dai oldenrich
- 03 Oct 2006 10:12
Tullow Oil plc is one of the largest independent oil and gas, exploration and production companies in Europe. Tullow Oil produces over 56,000 boepd, with a primary focus on UK Gas and West African Oil, underpinned by development projects in the UK, Africa and South Asia.

Red = 25 day moving average. Green = 200 day moving average.
dai oldenrich
- 03 Oct 2006 10:12
- 2 of 177
cynic
- 03 Oct 2006 10:53
- 3 of 177
Have already posted my endorsement of this company on another TLW thread.
There are some who question the logic and/or price TLW paid for HRD, but the consensus seems to be that there is a much better than even chance that this will prove to have been a smart move ...... BUY
Confidant
- 03 Oct 2006 11:56
- 4 of 177
Watch the spot gas price --- currently -4p a therm YES MINUS. They are paying for it to be taken away. Implications for others too but not great for TLW
This may slow TLW but agree HRD purchase looks fine suggests upside to Uganda they just have the problem of getting it out of there
cynic
- 03 Oct 2006 16:33
- 5 of 177
seemingly, since TLW are acquiring Hardman (HNR?), they will then be big enough to join FTSE 100 on the next rotation ..... Another reason to buy!
seawallwalker
- 03 Oct 2006 16:35
- 6 of 177
Tullow shut in some gas fields last spring, I have not seen any news of them reopening them.
Hopefully they have not.
cynic
- 18 Oct 2006 11:21
- 7 of 177
my chartist friend tells me that 397 is/was an important resistance ...... TLW has tried and failed to break through it 3 times previously, and today is the 4th ..... this may well be a good time to buy, and at least one is buying something of proven quality! ...... that said, i think the RSI is a bit toppy at about 70.
have i put my money there? ...... yes, in a fairly modest way
seawallwalker
- 21 Oct 2006 16:08
- 8 of 177
cynic - me too.
I have also bought a few Hardman at 82p because assuming the t/o goes through, and it looks like it will, I will get 0.222890 Tullow shares per Hardman shares assuming I get a full quota.
Should Kingfisher become a significant find before then, and Tullow seem very excited about Uganda recently, if Aigrette comes in with gas and provided the vote is carried for the t/o, it could work out a darn site more value per share than 4.08 which is today's closing price for Tullow.
Tullow is also a good oil stock to hold as the currently produce 50kbopd, with a view without Hardman of producing 60kbopd by year end.
So add 12% (more or less).
Now you can see why I am not bothering with Sterling till they have a go in Madagascar?
No need.
seawallwalker
- 21 Oct 2006 21:42
- 9 of 177
Posted by WShak on TMF.
This was a result of an analyst presentation in Dublin yesterday(Thursday)
"Tullow held an analyst presentation yesterday focussed on their exploration strategy, organisation and opportunities. It provided more depth and detail to the four play categorisation first elucidated at their interim presentation, and covered in our note Focus on Exploration on September 12th. We were struck by the high level of activity in the exploration team. Part of this is to redress the gap that Tullow has traditionally had a weaker reputation in exploration than it enjoys in production.
The conference was about a lot more than Uganda, but there was obviously going to be a lot of interest in the drilling campaign, which continues to shape up well. In our view investors have still not caught up with the enthusiasm in the company. The Kingfisher well, the fourth consecutive discovery, had been announced as a success before the conference and there was little direct new news. But we have the clear impression that Tullow are moving forward with a confidence beyond that which has been publicly announced. Is this premature? We don't think so. In other areas Tullow tends to the cautious side (production targets, financial structure), and Kingfisher ticks the four basic requirements for a working reservoir (trap, seal, hydrocarbon charge and flowability).
The remaining issue is the scale, and Manu Wope, the exploration manager for South and East Africa, appeared confident and mentioned three elephant fields at Kingfisher, Pelican and Ngassa. The confirmation of oil above the target depth not only reduces risk on the target itself in Kingfisher, but also for Ngassa, which will probably be drilled late in 2007.
Tullow is undertaking significant additional seismic activity to enhance their understanding of the opportunities. This is not just across all three blocks in Uganda, but also in Madagascar and Tanzania (Hardman) and in other regions. Tullow was keen to stress the potential read-across from Uganda to Madagascar, further south along the E. African rift.
We are surprised that, at a time when there is so much activity and opportunity on which to focus in Uganda, Tullow is so aggressive in accelerating potential elsewhere.
The strong pipeline should allow it to pace for a marathon instead it is running at a sprint, with the risk of stretch on resources. We think we may understand why and suggest that Tullow could be worried that as its consolidation with Hardman settles and the scale of Uganda becomes clearer in 2007, they may themselves become a clearer acquisition target. Worse, unless Tullow can show some active evidence of the potential from other high impact opportunities, the focus of the bid on Uganda will pass the value in other areas to the new shareholders. When I proposed this interpretation to one of the management team, he confirmed the logic of that strategic assessment .
Our conclusion. Tullow does not have the tests let alone proof at this stage of the scale of discovery in Uganda. But their actions and behaviour (and nobody has a better view than they do) are fully consistent with genuine and directed excitement. Uganda could indeed be a transformational discovery beyond the size of Tullow at its present scale. Tullow look to be on the edge of a seismic shift not only in their exploration but also in their corporate scale and ultimate structure.
and
Goodbodys
Tullow (Add, Closing Price 3.93)
Analyst Day.
Analyst: Gerry Hennigan
Tullow's analyst day in Dublin focussed on exploration activity across all the regions of current interest and while detailed in terms of information, there was limited additional newsflow beyond that previously provided. That said, portfolio expansion was a central theme and Tullow clearly intends to further its growth in a controlled manner. A summary, by region, of relevant prospects, etc. to be drilled prior to the end of 2007 includes: (i) UK (North Sea) - two wells to drill prior to year end, a further four to five next year, and results from the 24th licensing round in the North Sea pending; (ii) Hardman Area (Mauritania and South America) - eight to ten prospects to be drilled in Mauritania with a further four wells planned for Guyane and Suriname combined; (iii) West Africa (Cote D'Ivoire, Ghana, Gabon, Angola) - eight wells planned, eight farm-ins under review, three new blocks to be announced (two of which are imminent), and actively pursuing licensing rounds; (iv) South & East Africa - (Uganda, Namibia, Madagascar) - one well ongoing (Kingfisher), three planned (Nzizi in Uganda, and two appraisal wells in Kudu) with the potential of further prospects in Uganda to be drilled post the processing of seismic in H1 2007; and (v) South East Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) - two wells planned for Kohat in Pakistan and up to four in India on the CB-ON-1 licence (south of the Cairn field). At a corporate level the clear message was a focus on core strengths and inherent expertise in certain geological 'plays'. The intention is to leverage that capability to expand beyond the current scope of operations, with as many as 170 potential prospects according to management. The roadmap, in our view, points to a belief within the company that it is now of sufficient size and expertise (50 geologists and geophysicists) to enable it to seek new opportunities in areas such as Mainland Europe (Netherlands, Norway, etc.), South America and South East Asia (Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, etc.). As such management has raised the 'bar' on its ambitions and outlined its objective towards extending its growth, which we believe will be both through organic development and further acquisitions."
Pretty convincing stuff here.
cynic
- 06 Nov 2006 16:53
- 10 of 177
TLW was on the bubble today, and now you know why ......
" Tullow Oil PLC said Heritage Oil, the operator of the Kingfisher-1 exploration well in Uganda -- in which Tullow is a 50 pct partner -- reported a test flow of 4,120 barrels of oil per day.
Tony Buckingham, Heritage's CEO said: 'The Albert Basin now looks increasingly like it has the elements to make it a world-class petroleum basin. The flow rates, even constrained by available completion and test facilities, far exceeded our expectations.'
