Recently announced a profit warning saying profits could fall 50% next year. The problem is they are unhedged on fuel for next year, and they state if oil remains at $85 RYA will suffer. The P/E is 12.55, falling to 11.15 next year if we see no more downgrades. There is 0% yield to support the price, which has fallen from 625 to 348.

Looking at the chart RYA are in a very pronounced bear channel, I believe resistance would be the last lower high at 405, with no obvious support apart from the lower line in bear channel 300?. Share is trying to recover now from 350 to 363 today, if it fails to break the 405 resistance and reverses I believe this would be a short signal.

Any views welcome.

price gaining on strong volumes, up 15 to 373, should see by early next week if it can break over resistance or reverse.

spitfire43.

yep.... I think it's a short as well but the price action has wild swings and it's all in the timing.

I started a thread in the Traders Room last year but have not posted recently as I got fed up talking to myself but I'm happy enough to continue the dialogue if other people are interested.

I've been trading it actively for many years and it's an old friend and been good to me.

If you've got any thoughts on some of the snippets I posted on the other thread I'm quite happy to discuss.

London close tonight was 373. New York (Nasdaq) was 3096.

Look at the ADR ratio and then the US premium and a few other things and sometimes there is a licence to print money but you've gotta be nimble.

mc.

Hi michael

Hadn't looked on the traders thread, but will look at it this morning, and get back to you. I wondered had you a price in mind for shorting, I came up with 403 looking at the chart for a resistance level.

Goldman Sachs rated RYA a buy on Monday with only a 420 price target, which doesn't show much confidence in the stock.

Could we see a small rally with stock in general including ryanair next week, I have been shorting for the past 10 days but got in on thursday before closing at 2.0175 so am holding out for profit hopefully next week.

Ryan air profits tumble.

this is the original shyster airline and they warrant no goodwill from anyone

Couldn't agree more!!

If you get the chance to see his brief interview on the beeb this morning - watch it!

charging a 1 to use the loo with ryanair seems to have turned them around LOL!

Unit costs increased 13% primarily due to longer sectors and a 37% rise in fuel costs. Excluding fuel, sector length adjusted unit costs were flat, as we continued to rigorously control costs despite a 2% pay increase, higher Eurocontrol fees, and substantially higher charges at Dublin Airport which were recently described as "insane" by Aer Lingus and "too excessive" by Etihad. We are 90% hedged for FY12 at $820 per tonne (approx. $82 pbl), up 12% on last year but significantly below current prices. We have recently extended our FY13 fuel cover and are 90% hedged for H1 at $990 per tonne ($99pbl) and 50% for H2 at $980 per tonne ($98pbl).

I don't hold these and don't see anything here to make me want to buy any right now. imo


RNS Number : 0555F
Ryanair Holdings PLC
20 May 2013
RYANAIR FULL YEAR PROFITS UP 13% TO EUR569M
TRAFFIC UP 5% TO 79M, NEW AIRCRAFT ORDER UNDERPINS GROWTH
Ryanair, Europe's only ultra-low cost carrier (ULCC) today (May 20) announced (record) annual profits of EUR569m, up 13% on last year despite higher oil costs. Revenues rose 13% to EUR4.88bn as traffic grew 5% to 79.3m passengers. Unit costs rose 8% mainly due to an 18% (EUR292m) increase in fuel. Excluding fuel unit costs rose by 3%, while avg. fares improved by 6%.

