."

"The indicative gross estimate of the optional work programme that Northern will be carried on for its share up to the point of earn in by Shell on this acreage is in excess of Euro100 million."

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=29712132&symbol=LSE:NOP

TA - i fully understand the logic of golden and dead crosses, but being a simpleton, i tend to follow trend or momentum and certainly pay attention when sp surges through 200 or even 50 dma ..... overall, the strategy is probably much the same .....

thank you for pointing out what i might have made on NOP, always supposing that i banked profits - i regularly do, though many here do not! - rather than sit like a rabbit when sp crashes (see above!) ...... however, i am more than happy with the profits i actually made over the last couple of years on the likes of RKH, EO, XEL, CFA, HOIL, TLW, IEC et al

meanwhile, you may be pleased to know that i have been paying attention to at least the sentiments you propound here, even though my attention span is far too short to read thoroughly

Share price should rise towards this with speculative buying.

In Guyane, operator Tullow Oil acquired 2,500 square kilometres of 3D seismic in February 2010 which it is now processing and interpreting. As a 1.25% owner, Northern's holding is as a portfolio investor only, but with the prospect's first well targeted for spudding in February 2011, there is a prevailing cautious optimism.

http://uk-analyst.com/shop/page-advice/action-advertorial.show/id-130007935

an interesting read, but when you see the note above NOP was for HAWK with a target of 229 one does have considerable doubts as to the author's sanity, let alone anything else ...... mug-punter holders of HAWK would be ecstatic if sp even reached 22.9p!!

Not looked not HAWK yet, but saw a broker rec' on IG Index(last Wed or Thu) with something like 200%+ upside. This was not the same analyst, so there must be more than one less than sane analyst out there. Either that or they are both right ;)

Digital Look broker recs for HAWK, price and target

06-Jan-11 Daniel Stewart Buy 11.00p 45.00p - Reiteration
06-Dec-10 Daniel Stewart Buy 8.77p 45.00p - Reiteration
29-Nov-10 Westhouse Securities Buy 10.50p 88.00p 37.00p Reiteration
22-Nov-10 Daniel Stewart Buy 13.25p 45.00p - Reiteration
08-Nov-10 Daniel Stewart Buy 12.50p 45.00p - Reiteration
08-Nov-10 Goldman Sachs Buy 12.50p - 24.60p New Coverage

HAWK's shareholders list must resemble a charnel house ..... do yourself a favour and avoid

So the conservative estimate appears to be 350m worth of recoverable oil, because it could be up to 500m, according to 'some experts'.

"For a long time there had been suspension of oil lying below the Markhams Wood site. Some experts believe the reserve could worth be up to half a billion pounds."
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/159082.html

Ok, so who is up for an Italy drilling decision:

1) By end of January
2) In February
3) In March

And drill/no drill?

I am going for option 1 and drill, because the small print on the AGM presentation shows "Time and depth processing by December 2010" "exploration well 2011", then it says "Shell have paid all past costs and for the 2D and 3D seismic programme" then "Shell will pay for drilling and testing a well to earn an interest". We also know the decision was 'expected' in Q4 2010(so Shell were working to that time-line) and that Shell only have until end of Q1 2011 to decide.

So work it out, Shell have forked out a load of cash, spent a lot of time and money looking at these leads, they might have had their own delays but know they need to make this decision ASAP. They were going to decide in Q4 but got delayed, how big could that delay possibly be? if it was from the weather then maybe a few weeks, either way I doubt it will be much longer.

IMVHO they will drill as it is a huge resource, they have already spent a lot of cash and time on it so they have shown a huge interest in it, but if they don't drill they get nothing form this huge resource and they loose all the cash and time spent looking at it. No-brainer to say drill isn't it?


(Lead D is 720 mmbbls, lead E is 1032 mmbbls on 2D, could be higher after 3D or even joined together meaning only one well for 1752+ mmbbls)

Happy reading! Nice picture of MW1 at the bottom, taken in Jan 2011, so someone has been SPYING!!

http://www.soton.ac.uk/~imw/Oil-South-of-England.htm

This seems to be a small to medium oilfield rather like Singleton, but at an early stage of development. There has been several articles in the press regarding this in January 2011, at a time when the first borehole has been completed and the drilling rig removed. The notes below come mainly from press reports. The depth to the oil-water contact is similar and the reservoir, the Great Oolite, is the same. The first well has been drilled by Northern Petroleum. Live oil has been found in a cored portion of the reservoir. Apparently the mean potential is between 35 million barrels of oil in place and 61 million barrels of oil in place (compare to Singleton with 70 million barrels of oil in place). However full information is not available and a programme of testing for production is to take place. Whether this will be another Singleton type oilfield is not yet known, but the probability is good.

Because this well is in the South Downs National Park, there are environmental issues. At present, as shown by photographs included here it is very inconspicuous, and at the present (January 2011) there is just a square area of concrete or tarmac with a single well-head in the centre, and one or two huts. There is no direct public access from the road. However, if you go to the nearby village of West Mardon and walk westward through the woods on the footpaths you can probably find it within about an hour. You may need to ask local dog-walkers where it is, and (unless there is a drilling rig there) you will not see it until you are within about 100 or 200 yards. Unless some drilling or pumping is taking place you will not hear it either. To discover what it might be like from environmental point of view, when pumping oil, walk through South Down footpaths to near the Singleton well site. You will not find that conspicuous either. This website is mainly on geology and not seriously involved with the environmental pro and cons; that is for others to discuss. It is true, though, that the well-site is in a National Park and it takes up a small piece of forest and has an access gravel road; it is also true that it is very well-hidden and is no larger than an area of farm buildings (Might the small loss of forest be compensated for by enlarging some publicly accessible forest nearby?).

So the oil expert says MW1 has a high probability of being like Singleton. Just above the pictures are the details of singleton.

"The site, has at present six wells, including five beam pumps or pumpjacks (nodding donkeys) and a jet pump well. A few years ago the site was producing about 450 barrels of oil per day (2008), but the figure is now higher and at about 600 BOPD (Providence Oil Company). Planned expansion will increase production to between 850 to 1,000 barrels per day. Providence Energy will be increasing the one-hectare site by 0.3 hectares and installing four new jet pumps. Singleton Oilfield has been in operation since 1990 and has expanded several times over the past 18 year"

With gas achieving 0.30 per cubic metre(NL is 0.221 to 0.240) I would say it was time to the get the Po Valley moving. I have E-Mailed HQ to advise them of this.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/11270/po-valley-energy-gas-production-up-69-in-second-half-2010-from-italian-fields-11270.html

cleared

cleared

please enlighten this gormless one!

cleared

Interesting that NOP just had a 911 trade.

http://stocktraderschat.com/tradingforum/general-discussion/1336-mm-signals.html

Anyone believe in coincidences? or history repeating itself? I ask because on looking back again at NOP RNS I see these.

