why on earth has this exciting pharma company been ignored her for the last 3.5 years? ...... lots has happened in that time, generally for the better on the longer view ..... from a purely chart point of view, the 200 mda is rising quite steadily, with sp recovering well after a sharp fall, and now, after a brief tease below, is therefore probably worth buying on that basis alone.

From memory, Shares mag was also quite excited about this stock a week or two back, even though that medium has supported some classic stinkers in its time

Hola! Just sent you a mail, in case you haven't seen.

Soul.

Hola! ... what's that????? ..... "Guten Abend," meinst du

LOL - richtig! Just trying to impress with my linguistic versatility :o)

PS, not sure about SHP as I haven't looked recently, but it seems to be a lot more mobile than juniors such as IOV, VER, PLE, etc.

SHP is a genuine and "proper" company

Anyhoo, got to switch off this PC at last and do some serious telly-watching. Blame Silvermede for shackling me to my computer for too long !!

SHP is a genuine and "proper" company

not a shell? disappointing . . . .

I will attempt to do you the honour of looking into it tomorrow (but am currently a little "researched out" at the mo and may just stick to spending all day watching SOLA and GOL rise and SEO plummet :o))

Tschuss, bis dann!!

sp has been very lively in the last few days ..... there are some thoughts that SHP could be a t/o target, but have also picked up .....



Specialty pharma group Shire should find out today whether US medicine regulator have granted marketing approval for its new drug to treat hyperactivity, and the ruling is likely to have major impact on the company's share price.

Currently referred to as NRP-104, analysts expect the drug be a major profit driver for Shire in the next few years. Sales are seen topping 1 bln usd within two years of its launch, forecast for next year.

The Food and Drug Administration is due to deliver its opinion today. Most observers are anticipating an 'approvable letter', whereby the FDA extends its review to iron out remaining issues.



If very lucky, will not only get that good news, but also a bid approach

hmm! ..... have seen no announcement of any kind, which is slightly strange and perhaps of concern ..... let's see if w/e throws up anything .... at least it will be an FDA-generated announcement, so any utterances will have to be passed on, whether good or bad.

for the record, i noted two large buys of 110k and 550k at the last knocking yesterday .... that's quite hefty money

i feel like the lone ranger, or is it a prophet in my own land? ...... expect some very lively action on this share, and arguably it even increases the company's desirability axs a t/o target.



Specialty pharma group Shire PLC said its collaborative partner New River Pharmaceuticals Inc has received an approvable letter from the US Food and Drug Administration for NRP104 (lisdexamfetamine dimesylate), for the treatment of pediatric Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD).

A statement from Shire said the result is generally consistent with historical responses from FDA following their review of New Drug Applications for ADHD medications.

According to the FDA's letter, marketing approval of NRP104 is contingent upon final scheduling by the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).

No additional studies have been requested by the FDA as a condition for approval of NRP104, it added.

Shire and New River will continue dialog with FDA officials to agree upon a final trade name. Shire and New River Pharmaceuticals are preparing for a product launch in Q2 2007, pending final labelling and scheduling discussions.

'This approvable letter for NRP104 is positive news for Shire and our partner New River Pharmaceuticals,' said Shire chief executive Matthew Emmens.

Cannot believe this share is of no interest to any of you guys ...... +130 today to about 1000, and while there may some profit taking (hope so!), still plenty of upside, with just the chance that the company will get eaten up by one of the giants

1050p tomorrow is my guess,please dyor,but this momentum might continue just like corus i hope.

originally took profit, but bought back in this morning ...... this has to be a winner, which is more than one can say for so many of the "scallywag" stocks like GOO and CHP and VOG and SEY (we won't mention SEO!), all of which I also hold (not SEO!), on the basis that just perhaps one or two will come up with sweeties.

Perhaps time to revisit this "real" pharma company ...... Rumours have long circulated the market about consolidation in this sector, and SHP would certainly make a tasty morsel with its track record and pipeline ...... all time high was about 15.00 but that was in 2001 (I think), so probably of little relevance, except questionably to point to a possible buy-out level

gob and wallet have now joined up!

