I don't think their name "Telford" indicates where they operate - East London according to Shares.

The current sp 1.50 is more-or-less the price prior to the Olympic Bid, which probably gave the sp a boost, withouit looking to far to the cost involved.

It's been all downhill for the last 12-months - Oooo deary.
The yield isn't good, despite the fall.

Current sp is back where it was in 2004.

Strong move up on results.

+14.5% on strong volume - golden cross imminent?

Up another 8.3% today.

Up today on an otherwise down day!

Up 8.6% - the spread is a bit of a killer though!

Selected yesterday on the UPS thread .........

TEF 100p ( 98 -102p )
Reason: Are excellent value with an experienced management team and strong balance sheet. At a discount of 25% NAV, results next Wednesday, last update "Full year figures expected to be materially ahead of market expectations" Expectations are for EPS 13.40p (already 10.6p at 1H) a PE of 7.6 but that will be well beaten.

Intraday Chart

3 month candlestick with volume

2 days - 15 min

3 month

TEF 104 / 108p +6p

doing nicely ahead of results on Wednesday

Recovering from the earlier mark down ( a few sales ) but since since after 11am is all buyers and many more than earlier sells but MMs are holding the price down due to the FTSE being 145 points lower.

Tomorrow is RESULTS

link to "plus market "

Trades at "plus market "

Preliminary Results.

Financial Highlights

Revenue increased to 159.3 million (2009: 106.7 million)

Profit before tax and exceptional items increased to 8.1 million (2009: 7.3 million)

Net assets increased to 63.1 million (2009: 50.3 million)

Net debt reduced to 37.2 million (2009: 107.2 million)

Final dividend of 1.25 pence which, together with the 0.75 pence interim dividend, makes a total dividend for the year of 2.0 pence (2009: Nil)

Exceptional costs remained unchanged from interim results at 780,000 (2009: 3.0 million)

Trading Update.

Highlights

● Strong sales achieved in the first six months of the financial year with a 30 per cent increase in the number of contracts exchanged

● Demand from both overseas and UK buyers
● Full year results to 31 March 2012 anticipated to be in line with market expectations with a significant increase expected in the year to 31 March 2013

● Healthy balance sheet with cash and bank funding in place to make further land acquisitions and add to the development pipeline

Preliminary Results.


Highlights

· Contracts exchanged for the sale of 460 open market properties, an increase of 25 per cent (2011: 368)

· Number of open market properties completed ahead of expectations at 314 (2011: 281)

· Increase in gross profit margin to 17.6 per cent (2011: 15.1 per cent) and operating margin to 6.2 per cent (2011: 5.2 per cent) with further improvements anticipated

· Profit before tax and exceptional items ahead of market expectations at £3.0 million (2011: £2.5 million)

· Substantial increase in profit expected for the year to 31 March 2013 with over 65 per cent of open market homes expected to complete already pre-sold

· Reaffirmed intention to pay a progressive dividend year-on-year and as such final dividend proposed of 1.5 pence making a total of 3.0 pence for the year (2011: 2.5 pence)

· Over 50 per cent of open market completions in the year to 31 March 2012 were sold to UK buyers, predominantly owner-occupiers

· Complemented by continuing overseas investor demand attracted by high rental yields and the fundamental strengths of the London market

· Agreed to purchase nearly £50 million of land since 1 April 2011 with a focus on locations where demand is stronger and less reliant on mortgage constrained buyers

Trading Update

Highlights

● Strong sales achieved, exchanging contracts on 218 open market properties in the six months to 30 September 2012

● London property market remains buoyant in our area of operation with demand from both overseas and UK buyers

● Significant increase in profits expected for the period with a total of 252 legal completions achieved (H1 2011: 125) and considerably improved margins

● Profit before tax for the year to 31 March 2013 anticipated to be in line with market expectations and heavily weighted to the first half of the financial year

● The Group already anticipates profits ahead of market expectations for the year to 31 March 2014 due to pre-sales secured at higher than expected margins

● Extended debt facility of £90 million provides sufficient headroom to develop all existing schemes and acquire new sites

Joined Dill and skinny here. Results tommorrow.

IC week ahead comment......

TEF TELFORD HOMES

Following an upbeat trading statement last month from east London housbuilder Telford Homes (TEF), investors will already have a good idea about what to expect from its half-year figures on 28 November. Progress is likely to be robust with legal completions having more than doubled to 252 and with profit margins up. Indeed, at the time of the update, management was expecting to meet pre-tax profit consensus estimates of £8m for the year to end-March 2013, giving EPS of 11.8p, up from £3m a year earlier, while pre-sales secured at higher than expected margins will push 2014's pre-tax profit beyond consensus estimates of £12m, with EPS of 17.9p. Demand from overseas investors remains high, too, both from owner-occupiers and investors attracted by the high rental yield. The group is already 85 per cent sold for the current year and 50 per cent for the year to end-March 2014.

TEF TELFORD HOMES

The companys concensous EPS forecast figure
for the full year P/E for 2013
is a meagre 14.6 and 9.6 2014,compared to the
historical figure of 37.8 for 2012.(actual)

Id say theirs plenty of upside to come from
this stock, plenty and plenty of upside especially
given the SOLD figures booked already.

Telford Homes PLC

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2012 (A) 2013 (E) 2014 (E)

EBITDA £4.93m £m £m
EBIT £4.74m £m £m
Dividend Yield 1.59% 2.31% 3.47%
Dividend Cover 1.66x 2.95x 2.98x
PER 37.82x 14.66x 9.66x
PEG 1.31f 0.09f 0.19f
Net Asset Value PS 125.44p p p


Hemscott Premium.

TEF TELFORD HOMES

Just about breaking out into a
52 week high.

Fingers crossed tomorrow this will
be confirmed on results day.

TEF TELFORD HOMES

Just about breaking out into a
52 week high.

Fingers crossed tomorrow this will
be confirmed on results day.

Hoping for a biggy here today and why not. Historical P/E 38 plus forward P/e just 14 and 9 plus, derd cheap and main seas0n for housing market coming up now.

Superb Results better than
expectations which were already very high.

Telford Homes PLC
Interim Results
RNS Number : 1421S
Telford Homes PLC
28 November 2012



Press Release 28 November 2012





Telford Homes Plc



('Telford Homes' or the 'Group')



Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2012



Telford Homes Plc (AIM:TEF), the London focused residential property developer, today announces its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2012.



Highlights

·
Revenue increased significantly to £78.3 million (H1 2011: £58.6 million), including 252 open market completions (H1 2011: 125)

·
Considerable improvement in margins with gross margin before interest of 23.8% and operating margin before interest of 11.4% (year ended 31 March 2012: 17.6% and 6.2% respectively)

·
Profit before tax more than quadrupled to £6.5 million (H1 2011: £1.5 million)

·
The Group has sold over 90% of the target open market completions for the year to 31 March 2013 and over 60% for the following year

·
Strong demand from both owner-occupiers and investors in the inner London locations that are now the core of the Group's land buying strategy

·
Reduction in net debt to £31.7 million (31 March 2012: £54.6 million) and gearing to 45.7% (31 March 2012: 82.4%) with both expected to increase again over the next 12 months as sites are acquired and developed

·
Corporate loan facility increased to £90 million during the period

·
The Board is confident that profits for the year to 31 March 2013 will be in line with market expectations and anticipates significant growth in the following year




Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented: "I am very pleased to be able to report a quadrupling of profits in the first half of the year and a five percentage point increase in our operating margin. We are achieving a strong rate of sales to both investors and owner-occupiers with the Group now over 90 per cent sold for this financial year and already over 60 per cent sold for the following year. Our development pipeline represents five years of gross profit based on the current year and, with the London market remaining buoyant, the Board expects Telford Homes to continue to grow over the coming years."



- Ends -

http://www.investegate.co.uk/telford-homes-plc-(tef)/rns/interim-results/201211280700081421S/

Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented: "I am very pleased to be able to report a quadrupling of profits in the first half of the year and a five percentage point increase in our operating margin. We are achieving a strong rate of sales to both investors and owner-occupiers with the Group now over 90 per cent sold for this financial year and already over 60 per cent sold for the following year. Our development pipeline represents five years of gross profit based on the current year and, with the London market remaining buoyant, the Board expects Telford Homes to continue to grow over the coming years."

Dividend

The Board is pleased to declare an increase in the interim dividend to 2.0 pence per share (H1 2011: 1.5 pence). The interim dividend, together with the full year dividend payable in July 2013, is expected to be consistent with the Board's stated intention of paying around a third of earnings in dividends each year.

Outlook

London has a strong international reputation and is widely regarded as a safe haven for investment of all kinds. The housing market in London has remained buoyant and the Group's area of operation fits with some of the locations that are in most demand. In addition, a persistent shortage of supply of new homes underpins this demand from both tenants and owner-occupiers.



Along with being over 90 per cent sold against expectations for the year to 31 March 2013 the Group has exchanged contracts for the sale of more than 450 open market properties that will complete in the following three financial years. Profit before tax in the first six months of the year has increased more than fourfold and the operating margin has improved by over five percentage points against the last full year results. The Board is confident that profits for the year to 31 March 2013 will be in line with market expectations and anticipates significant growth beyond this given sales already secured and the Group's substantial development pipeline.





Jon Di-Stefano

Chief Executive

Up 3% plus at the open.

Up, 7% now.

Thier we go breakout and new 52 week high.

MMs brought the spread in wont last
for long.

Get in quick.

Going nicely expect broker upgrades.

Wheres Dill hes normally orgasiming at any development here. ?

TEF TELFORD HOMES

Just bought a load more.

Well on a CFD.

Im expecting a bid here.

This company is quality.

TEF TELFORD HOMES

http://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4492825/The-first-half-year-pretax-profit-quadruples-at-Telford-Homes.html

The first half-year pretax profit quadruples at Telford Homes
28 November 2012 | 07:07am
StockMarketWire.com - London-focused housebuilder Telford Homes said today that revenue increased significantly to £78.3m in the first half-year to end-September (H1 2011: £58.6m), including 252 open market completions (H1 2011: 125).

There was considerable improvement in margins with gross margin before interest of 23.8% and operating margin before interest of 11.4% (year ended 31st March 2012: 17.6% and 6.2% respectively).

Profit before tax more than quadrupled to £6.5m (H1 2011: £1.5m).

The Group has sold over 90% of the target open market completions for the year to 31st March 2013 and over 60% for the following year.

Telford reports strong demand from both owner-occupiers and investors in the inner London locations that are now the core of the Group's land buying strategy.

There was a reduction in net debt to £31.7m (31st March 2012: £54.6m) and gearing to 45.7%, with both expected to increase again over the next 12 months as sites are acquired and developed.

Corporate loan facility increased to £90m during the period.

Telford said it is confident that profits for the year will be in line with market expectations and anticipates significant growth in the following year.

Jon Di-Stefano, CEO, commented: "I am very pleased to be able to report a quadrupling of profits in the first half of the year and a five percentage point increase in our operating margin. We are achieving a strong rate of sales to both investors and owner-occupiers with the Group now over 90 per cent sold for this financial year and already over 60 per cent sold for the following year. Our development pipeline represents five years of gross profit based on the current year and, with the London market remaining buoyant, the Board expects Telford Homes to continue to grow over the coming years."



Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive talks through his interim results presentation. Jon talks through the increase in revenue & margins, profit before tax quadrupled and the substantial development pipeline.

Click the link below to watch;
http://www.brrmedia.co.uk/event/106895/jon-di-stefano-chief-executive

Wow nice chart , wish I'd bought some at 105p :-)

goldfinger - 28 Nov 2012 08:32 - 30 of 34

Wheres Dill hes normally orgasiming at any development here. ?




I hate rampers gf and therefore tend to keep my thoughts to myself these days :-)

Trading Update

Highlights


● Exceptional levels of demand with contracts exchanged for the sale of 803 open market properties in the year to 31 March 2013 (2012: 460)

● Strong demand from overseas investors for London property; however over 60 per cent of the exchanges in the year were sold to UK buyers

● Already 94 per cent pre-sold for the year to 31 March 2014 and over 50 per cent pre-sold for each of the two following years

● Significant improvement in both gross and operating margins

● Profit before tax for the year to 31 March 2013 will be ahead of market expectations

● Net debt reduced significantly to under £35 million (2012: £54.6 million)

● Credit committee approval for corporate loan facility increase to £120 million and extension by two years to 30 September 2016, to enable the Group to further enhance the development pipeline

Preliminary Results

Highlights

· Exceptional demand with contracts exchanged for the sale of 803 open market properties in the year, a 75 per cent increase (2012: 460)

· Pre-sold position at 99 per cent of expected open market completions for the year to March 2014 and over 50 per cent for each of the following two years

· All sales to date have been achieved without any assistance from government backed mortgage schemes including 'NewBuy' and 'Help to Buy'

· Significant improvement in gross margin before interest, increased by 6.7 percentage points to 24.3 per cent (2012: 17.6 per cent)

· Operating margin before interest up to 9.7 per cent (2012: 6.2 per cent) tempered only by accelerated selling expenses as a result of sales success

· Profit before tax trebled to £9.0 million (2012: £3.0 million)

· Total dividend of 4.8 pence (2012: 3.0 pence)

· Development pipeline increased to 2,260 properties expected to deliver revenue in excess of £650 million (2012: 1,969 properties)

· Bank facility recently increased to £120 million and extended to September 2016

· Capacity to acquire more land in inner London and Group is now a member of the GLA's London Development Panel

· Board expects another substantial increase in pre-tax profits for the year to 31 March 2014

Fantastic results. Year after year this company deliver the goods, and look as though they will continue the progress.

Placing to raise £20 million

Telford Homes Plc (AIM:TEF), the London focused residential property developer, today announces that it proposes to raise £20 million, before expenses, through a substantially oversubscribed conditional placing arranged by Shore Capital. The placing price of 250 pence per share represents a 0.8 per cent. discount to the middle market closing price of 252 pence per ordinary share on 11 June 2013.

their share placing is good news indeed. found a nice run down on london south east audio

Listen to Telford Homes

CLICK HERE

Still some mileage left in this one and one of the few house builders paying a divi.

Reminds me of Ski Sunday! :-)

Sold my last third today , TEF I salute you and will see you and all the housebuliders on your next crash.

Thanks.

And ps gf , the 5p spread at a quid was worth it :-)

LISTEN: Telford Homes (TEF) - Corporate Video

Click here

LISTEN: Jon Di-Stefano, CEO of Telford Homes, discusses the pleasing interim results

Click here to listen

Large profit taking recently, that was mainly due to the recent BOE policy and has had an effect on most of the house-builders and their shares have suffered.

this one is ripe to do a reverse now at this prices 327 to 328p

Shares are back to life for the last couple days, have been holding around suport 340 / 350p for a while

Most house builders are a best of the year and trading high, but not TEF yet

Telford Homes - Popular Business Park that is only 800 meters from Canary Wharf

click here]

Watch Jon Di-Stefano, CEO, Telford Homes talk to BRR Media at the company's Stratosphere launch event

Click here

Listen: Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive, Telford Homes discussing the trading update

Click here

Telford Homes reports strong demand

Telford Homes said continues to see strong demand for its homes in London and between contracts exchanged and properties sold, subject to contract, it has already sold more than 500 open market homes since 1 April 2014.

This compares favourably with the 515 contracts exchanged in the year to 31 March 2014.

Highlights for the six months to Sept. 30.:

Tremendous success at the October launch of Stratosphere, E15 with over 200 sales already achieved, a record number for a single site launch for Telford Homes

£16.3 million contract signed with Workspace to redevelop the first phase of Poplar Business Park with a gross development value ("GDV") in excess of £75 million

Development pipeline now over £1 billion of future revenue for the first time in the Group's history

Group well on track to deliver on growth and profit expectations for the next four years

Interim Results

Highlights

· Continuing sales success across all developments with contracts agreed for the sale of more than 600 open market homes since 1 April 2014 (year to 31 March 2014: 515)
· Over 270 of the 307 open market apartments at Stratosphere, E15 sold in the last few weeks
· Future revenue secured through open market and affordable forward sales exceeds £550 million
· Substantial land acquisitions have increased the Group's development pipeline to more than £1.1 billion of future revenue
· Major joint venture formed with Notting Hill Housing Group to develop a site in Stratford for more than 400 homes
· Strong margins maintained despite increasing costs
· Profit before tax increased to £9.4 million (H1 2013: £7.7 million)
· Dividend increased to 5.1 pence per share (H1 2013: 3.7 pence)
· Board very confident of meeting market expectations for the year to 31 March 2015

Fantastic results......

Trading update


Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2014

Telford Homes Plc (AIM:TEF), the London focused residential property developer, today announces its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2014.


Highlights


Continuing sales success across all developments with contracts agreed for the sale of more than 600 open market homes since 1 April 2014 (year to 31 March 2014: 515)
·
Over 270 of the 307 open market apartments at Stratosphere, E15 sold in the last few weeks
·
Future revenue secured through open market and affordable forward sales exceeds £550 million
·
Substantial land acquisitions have increased the Group's development pipeline to more than £1.1 billion of future revenue
·
Major joint venture formed with Notting Hill Housing Group to develop a site in Stratford for more than 400 homes
·
Strong margins maintained despite increasing costs
·
Profit before tax increased to £9.4 million (H1 2013: £7.7 million)
·
Dividend increased to 5.1 pence per share (H1 2013: 3.7 pence)
·
Board very confident of meeting market expectations for the year to 31 March 2015

Outlook

London is a fantastic place to be building new homes. The Group is developing in locations where people want to live and can afford to live, in an environment of chronic undersupply, and this is being clearly demonstrated by the success of every sales launch. Telford Homes is in the incredible position of having over £550 million of future revenue forward sold. This includes most of the homes due to complete in the years to 31 March 2015 and 31 March 2016 and many more in the following two years.

The Group has an unprecedented development pipeline and has the opportunity to achieve and then sustain the ambitious targets for growth set by the Board over the next four years and beyond. The Board remains very confident of a bright and exciting future for Telford Homes.

BRIEF – Telford Homes first – half profit rises 22 pct
26 Nov 2014 - 07:06

LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) – Telford Homes Plc

H1 pretax profit 9.4 million stg versus 7.7 million stg year ago
Interim dividend up 38 percent to 5.1 penceper share
Board very confident of meeting market expectations for year to 31 march 2015
Further company coverage: TELF.L

(Reporting By Costas Pitas) ((Costas.Pitas@thomsonreuters.com; +44 207 542 8024; Reuters Messaging: costas.pitas.thomsonreuters@reuters.net and @Cpitas on Twitter)

Telford Homes Profit Up On Margin Boost From Shoreditch Development
LONDON (Alliance News) - Telford Homes PLC on Wednesday said its pretax profit rose in the first ...

Alliance News26 November, 2014 | 9:08AM

LONDON (Alliance News) - Telford Homes PLC on Wednesday said its pretax profit rose in the first half as a fall in costs offset a decline in revenue, and the group's margins were boosted by the Avant-Garde development in east London.
Pretax profit in the six months to the end of September was GBP9.4 million against GBP7.7 million last year. Revenue was lower, down to GBP65.1 million from GBP73.7 million last year, but a decline in costs offset the fall. Cost of sales fell to GBP42.4 million from GBP53.8 million, outpacing the revenue decline.
The improvement in its margin was driven by the Avant-Garde development in Shoreditch, east London, where price growth in the area has pushed the profit margin for the development to more than 40%.
Telford said its results for the year would be weighted to the second half due to the larger number of open market completions due in that period.
The London-focused residential property developer said it has agreed the sale of more than 600 open-market homes since the start of its financial year in April, above the 515 sold in the year to the end of March. Future revenue via open market and affordable forward sales is more than GBP550 million, Telford said. Its development pipeline is now valued at more than GBP1.1 billion.
The group hiked its interim dividend to 5.1 pence from 3.7 pence last year and said it is "very confident" it will meet market expectations for the full year.
"London is a fantastic place to be building homes, and Telford Homes is developing in locations where people want to live and can afford to live," said Telford Chief Executive Jon Di-Stefano.
Shares in the company were up 0.1% to 359.80 pence on Wednesday.

By Sam Unsted; samunsted@alliancenews.com; @SamUAtAlliance
Copyright 2014 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.
- See more at: http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1416992928883634400/telford-homes-profit-up-on-margin-boost-from-shoreditch-development.aspx#sthash.gEvtIYC0.dpuf

Watch the interim results interview with Telford Homes' Jon Di-Stefano

http://www.brrmedia.co.uk/event/133074/?popup=true

Telford Homes PLC

FORECASTS

2015 2016
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Peel Hunt LLP
21-11-14 BUY 23.45 30.88 10.30 30.30 40.40 13.50
Shore Capital
21-11-14 None 23.00 30.30 10.10 30.00 40.00 13.30

2015 2016
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 23.22 30.58 10.20 30.14 40.19 13.40
1 Month Change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3 Month Change -0.02 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01

GROWTH
2014 (A) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Norm. EPS 86.53% 18.65% 31.44%
DPS 85.71% 56.85% 31.39%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2014 (A) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

EBITDA £21.55m £28.66m £36.80m
EBIT £21.16m £m £m
Dividend Yield 1.81% 2.83% 3.72%
Dividend Cover 3.96x 3.00x 3.00x
PER 13.96x 11.76x 8.95x
PEG 0.16f 0.63f 0.28f
Net Asset Value PS 171.92p p p

IC update

Some may worry that the booming London housing market is starting to slow, but Telford Homes (TEF) provides the ideal tonic in its interim figures. The east London builder has the kind of forward earnings visibility other house builders would love to replicate. Most homes due to complete during the years to March 2015 and 2016 have already been sold, with significant numbers reserved for the two years beyond. This translates into a forward order book of more than £550m, from a development pipeline worth more than £1.1bn.
Open market completions fell from 222 to 140 for the half, but this is simply a reflection of the timing of current developments; completions are expected to accelerate in the second half. Operating margins rose from 17.1 to 18 per cent, but it's worth noting that selling expenses - around 4 per cent of the revenue from a typical development - are written off as incurred, well before revenue generated from forward sales is crystallised. In fact, higher sales prices at Avant-garde, the group's joint venture development in east London, pushed margins there above 40 per cent. The target margin when appraising new opportunities remains at 24 per cent.
Analysts at Shore Capital are forecasting full-year pre-tax profits of £23m and EPS of 30.3p (from £19.2m and 25.8p in 2013-14) rising to 40p next year. IC View:
Telford's shares trade on a 2015 PE multiple of 12 times, falling to just 9 times in 2016 - which, given that sales for that year are virtually complete, looks achievable. We tipped Telford over four years ago (101p, 22 Apr 2010), but given the strong earnings visibility we stick by our advice. Buy.

.

Cyners, BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY.

just been reading it ..... certainly one to put on the watch though i was amazed how few homes they build

Listen: Analyst interview - Telford Homes

Click here

Telford Homes (AIM: TEF), the London-focused residential property developer, is pleased to announce that the Company has signed a new £180 million corporate loan facility to support its stated growth plans.