22 January 2009 - Shell Farmout Completed

14th January 2010 - COMMENCEMENT OF OFFSHORE SICILY SEISMIC 3D SURVEY


If they stay consistent then we would get Sicily news this week or next week, at the latest the week after.

Food for thought!

Slight dip on profit taking today, but there is plenty of near term newsflow to get the SP through 140p towards next resistance of 160p.

Tullow spudding in Feb, not long to a spudding date announcement
MW1 testing to start soon, NOP may inform the market that the rig is on-site
Italy drilling decision is overdue, so could come in any time, even as I am posting this
More gas work in Netherlands, they not sitting on their hands there, for sure

Comment from the team at T1ps.com.

All news
Northern Petroleum - Markwells News
January 06, 2011

Northern Petroleum has announced positive news on Markwells Wood. This is clearly a commercial oil prospect. In itself it adds little to NAV ( maybe 3-4p per share). But it shows the potential on its other UK acreage which we know is for sale. I reckon that the price has just gone up from 10 million to 12.5 million and any such disposal, following on from the great news in Holland and Italy in December should accelerate the re-rating. I reject peer group based valuations of 165p - my own s-o-t-p valuation remains at c350p per share - and we own shares in the SF t1ps Growth Fund and continue to buy more

Tom Winnifrith

http://www.jpjshare.com/content/news/11-01-06/Northern_Petroleum_-_Markwells_News.aspx

As a LT holdr this "find" is good news, the cash will come in handy and any Euro Authorities can come and see what a good job they've done + local support, etc.
The only concern I have is the totals banded about. The Avingdon site has produced oil for 20+ years(?) and presumably they drain oil from the surrounding area....so isn't this just "another" tapping...? It doesn't stop NOP making money (Yippee!), but it is a sideshow IMHO to their Continental prospects. SP down a tad today, but will rise when the Ital. Auth. can agree on something....I think it's only a matter of "time" - This find will help the coffers meanwhile.
TA I think you suggested it adds to the potential UK site sale-values, yes I agree it confirms NOP can do the job themselves if the price isn't "right".

BTW, if anyone wants to find it take a flask and sandwiches, you can go past the gate and miss it. The approach photo is only visible after a walk and several twists in a nothing-special track protected by substantial gates. Yes, I've been there 2008. Most impressive environmental attention arround the site. (no comparison, so dunno what to expect). However, I was impressed and suspect locals would be also. I don't think going-there will teach you anything investment-wise... and the site is out-of-bounds.
However, it's good to see an AIM company doing what it says it will. Good-luck.

Just found a bit more research on the Zaedyus play that Tullow are drilling in Feb.

"The Zeadyus well that will be drilled by Shell with Tullow/Total in French Guiana (Feb) is a deep water well. Shell exercised their option from Tullow to become operator of that well. All three targets have very similiar seisemic charateristics to the Jubilee field in West Africa (Jaguar, Eagle & Zaedyus). Very similiar fan plays and Zaedyus is almost identical according to Tullow."

http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=OYL&t=LIST&m=29041651&l=0&pd=0&r=0


So the calculations I posed on 4th Jan are therefore further validated by the above.

"Tullow are drilling Guyana in Q1. The oilfield is expected to be similar to the nearby Jubilee field which is running at 58,000 bpd rising soon to 120,000 bpd. If Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5% to 65% increase on its production today."

hangon, it might not be connected to the sites any more, in which case it will not have been depleted and flow rate will be like the others had when they were first producing.

There is also the possibility that NOP hit a sweet spot at a fracture and get really good flow rates.

NOP need to get on with the testing and let the market know.

NOP did say that if they didn't get a good price for the UK assets they would keep developing them, in which case this well is just as important to revenues as it is to a potential sale of the assets.

Someone has Tullow down for drilling Zaedyus in Jan. They posted this yesterday.

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/tullow-2011-drilling-program-and-results-52284/

Hoping for a Zaedyus spud date in this, if it hasn't already been announced by then.

Tullow "The Group will announce its full year Trading Statement and Operational Update on 20 January 2011"

http://www.slideshare.net/plsderrick/tullow-oil-plc-2010-interim-management-statement

Did anyone else notice Brent Crude is hovering around the $97 range? (US Light Crude is only $91-ish)

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=commoditiestypes&btn=allcomms&gid=EN

Woodland Trust opposes further South Downs oil drilling

11 January 2011 Last updated at 13:42

The Woodland Trust has vowed to oppose any further drilling at an oil well recently discovered under ancient woodland in West Sussex.

About 300m worth of oil has already been discovered by exploratory drilling at Markwells Wood in the South Downs.

Northern Petroleum said the site could yield nearly five million barrels of oil, and the results were encouraging.

The Woodland Trust said it feared the discovery could lead to further testing or extraction across the South Downs.

Christine Byrne, campaigns case officer for the woodland conservation charity, said it could "spell danger for other precious conservation sites".

Further tests
The Sussex Wildlife Trust has also expressed a similar concern that the ancient woodland should be protected.

Spokeswoman Janyis Watson said: "We would really question what the value of this amount of oil is in this location and perhaps even what the oil would be used for.

"Will it be used to make things that end up in landfill so that we are then arguing cases against more landfill sites?"

Northern Petroleum was given consent to test for oil in 2008 by West Sussex County Council, and began drilling last November.

The move was opposed by Chichester District Council, the South Downs Joint Committee and the Woodland Trust.

Last week, the company said it would be carrying out further tests to determine the site's potential.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-12161726

TA is that why NOP hasn't received any offers?

halifax, how do you 'know' NOP hasn't recieved any offers? and if so, how could it possibly have anything to do with news that only came out 30 minutes ago?

NOP put the sale process on hold because new prospective buyers arrived at the last minute. NOP are developing the UK assets regardless of whether a buyer is lined up or not.

TA if NOP has received offers then they would issue an RNS, news that there are strong objections to the development of this site are not going to encourage possible bidders, as regards NOP proceeding on their own it is a question of how much it will cost them in legal fees and management time.

halifax, they would not have issued an RNS if they had recieved an offer, as it is not an offer for the company it is a sale of assets for which there are several potential buyers. Only when a sale is agreed and the other potential buyers walk away would there be an RNS.

As for developing the assets, that is what they are doing. Just because these people say no drilling in the forest, that does not stop NOP drilling outside in the field, does it. Ever heard of directional drilling?

NOP got the permission to drill the well despite opposition from these people, do you think that now oil has been discovered that he gov't will not let them produce from it? There is no guarantee whatsoever that it will cost NOP anything in legal fees to get permission to produce.

Either way, the UK is not the big game for NOP, it is a simple cash generating machine which they can still sell for 10m(could have been 12.5m with MK1 included).