Full Year End (IFRS) Mar 31, 2012 Mar 31, 2013 % Change
---------------------- ---------------- ---------------- -------------
Passengers(m) 75.8 79.3 + 5%
---------------------- ---------------- ---------------- -------------
Revenue(m) EUR4,325 EUR4,884 +13%
---------------------- ---------------- ---------------- -------------
Profit after Tax(m)
Note 1 EUR503 EUR569 +13%
---------------------- ---------------- ---------------- -------------
Basic EPS(euro cent) 34.10 39.45 +16%
---------------------- ---------------- ---------------- -------------
Announcing these profits Ryanair's Michael O'Leary, said:
The highlights of the past financial year include:-
-- Profits grew by 13% to EUR569m.
-- Traffic grew 5% to 79.3m (despite grounding up to 80 winter aircraft). -- 7 new bases - Chania (Greece), Eindhoven (Netherlands), Fez (Morocco), Krakow (Poland), Maastricht (Netherlands), Marrakech (Morocco) & Zadar (Croatia).
-- 217 new routes (y/e total over 1,600 routes).
-- 15 new aircraft delivered (y/e fleet 305).
-- 2nd special div. of EUR492m and EUR68m share buyback completed.
-- 175 new aircraft order, delivery 2014 to 2018 (sub. to June 18 EGM approval). Delivering a 13% increase in profits and 5% traffic growth despite high oil prices during a European recession is testimony to the strength of Ryanair's ultra-low cost model. Fuel costs rose by over EUR290m, and now represent 45% of total costs. Excluding fuel, unit costs were up 3% due to excessive and unjustified increases in Italian ATC, Eurocontrol and Spanish airport fees. Ancillary revenues outpaced traffic growth, rising 20% to EUR1,064m or 22% of total revenue.
Growth - New Routes and Bases
This summer Ryanair opened 7 new bases, and more than 200 new routes as we continue our strategy of growing Europe's largest passenger airline. However with 9 (net) additional aircraft and longer sectors, traffic growth this summer will be very modest at approx. 2%. By grounding fewer aircraft next winter we expect to deliver slightly faster H2 monthly growth which should result in overall traffic growth for the full year rising by more than 2m to 81.5m passengers.
Forward bookings on our new routes and bases this summer are ahead of expectations (albeit at modest yields) as competitor airlines continue to restructure and cut short-haul capacity. We expect growth opportunities for Ryanair to expand and improve for the foreseeable future.
Our new route teams continue to handle more growth opportunities than our current fleet expansion allows. Significant opportunities are opening up in Germany, Scandinavia and central Europe in particular, where Air Berlin, SAS and LOT continue to restructure. We are in active discussions with the new owners of Stansted Airport and the new management at Dublin Airport and while no agreements have yet been reached, if a competitive cost base emerges, then we could restart growth at one or other airports as early as September 2013.
We have also made offers to the Spanish airport monopoly AENA to reverse a significant proportion of its traffic declines over the past two years. In a country where youth unemployment runs at 50%, their policy of increasing airport fees, while traffic declined from 220m to 180m over the past six years is plainly ill-judged. As ever, Ryanair remains willing to exploit growth opportunities wherever airports provide attractive incentives to do so.
Market Share Gains
Ryanair continues to expand, making meaningful share gains in many of Europe's largest markets. In addition to being the No. 1 passenger airline in Ireland, and Spain, we have in the last 12 months overtaken Alitalia and LOT to become Italy's and Poland's No. 1 airline, respectively. Ryanair believes that its unique low cost advantage will enable the airline to achieve a 20% share of the European short-haul market over the next 5 years, particularly given that many of Europe's high fare incumbents are restructuring and cutting capacity.
New 175 Aircraft Order
