I know it's not the sexiest of sectors, but do any of the technical chartists here think this represents a testing of a significant resistance?
The MDAs seem to offer support. It looks to me like if it could break that line, then a potential line of resistance at about 336 there will be serious upside to follow.
Can this go places?

Red:25 DMA
Green:50 DMA

St Ives owns a lot of land, so the print-profit is really only a side-line - - - that is if you believe anything.
Today they win a Royal Mail print contract (worth 40m/yr) and the sp goes down 3% - - - perhaps punters expected a bigger order
. . . I think the business is in need of a re-rating, but I understand the property hasn't been revalued for yonks. ( that a technical term, folks).

They no longer print Harry Potter ( no new titles being written) . . .but I suspect there may be "just one more" - or a "Complete Works" etc. . . who knows? The film industry need the marque to continue and why would JKR not want to be in the limelight? A book is the means by which the film studios judge the potential box-office frenzy, is my guess.
I suspect the loss of HP has forced management to get their house in order and that's why they moved into Display-print, about a year ago when I bought ( about current levels).
However, it is IMHO a property-play.....I hope!

Er, this EPIC ( under "Quote") returns "Not a valid EPIC!"- what?
- It's OK now - rather Odd!

I understand there is another Harry Potter Film - to be split into two - this could boost [SIV] print-sales . . . . what do others think?

EDIT BigTed - There is the AGM, in London, later in the year - - - -

EDIT-(17NOV08)-Seems Director bought just 16k-worth at 82p...ho-hum. That's far too little esp. at these bargain prices - unless they know different.... Arrgh!

Misread the header, was just getting my coat to come and meet you for a pint at St.Ives...

Print and publishing services firm St Ives , which is also due to release full-year results on Tuesday, looks interesting -- if for no other reason than that current forecasts are suggesting a dividend yield of 7%, rising to 8% for next year, and expecting it to be around three times covered by earnings. And at the current price of 79.5p, those forecasts suggest a year-end P/E of just 5, which seems very low. I don't know what the catch might be, but I intend to do a bit of digging.

Net debt at the interim stage was only £9.6m, which isn't much for a £94m company, so I'll be paying close attention to those results when we see them -- according to last month's trading statement, they should be in line with expectations

St Ives shines as it continues move away from print
Tue 02 Oct 2012

SIV - St Ives

Latest Prices
Name Price %
St Ives 84.75p +6.27%

FTSE All-Share 3,046 +0.26%
FTSE Small Cap 3,241 +0.27%
Support Services 5,185 +0.60%

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Shares of marketing and print firm St Ives took off in early trading after it said that although extremely difficult trading conditions continue, it remains confident in future trading and hiked its dividend payment.

The group, which acquired three new marketing services as part of its move away from print, said underlying revenue rose 10.3% to £327.4m for the 52 weeks ended July 27th 2012. Underlying pre-tax profit for the period climbed 15.9% to £24.2m.

A total dividend of 5.75p per share has been offered, up 9.5% from last time.

"Our market positions are strong, we continue to improve operational efficiencies, our financial position is robust and we have recently renewed our banking facilities. We are proposing an increased dividend and remain confident that further progress can be made," the group said in a statement.

The firm reported net debt of £13.4m versus net cash £16.3m the previous year following the acquisitions.

Chief Executive Patrick Martell added: "We have made continued progress in our transformational plan to build a substantial and broadly-based marketing services offering whilst moving away from commoditised print, and this has resulted in a significantly improved financial performance."

Martell said the three new marketing services acquisitions: Response One, Pragma and Incite have been successfully integrated and are performing well.

"Trading conditions remain difficult, but we are in a strong financial position and will continue to invest to realise growth opportunities, to improve operational efficiencies, and to develop the business for the long-term," the group said.

Full-year results from printer and publishing services firm St Ives , which I took a quick look at last week, were good -- and the shares piled up 4.7% to 83.5p. As forecast, the full-year dividend was upped by 9.5% to 5.75p per share, which is a massive 7% payout.

Earnings per share did fall, by 12% to 11.64p, but the dividend is still twice covered, and the company's net debt fell to £13.4m from £16.3m a year previously. Chief executive Patrick Martell told us the firm is successfully transforming itself to a "broadly-based marketing services" business and away from conventional print, and appears confident about further progress

Moving north, 11% today

Tipped in this weeks IC . Trading on a miserly five times forecast earnings and offering an attractive yield, the new look St Ives seems to have slipped under the radar.

now you tell us!!! lol .,.

29th Sept my 1st post. Got to be quick Bb. lol

Fair play dc.,.

Worth reading.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/56333/stock-watch-st-ives

Good read, thanks lg.