The big game for NOP is Italy, 8Bn+ barrels potential. 1.75Bn barrels in the first two targets. NOP's cut of the first two targets would value NOP at 945p per share at $85 per barrel. Q3 drilling expected(by Goldman Sachs)

In the meantime Tullow drilling Guyana in Feb is worth 33% to 65% on top of the current valuation if the oil there is as Tullow expect.

TA as we all know potential=pie in the sky!

Won't stop him posting it all at least twice a day though Mr Halifax!!

halifax, the same 'potential' that nearly every other stock in the world is bought on????

Or are you one of these people that only buy blue-chips based on financial data on results????

If so then stick to that, because comments like the one you just posted are simply meaningless to other investors.

Brent Crude oil hits two-year high of $98

Rowena Mason, 19:34, Wednesday 12 January 2011
Oil hit a two-year high of more than $98 per barrel in London on Wednesday, as appetite for risk returned to the market.

Prices have been rising partially due to a leak in Alaskas main pipeline, which carries a sixth of Americas oil. Around 95pc of production from the regions North Slopes has stopped and the pipeline operator only re-started it on Wednesday at a lower than normal flow rate.

There are quite a few good reasons that could explain and verify the current high oil prices, says Myrto Sokou, analyst at Sucden Financial. The recent shut in the key Trans Alaska pipeline, forecasts about heavy winter conditions in the US North East, as well as strong equity markets, could provide further support to crude oil prices. It might be fairly soon that we can see the oil prices back to the $100 level.

However, experts added on Wednesday that the outages and cold US weather did not entirely explain the recent spike, especially given the $6 difference in European and US benchmark oil prices.

This has come about because the price of London oil, called Brent Crude, is rising faster than the price of US crude oil, known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

Brent is seen as a better marker of international demand than WTI, which is a landlocked crude stored far away from the coast mainly reflecting US demand.

Global (news) appetite for oil is growing. The US Department of Energy (JJE - news) raised its forecast to 88.02m barrels of oil consumption per a day from 87.78m estimated last month.

Speculators may also be targeting the London oil price, betting that the price will go above $100. Global hedge funds have pumped millions of pounds into oil futures pushing the number of contracts held by financial traders to a four-year high.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Brent-Crude-oil-hits-two-year-tele-2422867242.html

naughty hali-wali! .... you're behaving like your mentor here and you know it only aggravates TossA

The only TossA round here is cynic, as proven by the crap he posts.

You only need to check other BB's on here for posts by cynic to see what a moron he is. I am not the only one that thinks this, its A CONCENSUS!!!!

cielo - 11 Jan 2011 16:13 - 422 of 440

I think someone ( cynic ) has scape from the mad house.

Moved my NOP cash to EOG just now, reasons below.


As I feared and posted last week following the action against drilling the Adriatic, Sicily is now being targeted by activists, its news in Italy today. They want to use the 'Mediterranean Action Plan', which as one of its aims "to limit and intervene promptly on oil pollution". So not only is the UK facing action in the woods, Shell Italia are facing opposition in Sicily!


Translated from Italian news:

According to data from environmental groups, would be more than a hundred permits required or existing research in the Mediterranean. Many of which affect their own Sicily.

Yet, according to environmentalists, a way to stop the drills there. It's called Mediterranean Action Plan, created under the auspices of UNEP (United Nation Environment Program), the plan foresees the creation of a network of Marine Protected Areas in the Mediterranean. Among these, the most important is just the Strait of Sicily, for some years the object of desire of the oil.

Mediterranean Action Plan
http://www.unepmap.org/index.php?module=content2&catid=001001002

so ramp ramp ramp suddenly turned into dump dump dump and let's change horses shall we

cynic, still a prick I see, can't tell the difference between buying and selling based on news and the drivel between your ears. Tossa!

oh now i see .... you're just such a brilliant chap, that your exotic utterances of what stocks one should buy or sell are quite beyond my amoeba intellect ..... now how on earth do i EVER manage to make a bean from shares? ..... perhaps a phrenologist could shed some light on that .... anyway good to see that you sign off with your new and apposite handle

cynic, all anyone needs, to know the depths of your investment prowess, is a proctologist.

now that's a good name for HMRC, for they seem very keen on taking large samples from me each year

Guyana drill April, not Q1 but early Q2.

http://www.caribbeanpressreleases.com/articles/8013/1/Guyana-Oil-and-gas-industry-prospects-still-high--President-Jagdeo/Page1.html

sp has not moved since you bailed out, so are you now implying that you have bought back in?

Dunno why sic-nic is posting on here, he knows I have him squelched as I don't need to read his drivel.

wonderful ...... fame as squelched by someone at last, even if it is only TossA ..... and of course, if i am squelched, how does TossA know my post was even directed towards him?

1 more post I don't see, from the filtered muppets beavis and butthead I guess LOL!

TopAnalyst, why is the share price of NOP so low compared to their P2 reserve figure ? Even Tempus has pointed out that they trade at only $1.50 bbl.
Using the companies figures 92 million shares in issue with P2 reserve figure of 102m boe, net debt is around 15m. Based on those figures the shareprice should be alot higher.
Thanks in advance.

robnickson, share is unloved!

Two brokers moved to hold from buy recently. Some have targets of 186p so there will be a lot of selling above 150p, a big limiter to near-term upside. You can see the broker rec's on Digital Look, free to register.

I sold out and moved the cash to EOG as the risk is much lower. The EOG MCap is much lower and has a very good chance of being a 10-bagger within 18 months. NOP could only really be a 5-bagger and they are also far more risky too. Pays yer money and takes yer choice ;)

Thanks for the quick reply, i used to have EOG shares but sold out. NOP had a sudden shareprice upswing today.
Good luck with EOG.

rob - a rhetorical question really .... forget all this crap about "baggers" ..... in hard cash, would you risk the same amount in an amoeba company as you would in properly established one in the same field? .... personally, i would not

whether or not EOG is a sure-fire winner as TossA consistently insists, is still very much open to question ..... it happens that i have a small investment in EOG as i think it's very high risk, but an awful lot more in the likes of PMO and TLW

cynic, so your opinion is that the management at NOP is poor ? Dont have the big guys PMO or TLW in my portfolio but the smaller oilies are doing just fine, XEL, NPE, EO, and still waiting for PTR to takeoff !!!

that wasn't the point of my post ..... the point was related to the amount of CASH that i would put into a given quality of stock - e.g. not much into EOG (very high risk), rather more into EO when i held it, and loads more into PMO and TLW

i don't go in for this macho posturing of "x stock was a 10-bagger for me" ..... i am happy to make a profit and prudently bank from time time, or even cut losses .... i neither profess nor pretend to expertise in any field, but merely pick and choose, often based on momentum and paying attention to at least a few posters on this BB ..... for sure i've picked some stinkers or got the timing completely arse over tit, but certainly overall for the last couple of years, i have made (BANKED!) some sizeable contributions to my bank manager

OK, well done. If it makes you money Go For It !
Now then off to read the Naked Trader by Robbie Burns.

