Recent listing produces iron ore in the Ukraine and has recently stepped up production recent gains suggests this one has further to go dyor..

Reasonable punt this could be worth 500p if we get the break out but long term a safe bet as the demand for iron ore increases.

up7% today remarkable.

And another 7% this am Citibank have a 430p target.

390p would do .

now moving ahead after the recent sell off... if it can break 390p the next resistance is 450p.

Good start to the week.

heading upwards today.. break-out..?

Poised to break-out any time now.

One of the best risers on the back of the Rns today..

well done mitzy

i aint went into this as its a "dodgy" country.....i have visited before to be able to say this.
also, putin's constant threats and bullying of ukraine with the russian mafia in their country dont help matters....plus the fact he is threatening to nuke them soon if they want to join up to us peace loving western nations!
yes, i said putin even though they have new president......but no-one hears of him....strange that, eh

Break-out confirmed.

Anyone interested..?

Hi Mitzy - yes, have been for a while but don't always get around to posting anything. This is another one where I managed to curb my impatience - and what a turnaround we're seeing today all of a sudden!

Glad to hear from you Toya.

Heading back to 500p.

This one caught my eye when scrolling FTSE 100 charts. Ended up buying it at 330. Unfortunately it may be another one day poke north after another wall st fall today. I looked at the fundamentals after the event and seemed ok. Any expert views on this around.?Is it a good prospect for long term?.

Long term yes...but patience is required with this one....caught up in the general downturn here.....at a guess Kenmare (KMR) is another mining stock that's undervalued....but at the moment investors are waiting for the bottom before piling in !.

What a disaster...132p now.

I agree its overdone.

Problem is it could fall to 100p or lower in current conditions.

I would however disagree, with the current global economies including China heading into difficulties, I think metal price will continue to slide.

I think FXPO will head to 50p.

Crikey 50p thats incredible if it happens.

No support here .

Its in freefall just like yesterday afternoon.

Yes, mitzy...FXPO is showing more weakness and 50p very likely on the cards.

Touched 110p before rallying to 120p...damn those shorters.

Wall St down 3% tonight its a tough one..it could go 50p.

Mitzy and hyleo, do u think this will go to 50p...I'm nervous cos I've some of this.

In a typical business cycle share prices & commodity prices fall when economies enter recession. Short term interest rates peak & bond yields top out. Inflation increases. When recovery starts, share prices will start to rise but commodity prices normally stay weak. When interest rates fall & inflation also starts to fall, then commodity prices start to pick up.
So, normally only when an economy is starting the recovery cycle do commodity prices start increasing. If you haven't already sold, it is my opinion that there is further to fall, so you could now hold these for recovery, which could be at least 12+ months away, imo.

Thanks Harry for the advice, think I will cut my losses and sell.

The biggest shareholder, Kostyantin Zhevago, in Ukrainian iron ore producer Ferrexpo has sold a 20 percent stake in FXPO.

Incredible...got out last Monday...otherwise suffer more loss. 50p on the way, as u guys said.

Complete disaster after todays news.

I hope you're not in FXPO, mitzy...remember the 50p target I told you.


Ferrexpo defers growth projects - MoneyAM


Swiss headquartered resources company Ferrexpo, principally involved in the production of iron ore pellets, today unveiled a 12.4% rise in Q3 output and said it deferred a decision on investing in growth projects due to fragile market conditions.

'Given the current uncertainties in financial and commodity markets, the board has deferred decisions on the ultimate investment in these projects until the end of the first quarter of 2009,' the company said in a statement today.

The firm has previously said it was looking for a joint venture partner and would make a decision in the fourth quarter.

The growth projects are the centrepiece of plans by Ferrexpo, which owns one of the biggest iron ore resources in the world, to raise production nearly fourfold to around 100 million tonnes by 2018.

Iron ore pellet output for the three months to end September rose to 2.51 million tonnes from 2.23 million tonnes last year.