The Kingfisher prospect is a very large structural high that is expressed at surface on the bed of Lake Albert. Seismic data indicate the Kingfisher prospect has an extent of up to 70 square kilometres."
That sp has also surged through 397 resistance will give additional impetus as chartists also jump in.
seawallwalker
- 06 Nov 2006 17:18
- 11 of 177
Great result from Kingfisher.
A very good rflow rate from a previously unknown target.
The rapid buying of blocks oppsite in the DRC arewa bit of a clue that this could be mahusive for Tullow, (and me).
DYOR I did and I'm still buying.
seawallwalker
- 14 Nov 2006 07:13
- 12 of 177
Have another one..........
News release
Tullow Oil plc - Nzizi-1 Exploration Well Update
13 November 2006 -Hardman Resources, the operator of the Nzizi-1 exploration
well in Uganda, in which Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) is a 50% partner, today issued
the following press release.
UGANDA: Exploration Area 2 Nzizi-1 Exploration/Appraisal Well
Since Hardman's last report, Nzizi-1 has been drilled to a total depth of 1,065
metres in a 6 3/4' hole. As at midnight on 13 November, wireline logs were
being run after having encountered oil shows across the target intervals.
Nzizi-1 is testing a structure up-dip of the Mputa discovery and was designed to
evaluate the equivalent oil bearing reservoirs intersected in the Mputa
structure. Nzizi-1 is situated approximately 5.5 kilometres to the southwest of
Mputa-2 appraisal well.
seawallwalker
- 14 Nov 2006 08:26
- 13 of 177
Just harping back to this RNS issued last week.
07/11/2006
7 November 2006 Hardman Resources, today issued the following drilling update on the Nzizi Exploration/Appraisal well in Uganda in which Tullow is a 50% partner.
Hardman Resources Limited (Hardman) provides the following update on its drilling activities:
UGANDA: Exploration Area 2 Nzizi-1 Exploration/Appraisal Well
At 2:00pm on 3 November 2006, the Nzizi-1 well was spudded in Exploration Area 2, Uganda, using the Eagle Drill-1 rig.
The well has been drilled to a depth of 358 metres in the 9 7/8 inch section and casing has been run. As at midnight 5 November, the operation was preparing to set the blow out preventer (BOP), following which the well will be drilled ahead to total depth of 1,030 metres.
Nzizi-1 will test a structure up-dip of the recent Mputa discovery. The well is designed to evaluate the equivalent oil bearing reservoirs intersected in the Mputa structure. Nzizi-1 is situated approximately 5.5 kilometres to the southwest of Mputa-2 appraisal well.
Any thoughts anyone?
cynic
- 14 Nov 2006 08:47
- 14 of 177
i think TLW is a damn good share with plenty of upside regardless of what this latest rns may or may not imply
seawallwalker
- 14 Nov 2006 08:48
- 15 of 177
Good morning cynic.
I agree.
seawallwalker
- 16 Nov 2006 06:56
- 16 of 177
http://www.hdr.com.au/documents/news/00514_ASX%2016%20Nov%20-%20Nzizi%20Drilling%20Update%20and%20Chinguetti%20Reserves.pdf
"Exploration Area 2: Nzizi-1
Since the last report on the Nzizi-1 well, logging operations have been completed and pressure
measurements taken.
Good oil shows were encountered during drilling over a gross interval of approximately 180
metres, directly above basement, in a similar section to that encountered by the Mputa-1 well, 6
kilometres northeast of Nzizi-1.
Wireline logs and pressure measurements indicate an interbedded sequence of oil bearing
sands and shales. No fluid samples or testing operations were planned for this well as it was
drilled in a slimhole configuration and consequently it will now be plugged and abandoned.
seawallwalker
- 18 Dec 2006 07:58
- 17 of 177
poo bear
- 09 Jan 2007 12:16
- 18 of 177
"UGANDA thinks that it and neighboring countries have discovered oil deposits large enough to rival those of some of the world's greatest petroleum producers, according to Uganda's Energy and Mineral Development Minister Daudi Migereko......"
The item is a good overview.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01092007/business/oil_find_in_uganda_may_change_game_business_john_crudele.htm
Pinched from O&G board - ManSiarad was the poster.
cynic
- 09 Jan 2007 12:58
- 19 of 177
an interesting article, but hidden in there ...... Much of this could be wishful thinking. ..... says it all!!
meanwhile TLW, along with the rest of the oil sector, is struggling with a (comparatively) low crude price ...... however, i am more than happy to keep holding them, along with the mariginally more speccy BUR, as in the fullness of time (6/12 months?), i am sure there will be plenty of upward scope
seawallwalker
- 09 Jan 2007 18:54
- 20 of 177
Well we broke through the 200 day ma convincingly, so where will it stop?
cynic
- 09 Jan 2007 20:45
- 21 of 177
about 350 is my guess .... looks to be support there ...... crude continues to plummet, but as a quality stock and one that may even prove to be a t/o target, i think i shall stay with it
seawallwalker
- 15 Jan 2007 07:24
- 22 of 177
Latest Kingfisher -1 report.
......Kingfisher-1A well has been successfully cased to 2,502 metres and drilled to a depth of 2,962 metres.
New drilling in the deeper section has encountered three additional potential
oil-bearing zones totalling approximately 40 metres between 2,260 and 2,370
metres, evidenced by wireline logging and formation pressure testing. Planned
testing of these zones will follow completion of drilling, to a target depth of
between 3,000 and 4,000 metres, which it is estimated will take up to a further
45 days. Test equipment has remained on site in readiness for the testing..........."
cynic
- 15 Jan 2007 08:12
- 23 of 177
now fingers crossed that sp can hold or even improve on this level
seawallwalker
- 15 Jan 2007 14:47
- 24 of 177
cynic is the crossing of the lines, if it happens, called a golden cross?
seawallwalker
- 15 Jan 2007 14:48
- 25 of 177
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS - news) has resumed coverage of Tullow Oil (Dublin: TQW.IR - news) , appending an overweight recommendation and a 450p target.
and
http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/item.do?newsId=38534446586491
Tullow Oil shares were also in fine fettle, adding 22 pence to 398 on news it had found hydrocarbons at the Kingfisher-1A well...
In response, Merrill Lynch reiterated its 'buy' advice on the UK oil group and said it has increased its net asset value (NAV) by a conservative 32 pence a share to 428 to reflect this news, while recognising a further material Ugandan NAV increase is likely in the coming months as Tullow conducts further appraisal work on its five discoveries.
The broker said it believes this work will likely both materially increase existing Ugandan reserve estimates and further de-risk the company's large inventory of un-drilled Lake Albertine leads and prospects.
The broker added it has raised its price target on Tullow to 470 pence.
cynic
- 15 Jan 2007 14:49
- 26 of 177
not in this instance .... golden cross is when both 50 and 200 dma (typically) are on upward trend ..... whoops .... will post chart with 50+ 200 .... above is 25 + 200.
seawallwalker
- 15 Jan 2007 14:56
- 28 of 177
thank you
happy
- 17 Feb 2007 08:51
- 29 of 177
Tullow upgraded to "buy"
Friday, February 16, 2007
Goodbody Stockbrokers
LONDON, February 16 (newratings.com) - Analyst Gerry Hennigan of Goodbody Stockbrokers upgrades Tullow (TLW.ISE) from "add" to "buy." The target price has been raised from 425p to 460p.