Should it be moving up soon?

It's been rather static recently - Any thoughts?

Today might be a disastrous day for NOP.

oops! indeed - take xel last upgrade rns and it tanked - nop have reduced! however see some opportunities for an interesting day ahead here unless you are unfortunate to be in already before this not good at all rns

gl

exit doors already spinning

70p on the line

As I predicted, 74p now and looking gloomy.

Looks like NOP has been mining more water than oil from the rns.

What on earth have they done ?.....bad news this.....TW will not be pleased....

The fall is overdone imo.

At Wijk en Aalburg, which came into commercial production in December 2010,
Northern has experienced the production of increasing quantities of oil,
followed by increasing quantities of water, which has now affected production
levels.

There are several possible explanations for such behaviour. A possibility could
be a near borehole build up of asphaltenes inhibiting flow. The well also has a
geological fault intersecting the base of the reservoir sequence which may be
acting as a conduit for the influx of liquids. It could also be a delay to
influx of lower permeability reservoir matrix gas, as at Grolloo. The issues
are being addressed and instruments were placed in the well on 25th May as a
first step in the determination of possible interventions. The carrying value
of the Wijk en Aalburg field as at 31st December 2010 is approximately 8
million. If the well interventions are ultimately unsuccessful, then Northern
would expect to see significant non cash depletion and impairment charges to
the income statement within the results for the year ending 31st December 2011,
the exact quantum of which would depend on, inter alia, future field
performance and gas prices.

It should be called Southern Petroleum.

Reserve estimates for Geesbrug, Grolloo and Wijk en Aalburg, the Company now expects to report a loss after tax for the year ended 31st December 2010 as a consequence of the resulting additional non cash depletion and impairment charges to the income statement.

Average production for 2010 was approximately 1,200 barrels oil equivalence per
day. The Company expects to report 2010 revenue of approximately 15 million,
broadly in line with market expectations.

Average production for the first four months of 2011 has been just over 1,900
barrels oil equivalence per day.

On average Dutch gas prices have increased by approximately 13% over the first
four months of 2011.

At Grolloo, which started commercial production in late 2009, the initial plan
had been to install compression and or other surface equipment to aid and
increase production once the pressure had stabilised and there was an
observable influx of supplementary gas flow from the lower permeability
reservoir matrix, allowing for the basis of design for the equipment. Until now
no such stabilisation has been observed.

Northern considers that it is not feasible to add compression in time to make a
material impact to 2011 gas production. In conjunction with preparation of the
Annual Report and Accounts for 2010 and for the purposes of production
projection and reserve assessment for the Grolloo gas field, Northern has taken
the decision to adopt what is considered to be the more conservative view that
pressure support from lower permeability reservoir matrix will not occur.

At Wijk en Aalburg, which came into commercial production in December 2010,
Northern has experienced the production of increasing quantities of oil,
followed by increasing quantities of water, which has now affected production
levels.

There are several possible explanations for such behaviour. A possibility could
be a near borehole build up of asphaltenes inhibiting flow. The well also has a
geological fault intersecting the base of the reservoir sequence which may be
acting as a conduit for the influx of liquids. It could also be a delay to
influx of lower permeability reservoir matrix gas, as at Grolloo. The issues
are being addressed and instruments were placed in the well on 25th May as a
first step in the determination of possible interventions. The carrying value
of the Wijk en Aalburg field as at 31st December 2010 is approximately 8
million. If the well interventions are ultimately unsuccessful, then Northern
would expect to see significant non cash depletion and impairment charges to
the income statement within the results for the year ending 31st December 2011,
the exact quantum of which would depend on, inter alia, future field
performance and gas prices.

At Geesbrug, a far larger gas field which was placed on-stream in December
2009, the production performance has been analysed in conjunction with the
disappointing results of the Tiendeveen-1 well five kilometres away. An updated
static reservoir model has been constructed that forms the current basis of the
revised reserves assessment prior to updating the dynamic model.

will be watching for an opportunity here - i like challenges! after 3pm today & tuesday of most interest - yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

No, gibby... the fun was early this morning.

i know i was there lol - it is possible for some more end of day / early tues imo - i meant post this morning
gl

There will be more downward trend when NOP announces its reserves which is expected to be much reduced from previous estimation.

Buy Northern Petroleum (NOP) at 133.75p
Argues Tom Winnifrith of t1ps.com

Tom Winnifrith originally tipped Northern Petroleum (NOP) on t1ps.com way back in 2001 at 13.75p. Since then the shares have risen by 873%! But Tom believes there is still much further to go for the share price and that is why this red hot penny share is todays free share tip on UK-Analyst.com.

On t1ps.com, Tom publishes 20 hot tips like this each year with frequent updates on their progress. And while past performance is no guarantee of future success and some have gone down in value, we believe the overall t1ps record is pretty impressive. Since the foundation of the site in the summer of 2000 to 21st January 2011 across 221 tips, the average gain per tip was 59.64% with an average holding period of 31.7 months.*

And heres why Northern Petroleum is still a buy

Anyone without oil exposure at present needs their head examined. But that does not mean you should buy just any old oil stock. You want one with production not a wildcat explorer. You want one that is cheap at $70 oil but which will go through the roof if the Middle East crisis really kicks off. And you want one with exploration upside as a bonus. The stock you want to own is Northern Petroleum.

Now a few declarations before I go on. This company is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the owner of UK-Analyst.com. Funds I manage own a shed load of Northern shares (and are well up!) and also I first tipped this on t1ps at 13.75p so my readers are already almost 900% ahead. But that does not mean that you should not be buying more. Our fund has done so in recent months as this stock is just phenomenally cheap even in the unlikely event that the Mid East becomes some sort of multi-party democracy using an electoral system devised by Nick Clegg with women only shortlists and oil goes back to $70.

At 132.75p Northern is valued at 122 million. I value this on a sum of the parts basis. And here goes:

Net cash 20 million.

Holland Its producing assets will at current gas prices generate EBITDA of c20 million a year starting this year. There is exploration upside I value at nothing (but that is harsh) and so on a multiple of 5, which is less than a DCF valuation would arrive at, Holland is worth 100 million. That is very much a base case scenario.

The UK Northern is a producer from stakes in 2 fields (Avington and Horndean) with a 3rd (Markwells Wood) due onstream at some stage. It has exploration upside but I shall ignore that totally. Its assets will produce an average of 1.25 million free cashflow (on an $80 price) for 20 years. I shall be mean as this is onshore UK and value them at 10 million.

Guyane Northern has a 1.25% stake in a potentially giant field where Tullow will be actively driving forward a seismic and drilling campaign over the next two years. Wessex ( which also has a 1.25% stake) says that its stake is, on a risk weighted basis, worth 20 million and there is broker research to support this claim. Heck, if Tullow finds something 20 million will be conservative. But it has not yet. So I value this asset at 5 million but note the upside.

