Morning all.

I see that Ambrian Capital doesn't have a new thread, so thought I would start one myself.

The company used to trade as investment vehicle Golden Prospect, but has widened its emphasis to provide a full brokerage service bringing a number of companies to market in recent times and moving towards launching investment companies, including Golden Prospect Precious Metals, in which it owns a 72% stake.

AMBR also invests on its own behalf, and owns a 9.43% stake in Jubilee Platinum, which has enjoyed a very strong run of late.

AMBR trades on its own account and in March 2006 launched Ambrian Commodities Limited, an Associate Broker Member of the London Metal Exchange, trading all types of metals and now also launching into "softs" such as sugar and carbon credits.

At 31 December 2006 the market value of AMBR's portfolio of listed investments was
31.9 million. It also holds a small portfolio of unlisted investments, with a book value of 4.8 million.

Trading for the FY ending 31 Dec 2006 was profitable, at EPS of 8.16p, up 35% from the previous year, placing the stock on a PE ratio of approx 8.9 at the current offer price of 73p.

Market cap at present is 79 million at SP of 73p. NAV based on the FY results is about 37p per share; you can probably add another 3.7p to that for the rise in the value of shares in JLP since the beginning of this year.

The current PE of less than 9 looks cheap. I have bought on recovery from the recent dip and am expecting this to add at least 10% within a month. I should point out that I am buying as a trading play, but would also consider this as a potential buy-and-hold.

The one thing to watch out for may be a reduction in income from investment banking activities this year as fewer companies launch on AIM. IB made up approx 40% of turnover last year. AMBR was involved in 14 capital raisings, including bringing 5 companies to market, although any likely drop in overall IPO numbers may be ironed out slightly by AMBR's increased profile and business gained from existing listed companies adopting AMBR as its broker and performing corporate actions such as share placings and other capital raisings. The chairman's statement points out that Ambrian Partners, the IB division, is now active in six sectors, whereas it used only to operate in the mining sector, thus broadening both its exposure to the wider market and its client base.

In summary, then, AMBR looks like it has a good future ahead of it, and appears to be slightly undervalued even allowing for a possible drop in investment banking income, given that the company has diversified its interests considerably.

However, I would urge potential investors please to do their own research as all of this is only my opinion.

I bought in at 73.18 this morning (the highest price of the day so far, but I won't let that get to me as I have been watching it like a hawk since Wednesday)(EDIT: I was probably charged slightly more as it was a T+25 trade).

About 460K traded today so far.

But my involvement seems to have been enough to shove the offer price up: AMBR Bid: 72p Offer: 73.5p Change: 1 (the quote was 72/73 when I traded).

FWIW, a recent RNS from 19th April re a major shareholder.

Ambrian Capital PLC - Holding(s) in Company

RNS Number:1446V
Ambrian Capital PLC
19 April 2007


19 April 2007

Ambrian Capital PLC ('the Company')

Holding(s) in Company

On 18th April 2007 the Company was advised that certain affiliated parties under
the control of Global Resources Investments Limited have increased their
interest to 12,307,000 shares representing 11.42% of the total voting rights
from a previous amount of 11,655,000 shares representing 10.82%.

Of these shares, 8,240,000 are held for and on behalf of general partners and
their respective limited partnerships and interest owners of Resource Capital
Investment Corporation ('RCIC') and Resource Investment Management Corporation.
This total includes 350,000 shares owned in a principle capacity by RCIC. The
balance of 4,067,000 shares is held in segregated discretionary accounts.

Buys : Sells 2:1, probably more like 10:1 as there is a 100K trade - the largest so far today - that has been deemed a sale but probably went through late. 636K traded.

And a very strong finish: AMBR Bid: 74.75p Offer: 76p Change: 3.75, +5.23%, 1.3 million traded.

Bit of a lonely vigil for you here, soult. Not many takers!
Have put this on my watch list & will monitor. A bit strapped for cash at the mo, until I cash in the remainder of my SOLA holding, which is likely to be very soon!

Harry, nice to see you here. Yep, I am on my own for the time being - I wish everyone would let me know what they're investing in that's so much better!! :o)

Still, at least the wider market seems to be taking notice, and that's good enough for me!

I will be watching SOLA with interest regarding the outcome of Monday's investor presentation.

as soul* is incapable of putting moving averages + rsi on his chart, i thought i would do it for you!

at current levels, i cannot see a good reason to buy, for not only has sp roared away from the moving averages (actually quite a bullish signal) but rsi is now quite strongly o'bought



red = 25 dma
green = 50 dma

200 dma has fallen off the bottom of the chart!

Chuckle.

Cynic, it's the cheap PE of 9 and 35% profits increase that makes it a good 'un. Fundamentals rather than technicals are going to drive this, IMO.

And a nice start to the day.