This £180 million revolving credit facility, which extends to March 2019, is being provided by the Group's existing banking partners, HSBC, RBS and Santander, together with a new partner, Allied Irish Bank. This enlarged facility replaces the Group's existing £120 million loan facility and provides significantly increased working capital flexibility at a lower cost of debt.

Katie Rogers, Group Financial Director of Telford Homes Plc, said: "The Board is very pleased to announce today that the Group has successfully negotiated a new and improved £180 million corporate loan facility that not only offers increased flexibility on site purchases and development funding but, importantly, allows the Group to facilitate its growth plans over the next few years. This new facility clearly demonstrates our banks' continued confidence in Telford Homes as well as the overall strength of the London property market."

Telford Homes - New £180 million corporate loan facility

click here

I'm just wondering how much upside is left short term, ie leading up to the Election and the volatility in the Indices. Jim Slater tipped it last week and it took off. Not far from it's highs in 2007. Looks way overbought on the indicators and outside the upper Bollinger Band. Watching. Rarely short stocks but never say never.

Trading update 22nd April.

Still in two minds here, resistance 430p. If I turned the chart upside down I would be tempted to buy, so using the same logic today screaming sell? Reluctant to do anything in this market. Still watching :0)

Breakout intraday, let's see if it holds.

Noticed Naked Trader thinks this is a potential doubler given time and patience. No mention of him buying it mind.

StockMarketWire.com
Telford Homes (AIM: TEF), the London-focused residential property developer, has reported that for the year ended 31 March 2015 there has been consistently strong demand with contracts exchanged on 661 open market properties in the year, a significant increase on the prior year (2014: 515).

Operating profit margin expected to be higher than last year (2014: 17.1% before interest) and profit before tax for the year is anticipated to be above current market expectations.

Jon Di-Stefano, chief executive of Telford Homes, commented: "Telford Homes is operating in areas of London that benefit from a stable property market and yet still suffer from a shortage of supply. Demand for the Group's homes has remained very strong and I am pleased to report that the Board anticipates exceeding current market expectations for profits in the year to 31 March 2015.

"Given our substantial forward sold position and a development pipeline of over £1bn, the Group's earnings visibility is exceptionally strong. The Board expects significant growth in output and profits over the next few years and remains very confident in the long term prospects for Telford Homes."

A strong update and a positive outlook from this highly valued company, but the share price stood still!

New research note at http://tinyurl.com/nqqwcpu

Must admit it is tempting, more inclined to buy shares rather than spread bet. Capital Spreads don't cover it and ETX currently have a seven pip spread. 460p looks a possible target.

StockMarketWire.com
Telford Homes (AIM:TEF), the London focused residential property developer, has reported that for the year ended 31 March 2015 profit before tax was ahead of market expectations at £25.1m (2014: £19.2m), a tenfold increase in four years.

The company is focused on relatively affordable locations in London where demand from tenants, investors and owner-occupiers exceeds the supply of new homes.

A total of 661 open market properties were sold in the year (2014: 515) and another 105 since the beginning of last month.

Total forward sales now over £550m (31 March 2014: £341m), more than three times current annual revenue.

There is a development pipeline of £1.07bn of future revenue, an increase of more than 70% in two years.

The proposed final dividend is 6p making a total of 11.1p for the year (2014: 8.8p).

The company said that the outcome of the General Election has provided certainty and stability to the political environment and the housing market.

The Board expects significant growth in output and profits over the next few years and remains very confident in the long term prospects for Telford Homes.

Jon Di-Stefano, chief executive of Telford Homes, said: "I am delighted to report that Telford Homes has experienced another excellent year of trading."

Chris - this is one to sit on rather to try to trade as volumes are invariably thin .... it's a really good stock with land and projects in the right places (london and kent and similar), and makes a good balance with the likes of TW. or BVS or BDEV

imo, this morning's profit-taking made a nice opportunity to buy (more) .... so i did

CEO Jon Di-Stefano and CFO Katie Rogers discuss another excellent year of trading resulting in pretax profits of over GBP25m: click here

This is one of Jim Slater's favourite shares.
One to hold, I think.
I

From the Evening Standard

Telford Homes boss calls for post-election planning freedom
Towering success: the homebuilder has sold two thirds of Manhattan Plaza

The boss of east London homebuilder Telford Homes has called on the Government to “release the shackles” on planning to tackle the capital’s acute shortage of homes.

Telford, which aims at the more-affordable end of the London market, saw pre-tax profits surge 31% to £25.1 million in the year to March. Demand for its homes is such that forward sales have hit £550 million.

Even in the uncertainty of a general election campaign, Telford sold two thirds of its new Manhattan Plaza scheme, minutes from Canary Wharf’s proposed Crossrail station.

Chinese and Hong Kong investors snapped up most of the flats at the scheme, where prices for one-bedroom flats start at £420,000.

“We did take a little bit of a risk launching in April, because we thought people might wait but they didn’t,” said chief executive Jon Di-Stefano.

The main concern for Telford now, armed with £180 million in new financing, is speeding up the planning system to add to its £1 billion development pipeline.

David Cameron
Focus: Telford wants David Cameron's new government to improve the planning system

Di-Stefano said: “We want to increase our output. We’ve got the financial capacity to increase output so we don’t benefit from things being slowed up. If we can release the shackles a little bit, we can deliver more.

“We’ve definitely got the demand. You can see that with every single launch you have. We’re selling quicker than we can build homes. So what you definitely need to do is concentrate on the supply side of things.

“We still find that the biggest impediment to getting things done is the planning process. While we don’t expect a complete overhaul, small changes would make a big difference.”

Shore Capital’s Robin Hardy said: “The London market remains more undersupplied than the UK new homes market generally, with unstoppable population growth driving owner and tenant demand. Recent development launches by Telford strongly underscore this view.”

Valuation
price 475p
A bit expensive on a Historic PE of 14.3, though is a high growth company, on a tax charge of 20%
NAV of 200p and deb to 43.9% from 0 and to increase further

Questor/Telegraph on TEF

i remain surprised by the apparent lack of interest you guys have in this excellent little housebuilder ..... and the same could be same about MBH who supply the bricks

Telford Homes featured in our weekly round-up of announcements from AIM.

More at http://www.investorschampion.com/blog/

House price rises sped up in July, says Nationwide

The pace of increase in UK house prices accelerated in July, rising by 3.5% compared with a year earlier, according to the Nationwide.
The building society said that the annual change picked up from 3.3% a month earlier.
Property values rose by 0.4% in July compared with June, taking the cost of the average home to £195,621.
IC -By Graeme Davies, - 16 july 2015
Booming housing market conditions, particularly in the east end of London, have led to another strong trading update from Telford Homes (TEF). It has achieved 218 open market sales since 1 April and now has forward sales secured for the year to March 2016 worth £620m, more than three and a half times ahead of last year. Buy.

-----------------
Demand for housing remained "encouraging", the report said, but supply strength was "unclear".

Nationwide's chief economist Robert Gardner said: "The number of new homes under construction has started to pick up, albeit from historically low levels, and further increases are required if a sustainable recovery in the housing market is to be maintained over the longer term."

Mr Gardner said that the house price growth might be "stabilising close to the pace of earnings growth" which had historically been around 4% a year.
Estate agents and analysts point out that the market could be affected by a potential change in interest rates at the turn of the year.

"The one blot on the horizon is a potential interest rate rise, which may slow down the mainstream market as buyers become concerned that their mortgage will cost more," said Jonathan Adams, director of estate agency Napier Watt.
"Buyers often do not realise the impact of a rate rise until the first one actually happens."

21 September 2015 - Telford Homes Plc

Acquisition of the regeneration business of United House Developments for £23 million

Telford Homes Plc (AIM:TEF), the London focused residential property developer is delighted to announce that it has acquired the regeneration business of United House Developments ("UHD") on a debt free basis from United House Group Holdings Limited ("UHGH"). The consideration for the acquisition was £22.97 million and this has been entirely funded from the Group's existing cash resources.

The regeneration business of UHD consists of a group of companies that have various interests in four significant development opportunities in North and East London. These development opportunities are City North adjacent to Finsbury Park station, the refurbishment of the Balfron Tower in Poplar, two phases of development at Gallions Quarter near Royal Albert Dock and the regeneration of Chrisp Street Market in Poplar. One employee is transferring from UHGH to Telford Homes with no other central costs, assets or liabilities being acquired. The developments are all at various stages in the planning process but they have the combined potential to add some £500 million to the Group's existing £1 billion development pipeline.

City North is a mixed use development comprising 355 apartments and 109,000 square feet of retail, leisure and office space in a joint venture with the Business Design Centre in Islington. The scheme includes two 23 storey towers linked by a 12 storey terrace building. The site has full planning permission and incorporates plans to improve the facilities at the adjacent Finsbury Park station. Telford Homes will immediately work with the Business Design Centre to ensure that construction can commence in 2016 with completion expected in 2020. The gross development value of City North is in excess of £200 million and the joint venture is therefore expected to add over £100 million to the Group's development pipeline.

Balfron Tower is an iconic 26 storey grade II listed building in Poplar. The project involves the refurbishment of 146 existing homes in a joint venture with Londonewcastle and the owners, Poplar HARCA. The development is subject to receipt of planning permission, and the joint venture has been working with architects Studio Egret West and interior designers Abe Rogers to produce a proposal sympathetic to the heritage of the tower. Allowing for this process, the refurbishment should commence early in 2016 and be completed by 2018. Telford Homes owns a 25 per cent interest in the scheme which is expected to add over £15 million of revenue to the development pipeline.

Gallions Quarter is a multi-phase development adjacent to Gallions Reach DLR station near Royal Albert Dock. The development is controlled by Notting Hill Housing Group ("NHHG") and Telford Homes is acquiring a 50 per cent interest in two of the phases to be developed in partnership with NHHG. NHHG and Telford Homes have already established a strong partnership on many other developments. The first of these phases has a detailed planning consent for 292 new homes subject to signing a section 106 agreement and the other phase has outline consent for a further 254 homes. The area around the Royal Docks is experiencing significant regeneration and substantial commercial investment and will benefit from the new Crossrail station at Custom House, due to open in 2018.

The process through which UHGH is acquiring a legal interest in Gallions Quarter has not yet been completed. The final steps are expected to be concluded shortly and accordingly a proportion of the total acquisition consideration has been deferred and becomes payable on securing the legal interest in the development. Should this condition not be satisfied then the Group will issue a further announcement adjusting the total consideration accordingly and confirming that it is not proceeding with the purchase of the relevant interest in the Gallions Quarter development. Assuming the condition is satisfied the two phases will add over £75 million to the Group's development pipeline. The first phase is expected to commence in 2016 and be completed by 2020 with the remaining phase commencing at that point.

The regeneration of Chrisp Street market is a major development opportunity in partnership with Poplar HARCA. Telford Homes has a longstanding relationship with Poplar HARCA and will now work together with them to further their vision of transforming the area around the existing market square into a new commercial and leisure destination. The development is expected to include several hundred new homes in a location that has recently been announced as one of the Greater London Authority's new Housing Zones. The proposals require substantial consultation with local residents, commercial occupiers, the London Borough of Tower Hamlets and other interested parties. The ultimate acquisition of the development from Poplar HARCA is subject to achieving all necessary consents. The aim is to commence development in 2017 with phased completions anticipated over a seven year construction programme. Poplar HARCA are expected to retain a small interest in the development which has the potential to add over £300 million to the Group's longer term development pipeline.

This acquisition is an excellent fit with the existing business of Telford Homes. All of the developments are in the Group's core area and therefore represent an exciting opportunity to substantially increase the Group's development pipeline in one transaction. For a limited initial investment Telford Homes now has an enhanced longer term strategic pipeline stretching over the next eight years. The Board of Telford Homes looks forward to working with both new and established partners to develop these significant opportunities.

Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented: "Telford Homes is one of the most respected developers in London and we are targeting significant growth over the next ten years. The acquisition of the regeneration business of United House Developments represents an excellent opportunity to make a substantial addition to our development pipeline including longer term strategic opportunities. The four exciting developments being acquired are in locations where housing demand remains strong and we look forward to working with the various partners already involved in the schemes. I would like to thank Rick de Blaby and everyone at United House for their assistance during the last two months and I wish them all the best in the future."

Rick de Blaby, Chief Executive of United House Developments commented: "This transaction completes a wholesale restructuring of the United House Group which started last summer, when we demerged our construction business. United House Group is now in a debt free position and liberated to develop out the balance of our portfolio, whose end value exceeds £150m, and return to our core expertise of delivering bespoke, niche London residential developments upon which we have earned a widely respected reputation. The regeneration schemes which we have nurtured and the relationships we have with our joint venture partners are hugely important and valuable to us, and given the scale of the investment they need going forward, I am confident that in Telford Homes and Jon's team we have passed them into the best possible hands."

this isn't a whizz-bang stock, but certainly lots right about it and i put a number into my sipp a few months back
the chart is quite encouraging have just poked back about 200 dma, but still a long way from its high and curiously, sp has been having trouble re-piercing 50 dma

Been watching for months, so putting money in now.

Jim Slater: my tax-free share portfolio is up 35pc in a year

TEF is not longer a buy but a hold ............

Telford Homes
This company, a residential property developer, reported excellent results in May. Then, at the annual meeting in July, it reported that there was still very strong demand for its homes.
From a launch of 148 apartments, villas and penthouses at one of its sites in Bermondsey, south London, 92 were sold in June, adding £43m to forward sales, which now stand at more than £620m. Bear in mind that Telford is valued by the stock market at only £250m.
A planning delay has caused a decrease in the company’s earnings per share estimate for 2017, with an equivalent increase coming in 2018. Its broker, Peel Hunt, has a target price of 550p and forecast that Telford’s pre-tax profits would rise from £25m in 2015 to £43m by 2018.
At 417p, on a prospective p/e ratio of about 10 and a rising dividend yield of 3.5pc, Telford’s shares are a strong hold.

telegraph/Jim-Slater-my-tax-free-share-portfolio-is-up-35pc-in-a-year

i'm more than happy to hold for all the reasons given in my various posts about it

430p +10p

Trading update

Telford Homes Plc (AIM:TEF), the London focused residential property developer, is pleased to give the following trading update ahead of its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2015, which will be released on Wednesday, 2 December 2015.

Highlights
●
Profit before tax for the six months to 30 September 2015 expected to more than double compared to the equivalent period last year (H1 2014: £9.4 million)
●
Strong forward sold position of over £685 million to be recognised across five financial years (31 March 2015: over £550 million)
●
The Group has acquired the regeneration business of United House Developments which has the potential to add some £500 million of revenue to the existing £1 billion development pipeline
●
Planning permissions secured at key sites including Caledonian Road (156 homes), Chobham Farm (471 homes) and Redclyffe Road (192 homes)
●
Group well on track to deliver growth and profit expectations for the year to 31 March 2016 and beyond

Current trading
Telford Homes remains focused on relatively affordable locations in non-prime inner London where the average price of an open market home is typically between £500 and £800 per square foot. At this price level demand from investors, tenants and owner-occupiers continues to be strong and yet there are still not enough new homes being constructed. Whilst there has been a necessary and expected slowing in demand for prime property, this is a very different market to those in which the Group operates.

The Group has recently opened a new sales and marketing centre in Stratford to give Telford Homes a permanent presence in the heart of its area of operation. The remaining 32 homes at Stratosphere were launched from this centre on 8 October with 18 reservations secured by the end of the first day. Following several successful sales launches in the last six months, the Group's forward sold position currently stands at over £685 million to be recognised across five financial years from the year to 31 March 2016 onwards (31 March 2015: over £550 million).

Legal completions on forward sold homes are also being achieved in line with expectations. These completions are weighted towards the first half of the current financial year and, as a result, the Board anticipates that profit before tax for the six months to 30 September 2015 will more than double compared to the equivalent period last year. Given the forward sold position the Group remains well on track to meet profit expectations for the year to 31 March 2016 and beyond.

Development pipeline
On 21 September 2015 the Group reported that it had acquired the regeneration business of United House Developments. The developments that were acquired in this transaction are all in the Group's core area and have the potential to add some £500 million of revenue to the existing £1 billion development pipeline. As a result of the anticipated timing and phasing of some of the developments, Telford Homes now has an enhanced longer term strategic pipeline stretching over the next eight years and this represents an excellent platform for further investment and future growth.

The Group has also achieved significant success in progressing planning for several of its key developments. The Board is pleased to report that, after an initial delay, full planning permission is in place for 156 homes at Caledonian Road, N1 and work is underway on site. In addition planning permission has been granted in the last few weeks for 471 homes at Chobham Farm, Stratford in partnership with Notting Hill Housing Group and for 192 homes at Redclyffe Road, E6. Both of these were approved at recent planning meetings and are subject to signing the usual legal agreements.

Outlook
The fundamental lack of supply of new homes at an affordable price in London continues to underpin the Group's growth plans over the next few years. In addition demand remains high from all of the Group's typical customers such that the Board continues to be very confident in investing further in the development pipeline. London has a growing economy, an excellent transport network and, given the market dynamics in the Group's operating area, there is nowhere the Board would rather be developing in the foreseeable future.

Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented: "Telford Homes is focused on relatively affordable locations in non-prime inner London where the demand for new homes from investors, tenants and owner-occupiers far exceeds the supply. The Group continues to add to its development pipeline and our recent acquisition of the regeneration business of United House Developments has resulted in an enhanced longer term strategic pipeline stretching over the next eight years. With over £685 million of forward sales secured, Telford Homes remains well on track to meet profit expectations for the year to 31 March 2016 and beyond."

Shares fall 10% on £50m placing announcement.

Will probably be a good bit of diversification away from prime inner London. Outside London is allegedly performing better now if the housing stats are accurate.

re - placing
that means shareholders are losing ground

Telford Homes placing to raise £50m
Telford Homes is raising £50m, gross, through a placing of 13,888,889 new ordinary shares at 360 pence per share.

The group says London has a growing economy with an excellent transport network and yet suffers from a fundamental lack of supply of new homes at an affordable price, and demand remains high from the group's typical customers.

It says that following the recent acquisition of the regeneration business of United House Developments for £23 million the group has a substantial platform from which it can undertake further investment. And it says it has a number of opportunities to acquire new developments that require additional funds beyond those deployed for the acquisition.

The net proceeds will be invested in some of these development opportunities and are expected to be committed within one year and fully utilised within two years.

The board believes that the placing will enable the group to target annual profit before tax exceeding £45m from 2019 onwards and increasing towards £60m thereafter.

The placing is conditional on shareholder approval at a general meeting on 13 November.

Chief executive Jon Di-Stefano said: "Telford Homes is experiencing strong demand for its homes in non-prime inner London and has a sector leading forward sold position of almost four times last year's reported revenue. This is due in part to a fundamental lack of supply of new homes in London at an affordable price.

"The imbalance between supply and demand is not going away and the Group already has a substantial development pipeline to take advantage of this in the coming years. Despite that, there are more opportunities available in the Group's typical locations. The proposed Placing will enable Telford Homes to take advantage of those opportunities and achieve enhanced longer term growth in its output of new homes and therefore in reported profits and dividends paid to shareholders."
At 3:48pm: (LON:TEF) Telford Homes PLC share price was -33.12p at 376.88p

i understand why companies prefer placings over rights, for they are cheaper to do and the end-buyer certain
however, it is intrinsically unfair on the existing shareholders - 'twas always thus i'm afarid

Exactly and at 360p fantastic value which is why us folk get left out. Still, looks like a double bottom at 380p. Or triple if you go back to March this year.

Bought some

middle price now 380.25p

It looks like yesterday was the low point on the share price as the placing @ 360p reaches the end. High growth company and at this price is worth backing as results due very soon should see double profits at the interim stage.
Stronger order book and shares bouncing from lows yesterday

A recent email from the CEO to a share holder after the placing

Dear Steph,

Apologies for coming back to you so late in the day. We have had a few similar queries from private shareholders and although you have asked a specific question about earnings and dilution I have set out below a wider rationale for the placing. I hope you don’t mind me covering all the bases at once but it saves me having to pick and choose bits of it depending on each enquiry and you may have had follow up queries on some of these issues.

Why did we do it – the financial reasons

In simple terms to drive the longer term growth of the business it was always likely that we would need additional equity at some point. Our business is capital hungry and a typical larger development can require circa £50 to £80 million between land value and build costs and takes around three years to develop. Therefore the cycle is slow and this means growth eventually slows even with continued forward sales.

Why now rather than later comes down to two factors – opportunities in the market and the profit profile over the next couple of years. To be clear we did not need to raise the equity to fund the United House acquisition. This was very much a land acquisition deal that gave us some assets that were right up our street and enabled us to have a longer term more strategic element to the pipeline for the first time. However it does mean that we have allocated future equity to these developments in our cash flows and therefore inevitably they fill up the pipeline such that we cannot take other opportunities that are out there. So the fact that we had a full pipeline but could see more opportunities in a positive market was a significant factor in the timing.

Additionally we have an issue with profit timings in relation to 2017 and I am sure this has not helped the share price in recent months. Despite the long term nature of our developments there are ways of bringing profit recognition forward where homes are built under construction contracts. No doubt you have already noticed that we have started to talk about selling developments to institutions for PRS and this is becoming a hot topic for the industry as a whole. From our point of view this is not of interest because it accelerates profit recognition but instead because it represents an exciting new string to our bow. Nevertheless it has the benefit of earlier profit recognition and of course enhanced returns on equity due to the payment profile.

We are now seriously pursuing PRS possibilities and as a result we are currently marketing Caledonian Road to potential buyers on this basis. This is public knowledge as it has been in the market for a few weeks now. This and any other PRS deals would bring profits forward which if they cannot be replaced quickly enough just leaves a hole in the profit growth further out – i.e. robbing one year to pay another.

.The placing should enable us to smooth that impact by acquiring new sites more swiftly and therefore I believe that a combination of the placing and a couple of PRS sales would enable us to return to a broadly increasing profit growth profile from now onwards. Clearly this is not assured at this point but we have some confidence in the PRS market given our current marketing exploits.

We have previously talked about doubling profits from £19.2m in 2014 to circa £40m by 2018 and then growing from there. With the benefit of the placing plus initial PRS sales we can achieve at least that by 2018 with a smoother growth profile than currently forecast. This in the context of needing to spend the placing money and then build the developments before most of the real profit value comes in. Beyond 2018 we expect it to mean that we can continue to grow every year with no periods of stagnation while we wait for our existing capital to turn round in the development cycle. This we have broadly set out as £45 million growing towards £60 million and I appreciate you may consider these targets to be undemanding. Please consider that there is natural prudence required in forecasting that far ahead and a lot can happen in five years. We are not assuming for now that we perpetuate the sale of more developments to PRS investors further into the future and if we did do that then it would of course continue to bring profit recognition forward in later years.