Cynic you are so funny sometimes, hows your pain threshold? still a good trade in my opinion.
good luck
regards

position is in the money, so at the mo, am a happy bunny (boiler) ...... to answer the question to which i think you allude ..... some stocks i hold a relatively long time; others i trade within a few weeks or even days

not only, as "stolen" from the Indie ...... Shire is expected to get the green light in a matter of days from US regulators to launch Mesavance, its biggest new drug in years ....... but the company is also a likely candidate for t/o at some time, perhaps sooner rather than later

sp rather gone to sleep ..... 200 dma left miles behind ... sp currently "teasing" just below 25 dma ..... rsi shows neutra/oversold ...... trend still steadily upwards



red = 25 dma
green = 50 dma

yet another quality stock that you guys seem to ignore ...... confess to feeling a bit like the prophet in his own land (only Cassandra alter ego when suggesting gloom and doom!) ..... top notch results just abnnounced ..... sp just heading north through 25 dma (potential resistance) ...... rsi neutral to o'sold .... company still a potential t/o target

will be interesting to see what the press and analysts make of these results, but i would hope (reasonably expect) that they are also very positive .... would be nice to see sp holding above that psychological 1100 level

Doing nicely again today Cynic. Could be those vague takeover rumours may have some imminent substance to them

Great news - to compensate (me) for the awful news on AZM: Vyvanse has been given FDA approval. The chart is just whizzing!

I think from now on it's dealing in CFDs for me, which is what I finally plucked up the courage to do with SHP - gives one very much more flexibility.

SHP figures towards bottom end of market forecasts so sp being whacked a bit ...... however, in recent days there has been the Phase III success of one of SHP's drugs and i daresay any weakness in sp might make the company even more tempting as a t/o target

It was a bit of a shock initially, I agree, but sp picking up now. Analyst meeting and webcast at 14:00 - will be interesting to hear what questions are raised.

is this worth buying now?

in my opinion, yes ...... SHP is a very well established and proven pharma company with real products

i've just bought - sp will pick up well - expect good profit on this one now

in fact easy money!

hard to justify the grumpy reaction by sp ..... prob mainly short term profit taking, though i suppose the CEO is not jumping up and won with excitement at the prospects - but all the better for it imo


Shire Pharmaceuticals Plc. posted first-quarter sales of $702 million, up 33 percent, and slightly ahead of expectations, with the company reaffirming its financial guidance for this year and predicting positive growth through to 2010.

Analysts' consensus in a Thomson poll was for sales of 700 million in the quarter.

Diluted EPS was 22.7 cents, compared with 21.3 cents in the previous year.

The company also said its Vyvanse ADHD product would generate sales at 'the lower end' of the $350 million to $400 million range.

Vyvanse achieved a 6.9 percent share of the U.S. ADHD market in the quarter, with sales of $54.4 million, the company said.

CEO Matthew Emmens said: 'It's been a good start to the year with sales growth from new and established products achieving our expectations.'

Emmens affirmed the company's previous financial guidance for the year and predicted positive revenue growth through to 2010.

is this worth buying now as its much lower since i last asked.....glad i didny buy at the time

SHP certain to be whacked open along with other pharmas due to "proposals will include average price cuts of about 5 percent for existing medicines, however this will be sweetened by assurances of more rapid and widespread uptake by the National Health Service of higher-priced new treatments".

not yet on view, but clearly from the reaction SHP's numbers were at lesat very satisfactory ...... this could really fly as the heavy short selling (surely, judging by recent sp movement) is forced to close

all looks pretty promising to me .......


Shire Ltd. upped its guidance for 2008 revenue growth be at least 20 percent above year ago-levels, as it delivered a 35 percent rise in second-quarter sales.

The biopharma company had earlier forecast full-year revenue growth in the mid to high teens.

CEO Angus Russell told a newswire conference the upgraded guidance reflected strong product sales in the first half and the momentum that this will carry into the second half. He cautioned that second-half comparisons would be more difficult because the products had done well in the same period in 2007.