The Naked Trader's opinion is nice to hear especially for us long term holders :-)

'St Ives seems to be transforming itself from a dull old fashioned printer into a new whizzy high tech one. And doing it fast. It's been buying up other companies to help its transition and it's got some decent contracts with the likes of Sainsburys and HSBC.

Its new strategy is paying off and the shares look very cheap to me even though they have already gone up quite a bit and I missed some of the boat I actually think they are worth 150-200 rather than a quid.

So the plan is to tuck them away for longer-term growth - and I bought some in two lots, at 93.5 and 97.25.

My target is to hopefully get at least 50% out of them in time, and maybe even a double over say a year.'

Interesting read from ample...

Stock to Watch: St Ives
By Edmond Jackson | Fri, 05/10/2012 - 00:00

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

FTSE SmallCap-listed marketing services and print group St Ives (SIV) has declared impressive headline results for its financial year to 27 July, the second half helped by acquisitions and the Olympics.

Approaching 90p a share, up from 80p just before the results and a spring-summertime low around 68p, SIV sports a prospective yield of about 7% covered over 2.5 times by recent and forecast earnings, and the price-earnings multiple (P/E) is only about five times. In short, the kind of share that looks primed to re-rate.

Indeed if management can deliver on the strategy to get its recently acquired marketing services firms feeding business into the print side, and the UK (to which St Ives is wholly exposed) does not experience further serious recession, then risk is on the upside. Bear in mind that marketing services can be cut quickly if the economy turns down - one reason why, in these difficult recent years since 2008, the stockmarket de-rated SIV from an average historic price-earnings multiple of 11 times to nearer six times.

Normalised pre-tax profit plunged from £28.7 million to £7.3 million over the years ending July 2008 and 2009 although there were risks with a mainly "commoditised print" operation. Not many analysts cover St Ives but one forecast looks for peak profitability of £29 million in the 2013/14 year, implying a P/E of about five times.

It is necessary to look beyond the headlines, as acquisitions and the Olympics have boosted the group's latest second half and possibly saved the dividend - or at least a prudent payout. First-half results were already acquisitions-assisted while print revenues "declined slightly, reflecting the increasingly competitive landscape and reduced demand for traditional print services..." At this point, marketing services generated about 20% of underlying operating profit but they still helped underlying pre-tax profit rise 8.7% to £11.1 million on underlying revenue up 11.7% to £166.4 million.

From note 10 to the prelims' cash-flow statement it would appear that a culture of late payment currently in publishing and advertising has pushed up trade receivables such that overall cash generated from operations more than halved to £10.8 million. That is still sufficient considering note five in the results implies the cost of the (rising) payout policy is about £6 million a year, but it's not ideal in support of a progressive dividend policy.

The marketing services' acquisitions have been made with £25.5 million of new, longer-term debt. To reinforce my point, if you were running a private business then you would cut the dividend and/or make modest investments, rather than bump up debt in a recessionary environment. Perhaps St Ives would argue that a recession offers better-priced targets it is worth buying as a well-financed operation, although as a public company it is also true that it must bolster its earnings profile. The acquisitions must obviously beat their cost of capital at the very least.

For the full year the main print side is in slight decline, with underlying operating profit of £20.4 million on £280.3 million revenue. Performance has varied in this division with the Olympics helping the exhibitions and events business, while direct response and books have slipped. Point of sale, nearly a third of this division's revenue, gained market share to post a slight improvement.

Considering the weak UK economy, the slight fall in overall performance seems respectable if likely - without sexier acquisitions - to mean a low single figure P/E drags on.

The marketing services side saw acquisitions boost operating profit from £500,000 to £4.0 million, on revenue up from £14.1 million to £47.1 million. This explains the headline 15.9% rise in group operating profit to £24.2 million, and full-year accounting for the acquisitions reaffirms a 20% contribution. A year ago, management stated its objective for 30% to 40% of group operating profit to be derived from marketing services, on a three-year view, and sticks by this - which possibly implies a further acquisition or two. Last May the group concluded a new £55 million credit facility and net debt was £13.4 million at end-July - hence the balance sheet might support more debt and/or some of the cash flow be applied for ongoing investment.

Management says expenditure is now substantially reduced after major rationalisation across its print businesses, with future investment on "capability in marketing services". Consequently, and despite extremely difficult trading conditions, it is proposing an increased dividend "and remains confident that further progress can be made". This sounds promising if synergy can be exacted from marketing services and print to drive up profit and cash flow. Management say they are very pleased with the performance of the acquired businesses, to date, and cross-collaboration has resulted in some long-term blue-chip contracts.

