Better carry on here Cynic....not in yet but very interesting....how's that bridge across to China getting on ?

spoil sport! ..... anyway, to save everyone pestering, i'll post some charts here

for anyone who would like to catch up on background and views, please refer back to the "old" thread under TIO which was the former epic for ORE, aka by some as ORG!

Sorry Cynic....did not mean to cause any trouble !

especially for Toya! ...... sp and chart have become suitable aroused ..... let's hope that it has taken its dose of Viagra and will not suddenly detumesce!

So kind of you Cynic, to think of me! And I've even learnt a new word as a bonus

Real potential here chaps. Real potential.

have said so for a long time ..... check out thread with epic TIO which was the earlier incarnation

I know - I started the TIO thread last year :-)

Aricom are trading very close to their all time high
Time for a breakout!!

Well it was a positive trading statement so let's hope so!

what a little gem this stock has turned out to be ..... per previous thread, it's ticker should be ORG not ORE!

A splendid day today. Looking forward to tomorrow to see if the 1 barrier can be broken :-)

technically very heavily o'bought, but sp certainly has the wind in its sails at the moment

Well 1 has been broken. Consolidation above that level would be welcomed.

Expected pause for breath, but does this now represent fair value or is there more to go?

I would hope today's fall is partly due to the market shift downwards today so fair value IMO.

We could do with putting a stop to this daily slide.....

Big dilution on the way, which is presumably why the sp has continued to slide?
"LONDON (Thomson Financial) - AIM-listed Aricom Plc. has confirmed it will need in excess of $1 billion in external funds to develop its K&S and Garinskoye iron ore projects in Russia.

Morgan Stanley has been appointed to advise on securing the funding to construct and develop both projects, Aricom said in a statement."

If you look at the statement though it mentions a number of routes to the finance but doesn't mention going cap-in-hand to shareholders.

ORG (sorry - ORE!) rumbling north again, as it deserves .... glad i got back in at 85 having taken profits when ducking for cover 7/10 days ago

What about this $1 billion funding that is wanted for expansion?
How do you think this will affect things?

don't really know as it will depend to a fairly large extent on market sentiment at the time ...... however, i am currently much more interested to see whether or not sp can break back up through 25 dma at about 91

It's interesting chessplayer that although the sp has drifted the last couple of weeks it hasn't tanked following the funding announcement. That bodes well I feel......

Yes.It seems to me also,that Russia,where Aricom is based,has been one of the few regions that has held up well during the recent market turmoil.

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - "Aricom Plc. said it has completed the first iron ore sales from its Kuranakh deposit in Russia, which ot desribed as a 'milestone' in progressing to a producer from a developer.

The Anglo-Russian mineral resources developer said the Kuranakh crushing and screening plant, currently in a pre-commissioning phase, is expected to reach target throughput during the third quarter of 2008.

Aricom started mining operations at Kuranakh in Oct. 2007."

Good news HARRYCAT.

The shares are having a bad time lately Down about 35% from their recent highs Any views on Aricom?

I'm still very much a fan chessplayer as I think they have great potential on their own or will be snapped up by a bigger player. The sp drop is very frustrating but in line with many other shares at present.

Sp sailed down past the 50 & 200 DMA on the chart. Support at 63p?
Interestingly the same thing happened last year during july & aug when the sp tanked & then recovered well.

Let's hope history does repeat itself HARRYCAT as I could do with some blue on my portfolio!

seems to have turned the corner at 64.?!Like Paul McCartney.
If I knew anything about charts,which I don't,I'd say there was plenty of upside.

I believe there is a mine to come on stream in 2009? Part of the K & S project.
200 DMA presently around the 76p mark, which would be a nice target to reach, but some kind of news from ORE might be the only way to get there, imo.
The june sale of shares probably didn't help either:
"LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Aricom Plc., the Anglo-Russian miner, said Philotus Holdings Ltd. has reduced its stake to 11.5 percent or 132.05 million shares after it sold 10 million shares at 88 pence per share.
Philotus Holdings is a company in which Peter Hambro and Pavel Maslovskiy and their associates have interests.
Following the transaction, the company said Peter Hambro and associates will hold 7.63 percent stake or 87.60 million shares, while Pavel Maslovskiy and associates will hold 7.65 percent or 87.78 million shares in the company.
Peter Hambro is the father of Jay Hambro, who owns Aricom."

something very horrible here today ..... sp has dropped nearly 20% with no explanation - yet!