In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the companys FY06 pre-close statement indicates that earnings are likely to be 12% higher than was earlier expected. Tullows FY07 total NAV estimate has been raised by 11%, the analyst says. The Hardman deal has lead to an increase in the companys exploration portfolio.
seawallwalker
- 01 Mar 2007 07:19
- 30 of 177
Tullow Oil PLC
01 March 2007
News release
Tullow Oil Plc - Kingfisher-1 Well Test Results
1 March 2007 - Heritage Oil, the operator of the Kingfisher-1 exploration well
in Uganda, in which Tullow Oil plc ('Tullow') is a 50% partner, today issued the
following press release:
Calgary, Alberta, March 1, 2007 - Heritage Oil Corporation (TSX: HOC) today
announced final results from the successful testing of all three intervals in
the deeper horizon of the Kingfisher-1A well in Block 3A, Uganda. The three
intervals tested, from between 2,260m to 2,367m, had a total net productive
thickness of 44 metres and produced at a cumulative maximum flow rate of 9,773
bopd. Additionally, the test of the shallower interval reported in November 2006
produced at a rate of 4,120 bopd, resulting in an overall cumulative maximum
flow rate of 13,893 bopd from the Kingfisher well. The tests may be summarised
as follows:
Depth Interval thickness Production Oil quality Flowing well head
pressure
(metres) (metres) (bopd) (API) (psig)
Deeper intervals
2,344 21 2,965 32 240
2,290 12 2,254 31 157
2,260 11 4,554 32 360
44 9,773
Shallower interval*
1,783 10 4,120 30 221
Total 54 13,893
* Test undertaken in November 2006
The oil is good quality light (between 30degrees and 32degrees API) and sweet
with a low gas-oil ratio and some associated wax. All of the above production
flow rates were conducted through a one inch choke. The reservoirs are
sandstones which have high permeability up to 2,300 milliDarcies.
The Kingfisher prospect is a very large structural high that is expressed at
surface on the bed of Lake Albert. Seismic data indicates an areal extent of up
to 70 square kilometres for the Kingfisher prospect. This first exploration well
only investigated a limited part of this large structure and did not reach the
deepest objectives.
Heritage is operator of and holds a 50% interest in Blocks 3A and 1 in Uganda,
and has a 39.5% interest in Blocks 1 and 2 in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The total gross size of these holdings is in excess of 12,000 square kilometres
and they occupy a very substantial part of the Albert Basin. Heritage's partner
in these blocks is Tullow Oil. A map of the licenses, and the potential targets
in Block 3A, is available on Heritage's website (www.heritageoilcorp.com).
Looking forward to future Uganda work programs, Heritage has contracted to
acquire two seismic surveys this year; a circa 325 square kilometre 3D program
over the Kingfisher and Pelican structures in Block 3A and a circa 500 kilometre
2D survey in Block 1. Further drilling of the Kingfisher prospect will commence
following the acquisition and interpretation of the 3D seismic survey. Efforts
are currently being made to identify and secure a higher capacity rig capable of
deeper drilling in order to explore the deepest objectives not penetrated by the
Kingfisher well. In addition, initial plans are being developed to drill the
offshore Pelican prospect next year.
Tony Buckingham, Heritage's CEO stated 'The cumulative flow rate of 13,893 bopd
from the Kingfisher well has surpassed our expectations. The test results
indicate the outstanding potential of the Kingfisher discovery; substantially
lowers the exploration risk of drilling other multiple targets in our licenses;
and is another step closer to future production and commercial viability.
Heritage is accelerating the work program to maximise the potential of what
could be a world-class petroleum basin. All five wells drilled in the Albert
Basin in the last 15 months have been oil discoveries, which we consider
exceptional for a virgin onshore hydrocarbon basin and Kingfisher is the second
well that has produced over 12,000 bopd under test. This is a very exciting time
for Heritage, as these licenses could transform this Company.'
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200703010702211034S
Time to fill your boots imo.
seawallwalker
- 08 Apr 2007 16:52
- 31 of 177
cynic
- 08 Apr 2007 17:21
- 32 of 177
i like TLW as a company, but until sp starts behaving shall not be back in .... as i mentioned elsewhere, the only thing of interest is whether or not sp is rising or falling or likely to move in a given direction .... at the moment TLW has stagnated
TheFrenchConnection
- 08 Apr 2007 17:45
- 33 of 177
d'accord ..Not unlike fellow midcap JKX,.l like TLW and have traded it several times but my interpretation of its current chart shows a stock softening a little despite 10, 50 and 200 day EMA suggesting a price of around 360/365 at best..... As for HDY it gets the nod .And my money !! . lt bounced between 290 and 320 for what seemed forever ;but methinks it has overcome that hurdle and will now come of age . Has high quality proven acreage @+ J
TheFrenchConnection
- 08 Apr 2007 18:14
- 34 of 177
Shit ! i apologise . Confused with ticker use i believed posters were reffering to Hardys and not T/O target Hardmans { HNR } .......l beg your pardon @+ J ,,,,,,,,OT l hope TLW will keep the market as well informed as HNR did with thier daily RNS s reg. drilling activity ....Bonne chance !
seawallwalker
- 09 Apr 2007 17:01
- 35 of 177
cynic and TFC, your comments are welcome and I agree.
The draw for me is Uganda.
Dr Square
- 19 Jun 2007 18:22
- 36 of 177
Well getting tempted to get some for my sons education fund. comments on the latest developments would be welcome. Also the imminent inclusion to the ftse 100 and subsequent tracker fund effect??
regards
seawallwalker
- 20 Jun 2007 12:40
- 37 of 177
Hello Square.
Good to see you are looking in the right places.
Tullow has the potantial to triple bag within the next 3 years IMO maybe more.
Ghana is just the start and I think the oil discovery is the tip of the iceberg.
Buy asap.
Uganda is looking like another monster oil province.
Hsve a look at the presenation from Heritage which I have attached.
http://www.heritageoilcorp.com/press/HOC_Presentation_06_2007.pdf
Particlarly look at slide 17 and Block 1.
3 more Kingfishers if the leads pan out.
Also recall that block 1 is immediately south of block 5 which is 100% owned by Tower, TRP.
It's game on and make sure you have a seat at the table
before the cards are dealt .
Dr Square
- 21 Jun 2007 07:19
- 38 of 177
Morning
have a look at the tax terms
may be of intrest first time I have seen the psa terms and conditions
Regards
sned
- 04 Aug 2007 00:00
- 39 of 177
Is there some un-certainity over oil fields in Uganda? local Uganda news thread -- http://www.monitor.co.ug/news/news08042.php
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Congolese troops killed oil worker - UPDF
FRANK NYAKAIRU & AUSI BARYASIIMA
KAMPALA/HOIMA
Uganda has accused Congolese government troops of attacking Heritage Oil installations on Lake Albert, an act that could harm relations between the two countries.
The UPDF said yesterday that Congolese soldiers attacked a floating barge killing one oil worker and paralysing operations of Heritage Oil and Tullow Oil companies prospecting for oil in the area.
[Between] 1 a.m. and 3 a.m. this morning, troops of the Congolese government attacked a barge carrying oil workers on Lake Albert; they killed one oil worker and this is the second time they are attacking Ugandan soil, said Lt. Tabaro Kiconco, a spokesman for the UPDFs 2nd Division based in western Uganda.
A barge is a long boat with a flat bottom, used for carrying heavy loads on rivers or canals. The victim of the attack was a chief oil surveyor only identified as Carl from Australia.
The first attack, the UPDF says, was on Sunday.
The latest attack, which occurred about 100km north of the Bundibugyo District shores, elicited a fire exchange involving private guards and some UPDF soldiers. Congolese authorities have already confirmed that they lost a soldier in that attack, Lt. Kiconco said.
State Minister for Defence Ruth Nankabirwa described the incident as a worrisome development and we are already in touch with Congolese authorities over this attack.