So it is an interesting risk/reward profile. The print side has shown it can withstand tough trading, while management says the rise in consumer power is driving a fundamental change in the role of marketing, and St Ives is now ideally positioned. You could say the market's pricing the shares to exact a 7% yield discounts the risks with little to no recognition of the potential.

The balance sheet is goodwill/intangibles heavy, as you can expect from a largely "people business", comprising over 80% of net assets, although key aspects of the balance sheet do not pose strain. The ratio of current assets to current liabilities is over 1.2 times, with trade receivables up 37.5%, hopefully they will end up paying what is due to St Ives despite the recession. The only debt is via the long-term facility established this year. Within £146.8 million net assets there is a £20 million pension fund deficit.

In conclusion, SIV is suffering like many smaller marketing services shares do, in a recession, if mainly due to its legacy exposure to print. It is up to management now, to prove it has adeptly repositioned the group to a strong area of marketing and make this model hum

Latest Broker Stances.....

On a forward P/E of just over
6 to 2013.

It could double from here and still
look cheap.

St Ives PLC

FORECASTS 2013 2014
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Singer Capital Markets Ltd [R]
02-10-12 BUY 27.80 16.40 6.30 29.10 17.30 6.50
Numis Securities Ltd
02-10-12 BUY 26.50 16.60 29.00 17.50

2013 2014
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 26.89 16.54 6.30 29.03 17.44 6.50
1 Month Change -0.49 0.08 0.00 -0.97 -0.46 0.00
3 Month Change -0.57 0.09 0.00 -0.61 -0.25 0.00


GROWTH
2012 (A) 2013 (E) 2014 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.55% 3.28% 5.44%
DPS 50.00% 20.00% 3.18%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2012 (A) 2013 (E) 2014 (E)

EBITDA £m £35.42m £38.61m
EBIT £m £28.40m £29.40m
Dividend Yield 5.22% 6.27% 6.47%
Dividend Cover 3.05x 2.63x 2.68x
PER 6.28x 6.08x 5.76x
PEG 2.46f 1.85f 1.06f
Net Asset Value PS p 84.20p 80.90p

Hemscott Premium.

SIV St Ives

Broker Target Prices.....

Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes

08 Oct St Ives PLC N+1 Singer Buy 104.63 - 129.00 Retains
02 Oct St Ives PLC Numis Buy 104.63 132.00 132.00 Retains

(NORWICH & PETERBOROUGH BUILDING SOCIETY )


Seem a little stingy at present
and expect these to be raised
as the company grows going forward.

Historical broker snippet.

Broker Notes

Singer Capital reiterated its "buy" rating for St. Ives (SIV) with an increased target price of 129p, from 126p. The printing company has made rapid development in the marketing sector,and the broker expects it to account for 32% of EBIT by 2013, from just 2.1% in 2011. Additionally, Singer noted that the book printing business is outperforming the market, while the remaining divisions have been reorganised and should be profitable from now on. The broker pointed to a low earnings ratio for the year ending July 2012 of just 5.7 times and a dividend of 6.6%. Shares in St. Ives lost 0.75p to 81.25p.

http://uk-analyst.com/shop/page-advice/action-advertorial.show/id-130016927

St Ives SIV

KEY FIGURES

Market Cap. £127.02m EPS Growth (pr) 5.46%
Shares in issue 119.83m DY (pr) 6.13%
PER (pr) 6.09x ROCE/ROIC 27.56%
PEG (pr) 1.12f Net Gearing -12.0%

COMPANY BACKGROUND

Sector Professional and Support Services
Activities Provides marketing, print and display services
EPIC SIV
Index FTSE Small Cap, FTSE All Share
Listed LSE - Full

OUTLOOK

(2/10/2012) PLM: ce - "Trading conditions remain difficult, but we are in a strong financial position and will continue to invest to realise growth opportunities, to improve operational efficiencies, and to develop the business for the long term benefit of our shareholders"

LATEST RESULTS - Prelim
29/7/2011 27/7/2012

Turnover £297.24m £329.46m
Pre-tax Profit £16.9m £14.91m
EPS (Norm Dil.) 14.46p 16.02p
Dividend 3.5p 5.25p
Notes Figures from 2005 in accordance with IFRS


INVESTMENT RATIOS

Co. FTSE Sector Market
PER (pr) 6.09x 14.29x 12.16x
Dividend Yield (pr) 6.13% 2.94% 4.20%
PEG (pr) 1.12f 1.04f 2.46f
ROCE 27.56% -28.40% 12.66%
Operating Margin 6.88% 10.67% 10.25%
EPS Growth (pr) 5.46% 15.00% 16.70%
EV/EBITDA 2.61x 12.51x 13.94x
Net Gearing n/a% 69.08% 25.53%
Net Tangible Asset Value PS p 0.07p 1.98p
Price to Tangible Book Value (PTBV) x -1.69x -0.25x
Price to Cashflow (PCF) x 15.01x 10.76x
Price to Sales Ratio (PSR) x 1.78x 2.43x

posted on twitter.