It said it expected production for the year to be broadly in line with previous guidance while cost pressures were easing.

Ferrexpo, the world's 12th-largest producer of iron ore pellets, used in the production of steel, doubled its first-half earnings per share on the back of record prices and shortly afterwards launched a share buyback to return excess cash to shareholders.

Last week, Ferrexpo's majority owner announced it had sold a 20.8% stake at a big discount to the main shareholder of Czech coal producer New World Resources to satisfy a loan agreement.

Fevamotinico, controlled by Ukrainian billionaire Kostyantin Zhevago, said it retained a 51% stake in Ferrexpo following the divestment at 86p a share, 30% below London-listed Ferrexpo's closing price the previous trading day.

Currently 76p...sell out

i am afraid it looks as though you holders have been badly stiffed by the majority owner

Continue sell FXPO at 63p.

Could this one fall to 10p I think so.

What happened to Citibanks 430p valuation.

52p now that is the lowest yet I dont know.

If Citibank valued this at 4.30 then that gives you a measure of them!
Was there ever a dividend?
+I must say I don't like foreign companies listed here....just how much iron-ore is there in Switzerland?

I read (above) they were using Share buy-backs to enhance shareholder-value - - - that's a sure sign - avoid!

hyleo was right re 50p they must be in big trouble.

flipping heck tucker...!

yes, mitzy for showing confidence in me.

Yes good call hlyeo cant see any growth here best to sell.

No support here on a positive day...best to sell.

i would have agreed, except a littke voiuce warns against it ...... the following is dated a week ago .....NWR said that it would pay 126.6m ($217.5m), or 86p a share, for the stake in Ferrexpo acquired this month by NWR's majority shareholder, RPG Industries, the investment vehicle of the Czech billionaire Zdenek Bakala.

already down to 40p. Even worse than what I thought.

Touched 38p early on I guess 20p would b right.

Seems to stablised @39p worth a gamble..?

Bought in.

moving up may get 40p today.

moving up strongly dcb maybe.

dcb?? whats that

a cat thats dead that bounces.

cheers for info......bit of a jump last 30mins or so.........do u think it will plummet again mitzy?

well hopefully it reached the bottom yesterday and will rise back to 60p again.

This is a great opportunity to buy shares 1/10 th of the price .

this is a great opportunity to keepyour brain in gear and avoid!

Yes its Guy Fawlkes night..

How does a 2bill company floated a year ago become a 200m one its a mystery to me
Sure its a gamble @39p but at this price its an option of them not going broke.

because the holder of the 85% stock saw a good way to bank a fortune

True he made a mint and good luck to him.

fine if you don't mind sp being totally manipulated and investors gulled

Well it certainly fooled me cynic but then again nothing surprises me these days.

Double bottom alert..

are you talking of your own?

indeed I am.

does that mean you are unable to fit into cattle class seats?

I'm flying Ryan air next week for the 1st time not bad 60 euros.

.

.

fine if you don't want to take luggage and God help you if it gets misrouted as happened to my friend between London and Glasgow ..... Ryanair were not remotely interested ..... bunch of shits!

Making a proft @39p now I feel so much relieved.

mitzy make sure you have good travel insurance ryanair emergency landing in Rome today.

Yes I just saw that halifax hope everyone was ok..

Apparently yes.... years ago they used to say coffee stains on your food tray were a sign of poor engine maintenance, but I don't suppose ryanair serves coffee.

lol I bet they dont..


made 3p a share now a gamble for me last week but I'm confident they are worth 50p.

Out for a 30% loss incredible.

sorry to hear that mitzy, but i am afraid i did say this was a very dodgy outfit .... at least you had the sense to cut

Thanks cynic yes best to cut and fight another day..

I have had a lucky escape if this continues much longer they will be 5p.

thank goodness you cut .... more horror all round tomorrow i fear

yes cynic the Dow is determined to hit 6500 and Ftse 3400 then is the time to buy until then just watch.

Great value.