As we went to press, Brig. Hudson Mukasa, the 2nd Division commander, was just arriving in the area to assess the situation.
On the other side of the shores, in Hoima District, the attack has sent fear amongst the lakeside communities. The skirmish is likely to sour relations again between Uganda and the DR Congo. Uganda invaded the DR Congo in 1998 in a bid to fight the rebels of the Allied Democratic Forces, but instead took part in a five-year civil war the dragged in six more countries killing estimated two million Congolese and imparing relations between the two neighbours.
Those relations had been improving over the past three years.
In Kampala, the Foreign Ministry summoned the Congolese charge dAffaires to protest the attack.
It was not possible to get a comment by press time from the Congolese authorities.
Over the last three days we have noticed unusual incidents at out border with Congo, said Maj. Felix Kulayigye, the defence and army spokesman. Just on Sunday, Congolese forces kidnapped four of our soldiers and they are still holding them in Bunia.
The UPDF has since dispatched its marine forces to contain the situation. Junior Minerals and Energy Minister Kamanda Bataringaya asked the government to beef up security in areas with oil deposits.
We need security beefed up both on water and shores to prevent any such attacks from happening again, he said. Oil is Ugandas latest mineral discovery and the country is banking on it to turn its fortunes around.
Heritage Oil is a Canadian-based company with oil exploration projects in both Uganda and the DR Congo. Tullow is an Irish company.
sned
- 08 Aug 2007 22:18
- 40 of 177
Some gd news 2 come ... or is this part of the original reserve ?
http://www.monitor.co.ug/news/news08094.php
------------------------
More oil found in Mputa 3 well, says Migereko
AGNESS NANDUTU
PARLIAMENT
MORE oil and gas have been discovered in Mputa-3 exploration well in Kaiso-Tonya area in Hoima District, Energy and Mineral Development Minister Daudi Migereko has said.
Mr Migereko told the Natural Resources Committee of Parliament yesterday that the well, which was discovered on Tuesday, is the sixth discovered by Tullow Oil Company.
Tullow Oil, however, has not issued any statement regarding any more oil discoveries as the company customarily does.
The company is listed on the stock exchange and is legally bound to publicly disclose any development in its exploration and production activities immediately they happen. However, a source in the Ministry of Energy, who is familiar with the ongoing petroleum exploration in Western Uganda, and who talked on condition of anonymity, said he was not aware of more discoveries.
The source said Mputa-3 is an appraisal well - one that is used to confirm the extent of the oil deposits - was discovered earlier. Currently, about five oil wells have been confirmed by both Tullow and Heritage Oil to have viable deposits of petroleum. Combined, Uganda already has a confirmed production capacity of above 25,000 barrels of oil per day.
The minister, who was appearing before the committee to defend his ministry's 2007/8 budgetary estimates, said the tests are still going on to ascertain the amount of barrels to be extracted daily.
MPs on the committee, chaired by Emmanuel Dombo (Bunyole), were concerned about the progress of the exploration after one of the workers was killed. Gunmen attacked a barge operated by Heritage oil on Lake Albert on Friday morning, killing a British contractor Carl Nefdt.
Mr Migereko said the government is in talks with the Government of Congo to see that the oil exploration goes on without further interruptions.
The MPs were also concerned about how the government plans to undertake the exploration.
Mr Migereko said the government is prepared for the oil exploration operations.
"The scientists that have been trained were able to effectively negotiate Production Sharing Agreements and monitor operations of oil companies in the field," he said.
He said the Ministry, with support from the Norwegian and Indian governments, has embarked on training more staff to monitor the exploration activities.
He, however said there is need to slow down on licensing until the structure of the department of Petroleum exploration and production has been expanded.
On when the law on Petroleum would be presented to Parliament, Mr Migereko said the draft policy is expected in Cabinet this month. He said the law could be ready for Parliament's consideration in December.
He also told MPs that the four licences that have been out since 2004 have paid a cumulative total of $900,000 in signature bonuses
benrgood
- 31 Aug 2007 17:47
- 41 of 177
Oh dear - is it time to sell???
OUTLOOK Tullow H1 profit to fall on lower gas prices; market eyes Africa update
AFXU
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Mid-cap oil and gas producer Tullow Oil PLC is set to report a 47 pct drop in first half net profit Tuesday as higher production failed to offset lower UK gas prices.
Consensus estimates provided by the company expect net profit of 51 mln stg, down from 95.4 mln stg last time, on sales down 12 pct to 273 mln stg.
UBS said the decline comes as an 11 pct growth in working interest production is more than offset by the 55 pct decline in UK gas realisations.
It added that Tullow's interest charge has also more than doubled as a result of the debt raised for its acquisition of Hardman Resources last year.
However Evolution Securities believes the market is more likely to be interested in updates on Tullow's exploration activities in Africa.
Last week the company announced back to back drilling updates for oil projects in Ghana and Uganda, both of which were positive.
UBS is expecting an update on the progress of Tullow's appraisal wells at the Kudu prospect in Namibia and the third Mputa appraisal well in Uganda.
The company has already downgraded its full year production targets in July to 72,000-75,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, reflecting a re-allocation of capital away from UK production to pursue high impact exploration opportunities.
cynic
- 31 Aug 2007 18:23
- 42 of 177
the thing with TLW, as well as PMO and BUR, is that it is a considerable producer and therefore quite likely to be targetted by one of other of the giants as a cheap, easy and quick way to augment substantially its own reserves
unluckyboy
- 21 Sep 2007 22:09
- 43 of 177
Is there no stopping these shares? not that i want them to stop.I can see them going through the 10 mark by the end of the year, wait til they go into the ftse 100 and then anything can happen.
Darradev
- 27 Sep 2007 09:32
- 44 of 177
Nice to see TLW in the FTSE 100. Also back over 600 today and seems to be holding.
Darradev
- 09 Oct 2007 10:59
- 45 of 177
Tullow news indicates they are abandoning the latest Ghana well as non commercial and the share price rises 3%. love it !!
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=2315320
Darradev
- 11 Oct 2007 15:57
- 46 of 177
Looking at the charts with a 'simple' eye, it looks to me like another 'leg up' is ongoing. The last two were about 40-60 points each, this one (if indeed it is) would be targetting 650 before a retrace.
Only my view, no detailed charting experience or sofisticated software.
cynic
- 15 Oct 2007 14:13
- 47 of 177
not sure whether TLW is more likley to be target or predator, but certainly one to watch and possibly or even probably to buy on a bad day
dikytree
- 02 Nov 2007 10:47
- 48 of 177
Looks like TLW is about to break out!
dikytree
- 02 Nov 2007 10:49
- 49 of 177
.
cynic
- 02 Nov 2007 11:01
- 50 of 177
certainly performing well on another bad day
cynic
- 13 Nov 2007 12:25
- 51 of 177
Evolution say "investors are better off taking profits (in Cairn) and switching into stocks with greater upside potential such as Tullow Oil PLC and Premier Oil PLC."
ahoj
- 20 Nov 2007 12:49
- 52 of 177
They knew the bid wouldn't be accepted.
cynic
- 20 Nov 2007 13:14
- 53 of 177
????????? think you may be talking of the wrong stock ..... BUR was jilted not TLW
ahoj
- 20 Nov 2007 13:33
- 54 of 177
Ooops sorry for the mistake.
janetbennison
- 22 Nov 2007 07:42
- 55 of 177
some news out today on money am
cynic
- 20 Dec 2007 08:14
- 56 of 177
i am pretty dense in these matters (and all else), but i really cannot see that TLW's rns this morning was particularly disappointing ..... the quite heavy fall may be just precautionary by MMs on the basisi that some were expecting fireworks ..... though sp has fallen sharply thorugh both 25 and 50 dma, this could easily prove to be a good buying opportunity.