Sell ORE to 40p...bad times ahead

When it started to turn yesterday,I got a bad feeling and sold at 63.What is going on anyway,they are nearly half of price of a couple of months back?

Makes you think that Peter Hambro saw something coming when he sold part of his stake.

The following is a reply received today, responding to my e-mail concerning the current sp of ORE:
"We are reporting our interim results on the 6th August (next Wed)so any comment that need to be made will be dealt with then. Peter Hambro reduced his holding by a very small percentage and is has no current plans to reduce further. It was simply to pay off a loan that was due on other business interests.

Obviously our recent share price falls are disappointing but from our point of view it is business as usual with the ongoing feasibility studies on our two major iron ore projects, the final construction of Kuranakh and the raising of debt finance during the autumn.

Regards
Charles Gordon
Investor Relations Officer

"Aricom plc (LSE: ORE, OREW), the Anglo-Russian developer of mineral resources, advises that it will be announcing its Interim Results for the half year ended 30 June 2008 on Wednesday 6th August 2008.

Aricom will be hosting an investor conference call on 6 August 2008 at 11 a.m. Participant details for this call will be included within the results announcement."

SELL Aricom...it will go below 40p.

Any particular reason, or just 'cos you are shorting it?

China's economy is slowing down already.

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - "Shares in Aricom Plc. climbed in midmorning deals, as it joined a mining stocks rally and posted a narrowed first-half loss in a positive update, leading Cazenove to keep an 'outperform' rating on the stock.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Anglo-Russian developer of mineral resources posted a reduced first-half loss of $2.5 million from $5.3 million a year ago.

It also said the construction of the Kuranakh project is scheduled to be completed in the second-quarter of 2009.

In reaction, Cazenove left an 'outperform' rating on Aricom, saying it thinks Wednesday's numbers are immaterial, given that Aricom only made one small shipment at the end of June.

Cazenove says it thinks the stock's recent fall is a result of a sector sell-off, but it thinks this statement should give reassurance on the financing front, with the company still in a comfortable net cash position and funded for the next 12 months.

It thinks short-term performance will be governed by sentiment rather than fundamentals, but longer-term it thinks the publication of revised feasibility studies for the major value-driving projects could prove to be a catalyst."

40p the 1 year low, 35p the 2 year low. Nearly there.

Not in this one but the drop like many others looks well overdone....!.

Any chance of putting a chart in the header please, rf?

I see 3 factors which maybe lowering the SP, 1. Russian conflict with Georgia, 2. raising of the new funds ($1 blln i believe), 3) General lowring of commodity prices.

However, I believe with the Hambro connections I think this is a quality co. and will come good. Have been a holder in the pass but I didn't think that the SP would come back to this level but it is a buying opportunity with so much still to cpme tp the forefront for this company in the next 12 months. I am watching but anything around 35p mark and I will be in with a large stake and with aim of long term investment. If they can secure the additional funds this will fly !!

plumben, you could add two more:-
4) Cost of energy to smelt, and
5) Cost of keeping yr hands on said mine - Russia is a no-no for me, at least until this Georgia business becomes clear.

Some say it's Russia flexing its muscles, rather like Stalin ( oh dear)
-
And others think it's just trying to hold onto..... while they can...ie anything that hasn't joined the EU.

Had Georgia joined the EU, what exactly would we have done...it's a long way andRussia has troops right there.,,,nasty business.

The sp fell qas a result of the massive financing (in these difficult times), and the Georgia issue is NOT helping...furthermore, now the Olympic constructions are done and dusted, China doesn't need so much Iron - and this will make recent (expensive) capacity look a bit dumb. Will we see 30p?

China doesn't need so much Iron ...... sorry, but that is total load of crap!

This Russian business is not going to end soon as Poland is asking for trouble letting United States set up a missile shield on Polish soils. These Polish are dumb - tempting their fate or stupidity. They are very likely to get a nuclear attack from Russia if they keep licking Bush's ar*e.

just so much sabre rattling

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - "Aricom PLC. said it has signed and received relevant formal approvals for the joint venture contract with Aluminium Corporation of China ('Chinalco') to construct a titanium sponge plant in North East China.

Aricom and Chinalco will establish the plant in Jiamusi City, Heilongjiang province, China, with an initial production capacity of 15,000 tonnes a year of titanium sponge.
Aricom said ilmenite feedstock for the plant is to be sourced exclusively from its Kuranakh mine, and Chinalco will off-take the titanium sponge to be produced by the joint venture.