Italy Northern has vast exploration acreage which we already know contains at least 50 million barrels but the size of fields in the region where it operates offshore Italy means the real number could be much much more. Northern is exploiting this via a series of farm out deals the biggest of which is with Shell which has already undertaken a lot of seismic work on its acreage with Northern. Clearly Italy has potential but what will trigger the market realising this? Two things: Further big name farmouts as Northern still has stacks of acreage it is not working on actively. And secondly a commitment from Shell to start drilling. My sense is that there will be other farm out deals over the next six months and I expect a decision from Shell by the end of May. Frankly it could come at any time. Right now Id value the Italian assets at an extraordinarily mean 1 a barrel (so call it 50 million) but if Shell says it is drilling the valuation would have to double or quadruple or more. And another big farmout would have a material effect too.

Conclusion

So already we have a valuation on a sum of the parts basis of our incredibly mean Italian valuation of 185 million or 200p per share. But that Italian number is just wrong. If we get the right news from Shell or another farmout you could easily be valuing Italy at 200 million and as such 200p becomes 362p.

The point about this is that you cannot finesse a trade. Nobody knows when mighty Shell will pronounce. No-one knows at what pace Northern will sign other farm out deals but I am certain that it will. By the time you read a release the price will have zoomed ahead. So you just have to ask yourself: what is the downside to buying now?

I am pretty sure that the UK assets could be sold quickly if Northern accepted 10 million. So that would leave net cash at 30 million and Holland chucking off 20 million a year that is net cash 33p and Holland chucking off 22p per annum. That more than underpins the current share price on its own which leaves more or less zero downside risk. So the smart investor just takes the plunge, buys now and waits on Italy. It should not be long. The shares should be trading at 200p right now with the right news from the land of Berlusconi then 362p is not unrealistic. That means that, even if you are already 900% ahead, Northern is a slam dunk buy.

For more hot tips like this from Tom, join t1ps.com now.

I will buy next week.

having held both EO and XEL when they dumped, i'm amazed i have never ever held this one - must be a lot of very sore heads

euhhh....yes...

Did you buy any mitzy. I held this stock until January. Never seemed to move for me.
So low now must move up. Good luck if you purchased.

KeywordCompanyEPIC/TIDMSEDOL/ISIN Print Wednesday 08 June, 2011Northern Petroleum PLC
Annual Report and Notice of Annual General Meeting

Embargoed for release: 1730 on 8 June 2011

Northern Petroleum Plc

("Northern" or the "Company")

Annual Report and Notice of Annual General Meeting

Northern is pleased to announce that the 2010 Annual Report, incorporating the
Notice of Annual General Meeting ("AGM"), is now available on the Company's
website (www.northpet.com) and will shortly be posted to shareholders.

The text of the AGM Notice is reproduced in full below:

NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the Annual General Meeting of the Company will be
held at Stationers' Hall, Ave Maria Lane, London, EC4M 7DD on 29 June 2011 at
10.30am for the following purposes:

To consider and, if thought fit, pass the following resolutions to be proposed
as Ordinary Resolutions:

1. To receive the report of the Directors and the audited accounts for the year
ended 31 December 2010.

2. To re-appoint KPMG Audit Plc as auditors and to authorise the Directors to
fix their remuneration.

3. To re-elect A N Brewer (who retires from office in accordance with Article
108 of the Company's Articles) as a Director of the Company.

4. To authorise the Directors, pursuant to and in accordance with section 551
of the Companies Act 2006 (the "Act") to exercise all powers of the Company to
allot ordinary shares in the capital of the Company and grant rights to
subscribe for or convert any security into ordinary shares up to a maximum
aggregate nominal value of 1,162,500 (being approximately 25% of the Company's
issued share capital as at the date of this notice), provided that such
authority shall expire at the conclusion of the next Annual General Meeting of
the Company, except that the Directors may, before such expiry, make offers or
agreements which would or might require ordinary shares to be allotted or
rights to be granted after such expiry and allot ordinary shares or grant
rights in pursuance of such offers or agreements.

To consider and, if thought fit, pass the following resolutions to be proposed
as Special Resolutions:

5. To authorise the Directors, pursuant to and in accordance with section 570
and 573 of the Act, to allot equity securities (as defined in section 560 of
the Act) for cash as if sub-section 561 of the Act did not apply to the
allotment of equity securities pursuant to the authority conferred on them
under section 551 of the Act up to the aggregate nominal value of 465,000
(being approximately 10% of the Company's issued share capital as at the date
of this notice), such power to expire on the earlier of the conclusion of the
next Annual General Meeting of the Company and 15 months after the date of the
resolution (but so as to enable the Company, before the expiry of such power,
to make offers or agreements which would or might require equity securities to
be allotted after such expiry and to enable them to allot equity securities for
cash pursuant to such offers or agreements as if the power conferred thereby
had not expired).

6. To authorise the Company, generally and unconditionally, to make market
purchases (within the meaning of section 693(4) of the Act) pursuant to and in
accordance with section 701 of the Act of fully paid ordinary shares in the
capital of the Company upon and subject to the following conditions but
otherwise unconditionally:

a. the maximum number of ordinary shares hereby authorised to be purchased is
4,650,000, which is approximately 5% of the ordinary share capital of the
Company as at the date of this notice;

b. the maximum price which may be paid for each such ordinary share shall be
an amount no more than 105% of the average of the middle market quotations
for an ordinary share as derived from the Alternative Investment Market of
the London Stock Exchange for the five business days immediately preceding
the day on which such ordinary share is contracted to be purchased
(excluding expenses) and the minimum price which may be paid for such
ordinary share shall be the nominal value of such ordinary share at the
time of such purchase (excluding expenses); and

c. unless previously varied, revoked or renewed, the authority conferred by
this resolution shall expire on the earlier of the date 15 months after the
passing of this resolution and at the conclusion of the next Annual General
Meeting of the Company after the date on which this resolution is passed,
provided that the Company may before such expiry date enter into a contract
to purchase ordinary shares under this authority which will or may be
completed or executed wholly or partly after the expiration of such
authority and may make a purchase of ordinary shares in pursuance of such
contract.

By order of the Board

C J Foss

Secretary

Registered Office:

2nd Floor, Martin House

5 Martin Lane

London

EC4R 0DP

Dated 7 June 2011

Notes:

1. A member of the Company entitled to attend and vote at the meeting convened
by this Notice may appoint a proxy to attend and vote on a poll in his stead. A
proxy need not be a member of the Company. A member may appoint more than one
proxy provided that such appointment is in respect of voting rights attaching
to different shares.