Equity Development ‏@equity_research

$SIV.L Presentation by St Ives CFO Matt Armitage: Co.continuing to reshape its business into Marketing Services. Shares +30% in Octob

SIV St Ives.....

Flash chart......

Flash Chart: St Ives (SIV)
Published by: zakmir on 16th Oct 2012 | View all blogs by zakmir

St Ives (SIV): Wide 2 Year Rising Trend Channel
Above November 2011 resistance at 95p suggests a top of two year price channel target as high as 140p on 2-3 month time frame.

"

Ex-Dividend
28 Nov 12St Ives PLC [SIV] (4 p)

Interim Management Statement
PRNW


27 November 2012

St Ives plc - Interim Management Statement

St Ives, the UK's leading marketing services and print group, is today
publishing its Interim Management Statement covering the period from 28 July
2012 to date.

We have made a good start to the current financial year with revenue for the
fourteen week period ended 2 November 2012 broadly flat compared to the
equivalent period last year, reflecting the benefit of growth across our
Marketing Services businesses, offset by the revenue impact of our decision to
exit commoditised print markets. As a result, margins are improved and
underlying operating profit is ahead of the equivalent period for the prior
year.

We continue to make good progress with our strategy to reposition the business
and offer an extended range of services and added value customer solutions from
across the Group's capabilities.

Print

Trading conditions remain challenging but despite the anticipated fall in
revenue, we have managed to improve margins and therefore maintain underlying
operating profit. Within our Direct Response business, the closure of the Leeds
facility will complete on schedule and the work will be transferred to our
remaining site in Bradford. Our Point of Sale business continues to perform
well and we have successfully renegotiated a number of our larger contracts.
Service Graphics, our Exhibition and Events business, has performed well in the
period and is benefitting from the reputation for the quality and reliability
of the services that we provided during the London Olympics. Whilst our Books
business continues to be impacted by changing order patterns, our reputation
for service and reliability ensures we produce the majority of the bestselling
titles.

Marketing Services

With a contribution from all of the Marketing Services businesses in the
period, revenue and underlying operating profit are significantly ahead of the
equivalent period for last year. All of the acquisitions have integrated well
and we are winning business at an individual business level and through
combining our capabilities on specific customer propositions. We will continue
to invest in this area of our business, and to seek further selective
acquisitions that extend our ability to offer a comprehensive and
differentiated proposition to our target markets.

Outlook

The actions we have taken to reposition the Group have enabled us to make
progress in spite of headwinds in the UK economy. The new financial year has
started well, the balance sheet remains strong and we remain confident that
further progress will be made as we continue to execute our strategy.

St Ives confident despite headwinds
Tue 27 Nov 2012

SIV - St Ives

Latest Prices
Name Price %
St Ives 105.75p +2.67%

FTSE All-Share 3,037 +0.48%
FTSE Small Cap 3,247 +0.05%
Support Services 5,159 +0.26%

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Marketing services and print group St Ives said it made a good start to the current financial year with revenue for the fourteen weeks to November broadly flat compared to the year before.

Margins improved and underlying operating profit rose compared to last year.

The group, which bought three new marketing services earlier this year as part of its move away from print, said growth across its marketing services businesses from end of July to date was offset by the revenue impact of its decision to exit print markets.

St Ives said trading conditions in print remain challenging but despite the anticipated fall in revenue, it has improved margins and maintained underlying operating profit.

In marketing services revenue and underlying operating profit were significantly ahead of the equivalent period for last year and all of its acquisitions have integrated well.

"The actions we have taken to reposition the group have enabled us to make progress in spite of headwinds in the UK economy," the group said in a statement.

"The new financial year has started well, the balance sheet remains strong and we remain confident that further progress will be made as we continue to execute our strategy."

Ex-dividend Wednesday 28 Nov 4.0p

Sold my holding, starting to slip. Made a good profit here

">

Looking positive again.,.

It certainly is. Next leg up underway. Still plenty left in the tank.

Nice find chaps.

The 4½ year weekly chart looks interesting - I know absolutely nothing about the company btw.

Skinny - is that a bowl or a very flat cup and handle? Whatever, it looks like we now have a four year high and a breakout. Even at this exalted level, the shares are still very lowly rated. 160 next stop.

Whatever it is, it looks promising.

Up another 3.6% yesterday - I'm not in these as yet!!!

Your chance could be coming. Looks like the current rise is running out of steam. A pull back should establish a new trading range until the next company update and then I reckon they will move ahead again.