The joint venture company will be owned 65 percent by Aricom and 35 percent by Chinalco with the parties contributing $69 million and $37 million respectively.
Aricom said it will fund its contribution from existing funds."

Looks like a good move.

6.8 million shares sold today in one trade at 32.63p
Looking a bit grim.

I have a new header for Aricom -Ore -Down and Out! It seems scarcely credible that this share was over 1. several months back.The shit certainly has hit the fan.

Makes you think that Peter Hambro's sale of stock a few months back was more than mere coincidence.

Chessplayer, I can't put a header like that in ...that would not be fair....when you start a new thread, it really should be a little optimistic !.

Well, I guess the truth is that most of the mining stocks have been clobbered,good and proper,

anyone still think this a buy?
I only ask as Garry White, Editor, Smart Commodities UK seems to think this a good bet for the future forecasting ~400% rise.
had to read between the lines and search the web as wasn't about to pay for his newsletter and he doesn't name the company in it either.[logical really or people wouldn't pay]

http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/page.aspx?u=scu0908cpp&tc=ESCUJ911&PromotionID=2147065780&u=584358&g=0&o=31519&l=160104&


anyone care to comment? Pumben did you take the plunge at the 35p mark?

Alex

it ought to have outstanding prospects, but all miners are getting clobbered, and the fact that its "father" had pretty poor results will reflect badly

credit suisse bought in!

Credit suisse must be making a mistake...ORE is 23p...and copper price is dropping as world economies are collapsing

also, isnt ore in russia? if it is, then thats bad news too

and ORE is not into copper ... or am i even more misinformed than usual?

ORE is in Russia, on the border with China, supplying iron ore direct to the chinese market.

and titanium oxide i think

17p now

I was listening to Aricom ceo this a.m. on Bloomberg.
The real issue at the mo revolves around the ability to secure the 1 b funding for the development of their various iron ore projects.
He is hopeful of securing some of the dosh from the likes of tool hire companies

Now,however the sp is down by about 90% from a few months ago.

Told you credit suisse made a mistake.

Unbelievable....this was 100p or so ..not that long ago....the world has gone mad !.

A projects update from Anglo-Russian mineral resources developer Aricom raised funding issues, according to Citigroup.

In a statement, Jay Hambro, Aricom CEO, said 'Aricom has succeeded in proving the viability of K&S and Garinskoye in a number of scenarios and has also had the analysis independently reviewed.'

'The funding process now begins in earnest as we progress discussions to the next step with the banks, contractors and other partners,' Hambro adds.

'We have had a number of preliminary finance discussions and I believe that, with our bankable feasibility studies confirming the strength of these projects, we can move the financing process forward with confidence,' the Aricom CEO said.

'In the short term, further solutions for reducing development plans in line with available capital are being considered,' he adds.

In reaction, Citigroup says it sees 'significant value in the projects if they can be executed, however, they will require around $1bn in funding so current credit environment presents a serious risk of project delay.'

The broker says it repeats its 'hold' rating on Aricom as the share price has now fallen below the company's net cash position of 19p a share so it thinks the stock should see support here.

Also being in Russia is not the ideal location.Anyone for Russian roulette?

Three Directors buying today at approx 0.177 per share.

Good news

Harry,please elicidate!!!!!!!!!!!

JAY HAMBRO purchase 110,000 shares @ 0.177052 09/10/08
YURI MAKAROV purchase 110,000 shares @ 0.177052 09/10/08
BRIAN EGAN purchase 107,622 shares @ 0.1858 09/10/08

at 13p Ore's market cap is less than cash in the bank!!!!

Crazy, crazy, crazy.

There are many like this....those with cash could mint it !, but the question is when ?.

Rf
i have cash, only because i sold quite some time ago.
i changed my paper profits into real profits.ie. cash sitting safely in my bank account.
lol what am i saying?
stop losses did it.
regards
jkd

Thanks jkd....you sound like a wise old owl...in future I wll have strict stop losses....in the meantime...I could do with an oil price recovery !.

No, oil price rises will only lead to rising inflation and more job losses.

Surely a huge rise must be on the cards here!The drop of is now over90%,and falling today despite a lot of buying.

19p was the last price I saw considered to be fair value.
Also looks like they are possibly having financing problems.