Ryanair's successful growth, allied to deep short-haul restructuring among many high fare competitors, gives us confidence that we can grow from 80m p.a. to over 100m passengers p.a. over the next 5 years. Our recent order for 175 firm B 737-800 aircraft represents an enormous opportunity for shareholders as Ryanair returns to higher rates (5% p.a.) of traffic growth. We are pleased to have reached acceptable pricing with Boeing, and the controlled delivery programme from Autumn 2014 to end of 2018 will provide the opportunity to expand Ryanair's fleet to over 400 aircraft and our traffic to over 100m p.a. Ryanair is now uniquely positioned to offer many of Europe's airports sustained traffic growth in return for low cost, efficient facilities. I am confident that in time this new order will enable Ryanair to extend its traffic leadership over Europe's airlines, and generate further returns for our shareholders.
Aer Lingus
We were disappointed that the European Commission in February 2013 decided to prohibit Ryanair's third offer for Aer Lingus. It is bizarre that the EU can wave through BA's offer for British Midland in Phase 1 with few remedies, yet months later reject Ryanair's offer for Aer Lingus which was accompanied by a revolutionary remedies package delivering two upfront buyers to open competing bases in Dublin and Cork airports. We have no doubt that this was yet another politically motivated decision by Europe's competition authority and it is inexplicable in the context of its stated policy of promoting European airline consolidation.
Having our third offer for Aer Lingus prohibited by the EU Commission on the grounds that "competition between Ryanair and Aer Lingus has intensified since 2007", our shareholding is now the subject of an even more bizarre regulatory inquiry in the UK where the Competition Commission are reviewing our 61/2 year old minority stake in Aer Lingus on the basis that it may have "lessened competition" between Ryanair and Aer Lingus. Given that the UK Competition Commission has a legal duty of sincere co-operation with the EU, we believe they cannot make a contrary finding, and so this spurious and time wasting inquiry into a 61/2 year old minority stake between two Irish airlines, one of whom (Aer Lingus) has a tiny presence in the UK market should now be abandoned in the light of the EU Commission's finding that competition between Ryanair and Aer Lingus has intensified.
Fuel Hedging
In recent years high oil prices and competitor fuel surcharges have made Ryanair's fares even more attractive to hard pressed European consumers. The combination of high oil prices, increasing competitor losses, together with a shortage of financing for weaker credits, will lead to continued EU consolidation and closures. Ryanair is 90% hedged for FY'14 at $980 per tonne (approx. $98 p.bl) and we have now extended our hedges into FY'15 with 25% of H1 hedged at $930 per tonne (approx. $93 p.bl). We hope to continue to make meaningful reductions in our oil costs into FY'15.
Balance Sheet
Ryanair's balance sheet remains one of the strongest in the industry. Our aircraft which have been purchased at substantially discounted prices, represents a significant long term benefit for our shareholders. We have gross cash over EUR3.5bn and year-end net cash of EUR61m, despite having returned almost EUR500m to shareholders in November (EUR1.5bn over the past 5 years) via a second special dividend. We have also taken advantage of current low interest rates to secure almost 70% of our fleet financing all in at under 3% and we have completed our Capex hedging programme to the end of 2014 at Euro/Dollar exchange rate of 1.32.
Outlook
We expect traffic in FY.14 to grow by 3% to 81.5m. Growth will be slower in H1 at approx. 2%, but rise to approx. 5% in H2 as we ground fewer winter aircraft (up to 60) compared to prior years. Unit costs will increase primarily due to rising oil prices, a 3% growth in sector length, and unjustified higher Eurocontrol and Spanish airport charges. Due to lower yields and higher fuel costs Q1 Net Profit will be lower than last year due to the timing of Easter (which boosted Q4 revenues) and its presence in the prior year Q1 comparable. With almost zero yield visibility into H2 and the EU wide recession, we expect that there will continue to be downward pressure on yields which will dampen full year profit growth. We expect modest yield and traffic growth for the full year to be partly offset by higher oil and Eurocontrol costs resulting in another year of profit growth in FY'14 which - subject to winter yield outturns - should increase to a range of between EUR570m to EUR600m".
ENDS.