FXPO is a BUY now at 26p. Very good value.

shares in this company can never be a good buy so long as they are controlled in the way they are ..... too easily mmanipulated as has happened in the recent past

FXPO is going up again...BUY...now 30p

Going up by 10% each day. Good stuff.

FXPO are presenting in London next Thursday evening!

For FREE registration, click HERE

Free to attend, and you can chat to management over drinks and canapes afterwards,
in a friendly, informal, and very social atmosphere.

This one is going all the way .

The directors of Gold Resource Corp (NYSE: GORO), Ferrexpo (LSE: FXPO), LonZim PLC (AIM: LZM) and Ovoca Gold (AIM: OVG) will be presenting:
Thursday the 21st October 2010,
Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, 35 Charles Street, Mayfair, W1J 5EB

The presentations will start at 6:00pm and finish at approx 8:00pm. After the presentations are complete the directors will also be available to take questions during a free canapand wine reception. Details on the presenting companies can be found below.

This event is suitable for the following:
Sophisticated & private investors, private client brokers, fund managers, financial institutions, hedge funds, buy & sell side analysts and journalists.


FREE registration - http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/91

Today - Friday, April 15, 10:11 AM Capping off a week of bearish calls, Goldman Sachs expects hard assets to underperform for the next 3-6 months, citing "mounting downside risks" to current high crude oil prices - signs of U.S. "demand destruction," Nigerian elections, potential Libyan ceasefire. But it maintains its overweight allocation on a 12-month horizon due to "tightening fundamentals" over the next year.

http://seekingalpha.com/currents/search?query=goldman+sachs

From Yesterday....

Goldman Moves To Underweight On Commodities

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 23:58 -0400

CopperCrudeCrude Oil


Nobody could have seen this one coming: "Mounting downside risks to current exceptionally high crude oil prices are leading us to recommend an underweight allocation to commodities on a 3 to 6-month horizon, but we maintain an overweight on a 12-month horizon on tightening fundamentals over the next year....Not only are there now nascent signs of demand destruction in the United States, but also elections in Nigeria, a potential ceasefire in Libya and record market length on contagion fears. Further, softening near-term base metals balances suggest that a stock-out in copper inventories and associated price spikes has now been deferred beyond 2011, and recent gold price strength has pushed us close to our near-term price targets. As a result, we now recommend an underweight allocation to commodities on a 3 to 6-month horizon." Translation: please line up and convert your hard assets for dilutable fiat courtesy of the good folks doing god's work.

Taken out a short. Tecnically and fundies look weak at moment.

FXP Ferrexpo

Looks the ideal trade set up here so
just taken it after non farm pay
rolls beat in US.

Fundys sound aswel.



Trades on a forward P/E to just over 5 to 2012
far too cheap.

Ferrexpo PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Edison Investment Research
29-02-12 None 353.07 50.69 4.04 316.74 45.49 4.04
Seymour Pierce
01-02-12 BUY 446.52 64.12 4.28 432.89 62.70 4.48
Evolution Securities Ltd
05-12-11 BUY 432.68 61.30 4.43 453.96 64.28 5.07

2011 2012
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 421.68 60.29 4.28 414.31 59.45 4.57
1 Month Change -5.19 -0.72 -0.02 -7.54 -1.07 -0.04
3 Month Change -0.83 -0.19 0.07 -10.31 -1.97 0.00


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS 505.98% 28.95% -1.39%
DPS -0.49% 0.73% 6.87%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA £349.82m £495.33m £497.75m
EBIT £346.23m £478.13m £459.70m
Dividend Yield 1.34% 1.35% 1.45%
Dividend Cover 11.01x 14.09x 13.00x
PER 6.76x 5.24x 5.31x
PEG 0.01f 0.18f -3.83f
Net Asset Value PS 80.71p 153.88p 212.03p

Hemscott Premium.