Total sales for the June quarter came in at $776 million, with product sales rising 40 percent to $706 million. New product sales contributed $243 million, or 34 percent, of the total. The company reiterated its guidance that Vyvanse sales for the year would be at the lower end of a $350 million to $400 million scale.

Shire will also book costs of around $150 million to cover the discontinuation of its Dynepo kidney disease product. The company said the emergence of biosimilar generics have 'proved challenging' for Dynepo.

Overall spending on research and development will increase to $500 million, compared with guidance of $465 million to $490 million. This reflects the acquisition of its Metzym product and an increased research tempo for core products.

i rather like the look of the chart (see below), with sp now nudging above 200 dma and NY very strong indeed tonight.

having sold my IEC, i now have some reasonable funds in hand, and shall almost certainly have a dabble here in the morning .... i like the company anyway, and i would have thought that sooner or later it will be gobbled up anyway

very much against the trend, sp has been recovering sharply ..... certainly they had good figures, but i don't recollect any strong buy notes coming out and nor is there a new rns, so is this just a quality pharma being bought as a defensive stock or is there a predator in the wings?

volume no heavier than usual, but sp now +33 at 898 ...... no obvious reason, but chart is encouraging IF sp can break and hold above 200 dma

typical reaction to first class figures = selling on the news ..... i shall top up ....
please see edited (for those seemingly incapable of such, please learn!) comment from the chairman


"2008 saw excellent growth across the business. 2009 will see continued
momentum in our business as we drive growth in existing products, pursue
launches of new products and continue to develop our strong pipeline of drugs.
We reiterate the earnings guidance framework for 2009 published in our third
quarter earnings statement, and our aspiration of growing sales in the mid
teens range on average between 2009 and 2015. We look forward confidently to
the future."

"i shall top up" aka as I'd best average down!! Cynic the expert strikes again. Give us that list for some short ideas, cheers.

certainly seem to have called SHP wrong for the moment, but it's a seriously sound and solid company so shall prob stay with it ..... short suggestions? .... WOS, WPP and maybe ASC

SHp seriously sound and solid??? Nice waste of a big wad of cash on Renovo I do recall.

call it what you like .... you are fully entitled to your own opinion .... surprised you haven't shorted

kate ... you're turn to admit you're wrong!! - lol

today's announcement of collaboration with GSK is not only interesting in its own right, but just may be the start of the long slow dance towards ultimate merger ..... henc +40p at opening

Express says, "Shire said to be possible bid target" ...... might be true one day!

probably something of nothing, but SHP up 41p today, and just as interestingly, volume is already 3.75m+ vs an average of only 550k

volume finished at just over 5m

Results are due soon, which pressumably are expected to be good. Was considering an investment myself as a semi defensive play (being a pharma), which might also explain the rise, given the FTSE's performance of the last few weeks (e.g. maybe a turn in the wider market is being anticipated).

Just a thought....

Strawbs.

aren't you a bit late to be talking about "maybe a turn in the wider market is being anticipated"???!!!

to my mind, if it follows through, it is the massive volume linked to a strong sp performance which just may mean something more meaningful afoot than simple "semi-defensive plays" and anticipation of results

It appears to have rallied 11% a few weeks before results last year, on volume of about 6M, but maybe that's just a coincidence.....

Strawbs.

is that 6m over several weeks, or just in a day?

confess that am perhaps a bit too attached to this company, for i always feel sp should be performing much better than it does ..... one day it will be taken over, but maybe after i am dead!

Two days of around 6M back to back, if I'm reading the charts correctly. It rallied significantly more after the results of course, so plenty of upside potential if they match or exceed expectations. Not that anything can be taken as read in these markets though....

In my opinion...

Strawbs.

Last year.....

Strawbs.

looking back at the charts on page 1, i would very much like to see 200 dma firmly breached (about 880), for then there may be some sustained sp excitement

If they rally by as much as last year then it has to be a distinct possibility. I'll keep watching and may take the plunge if I can see a good entry point before results are out. If not I'll wait until after the results and then reappraise...

Still not convinced by the wider markets direction, but probably about time I stopped being lazy and looked for some good (semi defensive) plays....