Might be worth a watch! Ryanair pilots raise safety concerns in TV documentary

Ryanair is a really "nasty" company and i hope i am never ever obliged to fly with them

I agree cynic, I have flown with them just once and never again.

It's cheap and the service is very basic, but if that's all you can afford then that might be the difference between having, or not having, a holiday. I agree that I prefer to not use them, but £50 return to southern France or Spain is a bargain and it's only a 1 - 2 hour flight so who cares about in-flight services? Just so long as I am not on the same flight as a stag party to Prague!!!

shame you didn't watch the prog last night then .... then might have given you pause for thought

Ryanair to sue Channel 4 over Dispatches programme on pilots and safety

bet they'll never get THAT action to stick!
i reckon Ch4 did its reserach thoroughly and that there'll be plenty of supporting evidence for the statements made

I saw a program the other day showing how the aircraft industry are working on pilotless aircraft, so employers won't have to worry about pilot contracts. It seems the industry can already implement 'drone' commercial aircraft, but convincing the flying public that it is a safe option hasn't yet been successful.

this says it all about this scumbag airline .....

Ryanair has fired one of its senior pilots and is preparing legal action against him for questioning the airline's safety record in a television interview, the company said on Thursday.

Just highlights the fact you get what you pay for.

cheap and cheerful is fine and serves a purpose but assuredly RYA is just a really nasty company ..... it's intentionally impossible to deal with a person, and the only way to get satisfaction for a complaint is to be tenacious and go to court ..... but be aware that it has to be done via dublin ..... once you serve the papers, and always assuming you have a legitimate gripe with financial loss, RYA will pay up like lambs

Or just use a credit card and chargeback the cost then wait for them to issue proceedings and counter claim.

can one do that or is that fraud by you?

EZJ chart and even IAG are suffering.

You'll love this Cynic.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2283617/Ryanair-just-screwed-What-Dublin-Airport-flight-controller-told-airline-plane-forced-jets-abort-landing.html
To answer your question.
Regarding the chargeback, you would need to bring your dispute and request for compensation to the airline in the way you would with any other dispute seeking money. You should also inform them that you intend to perform a chargeback for the full amount and supply your details so that they can bill you for the amount you agree to pay. Of course if this isn't acceptable the airline should begin negotiation, if they try to go straight to court simply inform the court that negotiations are still ongoing and request the case be 'set aside' in your response using your counter claim with them as proof. As you have acknoledged that you do a owe a debt but not the said debt then your not defrauding anyone. As for making a charge back under the consumer credit act this is your statutory right if you've paid for goods or services that haven't been provided in full.

i enjoyed especially the very last little bit ......

Ryanair came under fire late last year after three of its planes made emergency landings in Valencia, Spain, in just one day.
The criticism prompted outspoken boss Michael O’Leary to defend the budget airline, claiming its safety record over its 28-year history was ‘impeccable’.

Well, I'm off to Perpignan in a few weeks with Ryanair at return cost of £71. So long as they get me there & back, I will be more than happy.......of course if they don't then....I'm working on that! Their website is really annoying though as it tries to sell you lots of add ons which I don't want. I would prefer to use Easyjet, but Montpellier is a bit far away from Narbonne, where I am headed. Also Stansted is much easier for me. Southend airport is now starting to promote itself, so am hoping that Easyjet manage to establish a route to southern France from there. For short haul, I am more than happy to use any of the post 'Skytrain' operators!

watch out for Lydd airport as the answer to the governments landing problems in the south.

Very nice part of the world Harry.

Romney marshes!? Conservationists would never allow it! Quite a tricky engineering feat also I would think.

Just a quick trip & cheap, thanks to a certain Irish Airline!

Kent already has an International Airport - Manston.

be very very wary of the tax implications and other nasties ..... i think it's may not be as tasty as first appears

Thanks Mr C. I have already done a huge amount of research and will have to take professional advice if & when it happens, but I think that it is feasible. I know there are lots of pitfalls, but not insurmountable. Am just conducting research atm. However, I presume that Corbières (Carignan & Grenache) is not an area you would ideally choose? ;o)

Harry much cheaper to rent than buy.

Lydd aiport awaiting planning approval to increase scheduled flights already has a regular flight to Le Touquet, close to M20 and Ashford International rail to London 40 minutes.

some surprisingly good wines are now made in relatively unlikely places
i also concur with hali

"some surprisingly good wines are now made in relatively unlikely places"........eloquently put Mr C! However, to the west is Bordeaux country and to the east is Rhône country, so stuck in the middle isn't such a bad option!

i thought there was sea to the east

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10285941/Profits-warning-looks-like-comeuppance-for-Ryanairs-motormouth-boss-Michael-OLeary.html

not before time!