We do not know what the future holds but as a result of this placing we believe that not only do we have the potential to remove a short term dip in our profit forecasts but also to ensure that our long term profit earning potential is significantly improved. Alongside this we have a stronger balance sheet and an improved net asset value per share. I believe that any housebuilder should be valued based on a hybrid of earnings potential and net asset value. We of course have a lot of our assets forward sold which also secures some of the enhanced future value.

A final point here is that this is a significant equity raise in the context of our size and is aimed at preventing the need to return to the market for more money in the coming years.

Why not just use debt?

We already have a very flexible, relatively cheap £180 million facility and we will still use it over the coming years. In fact we expect to increase it in the future. However banks themselves do not like our gearing to be too high and reducing it gives them greater confidence. In addition investors are much more negative on the issue and it frequently comes up in institutional meetings. Our peer group of course are relatively ungeared although we are of a different scale to them. High gearing holds our share price back because people see risk in debt.
... High gearing holds our share price back because people see risk in debt. We agree with this in terms of needing to reduce longer term reliance on debt and although we still expect short term gearing to increase we are conscious of needing to reduce it in later years even if it is at the expense of some potential additional earnings growth that could be achieved by throwing caution to the wind and ignoring all other views on risk.

Why not a rights issue or an open offer?

I am well aware that not having the opportunity to buy at 360 pence is frustrating and annoying for private investors. As I have said before the directors are in the same boat in terms of dilution and there were a number of reasons why we chose a placing.

Firstly we have quite a narrow institutional shareholder base in terms of large institutions but we do have lots of retail investors and small funds involved. Directors, related parties and share schemes own circa 20% and could not have taken part in a rights issue (timing and availability of funds). In addition some of our institutional shareholders (or the relevant fund managers) have been trying to sell some of their shares over the last 18 months due to issues with their funds - not I must add due to a problem with us. They are trying to reduce their holding not increase and accordingly they have not taken shares in the placing. In addition rights issues rarely get taken up by a large proportion of private or retail holders due to the nature of the holding and the potential cost involved. In short we were not confident we could raise the money from existing shareholders and a failed rights issue would have been a significant negative for the company.

A rights issue also takes time and that is dangerous when raising money. Sentiment is a big part of trying to encourage new holders to come in and in an industry that everyone sees as cyclical you are never far from a bad press day or an analyst publishing a negative report even if you don’t agree with it. Housebuilder sentiment appears to have worsened in the last few days and I am sure it would be more difficult to raise the money now.

The money has been raised from over 30 different institutions and the majority of these are new shareholders many with the potential to add to their holding in the future. This should improve liquidity in the shares which has been a bit of an issue of late and I think holds back the price even when good news is announced. I appreciate some of them can sell for a profit in the future and we may never see them again but I believe we have increased the number of long term holders and therefore those who may take up the slack when others are selling. New institutional holders want to start with a reasonable position and rarely pick up scraps as their first acquisition.

Why £3.60?

Some of this is answered by the sentiment issue above and the fact that we were dealing with new holders looking for an entry price and not so many existing holders trying to mitigate the dilution. Again we are well aware this is a dilutive price but I believe the benefits will be worth it and we are all shareholders alongside you. In context the dilutive effect of the shares at £3.60 is to reduce existing holders to circa 81.4% of the ownership. Raising £50 million at say £4.10 (the closing price the day before) would have increased this residual holding by less than 2% to 83.3%. Granted an important difference but not so significant and hence why we proceeded at that price. As you know we are also intending to offset the dilution in the dividend for the next couple of years.

What are we doing with the money?

We have already said that we expect to commit the funds within one year and utilise them in full within two (the distinction being committing subject to planning and then paying upon receipt of a consent). We have not announced any of the likely acquisitions at this point and we have to secure them in contract before we do. All I will say is that we have several long term partners bringing sites to the market and whilst we will not win them all we definitely did not want to be telling them that we did not have the money to bid in the first place. The long term dynamics of our market are too good to be doing that whilst also damaging our standing in terms of future land buying.

My apologies for this lengthy email and in addition I am aware that I have not answered your specific query in the way you wanted due to restrictions on what I can tell you regarding future forecasts. I hope however that it helps you to understand what we have done and why. We firmly believe it is for the good of all shareholders.

Don’t hesitate to get in touch if you have any other queries.

Kind regards,
Jon

many thanks for that post
what a well set out and clear letter from the ceo which even a dope like me could understand

i'm not pleased that my holding is at quite a bit higher price, but that is the nature of things ....... however, as a long term holder in a good sector, i am very happy indeed as i think this is an excellent company for all sorts of reasons

Last night I set myself to buy this morning if it was moving lower close to the 360p placing as the future market was looking on the way down.

Waiting all morning since 8.30am for some type of retrace, after opening well up and nothing, so I Bought some, and then at 2:50pm MMs manipulated the order book taking the higher bids away and down to 373p and then 369.50p, has recovered some ground since

note - MM SCAP was one of the guitty parties

with the markets crashing around our ears, any stock that shows blue today is a rarity

My forecast made early this morning

Half Year result for 2016 due soon maybe before this month end

Profit before tax £19M
tax ................. £4M
Profits after tax £15M
EPS .............. 24.75p
dividend ......... 6.50p
No. shares used 60.6M

This afternoon shake lasted till almost the end of the day when it went back to the last "AT" 383p

Chart of the week: FTSE 100 heading for 3,500?
By John Burford | Mon, 16th November 2015 - 11:26

In the normal course of my analysis of share charts of constituents of the FTSE 100 (UKX) index, I focus mainly on the stand-alone technical picture of each market, independent of current general business conditions. 

Most of the time, especially during the bull market of 2009-2015, many shares were also in bull markets, although I have found several stand-out examples of bearish charts (see my Barclays (BARC) coverage, in particular).

But no company exists in a vacuum.  If business conditions are good, most companies will thrive and sentiment is bullish.  But when sentiment turns down - as I believe is occurring now - many shares will change trend to down.

As an investor - which in reality is really a long-term trader - you can maximise your returns by selling shares near the top and sitting on the cash.  I have never understood why someone would hold a share through all of the ups and downs that inevitably occur over a timespan of many years.

If it is the dividends you like, why not sell and then buy back at much lower prices?  Of course, the reason is sheer inertia - and lack of confidence.  And that is where technical analysis can help. 

Yes, I believe the general market is now turning down, and today I want to show you my evidence based on the FTSE 100 index itself.

This is the chart I pulled only two weeks ago showing the entire 2009-2015 bull run:

(click to enlarge)

There are several important technical aspects of this chart that stand out.

1) The entire rally has the shape of a three-wave A-B-C, rather than a five wave pattern.  The A-B-C is always counter-trend, implying that when the C wave terminates, the major downtrend will resume.  If this were really part of a five wave advance, the market would recover from the August swoon and go on to new highs in a fifth wave.  This is still a possible outcome, but it is of much lower odds because...

2) The major six-year uptrend line (in blue) is a solid line of support that has been broken in August and is now a line of resistance.  Note the several highly accurate touch points all the way along it, making it a highly reliable line.  The August break is a watershed event that has turned the bull market into a new bear market.

3) From August, the market has recovered and kissed the underside of the blue line of resistance.  If this is a genuine kiss, then the next move will be a scalded cat bounce down (a sharp retreat).  This is a typical reaction when the market, having broken key support and gingerly moved back to the line, is hit for six.  It is like the north poles of two magnets kissing - and repelling each other with force. 

And in the past two weeks, this is the action on the daily chart:

(click to enlarge)

I am calling the August plunge low a new large wave 1 and the rally to the kiss wave 2, which has the traditional counter-trend A-B-C form.  The scalded cat bounce down has now confirmed that the odds for the market to make a new high, let alone rise above the blue line, are slim.  The blue line has been tested and found to be strong resistance.

This all fits into my "third wave down" scenario.  Because third waves are usually long and strong, what does this imply?  Simply that the market is headed for a major decline.  Here are my ideas on the weekly chart:

(click to enlarge)

My first target is the Fibonacci 50% retrace of the entire six-year rally at the 5,300 region.  But my major objective is the Fibonacci 62% support level at the 4,800 area.  This is where previous lows were made on the way up (red arrows) and, because markets have long memories, this Fibonacci level contains extra-strong support potential.

I will be looking for a major wave 4 rally phase here, but, when completed, the market should descend in a fifth wave, which should test the 2009 lows at the 3,500 region.

To many, these may seem outrageous forecasts - and that may be a clue that complacency has set rock-hard.  We know that the global economy is weakening and is in a major deflationary spiral.  Debt levels everywhere are sky-high and interest rates have been kept super-low for years, but will soon start to rise.

Not only that, but there is trouble brewing in the credit markets, with US corporate junk bond defaults rising rapidly.  Bear markets in stocks usually start in the credit markets. Here is a sobering chart:

(click to enlarge)

Because debt levels are so much greater now than just before the Credit Crunch, rising defaults will have a greater impact across the debt spectrum - including the good-as-gold US Treasuries (and UK Gilts).

It will be a deflationary depression played out in the stockmarket - and I am sure I will be showing more bearish charts in COTW than bullish in the coming months.

Flash Alert

Overnight, the markets are reacting to the implications of the Paris bombings with early losses being erased.  Note that the low has been put in right on the Fibonacci 78% support level as shown on the hourly chart.  This is at the round-number 6,000 level:

(click to enlarge)

This is one more demonstration of how very important the Fibonacci levels are when looking for potential support or resistance levels.

385p +5p

Equities Research Company Update 16 November 2015
Research analyst : Robin Hardy

Still an under-valued stock: We have historically valued Telford on the same
basis as the volume national builders but this increasingly feels wrong. We see
unparalleled visibility, a clear long-term strategy, a solid focus on growth and, in
our view, still highly favourable local market dynamics. We still see fair value here
at 490p and believe that the stock is under-valued on both earnings and NAV
bases in a sector that otherwise appears stretched.

Telford Homes+

Fresh capital for capital growth
Telford Homes has raised £50m of new capital that will be used to expand,
accelerate and prolong growth. The capital base is expanded and with
continuing confidence in Telford’s local markets in London, we see greatly
enhanced prospects. The development pipeline already extends out to FY2024F
and contains up to £1.5bn of gross development value (GDV), 6.5x current year
revenue, and via the new funds we expect the pipeline to expand further from
FY2017F. This, along with close to £700m of forward sales, gives Telford by far
the greatest earnings visibility in the sector. Coupling the now substantial capital
base with still strong market opportunities for securing new sites and continued
strong buyer demand, we see great value here with fair value still at 490p. The
rating shows an FY2019F PER of 7.5x and P/NAV of 1.14x meaning this stock
presents material upside in a sector otherwise struggling to show any.

Long visibility, sustainable growth and FY2017F forecasts raised: The pipeline
of sites to bring through to development already stands at c.£1.5bn, having been
boosted by c.£500m via the £23m United House acquisition. Now that £50m of
additional resource is available to the group, we can see this expanding even
further as Telford looks to identify sites within the next 12 months and to commit
the new capital fully within two years. Supported by the new equity, we have
raised our PBT forecast for FY2017F from £25.1m to £31.9m

A still bullish market climate in Telford’s London: The media seeks to portray
high risk in London residential but we still see great opportunity for developers in
more affordable areas. Demand still heavily outweighs supply, population growth
is unabated, we see buyers gravitating towards markets offering greater relative
value and there is no practical evidence that buyer demand has diminished.
Widening the sales channel while also de-risking: Telford has opened a new
sales channel: the institutionally funded private rental sector (IPRS). We see this
becoming an important part of the London housing market, helping to bridge the
supply gap; it is good for a developer to align with this new market segment, in our
view. IPRS allows a site to run with minimal capital, no debt, full sales visibility
and earlier profit recognition while delivering overall

---------------
Telford Homes (Buy) - PEEL HUNT - 16 November 2016

2020 Vision
Telford Homes has raised £50m in new equity, which is to be invested in new developments. We forecast the group to double profits by 2020, with visibility on profits supported by a sector-leading forward sales position. The group is very well placed to grow output significantly in non-prime inner London, where the acute shortage of new homes is expected to persist. Our new target price of 475p implies potential upside of 29% and we retain our Buy recommendation.......
Https://s3.amazonaws.com/peelhunt/151113_Peel_Hunt_Telford_Homes_MN.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A&Expires=1447774715&Signature=%2Fsj%2FUlkutZITTy1TTzDr%2B6V46Qg%3D

Since around 9am the trades are more often and share price has warm up from the large spread at opening. 370 v 385p
Yesterday's closing price UT was at Offer price 385p

Also a catch up with the piers as most of them are up by 2 to 3%
a much stronger order book with DEPTH of 23 v 14

Research analyst - Robin Hardy - Equities Research Shore - 30 pages
Company Update -16 November 2015

Still an under-valued stock: We have historically valued Telford on the same
basis as the volume national builders but this increasingly feels wrong. We see
unparalleled visibility, a clear long-term strategy, a solid focus on growth and, in
our view, still highly favourable local market dynamics. We still see fair value here
at 490p and believe that the stock is under-valued on both earnings and NAV
bases in a sector that otherwise appears stretched.

TELFORD HOMES
Putting fresh capital into the capital
Telford has raised £50m of fresh equity capital by way of a placing to accelerate growth,
extend its growth phase, provide sufficient capital to enable the group to retain a fully flexible
business model and to enable it to grow the scale of its already materially expanded
business model and profit base. While at present our forecasts only show profit growth as
far out as FY2019F, we are already able to see the expanding development pipeline
delivering revenues and rising profits out as far FY2024F, facilitated initially by the recent
acquisition from United House. Deploying the new capital is expected to swell and elongate
this pipeline and help to deliver profit growth well beyond the current forecast high point of
some £46m PBT in FY2019F. On the enlarged capital base, we can see the group growing
profits throughout the pipeline delivery and we can readily see PBT forging on towards and
past £60m. At the same time we also see Telford essentially preserving its existing balance
sheet profile and de-risking the trading and financial profile of the group from a peak in
gearing as early as FY2017F.

On the current capital base, while it would have been possible to sustain profit growth, it
would have become harder to push profitability higher. So, additional capital was always
going to be needed, in our view, in order to: provide additional growth capacity; maintain
flexibility; ensure adequate resource for investment in new sites as they arise; reflect that the
group is now undertaking larger schemes with long delivery times and longer periods of
capital outlay.

Long visibility, sustainable growth and FY2017F forecasts raised: The pipeline
of sites to bring through to development already stands at c.£1.5bn, having been
boosted by c.£500m via the £23m United House acquisition. Now that £50m of
additional resource is available to the group, we can see this expanding even
further as Telford looks to identify sites within the next 12 months and to commit
the new capital fully within two years. Supported by the new equity, we have
raised our PBT forecast for FY2017F from £25.1m to £31.9m

A still bullish market climate in Telford’s London: The media seeks to portray
high risk in London residential but we still see great opportunity for developers in
more affordable areas. Demand still heavily outweighs supply, population growth
is unabated, we see buyers gravitating towards markets offering greater relative
value and there is no practical evidence that buyer demand has diminished.

Widening the sales channel while also de-risking: Telford has opened a new
sales channel: the institutionally funded private rental sector (IPRS). We see this
becoming an important part of the London housing market, helping to bridge the
supply gap; it is good for a developer to align with this new market segment, in our
view. IPRS allows a site to run with minimal capital, no debt, full sales visibility
and earlier profit recognition while delivering overall returns comparable to open
market sales. The first IPRS sales are forecast to benefit FY2017F.

Raising growth capital – old school but the right call: While the volume house
builders are reducing capital by making large returns to shareholders, raising
equity capital for expansion is a long-established sector trend. For Telford, we
believe it is the right call for the Board to have made at this point in the market.

Long visibility, sustainable growth and FY2017F forecasts raised: The pipeline
of sites to bring through to development already stands at c.£1.5bn, having been
boosted by c.£500m via the £23m United House acquisition. Now that £50m of
additional resource is available to the group, we can see this expanding even
further as Telford looks to identify sites within the next 12 months and to commit
the new capital fully within two years. Supported by the new equity, we have
raised our PBT forecast for FY2017F from £25.1m to £31.9m

A still bullish market climate in Telford’s London: The media seeks to portray
high risk in London residential but we still see great opportunity for developers in
more affordable areas. Demand still heavily outweighs supply, population growth
is unabated, we see buyers gravitating towards markets offering greater relative
value and there is no practical evidence that buyer demand has diminished.

Widening the sales channel while also de-risking: Telford has opened a new
sales channel: the institutionally funded private rental sector (IPRS). We see this
becoming an important part of the London housing market, helping to bridge the
supply gap; it is good for a developer to align with this new market segment, in our
view. IPRS allows a site to run with minimal capital, no debt, full sales visibility
and earlier profit recognition while delivering overall returns comparable to open
market sales. The first IPRS sales are forecast to benefit FY2017F.

Raising growth capital – old school but the right call: While the volume house
builders are reducing capital by making large returns to shareholders, raising
equity capital for expansion is a long-established sector trend. For Telford, we
believe it is the right call for the Board to have made at this point in the market.

There is a chronic and acute under-supply of new housing and, thereby, significant
opportunity for an ambitious London house builder to grow into these market conditions.
While raising fresh capital has become relatively uncommon in this sector, we believe that it
is absolutely the right thing for the Board to have undertaken at this stage and we see
benefits accruing for investors in both the near term and longer term.

Practical impact

The practical impact from the raising of new capital should be evident from as early as next
year and pushing on through to at least the middle of the next decade.

Shorter-term impact

As we map out in more detail later in this note, the boosting of the capital base and the long-term
benefits this brings also allows the group to see nearer-term benefits, effectively as soon as
FY2017F. It can appear that the new capital does not impact on the group until after FY2019F
when investment in the enlarged pipeline begins to deliver, but this is not actually the case.

Our previous forecasts reflected the impact of a planning delay on one site with some profits
from FY2017F pushed into later years and a step back in PBT in that year. Due to the
additional confidence for greater scale and enduring growth potential that the new capital
brings, the Board is now looking to bring forward profits originally targeted for later years.
This process will allow Telford simultaneously to restore its previously forecast progressive
path for profits through to FY2019F while remaining confident that the new capital will Extra capital to accelerate and prolong the group’s growth phase
There is still ample opportunity to grow in London new build market The fund raising brings benefits for investors as early as FY2017F

The new capital allows Telford to restore its steady progression of pre-tax profit

provide sufficient new opportunities to allow the steady progression in profits beyond
FY2020 and allow some profit from this period to be brought forward.

The mechanism for this restoration of a progressive profit profile is the decision to open a
new sales channel to augment the existing three, core, open market channels (selling to
owner-occupiers, UK investors and overseas investors). The new channel will be the
emerging institutionally funded private rental sector (IPRS). We discuss this new market and
its impact later in this note but, essentially, selling a small number of developments (initially
two) through this channel allows for both earlier capital release and earlier profit recognition.
At the same time, visibility is increased and the development pipeline de-risked.

So, by using the new capital to build a stronger pipeline for later years, there is able to be
visible benefit little more than a year after the equity raise. The greater part of the benefit,
however, comes in the group’s ability to deliver more growth, more sustainably across the
longer term.

Longer-term benefit





The new capital allows Telford to restore its steady progression of pre-tax profit

provide sufficient new opportunities to allow the steady progression in profits beyond
FY2020 and allow some profit from this period to be brought forward.

The mechanism for this restoration of a progressive profit profile is the decision to open a
new sales channel to augment the existing three, core, open market channels (selling to
owner-occupiers, UK investors and overseas investors). The new channel will be the
emerging institutionally funded private rental sector (IPRS). We discuss this new market and
its impact later in this note but, essentially, selling a small number of developments (initially
two) through this channel allows for both earlier capital release and earlier profit recognition.
At the same time, visibility is increased and the development pipeline de-risked.

So, by using the new capital to build a stronger pipeline for later years, there is able to be
visible benefit little more than a year after the equity raise. The greater part of the benefit,
however, comes in the group’s ability to deliver more growth, more sustainably across the
longer term.

Longer-term benefit

The new capital should allow Telford to sustain growth and push the business model beyond
its current scale and enable the group to drive PBT towards, and beyond, an annual pre-tax
profit of £60m, we estimate. Such a step up in the business model is only realistically
achievable with a larger capital base as a larger pipeline of sites and higher level of working
capital will be required. In practice, the additional £50m of equity capital should mean that
the group has up to £100m of additional development capital to deploy, running broadly the
same leverage model that is already in place.

At this level of profitability the group will have an enticing array of options for the use of a
substantially enlarged free cash flow. The options are: to expand at an accelerating rate;
materially increase the dividend distribution to shareholders; and reduce indebtedness in
order to maintain greater operational and strategic flexibility. Although the London market
appears capable of running a much long growth phase, residential development still remains
cyclical and the board, mindful of this, would then look at more rapid debt reduction, while
still maintaining profit growth. However, this remains a long way into the future so the
approach could change and Telford will look to remain as flexible as possible.

If housing market conditions in London would still safely support accelerated expansion at
that time then this decision could be changed. What is clear, however, is that thanks in no
small part to the decision to raise fresh equity capital now, the group should be able to
exhibit a longer period of growth yet still retain flexibility and present a robust balance sheet.

Overall

Telford has, in our view, created a stronger and more enduring business model through this
equity raising. There are both transparent near-term and longer-term benefits to profitability
while at the same time helping to manage risk and maintain flexibility. We see a
considerable market opportunity and firmly believe that the decision to invest in order to
grow is the right one at this stage, and certainly a better option than simply to return what
appears to be surplus capital to investors as we currently see at the volume end of the
sector.
Open a new sales channel is a key factor is boost near term profitability

In the longer term, the new money will be used to expand the development base and extend the
pipeline

At a large business scale the group has a range of options to deliver benefits for shareholders

Overall, a strong and more enduring business model has been created

Growing the development pipeline The development pipeline is exceptionally strong, now standing
at c.£1,500m

The recent United House acquisition was a major boost to the development pipeline

Up to £500m of GDV has been added The pipeline now visibly extends out as far as FY2024

Telford has an exceptionally strong development pipeline, this being expressed as the
aggregate gross development value (GDV) of all schemes the group intends to develop.
Back in September 2014, following the purchase of what is now the Manhattan Plaza
development, the development pipeline pushed above the £1bn mark for the first time in the
group’s history. The pipeline was further expanded by the purchase of the Chobham Farm
JV site in Stratford and the Redclyffe Road site in Upton Park. This was a continuation of a
long-run expansion of the ultimate built-out value of developments, which is summarised in
Figure 1 below.

The bulk of the development pipeline today is scheduled for delivery to customers and for
recognition in the P&L within our forecast window reaching out to FY2019F. Some of the
more recently acquired sites had already begun to push the later reaches of the pipeline out
to FY2020.