Broker upgrade out lunchtime

12:14 FLASH: Numis initiates buy on Ferrexpo, target price 400p

FXPO


Ferrexpo is quality business, which continues to improve, says Numis

3:39 pm by Giles Gwinnett Barker pointed out that Numis conservatively assumed production would grow from 10 million tonnes per year last year to 22 million tonnes per year in 2016 as Yeristovo comes on line FTSE 250 iron ore producer Ferrexpo (LON:FXPO) is a quality business that continues to improve, according to broker Numis, which has initiated coverage on the stock.

The broker begins covering the Ukraine operating firm with a 'buy' stance and 400 pence price target.

Analyst Cailey Barker said the company had one of the largest iron ore reserves in the world at 20 billion tonnes and was looking to grow from its current 10 million tonne per year Poltava mine, known as FPM, with the addition of Yeristovo (FYM) in 2013, and potentially Belanovskoye (FBM) in the future.

"FXPO is a conservative business with a strong track record," said Barker.

"It continues to improve, securing its supply chain with better logistics, upgrading its product quality into high value pellets, and expanding its sales into growth markets."

Barker pointed out that Numis conservatively assumed production would grow from 10 million tonnes per year last year to 22 million tonnes per year in 2016 as Yeristovo comes on line.

FXPO has a strong balance sheet with net debt of around $80mln, and healthy gearing of 6 per cent, the broker believes.

"We expect the company to continue to manage its finances well and remain fully-financed for its expansion plans," said Barker.

Looking at the iron ore market, the analyst added: "Despite recent softening and jitters over Chinese growth, we expect a tight market and strong industrial demand to keep prices buoyant but volatile over the next few years.

"We also expect prices to remain elevated to incentivise development of large scale projects as financing conditions and macroeconomic effects continue to bite."

Barker also noted that the firm was relatively cheap - currently trading below the peer group at around 5.7 times 2012 price/earnings and 2.9 times EV/EBITDA, compared to the group average at 10.3 times and 4.0 times respectively

FXPO Ferrexpo

Brokers like the stock...

Forward P/E of 5.7 2012.... WAY TOO CHEAP.

Ferrexpo PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Numis Securities Ltd
09-03-12 BUY 415.53 58.60 5.08 338.38 47.54 5.08
Edison Investment Research
29-02-12 None 353.07 50.69 4.04 316.74 45.49 4.04
Seymour Pierce
01-02-12 BUY 446.52 64.12 4.28 432.89 62.70 4.48
Evolution Securities Ltd
05-12-11 BUY 432.68 61.30 4.43 453.96 64.28 5.07

2011 2012
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 423.29 60.19 4.62 387.68 55.24 4.80

1 Month Change -3.14 -0.76 0.33 -33.39 -5.18 0.19
3 Month Change 0.78 -0.29 0.41 -36.94 -6.18 0.23


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS 505.98% 28.74% -8.22%
DPS -0.49% 8.88% 3.85%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA £349.82m £486.39m £450.12m
EBIT £346.23m £209.34m £408.35m
Dividend Yield 1.33% 1.45% 1.51%
Dividend Cover 11.01x 13.02x 11.50x
PER 6.82x 5.30x 5.77x
PEG 0.01f 0.18f -0.70f
Net Asset Value PS 80.71p 153.88p 212.03p

Broker Note out.....


Ferrexpo

FTSE 250
Basic Materials
Hold
440
320.3
37.4%
Otkritie Capital

Target SP 440p Upside 37.4%

Going like the clappers today here.

Beat forecasts easily.......