3rd Quarter Results

RYANAIR REPORTS Q3 LOSS OF €35M IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE,
TRAFFIC GROWS 6% TO 18M - FARES & UNIT COSTS FALL 9%,
FULL YEAR PROFIT GUIDANCE OF €510M UNCHANGED

Ryanair, Europe's favourite low fares airline today (Feb 3) reported a Q3 Loss of €35m, in line with previous guidance. Traffic grew 6% to 18m passengers. Revenue per passenger declined 6%, as strong ancillary revenue growth offset a 9% fall in fares. Excluding fuel, sector length adjusted unit costs fell by 9%. Ryanair's full year profit guidance remains unchanged at approx. €510m.

Ryanair, Europe's favourite low fares airline

now there's a company that believes its own hype!
i don't think i have ever heard anyone mutter a complimentary word about this bunch, and that's no surprise

StockMarketWire.com
Ryanair said the continuing success of these 'Always Getting Better' initiatives has enabled it to raise its FY traffic forecast from 86m to 87m customers, and move its FY net profit towards the upper end of its (previously guided) 620m-650m euros range.

Ryanair's Michael O'Leary said:
"We now expect slightly stronger traffic growth in the winter schedule, as we open new bases in primary airports at Cologne, Gdansk, Glasgow and Warsaw Modlin, as well as significantly increasing flight frequencies and schedules from Dublin to UK cities, and from Dublin to European capitals.

"While still too early to be confident about H2 fares and yields, the continuing strength of our forward bookings and the improving customer experience leads us to cautiously raise our full year traffic forecast to 87m customers, and our full year profit guidance towards the upper end of our current 620m-650m euros range.

"However, the full year profit outturn continues to be heavily dependent on H2 yields over which we have very little visibility at present. We will give an update on Q3 yield performance at our half year results announcement in early November."

Ryanair today (5 Dec) confirmed that it will refund the £13 UK travel tax for all children (under-12) who check-in on flights departing the UK from 1st May 2015, following the decision of UK Chancellor George Osborne to abolish children's APD from 1st May next.

However, Ryanair announced that it will go even further than Chancellor Osborne and refund children's APD on UK flights for the six weeks from 27th March 2015, earlier than any other airline (or Chancellor Osborne), thereby allowing children to fly from the UK tax free for the Easter holidays so that British families can make even greater savings on their Easter breaks, as part of Ryanair's "Family Extra" service.

Refunding this UK APD for kids over the Easter Holiday period will cost Ryanair up to £2m, and is the latest in a series of customer experience improvements under Ryanair's "Always Getting Better" programme, which includes a new website, a new mobile app (with boarding passes), and the new "Family Extra" and "Business Plus" services, as Ryanair continues to deliver so much more than just the lowest fares.

i don't recollect anyone ever saying what a great airline ryanair was to fly with .... indeed, only the opposite ..... and then try to get a refund or similar from them

o'leary is so sharp it's amazing he hasn't yet cut his own throat

StockMarketWire.com
Ryanair's traffic figures rose by 30% to 5.98 million customers in January, while the load factor rose by 12% points to 83%.

Rolling annual traffic to January grew 8% to 87.8 million customers.

Chief marketing officer Kenny Jacobs said the increase was due to its lower fares and the continuing success of its 'Always Getting Better' customer programme, which delivered stronger forward bookings and better than expected load factors across its significantly expanded winter schedule.

He added: "With our great new routes, increased frequencies and Business Plus service, Ryanair continues to deliver so much more than just the lowest fares in every market we operate in."