Fig 1: Telford’s pipeline development since 2012

As at

Pipeline - £m

Forward sales - £m

Reported sales - £m

November 2015

1,500

685

N/A

March 2015

1,070

550

251

March 2014

875

341

144

March 2013

627

280

142

March 2012

524

232

124

Source: Telford Homes

Through a balance of new additional sites and net realisations from the pipeline as sites
reached physical and legal completion, the pipeline had been stable at just above the £1bn
level running through the current financial year.

However, in September Telford announced that it had acquired four development sites from
the United House Group (a rival London development company) for up to £23m, a
substantial single transaction land deal by the group’s standards. This had a number of key
impacts on the development pipeline:

. It added up to £500m of GDV – a couple of the new sites are still awaiting full planning
consent, so we say that the pipeline is now boosted by up to £500m rather than an
absolute £500m. In reality, however, we have a high degree of confidence that these
sites will be developed as anticipated. So, practically, we can see the pipeline today
does have a value at around £1,500m.
. It pushes the furthest visible completions out as far as FY2024 – these acquisitions
should provide a sizeable revenue stream starting in FY2020 from City North and
Gallions Quarter Phase 1, with Chrisp Street and Gallions Phase 2 delivering sales
across FY2021-2024. This gives Telford visibility on a substantial part of targeted
revenues across a full nine financial years (if the current year is included), the longest
forward reach the group has ever presented. We also believe that this is the strongest
and most transparent forward visibility amongst all of the quoted house builders.

There is up to £100m of additional capital that should swell the pipeline substantially

Identify within 12 months and be fully committed within 24 Solid long-term foundations are now capable of being put in place
All the necessary tools for growth are now at hand

So, the pipeline has been stepped up using financial resources already in place before the
recent equity raise. The availability of up to £100m of additional development capital (£50m
of equity + potential peak gearing of up to 100%) provides scope for substantial additions to
the pipeline. In practice, the total amount available to deploy could be higher due to the
lower capital intensity of IPRS schemes, which we expect to be a feature through the life of
the development pipeline. It is difficult externally to assess precisely the timings of
developments or their individual scale or to assess the timing and impact of additional IPRS
sales but extrapolating the United House deal and other sites more recently acquired, we
believe that there is scope to add substantially to the forward sales value once the new
capital is deployed.

The group has stated that it aims to have identified the sites to acquire within 12 months and
to be fully invested in these sites within 24 months. Given that the group typically likes to see
relatively rapid deployment post site acquisition (the United House sites have a generally
longer profile of delivery than is typical for a Telford site), we would expect these new sites
to primarily fill out the pipeline between now and FY2024 rather than materially extend the
duration.

Although nearer-term site investments per se might not extend the lifespan of the pipeline,
the foundations for a longer delivery phase (i.e. beyond FY2024) are certainly being laid.
The group has the capacity to run from the middle of the next decade with a substantial
base of capital, rising through the materially high levels of retained profits now expected plus
the recycling of cash. As we examine in the ‘Numbers’ sector of this note, we believe that
the capital base, the consequent business scale and profit levels can be sustained alongside
a reduction in the group’s indebtedness. However, we still expect the total capital available
for development to remain above £500m; we are forecasting that this figure will be just
£264m at the end of the current financial year as a comparison.

As we discuss in the section on London, we see no shortage of potential sites within
Telford’s desired development locations. While the Board is looking to deploy a sizeable
sum within a relatively short space of time, we believe that there will be ample opportunity to
invest.

Therefore, Telford now has in place, in our view, all that it requires to secure the
developments it needs to deliver rising and sustainably higher levels of profitability across
the next 8-9 years. As we discuss later in this note, we remain confident in solid, sustainable
demand from the London market (more specifically Telford’s focus within London), the
benefits from a widening of the sales channel, little or no threat of over-supply and
confidence in a solid long-term.

Pre-sales and business confidence

A key feature when looking at Telford is the quality of its order book or forward sold position
(as distinct from the pipeline) which we view as being much stronger than that of site-based,
regional or national house builders. Essentially, Telford is very heavily forward sold on all of
the schemes that are in development or can otherwise be considered live and active sites.
All of the Stratford schemes launched more recently are either fully sold or have >90% of
units with exchanged contracts. It is a notable feature of Telford’s forward sales that typically
all are fully exchanged contracts rather than that of a volume house builder which would
more typically be a mix of reservations and exchanges. This means that Telford’s order book
is more robust.

The order book or forward sold position was reported in the recent H1 trading update at
£685m, covering units for delivery across five financial years from FY2016 to FY2020. To
put the size of the forward sales into context, Telford’s forecast annual reported revenue for
the full year to March 2016 is just £244m. For FY2017F, the forecast is £284m (as revised
following the placing) and for FY2018F, £369m (as revised). If compared with the forward
sold positions of the volume, national or mid-sized site-based builders (see Figure 2 below),
we can see just how strong a position this is.

Fig 2: Telford's order book versus other house builders

Forward sales

Next full year revenue

Years' of sales

Barratt^ (HOLD at 555p)

£2,332m

£3,897m

0.60

Bellway^ (HOLD at 2366p)

£1,087m

£2,015m

0.54

Berkeley^ (HOLD at 3014p)

£2,959m

£2,453m

1.21

Bovis^ (HOLD at 941p)

£844m

£1,110m

0.76

Crest Nicholson^ (BUY at 506p)

£436m

£939m

0.46

Persimmon^ (HOLD at 1805p)

£1,710m

£3,126m

0.55

Redrow ^ (HOLD at 430p)

£565m

£1,284m

0.44

Taylor Wimpey^ (HOLD at 175p)

£1,859m

£3,106m

0.60

Telford Homes

£685m

£244m

2.81

Source: Company presentations

The table shows how the forward or orders secured position for Telford is stronger relative to
the peers group of quoted house builders, even the more comparable peers which also have
a material position in London and a similar early-buyer profile. While this shows the relative
strength of the Telford order book, it still only tells part of the story. The visibility within the
group’s development pipeline is materially longer and stronger than this and we can see the
forward sold position increasing as more sites in the pipeline are brought forward for sale.

This strong position should provide a great deal of comfort for investors that the group’s
shorter and longer-term growth objectives are both tangible and credible. Such a strong
position can also only provide solid confidence for the Board that both its assessment of and
commitment to the London market is the right strategy and that the decision to enlarge the
capital base and expand is very much the right decision.
The strongest order position
relative to sales in the house
building sector

We can this see this position only
getting stronger

Widening the sales channel

A broader, stronger and more visible sales base can now be expected

The first schemes have already been identified for sales into this channel

Selling to institutional investors bring many and diverse benefits both operationally and for
shareholders

Above we mentioned that Telford is to add an additional sales channel by seeking to align
the group with the emerging and potentially significant IPRS market. We see this as an
important development and one that brings a wide range of benefits, both operationally and
strategically, for the business and also benefits investors by helping to improve the visibility
and resilience of earnings.

While the volume house builders remain wary of IPRS (considering it non-core and fearing
that it could indicate that they have become ex-growth), we see the development of this side
of housing supply as a near certainty and as a mechanism that has the potential to alter the
new build landscape. This would be most apparent in urban markets and materially more so
in London. Indeed, we would expect IPRS activity in London to dominate the national
picture.

What is Telford proposing in this space?

Starting with the 156-unit scheme at Caledonian Road in Islington, the group intends to
identify residential schemes from its development pipeline that would be suitable to sell in a
single transaction to an institutional buyer rather than bringing that scheme to market in the
established manner of targeted launches and progressive sales. Although recent schemes
have sold very rapidly on initial release, this same momentum may not continue at the same
pace in the future.

What advantages or benefits does selling into this channel bring?

. Certainty – an entire site can be forward sold in a single transaction bringing full
visibility of revenues and cash flow.
. Phased payments and cash flow – similar to the profile already visible in provision
under a contract for social housing, Telford would operate as something akin to a
contractor, receiving phased payments at contracted levels as the development
progresses.
. Capital intensity – the capital tied up in a scheme would be materially reduced. In
addition to the phased, contracted payments above, we would anticipate that Telford
would receive a larger, initial payment to, in effect, reflect the transfer of the land to the
IPRS buyer. This, and the receipt of phased payments, should mean that the group will
have released its capital earlier than the existing profile of 10% deposits (some buyers
pay an additional 10% deposit after 12 months) and the bulk of the cash as sales
revenue on legal completion.
. Long-term potential – we see a solid and growing demand from this class of buyer.
The introduction of institutional funds into the London residential market is a powerful
mechanism in helping to close the housing supply gap. While it would increase the
market share of rented accommodation, the reality is that home ownership is unlikely to
increase significantly at prevailing prices and that renting (ideally on less onerous and
longer-term leases than existing private rentals) more akin to that seen in the
Netherlands or Germany can expand and become seen as a core means of living in the
capital, even for families.

. Rationale – the rationale is that this is set to become a material part of the London
housing landscape and that it is better for the group’s operations and for the interests of
shareholders that the group be aligned with and benefit from the growth of this market
rather than risk see it potentially consume demand.
. Very similar returns to open market sales – Telford has only contemplated aligning
with this market where it can see that the overall return it is able to make is comparable
with sticking wholly to the existing fully open market sales routes. Returns from this
market space would be multi-faceted and while initial revenues and profit on a like-for-
like basis with open market selling could appear to be lower, this is not the case in
practice.

There is a widely, long-held and incorrect perception that bulk buyers of new homes
demand and achieve selling price discounts well in excess of 20%. This might have
been the case at key points in previous cycles but it is not the case today. If a bulk
investor wants to invest today, they find that the builder is on the front foot because
they can be confident that are able sell into the open market and achieve at least their
target returns. So, any discount to open market to Around 4% of revenue that would be spent on securing sales and making the
delivery of the unit and title to individual buyers would not now be incurred.
o If there is material competition between IPRS investors for Telford’s
developments, the group’s bargaining position will be more favourable.
o No interest costs – as capital tied up in land is recovered earlier and
development capital is funded by the purchaser, there would be little or no
debt required and there would be significantly lower interest charges to
capitalise into costs.
o Potential to redeploy capital – Telford would be able to use the earlier release
of capital from a development sold into this channel to secure new sites or
fund expanded working capital elsewhere. This would generate new and
additional streams of profit.
. ‘Sleeping with the enemy’ – whereas the national or volume house builders sell
almost exclusively to owner-occupiers (and to investors but only a minority) Telford has
a more diverse and flexible selling profile. It sells to occupiers, UK small investors and
overseas small investors in varying proportions depending on the nature of the
developments, the development timeframes, the investment climate and the condition
of the housing market. There is no fixed pattern and no one segment dominates or is of
more importance. Therefore, adding a fourth class of buyer in the form of a large
investor (potentially fourth and fifth if we believe there will be UK and overseas buyers)
is for Telford not so great a departure. However, it would be for a national or volume
house builder.

Selling in this way produces similar returns to open market sales but bring substantial capital advantages
While the volume builds are wary, we see great opportunities in this market space

But there is more to becoming aligned with this new class of buyer other than simply
bolting on a new class of buyer. The development of IPRS is potentially a highly
disruptive change in the UK housing market. There are clear problems for many potential
buyers with a lack of access to residential ownership through high deposit requirements
and growing competition for both first timers and first movers from the small-scale buy-to-
let market. The UK housing market landscape is changing and it is likely that what one
might call ‘new renting’ is likely to become a major part of UK housing.

There is a major vacuum in the UK housing market and a significant annual and
historically accrued shortfall or under-supply which it is increasingly apparent is not
going to be filled by either the existing larger house builders (lack of strategic will) or the
industry’s SMEs (lack of capital). All key stakeholders in the UK housing market (the
UK state, the lenders, the Bank of England, existing homeowners and existing
investors) have no desire to destabilise asset values

Beneficial impact of IPRS on Telford’s profit delivery

We are not expecting Telford’s decision to sell two schemes to IPRS investors to change
significantly the overall aggregate profit to be delivered across the four existing forecast
years FY2016-FY2019F. While we are forecasting now that FY2017F PBT will be higher, we
are not expecting the headline PBT in FY2018F or FY2019F to be materially different,
although the make-up of that profit will be a little different.

FY2016F – due to the long pipeline profile of the group’s developments, it is too late in the
financial year for any disposals to have any impact.

FY2017F – originally FY2017F was set to be affected by the planning delay at Caledonian
Road with some of the sales pushing back into FY2018F and FY2019F. The net effect was
forecast to be that profits would step back from the £30m forecast for FY2016 and match the
£25m reported for FY2015A. Now the Caledonian Road site and one other IPRS sale are
likely to make a material contribution to FY2017F through the earlier parts of the profit
recognition on the IPRS sales of the site. This contribution to EBIT would largely restore the
original PBT forecast (which was £32m). It is likely that a second development will also be
It is better to be a partner of this
new market element than a
competitor

Telford will maintain a balance
across its now four channels to
market

The benefits for this new channel
accrue from FY2017F onwards

PBT for FY2017F is restored to the
levels originally forecast earlier this
year

sold through the IPRS channel and we have modelled a small, early contribution from a
second site in this financial year.

FY2018F – we now expect the Caledonian Road site to deliver some of its profit in FY2017F
(in our previous, revised model the recognition was to be primarily in FY2018F) but we are
maintaining overall PBT forecasts for FY2018F. This will be achieved primarily via the earlier
recognition of profits from a second IPRS site

The IPRS contributions made especially in FY2018F bring forward some profit from
FY2019F.

FY2019F – into this year the only IPRS contribution is expected to come from site #2 but
again some of this profit will have been brought forward from the completion phase of such a
site in FY2020. So, FY2020 would need to have additional profit made available. There is
already some profit in the pipeline model for FY2020 visible from the early contributions from
the United House transaction but to ‘backfill’ for the IPRS some of the new capital will need
to be making a contribution. The Board has stated that the new capital will have been fully
deployed by mid-to-late calendar 2017, so from this we can see how the additional
contribution required by March 2020 can be delivered.

To our minds, this latter point in particular brings the practical impact of the new fund raising
much more into the near term, rather than seeing it as only being able to impact from
beyond FY2019F. Therefore, the fund raise needs to be viewed in parallel with the decision
to make sales into the IPRS channel. Having the new funds in place allows Telford to be
confident that additional developments will backfill for the schemes that IPRS brings
forwards.

FY2020F and beyond – we are not currently forecasting into this timeframe as too little of
the pipeline is today in place. The United House transaction certainly began to build the
pipeline in this period but with the IPRS sales bringing sale forwards from these later years
the new capital will be an important factor in increasing the scale of the pipeline beyond
2020.

Conclusion

We see this alignment with IPRS investors as an important and highly beneficial
development for Telford Homes. We see that it could provide a new and potentially
substantial class of buyer, allow the group to make highly comparable total returns versus
open market sales, to improve internal and external trading visibility and the ability at the
same time to de-risk the group.

FY2018F surrenders some profit to
FY2017F and also brings some
forwards from later years

FY2019F is expected to bring profit
forwards from beyond the current
forecast window.

We expect IPRS to continue to
bring benefit well beyond FY2020

Raising money has become uncommon in this sector

That Telford has raised new equity capital can appear out of line with what is happening
elsewhere in the house building sector. The group is consuming capital at a time when the
rest of the sector seems to be running large capital surpluses and, instead, returning capital
to shareholders. In reality the story is somewhat more complex than this and reflects very
different strategic approaches taken by Telford and those in the volume sector.

So, why does it appear that the volume house builders are releasing capital while Telford
looks to be consuming it?

Cyclical quirks

The high free cash flows of this cycle for the volume house builders are, in our view, a quirk
or near-freak occurrence and that the more natural profile for a house builder mid-cycle
(which is where we still believe that we are in the national, mainstream, family housing
market) would be to be consuming capital as they expand into a visibly available and under-
supplied market. What Telford is doing by investing in order to grow is more traditional, more
‘old-school’ and, in our view, the right thing to be doing at this stage, although it does not
prevent it from looking out of step.

Land creditors – the volume house builders are generating ‘free’ capital surpluses by not
paying land owners for land until much later in the cycle. We see this as both a quirk of this
cycle (high land supply and low competition) and a feature limited to the ex-London markets.

Government stimulus – between 33-40% of the volume housing stock sold today requires
the buyer to use ‘help-to-buy’ (HTB) mortgages. This has made selling houses both quicker
and cheaper than would otherwise have been possible given affordability levels. Volume
house builders are able to sell houses at close to 100% of the asking price (more normally
95-96%) while incurring minimal incentive costs (cash or capital). These features are simply
not repeatable in the London market where Telford has made only a handful of HTB sales
since the scheme began.

The large house builders are reluctant to grow – while the more mid-cap builders are
expanding, the ‘big 3’ of Barratt , Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon are likely to show output
growth decelerating to just 3-4% by 2018. That means an unusually higher EBIT-to-cash
conversion now but does risk starving shareholders of growth much later in the cycle.

Model change

Telford has an emerging and changing business model which means that it is building
generally larger schemes with longer development cycles than it has hitherto. Couple this
with a desire to expand the group’s scale more broadly and it is clear that additional capital
was needed. To be pursuing a higher rate of growth such as this is uncommon in the sector
at present and even the smaller to medium-sized volume builders, seen as more growth
orientated, are only seeking relatively modest expansion.

The way things used to be

House builders raising equity capital in order to grow was very much the norm historically,
and has long been a mechanism used by Telford Homes. However, it has been a long time
since most house builders sought additional funds or growth capital in this way. Between
An ‘old school’ approach to growth for a house builder Cash generating house builders are, in our view, just a quirk
We do not see the current elements that boost house builders free cash as sustainable
There is free cash in the volume

House builders can, in the long term, only growth by consuming more capital

2000 and 2007 the preferred method for funding growth was using additional debt or by
making paper-for-paper consolidating acquisitions. In the current phase of the housing
market, there has been a high level of free cash flow for the various reasons we highlight
above coupled with a lack of desire in many cases to grow significantly after the initial
recovery period post 2009.

Telford has a naturally more cash consumptive model

In order to expand Telford has to buy more land, hold that land for perhaps three years with
limited scope to release the capital until completion and commit 80+% of the GDV in working
capital before being able to release material capital. Volume house builders would expect to
be net cash generative within less than one year after deployment of new capital.

Despite being a path less trodden, raising equity for growth is a natural progression for
Telford’s business model, it has historically been the norm for growing house builders and is,
in our view, the right thing for this group to be doing as this stage in its evolution.

Telford has a naturally more cash consumptive model than a volume
house builder

London – still a great place to do business

Raising new capital for growth is all well and good as long as the available market and buyer
demand remains intact. The media has sought, for some time, to portray the London
housing market as being in a bubble that is about to burst, causing demand to close down
and selling prices to reverse. We disagree and see almost the polar opposite of this with the
locales and product positioning that the group looks to service in London instead showing
strong, positive dynamics.

Population and the chronic under-supply in London

The rate of household formation growth in London due to population expansion drives a
notional need for 50,000-60,000 new homes per annum (owned or rental, private or public).
Replacement of old stock lifts this a little higher still in practice. In 2014, only around 18,000
new homes were built across all London boroughs despite housing being listed as a key
focus by the Mayor and the GLA. This current under-supply adds to an existing backlog that
reaches back 20 years or more, leaving London overall with at least 800,000 fewer homes
than it needs.

Home ownership in London has been materially lower than the national average for many
years so the tenure of new housing developed in the capital is always set to be different
from the profile of volume house building outside the capital. Therefore, it is important that
any housing developer in London is able to provide new homes for a variety of tenures. This
fits well with Telford’s highly flexible approach to selling and this has long allowed the group
to present differing buyer profiles depending on market conditions and the dynamics of
individual developments. Through the alignment with the IPRS market, Telford should now
be able to present an even more flexible sales profile.

Fig 3a: London’s micro population change, 2001-2011 Telford’s focus area ringed

Fig 3b: Telford’s current and potential development focus

Source: Housing in London 2014 – GLA/Mayor’s Office

We still see a good market in Telford’s target markets within the capital
Still far too few news homes are being built across London There are significant tenure shifts taking place as part of a long term trend

 

Fig 4: Population growth of London – historical and forecast (000s)

Source: ONS

Fig 5: Population growth vs. household formation, 2001-2011

Source: Housing in London 2014 – GLA/Mayor’s Office

Relative affordability

This is a term widely used by the group and while the price of homes sold by the group
might appear high in a national context, within the London market the group’s selling prices
are certainly at mid-market or below price points. In Figure 6 below we show in red the
historical or likely future locations in which Telford Homes will develop, which supports the
notion of relative affordability.

Fig 6: Average asking price by London borough

Source: Rightmove

Relative affordability is, however, not just about finding the lowest-priced local markets
possible. There are many areas in London where prices are materially lower than the
group’s typical offering but where it would be harder to envisage a reasonable balance of
demand. Telford, for example, will always aim to build only where transport links are good as
this is a key demand driver. Also there are areas where pricing might be relatively attractive
but there could be too great a bias towards a particular class of buyer.

Absolute affordability

Although house prices in London have risen sharply, the same is not true for mortgage payments

As we have argued previously, thanks to the fall in mortgage rates since 2010, the cost of
operating a mortgage in Telford’s chosen local markets has risen by materially less than
headline house price inflation might suggest. While in many areas selling prices are 40% or
more above their post-crisis lows, mortgage costs have increased by materially less. Indeed,
when considering the borrowing profile of a more typical buy-to-let investor (using interest-
only loans and moderate LTVs) it is materially cheaper to operate a mortgage now than it
was in 2009.

There are many parts of London in which homes are still relatively affordable – this is where Telford builds

In the series of charts below we show how an increasing headline average selling price has
been strongly eroded by lower borrowing costs and rising wages. On the latter point, while
wage growth is relatively low by historical measures, there has nonetheless been a rise in
national average wages of some 11% since the start of 2009. We have modelled the London
Borough of Newham, an area we see as being a fair representation of where the group is
building in London.

Mortgage rates at LTVs typical for
the group’s buyers have dropped
sharply in the last 12 months

Wage adjusted mortgage
payments for a typical Telford
buyers are, we believe, lower than
in 2009

The chart in Figure 7 below shows that, in absolute terms, a 75% LTV, five-year fixed rate
mortgage on a 25-year repayment basis costs only 10% more per month in cash terms than
in Q1 of 2009 despite average house prices rising by 37%. An interest-only mortgage on the
same basis actually costs 22% less; interest-only might be more typical for an investor
buyer.

Fig 7: Mortgage costs vs. house prices – cash cost basis (Q1 2009 = index 100)

Source: Bank of England, GLA, ONS, Shore Capital Markets

Adjusting for average wage growth in the same period (see Figure 8), we see that the
repayment mortgage costs 1% less per month versus Q1 2009 and interest-only, 30% less.
While this is a national phenomenon, it is brought into sharper focus in London as this is
where prices have risen the furthest since the low points after the financial crisis and
potentially affordability looks the most pressured.

If a market bubble is in fact inflating as many observers suggest, then by definition the price
of the asset has to have detached markedly from the buyer’s ability to pay for it. As we show
here, that is certainly not the case in the ‘relatively affordable’ parts of the London market in
which Telford operates.