And there's more: AMBR Bid: 77.5p Offer: 78.5p Change: 2.5, 1.6 million traded. PE 9.5

thanks for the heads up on this soul* ..... would certainly rather buy this than Soton Footy .... however, am currently pretty much at my investment limit and cannot think what i might sell to make room .... or at least not for the time being

My pleasure, Mr. C! best of luck with your current holdings.

I have to say, though, that AMBR is not only posting bigger rises but also greater volume, day-on-day: AMBR Bid: 78p Offer: 79p Change: 3, 2.1 mil traded.

I hope that this means that the wider market is waking up to this stock.

Great: every time I look at this it goes up!! AMBR Bid: 80.25p Offer: 80.5p Change: 5

2.4 mil traded

I mean, literally every time!! AMBR Bid: 80.5p Offer: 81p Change: 5.25

You know, I'd be getting embarrassed, if I wasn't loving it so much!

AMBR Bid: 80.75p Offer: 81p Change: 5.5

Here's a thought, FWIW: when this hits the apparently magic 100 million market capital, at 92.6p, the PE will still only be 11.35.

So it could have a lot further to go, and again when the SP hits 1.

but don't take my ramp for it. PDYOR. :o)

AMBR Bid: 85p Offer: 85.5p Change: 9.75

3.1 mil traded.

AMBR Bid: 85.5p Offer: 87p Change: 10.75

Well you certainly put a squib under this one!! very nice for you soul. unfortunately I sold as Gol P and failed to buy back even though I saw the presentation on Trading Places a few weeks back. The ceo said they had a lot in the pipeline which would lift the sp but I had no spare cash. well picked soul!

Do you think this rise suggests a poss T/O - EK on t1ps mentioned something in his diary.

Thanks MP - sorry to hear you missed out. I also sold Gol P at a small loss, but something prompted me to revisit Ambrian last Wednesday.

FWIW I think it could have further to go as PE is still only just over 10.

By the way, I also got some EPY today, although the spread I paid is beginning to make me think I should have reconsidered. Still, it has done some nice little leaps over the past year, and today's new s ought to be worth a re-rating.

DDoc, IMO this stock is due a further rise based purely on fundamentals. I guess when something is this cheap then a T/O is never out of the question, but it wasn't uppermost in my mind when I bought.

A slight drop today on profit-taking: AMBR Bid: 83p Offer: 84.5p Change: -0.75

I have topped up at 84.05p.

Steady moves!! 150p?

Yep, this has been doing nicely over the last few days. Volume is reasonable too.

150p has to be on the cards at some point. I think we could be on for 10p EPS in the current year, so why not?

It's about time some of the analysts started to cover AMBR, especially as the 100 mil mkt cap will soon start to get tantalisingly close.

AMBR Bid: 84.5p Offer: 85p Change: 0

Ooops, it was up 0.75p a minute ago! The day's high so far was 87.5. Maybe the MM's have whacked it a bit. Current spread would seem to be encouraging to potential buyers.

Cheap as chips imo........

Getting some more.

Ambrian Capital PLC
21 August 2007

Holding(s) in Company

On 17th August 2007 the Company was advised that certain affiliated parties
under the control of Global Resources Investments Limited have increased their
interest to 13,886,101 shares representing 12.82% of the total voting rights
from a previous amount of 12,307,000 shares representing 11.42%.

Of these shares, 9,390,400 are held for and on behalf of general partners and
their respective limited partnerships and interest owners of Resource Capital
Investment Corporation ('RCIC') and Resource Investment Management Corporation.
This total includes 350,000 shares owned in a principle capacity by RCIC. The
balance of 4,495,701 shares is held in segregated discretionary accounts.

From the recent GC&CR write up. They are forecasting 2007 EPS of 10.2p, putting Ambrian on a PER of just times 5.9


Ambrian Capital

There have been no announcements by Ambrian Capital since our last update published on 15th July 2007. The investment case for this growing integrated investment bank remains the same with our target price of 99.5p per share unchanged.

Ambrian Commodities, Ambrians wholly owned subsidiary and broker dealer at the London Metals Exchange, has expanded its commodity trading business recently by appointing three new members with an 85 year combined experience in the commodities market. The move is likely to see Ambrians fast growing commodity client base increase. In addition, Ambrian Commodities has appointed Jeff Cooper to head its soft commodities team and launch the companys trading services in both the cocoa and coffee markets.

Our target price for Ambrian Capital is 99.4p. This is based on valuing the earnings stream from investment banking and share trading on a current year multiple of 5 and the assumption that Ambrians stake in Minerva, Minesite, Golden Prospect Precious Metals and its direct investments are worth 48.4p. At 60.5p, our stance remains buy.

Article HERE

Well, the SP has taken a battering from the general slide in the market for small-cap commodity stocks, but the EPS is robust - FT.com has this on a PE of 6.37, whch is definitely too cheap if the cashflow valuation model talked about in Andy's article is taken as the datum. I'm still in this one, but am hoping the wider market takes notice of what's going on. I await the next financials (in March?) with bated breath.

Yes it will be interesting to see the value of their investment portfolio.