9.9p...doesn't look at all good...it's becoming a junk share.

j
toxic seems to be the new in word, but maybe junk is more appropriate.
at least with junk the rampers can keep up their games of pass the parcel.
selling into contrived ramped spikes.
maybe toxic is safer lol.
just to put the record straight. when i mentioned earlier that i sold out quite some time ago i was was speaking generally, not specifically,
as i have never been a holder of this share
regards to all.
jkd

ORE is less than 8p now.

the share price has now fallen below the company's net cash position of 19p a share. Does this mean if the co. went bust tomorrow you would [eventually ] get 19p per share?

I like the potential for this share once China's industry restarts after the credit crunch.
I am just trying to decide what is a good price to get in at. I am not in any great hurry as they have to raise a large sum of money first, which in this climate may prove difficult. On the other hand I dont want to miss the boat[wish I had hindsight]
Alex

Might find foresight would be more usefull! ;o)

HC
alas unfortunately a lot more difficult to find :(
Alex

This is another crazy sp unbelievable knock down.....not in this ....but does it matter ?, no...I'm being stuffed on others....unthinkable these drops a year ago !.

mr.mandelson can help to stuff u too if u want!! he's back in town

This is certainly a stock where I hope to STUFF a few in my pocket in the near future.,but look at the falls in this sector,Xtrata for instance !

less than 7p...going to 3p , I think

And this is a main market share.....do you know what....I think we will end up with hedge funds buying back in to the market with so many incredible bargains around !.

Down 27.96% at 11:40.However, this fall has nothing whatever to do with buying and selling ,as the majority are buys!
just another indication of the lunacy gripping the market at the mo!

100p to 6p !!!!????.

The fall that I was referring to was the daily one ,now 24%,and based on 3.0m buys versus 2.3 million sells.

Might be the time to get in?!
The mining stocks are up strongly today.Might be the turning point.This one is down about 95% from its@ high

Up 24% today,so have bought a few of these.

anyone know why these are flying today?

Probably 'cos they are regularly heavily traded during the day. 7m traded so far this morning, but they go down as fast as they come up.

possibly just bear closing

At any rate,its been a long time since I had a 60% profit in one day!
Tadpole was the last about 12 years ago.
But ,haven't Aricom been well and truly oversold?

I thought so, though I have taken my profit.

This should help to explain the more than doubling of Aricoms' share price today.
RNS Number : 0662H
Aricom PLC
30 October 2008









Press Release
30th October 2008





Aricom plc

('Aricom')

Share price movement







Aricom (LSE: ORE, OREW), the Anglo-Russian developer of mineral resources, notes the movement in its share price today and the announcement yesterday that the Russian and Chinese authorities have reached agreement on a proposal for the construction of the first railway bridge between the countries. Aricom expects that if the bridge is constructed, it is likely to result in a saving of approximately US$4.0 per tonne of iron ore in transport costs. Aricom is also currently considering whether or not to tender for the contract to construct the bridge.







For further information:

Aricom plc



Charlie Gordon, Investor Relations Officer
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7201 8939



www.aricom.plc.uk

Abchurch



Charlie Jack/ George Parker
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7398 7700









This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

where will this stop today,and will it continue tomorrow at the same rate.

17m traded with almost a 50/50 split. May well be another rise tomorrow if trading is brisk, but friday selloff is on the cards, imo.

this damn bridge isn't even built yet ..... indeed, it has only got to the tendering stage, so it looks to me as though ORE have a long long time to wait for any benefit .... whether or not the share is intrinsically worth more than its current 14p is another argument altogether

Yes, I agree. The saving is approx $40m per year but that is way off & you could argue that that saving is now reflected in the price. Seems to be a case of any good news is welcome, regardless of how relevant to the company's value.

too difficult to call as the price moves up temptation grows to hold,

hold - yes ..... buy - no

Don,t forget,that the Russian stock market has fallen from 2,400 to 600 in the past few months ,so some recovery is on the cards.They are now in the 800 area I believe.

dont forget ore net cash value is 19p share

This is too fragile to hold, it has drop back.

Oh great! Thanks hlyeo. Now that you are shorting it, back to 5p we go! ;o)

Dont think it will go to 5p,i would think more than 20p could be the fairer value,its been another roller coster of a day.

Considering that the share rose by 133% !! yesterday ,todays pullback of 14% (2 points) is hardly unexpected.
I reckon their is distance to go here,especially in view of a bit of a recovery in mining.

and that's what so damn stupid about quoting % moves, as a 2p move at yesterday's opening would have constituted about 40%!