Ryanair tips 10% profit lift in FY16 despite competition

Barclays note today:
"Q4 performance. Q4 net income was €23m. Average fares fell 9%, which is actually slightly worse than guidance (-6% to -8%), but must be taken in the context of stronger load factors. We would see this as self-inflicted: we believe Ryanair slightly mismanaged revenue through the winter, with opportunities to improve as it learns how to better balance price/load factor on a very different route network to its historical winter offering. Ancillaries fell 4%, which is a timing issue associated with credit card fees/earlier booking patterns vs last year. Ex-fuel unit costs were -10% (driven by 10ppt load factor improvement).
Summer outlook. Ryanair is guiding for average fares of 0% to -2% through the summer, which is slightly weaker than we would have expected, especially given support from GBP/EUR (which we estimate is at least a 3ppt tailwind). However, this is offset by stronger load factor performance (~4ppt through Q2, hitting tougher comps from July onwards). Forward bookings are running 4% ahead of last year.
FY outlook includes winter 2015/16 caution. Ryanair is taking its traditional very cautious view on the winter, with average fares assumed to fall -4% to -8%, leading to FY yield decline of -2% to -4%. This leads to FY net income guidance of €940m-€970m. Ryanair has a track record of being very conservative at the start of the year, and, given that it commented at Q3 to expect ‘modest’ profit growth in FY16, we think the fact that it is moving directly to 10% growth in initial guidance will be taken positively. There is also no reference in the statement to Ryanair actually seeing pricing weakness, instead, “we may suffer periods of fare/yield weakness”. Ex-fuel unit costs are expected to be flat in FY16, which we think is encouraging, given the pace of load factor is slowing and Ryanair is still moving into primary airports.

· Hedging. There is very little change to hedging levels compared to the analyst presentation at the end of March. Capex is now 100% hedged through to FY18.

· Cash returns. The H1 buyback (€400m) is confirmed, but there is not yet any commitment to shareholder returns through the winter."

StockMarketWire.com
Ryanair has confirmed that it has received a notice from Hertz which it says purports to terminate Hertz's exclusive car hire supply agreement with Ryanair with effect from midday today.

Hertz allege that Ryanair's agreement with GDS distribution companies represents a breach of contract, a claim which Ryanair disputes given that it has been distributing through GDSs since April 2014 (a period of over 15 months) with Hertz's knowledge and support.

Hertz has confirmed in their notice that all existing bookings will be honoured and customers will still be able to modify their bookings on the microsite following its decommissioning at midday today. Ryanair believes this termination is in breach of its long term exclusive contract with Hertz, which was recently extended for a five year period to 2020.

Ryanair says i will now pursue Hertz for breach of contract and damages. In the interim however Ryanair will be unable to offer its customers car hire services through the Ryanair.com website for a period of approx. 3 months while Ryanair seeks a suitable replacement supplier.

Separately Ryanair will, by the end of today, issue a request for proposals (R.F.P.) for the provision of car hire services to Ryanair's 100m annual customer base.

Ryanair's Michael O'Leary said: "We regret Hertz's decision to end our car hire agreement at such short notice today, at a time that will cause maximum inconvenience to our customers during the peak travel period. We have had a long and successful partnership with Hertz, and it's a pity that this has ended in such an unfortunate and untimely manner.

"We have instructed our lawyers to issue proceedings against Hertz for breach of contract. In the meantime we look forward to entering into discussions with other car hire suppliers who wish to offer their services to Ryanair's largest European customer base (100m passengers p.a.) via Europe's largest travel website www.Ryanair.com.

"We apologise sincerely to our customers for the absence of any car hire services on the Ryanair website from 12:00hrs today, however this decision has regrettably been forced upon us by Hertz's short notice this morning. We hope it will not cause too much inconvenience to our customers while we take a few months to identify and agree a suitable replacement provider who wishes to partner with Ryanair during the coming five year period of rapid traffic growth for Europe's lowest fare airline.

"Since we expect that any losses arising from this interruption to our car hire services will be recovered from our legal proceedings against Hertz, we do not expect this interruption to have a material impact on current earnings."

Ryanair formally accepts IAG offer for Aer Lingus

have always hated this company and have refused point blank to patronise it even if the opportunity arose

however, that idiot o'leary has very belatedly woken up to the fact that customers will not tolerate being treated like cattle and worse even if the price offered appears to be the cheapest

RYA's advertising is now well-focussed and will, i am sure, reap divis .....
this one is now on my watchlist and i expect to be tucking a few away in the near future

So you might even become a frequent flyer then? ;o)

fortunately i don't think RYA serve the routes i fly, so shan't even be tempted :-)