Strawbs.

you have been saying the same since the bottom of the market 2(?) months ago, and no doubt you'll say the same as and when the market goes up another 1000 points or whatever.

markets by their nature are volatile, sometimes more so than others.
if you want to be safe, put your money in a building society

I still don't believe we're at the bottom yet, so I guess you'll have to put up with my opinion for another 1000 points (up or down)...... ;-)

Strawbs.

in that case, put money with mouth and go short

I don't have any mechanisms to do so. My investmenting has always been on the long side. Having explored SBs and CFDs I decided against them. I suppose that influences my decisions somewhat in respect of the markets.

Strawbs.

of course you do ..... you can take out a bog standard traded option through your broker ..... now what excuse?

Sorry. Don't know what that is, but will look into it now you've mentioned it and see if it's appropriate.

Strawbs.

of course you know what a traded option is - you're a sophisticated investor judging by your posts ..... scarcely some new-fangled derivative .... they've been around for the last 20/30 years and were always the way to hedge positions before the advent of CFDs and similar

Hmmm. Didn't think I was that sophisticated. Sorry to dissappoint you. I've only ever bought and sold equities, and the odd ETF. Are they the same as warrants? If not, then no I definetly haven't heard of them.

Strawbs.

Also, can they be used in a stocks and shares ISA?

If not then probably not appropriate.

Strawbs.

have no idea what rules govern ISAs, but traded options can certainly be used for shares and, i think, indices and probably commodities too

OK. Thanks. I'll take a look.

Strawbs.

well strawbs, by the time you decide to go short, the market may actually have topped, even if only briefly ...... sod's law of course is that whatever action you take, should you ever do so (why should i think that?), the timing will be all wrong anyway!

Yeah. Although I've missed out on a good part of the recent rally, I'm sure I would've been short and lost a packet at some point if able to, so money saved if not money made. That's why I never went SB's or CFD's. If you go long you can only lose your money, if you go short you can lose everything (given that upside is theoretically infinite, and downside only as far as 0). The further up things go of course, the less inclined I am to go long, because I still think we'll be coming back down again. I'll stick to my plan for now, although it may continue to annoy you.... ;-)

The plan (if you haven't seen it elsewhere), is to wait for the aftermath of the October crash.... By Christmas I expect to be buying, either late in the current rally, or after the latest collapse (if I'm right).

In my opinion..... :-)

Strawbs.

quite a while since SHP burst through 200 dma ..... unfortunately, almost each time it has failed to hold same ..... let's hope that this time is different!!

Shire announces reduced turnover but beats forecast
Business Financial Newswire
Shire Plc announced third quarter numbers above expectation as its new drug pipeline helped to offset delines seen from generic competition for Adderall its hyperactivity treatment.

Revenues fell from $779m to $667m but was ahead of the brokers consensus forecasts of $650m, so the market reacted positively and its share price was trading up 30p (3%) to 1054p.




Shire downgraded to hold from buy at Panmure Gordon, TP stays 1100p

Shares in Shire (Stuttgart: A0MMAG - news) jump 6.1 percent, the second biggest FTSE 100 (Euronext: VFTSE.NX - news) gainer , with the index up 1.0 percent, heading a strong pharmaceuticals sector as the firm's second-quarter results beat market expectations.

Shire, which makes expensive drugs to treat rare diseases -- such as Adderall XR for ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyper Disorder) -- posts a 14 percent rise in revenue and 26 percent rise in earnings thanks to "healthy growth" in the hyperactivity market in the United States.

"Strong set of earnings coupled with a dividend increase allows us to take the view (Shire) remains a value equity play with a strong pipeline," says Atif Latif, a director of Guardian Stockbrokers.

"The recent sell off into the results (after the generic version of Adderall XR being announced) was unjustified. This will also be pushed higher by short covering and we see these results being well received by the market," Latif adds.

Shire shares account for 2.6 points of the FTSE 100 index's 61 point rise, although the pharmaceuticals sector overall contributes over 10 points to that index total, with peers GlaxoSmithKline (Other OTC: GLAXF.PK - news) and AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN.L - news) also higher - up 0.5 percent and 0.9 percent respectively -- both rallying after recent falls following their Q2 results disappointments over the past week.