2. To be valid, the enclosed Form of Proxy must be completed and lodged
together with the Power of Attorney or any other authority (if any) under which
it is signed, or a notarially certified copy thereof, at the offices of the
Company's Registrars, Neville Registrars Limited, Neville House, 18 Laurel
Lane, Halesowen, West Midlands B63 3DA not less than forty eight hours before
the time appointed for holding the meeting.

3. Completion of the proxy does not preclude a member from attending and voting
at the meeting if they so wish.

4. The Company, pursuant to Regulation 41 of the Uncertificated Securities
Regulations 2001, hereby specifies that only those shareholders registered on
the Register of Members of the Company at 10.30am on 27 June 2011 shall be
entitled to attend or vote at the meeting in respect of shares registered in
their name at the time. Changes to entries on the relevant Register of Members
after this time shall be disregarded in determining the rights of any person to
attend or vote at the meeting, notwithstanding any provisions in any enactment,
the articles of association of the Company or other instrument to the contrary.

- Ends -

For further information please contact:

Northern Petroleum Plc Tel: +44 (0) 20 7469 2900

Chris Foss, Company Secretary

Cenkos Securities (NOMAD and Joint Broker)

Jon Fitzpatrick Tel: +44 (0) 20 7397 8900

Ken Fleming / Beth McKiernan Tel: +44 (0) 131 220 6939

Jefferies International (Joint Broker) Tel: +44(0) 20 7029 8000

Chris Snoxall

Financial Dynamics Tel: +44 (0) 20 7831 3113

Billy Clegg / Edward Westropp

Bishopsgate Communications Tel: +44 (0) 20 7562 3350

Nick Rome / Michael Kinirons

Notes to Editors:

Further information on Northern is available at www.northpet.com

Archives Newswires LON:NOPProactiveinvestors recommends

Northern Petroleum: many assets, strong focusLENI GAS & OIL: ADVANCING ITS OPERATIONS IN SPAIN, THE GULF OF MEXICO, TRINIDAD AND MALTAXtract Energys Kyrgyz JV gets approval to drill exploration wellAdditional Information
Market: AIM
Sector: Energy
EPIC: NOP
Latest Price: 80.25p (0.63% )
52-week High: 140.00p
52-week Low: 73.00p
Market Cap: 74.69M
1 year chart

1 day chart


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www.northpet.com
Northern Petroleum Plc is an oil and gas exploration, development and production company focused on the European Union and nearby areas. The Company is an operator of both onshore and offshore projects including a producing oilfield and boasts a management and technical team of the highest quality.
.Full Northern Petroleum profile here
Northern Petroleum undervalued, says Edison
11:28 am
Shares in oil and gas group Northern Petroleum suffered badly late last month after it cut reserve estimates for its Dutch assets but broker Edison believes the sell-off has been overdone and the shares are now undervalued Shares in oil and gas group Northern Petroleum(LON:NOP) suffered badly late last month after it cut reserve estimates for its Dutch assets but broker Edison believes the sell-off has been overdone and the shares are now undervalued.

Despite the cut in estimates Edison notes that production from Northerns Netherlands asset base has actually increased significantly in the last year. It adds that based on these assets alone, its core NAV of 126p continues to support value well above Northerns current share price.

The broker furthermore points to material upside potential from the groups Italian portfolio, where several key catalysts are expected near term across a range of high-impact prospects. The successful farm-outing of 15% of its Southern Adriatic prospects to Azimuth is a first step to accessing proven plus probable reserves of 53.2millions barrels.

Meanwhile, the Thrust and Fold Belt project offshore Sicily, containing potential multibillion barrels of oil is also moving forward, with partner Shell recently appointed to hold discussions with the Italian authorities ahead of potential drilling early 2012.

Elsewhere in Italy, Edison highlights the groups 40 billion cubic feet onshore methane gas prospect, which should spud later this year, and notes the company is also working towards drilling further prospects in the Sicily Channel.

Despite the groups recent woes in The Netherlands, Edison reckons it still has a solid production base there, with four new gas fields brought on stream in late 2009 and into 2010 and production increased significantly to 1,195 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2010 from 365boepd. That is providing the cashflow that underpins the exploration drive in Italy.

Despite the recent adjustment for The Netherlands, reserves remain significant at 29.6 million barrels of oil equivalent. Going forward, key potential share price catalysts for operations in The Netherlands include the expected drilling of Papekop-2 and Geesbrug-2 late 2011/early 2012.

The stock was trading at around 120p before the Dutch reserves downgrade took its toll. This morning the shares stood at 78.25p, down 2%.

Edison believes at current levels the stock is undervalued, pointing out that while core NAV, made up solely of Dutch assets, is 126p, the near-term Italian exploration programme, which excludes the major Sicily developments, suggests a Risked Exploration Net Asset Value (RENAV) of150p

Yes, all well and good, but the fall 27May was because the Company was found out. They had to admit their figures were inaccurate, - and so the Market must question "everything they say - from now on."
+ That Edison report was paid-for by NOP (DYOR), so it's possibly prone to putting a gloss on things - and I recall NOP telling the Market that their SP was worth almost double the current valuation and maybe even more . . . that seems to be their line, whatever News was out.

Now, I don't know; but I do care.
BUT - It seems that bringing in profits is "still" a long-way off - hence there is a tendency to Sell. rather than Buy - so MM's push the price lower.

If that "S.England site" doesn't come REALLY good, I suspect we could see 50p - and I recall that happened once before, when NOP was "found-out" (my words- DYOR) when the IoW site was found Dry. . . .. or close-enough not to be worth further work. Whilst there is Oil in the County, there is a risk their share has been "drained away" (my words) over the relatively long time that (now Star-site) has been operating. That production isn't great, but they've repaid their investment - Odd that no-one wanted to buy the NOP-site when it was suggested as a Sale, eh?
If it's Good, it will add little to the sp (but will do Management lots of Good).....but if Bad it will/could destroy their future IMHO - it's largely "trust" that makes investors believe in NOP-Management for as many years as we've endured....

Only when real-profits are IN, will shareholders see any divi - everything else is pure speculation, based on the Co Execs telling us what they think they believe is in the ground. That will only arise, IMHO when Italy (Po-valley), comes on-stream. Ar we seeing a time-scale of another Four Years, perhaps...

Bah!

Never trust NOP again as it gives false accounts

Mining and Resource Investor Evenings

Following the resounding success of our previous events, Shares are pleased to offer another chance for you to meet, hear from and ask questions of key senior management figures from carefully selected companies.

These events offer an unique opportunity not only to hear about the latest plans from some of the most exciting companies in the sector, but also to put your questions to the people that matter. What is more, there are free drinks and canapés receptions where you can mingle with industry leaders and your fellow investors. Make sure you don't miss this unique opportunity to get the answers you need from the people who make the market.

Tickets are completely free but places are strictly limited so register now.