33% to be precise. Still,despite yesterdays fall there was a good deal of buyers about.
How do you feel about this one now cynic.You were quite an enthusiastic supporter a while back.
The key obviously has to be the ability to gain financing from somewhere or other.

i was an unequivocal fan, but POG, it's parent, has also fallen badly out of favour, so i am currently more comfortable being out ...... i suspect or am almost sure that ORE has a good future, but as we all know, commodity prices have collapsed of late, and that includes iron ore, and until we see a proper recovery underway, i do not think this is a company or even sector into which one should put new money.

by the way, it's worth just keeping an occasional eye on the baltic index which will give you a good clue as to where things are heading.

i am expecting more - already made a packet end last week - in for more and already well up - 20p + easy soon! gl

BRIEF-Aricom confident on in line 2008
AFX


LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Aricom PLC:

* Remains confident that 2008 production will be in line with the most recently

published forecast

((London Equities Newsroom; +44 20 7542 7717))



(For more news, please click here)



COPYRIGHT



Copyright Thomson Reuters 2008. All rights reserved.

production or profitability? ..... big difference!!

Question?
Where is the best place to look to view chart movements of metal and mineral prices?

Try top of the page at http://www.thebulliondesk.com for metals.

Thanks Harry

LME must have a site, and Kitco certainly does

"Aricom, the Anglo-Russian developer of mineral resources, is pleased to announce that it has entered into a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding ('MoU') with China Metallurgical Group Corporation ('MCC'), one of the largest equipment manufacturers in China and a leading Chinese contractor to the metals and mining industry.

The MoU relates to the construction of Aricom's proposed 10mtpa iron ore beneficiation plant to be located at the Group's K&S project. The MoU provides the basis for discussions between Aricom and MCC concerning the signing of an engineering, procurement and construction agreement ('EPC' contract) based on an internationally recognised form of contract (such as the International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC)) for fixed price, EPC/turnkey projects.

MCC is the leading state construction company in China with a focus on EPC, engineering services, equipment fabrication and resources investment. It has undertaken construction contracts for a significant number of iron ore and steel projects in China.

Jay Hambro, Chief Executive of Aricom, commented:

'I am pleased that Aricom has entered into this memorandum with MCC, which is the largest state contractor in China. Despite the current financial market volatility, I believe in the strength of our project portfolio and any resulting construction contract would be a significant step forward for the development of the Aricom project portfolio'"

Sounds pretty good Harry,though I understand that the Russian stock market was suspended yet again today after hefty falls.

"Aricom plc announces that it is making changes to the operational plan for the Kuranakh project in response to current market conditions.

Operations at Kuranakh involve mining, crushing and screening in order to generate a pre-concentrate. During 2008, Aricom has been selling the pre-concentrate at prices which have generated a positive contribution. The Olekma beneficiation plant, once commissioned, will upgrade and divide this pre-concentrate into iron ore (titanomagnetite) and ilmenite concentrates.

Given the current market conditions, the Board believes that the value of the project, as a whole, is best served by suspending sales of pre-concentrate to await commissioning of the Olekma plant in mid-2009 and, in the meantime, scaling back mining activities in order to minimise operating costs. Aricom expects that the capital expenditure required to finalise the Kuranakh project will be c.US$30m.

Commenting on this announcement, Jay Hambro, Chief Executive, said:
'Realising initial income from Kuranakh has been a considerable advantage and it is unfortunate that the market no longer supports the economic value in sales of pre-concentrate. Despite this short term setback, we are confident that the Kuranakh project will be a profitable contributor to the Aricom portfolio when the Olekma plant is commissioned in 2009 to realise sales of the higher margin iron ore and ilmenite concentrates even in this depressed market for all commodities.' "

What are the prospects now for Aricom?
All the bad news must surely be there!

don't expect a recovery any time soon i'm afraid

Is the problem twofold?

1)The Russian "political" issue, - that puts such operations into uncertanty

2)The CommodityMarket issue, - that no-one wants raw materials - there being plenty availably from the usual sources.

It matters very little what their business model is, quality of materials etc...for a combination of these two issues could render the value to zero - and I suspect the Market has got it about right in the circumstances. I don't hold this.

Also , their ability to gain the necessary funding has to be a major concern.One for the back burner?

very heavy volume today, feels like news is coming!!!