Half Yearly Report

Group Financial Highlights

· Underlying* Group revenue of £161.7m (2012: £166.4m)

· Marketing Services revenue up 36.4% to £31.1m (2012: £22.8m)

· Underlying* profit before tax up 10.1% to £12.2m (2012: £11.1m)

· Basic underlying* earnings per share up 8.8% to 7.67p (2012: 7.05p)

· Interim dividend raised by 14.3% to 2.0p per share (2012: 1.75p per share)

· Strong balance sheet with net debt at 1 February 2013 of £7.0m

(27 July 2012: £13.4 m)



All figures for revenue, profit and earnings per share are based on continuing operations.
* Before non-underlying items which comprise restructuring costs, operating results of non-continuing sites, acquisition costs, contingent consideration required to be treated as remuneration, net profit on disposal of property, plant and equipment, amortisation of acquired intangibles and other one-off items.

Operational Highlights

· Continued success in implementing the strategic repositioning of the Group
· Marketing Services segment generated 31% of underlying Group operating profit
· Proposed acquisition of Amaze will further enhance Marketing Services offering
· Print segment major restructuring now complete, overall level of profitability maintained
· Our market leading Books business benefited from investment in new digital printing equipment
· New contracts won across the Group during the period, including Innocent Drinks, Johnston Press, JD Williams and Pizza Hut
· Over fifty clients now trade with more than one business within the Group

Looking to break out again, but today's doom and gloom market has knocked it back temporarily. If we can hold on to this level, the next decent day in the market will see it through 140.

sp 153p on the rise again.

Revenues down a bit. Might be in if it goes any lower.

Disappointing response from the market. Anyone would think that today's announcement was a profit warning. Buying opportunity?

My view too.

LISTEN: St. Ives (SIV) - Preliminary results for the 53 weeks ended 2 August 2013

Click here

Two substantial Director buys on Wednesday which I missed. Shows confidence. There's only one reason for buying shares. Looks as though I will have to hold on to mine for a while longer.

IMS today - ex dividend tomorrow 4.50p

Numis Buy 202.63 197.50 252.00 252.00 Retains

Half Yearly Report

Group Financial Highlights

· Underlying* Group revenue of £164.8m (2013: £161.7m)
· Marketing Services revenue up 50.0% to £46.7m (2013: £31.1m)
· Underlying* profit before tax up 13.1% to £12.9m (2013**: £11.4m)
· Profit before tax of £6.2m (2013**: £1.2m)
· Basic underlying* earnings per share up 13.0% to 8.10p (2013**: 7.17p)
· Interim dividend raised by 7.5% to 2.15p per share (2013: 2.0p per share)
· Strong balance sheet with net debt at 31 January 2014 of £12.4m (2 August 2013: £15.2m)
* Non-underlying items comprise: restructuring costs; provision releases; operating results of non-continuing sites; net profit on disposal of property, plant and equipment; profit on disposal of subsidiary; acquisition costs; consideration required to be treated as remuneration; amortisation of acquired intangibles; and other one-off items.
** IAS 19 (revised) 'Employee benefits' has been adopted for 2014 and the 2013 comparatives have been restated accordingly.
Operational Highlights

· Continued success in implementing the strategic repositioning of the Group
· Marketing Services segment generated 35% of underlying Group operating profit - on target to contribute over half of Group underlying operating profit by 2016
· Acquisition of Realise further strengthens the digital strand of our marketing services offering
· 2013 acquisitions of Amaze and Branded3 integrated well and on plan
· Print Services segment major restructuring now complete and overall level of profitability maintained
· Our market-leading Books business benefited from investment in new digital printing equipment

Commenting on the results, Patrick Martell, Chief Executive of St Ives, said:

"We are very pleased to report another strong set of results, with further progress in our strategy of building a broadly-based marketing services offering whilst moving away from the commoditised print markets. Having successfully completed the restructuring within our Print Services segment, we are continuing to build and strengthen our digital and data offering in Marketing Services, highlighted by the acquisition of Realise earlier this month.

With the UK economy showing further signs of recovery and consumer confidence improving, we remain confident that the Group is well positioned to make further progress in the full year."

We have a seller then. I hope that the RNS means that they have finished selling for now. If they are really intent in selling their stake, they still have over 8% of the company to play with. That could hold us back a while.

Looking at the chart, it seems reasonable for them to take a few off of the table.

I need to do the same myself, Skinny. But can't do anything until the new tax year. I have several candidates for a small haircut.

I'm out. Finally sold the balance of my holding today ex-div. It has been a very profitable hold and I am sorry to see them go, but I have other fish to fry. Good luck to all holders.