NEXT EVENTS

LONDON

Date: Wednesday 10th October 2012

Venue: Novotel London Bridge,10 Pepys Street, London EC3N 2NR

Registration: 6.00pm

Presentations: 6.45pm followed by a drinks/canapés reception

REGISTER NOW FOR LONDON EVENT


Companies Presenting:



GREEN DRAGON GAS Plc



Green Dragon Gas Plc(GDG) is one of the largest independent companies involved in the production of CBM gas and the distribution and sale of wholesale gas in China.



NORTHERN PETROLEUM Plc








Northern Petroleum Plc (NOP) is an EU oil company that acquires low entry cost exploration, production and development assets and is committed to adding high value to shareholders from production and asset sales.


NOSTRA TERRA OIL & GAS COMPANY Plc



Nostra Terra Oil & Gas Company plc (NTOG) is a fast growing, AIM traded oil and gas producer with projects in Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas and Texas. The USA is going through an oil and gas boom at present as new drilling and recovery techniques expose exciting new reserves out of established hydrocarbon basins and Nostra is well positioned to take advantage of this. The company is debt free, raised £2m over the summer and signed a Standby Equity Distribution Agreement for up to £10m, giving the company the opportunity to quickly pin down highly attractive acquisition opportunities. Matt Lofgran, CEO will be talking about their latest acquisition, new wells and other activity.

Matt Lofgran, CEO

Matt has wide experience of business development in the energy, real estate and communications sectors. Prior to becoming CEO of Nostra Terra in July 2009, he was with Robson Energy, LLC, latterly as Vice President of International Business Development. In this capacity, he launched the oil and gas, field services and coal divisions, and was responsible for extending Robson Energy's activities into Mexico. Mr Lofgran holds a Bachelor of Business Management.


More companies to be announced
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LEEDS

Date: Thursday 11th October 2012

Venue: Redmayne-Bentley, 9 Bond Court, Leeds LS1 2JZ

Registration: 6.00pm

Presentations: 6.45pm followed by a drinks/canapés reception

REGISTER NOW FOR LEEDS EVENT


Companies Presenting:

GETECH GROUP Plc





GETECH's (GTC) principal activities are producing, selling and marketing gravity and magnetic products, and providing gravity and magnetic services to the oil and mineral industry. The Group provides technical capabilities such as structural and geological interpretations to define basin geometry and history, defining source rock maturation history, petroleum systems identification and evaluation, and identification of tectonostratigraphic provinces, tectonic domains and hydrocarbon systems. GETECH has compiled one of the most extensive commercial libraries of gravity and magnetic data.

GREEN DRAGON GAS Plc









Green Dragon Gas Plc(GDG) is one of the largest independent companies involved in the production of CBM gas and the distribution and sale of wholesale gas in China.



NORTHERN PETROLEUM Plc








Northern Petroleum Plc (NOP) is an EU oil company that acquires low entry cost exploration, production and development assets and is committed to adding high value to shareholders from production and asset sales.


More companies to be announced

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NOP found a bit of oil today.

from where did you get that idea?
NOP own a big slab of the TLW duster - see that thread/RNS

Well, I said a wee bit...

The well is located offshore French Guiana. It encountered a total of 85 metres
of reservoir quality sands with oil shows in several objectives interpreted as
not being connected to the Zaedyus-1 discovery well. The future drilling of the
next three wells of this four well programme will target some of the greater
undrilled prospectivity in both the Cingulata fan system that contains the
Zaedyus oil discovery and at least one other major fan system in the licence.

sp down 13%.

you omitted this bit ......

but did not encounter commercial hydrocarbons at this location.

Hey...might be a good rebound here later....will have to watch..

you mean like a dud cheque?

Haha...the difficulty is the timing...worth keeping an eye on..

This sp has been a series of plateaux - where the sp wobbles about but it fixed in a visible range. (see graphs). From May 2012 they were "found-out" (my words) and the Market cut the sp - just recently it happened again as folks find it difficult to see what lies ahead.
The small bounce is in hope they really do get their game together . . . but I fear they are too keen to go slowly-slowly with the danger they go nowhere.
EDIT(19March2013):- DYOR- It seems NOPs almost given-up in Europe, subject to some BIG offer, so have looked to Albertas abandoned wells . . . & with higher prices these might yield using modern tech. As to the Cyprus and Italian sites - you'd think their Govmt would bend over for some International Revenue -/- or reduce their oil Imports . . . seems not...

WATCH: Northern Petroleum #NOP - The 61st Oilbarrel Conference Monday 7th October

http://www.brrmedia.co.uk/event/116794/keith-bush-chief-executive-officer

MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Shares in oil and gas explorer Northern Petroleum are cheap - and exciting projects are in place

By Joanne Hart, Financial Mail On Sunday

PUBLISHED: 22:03, 26 October 2013 | UPDATED: 08:53, 27 October 2013

Oil and gas explorer Northern Petroleum spent years over-promising and under-delivering. Duly punished by the stock market, the shares tumbled from almost 200p in July 2007 to just 31.5p today, but at this price, they are cheap.

The board has been completely rejigged, several exciting prospects are in place and news on these is expected before the end of the year, which should give the stock a lift. The group also has £28 million in the bank after new chief executive Keith Bush sold the firm’s Dutch assets this month.

Yet the company is valued on the market at just over £30 million, suggesting investors put almost no value on any of the other assets – a producing well in West Sussex, a large redevelopment site in Canada, an offshore prospect in Italy, a share in a big project in French Guiana and a shale oil licence in Australia.

Investor scepticism towards Northern stems from a series of disappointments in the past. Bush aims to change that.

Appointed chief operating officer last year, he became chief executive this summer. The board of ten has been cut to six, with only three from the old guard. The other three are Bush, finance director Nick Morgan and chairman Jon Murphy, appointed just a month ago. Further board changes are expected.

Murphy has more than 30 years’ experience in oil and gas and was a leading executive at Venture Production, a business that started out as a small private firm, floated at £180 million in 2002 and was sold to Centrica for £1.3 billion in 2009.

When Bush joined Northern, the main focus was on exploration off the coast of Italy and a small share in the French Guiana project. Both have plenty of potential, but the previous management was uncommunicative and shareholders lost interest.

Under Bush, the group is trying to keep investors more informed, particularly over Italy. Here, Northern is waiting for a signature from a government minister before being allowed to undertake seismic tests that should provide a much clearer picture of how much oil the site could produce.

Optimistic estimates range from 460 million to a billion barrels and Bush would almost certainly use a big partner to develop the area.

Meanwhile, he has bought drilling rights over 9,300 acres in Canada and 1.4 million acres in Australia. The Canadian assets could prove a canny purchase. Developed in the past, they were abandoned in the 1990s when oil prices fell. New technology and higher prices have made the site a lot more interesting, particularly as some infrastructure is already there.