Statement re Possible Offer

"Aricom plc ('Aricom' or the 'Company') notes the recent share price movement and confirms that it is in preliminary discussions with Peter Hambro Mining Plc ('Peter Hambro') which may or may not lead to an all share offer being made for the Company at a substantial premium to the current share price.

There is no certainty that any offer will be forthcoming. A further announcement will be made in due course as appropriate."

The Pak Man or Shark game has started.....one of many to come these next 2 years....not in as yet and finding it difficult to put a valuation on this !.

Whatever price Peter Hambro offer they will be getting Aricom on the cheap. Admittedly raw material prices are down and Aricom need investment but they are a top class operation with an excellent asset that will be priceless when raw material prices rise again which they will do at some point in the future.

and who owned ORE previously? ..... well, POG of course! ... almost like the saying about a whore, "You got it; you sell; you still got it!"

Kenmare (KMR main market as well) rising also in sympathy ? could be the start of a big takeover year !.

that news came a bit quicker than expected.

just need the chinese to counter-offer now then its off to HRCO.

news of a bid and the SP drops?? admittedly a father son deal but won't get go ahead unless good for companies concerned

The other point to consider is that it doesn't look likely that it will be an all cash offer. "The consideration for any such offer would comprise shares in Peter Hambro Mining." Although the assets of POG would increase if the offer goes ahead, would shareholders in POG see this as dilution?

i recollect that it is likely to be a shares only offer

Is this a bail out for ORE shareholders? If so it can't be a good move for POG shareholders, incest springs to mind.

POG almost certainly made mega-bucks when spinning off ORE and will almost certainly now be buying back cheaper ...... prob good solution all round

This can be put in an Isa.....those that were in low down must have done well....but there is a problem withh staying in if that is the case (being in an Isa) with this stock that I can foresee : POG is not main market which means they will take ORE possibly out of the main stream !, now, I don't know all the rules to Isa's (does anybody?), but the inland revenue might insist on the funds coming out of an Isa in this case....those in this situation might not be able to reinvest the same amount within the Isa wrappage !.

rumours on afn saying 18p is the done price and news this week..

seems a bit cheap for me.

Far too cheap if true.

????? .... discount of only 2.5-3p does not sound excessive to me, especially as all share deal mooted

20% rise today. I assume news on the way??? Will be interesting to see if POG takes a hit when the figures for the takeover are revealed.

not long now, maybe Monday.

it was very active today with some chunky buys going through.

Current sp 21.50p, which presumably means that the original 18p target was a bit low as a takeover price?

as share deal, presumably reflects POG's recent sp strength

i read on some board a calculation tht the price would be nearer 40p

if the terms of the deal have been published, then it is a simple calc ..... if not, then it is pure hype and bunkum

Quite a tricky decision at the moment. Some of my holding is in profit, some is not. Averaging over my whole holding, 29p is break even target. But maybe having POG shares at a discount price (?) would be an even better option. However, I already hold POG, so do I want more? 40p for my ORE holding would do very nicely, thank you. Cash in the bank.

rely on the "hype and bunkum" then

I have seen many share prices driven up by hype, only to fall back when reality sets in. I will put a limit sell on the system & hope that the hype triggers it before the offer price is announced.

Current sp appears very close to ORE's NAV surely some premium is required for an offer to be acceptable?

why? ..... i should imagine that ORE's NAV is totally dependant upon the market price of iron ore and the other stuff they mine, whose name i forget (used for making paint)

Ilmenite,estimated cash balances as as 31/12/08 $250m.

titanium sponge

am i being uncommonly thick even for me, but isn't ORE's sp (buy at 26) showing far to great a discount even taking into account POG's tumble this morning and that the deal has not yet been actually agreed? ..... for all that, father and son not sorting out a deal???? .... i think not

Presumably you bought ORE this morning via CFD, Cynic?
In which case will you have to cash in before the POG/ORE deal is finalised? I assume a cash profit rather than POG shares is what you are targeting?

i bought a modest number at 26, as it can all go wrong as we know ..... i think that as i have bought CFDs, i shall be obliged to cash in though i may be wrong .... not exactly sure how these things work

looks as though the deal is pretty well done at 16:1 ..... goody goody!