am already heavy enough in real oilies (PMO and IEC) as well as PFC (love that stock!) or i might be even more tempted
Falcothou
- 20 Dec 2007 08:44
- 57 of 177
Bought at 592 at the 810 reversal but put the trailing stop loss a bit tight and got taken out at 611. Seems cable is nosediving, could get more expensive at the pumps
required field
- 10 Jan 2008 08:32
- 59 of 177
General update must be coming soon.
required field
- 28 Jan 2008 13:20
- 60 of 177
Really need a Ghana well to be completed here, (They might be all watching the Africans Nations cup on TV), shame about Mauritania (possibly dragging this stock down), long term : plenty of potential.
required field
- 31 Jan 2008 22:17
- 61 of 177
Crumbs !, what happened towards end of play ? wet up like rocket !
required field
- 26 Feb 2008 10:30
- 62 of 177
Preparations possibly for a steep climb up to 7 !
required field
- 14 Mar 2008 15:05
- 63 of 177
Market up this morning...down this afternoon but TLW is steaming ahead...could be $111 a barrel helping !
required field
- 14 Mar 2008 15:28
- 64 of 177
Great write up in the IC this morning (see results)...they seem most impressed !
required field
- 14 Mar 2008 15:59
- 65 of 177
Something cooking with this one...broker upgrade possibly ! or takeover possibly...incredible increase in a bad market !
required field
- 02 Apr 2008 09:07
- 66 of 177
I hope that TLW is not getting the IEC or WSM jitters !
required field
- 11 Apr 2008 21:08
- 67 of 177
Good day for TLW !
Falcothou
- 12 Apr 2008 08:46
- 68 of 177
According to Torygraph, rise related to JP Morgan 89.50 dollar crude price estimates, and related rise in eps. Brent is going to have to be below 89.50 for quite a bit of this year to create that average!
cynic
- 12 Apr 2008 10:34
- 69 of 177
lots of quality oilies had good rises on Friday ..... i fear it will not be so pretty on Monday when a bloodbath is a distinct possibility following Friday's awful showing in USA
required field
- 12 Apr 2008 11:13
- 70 of 177
At a guess I'd say the market as a whole might be down except possibly once again for the mid-oil stocks which might once again buck the trend...but even though oil went up again 3 cents on friday they might get caught up in a pullback...let's hope not...real guesswork once again...though the oilies are in an upwards trend overall so a pullback for them will only be temporary !
required field
- 15 Apr 2008 12:22
- 71 of 177
TLW have hit the 7 mark....the way this world is going we shall see all oil producing stocks double sooner or later ..it might take a few years but I can see oil going a lot further...there will be pullbacks along the way but up, up and up it will go !!
required field
- 15 Apr 2008 16:30
- 72 of 177
Tremendous mid-cap increases today...it's like watching music !
Toya
- 24 Apr 2008 08:01
- 73 of 177
According to the FT: "rumours of a big oil find in Uganda". That would explain the rise.
Toya
- 24 Apr 2008 08:31
- 74 of 177
TLW has continued on up first thing - could be something to the rumours. I'm well in profit since 08:00 today, which makes a pleasant change from some of the pharmacos I've got caught up in!
required field
- 24 Apr 2008 08:36
- 75 of 177
Stick to oil if possible Toya and one or two others : check out DTK...seems to want to rise at the moment....I would not get in to the Glaxo's etc...
Toya
- 24 Apr 2008 08:38
- 76 of 177
Thanks RF - may as well go with the flow; and plenty of oil flowing in places thank goodness!
cynic
- 25 Apr 2008 16:11
- 77 of 177
switched into these from PMO yesterday and thought i had screwed it up yet again ..... however, TLW's performance today has been almost as chirpy as PMO's has been dull
Sowah
- 28 Apr 2008 01:32
- 78 of 177
With the Price-Earnings so high is TLW still worth holding or is it time to sell.
required field
- 28 Apr 2008 08:49
- 79 of 177
Loads of potential....there should be some info from Mauritania soon about the infills....for the moment hold !
cynic
- 28 Apr 2008 09:34
- 80 of 177
strange that sp should remain so strong after resignation of FD .... have taken a decent profit here this morning, but am sure i shall be back in here and/or with PMO
Toya
- 28 Apr 2008 12:30
- 81 of 177
I thought the same at first but then realised the FD is not going till end this year - so doesn't look like a sudden falling out with the company.
required field
- 06 May 2008 08:10
- 82 of 177
How do you describe this : Wowweeeee !
Falcothou
- 06 May 2008 08:20
- 83 of 177
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Tullow Oil Plc. said a 'significant' column of light oil has intersected at the Mahogany-2 well, which is being drilled to appraise the Jubilee field offshore Ghana.
The confirmation that Mahogany-2 is in communication with both Mahogany-1 and Hyedua-1, reinforces the company's interpretation that Jubilee is a major discovery and is likely to lead to a 'material' upgrade of current resource estimates, chief executive Aidan Heavey said.
required field
- 06 May 2008 08:23
- 84 of 177
Simply...well done TLW !
required field
- 06 May 2008 08:37
- 85 of 177
Looks like this will hit the 10 mark sometime before the autumn.
hermana
- 06 May 2008 09:16
- 86 of 177
req,that looks a given. Have you noted a wee strirring at PVR today?
required field
- 06 May 2008 09:23
- 87 of 177
Yes hermana....drilling soon to start there !, there is nothing better than oilies at the moment !
hermana
- 06 May 2008 09:26
- 88 of 177
Req,PVR is about more than just drilling. Wants production to be at 2000BOPD by beginning of 2010.
required field
- 16 May 2008 10:15
- 89 of 177
TLW flying this morning !, bid... offer all over the place here !...
required field
- 20 May 2008 11:12
- 90 of 177
Within sight of 10 !
cynic
- 20 May 2008 13:53
- 91 of 177
took my profit here this morning, but for sure will be back in
required field
- 20 May 2008 14:08
- 92 of 177
Took some as well, not all though !.
cynic
- 20 May 2008 14:17
- 93 of 177
bought more PMO with the proceeds
required field
- 20 May 2008 14:29
- 94 of 177
Well...out of one in to another that's the way to do it Cynic !
cynic
- 20 May 2008 15:39
- 95 of 177
they are both companies i like ...... sometimes i even hold both .... actually topped up PMO with TLW proceeds on basis of broker upgrade and good drilling results ...... felt TLW had prob had a good enough run for the time being.
though it did not look such a smart move earlier, TLW now significantly below the 965 at which i sold
required field
- 20 May 2008 16:15
- 96 of 177
Yes, looking back I should have sold more....will stay put for the moment..oil now at $129 and rising....as long as it is rising this should prevent too many knock downs within the mid-caps.
cynic
- 20 May 2008 16:19
- 97 of 177
oil cannot keep moving up for ever ...... it would not be surprising to see a very sharp and quite significant correction in the near future ....... obvioulsy oilies will then suffer, but it may well cheer up a number of other stocks
required field
- 20 May 2008 16:24
- 98 of 177
Possibly, it is bound to happen ...I'm praying that I will be able to get out beforehand.....never have had much luck when things like that happen, I seem to be busy with something else when the market goes pear shaped all of a sudden !, but let's keep an eye on the gulf of mexico and hurricane warnings....oh boy ! that would add some spice to the game !
required field
- 20 May 2008 16:29
- 99 of 177
2 stocks to keep an eye on : SIA (well testing due soon) and JKX (momentum building).
required field
- 06 Jun 2008 08:53
- 100 of 177
Not sure which way TLW is going to go...it's up now but ....head and shoulders graph ....in the making ?.