WARNING

SIV 124.50p -100.75p (-44.73%)

Revenue is up but profit is horribly down:

Despite a strong performance overall in the year to date, the combination of factors outlined above lead the Board to conclude that the Group's underlying profit before tax for the current financial year is likely to be materially below management's current expectations.

As it is normal brokers join to bring the share price lower .......

10.37am - Numis Slashes St Ives Forecasts After Profit Warning

Some large sells this afternoon 250K, 200K and 250K has got the share moving south and moving under the 120p low of the day
---------------

Read Arden Partners's note on ST IVES, out this morning, by visiting https://www.research-tree.com/company/GB0007689002

"The sensitivity to global marketing budgets combined with the negative headwinds in Marketing Activation and contracting returns within Books have resulted in a 20% cut in our FY17 earnings forecast. We anticipate the group will look to maintain DPS at 7.9p which still affords a reasonable cover above 2x. Whilst the yield may, therefore provide some support, the shock value of a revision to the Strategic Marketing business has undermined confidence in the investment case. Consequently we anticipate the shares will remain subdued short term and feel the price reaction this morning is justified. ..."

KEEP an EYE @ 120.75p

After yesterday's large drop looks ready for the bounce. Order book getting strong on the bid side. Latest broker update reduces EPS forecast for 2015/16 from 21.0p to 16.8p but that is a PE of 6, the shares are worth short term 150 to 170p.

Paying premium for large size 15K offer was 127.50p

10:41:10
128.0497p
15,375

Lunch time pause after the profit taking or retracement provoke as usual by MMs interfering on the order book.

Intraday retracement at the moment 38.2% spread 125 v 126p
That is a normal intraday Fibonacci retracement after a large rise

Order book is slowly getting strong again on the bid side, so soon will move up again

Yesterday's Talk after the warning FT Alphaville Peel Hunt can walk us through it. The company led with a cautious statement at the interims. The
disruption to marketing booking patterns referred to then has
accelerated in the final part of the year. This has impacted both
the legacy business (not unexpected) but also the Strategic
Marketing operations (which the market will be disappointed to
see). This combined with a process of destocking in books results
in reductions in expectation across all three division. Forecasts
will reduce by 20% for this year and next. The speed at which
fortunes have reversed will disappoint the market, with an
assumption that more pressure will come. We place our target
price and recommendation under review.

Books: The books division is seeing the headwinds of warehousing
reorganisation and a broader destocking. Moreover, the complexity of the PRH
work is greater than expected, and some export work is being lost. Whilst it is
logical to think these issues are one-off in nature and should work through, a level
of uncertainty will remain. There is considerable margin pressure as a result.
Marketing activation: The market will have expected ongoing pressure from the
UK grocery market. Forecasts here had been trimmed in recent months. There
have, however, been significant contract cancellations that have exacerbated the
trend. It is hard to see this issue as a one-off in the same way as the book
destocking.
Strategic marketing: Here the market will be more discomforted. The
previously very strong trends that had more than offset the issues in legacy
businesses have given way to some material contract cancellation. Whilst each
cancellation may have a specific cause, the coincidence of timing is disquieting.
The positive messages from November (clear evidence of collaboration and
benefit, so common ownership) will be tested in these more difficult
circumstance.
Impact on forecasts: The greatest pressure will be seen in Books (profit down a
third), with strategic marketing down just over 10%. Revenue for the full year
will be c£362m vs £372.4m current forecast. EBIT, however, will fall by £7m to
£33m, giving PBT of c£30m (from £37.2m). EPS of 16.8p vs 21.1p. In FY2017,
PBT will be nearer £32m from £41m, giving EPS of c17.3p.
Recommendation: We reduced our recommendation from Buy to Add when the
first cautious statement was issued in the interims. The subsequent fund raising at
215p, which was well supported, will not be forgotten. The broad-based nature
of the warning – with work lost across all divisions – will unsettle the market
more than a single one-off problem. As such, marginal buyers will now take some
time to be convinced this cycle has ended rather than just begun. The reasons we
liked the story before today remain intact, but we anticipate that the execution
will now take longer to validate. TP and recommendation under review.

Numis new forecasts.