Fig 8: Mortgage costs vs. house prices – wage inflation-adjusted (Q1 2009 = index 100)

Source: Bank of England, GLA, ONS, Shore Capital Markets

Affordability migration or drift

We believe that increasingly
numbers of buyers will seek for
homes in Telford’s chosen local
markets

We see greater wealth benefits in
the London market than elsewhere

Pension reforms are likely to be a
great help in this market

There may be valid concerns about an overpricing of the housing market in the likes of Nine
Elms, Kensington or Westminster but we do not see any such pressures of either excessive
pricing or over-supply in Telford’s locales. Indeed, we believe that demand is likely to move
increasingly into the areas of greater relative affordability, such as Stratford, Poplar,
Newham or Bermondsey where Telford operates today or similar areas in which it is likely to
work in future. Whereas prices in Newham, for example, have risen by ~40% since the start
of 2009, Westminster has seen a rise of 132% and Kensington & Chelsea, 118%.

Other positive factors for new build in London

There are also a number of factors that we believe are still highly favourable to the London
market, and, in particular, new build. These include:

Intergenerational transfers - Generally we believe that there is a far greater level of
capability for new entrants to the housing market to receive financial help from parents or
grandparents in London than elsewhere in the UK due to higher wealth accumulation. We
also see greater scope for more material releasing of equity by trading down than in
provincial markets.

Pensions and the Gen-X surge - Pension freedoms are a potential factor across the UK
but we see the scope being again greater in London. There is a surge in numbers in the
population approaching 55 (peaking in 2019) and we believe that the impact of early tapping
of pension pots is likely to be greatest in the capital. We would expect to see both direct
investment into buy-to-let and cross-generational investment to help first time buyers into
owner-occupation.

All stakeholders in the market desire continued positive market conditions

Investor appetite for London residential is still high
London residential is a discrete global asset class

New build in London is largely divorced from weak transaction
chains

London is largely free of the distorting interventions that impact on the volume housing sector

Stakeholders and policy - Nationally it is not in the interest of any housing market
stakeholder (the BoE, The Treasury, lenders, investors or existing home owners) to see a
major reversal in the housing market. While the seemingly right course of action might be to
raise housing supply, the conference speech by David Cameron on potentially eliminating
social housing provision shows that policy is likely to remain firmly on the demand-side.

Strong investor dynamics - We still see strong and very recent evidence that investor
demand remains high in the London housing market, or perhaps more pertinently, in the
more affordable part in which Telford operates. Demand has been strong right through 2015
to date and even as recently as 8th October Telford sold 18 of 32 remaining units at
Stratosphere (Stratford 3) in just one day.

Global investment demand - London residential is, essentially, a discrete asset class and
is one into which we expect to continue to see a net inflow of funds. London residential is not
only purchased for the pure rental income returns but for many and diverse reasons: it is
seen as a store of value much akin to gold, which investors still buy despite price gyrations
and for many it could be viewed as the Swiss bank account of the 21st Century; geared
capital returns with readily available long-term funding which is not readily repeatable in
other asset classes; capital growth has been steadier and more reliable than many other
asset classes; the UK is a relatively low tax regime for residential; residential investment has
relatively low regulation.

Freedom from chain issues - One of the major problems we see in the wider housing
market is the inability for transaction chains to function. Essentially there are too many
homeowners who would like to move but are unable to because their funding gap is too
wide. New builds, in general, can bypass this problem through the use of mechanisms such
as part-exchange but in general, chain pressures can still be an issue when selling almost
exclusively to owner-occupiers. Telford does not, generally, have the same pressures.

Although owner-occupiers are still an important source of buyer, they are now to be just one
of four sources of buyer with the other three sources being essentially free of potential chain
issues as they are a single point transaction.

House building in London avoids many volume sector pressures - There are some
growing concerns on several issues related to new housing that, while pertinent to the
volume market, do not really apply to new builds in London. This means that while volume
builders could easily see a less rosy climate as we move forwards, the development market
in London is less likely to see such changes.

. Help-to-buy – some national house builders have come to rely very heavily on this state-
funded incentive, which is used by up to 40% of purchasers. The long lead times more
typical of new home purchases in London means that HTB is rarely a feature. If house
price inflation nationally continues to rise, there is a risk that HTB will become more
restricted. While an issue for volume builders, this would have very little impact in Telford
Homes: only a handful of units have been sold since the start of HTB.

. Use of land creditors – the volume house builders have been heavy users of ‘land
creditors’, which allows them to develop sites now but pay later. This has become a key
part of overall capital for some larger house builders. Again this is barely a feature in
London and should such a source of capital reduce nationally, it is unlikely to impact in
London.
. Unreal land environment – the very substantial rise in land coming through the planning
system nationally

Perceived negative for London new build

More recently there have been some new or revised factors that could be seen as being a
negative for the London market (and the investment buyer in particular) and these factors
have raised some questions about sustainability.

Buy-to-let tax changes - Taxation of rental incomes is set to become less favourable by 2020
and this has sparked fears of a reduction in demand or perhaps a sustained sell-off. We continue
to believe that many buyers already have low expectations of making significant net income
(mortgage rates are not dissimilar to net rental yields) but rather look to the geared returns from
only investing 20-30% of the capital but getting back 100% of any inflated return. Some may sell
but we believe most will remain invested. Across the buy-to-let universe a significant number of
assets are owned outright and in London the strong market in recent times has served to push
down LTVs materially.

China - The slower economic growth in China caused some observers to question whether
demand for London residential from the Far East would dry up. We do not see this as: 1)
growth is slowing not reversing in China; 2) the wealthy middle class is still growing (typically
these are Telford’s buyers not the super-rich); 3) there is scope for Chinese investors wary
of local assets or stock markets to seek greater investment diversity internationally; 4) China
is just one market with a significant amount of Telford’s Far East demand coming from Hong
Kong, Malaysia or Singapore.

General interest rate concerns - This is an issue nationally, and in London; we take the
view that mortgage rates have dropped by close to 100bps in the last year so the practical
impact of rising interest rates is likely to be less than was feared 12 months ago. Recent
comments from the Bank of England suggest that rate rises may not come until 2017 and
still rise slowly. Therefore, mortgage interest rates may not return to 2014 levels until 2018
or 2019.

Overall, we see the positives in London outweighing the negatives and also that the
perceived negatives are likely to be less of an issue than many observers might expect.
Other issues or points of concern on housing and policy relate to volume house building in
provincial markets with limited impact in London. However, we believe that these factors
We see concerns over tax changes for buy-to-let as being over-played

We remain positive on demand from the Far East

Balance sheet

The capital base of the group is materially enlarged by this fund raising. Prior to the raise,
the group’s NAV was £120m or 199p per share at the March 2015 balance sheet date.
Therefore, this capital raise drives not only a material increase in the capital base of the
group but also boosts the NAV/share as the fresh equity has been issued at a material
premium (360p) over historical and prospective book values.

Despite the expansion of the balance sheet, the group retains a relatively equity-light capital
structure with higher leverage, which has been the case through most of the group’s 15-year
trading history. Practically, the group’s indebtedness is much lower than the headline due to
the high cover from forward sales and deposits. Although this balance sheet profile is less
common in the volume housing sector in this phase of the housing market (indeed most
house builders have essentially no debt and many have headline net cash), we believe that
the house builders are in practice more indebted than the headline numbers suggest; if the
quasi-debt form of land creditors is treated as debt, the profile of the sector’s balance sheets
changes somewhat.

Nonetheless, the group retains a different capital structure by design and we are happy with
this structure as we have a high level of confidence that the markets remain favourable and
that the group’s developments will continue to sell strongly and deliver our expected levels
of profit and asset turn.

Good for the WACC

In being the only house builder with material gearing, we believe that Telford has an
advantage in that its cost of capital (WACC) is much lower than that of the peer group.
According to the Bloomberg computation of WACC, the volume house builders show capital
cost in the range of 8.0% to 9.6% whereas Telford’s cost of capital is just 6%, reflecting the
lower cost of debt versus equity at this stage.

Higher debt but we see limited risk

As the group has expanded the capital base and enlarged its capacity for bank finance, it is
possible that observers could begin to see a raised risk profile. We disagree with this
viewpoint as we see the London housing market climate as still favourable, with improving
wider economic well-being, as well as the adoption of a wider sales base and as our
confidence in the group to deliver its pipeline through to cash and profit remains high.

While the group’s mode of operation does involve long lead times, from all recent
developments there have been strong forward sales and all active and recently completed
sites have fully sold out within or before expected timeframes.

We see little risk of walkaways

One concern always surrounding larger and longer-running housing developments, especially in
London, is that buyers who have contracted to buy will not fully complete the transaction. While
there are always likely to be buyers for whom circumstances make completion impossible, very
close to 100% of contracts exchanged in recent years have made it through to full legal
A substantially enlarged capital base will fuel long term growth

Telford’s balance sheet remains fairly equity-capital light

Telford has a materially lower WAAC than its peers
While debt is higher, it is very well covered by forward sales and deposits

We see few buyers failing to complete

completion. In the weaker market conditions between 2007 and 2009, there were a number of
buyers unable to complete but we do not see a repeat of this for a range of reasons:

. Buyer quality is higher today – buyers today rarely have greater than 80% LTV and
are typically borrowing without extensive leverage on their income or net worth. In
2006-07, a greater number of buyers bought with a 90% LTV (or higher), some with
considerable personal leverage.
. Higher deposits – buyers are putting in larger down-payments than in the last cycle.
The average selling price is higher, today standing at around £440,000 (materially
higher on some of the later delivery developments) against an average of £250,000 in
2007. In addition, deposits of up to 20% are held (some investor buyers will make a
second 10% down-payment 12 months after exchange) versus a maximum of 10% in
the last cycle. The surrendering of a deposit is, therefore, a substantially greater
undertaking in today’s market.
. Strong re-sale potential – where there were walkaways in 2007-09, the group was
able in essentially every case to re-sell the property and record a similar total revenue
once the retained deposit was taken into account.

Safety first view on deposits

The strength of the investment buyer market in the past 2-3 years has been exceptional and
many of the schemes brought to market have achieved 80+% reservations rates within the
first few days or weeks after the launch. As buyers are now required to pay a minimum 10%
on exchange (plus another 10% a year later if they are an investment or early buyer) a
considerable bank of cash has accrued that has helped to reduce the working capital burden
for the group. At the last balance sheet date, the group held some £63.7m (now c.£67m
after recent site launches such as Bermondsey Works and Manhattan) in pre-payments from
buyers and, although this figure is likely to change (depending on the balance between new
site launches and the levels of legal completions), it is expected to remain at a substantial
level through the rest of this financial year.

The reason the deposit bank has been so high has been because recent development
launches have attracted a greater number of investment buyers. In FY2014A, the group
reported that around one-third of buyers were owner-occupiers, where exchange of
contracts is typically later in the development cycle and typically three to six months before
handover. In FY2015A, owner-occupiers were 13% of forward sales leaving a greater
proportion of earlier deposits on a materially larger pipeline (forward sales at March 2014
were £341m on a pipeline value of £875m and at March 2015 £550m of forward sales were
secured on a pipeline of £1,070m). Therefore, it is easy to see how this forward funding
position was so strong.

While the pipeline is growing, it is probably more prudent to assume that the very high levels
of early demand seen in the past two years do not continue at quite the same pace as the
housing market has been cooling in London (but is still positive in Telford’s locations).
However, offsetting this is the group’s intention to undertake one or more IPRS schemes
where the cash flow profile is even more compressed towards the early weeks and months
The bank of deposits held by Telford is, and is expected to remain, high

A longer, larger pipeline and more early buyers than is seen in open market sales. Overall, the level of forward selling cash from all sources
is likely to increase, dependent on the precise timing of any IPRS transaction.

Leverage effect

Telford has a long record of successfully running with a more leveraged balance sheet

The capital base is expanding
rapidly

As already mentioned, Telford Homes has always been comfortable running a more highly
leveraged balance sheet with a relatively low level of shareholders’ equity. Going forwards
the group intends to continue to run with relatively high leverage due to investment made in
generally higher-value sites, the greater numbers of sites and the naturally higher levels of
work-in-progress on higher GDV developments.

We have been forecasting a peak in gearing in FY2017F for some time now and, despite the
raising of the new equity, we continue to forecast a similar timing and similar peak for
gearing, highlighting that the group intends to use the monies from the placing to scale up
the business, not pay down the debt. Running the balance sheet as forecast with higher
leverage and higher levels of capital employed (see Figure 9) shows high confidence by
management in the market and its position within it and underscores, as below, that there is
no shortage of ambition here.

Larger capital base for a larger business

Our cash flow and balance sheet forecasts suggest that by the end of the current forecast
window in FY2019F, the group will have close to £500m of total capital employed in its
housing operations, which compares with just £101m in FY2014A and £173m in the
FY2015A balance sheet.

The pace at which the capital employed is growing is impressive and again underscores the
scale of management’s confidence and ambitions for the group.

up to page 23

RE - Lime harbour

Planning permission granted 3rd November for the increase in number of apartments . Its only taken a few months to get through Tower Hamlets

SHARE PRICE % below 52 week high

For those who like to compare.
MJG.......down 3%
BWY.......down 7%
RDW.....down 11%
TW.......down 11%
BKG.....down 12%
CRST....down 13%
PSM......down 13%
BDEV....down 14%
BVS......down 18%
TEF.......down 22%

one interpretation of that is that we have fallen too far and have the most to gain to reach the previous 52 week high.

Published: Nov 18, 2015 10:45 a.m. ET By JEFFRY BARTASH
Yet rebound in permits signal increase in construction

The National Guard was plenty busy in October when heavy flooding wracked South Carolina. But many home builders had to put construction on hold.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Home builders scaled back construction in October, especiall in the South where storms and flooding disrupted work.

So-called housing starts fell 11% last month to an annual rate of 1.06 million, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That’s the lowest level since March.

Housing starts in September were also revised down slightly to a seasonally adjusted 1.19 million rate.

Yet a rebound in permits to build new homes suggests the slowdown in October is likely to be temporary. Permits rose 4.1% last month to a 1.15 million annual rate.

The reduced level of construction in October occurred primarily in the South, where starts fell 18.6%. Half of all new homes are being built in the South, the fastest growing part of the country.

Permits to build new homes in the South, however, rose in October to the highest level in eight years, a sign builders are moving forward with new construction.

What’s more, nationwide permits for single-family homes rose 2.4% in October to an annual rate of 711,000. That’s the highest level since the end of 2007. Single-family homes account for about three-quarters of the U.S. housing market.

“Rising building permits signal that housing activity remains on an expansionary path,” said Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics. Sales and construction of new homes have been rising amid a surge in hiring and an improved U.S. economy.

The number of new homes already under construction is also at a seven-year high. What’s especially hot are buildings with five units or more that are likely to be rented. Construction on these buildings hit a 41-year peak last month.

An improving housing market has been one of the bright spots for the U.S. economy over the past year. While a bit of a slowdown is expected during the winter, builders are still very optimistic.
-------------------------
Builders dial back confidence in November - Published: Nov 17, 2015 10:25 a.m.
Home builder index drops but still showing ‘good’ conditions, NAHB says - By ANDREA RIQUIER

Sentiment among home builders eased but remained strong in November, according to a closely-watched index.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index pulled back 3 points to 62, a bit weaker than the 64 reading expected by economists polled by MarketWatch. That’s 4 points higher than the reading of 58 notched a year ago, and the average so far in 2015, also 58. A reading over 50 signals improvement.

Builder views of sales conditions in the next six months fell 5 points to 70. The index measuring views of current conditions dipped 3 points to 67. The buyer traffic index rose 1 point to 48. That index hasn’t topped the neutral 50 line since 2005.

An improving job market and increasing wages are bolstering the housing market. The unemployment rate is at the lowest level since the recession, and inflation-adjusted wages have climbed 2.4% in the past 12 months, the Labor Department separately said Wednesday.

Home builders broke ground on more homes than at any time since 2007 in September, and demand for both new and previously owned homes remains hotter than supply.

Builder confidence was mostly elevated in 2015, despite the dip in November. But NAHB noted in a release that “members continue to voice concerns about the availability of lots and labor.”

Builders have reported strong results in the most recent earnings season. D.R. Horton DHI, +0.86% , the largest U.S. company, reported a 44% jump in profit in the most recent quarter, with orders up 19%.

Lennar LEN, +0.63% , the number-two builder by volume, also reported profit and revenue that were better than expected. Orders rose more than 10%, the company said.

An exchange-traded fund tracking the home builders, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF XHB, +0.79% , was slightly higher on Wednesday and has climbed 10% over the last year.

From the Telegraph - 28 November 2015

Will the buy-to-let tax derail housebuilders' shares?

The Autumn Statement offered both good and bad news for housebuilders. We asked leading fund managers how they view the firms' prospects now

Housebuilder shares have soared since the financial crisis.

Housebuilders' shares have rocketed over the past five years, benefiting from favourable government policies, record low interest rates and cheap mortgages.
Rising house prices and pent-up demand outweighing supply have been a winning formula for those investors who bravely bought these bombed-out shares five years ago.
As the table below shows, all of the shares in the sector had rock-bottom valuations five years ago. The majority had a "price to book" ratio of the less than one, offering investors a discount to the value of the firm’s assets.

Those investors who bought in have reaped the rewards – shares in Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments, for example, have risen by more than 600pc.
Last week, however, prices were turbulent in the wake two unexpected political moves: one of them positive and the other negative for housebuilding businesses.

The good news, a government pledge to deliver 400,000 new homes by the end of the decade, leaked out before the Chancellor, George Osborne, even stood up to deliver his Autumn Statement on Wednesday.
Shares in the sector rallied, with the majority making gains of 4pc or more in the first couple of hours of trading.
But when Mr Osborne delivered his speech, which included an unexpected stamp duty hike for buy-to-let investors, share prices fell, giving up around half their gains.

Investors took profits amid fears that the surprise tax increase could dampen overseas investor interest and pull the plug on developments that are already in the pipeline.

Fund managers' reactions: the bears
Chris White, head of equities at Premier, a fund manager, is in the bearish camp and sold shares in his last housebuilder, Crest Nicholson, a couple of weeks ago, in expectation of “potential storm clouds on the horizon” for the housebuilders.
Mr White said: “Although the Government wants to encourage housebuilding, partly to give the economy a boost, the Autumn Statement has hit landlords and potential second home owners, which will be negative at the margins.
“This gives us some concern that prices and volumes may not meet market expectations in 2016. Both labour and materials costs are rising, which may put pressure on profits.”

Another negative point is the fact that an interest rate rise is on the cards in America next month, which is likely to be followed in Britain in the second half of next year.
A rising interest rate environment does not usually correlate with positive performance for housebuilders' shares, as rising mortgage costs tend to put the brakes on demand for new properties.
The final note of caution is that valuations have arguably become too expensive, with the sector becoming more and more popular with investors. As the table shows, on the "price to book" measure valuations have more than trebled in most cases.

Share price performance over five years
Price to book ratio five years ago
Price to book ratio today
Taylor Wimpey
661%
0.7
2.4
Barratt Developments
691%
0.3
1.6
Persimmon
422%
0.9
2.6
Berkeley Group
278%
1.3
2.6
Bellway
369%
0.7
2
Redrow
299%
0.7
1.8
Crest Nicholson
95% (since February 2013)
N/A*
2.5
Bovis Homes
175%
0.8
1.4
Galliford Try
411%
0.5
2.1
* Was not listed on the stock market five years ago
Source: ShareScope

Fund managers' reactions: the bulls
But fund managers who are not rushing to bank their profits say the interest rate argument does not stack up. Rates will rise only slightly and slowly, they say.
They also disagree that, together, the two policy measures will negatively affect the housebuilders.

Richard Watts, who runs the Old Mutual UK Mid Cap fund, has been a big backer of the sector over the past couple of years and remains so.
Mr Watts said the shares were no longer bargains, but, given the shortage of houses, first-time buyers would fill any gap in demand left by buy-to-let investors.

Luke Newman, co-manager of the Henderson UK Absolute Return fund, agreed. He said: “Britain does not have enough houses to keep pace with its growing population. In recent years the Government has tried to stimulate housebuilding through policies such as the Help to Buy scheme, the loosening of planning laws and curbing local authorities’ ability to block development.
“The announcements of plans for 400,000 new affordable homes in England by 2020 and a new Help to Buy scheme for London are a welcome continuation of this policy.”
Other professional investors pointed to the fact that housebuilders were “cash rich” and would continue to return money to shareholders in the form of dividend payments.

Julian Chillingworth, chief investment officer at Rathbones, the fund group, said he viewed the sector as more of an income investment, rather than expecting a repeat of the huge share price gains in the coming years.
“The housebuilders are in strong financial positions and have plenty of cash," he said. "The yields are attractive and I expect some one-off payments – special dividends – also to be paid from time to time.”

Dividend yield*
Dividend cover
Taylor Wimpey
5%
1.6
Barratt Developments
5.2%
1.7
Persimmon
5.1%
1.7
Berkeley Group
4.7%
1.6
Bellway
3.6%
3
Redrow
2.1%
5.6
Crest Nicholson
3.7%
2.5
Bovis Homes
4.4%
2.4
Galliford Try
5.6%
1.6
* Forecast – based on analysts' expectations in one year's time.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares/12021154/Will-the-buy-to-let-tax-derail-housebuilders-shares.html

H1 results this Wednesday?
380p
There is a lot of comment in the press at the moment about home builders shares being "toppy" right now but with the housing market the way it is, there could well be significant SP growth to come for all of them. They are priced very cheaply against the wider market in P/E terms anyway.
On the basis of the two detailed broker notes issued recently, TEFs has an EV of about 459p to 465p for December so there is a healthy margin of safety for buyers at the present SP and it will be interesting to see what the company has to say when it publishes its H1 results this Wednesday.

It would be helpful if HPI does not exceed about 5% per annum from now onwards to prevent affordability criteria becoming stretched. There is a risk that the BOE may tighten lending restrictions on private BTL landlords this week but doubtless the homebuilders will negotiate more favourably with their regular,repeat purchase BTL clients.
At the end of the day, the government wants more homes built and they are not going to achieve that by discouraging buyers of any type and you don't help the lower end first time buyers by bashing the market further up the ladder.

StockMarketWire.com
Telford Homes has more than doubled its H1 pretax profit to GBP21.0m, from GBP9.4m. Revenue was GBP139.6m, from GBP65.1m.

CEO Jon Di-Stefano commented:
"A fundamental lack of supply of homes in London is contributing to strong demand for our properties in non-prime locations. As a result we have a sector leading forward sold position which gives the Board exceptional visibility over future profits and cash flows.

"Our recent acquisition of the regeneration business of United House and an equity placing raising £50 million are important steps in delivering on the Board's longer term growth targets.

"We will continue to invest the placing funds over the next few months, having already acquired a substantial site with planning permission for 206 homes, and the Board is very confident in the prospects for Telford Homes over the next few years."