Volume in Shire shares rocketed to 107.26 percent of the 90-day daily average by 1330 GMT, taking off following the midday results release

Shire shares a picture of health

By Ben Martin | Telegraph




Drug maker Shire (Stuttgart: A0MMAG - news) looked a picture of health today as the prospect of a growing product pipeline pushed the shares higher.

The group climbed as much as 3.4pc in trading as analysts at Jefferies turned positive on the stock because “recent weakness offers an attractive entry-point”.

They upgraded their recommendation to “buy” from “hold”.

“We anticipate upcoming news to potentially boost expectations for Shire’s longer-term organic growth prospects,” they said, pointing to forthcoming test results for treatments for Hunter and Sanfilippo syndromes, among others.

The analysts added that they now saw fewer risks from generic competitors to the group’s attention deficit hyperactivity disorder drugs and reckoned the shares looked attractive, having fallen about 20pc since the start of the year. Shire closed up 10p at £18.05.

I have dithered on this one all morning and watched sp climb and climb ...... it's an excellent company, but hard to know how much of this rise just in HOPE of a t/o, which is always a dangerous road to follow

Takeover approach looking more of a distinct possibility....

AbbVie are reconsidering their offer for SHP and as a result, sp has slumped big time to just below the pre-bid level

on that basis, the brave may want to consider buying

i'm afraid the charts on this system are misbehaving as you will note from post 68!

Panmure Gordon comment:
"As expected, Abbvie terminates its offer for Shire, triggering the break fee of $1.64bn. Shire will likely re-commence its acquisition spree which should boost organic double digit growth to high teens over the long-term. With such growth, we believe the stock will trade at a premium to its peer and group and as such re-iterate our Buy recommendation.
It is possible that the loss of 4 months strategic direction may have damaged those plans. Key staff may have made their own exit plans (evidence by the exit yesterday of the interim CFO). However, Shire's rare diseases business remains an attractive asset and we expect Shire to have multiple suitors. Allergan has been mentioned, and GSK should also take an interest in Shire’s portfolio.
With a break fee of $1.6bn confirmed payable entirely at Shire's "sole and exclusive remedy for all losses and damages in connection with the transaction", Shire will at least be compensated somewhat. Investors will worry that Shire's defence plans are too ambitious. As part of its defence, Shire made a compelling case to grow its Revenue base of $10bn by 2020. For a company growing consistently in double digit range, the implied CAGR of 12-13% appears achievable. The company remains acquisitive and Lumena / Fibrotech (+any future ones like NPS, Cubist and/or Salix) should help growth."

Deutcshe Bank comment:
"Following a period of restriction, we are resuming research coverage of Shire with a BUY rating and a new target price (TP) of 4,550p per share. Despite the distractions of the merger process with AbbVie, the company continues to perform well: better-than expected 2Q results led to a FY guidance upgrade (to low/mid 30% EPS growth) and last night's press release confirmed that trading has "remained strong" since the end of 2Q. Furthermore we note that Shire will this year receive an additional $2bn cash ‘windfall’ from a combination of the AbbVie break fee and a Canadian tax settlement. Against this, we now assume a 12-18 month delay to US launch of adult ADHD drug SHP465 (to 2H16), reflecting additional FDA clinical requirements. Our fine-tuned EPS estimates are shown below, although we highlight that these are likely to be adjusted further following the publication of 3Q results on Friday 24 October.
One week prior to AbbVie's interest in Shire becoming public, we published a 38-page report assessing Shire's longer-term prospects ("Pipeline optionality not reflected in shares; forecasts and TP lifted", 9 June 2014). In this we set out why we believe the company’s pipeline could deliver non-risk-adjusted revenues of greater than $4bn pa, equivalent to 70% on top of the current sales base. Consequently - and likely supplemented by business development deals - we continue to expect Shire to deliver double-digit EPS growth over the medium/long term (EPS CAGR 2013-18E: 17%). We further note that the forecasts in our pipeline report were consistent with those later published by Shire in its long-range plan ("the path to $10bn in product sales by 2020").
Our TP is derived by applying a 20x PE (unchanged) to 2015E non-GAAP EPS (using $ £ 1.62; previously 1.68). This PE is arrived at by comparison with a group of fast growing mid-cap pharma companies and reflects our confidence in the sustainability of growth. In support of this, our DCF indicates a similar (higher) value/share (greater than 4,900p). Risks relate to sales trends for key brands, R&D news, rare disease competition and Lialda patent challenges (note: Shire averted the threat of early generics to Vyvanse via its litigation win in June).