Strategic Marketing. Although organic growth has been +15% ytd, the group has experienced greater caution in marketing budgets and has suffered the cancellation and deferral of a number of significant projects. We lower our EBITA forecasts by £3.6m to £20.2m in FY16 and £3.3m to £24.0m in 2017. We view the project deferrals to be a short term issue and expect the division to rebuild over the next 12-18m.
Marketing Activation. Trading conditions in the grocery retail sector have ‘worsened’ leading to revenue and margin pressure. We lower our EBITA forecasts by £2.0m to £8.0m for FY16 and £3.5m to £6.7m for 2017.
Books. Despite securing the PRH contract, St Ives has been impacted by destocking across the market following a reduction in warehouse capacity. We lower our EBITA forecasts by £2.2m to £5.0m for FY16 and by £3.4m to £4.5m in 2017.
Forecasts. We lower our PBT/EPS forecasts by -19% to £30.4m/17.5p (was £38.3m/21.6p) and by -22% to £32.4m/17.8p (£42.5m/23.0p) for 2017. We expect a maintained dividend of 7.80p. We forecast net debt/EBITDA of 2.0x for 2016 and 1.7x for 2017, compared with covenants of 2.50x and 2.25x.
--------------

Why St Ives plc crashed 40% today

Shares in struggling media and print group St Ives (LSE: SIV) slumped by as much as 40% in early trade this morning after the company issued a dire profit warning. Specifically, the company announced today that due to deteriorating market conditions, management expects reported profit for the current financial year will be “materially below” current market expectations. What’s more, management believes that the current trading conditions will also impact the group’s next financial year, indicating that St Ives’ troubles are quite serious.

A severe deterioration in trading

According to today’s press release from the company, trading in the eight months to the beginning of April had been “broadly in line” with expectations with revenue up by 5%. However, trading has deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks and now St Ives’ outlook for the final quarter to end-July and following financial year has worsened. All three of the group’s main trading divisions have suffered during the first four months of 2016. Trading across the Strategic Marketing segment has been hammered by ”global economic uncertainty“, which is “resulting in greater caution in the allocation of marketing budgets“. Uncertainty has only “increased of late, resulting in significant projects being deferred or cancelled.“

Meanwhile, revenue at the group’s Marketing Activation arm is running approximately 11% below the prior year, “due in large part to the ongoing pressures within the UK grocery retail sector“. The Marketing Activation arm is also suffering from margin pressures. And lastly, sales at St Ives’ books business are running slightly behind (-1%) the prior year’s numbers as industry de-stocking has offset a new contract with Penguin Random House.

Gloomy outlook

Today’s profit warning couldn’t have come at a worse time for shareholders as, after nearly a decade of restructuring, the company’s underlying unadjusted profits were expected to stabilise this year. Indeed, City forecasts were up until this morning, predicting that St Ives would report a pre-tax profit of £37.4m for the year ending 31 July. Last year the company reported a pre-tax profit of £8.7m and over the five years between 2011 and 2015 the group only reported unadjusted cumulative pre-tax profits of £49.4m. This explains why the shares have fallen so heavily this morning. Many investors were pinning their hopes on a long-awaited recovery this year. Unfortunately, it now looks as if investors will have to wait another two years for the company’s recovery to gain traction.

Weak balance sheet

Whether or not the group can get back on the path of growth remains to be seen. Almost all of the three main divisions are facing structural headwinds, which is why the company has been trying to rebuild, and diversify its business since the financial crisis. But more importantly, St Ives’ weak balance sheet is going to be a problem for the company and its investors if trading continues to worsen. At the end of January 2016, St Ives had only £14m of cash supporting £96m of long-term debt related to the business and £21m in retirement obligations. Further, intangible assets on the balance sheet amounted to £200m and if you strip these assets out shareholder equity comes in at around -£70m. Put simply, the balance sheet isn’t robust enough to be able to survive a prolonged deterioration in trading without an additional cash infusion.
http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2016/04/25/why-st-ives-plc-crashed-40-today/

27 Sep Numis Buy 129.25 180.00 180.00 Reiterates

Once more into the breach...

Has double now from the lows last July after the profit warning

Back into these the day before annual numbers. Good / lucky timing or what?

Latest Brokers.

06 Oct Peel Hunt Buy 146.63 175.00 175.00 Reiterates

04 Oct Numis Buy 146.63 180.00 190.00 Retains

Forward pe of about 10 then, Skinny. Fairly conservative.

Yes - recent broker notes :-

06 Oct Peel Hunt Buy 145.75 175.00 175.00 Reiterates

04 Oct Numis Buy 145.75 180.00 190.00 Retains

04 Oct Peel Hunt Buy 145.75 150.00 175.00 Reiterates

I missed this earlier!

Trading Statement

Pre-close trading update

St Ives, the international marketing services group, is today providing a pre-close trading update ahead of the announcement of its results for the half year to 27 January 2017, which will be released on 7 March 2017.

Strategic Marketing

Revenue for the Strategic Marketing segment for the half year is expected to be approximately 9% above the equivalent period in the prior year. Excluding the effects of acquisitions and currency movements, like-for-like revenue is expected to be broadly in line with the prior half year.