required field
- 13 Jun 2008 08:30
- 101 of 177
There could be a sudden pullback to the 850p region....I might be wrong but there is resistance just above 920p....could complete the head and shoulders formation.
cynic
- 13 Jun 2008 08:31
- 102 of 177
it's a damn good company ..... i tend to switch between TLW and PMO, currently holding the latter.
required field
- 13 Jun 2008 08:39
- 103 of 177
I agree, I'm out at the moment, but will be back no doubt at all, I'm sure that this will be above 12 sooner or later, but in the meantime I'm thinking that there could be a slight retracement possibly....just guesswork on my part....timing is so difficult to get it 100% right.... PMO is also a tremendous oil stock (in at the moment).
required field
- 20 Jun 2008 16:45
- 104 of 177
Big increase today....IC tip (page 50) might just have helped...!
cynic
- 30 Jun 2008 10:08
- 105 of 177
am i totally nuts, but would have expected TLW to rocket rather than dive on latest news
Stan
- 30 Jun 2008 12:16
- 106 of 177
Buy on the rumour sell on the news maybe? don't know as I haven't been following TLW very closely lately.
cynic
- 30 Jun 2008 18:06
- 107 of 177
sp finished down only 20 after -40, and surely worth a punt, as i think i shall tomorow
halifax
- 24 Jul 2008 17:30
- 108 of 177
TLW along with others like DGO heading south rapidly is this because the market recognises the oil price bubble is about to burst?
cynic
- 24 Jul 2008 17:32
- 109 of 177
yeeeees ...... but as i mentiond elsewhere, i would expect M&A activity to perk up again, especially once sp levels are seen to have over-fallen ...... the major players find it far cheaper to snap up their smaller brethren who have proven reserves and/or production
halifax
- 24 Jul 2008 17:40
- 110 of 177
cynic you may be right but the production of these small oilies is tiny compared to the majors and their activities are too fragmented perhaps too much trouble for the likes of BP or Shell.
cynic
- 24 Jul 2008 17:51
- 111 of 177
but not the likes of TLW and PMO or even IEC who have all been touted as potential t/o targets on a number of occasions
halifax
- 24 Jul 2008 18:30
- 112 of 177
cynic I can't recall when BP or Shell took over an oil minnow please refresh my memory.
cynic
- 24 Jul 2008 21:25
- 113 of 177
smaller is diff from minnow .... last to be taken out was BUR and t/o is currently mooted for IEC
Falcothou
- 24 Jul 2008 22:15
- 114 of 177
Seems to be approaching the green ma line on the chart, oil is consolidating at 125-6 for the moment. A risky buy? or a falling knife
required field
- 25 Jul 2008 08:39
- 115 of 177
The graph looks like an Arizona rock formation,....a little overdone now !.
scotinvestor
- 25 Jul 2008 11:48
- 116 of 177
similar to many oil producers....shorters r doing it.
reaD an aticle this week about an ex top bank investment manager who says in last bea market in high tecj sector which was worst, 3% shorted......now its at least 10% and soetimes 15%.......h says this can bring down finncial state of country, cause big unemployment to companies involved and means these companies have low markt value thus cant grow company etc.
so a certain amount of shorters profit big time all for the cause of uk going down the pan.....
hlyeo98
- 10 Sep 2008 00:09
- 117 of 177
Tullow is too high at 730p. Sell down to 550p.
hlyeo98
- 06 Oct 2008 11:31
- 118 of 177
And it is now 568p.
hlyeo98
- 08 Oct 2008 19:44
- 119 of 177
CLOSED AT 483P. No support now. Will crash.
cynic
- 08 Oct 2008 19:59
- 120 of 177
jeepers! and it's a damn good company too ..... strangely, PMO which has been hammered of late, has ben up for the last 2 days
martinl2
- 08 Oct 2008 21:26
- 121 of 177
Absolutely ridiculous. Beyond ridiculous, this market.
One things for 100% sure though - it simply can't continue in the same way for much longer - or a lot of companies will simply be worth ZERO.
And as we a approach zero an amount of people tending to infinity can buy an amount of shares approaching infinity.
scotinvestor
- 09 Oct 2008 00:24
- 122 of 177
i was talking to a guy today saying we should go communist and stalin had it right and this guy agreed with me.
banks r going to cost 16,000 for each person in uk already.......and thats just for starters.
justyi
- 01 Nov 2008 13:57
- 123 of 177
Oil prices could fall to $50 a barrel by the end of the year because of the global recession, reducing heating bills and the cost of motoring, analysts said yesterday.
The price of Brent North Sea crude fell to $63 yesterday, even after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) decided to cut output by 1.5 million barrels several days ago in an attempt to shore up prices.
Supermarkets including Asda, Sainsburys, Tesco and Morrisons responded by announcing cheaper petrol.
Robert Laughlin, an analyst at the trader MF Global, said: The world-wide demand for energy is getting worse every day. If we continue to get this drip-drip of bad news, I think we will get close to $50 a barrel by December. Weve seen demand [drop by] 2 million barrels per day since the beginning of August. This cut isnt enough and Opec will definitely have to go further to stop the slide.
cynic
- 01 Nov 2008 15:28
- 124 of 177
if you believe that, why do you not short crude? ..... Nymex is the one that dictates.
niceonecyril
- 20 Nov 2008 09:59
- 125 of 177
LONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Tullow Oil PLC:
* Ebony-1 exploration well, located in the shallow water Tano licence
offshore
Ghana, has intersected two hydrocarbon bearing intervals
* Current interpretation of the Ebony-1 result is extremely encouraging
((London Equities Newsroom; +44 20 7542 7717))
cyril
required field
- 20 Nov 2008 11:36
- 126 of 177
We need a rise in crude.....TLW is one of the best mid-caps around....9 times out of ten it is good news with them !.
Stan
- 20 Nov 2008 11:39
- 127 of 177
" We need a rise in crude....." Anyone know Opec's phone No.?
required field
- 20 Nov 2008 15:10
- 128 of 177
Incredible the drop in crude oil....I would never have believed this possible just 4 months ago....good demand still has to be there....!.
Falcothou
- 20 Nov 2008 18:02
- 129 of 177
I think just as there were some hefty long positions on wti there are now some hefty short positions , when they close could see a big bounce though not sure what their target is. $45 or $50 or perhaps 10. Crude seems to be following the indices and of course the dollar. Surprising that Captain Pugwash's antics didn't spike it yesterday! I'm looking for an opportunity to go long wti but global recession just seems to be escalating
martinl2
- 20 Nov 2008 18:16
- 130 of 177
OPEC meeting again end of next week - further cuts in production very likely.
Stan
- 20 Nov 2008 23:01
- 131 of 177
Is that right m2 ? we shall see then.
goldfinger
- 25 Nov 2008 12:20
- 132 of 177
Took a long position this morning.
Tullow Oil TLW, SP bouncing from long term support/resistance line at 400p, good chance of move up to next resistance at 600p pretty quick time and then hoping from a break up through it.
ADX TA indicator positive at +30
Broker Recommendations...