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201203140700192969Z

BRIEF-Ferrexpo 2011 EBITDA climbs 37 percent
14 Mar 2012 - 07:03

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - Ferrexpo PLC :

* Miner Ferrexpo says 2011 EBITDA $801 million versus $585 million

year-ago, up 37 percent

* Miner Ferrexpo says 2011 profit before tax $691 million versus $498

million year-ago

* Miner Ferrexpo says final dividend 3.3 cents per share

* Miner Ferrexpo says growth projects progressng as planned, first ore

from FYM end of 2012

* Says market prices for iron ore have moderated so far in 2012, believes they

will be above average historic levels

((London Equities Newsroom; +44 20 7542 7717))

UPDATE 1-Ferrexpo 2011 profit climbs 37 pct, costs rise
14 Mar 2012 - 07:38

(Adds detail, background)

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - Ukrainian iron ore producer Ferrexpo posted a 37 percent rise in core profit, at the higher end of expectations, thanks to strong prices and higher sales volumes that helped offset rising costs.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) jumped to $801 million, compared to forecasts of $772 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Profit before tax rose 39 percent to $691 million.........

Ferrexpo, the Ukraine-focused iron ore pellet producer, managed to maintain production levels in the first half but is still struggling with tough price conditions.

Production at the group’s Poltava mine for the six months to the end of June was 4.7m tonnes of pellets against 4.8m in the same period of last year.

Revenues came in at $731m, down 15% on the first half of 2011, while profits before tax were 52% lower at $169m.

The interim dividend has been maintained at 3.3 cents per share.

Ferrexpo’s Chairman, Michael Adams said: "...the iron ore market has been volatile with market prices for iron ore down 20%.

"Ferrexpo, however, has continued to enjoy solid demand for its pellets with the average pellet price for the period down by only 12%. Lower pricing combined with higher raw material costs has reduced profits from the record level of 2011.”

It is all about the price of iron ore.
Iron ore has dropped in price significantly recently.
See web site "indexmundi.com".
When iron ore price improve, so will FXPO, but may take a few months.

FXPO is a share I really like, and I think is very cheap,
but it all comes back to iron ore price.
One to watch and buy into when life improves

I've shorted this yesterday at 180p when support broken.

Looks like it will be moving lower again ... now 160p

148p now.

Not too sure but I suspect they'll need to raise if they've lost the money in the bank that is in receivership. As ever the short vultures are onto this in a big way sensing blood. Sorry for all holders, always thought it was a sell just based on iron ore price declines.

Best to sell imo.

says it all about iron ore demand falling away...

http://news.sky.com/story/1554951/teesside-steel-plant-to-pause-operations

Off another 25% today sorry for all holders.

nothing to do with price of iron ore, but the very dodgy bank which they were using has gone into liquidation ..... if i saw the story correctly, this bank is owned by the chairman of fxpo

Well my comment re iron ore demand waning was more to do with the fact FXPO may be able to survive the cash loss if the iron ore price was what it was 2 years back with strong demand. It is now of course the opposite scenario.

The constant new low in the price of Zinc tells us easily enough where world demand for steel is headed. Grim times.

while you guys were snoozing or waffling, you missed a very exciting day here
in fact, i think it all started to kick off about a week ago (could check but can't bothered)

chart at the top tells it all

hope all you chaps are already out of this one
sp now tumbling hard as the lemmings abandon ship

StockMarketWire.com
Ferrexpo has reinstated dividends after a strong performance in the year to the end of December in 'very challenging conditions'.

EBITDA rose 20% to US$375m (2015: US$313m) on higher revenues and lower costs.

Operating profit, excluding foreign exchange gains, increased buy 36% to US$307m and profit before tax rose by US$206m to US$231m.

Net cash flows from operating activities increased by 159%, or US$204m, to US$332m and net debt was reduced by 32% to US$589m at 31 December.

Other highlights:
- Cash balance increased by US$110m to US$145m as of 31 December 2016 (31 December 2015: US$35m)

- Dividend reinstated - final ordinary dividend of 3.3 US cents per share proposed (2015: nil) and special dividend of 3.3 US cents per share (2015: nil) payable on the 11 April 2017

Non-executive chairman Steve Lucas said: "In 2016, Ferrexpo demonstrated the strength of its business model and management team.

"In very challenging market conditions, where the iron ore price traded at eight year lows, the Group increased its net cash flows from operations by over 1.5 times to US$332 million compared to 2015.