HIGHLIGHTS
· Profit before tax more than doubled to £21.0 million (H1 2014: £9.4 million)

· Margins remain in excess of the Group's target levels

· Interim dividend increased to 6.5 pence (H1 2014: 5.1 pence)

· Focus on non-prime locations in London where demand remains strong

· Acute shortage of new homes driving longer term growth plans

· Forward sales of more than £700 million to be recognised from the year to 31 March 2016 onwards

· Institutional private rented sector investment expected to contribute sales in the future

· United House acquisition has increased the development pipeline to over £1.5 billion

· Successful equity placing raising £50 million to take new opportunities and accelerate growth

· Immediate progress made in utilising the funds raised following the acquisition of Carmen Street site with detailed planning consent for 206 homes

· Telford Homes well placed to cement its position as one of London's leading developers

Much better results than expected, specially profit after tax and EPS due to less tax paid
Pretax profit has double but EPS was 122% up

Interim ............................ 2015 --- 2014
Profit after income tax.. £16,821M - £7,445M + 125%
Earnings per share: Basic.... 28.0p - 12.6p + 122%

-------------------------
edited 7 dec
I.C. - 2 December 15

Telford expects to double output in five years
TIP UPDATE
Telford Homes PLC (TEF)
VALUE
MEDIUM RISK

Our previous tip
We said - Buy
When - 22 April 2010
PRICE - 101p
TIP PERFORMANCE TO DATE+285%
The bears in the housebuilding sector will struggle to find much to support their scepticism in interim figures from east London focused Telford Homes (TEF). Turnover, profits and earnings per share all more than doubled in the six months to September, and there is no sign of the insatiable demand for properties close to central London abating.

Telford's secured forward order book of over £700m is more than four times total revenue reported in the year to March 2015. The order book also helps to boost cash flow, because Telford takes a 10 per cent deposit on each sale, followed by a further 10 per cent a year later when exchange of contracts takes place more than two years ahead of completion.

Chief executive John Di-Stefano pointed out that sales price inflation had slowed to around 5 per cent, as had build cost inflation - both pointing towards a more sustainable trend. On the recent imposition of extra stamp duty on buy-to-let investors, who buy about half of Telford's homes, Mr Di-Stefano suggested that strong tenant demand is likely to sustain demand from investors, too. He also hinted that institutional investors, who are likely to be exempt from the extra tax, may become more important to Telford.

Analysts at Peel Hunt expect full-year adjusted pre-tax profit of £30.5m and EPS of 36.5p (from £25.1m and 32.6p in FY2015).

TELFORD HOMES (TEF)
ORD PRICE: 388.5p MARKET VALUE: £290m
TOUCH: 387.25-389p 12-MONTH HIGH: 495p LOW: 337p
DIVIDEND YIELD: 3.2% PE RATIO: 8
NET ASSET VALUE: 181p NET DEBT: 38%
Half-year to 30 Sep Turnover (£m) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2014 65 9.4 12.6 5.1
2015 140 21.0 28.0 6.5
% change +115 +123 +122 +27
Ex-div: 10 Dec

Payment: 8 Jan

IC VIEW:
Valuing a company using net tangible assets of £322m loses some of its relevance when there is a £700m secured order book - and a £1.5bn pipeline beyond that. In common with the peer group, shares in Telford have come back from earlier highs, but are well ahead of our long-standing buy tip (101p, 22 Apr 2010). Given the highly visible growth profile, we remain bullish. Buy.

Last IC view: Buy, 412p 23 Sep 2015

Telford Homes confirms profits surge
By Lee Wild | Wed, 2nd December 2015 - 11:24

Telford Homes confirms profits surge You would think Telford Homes (TEF) is in something of a sweet spot. It builds homes in London, where affordable new homes are in short supply, and bosses said seven weeks ago that profit in the first half had more than doubled. That's just been confirmed - but Telford shares have underperformed the sector by almost 10% since a fundraising last month at a discount to the market price. That looks unfair.

Telford made a pre-tax profit of £21 million in the six months to 30 September, as an increase in completions from 140 to 282 drove revenue up 115% to £140 million. Gross profit margin of 27.6% easily beat the firm's 24% target.

Admittedly, results this year will be weighted to the first half due to the timing of completions, but house broker Peel Hunt still thinks profit will jump by a fifth in the year ending March 2016 to £30.5 million.

Telford has also recorded total forward sales of over £700 million to be recognised after March next year. Taking a 10% deposit on each sale and more on exchange of contracts is great for cash flow and funds growth.

"Given the forward sold position, the group remains well on track to meet profit expectations for the year to 31 March 2016 and beyond," it says.

Development pipeline 'beefed up'

Buying United House in September has also beefed up Telford's development pipeline, which now stands at more than £1.5 billion. Peel Hunt reckons this should support the group doubling output to over 1,000 units by 2020.

Raising £50 million from a share placing at 360p last month also provides firepower. Telford has already started spending it and promises to put all the cash to work within two years. That should help the company achieve its target of annual profit in excess of £45 million from 2019, then double 2015 profits by 2020.

Peel Hunt pencils in £50 million profit for 2020, but it could be more. "Our forecasts also prudently assume no further house-price inflation, the effects of which could provide a material boost to medium-term profits," says the broker.

"The shares offer an average yield of c4% over the next four years and our target price of 475p implies potential upside of 24%. 'Buy' recommendation maintained."

And that doesn't seem overly aggressive. Of course, planning delays are part of life for every housebuilder, and local authorities can be prickly customers. But Telford has got a grip on costs and it works in a market where demand will exceed supply for years. A forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of around 11 seems scant reward.

Robin Hardy at Shore Capital agrees, arguing that Telford is "still the stock showing the greatest value in the sector, driven by its desire to maximise growth and capitalise on market potential".

From the Guardian UK house prices set to rise further as demand outstrips supply

House prices in the UK are set to increase by between 4% and 6% in 2016, as increasing affordability problems and the prospects of an interest rate rise put the brakes on the property market, the country’s biggest mortgage lender has forecast.

Demand for property has increased in recent months, but the number of homes coming on to the market has remained at a record low. Surveyors and property websites have reported a shortage of properties for sale which is driving up prices, and described a vicious circle as potential sellers wait until there are more homes available before putting theirs on the market.

In the first 2016 forecast to be published by a major lender, Martin Ellis, Halifax’s housing economist, said there was little reason to expect this pattern to change in the year ahead. “As a result, the substantial imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist, maintaining upward pressure on house prices in 2016,” he said.

“On average, UK house prices look expensive compared to incomes but valuations are supported by the low levels of property for sale, low levels of housebuilding, and exceptionally low interest rates.”

However, Ellis said he did expect growth to fall from its current level. Halifax’s most recent monthly update of its house prices index put the average value of a UK property at £205,240 – 9.7% higher than a year earlier.

For 2016, he said national growth was likely to slow to between 4% and 6% – which at the top end would add more than £12,000 to the cost of buying – while in London the slowdown will be sharper. House price rises in the capital have already eased since the autumn of last year, when Halifax’s index was showing an annual increase of 21%. This autumn it had fallen to 13%, and Ellis said he expected growth to fall into single figures in 2016.

Ellis said the national fall would be driven by the continuing affordability crisis, which has seen prices across the UK rise the equivalent of 5.31 times average earnings, and those in London reach a new high of 7.96 times. Although mortgage rates are at record lows, buyers are having to save more for deposits in order to get a loan.

“With house prices continuing to increase more quickly than average earnings, it is increasingly difficult to get on the housing ladder,” he said. “This ongoing development, combined with the growing prospect of an interest rate rise, should start to put the brakes on house price growth during the course of 2016.”

The bank’s monthly figures are based on mortgages it agrees each month, adjusted to reflect the sale of a typical house. Increases have outstripped the 3% to 5% predicted by the lender a year ago, the result it said of interest rate rises being pushed back, the continued fall in the cost of mortgages, and weaker than expected supply.

Beyond 2016 Halifax said it expected growth to be broadly in line with earnings, which have started to pick up in recent months. But much will hinge on whether the government’s recent promises to create more homes come to fruition. “Levels of housebuilding remain well below those required to keep up with the pace of household formation, but we do expect improvements over the medium term,” said Ellis. “An upward trend in housebuilding would help to bring demand and supply into better balance, helping to constrain upward pressure on house prices.”

Halifax’s prediction for 2016 is in line with that published by the Office for Budget Responsibility. It has forecast growth of 4.8% in 2016, followed by a similar increase in 2017. However, the OBR said changes to taxes paid by landlords added uncertainty to its predictions. Next April will see a surcharge added to the stamp duty paid on second homes, a move which will affect buy-to-let landlords and could lead to a flurry of activity before the change.

The tax hike on buy to let and stamp duty on second homes plus possible interest rate rises should see more properties from the lower end come on to the market in the next couple of years and hopefully put the brakes on these runaway prices .

390.50p +10p

Since 12:30pm has started moving north and now there is a strong order book with DEPTH of 30 v 18

Talk around of TEF were out in the market with Cally Road demand from the owner occupier would be much stronger

It was Peel Hunt in their post dilution report who said Tef were 'in advanced negotiations' to sell the 156 unit Cally Road development

Good article and TEF tick a lot of boxes for the institutional investor, Excellent conduit to product for them in growth locations

Https://www.investec.co.uk/content/dam/investec/investec.co.uk/Files/property/unlocking-the-door-for-the-mid-market-private-rented-sector.pdf

needs to break 390p for the second time and BREAKOUT will be on, at the momet there is a seller on the order book @ 390p addid 5K every time is taken as "AT"

Breaking up now on good support on the order book 27 v 19

spread 391 v 392p

moneyam is behind on showing prices

not in the tread though close to 2 weeks old .........

Telford Homes takes over £80m Poplar development - published 26 Nov 2015

Telford Homes plans to start construction of a 22-storey block of flats in east London next year.

The London focused residential property developer has paid Ballymore more than £20m for the development site on Carmen Street in Poplar E14.

The site has full detailed planning consent for a 22-storey development, consisting of 206 new homes and a nursery. Ballymore, also responsible for Old Spitalfields Market, was granted planning permission by Tower Hamlets Council for the mixed-use plan in 2013.

The development is close to Langdon Park Station. Telford Homes said that it expects to start work on site in 2016 with completions anticipated in 2019 and 2020, generating £80m of revenue.

Chief executive Jon Di-Stefano said: "This acquisition represents the first significant benefit of our recent £50m placing, which provides Telford Homes with additional flexibility to take advantage of competitive market opportunities. We are constantly reviewing potential sites and having access to this capital has allowed us to move quickly to secure the Carmen Street site which has the unexpected advantage of an existing planning consent. Poplar is an area we know well, where there is strong and proven demand for our homes, and we look forward to commencing this exciting development in 2016.”

UP to 400p +4p

Next Thursday the 10th will be EX-dividend day, so just 1 & half day if interested on the 6.50p

TEF - Dividends

The interim dividend declared for the six months ended 30 September 2015 is 6.5 pence per ordinary share and is expected to be paid on 8 January 2016 to those shareholders on the register at the close of business on 11 December 2015. The ex-dividend date is therefore 10 December 2015.

Nice Dividend and 450p on the way .

on the move up today BREAKING 400p

there was an early buying trade of 43K @ 398p

Looked like a sell to me .

don't be silly, such a large amount would not be able to sell it on one go at market price, but a big discount, but buy yes and that was the reason for the rise after.

397.50 v 398.25 when the price was stablished just above middle price, but reported a few seconds later, when the share price was move up by the MM doing the deal, and that is why you think is otherwise.

There was a delayed earlier, much at the same price

09:58:05
397.955p
10,000K

note : Market Maker size are very small compare to the size mentioned
3MMs at 1.5K
2MMs at 3K
2 MMs at 5K

Close position on T+2 @ 404p and 403.15

did not want to pay for the stock and then tomorrow go down by 6.50p

#

From 'thisismoney.co.uk':
High-rise profits are on the cards for housebuilder with £1.5bn land bank
Telford Homes is a London property developer with a difference. Rather than focusing on sites in Central London and the City, it focuses on Inner London areas just outside the prime locations, where costs are lower and demand is immense.
The shares are 391p and should increase materially over the next few years.
Telford builds 600 to 700 homes a year, usually flats, but chief executive Jon Di-Stefano hopes to double that by 2020, taking advantage of a chronic shortage of affordable homes.
Such is Di-Stefano’s confidence that the company raised £50million in October via a 360p-a-share equity placing to help fund future growth.
Di-Stefano, an auditor by training, joined as finance director in 2002 and was promoted to the top in 2011. Over the years, his team has developed relationships across the capital, helping them to penetrate complex planning laws and gain permission to build. The group’s land bank is valued at £1.5billion, most of which has planning consent, and the rest is expected to obtain consent soon.
To mitigate the risks associated with holding large swathes of land, Telford forward sells properties whenever it can, and has done so with homes worth £700million.
Last month, the group revealed a more than doubling of pre-tax profits to £21million for the six months to the end of September and a 27 per cent increase in the interim dividend to 6.5p. Brokers expect full-year profits to rise by 27 per cent to £30.9million with a total dividend of 13.6p.
Midas verdict: Telford’s shares rose to more than 480p last May, after the Conservatives’ General Election victory, but they have fallen back since on concerns about the London property market. The recent placing acted as a further drag and the stock is now excellent value. Older people may be leaving London but younger generations are flooding in and Telford aims to provide the kind of housing that they need. The shares also offer a decent yield. Buy."

That explains why it's bucking the trend today. Got some catching up to do.

Telford Homes Plc
('Telford Homes' or the 'Group')

Private Rented Sector sale for £66.75 million

Telford Homes Plc (AIM: TEF), the residential property developer focused on non-prime London, is pleased to announce that it has exchanged contracts for the sale of The Pavilions, Caledonian Road, N1, to a subsidiary of L&Q, one of the UK's leading housing associations and one of London's largest residential developers.

The transaction is for the sale of all 156 homes within The Pavilions development, 96 of which will form part of L&Q's substantial and growing Private Rented Sector ('PRS') portfolio. Under the terms of the planning permission the remaining 60 homes have been sold to L&Q for affordable housing. The contracted price for the entire development is £66.75 million with regular payments to be made by L&Q throughout the construction period. As a result the development will not require any equity or debt to be invested by Telford Homes. Construction is already underway and is expected to be complete by the middle of 2018.

The contract with L&Q marks the Group's first significant development sale in the PRS sector. There is increasing institutional demand for high quality, well located developments to be 'built for rent' and the Group has been very encouraged by the overall response to the marketing of The Pavilions. Telford Homes is already exploring a second development for sale in the sector and the Board expects that similar de-risked PRS sales to blue chip organisations will form an important part of the Group's balanced sales mix going forward.

Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented: "We are delighted to have concluded our first PRS deal with a well-established PRS provider, who are already a valued partner to the Group. The strong level of interest shown in The Pavilions by PRS investors confirms the potential of the PRS market anticipated at the time of our equity placing in November 2015. Telford Homes continues to benefit from an imbalance between demand and supply of homes in non-prime London and this transaction marks the start of a new aspect to the Group's sales mix achieving de-risked forward sales with exceptional capital returns

this has been a disappointing performer, but i shall definitely persevere as i think there is much of merit underlying

Nothing wrong with the company just the share price , patience i suppose .

Not big buys but directors topping up ..
------------------------

Director/PDMR Shareholding

The Company announces that it has been informed today that the following directors of the Company today purchased ordinary shares of 10 pence in the Company ("Ordinary Shares"):

David Holland, Non-Executive Director, purchased 10,000 Ordinary Shares at the price of 325.0 pence per share. Following this purchase, David Holland is beneficially interested in 571,444 Ordinary Shares representing approximately 0.77% of the current issued share capital and total voting rights of the Company.

David Campbell, Group Sales and Marketing Director, purchased 2,000 Ordinary Shares at the price of 323.74 pence per share. Following this purchase, David Campbell is beneficially interested in 41,796 Ordinary Shares representing approximately 0.06% of the current issued share capital and total voting rights of the Company.

Still following after getting stopped out but looks like it's more likely to test below £3 before any support. Also think with London focus Brexit worries aren't helping. Some director confidence however.

More director buying .
--------------

TELFORD HOMES PLC
(the "Company")


Director/PDMR Shareholding

The Company announces that it has been informed today that James Furlong, Land Director, has today purchased 20,000 ordinary shares of 10 pence in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at the price of 332.5 pence per share. Following this purchase, James Furlong is beneficially interested in 1,334,342 Ordinary Shares representing approximately 1.79% of the current issued share capital and total voting rights of the Company.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5228446

Not holding at the moment.......

Will London’s Sky-High Real Estate Prices Send Telford Homes Plc Soaring?
By Motley Fool | Mon, 4th April 2016 - 08:40

Shares in London home builder Telford Homes (LSE:TEF) have risen 337% over the past five years on the back of the buoyant (some would say overheating) capital property market. Yet the shares look cheap at 9 times forward earnings with a whopping 3.9% yielding dividend on offer. Have City analysts missed a stellar small cap, or is there disaster on the way for Telford?

Focusing on non-prime London locations where prices are more reasonable, and thus more sustainable in the long term, has been a solid play for Telford. Through organic growth and acquisitions the company has built up a £1.5bn development pipeline with forward sales of £700m. Charging up to 20% of the price of a home in deposits and other fees means that the company has freed up significant cash flow years before developments are even completed.

A laser focus on costs has also brought gross margins up to 27.6%, above internal long-term goals and ahead of larger competitors. However, there are some clouds on the horizon. Net debt at the last reporting period was £50.4m, representing a gearing ratio of 37.3%. This is significantly more debt than larger homebuilders have piled on, having learned the lesson during the lean years that high leverage and low demand is a bad combination.

If London housing prices go south, gearing of 37% would be a scary sight for management and shareholders alike. I may be overly cautious, but high debt levels and relying on housing prices continuing to defy gravity makes me wary of Telford's ability to continue performing as well as it has. While the company has built up a strong portfolio and relatively lean operations, housing prices will come down eventually and Telford is far too tied to them to make me consider investing in the homebuilder at this point in the cycle.

An old post back end of January 2016

TEF gets a mention in this LSE article

Some thoughts on Builders

There seems to be general agreement that there is currently a shortfall of about 1 million homes in the UK. With some estimates being quite a bit higher. Whilst politicians like to talk a lot about the situation it seems very unlikely that it is going to be solved any time soon. The two solutions being a massive change in the supply side, essentially only achieved by a move to virtually unregulated building, or some form of nationalised building plan. Or a change in the demand side caused most likely by an economic disaster removing the need for housing as people either do not/ cannot afford to move out of their parents home, or of such a nature that mass emigration occurs freeing up the current housing stock.

Given neither of the two options are very likely it seems that housebuilders are likely to be in a reasonably strong market for the next 3 - 5 years and probably beyond.

Now this has been in part reflected in the share price rises that builders have undergone over the last three years, but this does not mean that there is not more to be gained if you pick the right builder.

The reality is that prices usually move incrementally from where they are. By this I mean that if a share is priced at X today it is likely to move + or - from X tomorrow. Few people wake up and fundamentally reappraise a price each day. We have seen this with oil prices in the last year. Realistically nothing that is moving the oil price at $30 was not known at $80. But it has taken months to get where it is not because new news has occurred, but because human nature and the fact that we largely start from yesterdays number means that it had to trail though $60, $50, $40 to get to $30.

Using info from Sharepad I have created the following chart, which covers most of my favourite metrics. Particularly those I use when looking at an asset backed business.



Before making any investment I get the accounts of the company and check the information / ratios myself, but I am happy to use the information prepared by Shared or indeed other sources as it helps me screen for the companies I want to look deeper at. I work for a living so have not devoted time to analysing each company separately. Instead when I do a table like this I look for companies which might have significant additional value. And this can be found by looking for those companies whose ratios do not fit into the generality of their peers.

At this point it is only wise to put a huge note of caution. Most usually when a company has significantly different ratios from its peers it does so because it’s in a highly anomalous situation. Its either the best and everyone knows it, so it is expensive or its a dog and best avoided. Different and good are not one and the same.

Going through each individually;

Barratt; To my mind its pretty middle of the pack. On the presumption that housebuilding as a sector still has legs it should go with the sector. But there is little to commend it relative to its peers.

Bellway; To my mind Bellway is interesting. Its PE*PEG is only 5.9 and the lower this ratio the better. Its ROCE is over 20 and that is a nice (20) number to beat. Price to NTAV is sensible to its peers and the Yield* Dividend Cover is better than most. (For this ratio higher is better). Full disclosure one of my children has picked Bellway for their portfolio.

Berkley; This looks interesting. EPV is more than 10% over Mkt Cap. PE*PEG is only 3.4. ROCE is 31.8. The niggles are the price to NTAV is relatively high. I don’t buy buy much over 3 on this metric. Though a number of my long term buy and holds have grown to be above this. Yield*Div Cover is also a smudge low relative to its peers. That said I intend to do further work on Berkeley as it does look interesting.

Bovis; Given what else is available in the list it does not look particularly special. Probably better value elsewhere.

Crest Nicholson; Again its not a bad company, just not that exciting on a relative comparison to what else is available.

Galliford Try; Relatively speaking GFRD looks distinctly uninspiring. A poor PE*PEG comparative. A poor ROCE comparative and expensive on Price to NTAV. Which is one reason why you should not rely on a basic comparator but do further work on anything you may actually put your money into. I have been an on / off investor in GFRD over the last 15 years and it has historically proven to be a good investment. It is as much an engineering business as a builder and the management team are well regarded by their engineering clients. So not an investment for me today, in the terms of this exercise. But not a company I would condemn anyone for investing in.

Inland; For the purposes of this comparison its clear to see that Inland hits the jackpot. I have therefore done some further work which is covered below.

McCarthy; From the chart above McCarthy is not one to look at further. However I would point out that McCarthy has only recently come to market. IPO in November 2015 if I recall correctly. It has been in public hands before and I was a very happy investor before it was taken private. It sells into the sheltered housing market and its actual results over the next year or so can be expected to significantly change its comparative results. But without them to review not one for today.

Persimmon; Persimmon is a little bit strange. Its EPV is less than its Market cap. Its Price to NTAV is too high, but it has a great Yield*Dividend Cover. A few years ago Persimmon made a commitment to radically reforming its capital structure and to pay out its excess capital as dividends to shareholders. This it has been doing and I have been a shareholder throughout. The comparison above is why I will not be adding to my PSN position but the strong dividend is why I will not be currently selling.

Taylor Wimpey; Like PSN Taylor Wimpey has an EPV lower than Market Cap. None of its other ratios are very exciting. Though the interest cover suggests that there is some possible capital restructuring options that could be taken by management. Not a company I would avoid, but not one I feel the need to look further at.

Telford; There are a lot of people who like Telford Homes a lot. They are very London focussed and if London property continues to boom they should do well. That said I am personally not that excited by the ratios.