Shire to announce third quarter 2014 results
Dublin, Ireland - 21st October, 2014 - Shire plc (LSE: SHP, NASDAQ: SHPG) will announce third quarter 2014 earnings on Friday 24th October, 2014.

Strong bounce on good quarterly results.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4910447

and through 200 dma at that

Tell you what Cynic lets trash this thread now like you and the boys have trashed the chart thread, lets all have a bit of fun.........

aldwickk View aldwickk's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:21 - 2232 of 2235

Been headhunted aswel Zak Mir ...Tips TV, Jim Mellon....T1PS, Tom Winnifrith......shareprophets/Clem Chambers, iii have all asked if I was available to do a piece/column for them.

Under what name ? You have so many to choose from
goldfinger Send an email to goldfinger View goldfinger's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:29 - 2233 of 2235 edit this post

Whats your point alders?
doodlebug4 - 24 Oct 2014 12:32 - 2234 of 2235

Lol, aldwickk! That's a very good point - rumour is that it's going to be WalterMitty.
cynic Send an email to cynic View cynic's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:42 - 2235 of 2235

i like dd4 .... let's hope sticky doesn't get the hump at that jolly jape

looks like a very subdued day all round .... i suspect ev dow will be range bound between about 16,600 and 16,700, or 16,750 at a push

Tell you what Cynic lets trash this thread now like you and the boys have trashed the chart thread, lets all have a bit of fun.........

aldwickk View aldwickk's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:21 - 2232 of 2235

Been headhunted aswel Zak Mir ...Tips TV, Jim Mellon....T1PS, Tom Winnifrith......shareprophets/Clem Chambers, iii have all asked if I was available to do a piece/column for them.

Under what name ? You have so many to choose from
goldfinger Send an email to goldfinger View goldfinger's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:29 - 2233 of 2235 edit this post

Whats your point alders?
doodlebug4 - 24 Oct 2014 12:32 - 2234 of 2235

Lol, aldwickk! That's a very good point - rumour is that it's going to be WalterMitty.
cynic Send an email to cynic View cynic's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:42 - 2235 of 2235

i like dd4 .... let's hope sticky doesn't get the hump at that jolly jape

looks like a very subdued day all round .... i suspect ev dow will be range bound between about 16,600 and 16,700, or 16,750 at a push

Tell you what Cynic lets trash this thread now like you and the boys have trashed the chart thread, lets all have a bit of fun.........

aldwickk View aldwickk's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:21 - 2232 of 2235

Been headhunted aswel Zak Mir ...Tips TV, Jim Mellon....T1PS, Tom Winnifrith......shareprophets/Clem Chambers, iii have all asked if I was available to do a piece/column for them.

Under what name ? You have so many to choose from
goldfinger Send an email to goldfinger View goldfinger's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:29 - 2233 of 2235 edit this post

Whats your point alders?
doodlebug4 - 24 Oct 2014 12:32 - 2234 of 2235

Lol, aldwickk! That's a very good point - rumour is that it's going to be WalterMitty.
cynic Send an email to cynic View cynic's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:42 - 2235 of 2235

i like dd4 .... let's hope sticky doesn't get the hump at that jolly jape

looks like a very subdued day all round .... i suspect ev dow will be range bound between about 16,600 and 16,700, or 16,750 at a push