Tullow Oil PLC
SUMMARY CHARTS DIRECTOR DEALINGS FORECASTS WIRES
2008 2009
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
24-11-08 ADD 288.69 19.89 6.30 183.34 10.27 6.60
Exane BNP Paribas
24-11-08 HOLD 676.00 20.65 6.00 187.00 11.38 6.00
Numis Securities Ltd
21-11-08 BUY 31.90 19.90
Charles Stanley
21-11-08 HOLD
Davy Stockbrokers
21-11-08 None 25.70 6.30 21.40 6.60
Oriel Securities
20-11-08 BUY 293.00 22.40 6.50 309.00 24.60 7.00
Merrion Stockbrokers
17-11-08 BUY 27.70 6.00 37.70 6.50
Evolution Securities Ltd
01-11-08 BUY 359.40 9.70 6.00 388.90 33.50 6.30
Goodbody Stockbrokers
21-10-08 ADD 34.30 6.50 30.20 7.00
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd
21-10-08 BUY 25.72 4.70 23.17 4.79
ABN AMRO
29-08-08 BUY 278.79 21.24 6.50 359.68 27.26 7.00
2008 2009
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 307.92 23.37 6.25 327.21 23.93 6.59
1 Month Change -9.72 -0.48 -0.04 -27.44 -4.79 -0.07
3 Month Change -85.55 0.50 -0.01 -35.92 -5.20 -0.03
GROWTH
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
Norm. EPS -37.96% 31.92% 2.40%
DPS 10.00% 13.64% 5.44%
INVESTMENT RATIOS
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
EBITDA 471.81m 539.72m 491.75m
EBIT 266.01m 362.69m 287.30m
Dividend Yield 1.18% 1.34% 1.41%
Dividend Cover 3.22x 3.74x 3.63x
PER 26.36x 19.98x 19.52x
PEG -0.69f 0.63f 8.14f
Net Asset Value PS -36.05p 141.43p 144.81p
goldfinger
- 28 Nov 2008 03:02
- 133 of 177
Not far to go for 600p now, and then we are trully well and away.
justyi
- 05 Dec 2008 09:58
- 135 of 177
With demand falling, there is no way oil will reach $200 in the short to medium term...
Oil to hit $25 a barrel as global recession deepens, Merrill Lynch predicts
Oil prices could tumble below $25 a barrel next year if the global recession reaches China, investment bank Merrill Lynch has predicted.
The prediction that the crude prices could revisit lows last seen in 2002 led to a plunge in energy shares on Wall Street and sent the Dow Jones index down 215 points - or 2.5pc.
"With demand vanishing across all key oil consuming regions, benchmark crude oil prices continue to plummet," Merrill said in a research note. "A temporary drop below $25 a barrel is possible if the global recession extends to China."
Oil fell below $43 barrel overnight as crude oil heads for its biggest weekly decline since March 2003. Since the US was declared to be in recession earlier this week the price has fallen 19pc.
"The connection is pretty clear - fewer people in jobs is a clear sign of a weakening economy,'' said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney.
"As unemployment rises, GDP falls and oil demand falls. It's not likely to show much hope for the economy.''
cynic
- 05 Dec 2008 10:19
- 136 of 177
bet Merrill also said oil to hit $200 when it was +/-$140 ..... just another bunch od so-called analyst arseholes!
my money will very shortly be placed long on a Nymex contract, so that is my view
goldfinger
- 09 Dec 2008 15:51
- 137 of 177
Looking horny again.
best trading in and out of this one.
long at moment.
required field
- 11 Dec 2008 09:11
- 138 of 177
Great news this morning.....apart from the low oil price, TLW and HOIL looking rather good !.
goldfinger
- 12 Dec 2008 09:27
- 139 of 177
Broker upgrade.....
TULLOW OIL
FORECASTS
2008 2009
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Evolution Securities Ltd
11-12-08 BUY 407.30 14.90 527.30 45.40
goldfinger
- 12 Dec 2008 09:50
- 140 of 177
Moving up nicely now on a day which looks too red for my liking.
I see brokers have a target SP for TLW in a range from around 850p to 1200p which makes the current SP look rather stingy.
A lot more to come here i think.
required field
- 13 Dec 2008 11:43
- 141 of 177
An upsurge in oil prices might be on the way with the new year coming and cold weather here until march at least.
justyi
- 13 Dec 2008 12:59
- 142 of 177
From The Times December 13, 2008
Expert cuts $200-a-barrel oil forecast to $45
Robin Pagnamenta, Energy and Environment Editor
The leading Goldman Sachs oil analyst, who had been one of the market's biggest bulls this year, predicting that crude could hit $200 a barrel, has slashed his 2009 forecast to $45, blaming incredibly weak demand as the global economy plunges into recession.
Arjun Murti, the New York energy analyst for the US investment bank, came to prominence in 2005, when he was among the first to predict accurately a superspike in prices to more than $100 a barrel. For each of the successive three years, his forecasts were consistently higher - and usually closer to the mark - than those of most of his peers.
However, Mr Murti was left red-faced this autumn when his prediction that prices could reach $200 proved far-fetched. Instead, they nosedived from a high of $147 a barrel on July 11 to $48.50 yesterday.
In a research note published late on Thursday, Mr Murti's team said that it had been compelled to trim its average price outlook for next year to $45, from a previously reduced forecast of $75, because of a continued deterioration in global oil demand.
The note read: Global economic conditions are the weakest the world has seen since at least the early 1980s and demand is declining at an accelerating rate.
Mr Murti added that demand for crude was so weak that Opec, the cartel of 13 oil-producing nations, which will meet next week in Algeria, would be unable to force prices higher through further production cuts.
We think that the sharp and sudden collapse in global oil demand exceeds Opec's ability to, on its own, balance markets, and necessitates sharply lower non-Opec crude-oil supply, the report said.
Nevertheless, Mr Murti also asserted that there were signs that crude prices could be close to a turning point. We see a growing number of signs that oil markets have entered the bottoming phase of the cycle, the report said, adding that positive demand growth and shrinking non-Opec supply would push prices to $70 a barrel by 2010 and to $105 by 2012.
We do not believe oil markets are on track for a decade-plus period of weakness like seen in the 1980s and 1990s, the report said.
In a separate study published yesterday, another group of Goldman commodities analysts predicted that world oil demand would fall by 1.7 million barrels a day, helping to drive oil prices down to as low as $30 a barrel in the first quarter of next year.
We expect that an additional 2 million barrels per day of Opec supply cuts will be required in 2009, along with a 600,000 barrels per day reduction in non-Opec production, in order to rebalance the market, the analysts wrote.
required field
- 13 Dec 2008 13:50
- 143 of 177
Frankly, even for the experts it's just a guess as to which way oil is going to go, with a cold winter here in Northern Europe and a big demand for heating oil, gas, and production cuts from Opec, I would have liked to think that a rise might be on the cards; but I have to admit that it's always North America that seems to have the final say, a cold winter up there and their car industry put back on track with some input from Washington coupled with Opec restrictions might trigger a little recovery around the new year !.
dealerdear
- 13 Dec 2008 13:56
- 144 of 177
For once and probably only once, I agree with you although I suspect the recovery will be a little later.
required field
- 13 Dec 2008 20:08
- 145 of 177
Crikey !, somebody agrees with me, jeepers !, never expected that !, I must open a bottle of something !, now let me see : Dom perignon, Moet, Chateau Vintage....hmmmm...seem to be out of bubbly...oh well, must make do with a can of beer !.
goldfinger
- 14 Dec 2008 02:37
- 146 of 177
Well i agree with you RF, what about sharing a bottle of meths?.
Only kidding.