As previously reported, we experienced a number of project cancellations and deferrals in the last quarter of the previous financial year, which have also impacted revenue growth and operating margin within the first half of the current financial year. We remain encouraged by the progress that has been made to replace the cancelled work. However, this process is taking longer than previously anticipated, and it is unlikely that we will see the full benefit of the new work we have won until the final quarter of the current financial year.

Books

Within our Books business, revenue for the first half is expected to be approximately 13% above the prior half year. Trading during the pre-Christmas period has been generally positive and was particularly helped by the two recently published J.K. Rowling titles.

Marketing Activation

Trading conditions within our Marketing Activation segment continue to be very challenging due in large part to the ongoing pressures within the grocery retail sector, the segment's largest single market. We expect the rate of revenue decline to have reduced in the first half of the financial year to approximately 2% (compared to a 7% decline in the previous full financial year) although the pressure on operating margin has increased.

Diversification of the client base to reduce this segment's dependency on the grocery sector remains a priority and we have secured a number of new client wins in the half year, although at lower margins than historic levels due to the increasingly competitive nature of the market.

Due to the increased pressure on operating margins we have initiated further cost reduction measures within the segment. The benefits of these actions are expected to come through in the final quarter of the current financial year.

Outlook

As a result of the above, the Board now anticipates that the out-turn for the full financial year will be materially below its previous expectations with the majority of the shortfall due to the pressures within the Marketing Activation segment.

The Board remains confident in the long term strategy currently being pursued, and in the growth opportunities open to the Group. The balance sheet remains sound and we have the necessary cash flow capabilities to support our investment priorities and to further reduce debt.

- Ends -

Oh dear oh dear....Fell 30% to 76p today....and who knows how much lower this can go?
It was 240p in May 2016, - DYOR.

TIME FOR THE BOUNCE?

well I did buy some at 75.025p

There is volume as is moving up from the floor

Bought a few for ISA long term @70.50. Interims Wed 7/3

Peel Hunt Buy 71.25 130.00 130.00 Reiterates

ST IVES plc

Half Year Results for the 27 weeks ended 2 February 2018
St Ives plc, the international marketing services group, announces half year results for the 27 weeks ended 2 February 2018.

Financial Highlights


27 weeks to

2 February

2018

26 weeks to

27 January

2017

%age

change

Continuing operations:

Revenue

£146.5m

£136.7m

+7%

Adjusted profit before tax1

£12.7m

£9.5m

+35%

Adjusted basic earnings per share1

7.06p

5.26p

+34%

Statutory loss before tax

£(15.0)m

£(3.1)m



Statutory basic loss per share

(11.57)p

(2.96)p



Interim dividend

0.65p

0.65p



Net debt

£42.2m

£54.6m2



1 Adjusted results exclude Adjusting Items to enhance understanding of the ongoing financial performance of the Group. Adjusting Items comprise of redundancies, restructuring costs; gain or loss on disposal of properties; impairment or amortisation charges related to goodwill, tangible and intangible assets; contingent consideration required to be treated as remuneration; movements in deferred consideration and costs related to the St Ives Defined Benefits Pension Scheme.

2 Net debt as at 28 July 2017.

3 Continuing operations excludes the results of the four Marketing Activation businesses disposed of at the end of February 2018 (Note 8).

4 Like-for-like revenue is calculated by applying prior period exchange rates to local currency results for the current and prior periods.



· A positive six months, with encouraging growth in both Group revenue and adjusted profit before tax from continuing operations.

· Strategic Marketing, which lies at the centre of the Group's long term growth strategy, delivered like-for-like4 revenue growth of 23%, representing 85% of the Group's adjusted operating profit.

· Disposal of four businesses within the Marketing Activation segment significantly reduced Group exposure to commoditised print markets.

· Net debt reduced to £42.2 million from £54.6 million at 28 July 2017.

· Interim dividend maintained at 0.65 pence, to reflect both ongoing investment in organic growth of the Strategic Marketing segment and strengthening the balance sheet.

Matt Armitage, Chief Executive, said:

"This is an encouraging first half performance, with notable progress in our higher growth and higher margin Strategic Marketing segment, offsetting commercial pressures elsewhere in the Group.

"Strategic Marketing continues to go from strength to strength, and making a significant 85 percent contribution to adjusted operating profit during the period. Trading continues to be strong in this segment. We are encouraged by new projects won from both existing and new clients, and excited by the opportunities generated from increased collaboration between our businesses.

"Having indicated our intention to remain focused on diversifying into other sectors, we are pleased to have recently announced the disposal of a significant element of our Marketing Activation segment. This significantly reduces the Group's exposure to the structurally challenged, commoditised print markets and the risk of further, potentially significant re-structuring costs.

"We remain confident in our long-term growth strategy to generate value for shareholders."

Well done Chris.

Cheers skinny.