Some further thoughts on Inland.

Inland Homes was set up by Stephen Wicks. He had previously set up and run Country & Metropolitan plc which listed in 1999 at a Market Cap of circa £7million and was sold in 2005 for £72 million.

He then set up Inland Homes with a core team from Country & Metropolitan. They were however not intended to be a builder. When initially listed the thesis was very much that the real earnings of C&M had come from getting planning permission for land and not from building. Inland was therefore not going to be a builder but a land developer. Once planning consent had been won on a site it would then be sold to a builder for the development.

IMHO this met with only limited success. It turned out that the larger builders did not need Inland as much as Inland needed the larger builders. They had their own teams to find and consent land and their need for additional sites was set either by internal replenishment targets or for a number of years severally curtailed by the financial crisis.

This encouraged - forced Inland to extend its range of operations and to begin building in its own right.

Inland remains a minnow in this arena. As a consequence there is a real risk that revenue will be volatile. The larger players are bringing on hundreds of developments, Inland has a couple of dozen and a couple of key revenue generators within that. One major problem on a key site and the numbers will be impacted,

The company is small so there is a limited base of professional investors. (Only Henderson Global Investors has a holding over 3%). This means that there is limited trading in the shares and they can be very volatile on limited news. The spread can also widen and close as the broker sees fit, rather than to reflect any underlying factor.

That said business is currently going well and Inland has proven themselves capable of finding, consenting, developing and selling sites.

Compared to its peers Inland is lowly rated against the real results that it is delivering. The problem for Inland is getting the attention of the larger investors who could help it become rated more closely to its peers. Its market cap is currently just too small for many funds and there is no specific catalyst that would cause it to rerate any time soon. However given the delivery is currently real and management have in the past delivered shareholder value there does seem to be a limited downside with decent upside potential. I also note that management have significant positions in the business and they are not getting any younger so have an interest in delivering a catalyst event. I also do believe that over time the rating should close in part as Inland continues to validate the building and sales side of the operation.

I have therefore initiated a position in Inland with a DCF valuation £215m - £255m. With a possible break to the upside.

http://www.lsesharetalk.com/investmentreports/some-thoughts-on-builders.php

i think there's an awful lot right about this company, even though sp has performed poorly of late

i have a holding in my sipp and intend to hang on to it

I hold too ,shame they can't limp back over £4 ,good divi though .

SOMEONE HAS BEEN ( READING )MY POST DESPITE SAYING >>>>> I am Squelch

More lies from you know who

Telford Homes - TEF
London calling - By Motley Fool | Thu, 7th April 2016 - 09:20

The big housebuilders are often in the news, but we don't hear so much about Telford Homes (LSE:TEF), which specialises in non-prime locations in London. Fears of overheating of prices in the capital have led to a 32% share price fall since last May's peak, to 333p, but we're still looking at a quadrupling over the past five years.

But what interests me here is the company's strongly rising dividend, which has been growing well ahead of inflation -- and there are further inflation-busting increases forecast for this year and the next two. In terms of yield, we'd be seeing 4.1% for this year, rising to 4.8% by March 2018, with cover by earnings comfortably in excess of 2.5 times.

The risk is that if the feared London slowdown should happen, Telford's relatively high debt, of £50.4m at 30 September, could start to hurt. But with a significant portion of its forward sales already secured by deposits, the dividend income might still be safe. I'm cautious on this one.

House builders are not at the moment on the menu and for some time now.........

MARKET REPORT
FTSE dips as house builders fall, miners rise

London equities were sideways with a slight negative bias to midday, falling house builders providing blue-chip ballast.
Berkeley (BDEV) shed 2.67% to 3040.p, and was followed by Taylor Wimpey (TW.), lower 1.85% to 182.75p. Also down were Persimmon (PSN) and Barratt Developments (BDEV). Commercial property was guided by Hammerson (HMSO), off 0.47% to 587.25p, but was off the overall pace.

Except this one which is the only house builder up on my list .

TEF sees FY pretax profit slightly ahead of views

StockMarketWire.com

Telford Homes anticipates its FY 2016 pretax profit will be slightly ahead of current market expectations.

"The Group was already over 90 per cent forward sold at the start of the financial year but has improved on original forecasts due primarily to initial profit recognition on the PRS sale announced in February 2016," the company said.

HIGHLIGHTS:

� Market remains strong for typical Telford Homes product from UK investors, overseas investors and owner-occupiers

� Successful launch of The Liberty Building, E14 selling 68 of the 105 open market apartments in the last four weeks with a combined sales value of over �40 million

� More than 50% of the cumulative revenue expected in the next three financial years up to 31 March 2019 has already been secured through forward sales

� First Private Rented Sector ("PRS") development contracted with L&Q for �66.75 million

� Terms agreed on a second PRS transaction with significant potential for more over the next few years

� Development pipeline as at 31 March 2016 of over �1.5 billion of future revenue

� Many opportunities continue to be appraised and negotiated to further strengthen the development pipeline, utilising the �50 million placing funds raised in October 2015

� Longer term growth expectations have increased during the year with profit before tax now forecast to exceed �50 million in the year to 31 March 2019.

13 Apr Peel Hunt 475.00 Buy

22 Apr Canaccord... 400.00 Hold

Are house prices ready to move lower?
“The month-on-month fall in the average house price is not a surprise as the market is gearing up for a change.”


The TELEGRAPH - Anna White, head of property - 28 APRIL 2016 • 12:09PM

House prices fall almost everywhere as property market takes on 'uncomfortable' feel

For sale signs
New data from the Land Registry shows house prices falling in March across the majority of regions

House prices in all the regions in England and Wales apart from London and the East fell in March, according to new data from the Land Registry.

Considered by industry experts to be the most accurate of all the house price indices, fresh figures showed that property values edged down across the country, even in the high-demand South East.

Where prices have fallen

Overall house prices in England and Wales fell 0.5pc in March, taking the average paid price to £189,901. The biggest drop was in Yorkshire and Humberside (-2.6pc).

Values dipped 2pc in the West Midlands and 1.2pc in the North East.

The potent cocktail of a growing population and a lack of stock continued to push London prices up in the mainstream market, negating the 10pc price falls at the luxury end of the sector. House prices in the capital inched up 0.2pc to £534,785. Homeowners in the East of the country saw the same rise in February.

"Why I am troubled"
While monthly fluctuations, especially in a dreary March, are to be expected, these numbers could also come as a precursor to a period of significant uncertainty in the housing market.

"I have worked through three property recessions and this has an uncomfortable yet familiar feel. I think the market is on the turn," said independent buyer and industry commentator Henry Pryor . ............

house-prices-fall-almost-everywhere-as-property-market-takes-on

yes, the property market is exceedingly difficult at the moment, and there's little doubt that the luxury end is suffering more than most

however, i think TEF is positioned correctly ...... and ditto BVS and to a lesser extent TW. ..... not sure about BDEV as it's not one i follow

Today is a falling knife 319p -10p, compare with the rest and piers of only a couple pence lower, as support at 324p is broken.

As house builders share price has been moving lower for the last few months
Is the share price tells you something or is the negative news about buyers? .....

New buyers deserted housing market in April, says Rics
BBC - By Brian Milligan - Personal Finance reporter - 12 May 2016

The number of people interested in buying a house in April fell to its lowest level for nearly eight years, according to surveyors across the UK.
Those who saw a drop in enquiries last month outnumbered those who saw a rise by 22%.
That is the highest figure reported by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) since August 2008.
Rics said the main reason was the stamp duty rise on 1 April, and the uncertainty around the EU referendum.

The number of new enquiries fell most dramatically in London, but also fell in nine other regions of the UK.
Enquiries rose only in East Anglia, the North and Scotland.
Most surveyors also reported a fall in new instructions to sell, and most expect prices to rise over the next three months.
Rics chief economist Simon Rubinsohn said the market was characterised by uncertainty.

"More ominous is the expectation that both prices and rents will head materially higher over the medium term," he said.
Earlier this week the Halifax reported that annual house price inflation fell from 10.1% in March to 9.2% in April.

Bought in earlier as the TW. update and house prices still rising could be good for results and statement by the start of the month, results 1 June

Plus there is a good divi here.

House prices hit record highs - but could this be a 'last hurrah'?

How long can house prices keep rising?
TELEGRAPH - Isabelle Fraser - 17 MAY 2016 • 10:33AM

House prices jumped in March, fuelled by a buy-to-let surge that sparked huge increases in London and the south east – but experts have warned this might be the last rise for some time.

The UK’s average house price grew by 9pc in March, from 7.6pc in February - the highest rate since the same month last year. Prices fell dramatically in Scotland, by 6.1pc compared to the same month last year, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.

Average house prices in seven of the nine English regions are at record levels, with the price in London up 2.2pc on its previous record in January.

This growth means house prices have risen more than five times faster than wages in the last five years, according to analysis by the Resolution Foundation.

The problem is even more acute in London, where house prices have risen by 57pc in five years, but average weekly earning have actually fallen slightly during the same period.

The ONS said that high levels of house price growth in March were most likely due to investors bringing forward purchases before stamp duty on buy-to-let properties was hiked by 3pc. HMRC said that housing transactions surged by 70pc in March from a year ago.

“This is likely to be the last big rise for a while as more realism enters the market, although a shortage of listings and low transaction levels may underpin house price increases in future," said Jeremy Leaf, a former Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors chairman and north London estate agent.

House prices are still increasing annually at a rate that sits well above any rise in average earnings, making our housing market even less affordable as each month goes by Jeremy Duncombe, Legal & General’s Mortgage Club

“Lack of supply continues to be a huge concern, and while the ONS takes some comfort from recent UK construction output figures which showed that house building was the bright spot for the industry in the first quarter, this is potentially a last hurrah as confidence is likely to dip in response to weakening activity."

Rics last week reported a fall in the number of new buyer inquiries in April, to the lowest level since 2008. Home hunters were put off by uncertainty surrounding the referendum on EU membership and affordability concerns, according to Rics.

Mr Leaf added: “People are nervous: there are short-term concerns about the market but longer-term fears about the strength of the economy. Brexit is a bit of a smokescreen - the strength of the economy is a bigger issue.

“While in the suburbs and outside the centre of London the housing industry is still confident, in the centre of London where there is oversupply and a lot of cranes, they are not.”

The top quarter of London's housing market saw an annual fall of 2.4pc, according to estate agency Stirling Ackroyd, but it said that a slowdown was a "myth" for the majority of London.

The buy-to-let industry by numbersPlay! 01:13
Andrew Bridges, managing director, said the London property market was "undergoing a serious readjustment".

Richard Snook, economist at PwC, said: "There are no signs of any Brexit-related slowdown in this month’s figures, although the underlying trends are masked by the effects of the stamp duty change.”

The Council for Mortgage Lenders revealed that house purchase lending was up 60pc in March compared to the same month last year. This was due largely to the rush to beat the stamp duty increase, but there was a boom in home movers securing mortgages as well.

Jeremy Duncombe, the director of Legal & General’s Mortgage Club, said: “Given that these figures cover the period leading up to the buy-to-let stamp duty rise, it’s no surprise that they show another strong monthly increase in house prices.

“However, even without this surge in buy-to-let activity, house prices are still increasing annually at a rate that sits well above any rise in average earnings, making our housing market even less affordable as each month goes by."

House prices hit record highs - but could this be a 'last hurrah'?

no, and certainly not at the level and locations where TEF build houses

Last week note from Cenkos

Market Report: Housebuilders sink on bearish broker note -

The housebuilding sector came under fire as broker Cenkos pointed to a cocktail of cracks in London’s premium-end housing market.

As concerns over the capital’s high-end market deepens, Cenkos issued a bearish broker note, downgrading housebuilders Berkeley Group, Telford Homes and Taylor Wimpey. Analysts said the changes to stamp duty, the imposition of the 3pc levy on buy-to-let and second homes in April, masked the problem sector-wide and encouraged “a bonanza of beat-the-deadline transactions” in the first quarter.

Additionally, with increasing global socio-political risks and stretched affordability, Kevin Cammack, of Cenkos, said: “The back-drop to a reversal is set in place.” Around 50pc of demand for London’s higher-value housing market comes from overseas, and the looming threat of a Brexit ahead of the referendum on June 23 have stoked fears about demand in the UK’s capital city.

Mr Cammack also said the city’s mayoral election, which saw Sadiq Khan claim the post last week, could also lead to a period of “uncertainty and change in policy directive”. With build cost inflation in London 3pc higher than the national average, Cenkos believes a stagnation in prices will “start to impact completion margins from 2017 onwards”.

Shares in Taylor Wimpey tumbled to the bottom of the blue chip index in its wake, down 2pc to 180.3p, while Berkeley Group dropped 1.4pc to £29.43 and Telford Homes slipped 0.3pc to 318.8p.
HTTP://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/10/ftse-100-bounces-back-on-steady-chinese-inflation-data/

candlesticks has given a bullish pattern........

Last Pattern:BULLISH PIERCING LINE

Pattern Description
This is a bottom reversal pattern with two candlesticks. A black candlestick appears on the first day while a downtrend is in progress.

A very good view and important factors of this note from Shore capital report. Near full extract from executive summary of Nov 16,

" Telford Homes has raised £50m of new capital that will be used to expand, accelerate and prolong growth. The capital base is expanded and with continuing confidence in Telford’s local markets in London, we see greatly enhanced prospects. The development pipeline already extends out to FY2024F and contains up to £1.5bn of gross development value (GDV), 6.5x current year revenue, and via the new funds we expect the pipeline to expand further from FY2017F. This, along with close to £700m of forward sales, gives Telford by far the greatest earnings visibility in the sector. Coupling the now substantial capital base with still strong market opportunities for securing new sites and continued strong buyer demand, we see great value here with fair value still at 490p. The rating shows an FY2019F PER of 7.5x and P/NAV of 1.14x meaning this stock presents material upside in a sector otherwise struggling to show any.

Long visibility, sustainable growth and FY2017F forecasts raised: The pipeline of sites to bring through to development already stands at c.£1.5bn, having been boosted by c.£500m via the £23m United House acquisition. Now that £50m of additional resource is available to the group, we can see this expanding even further as Telford looks to identify sites within the next 12 months and to commit the new capital fully within two years.

A still bullish market climate in Telford’s London: The media seeks to portray high risk in London residential but we still see great opportunity for developers in more affordable areas. Demand still heavily outweighs supply,

Widening the sales channel while also de-risking: Telford has opened a new sales channel: the institutionally funded private rental sector (IPRS). We see this becoming an important part of the London housing market, helping to bridge the supply gap; it is good for a developer to align with this new market segment, in our view.

Raising growth capital – old school but the right call: While the volume house builders are reducing capital by making large returns to shareholders, raising equity capital for expansion is a long-established sector trend. For Telford, we believe it is the right call for the Board to have made at this point in the market.

Still an under-valued stock: We have historically valued Telford on the same basis as the volume national builders but this increasingly feels wrong. We see unparalleled visibility, a clear long-term strategy, a solid focus on growth and, in our view, still highly favourable local market dynamics. We still see fair value here at 490p and believe that the stock is under-valued on both earnings and NAV bases in a sector that otherwise appears stretched. "

After a shaky start is now looking like is ready for business and up by 5p
with support prices at bid side as well as MMs upping their prices not only the order book placed orders.
order book medium strong, depth 20 V 16

The bounce is on as the shares keep moving forward now by 10p
order book still positive DEPTH of 20 v 17

posts 151, 157 and others not so dumb after all it would seem

Moving back up nicely , do you hold cynic ?

sure do boss ...... in my sipp as they have been for a little while

How they have performed during the last month
TEF with today's large rise is moving up the from being the worse performer

the reason of being weak before that date...........

LIONTRUST

sold up to 17th May 145K
gone under 5%
now 3,633,943 - 4.855%

mood changing? ...........

https://www.theguardian.com/business/marketforceslive/2016/may/18/housebuilders-gain-more-ground-after-taylor-wimpey-update

TW's assertion that they can pay silly divis even through a downturn has finally woken up a few investors who had assumed at the first whiff of downturn the builders would pull in their horns. IN short the sector is doing very well and can weather a modest downturn without adjustment of divi payments. Safety margins are in place for the sector unlike 2008.

If you recall TW went zero divi for years and did a big share dilution in the crisis and has been playing it safe alongside all the major builders ever since. That is why there is such a large market opportunity for a nimble aggressive player like TEF in East London.

I'm afraid TEF's dilution even though it was strategic spooked the market short term as the sector spooked the market in 2009 with the emergency fund raising dilutions from the majors. Gave placements in the sector a tainted feel to them that has not entirely evaporated. As Keynes would say "animal spirits" not necessarily logical evidence based investing.

this afternoon is having another go and moving over last Wednesday intraday high

currently bid 346.25 Ask: 347.00 Change: +9.00 (+2.66%)

Another good day for TEF.

another good day once it kept going allway takes a bit of time at the start of the day

351.00p Change: +7.25 (+2.11%)

always happy to see a positive day here, but volume is pathetic = <100k

and yet a higher UT 353p

16:35:22
353.00p
9,105

Telford Homes has exchanged contracts for the sale of its Carmen Street, London, property to M&G Real Estate for net consideration of GBP63.2 million.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5350670

Doing well again today.

FEVR aren't too shabby either :-)

I have both

Great results this morning plus increased Divi is why this has not fallen as much as other house builders

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5366255

Not a fan of tower blocks. Spent most of the 70,s and 80's gettıng rid of them only to go back to ıt.

yup - only down 15%!!

Odd that no-one thinks it was Director-Selling what done it?

Surely the "New Government" will have to get to grips with housing - OK that may mean building "Affordable Homes"
+((er, what does that mean....something under 10x Average wage for the Region? - that's £250k! )).
Cheaper homes coming on the Market could reduce the best-price Telford may achieve, but if "Planning" is relaxed - they can build more....

If immigration is eventually brought under control, the theory is that there will be over supply in the market. It will obviously take a while but the house builders have immediately been hit on that assumption, I think. Also, there is possibly going to be a move of foreign residents (pricipally in London) to other centres when some companies decide to relocate to Euro friendly cities.

thanks harry ....... an awful lot of unknowns still to be discovered

Only house builder up today.

StockMarketWire.com
Telford Homes said despite the non-binding outcome of the referendum it firmly believes in the longer-term merits of building homes in London.

"There remains a chronic shortage of supply and that will not change as a result of (the UK) leaving the EU," the company said.

"The Board also believes that London will not lose its attraction both as an international centre of finance or as a place where people want to live and work."

Telford Homes has a strong development pipeline and is in a robust financial position with cash resources available for future investment.

"As a result, the group will be able to take advantage of any opportunities created by current conditions balancing short term caution with continuing to plan for the longer term growth of the business."

In recent months Telford Homes has continued to build a substantial forward sold position, including £130 million from two Private Rented Sector (PRS) contracts, and successfully raised £50 million of new equity.

As a result the Group could not be in a stronger financial position to manage the impact of market uncertainty following the outcome of the EU referendum.

Total forward sales now exceed £640 million and, as reported on 1 June 2016 in the Final Results, the Group has already secured over 50 per cent of the cumulative revenue expected in the three financial years up to 31 March 2019.

This forward sold position has been boosted by the PRS sales of The Pavilions, N1, sold to a subsidiary of L&Q in February 2016 and Carmen Street, E14, sold to M&G Real Estate in May 2016.

As a result of these sales the £50 million placing funds raised in 2015 are largely uncommitted and in addition the Group has significant headroom in its secured £180 million revolving credit facility extending into 2019.

Non-binding outcome - entering the field of politics are we now Telford

The rest of the world's accepted the outcome - which includes that EU muppet Junker as well - get over it

technically they are correct, but practice (reality) is otherwise

There was no need to use the words 'non-binding'

Clearly it's a case of getting their excuses in early should results disappoint - cue 'it was because of Brexit'

Recent results were excellent with an increased divi .

Do not forget market is always looking ahead and 6 month better than 3........

MAIN NEWS OF THE DAY
House prices fell by 0.9% in June following Brexit, which was a bigger decline than expected.
--------------

% rise compare - BDEV, CRST, RDW, TW.

--------------------------------- 1 month -------------------------------------------------------- 3 month ------------------------------

We are due a house market wobble i have been saying this for a year ,prices are mad .

Central London house prices show biggest fall in 7 years after Brexit
Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 11:50

LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - House prices in London's most expensive areas recorded their biggest fall in nearly seven years in July after the Brexit vote reinforced a downward trend caused by a rise in property taxes, a consultancy said on Wednesday.

Knight Frank's prime central London index fell 1.5 percent last month from a year earlier, due to the uncertainty created by the June 23 referendum and a rise in property taxes which pushed up prices and brought sales forward to the start of 2016.

"Since the vote, a number of buyers have requested discounts due to the climate of political and economic uncertainty," Head of London Residential Research Tom Bill said.

"The decision to leave the European Union has provided a backdrop of short-term uncertainty that is affecting behaviour in the prime central London property market," he said.

Prime central London stretches from Notting Hill and Knightsbridge, home to department store Harrods, in the west to the City of London and Islington towards the north and east.

In Knightsbridge, prices fell 7.3 percent last month, the biggest drop of any of the 15 areas examined whilst the biggest rise was 5.3 percent in the City of London.

Property prices in the capital's most desirable areas began recording annual declines in the run-up to the vote, according to Knight Frank, but July's fall is the biggest since October 2009, when Britain began recovering from the 2007-8 financial crisis.

But Knight Frank said that the primary reason for the decline remained changes to stamp duty, a property tax, which raised the amount paid on the most expensive properties and on second homes and buy-to-let investments, key to the central London market.

Commercial property took the biggest hit in the wake of the EU referendum with investors pulling out money from funds, forcing some to be suspended.

But there have been warnings in recent weeks from housebuilders and estate agents that residential property prices and demand could suffer.

Britain's biggest housebuilder, Barratt Developments , said last month that it might slow the pace of construction to prepare itself for an expected slowdown. London-focussed estate agent Foxtons blamed Brexit for its slump in profits.

Knight Frank said rental values last month fell 3.6 percent in London, a city where many young professionals cannot afford to buy their own homes due to high property prices.

The number of prospective tenants fell 6.8 percent year-on-year in the three months to the end of June, impacted by the vote, it said.

This may not be as bad for Telford as it is in central London ,Telford build cheaper more affordable homes (half million pounds) which is not so much in the high end .

Soon be making the sound of a pound.

With the interest cuts just announced to 0.25%, the ones to benefit most would be stocks with plenty of borrowing.
Is TEF is one of them?

Borrowings
In March 2015 the Group secured a new revolving credit facility for £180 million which was increased from £120 million. This new facility runs until March 2019 and allows the Group to be much more flexible in its approach to site acquisitions. It is governed by standard corporate covenants together with site covenants on a portfolio basis. During the year the Group has benefited from a significantly reduced rate of interest compared to the previous facility as the rate is determined by the Group's gearing which has remained low throughout the year. The margin payable on the facility can vary from 2.8 per cent to 4 per cent dependent on gearing.