But surely the sentiment issue coming from OPEC will have a direct effect on the oil price for a while.
required field
- 14 Dec 2008 15:54
- 147 of 177
Well there's a very cold snap on the North American east coast, we shall see what effect that will have on crude and gas prices in the next few days.
required field
- 16 Dec 2008 09:01
- 148 of 177
Another strike, TLW turning into a Cairn ?,tremendous results for the 2 partners (Tlw an Hoil) in Uganda.....if only Idi had known, he must be cursing from his grave !.
goldfinger
- 16 Dec 2008 09:08
- 149 of 177
Glad to be holding but I prefer DNX.
required field
- 16 Dec 2008 12:36
- 150 of 177
Holding both !.
goldfinger
- 16 Dec 2008 13:58
- 151 of 177
Well done same here.
cynic
- 04 Jan 2010 09:41
- 152 of 177
an interesting conundrum
it is heavily rumoured that TLW will exercise their option to buy the HOIL Uganda licences, thus scuppering ENI's effort.
the big Q is what will be the effect of so doing, not only on TLW, but to a lesser extent to HOIL?
required field
- 04 Jan 2010 10:02
- 153 of 177
I thought a year ago that Tullow Oil should buy Heritage Oil...they should have done so.
ahoj
- 04 Jan 2010 15:34
- 154 of 177
Can they buy DGO. It's 50% undervalued over TLW
cynic
- 04 Jan 2010 15:49
- 155 of 177
why on earth would TLW want to do that?
required field
- 05 Jan 2010 09:11
- 156 of 177
A company will only acquire another company that fits in with their development program....Dragon oil might not fit the bill but Heritage would.
Balerboy
- 05 Jan 2010 14:00
- 157 of 177
any idea why TLW and HOIL have both lost ground today??
cynic
- 05 Jan 2010 14:24
- 158 of 177
HOIL - because there is now no compelling or even particular reason to hold
TLW - has only lost a smidge, and that is presumably because it will be shelling out for HOIL's Uganda stake
Balerboy
- 05 Jan 2010 14:28
- 159 of 177
whats the future possibilities for hoil then cynic?
cynic
- 05 Jan 2010 15:15
- 160 of 177
no idea ..... i'm out of them for now ..... check their site as i think they may also share another field with TLW off ghana or nigeria
halifax
- 05 Jan 2010 16:14
- 161 of 177
The problem with both HOIL and TLW and their discoveries in Uganda is the massive investment required to exploit these finds. It is difficult to believe either company can afford to go it alone hence HOIL deciding to sell out to ENI.
cynic
- 05 Jan 2010 16:34
- 162 of 177
TLW have, i think, already said they cannot afford the (whole) development .... the logic for TLW buying the HOIL stake will be to give them a much stronger bargaining hand when it comes to selling on
halifax
- 05 Jan 2010 17:16
- 163 of 177
Don't think TLW will try to outbid ENI for HOIL'S Uganda assets, unless ENI back away from the deal.
cynic
- 05 Jan 2010 17:23
- 164 of 177
they don't need to ... TLW have pre-emption rights at the same price that ENI paid
required field
- 18 Jan 2010 08:17
- 165 of 177
Important news today....
cynic
- 18 Jan 2010 08:18
- 166 of 177
yes, but no surprise .....
TLW exercises its pre-emption rights over HOIL Uganda block
toki
- 25 Jan 2010 14:18
- 167 of 177
A technical tip on
uk-analyst
Balerboy
- 19 Jul 2010 09:18
- 168 of 177
More good news:
Buliisa Tullow Oil has discovered more oil in Bunyoro sub-region, the firm has announced. "Tullow Oil plc announces that the Nsoga-5 appraisal well, which is located in the Butiaba region of Uganda Block 2, has successfully encountered 10 metres of net oil pay," a July 15 statement posted on the company's website reads in part.
Endless discoveries
Uganda continues to enjoy back to back oil discoveries in the Albertine grabben where oil explorers are exploring for oil. The explorers have so far discovered over 2 billion reserves of petroleum deposits in the grabben. Commercial oil production is anticipated to commence next year. According to the statement, the Nsoga-5 appraisal well was drilled to a total depth of 587 metres, 2.3 km to the north-east of the Nsoga-1 discovery well, targeting equivalent reservoirs in a previously un-drilled fault block.
Production potential
"The successful Nsoga-5 well was the first of a multi-well appraisal programme planned to further evaluate the extent and production potential of oil accumulations in the greater Nsoga area" the statement said.
The OGEC IRI-750 rig will now move 2 km south to the Kigogole Field where it will drill the Kigogole-5 appraisal well. Tullow Oil has interests in three licenses in the Lake Albert Rift Basin in Uganda. The company operates Block 2 with a 100 per cent interest and has a 50 per cent interest in Blocks 1 and 3A which are operated by Heritage Oil (50 per cent).
cynic
- 26 Jul 2010 07:40
- 169 of 177
TLW continues its amazing run of successful drillings ....
Owo-1 exploration well discovers new oil field
26 July 2010 - Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) announces that the Owo-1 exploration well in the Deepwater Tano licence offshore Ghana has intersected a significant column of excellent quality light oil. Results of drilling, wireline logs and samples of reservoir fluids have established Owo as a major new oil field requiring further appraisal.
required field
- 25 Aug 2010 08:16
- 170 of 177
Not exactly very generous with the dividend....glad I sold out the other week.
Balerboy
- 02 Sep 2010 08:45
- 171 of 177
Market not impressed with latest news??
Tullow acquires a 50% interest of the East African Rift Basins of Kenya and Ethiopia
2 September 2010 - Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow") announces the acquisition of a 50% operated interest in six adjacent licences covering the East African Rift Basins of Kenya and Ethiopia, an area of 97,000 sq km.
Tullow has signed agreements with Africa Oil Corp ("Africa Oil") to gain a 50% interest in five licences; Blocks 10BB, 10A, 12A and 13T in Kenya and the South Omo Block in Ethiopia. This acquisition expands on the farm-in to Block 10BA from Centric Energy ("Centric") announced in August.
Under the terms of the agreements with Africa Oil, Tullow will reimburse pro-rata past costs in each of these blocks and will carry Africa Oil for future net expenditures up to US$23.75 million.
This East African Rift Basin acreage shares many geological attributes with Tullow's Lake Albert Rift Basin position in Uganda however it is approximately ten times larger. The acreage, which is located 500 km to the east of Lake Albert has good evidence of a live oil system. The Loperot-1 well drilled in 1992 recovered 29 degree API waxy crude from Miocene sandstones. Seismic programmes are planned for the acreage in 2010 and 2011 and the first wells are expected to be drilled next year.
cynic
- 07 Sep 2010 15:54
- 172 of 177
RF - well i'm glad i topped up by 1/3 a few days back ..... it will be very jolly if this rumoured comes to owt
Balerboy
- 07 Sep 2010 15:58
- 173 of 177
glad i hold a few tooooo.,.
cynic
- 07 Sep 2010 16:04
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time for another beer in the hot barca sun i think ..... tough this work stuff! ..... back thursday afternoon
Balerboy
- 07 Sep 2010 16:10
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any mail???
cynic
- 07 Sep 2010 17:58
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office or aol?
haven't checked aol for last 2 days, but thanks for silliness .... why should i be offended by an Amish joke?
Balerboy
- 12 Sep 2010 16:24
- 177 of 177
Sep 10, 2010
Tullow becomes operator in Kenya, Ethiopia
The scramble for acreage in East Africa continues apace, with Tullow Oil taking operatorship of five blocks in Kenya and Ethiopia, previously held by Africa Oil Corp. cover 37,452 sq miles (97,000 sq km). The blocks also are adjacent to the Centric Energy block in Kenya into which Tullow farmed last month.
Tullow believes this East African Rift Basin acreage shares several geological attributes with its Lake Albert Rift Basin position in Uganda, but is 10 times larger.
The deal covers a 50% interest in blocks 10BB, 10A, 12A, and 13T in Kenya, and the South Omo block in Ethiopia. Tullow has agreed to pay 50% of past costs and will carry Africa Oil for US $23.75 million of net future costs.
The acreage, which is 311 miles (500 km) east of Lake Albert, has good evidence of a live oil system. The Loperot-1 well drilled in 1992 recovered waxy crude from Miocene sandstones. Seismic programs are planned for the acreage in 2010 and 2011, and the first wells are expected to be drilled next year.