Bush hopes to start drilling in the next few weeks and the area should be produce about 500 barrels of oil a day next year, rising to 1,000 the year after and beyond. Money from this should fund ongoing exploration in Italy and French Guiana, a project largely owned by Shell, Total and Tullow Oil. Northern has 1.4 per cent of the asset but the site is massive and could be highly lucrative.

Northern may also sell its West Sussex assets if the right offer comes along, further boosting its cash pile.

Midas verdict: Northern Petroleum is a relatively high-risk stock, but the potential rewards are enticing. Murphy and Bush are keen to make a success of the firm so bolder investors should buy while the stock is cheap

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-2477456/MIDAS-Shares-oil-gas-explorer-Northern-Petroleum-cheap.html#ixzz2iuk5vkt9
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City broker Westhouse Securities today upgraded its view on recently revamped Northern Petroleum (LON:NOP), with its lukewarm ‘add’ recommendation improving to ‘buy’.

Westhouse’s target price of 120p represents substantial upside from the current market price of 33p per share.

The upgrade follows changes in management, the sale of the group’s Dutch assets, and the prioritisation of a ‘proof of concept’ project in Canada.

And the broker pointed to a farm out of the group’s Italian assets, and drilling operations in Canada as key value catalysts for the AIM quoted explorer.

The plan in Canada is to drill and test three wells, which could allow for field development planning in the first quarter of next year. It has a 50% chance of success, according to Westhouse, which also says the project is initially worth 6p per share.

Northern’s Italian exploration projects, meanwhile, have the potential for 89p per share of upside, according to the broker.

“NOP’s Italian portfolio offers exposure to appraisal (Rovesti, Giove) and high-risk-high-return exploration (Cygnus) with value crystallisation opportunities first through potential farm-out and then through drilling results.”

Cygnus, estimated at between 410mln to 790mln barrels, is the “jewel in the crown”, analyst Jamal Orazbayeva said in a note.

Jan 2014 . . . . and the sp continues to fall away . . . . with renewed prospects in Italy subject to delays by the Ministry and others? it's not looking good for LT holders.
At 31p this is near the all-time low some years ago and since then, Management has been richly rewarded. New shareholders even as recently as 2011 were humping the sp to £1.40 as the company praised its expertise and shareholder-value.
Well, (no pun intended!), that was then- and now- Who knows?
Canada - possibly worth 6p (see earlier Broker Note), but with 50% risk it could lop off 10p IMHO.
Markets don't like successive failures!

LISTEN: Northern Petroleum (NOP) - Canadian operational update

Click the link below to listen
http://www.brrmedia.co.uk/event/122856/keith-bush-chief-executive-officer

Courtesy of Curry on afn.



CURRYPASTY
11 Feb'15 - 08:26 - 885 of 885 0 0


"I have already explained in my Bearcast why Keith Bush, the CEO of AIM casino POS Northern Petroleum (NOP) should be taken out and strung up with piano wire for the contempt with which he has treated the owners of this company where he has been rewarded for abject failure. But today’s RNS requires further comment as it is a classic in omnishambles obfuscation. "

tom winifrith on shareprofits
http://www.shareprophets.com/views/10533/northern-petroleum-what-a-total-fucking-omnishambles-of-an-rns

Tom Winifrith was tipping this for years! No good whining now. In fact they were ever present at his investor show from what I recall. I suppose they can battle on for a few more years on ftse 100 type wages. Good old AIM.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/market_reports/77285/oil-column-no-time-to-panic-as-northern-petroleum-takes-a-pause-0000.html

In freefall today.

a very unloved share at the moment, the trend must be the main reason, apart from the low oil price. maybe soon I will take a punt but not yet ready
3.5 million dump at 2.5p last Friday the 13th

RNS Number : 6445F

Northern Petroleum PLC

23 February 2015

Northern Petroleum Plc

("Northern Petroleum" or "the Company")

Holdings in Company

Northern Petroleum has been informed today that Majedie Asset Management Limited no longer holds any shares in the Company.

-Ends-

For further information please contact:

Northern Petroleum Plc Tel: +44 (0)20 7469 2900

Keith Bush, Chief Executive Officer

Nick Morgan, Finance Director

Westhouse Securities Limited (Nomad and Joint Broker) Tel: +44 (0)20 7601 6100

Northern Petroleum - Onshore Italian permit farm out to Shell

click here

Northern Petroleum - Corporate update

Click here

"Moving the Deck-chairs"

RNS - Co. relocating its Registered Office to Brixton . . . maybe some saving, but I doubt it's the Answer to NOP's fall from favour.... these were touching 50p not that long ago - So full members of the 90% Club....
...Nice work with good pay for Directors...
Oh Dear.
EDIT (21May2015)- seems NOP has good aspirations and appear to be honest sorts - but Petroleum stocks are not looking good - However, the consolation is they are sell Canadian oil on a daily basis - so no need for a Cash-call yet-awhile . . . . we hope!
Oil is no-longer made, ( like Land ), so as we run-out folks will see the Greens for what they are - "Well-meaning" but the whole World wants Oil to burn short-term and that means a rising price - clever investors might buy Oil-Futures ( or Whatever), but I stick with UK-Stock and NOP seems to be pretty low, so have averaged-dn ( Yes I know that's dangerous!).
However.... Dir Bonus only kick-in (DYOR) at 15p, so I guess the upside is somewhat higher, maybe 25p . . . . so, today's 5p is looking rather unloved. Oil could take 2-3 years to recover but few Oilco's will be investing in new-drilling, so the known finds should increase in value as the spot-price hardens.
China / India and elsewhere are all wanting "More" and that probably means oil-based.,,,, er, FWIW.
Alternative views?
EDIT (1July2015)- Looks like Crystal Amber is banking on HUR delivering a good profit from N.Sea/Shetlands provided Oil remains above USD40/b.... and one wonders if NOP will do similar IF the Oil-price were to rise.... which surely it must with all the demands for Energy.
EDIT(2Dec2015)- Rights/Open Offer at 3p - yet sp is below that today. Oh dear.
EDIT(3Oct2016)- down 37% on what reads like reduced Losses ( maybe the word L-- caused it?). sp 1.81 . . . . Oh really? Doesn't look like we'll see any improvement, soon.

2015 AGM with the CEO Keith Bush: click here

Northern Petroleum - Italian environmental impact assessment approvals

click here

http://www.shareprophets.com/views/23890/exclusive-northern-petroleum-argentine-unit-heading-for-bankruptcy-court-when-was-it-going-to-tell-investors

Didnt know there was one.

MaxK - I scanned NOP's recent-RNS and can find no reference to Argentina - I know they had/have a small stake in the North of S-America ( alongside other World OilCo's)..... is this (re yr Link 20 Sept2016) why NOP sp has been so very low of late?

After the current (Dec16) 3.5p fundraising . . . will it become OK again, I wonder....?