Under the terms of the Merger:
Aricom Shareholders will receive one fully paid New Peter Hambro Mining Share in exchange for 16 fully paid Aricom Shares

above is extracted from the latest POG rns and is the recommended offer, so not yet absolute

"Under the terms of the Merger:
Aricom Shareholders will receive one fully paid New Peter Hambro Mining Share in exchange for 16 fully paid Aricom Shares; and

each Aricom Share is valued at 36.6 pence (using the closing price per Peter Hambro Mining Share on 4 February 2009 of 585 pence); and

each Aricom share is valued at 24.9 pence (using the price per Peter Hambro Mining Share on 8 January 2009 (being the last day prior to the start of the offer period) of 398 pence."

Does this mean that the price paid will be 30.75p (averaged)? Not sure I understand why 2 different prices have been quoted.

no price; just shares at 16:1 ..... valuation is just illustration

Thanks, though many people must be considering the options. Sell out before the takeover or accept the terms. I was therefore trying to figure out where the ORE sp would rise to based on the valuation calculation. So based on the figures in my post #169, is it correct that 30.75p is the theoretical sale price & almost the max we can expect to see?

ORE must surely move in line with POG's share price, though there is currently probably a discount of some kind

Missed this one was going to buy this past week .

TMC looks like it could do more than an ORE.

ORE CFD holders will get POG shares .... check out for yourself if you don't believe me .... so as i said, ORE is a cheap way to buy POG

this morning POG is 480, so the conversion equivalent to ORE is 30 (currently offered at 27.75), the discount reflecting that the deal is not yet signed and sealed

POG (515p) From Minesite:-

February 09, 2009

As Long As Investors Are Able To Put The Past Behind Them, Peter Hambros Offer For Aricom Looks A Win-Win For Both Sides.

By Alastair Ford

At some stage you have to set a point of reference. In the case of the ongoing takeover of Aricom the point of reference was set - by the preference of both companies - at 585p per PETER HAMBRO MINING share. That was the level at which the Russian gold miners shares were trading on 4th February, the day before it announced that the offer level was likely to be one Peter Hambro share for between 15.77 and 17.14 Aricom shares. With market expectations duly set, the offer then came in at a reasonable midrange, at one-for-16. That, according to the above point of reference, values each Aricom share at 36.6p,which works out at a juicy premium of several hundred per cent for anyone who called the bottom back in November, when Aricom shares were bumping along at a lowly 6p each.
Of course, you can the shine off that number in any number of ways. For one thing, almost as soon as the share exchange ratio was announced to market Peter Hambro Mining then revealed that it had raised over 60 million at 450p per share, with key directors participating in the fundraising. Bam! Peter Hambro Minings shares plunged back towards the levels at which the directors and the big money bought in. And, bam! the offer for Aricom looked almost immediately the poorer.

Another way to the shine off the offer is simply to remind anyone concerned that all the big money came into Aricom at 70p. No need to rub it in, but hundreds of millions of dollars poured into Aricom at the height of the boom for the express purpose of developing two massive iron ore projects that will not now, for the immediate future at least, get built. Even on the 585p Peter Hambro share price, the investors who came in at this level have, as things stand, lost close on half their money. And at the time of writing, Peter Hambros share price was actually 499p, so the losses actually amount to more. Aricom chief Jay Hambro concedes that Peter Hambro Mining shares will need to go well over 1,100p before all the investors he brought in during that blaze of boom time optimism and glory back in 2007 will make good their losses.

Still, on the plus side, Peter Hambro shares have hit that sort of level before, and indeed, gone much higher. In the aftermath of the fundraising Peter Hambros shares may languish at the 500p mark for a while, but actually the trick the company has pulled off leaves it looking very well positioned indeed. As an Aricom shareholder, you could do worse than nuzzle up to the bosom of a new parent which has a target of 500,000 ounces of gold production in its sights, in a strong gold price environment, and with costs looking relatively low. With this latest fundraising Peter Hambro Mining has cleared its decks of debt, and removed virtually all financing risk. The Russian discount remains, of course, but then Aricom suffered that too. Londons analyst community, often split on partisan lines between supporters of Randgold and supporters of Peter Hambro, are now beginning to shift their allegiance back to Peter Hambro, as FTSE-100 tracker funds push Randgolds valuation beyond reasonable levels. With Aricoms hundreds of millions of dollars on its balance sheet, on the other hand, Peter Hambro now looks undervalued.