Deutsche Bank note today:
"Re-focusing on exciting independent growth potential; reaffirm BUY
Shire's independent future is an exciting one, in our opinion. Its goal of market leadership in rare diseases, coupled with strong current momentum (evidenced by raised guidance for "high thirty percent" EPS growth this year) and a pipeline that could deliver peak sales of circa $4bn pa, by our estimates, point to a stock that is undervalued on just 16x 2015E EPS - a multiple in-line with slower-growing large cap pharma. With the biggest mid-term risk to earnings removed (as a result of the Vyvanse patent win), we lift our TP and reaffirm our BUY rating.
3Q highlights strong current momentum; high 30% FY EPS growth expected.
Despite the potential distractions in the quarter, Shire delivered exceptional 3Q results (sales/EPS up 32%/60%) and lifted its FY EPS growth guidance to the “high thirty percent range” (implying c.5% consensus EPS upgrades, assuming market forecasts reflected prior guidance for low/mid 30% growth). While the launch of Intuniv generics would slightly crimp 2015, we lift our EPS forecasts by 4-6% pa and now expect an EPS CAGR to 2018E of 18% (was 17%).
Reiterating pipeline optionality ahead of R&D day on 10 December
In this report, we update our commentary on Shire’s new drug pipeline which, by our estimates, includes a potential blockbuster (lifitegrast for dry eye disease) plus six drugs with sales potential of $0.5bn pa or greater. In aggregate, we calculate that drugs/indications to be launched by 2018 have a peak sales potential of c.$4bn pa, with an additional $1bn+ potentially coming from the introduction around 2019 of two rare disease programs (Sanfilippo A, MLD). Supported by initial launch sales from this portfolio, we note that our forecasts are broadly consistent with the “10x20” program unveiled by Shire in June under which it targets sales of $6.5bn by 2016 and $10bn by 2020. We expect to hear more at an R&D day for analysts and investors on 10 December.
Valuation & risks: Buy, TP raised to 4,850p (from 4,550p)
Our new TP is derived by applying a 20x multiple (unchanged) to 2015E non-GAAP EPS. This multiple is arrived at by comparison with a group of fast-growing mid-cap pharma companies and reflects our confidence in the sustainability of growth. In support of this, our DCF indicates a somewhat higher value/share ( 5,500p). Risks relate to sales trends for key brands, pipeline news, rare disease competition and Lialda patent challenges."

Above the 200 and looking strong.

StockMarketWire.com
Berenberg Bank retains hold on Shire, target increased to 4,100p from 3,400p.

What do the brokers know???
My first target is 4600p. Sp currently 4439p.

StockMarketWire.com
Shire has announced plans to relocate over 500 positions to Massachusetts from its Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania, site and establish Lexington, Massachusetts, as the company's US operational headquarters.

The transition is a continuation of the company's `One Shire' efficiency programme and will streamline business globally through two principal locations - Massachusetts and Switzerland - with support from a limited number of regional and country-based offices around the world.

StockMarketWire.com
Morgan Stanley reiterates overweight on Shire, target raised from 4700p to 5200p.

StockMarketWire.com
Shire Pharmaceuticals today announced that the companies have entered into a merger agreement pursuant to which Shire will acquire all the outstanding shares of NPS Pharma for $46.00 a share in cash, for a total consideration of approximately $5.2bn.

Shire will accelerate the growth of NPS Pharma's innovative portfolio through its market expertise in gastrointestinal (GI) disorders, core capabilities in rare disease patient management, and global footprint.

The transaction has been approved unanimously by the Boards of Directors of both Shire and NPS Pharma.

NPS Pharma is a rare disease-focused biopharmaceutical company and its first product, GATTEX/REVESTIVE (teduglutide [rDNA origin]) for injection, is approved in the US and Europe to treat adults with short bowel syndrome (SBS) who are dependent on parenteral support. NPS Pharma also has a registration phase product, NATPARA/NATPAR (rhPTH [1-84]) for the treatment of hypoparathyroidism (HPT).

The $46.00 per share price in the transaction represents a 51% premium to NPS Pharma's unaffected share price of $30.47 on December 16, 2014.

Shire CEO Flemming Ornskov commented:

"The acquisition of NPS Pharma is a significant step in advancing Shire's strategy to become a leading biotechnology company. With our global strength and expertise in both rare diseases and GI, Shire is uniquely positioned to drive the continued success of GATTEX/REVESTIVE, and, if approved, commercialize NPS Pharma's pipeline compound NATPARA/NATPAR.