"This allowed it to significantly reduce its financial leverage and strengthen its balance sheet. Net debt to EBITDA for the last 12 months was 1.57x compared to 2.78x as of 31 December 2015.

"Due to the Group's strong financial performance together with a positive outlook for 2017, I am pleased to announce a return to dividends.

"The iron ore pellet industry continues to have high barriers to entry given the capital intensity of new investment while demand for high grade ore, including pellet, remains strong.

"Ferrexpo is one of the largest iron ore pellet exporters in the world by volume and benefits from a well-invested asset base, a competitive cost position and a diversified high quality customer portfolio.

"The average 62% Fe iron ore fines price in 1Q 2017 (as of 20 March 2017) was approximately US$86 per tonne compared to the average of US$58 per tonne in 2016, while Ferrexpo's average pellet premium for 2017 is expected to be in line with the PLATTS Atlantic long-term contract pellet premium less adjustments for quality.

"The pellet premium has steadily recovered from lows seen in 1Q 2016 and now reflects tight market conditions. Costs remain subject to commodity prices, the Hryvnia exchange rate and inflation levels in Ukraine.

"Cash generation to date in 2017, has been strong and we expect the Group's net debt to EBITDA to improve further during the year.

"On the whole, these factors underpin a positive outlook for 2017."

Barclays comment today:
"Ferrexpo released a robust set of results this morning, with EBITDA coming in exactly in line with our forecast and +1% vs. consensus. EPS of 34c however was 10% light of our estimate due to higher tax rate of 18% vs. our assumed 13%. FY revenue was 1% ahead of our estimate on slightly better H2 realized price of $93/t vs. our estimated $86.4/t. C1 cost performance was decent, coming in at $29.7/t in H2, up 16% HoH and 2% below our estimate of $30.4/t. Unit costs were under upward pressure due to higher oil prices, lower production, flat FX and rising domestic inflation. As a result EBITDA rose 37% HoH in H2.
Cashflow performance strong: it had pre-reported a cash balance of $145m at Dec-16 vs. $44m at Jun-16 (+$101m) net of c.$75m of debt maturities. This was confirmed by the release with $166m FCF in 2H16 vs. $118m in 1H16, benefiting from $24m tax refunds into working capital. As a result net debt declined from $753m at June to $589m as of December, well below our forecast of $639m (consensus $632m). ND/EBITDA fell to 1.6x vs. 2.4x at June 2016 (1H annualized). The balance sheet is much improved with $201m of maturities due in 2017, to be met from cash balances of $145m and our forecast 2017 FCF of $204m. This should leave the company in a position to potentially refinance its bonds over the course of 2017 to address the $263m of maturities falling due in 1H18.
Surprise dividend reinstatement: on the back of strong cashflow generation FXPO has reinstated dividends at 3.3USc/sh (c.$19m) plus a special dividend of 3.3c/sh equivalent to a total yield of 6.7%. The dividend policy going forward is to pay a base divi of c.$40m (6.6c/sh) per year split equally between an interim and final dividend. This is in-line with dividends paid through 2008-11 (2012-14 was doubled to 13.2c/h including special). On top of the base level, if appropriate, special dividends will be paid from excess cash flows with management targeting a figure around c.$40m per year (6.6c/sh). The prospects for special dividends look demanding relative to our forecast $204m FCF (using $62.5/t CFR 62%) given $201m maturities and $145m cash, but more feasible on spot ($485m FCF).
Other guidance: cashflow generation in early 2017 is described as “strong”, pellet premiums in 1Q17 have recovered strongly, and development capex spend is expected to increase. Ferrexpo currently has one approved project to increase concentrate output by approximately 1.5mtpa for $50m, which will be incurred in 2017 and 2018. This compares to 2016 capex of $48m (all sustaining).

JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its overweight investment rating on Ferrexpo PLC (LON:FXPO) and raised its price target to 220p (from 215p).