And so what if there are a few ways to take a shine off the deal? There are a few ways to put a gloss on it too. Try this from Jay Hambro: most companies with development projects have lost around 90 per cent of their value in the crash of the last few months. This deal crystallizes the drop in Aricom shares at something in the region of 50 per cent, depending on which point of reference you use 585p, todays price, or the 398p price also quoted by the two companies as being the last closing price of Peter Hambro Mining before the offer price commenced. That last puts a value on each Aricom share of just under 25p. But whichever you use, that drop in value from the 70p where the big money came in still significantly outperforms the market.

Then theres the strength the enlarged group offers to both sets of shareholders. Sure, the equity money that comes in with Aricom is now be earmarked to cover Peter Hambro Minings debt rather than for the construction of the Garinskoye and K&S iron ore projects. But Aricom was only halfway to funding these in any case, and in what looks to be a new financial order the enlarged Peter Hambro Mining probably stands a better chance of getting them funded into production, supported as it is by cash flow and the consequent greater flexibility in the timing of development decisions. Theres some feeling inside the new emerging organization that gold will act as a source of profit during the tough times, but that come a global revival of large scale industrial activity, the iron ore assets will once again come into their own and add real value. At that point, who knows, Peter Hambro shares may just be back at over the 1,100 mark. Now thatd be a nice point of reference for all concerned.

Thank you GF, helpful post for those of us who watch from the side lines.

more to the immediate point, as i have posted 2/3 times in recent days, is that ORE sp is currently at 10%+ discount to the POG prevailing conversion price ..... you don't want an almost risk free 10% gain? ..... ah well

Cyners in both now. cheers

is there a timeline for this all share offer?

result were pretty crappy due to closure of operations due to low ore prices ...... however, following is the bit we have been waiting for

On Feb. 6, Hambro announced an agreement for an all-share offer for Aricom, which was worth about $523 million based on closing prices on Wednesday.
Aricom said on Thursday it expected the transaction to be completed in late April.

so jnow just a simple calc to determine whether the (time) discount on offer (about 10%) is better than putting your money into POG or even elsewhere

conversely, one could argue that POG is about 10% too high and being supported until after the event!

POG up smartly today, against the trend, dragging ORE with it ..... the reason is clearly per the announcement today, which i am afraid i post in full as i am too damn tired to edit much - just got home from the biz trip in the sun!

i know i hold these, but it now looks an even stronger case to buy ORE as a cheap way into POG


Aricom has been holding talks about financing a key project with Chinese parties ..... Jay Hambro said that China's stimulus plan was starting to show results, but he expected benchmark iron ore settlements would fall 10-20 percent this year, marking a bottom in prices.

"My (JH that is!) personal view is that is that we are a much more viable partner in the merged company than we are as a stand-alone."

Aricom agreed earlier this month to be taken over by POG in an all-share deal worth about $530 million, giving debt-heavy Hambro access to Aricom's cash of $257 million.

Other Chinese parties may be more interested in financing K&S once Aricom is back with Hambro, which has a long track record of successfully launching mines, he said.

Mining at Aricom's first operation, Kuranakh, started last year, but shipments were suspended in December because demand had virtually evaporated .... Sales will resume after a processing plant is completed in the second half of the year, which will enrich the ore to a grade of 65 percent from 45 percent.

Jay Hambro said some people had exaggerated the effect of the global downturn in China, where economic growth was 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter.

have hacked yesterday's post 183 a bit to make it more easily readable and digestible .... not my usual 2-liner i'm afraid!

"On 6 February 2009 the Independent Board Committees of Aricom plc ('Aricom') and Peter Hambro Mining Plc ('Peter Hambro Mining' or 'PHM') announced that they had reached agreement on the terms of a recommended all share offer to be made by Peter Hambro Mining for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Aricom. The offer is to be implemented by means of a scheme of arrangement ('Scheme') and is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of the conditions of the Scheme and to the approval of the High Court and of both Aricom and PHM shareholders.

On 9 March 2009, Peter Hambro Mining announced the posting of a circular to PHM shareholders with the notice ('Notice') convening the Extraordinary General Meeting to allow PHM shareholders to vote on the resolutions required to approve and enable implementation of the Scheme by PHM.

The PHM Extraordinary General Meeting was held today and both the resolutions proposed, as set out in the Notice, were duly passed on a show of hands.

It is currently expected that the Scheme will become effective on or around 22 April 2009."

for the first time in a year, POG's chart is challenging 200 dma, but even a year ago, it did not stay above this level for very long ...... watch carefully, as i shall do, to see what happens next and whether any action should be taken on current long positions either in POG or ORE