"We look forward to accelerating the growth of the NPS Pharma portfolio based on our proven track record of maximizing value from acquired assets and commercial execution. The NPS Pharma organization will be a welcome addition to Shire as we continue to help transform the lives of patients with rare diseases."

Feb 13:

Credit Suisse 5000p Neutral
Barclays... 5000p Equal weigh
Kepler... 5300p Buy
Jefferies... 5800p Buy
Deutsche Bank 5700p Buy

The headline says: Exclusive

SP down as Shire proposes combining with Baxalta

Guardian comment:
The old wisdom said hostile deals don’t work in
the world of cutting-edge pharmaceutical research
because successful science requires willing partners.
In the current bid-a-week biotech bonanza, such niceties
can be thrown out of the window, it seems. Shire, the
Dublin-based and London-listed outfit, has gone hostile
with an all-share $30bn approach to US group Baxalta
after being given the cold shoulder by a company spun
out of former parent Baxter only last month. “You have
left us with no choice but to make our proposal known
to your shareholders,” wrote Flemming Ornskov,
Shire’s chief executive and chief-deal-doer, to his Baxalta counterpart.
No choice? In today’s biotech world, that is indeed the thinking.
The sector is awash with mergers and acquisitions and all are
obliged to play..

Aug 18: JP Morgan: Overweight - TP: 6600p

Cantor Fitzgerald today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Shire PLC (LON:SHP) and raised its price target to 6300p (from 5900p).

Exane BNP Paribas today reaffirms its outperform investment rating on Shire PLC (LON:SHP) and set its price target at 5900p

don't we all wish we'ld bought this one recently, though you'ld have been very brave to have done so if you look at the chart .....

Shire shares rocket as Japan’s Takeda considers offer
Japan’s Takeda Pharmaceutical said on Wednesday that it is “considering making an approach” to buy Shire, the Irish drugmaker.
Takeda said its consideration is still “at a preliminary and exploratory stage and no approach has been made to the board of Shire.” Shire shares in London surged by more than a fifth on the news, valuing the group’s equity at roughly £34.9bn.

SHP
likely to open about 25% higher as takeda table new and recommended bid at £49

LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) - Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502.T) agreed to buy London-listed Shire (SHP.L) for 45.3 billion pounds on Tuesday after the Japanese company raised the amount of cash in its offer to secure a recommendation.

The deal — assuming it wins the backing of shareholders — will be the largest overseas acquisition by a Japanese company and propel Takeda, led by Frenchman Christophe Weber, into the top ranks of global drugmakers.

The tie-up is one of the largest ever in the pharmaceuticals sector, crowning a hectic few months of deal-making as big drugmakers look to improve their pipelines by bringing in promising medicines developed by younger companies.

The enlarged group will be a leader in treatments in gastroenterology, neuroscience, oncology, rare diseases and blood-derived therapies, used for serious conditions such as haemophilia.

The agreement came on the last day for Takeda to make a firm bid. Shire had rejected four previous offers, due to price concerns and the fact that the Japanese company is proposing to pay for much of the acquisition in stock.

The final deal is approximately 46 percent cash and 54 percent stock, leaving Shire shareholders owning around half of the combined group.

Shire investors will receive $30.33 in cash and either 0.839 new Takeda shares or 1.678 Takeda American depositary shares for each share, the companies said, valuing the offer at 48.17 pounds a share based on the latest price and exchange rate.

Shire’s shares, which had been trading about 10 pounds below the value of Takeda’s offer, traded 4 percent higher at just over 40 pounds, still well under the agreed price and indicating that shareholders still have reservations.

Jefferies analysts said they expected the shares to trade at a relatively wide discount to the offer, given the large stock component and the fact that the deal is not expected to close until the first half of 2019.

Although the deal must get the support of 75 percent of Shire’s voting shareholders, some of whom do not want to hold Takeda paper, Weber told reporters he believed investors would back the transaction.