During the year the Board took advantage of favourable market conditions on longer term interest rate hedge products and entered into an interest rate swap on a proportion of its future anticipated drawn debt. This has reduced the Group's exposure to interest rate increases and will become effective from 1 October 2016 expiring on 4 March 2019. The swap initially secures the interest rate the Group will pay on £50 million of debt increasing to £100 million from 4 June 2017 as the Group's debt utilisation is expected to increase over this period.

As at 31 March 2016 the Group had utilised £40 million of the facility (31 March 2015: £95 million) leaving £140 million of headroom for investment in the existing and future development pipeline. Gearing has reduced to 9.3 per cent (2015: 43.9 per cent) although this is expected to increase in future years as the Group utilises more of the facility. The headroom in the facility along with the increased equity due to the placing means the Group is in a very strong financial position to enable the significant growth expected over the next few years.

ST of IC today - So, ahead of a pre-close trading update in mid-October, I rate Telford’s shares a buy on a bid-offer spraed of 289p to 289.5p and have a target price of 370p. Buy.

Ouch director selling after last week rise and another 10p today.....

Telford Homes Land Director Sells Shares

LONDON (Alliance News) - Housebuilder Telford Homes PLC on Tuesday said Land Director James Furlong sold 48,917 shares at a price of 320 pence per share on Friday.

He holds about 1.3 million shares, a 48,000 sale is peanuts. Only purchased the 48,000 a month before. Just a quick profit.

Jim Furlong 1,314,342 2.18%



Why-builders are a good-bet post Brexit-Ultra-low-mortgage-rates-help-Britons-looking-buy-home.html

Midday Market report

Housebuilders including Taylor Wimpey and Berkeley were lower after new housing minister Gavin Barwell gave a strong indication of a material shifting in housing policy, hinting that controversial Starter Homes scheme will be scrapped and the government will pursue policies to expand the public sector and private sector rental markets.

Analyst Robin Hardy at Shore Capital, who pointed out that housebuilders instead used the various government stimulus measures to create a golden trading environment with substantial benefits for margins, returns, cash flow and dividends, said the new policy direction "likely to see a change in the dynamics of the house builders' profitability especially if there is any adjustment to the scope and scale of Help-to-Buy".

12 October:
Trading Update

30 November:
Interim Results for 6 months ended 30 September 2016
 
 
2017
 
6 January:
Interim dividend payment date

12 April:
Trading update

31 May:
Final results for 12 months ended 31 March 2017

4 Oct
Canaccord...
290.00
Hold

Trading Update
RNS
RNS Number : 2721M
Telford Homes PLC
12 October 2016
 
 
For Immediate Release
12 October 2016
 
Telford Homes Plc
('Telford Homes' or the 'Group')
 
Trading Update
 
Telford Homes Plc (AIM:TEF), the residential property developer focused on non-prime London, is pleased to provide the following update on trading ahead of its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2016 ('H1 2017' or the 'period'), which will be released on Wednesday, 30 November 2016.
 
Highlights
·      Long term imbalance between the supply of homes and the demand for somewhere to live in non-prime areas of London underpins future prospects for Telford Homes
·      Strong forward sold position now exceeding £650 million of revenue to be recognised from the year to 31 March 2017 onwards
·      Increasing sales activity in respect of residual availability over the last six weeks
·      Next significant sales launch will be City North, N4 in November 2016 where a £110 million loan facility was recently signed with LaSalle Residential Finance Fund
·      Second PRS sale to M&G Real Estate announced in May 2016 and a third transaction has also recently progressed to detailed discussions with a prospective purchaser
·      Increasing number of land opportunities being appraised with some sites now the subject of more detailed negotiations
·      The Board remains confident in the longer term housing market in non-prime London and has not adjusted the Group's growth targets since the outcome of the EU vote
·      H1 2017 profits in line with expectations and lower than last year due only to the timing of development completions with a substantially higher proportion of profits expected in H2 2017
·      Interim dividend to increase in accordance with anticipated full year profit growth
·      Secured 95 per cent of the open market homes anticipated to complete in the year to 31 March 2017 and 87 per cent of the gross profit expected in the year
·      Expectations for the full year to 31 March 2017 and further into the future remain unchanged and on track to deliver significant growth over the next three years
 
 
 
 
Current trading
Telford Homes continues to hold a positive view of both the current and future housing market in non-prime areas of London due to the significant imbalance between the supply of homes and demand for somewhere to live.  This imbalance underpins the future prospects for the business and as a result the Board has not revised the Group's growth targets following the outcome of the EU vote. There is a housing crisis in London with many more homes needed and the Group expects to play an increasing role in delivering those homes.
 
The Group started the current financial year with a substantial forward sold position that has subsequently been enhanced to exceed £650 million of revenue to be recognised from the year to 31 March 2017 onwards.  As a result the existing development pipeline has been significantly de-risked putting the Group in a strong position. 
 
In terms of the current market environment the Group is pleased to report that it has experienced increased sales activity in respect of residual availability across a number of developments.  Since the start of September greater interest levels and more visitors to the central sales centre have resulted in an increased number of reservations.  Particularly pleasing is that this has included the sale of three of the remaining penthouses at Horizons, E14 where the average price is over £1 million and is therefore well in excess of our usual price point.  The average anticipated price of open market homes in the Group's future pipeline is £517,000.  
 
The Group's next significant launch will be City North in Finsbury Park, a joint development with The Business Design Centre in Islington, which is planned for November 2016.  This development is now underway and the Group recently announced the successful signing of a £110 million loan facility with LaSalle Residential Investment Fund, which will fund this exciting scheme of 355 homes, 140,000 square feet of commercial and leisure space and a new entrance to the underground station.  As with previous developments, the Group expects that the product and location will be attractive to a range of buyers both at the launch and thereafter.
 
PRS (Private Rented Sector) or 'build to rent' remains a significant focus for the Group following the sale of The Pavilions, N1 to a subsidiary of L&Q and Carmen Street, E14 to M&G Real Estate.  Following these two development sales Telford Homes has recently progressed to detailed discussions on a third transaction with a prospective purchaser.  There has been a noticeable increase in institutional interest in PRS investments which complements the Group's desire to extend its involvement in the sector and to benefit from stronger returns on equity and lower gearing as a result. 
 
Telford Homes has a strong and accelerated development pipeline as a result of the purchase of the regeneration business of United House in September 2015.  The Group has resources to add to that pipeline due to the £50 million equity placing in 2015 and has been able to take a selective approach to prospective acquisitions.  An increasing number of opportunities are being appraised with some sites now the subject of more detailed negotiations.   
 
Interim results and outlook
The Group's reported profits in any given period are driven by the number of open market completions achieved and there were far fewer of these in H1 2017 than H1 2016.  This is purely down to development timings which are all on track and in accordance with the original programmes but do not always fall equally across the year.  Completions of individual properties are proceeding exactly as planned with no unexpected delays. 
 
As a result of the weighting of completions across the year pre-tax profit for H1 2017 will be lower than last year but entirely in line with expectations.  The interim dividend is proposed to increase in line with the anticipated full year profit growth and will not be affected by weighting between the two half year periods.  To date Telford Homes has secured 95 per cent of the open market homes anticipated to complete in the year to 31 March 2017 and 87 per cent of the gross profit expected in the year.  The Board's expectations for the full year to 31 March 2017 and further into the future remain unchanged and the Group is on track to deliver significant growth in both output and profits over the next three years.
 
Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented:
"We have seen a robust market place in recent weeks, with encouraging sales activity and increasing interest from institutional investors.  We are very pleased with the progress of our move into delivering schemes for the 'build to rent' sector and I am delighted that we are progressing discussions on a third transaction to add to the sales already achieved to L&Q and M&G Real Estate."
 
"The Group has made strong progress in the last six months and remains positive about the long term prospects for the housing market in non-prime areas of London. The imbalance between the supply of homes and the need for somewhere to live is not diminishing and this underpins our plans to continue to grow Telford Homes over the next few years."
 
 
 
 
- Ends -
 

There is a bounce since yesterday on the housing stocks.
The reason for the weakness on TEF must be some on the know of a slow down on sales on the 1st half.......

...... As a result of the weighting of completions across the year pre-tax profit for H1 2017 will be lower than last year

your selective extraction omitted the very important but entirely in line with expectations.

Take your pick ....

12 Oct Peel Hunt 485.00 Buy
4 Oct Canaccord... 290.00 Hold

Don't be CYNIC "cynic"

read my post before and that is the reason why.

Take an "egg on the face" if you feel better.

Do not argue with me, cuz you will always lose.

Telford Homes at bargain basement prices
By Harriet Mann | Wed, 12th October 2016 - 14:08


London-based housebuilder Telford Homes (TEF) has seen a bounce in sales following the EU referendum in another sign that the UK economy is holding up despite doomsday predictions. Investors clearly have faith in the cyclical housing sector, chasing AIM-listed Telford's high-yielding shares north Wednesday.
"We have seen a robust marketplace in recent weeks, with encouraging sales activity and increasing interest from institutional investors," said chief executive Jon Di-Stefano in an optimistic half-year update.
Results so far are in line with expectations, and only lower than last year due to the timing of development completions. A "substantially higher" proportion of profits will be posted in the second half, said Di-Stefano, who has not adjusted Telford's growth targets since the Brexit vote.
Jumping 5% to 311p, Telford shares are up 22% from their post-referendum, two-year low of 254p. Its recovery has lagged housebuilding peers, however, and the shares are still about 40p below their pre-vote levels. Di-Stefano told Interactive Investor in June that the market often struggles to understand Telford.
Decades of undersupply underpins growth, as demand in non-prime London remains strong
But Peel Hunt analyst Gavin Jago, who upgraded his price target on Telford just three weeks before the referendum, still thinks they're incredibly cheap, predicting 56% upside.
"Given the strong forward sales, solid demand for its products and increasing PRS [Private Rented Sector] opportunities, in our view, the market is significantly undervaluing this growth," says Jago. "Together with a CY 2017 yield of 5.6% we remain very comfortable with our 'buy' recommendation and 485p target price."
Decades of chronic undersupply underpins growth forecasts, as demand for homes in the non-prime areas of London remains strong.
Since September, Telford has enjoyed higher reservation numbers, including the sale of the three remaining penthouses in its East London Horizons complex, where the average price is over £1 million.

"There is a housing crisis in London with many more homes needed and the group expects to play an increasing role in delivering those homes," the group said Wednesday.
Over £650 million of revenue has already been forward sold to be recognised this financial year, up from £640 million in June, so investors are reassured that the development pipeline has been derisked, improving visibility. The average price of the open market homes in the pipeline is £517,000. More detail will be given in November's interims.
PRS builds are still a large focus for Telford after the sale of The Pavilions, N1, to a subsidiary of L&Q and Carmer Sterete, E14, to a subsidiary of M&G Real Estate. Institutional investors are clearly keen to get a slice of the action - these deals lock in long-term rental income - and PRS developments also de-risk the business for Telford.
So far, the company has secured 95% of the open market homes to be completed in the year to 31 March 2017 and 87% of the gross profit.
Next on the cards is Telford's joint development with The Business Design Centre, City North in Finsbury Park. A £110 million loan from LaSalle Residential Investment Fund will finance the project to build 355 new homes, 140,000 square feet of commercial and leisure space and a new underground entrance.
Peel Hunt expects an increase in sales from £245 million to £291 million in the year to March 2017, with adjusted pre-tax profit up from 32.2 million to £33 million. Look for £44 million profit the year after. An estimated full-year dividend of 15.7p this time gives a prospective yield of 5%.

Not sure if they will be able to get the asking price for sky scrapers over Stratford. Watching them go up and as a cockney sparrow I would not want to live there now!!

There are no cockneys left there , don't worry the foreigners will buy them .

You may be right jimmy b.

As displaced cockney I do wonder who would want to live in a glorified tower block when they spent years trying to demolish that type of skyline in East London.

Will you be surprise if I say EPS ( earnings per share will be down this YEAR 2016)
Most of the peers have increased profits by 20 and 30%, so no wonder of the underperformance of the stock........

Well Profit will be up 3% Fcast
but consider that the number of shares will be up by 13.29%

That is the reason for lower EPS on the next results

Forecast for Year 2016
adjusted pre-tax profit up from 32,2 million to £33 million.

No of shares
2015 - 66,07M
2016 - 74,85M ( after a 13,88M placing ) some added on the 2015 results (5,7M )

ST of IC today - Institutional demand for PRS growing
Another positive is that Telford is currently in discussions with a prospective purchaser for the sale of its third private rented sector (PRS) development this year. The company has already offloaded around 300 homes in its pipeline with a development value of £130m to M&G Real Estate, and a subsidiary of L&Q, one of the UK's leading housing associations and one of London's largest residential developers. These deals reflect increasing institutional demand for high-quality, well-located developments to be 'built for rent'.
There is decent financial upside from PRS sales because assuming Telford achieves close to its target operating margin of 15 per cent, it will earn huge profits on the £130m of revenue generated from the two schemes. Profits will be recognised earlier because under contract accounting standards it is based on a percentage build basis rather than on legal completion of the schemes. Furthermore, Telford has no debt finance on its PRS developments, has recouped its land costs and is fully carried on funding, so will make a higher return on capital employed that on a normal housing development. Admittedly, it forsakes net margin to secure the sale of a complete development, but it’s good business as this mitigates risk.
Frankly, with Telford’s shares priced on 8.25 times earnings estimates, rated on a 5 per cent premium to end March 2017 book value estimates and offering a forward dividend yield of 5.4 per cent, investors are pricing in a sharp reversal of house prices at the more affordable end of the London market despite the strong supply-demand dynamics of the market segment Telford is targeting. And with analysts forecasting cumulative EPS of almost 140p over the next three financial years even in a flat London market, of which over 50p a share is earmarked for dividends, this progressive earnings profile is simply not being reflected in the current valuation.
Offering more than 30 per cent share price upside to my 370p target price, I continue to rate Telford’s shares a buy.

2 value stocks with a P/E below 8 - By Rupert Hargreaves | Fool.co.uk – Tue, Oct 18, 2016

Brexit has thrown up some incredible bargains in the small-cap market. While the plunging pound has sent the FTSE 100 to yearly highs, small-cap domestic-focused equities have suffered. In some cases, the sell-off of domestic equities has been so aggressive and relentless that groups of small-caps are now trading at mid-single-digit P/Es with high-single-digit dividend yields.

It's not clear why investors have dumped these equities at such a rapid rate. Yes, there's some concern about what will happen to the UK economy when the dust settles after Brexit. But a mid-single digit P/E suggests that the market believes these companies' earnings will fall by 50% or more, which seems excessive in many cases.
Telford Homes (LSE: TEF) and Utilitywise (LSE: UTW) are two such post-Brexit bargains.

Housing crash?
Year-to-date shares in Telford are down by 27.3%. It appears that analysts and investors worried about the company's exposure to the UK's housing market, specifically in London where Telford has a significant presence. However, Telford's management doesn't appear to be worried about the state of the market, and when analysing the firm the figures speak for themselves. Indeed, Telford's forward sales stand at £640m, which is 50% of the company's expected revenues over the next three years.

With revenues for the next three years locked up, Telford at least deserves to trade at a market average multiple, but this isn't the case.
Shares in the company currently trade at a forward P/E of 8.2 ( 297.50p ), falling to 6.2 next year and support a dividend yield of 5.3%. The group's net asset value per share was just under 250p at the end of March, so after recent declines, the shares are trading at a price-to-book value of 1.2.

A defensive sector
The utility sector is considered one of the market's most defensive. Unfortunately, it looks as if the market believes provider Utilitywise can't offer the same kind of defensive proposition as the rest of its industry.
Shares in Utilitywise have lost 23% of their value year-to-date and currently trade at an extremely attractive forward P/E of 7.1 and City analysts are expecting the company to report earnings growth of 25% this year and 8% for 2017.
That being said, Utilitywise is no stranger to controversy. The company has come under scrutiny in the past for its accounting, and some analysts are worried about the firm's exposure to small businesses, which are likely to suffer more than most in any economic downturn.

When it comes to the question of Utilitywise's accounting practices, it looks as if the concerns are unfounded. One way to quickly spot if a company is inflating profits is to look at cash flows, which are harder to manipulate. For the period ending 31 July, Utilitywise reported a cash inflow from operations of £12.4m, compared to net income of £18.4m. Working capital changes accounted for the majority of the difference in the figures. Put simply; the company is generating plenty of cash and it looks as if there's nothing to be worried about.

Looking for income?
If it's dividends you're after but you're worried about the outlook for Utilitywise and Telford why not check out this special report, which gives a rundown of what I believe is one of the hottest dividend stocks in London today.

rather a nice write-up for TEF i thought

MrM won't touch them i'm sure - or at least he was distinctly less than enthusiastic about the company just a few days back
to be fair to the boy, he likes stocks which he needs to hold for <20 days, but TEF is more of a longer term investment

C

just tell us the truth ...... is a stock that you lose a lot of money

it's a stock i hold in my sipp and yes it is showing a loss, but i am happy enough to hold it for the long term ..... i like its property portfolio; it has a good divi; it looks undervalued as the article points out

I still do not like the stock, as there is no growth on the stock at the moment, negative EPS ( less earnings than last year )

Most of the House builders are at below PE than TEF and growing

just cuz there is writing about TEF does not mean I will be interested is buying at this point.

And more good news for the sector today......

UK construction sector activity firms in third quarter

(ShareCast News) - UK construction workloads lifted slightly in the third quarter, though growth in London was depressed by Brexit uncertainty, according to a survey of the sector published on Thursday.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) quarterly construction market survey found a balance of 19% of surveyors reported an increase in current construction workloads in the quarter, up from 17% in the preceding period.

Of all the subsectors, infrastructure was the most positive, with a balance of 17% reporting rising workloads.

Private housing saw the highest levels of growth compared to other construction sectors, with a balance of 27%.

The private commercial sector saw the workload balance dip marginally to 16% from 17%.

"What the figures mask, is the disparity between the kinds of properties that are being built," said Jeremy Blackburn, head of policy at the lobbying group.

"When the Communities Secretary publishes his Housing White Paper later this month, he must deliver a housing programme that benefits more than the just the fortunate few. We need to shift the rhetoric away from home ownership and encourage the building of affordable rental properties in the suburbs and our cities."

Eduardo Gorab at Capital Economics said it was worth bearing in mind that by being above zero, all of the main sectoral balances still point to rising construction activity.

"More encouragingly, the forward-looking aspects of the survey showed a more dramatic improvement. Indeed, rising to 49% from a three-year low of 23%, the future workloads balance rose above the survey average of 31%. Similarly, employment intentions and profit expectations also recovered much of Q2's losses," he added.

"Yet, at 35% and 22% in Q3, these balances are still lower than in Q1 when they stood at 41% and 38%."

He added that skill shortages are likely to continue to constrain the sector and that tighter future immigration controls may well exacerbate this problem.

i must confess there are shares i too do not like and will not buy - and they're doing very well - ie ASC and FXPO

The MAIL - By MYRA BUTTERWORTH and NICK ENOCH FOR MAILONLINE: , 21 October 2016

The best home you can build on a shoestring: Could this two-bed house that can be built for less than £50k be the answer to Britain's housing crisis?

Self Build on a Shoestring judges included Grand Design's Kevin McCloud
The low-cost 'Modulhus' starter home is priced from £49,600
It is a two bedroom home covering 66 sq m
The modules design means it can work as a standalone home, or be stacked to create a terrace or a block of flats

Most first-time buyers can only dream of buying a home for less than £50,000 - but it is possible if you're prepared to go 'modular'.
This involves selecting pre-fabricated, low-cost modules of various sizes which are then put together by skilled craftsmen.
The customer can then choose the interior design, giving an end-product which could be an office, hotel, school or house - and that includes starter homes.
The Modulhus, one such starter home, has now been crowned winner of an annual shoestring design competition.
The two-bedroom house covers 66sq m and costs from just £49,644 to build.

The 'Modulhus' - modular house - which has been crowned winner of an annual shoestring design contest has two bedrooms and costs less than £50,000 to build
Options inlcude a pitched roof module

The Modulhus can be bought as a finished product or as structure-only, allowing for a complete customisation of internal and external finishes
The timber homes, made from fully-finished factory parts, are built off-site - and eco-efficient features, such as solar thermal panels (which are used to help heat water) can be added.
And the customer can also choose the roof, be it bitumen, clay, concrete roof tiles or a tin cover.
The price of the project does not include the land that the houses are built on - something which substantially drives up the price of new homes.

Looking for a cheaper mortgage? Compare the best rates and get fee-free advice
However, easy and cheap to construct houses like the Modulhus are being touted as the way forward for new projects involving freeing up state-owned land at a low cost to get more homes built for the UK

The Modulhus - designed by architects Barton Willmore and EcoMotive - won first prize at the international Self Build on a Shoestring competition.
The judges, including TV presenters Kevin McCloud of Grand Designs, George Clarke of Amazing Spaces and Charlie Luxton of Homes by the Sea, praised the winner for its 'low-cost modules'.

TV presenter of Grand Designs Kevin McCloud was one of the judges of the Self Build on a Shoestring competition
Kevin McCloud said: 'Self-build and custom-build will be a significant part of our housebuilding mix in the future.
'That's a really exciting prospect. But for it to really take off we ought to be exploring new ways that people can build affordably and, for that matter, collectively, like they do across Europe.

'The Shoestring Competition is not just a quest to find brilliant new ideas, it's an important petri-dish for innovation in British housing, to find new ways to help get people on to the housing ladder and help develop new models of affordability.'
For self-build to really take off we ought to be exploring new ways that people can build affordably

The winning architects were presented with the £5,000 competition prize by Charlie Luxton at the Grand Designs Live exhibition at the NEC.
Mr Luxton said: 'The UK housing sector is far too focused with a few major builders producing the vast majority of our new homes.
'This small pool of supply has resulted in a lack of innovation, this competition seeks to redress this huge issue at the heart of our housing industry.
'The flexibility and adaptability of the Modulus gets to the core of why people want to self build - choice.

The modular design means it can work as a standalone home, or with several added together to create a terrace or a block of flats

'It also deals with ideas of scaleability and delivery that are key to affordability, in-line with the ambitions of this competition.'

Runners-up included projects called Half a House and The Self Build Guild - both could also be built for less than £50,000.
Former winners of the National Custom Self Build Association (NaCSBA) competition are now seeing their designs built.
They include the self-build 'Barnhaus', which was built around the idea of a farmer's hay barn and won the Self Build on a Shoestring competition in 2013.

One of this year's joint runners-up in the competition was a project called Half A House

The Self Build Guild was the other joint runner up in this year's self build on a shoestring competition

Former winners of same competition include the 'Barnhaus', based on a farmer's hay barn
The winner of the same 2015 competition was this project that could 'easily be assembled by two people'

The winner of the same 2015 competition was this project that could 'easily be assembled by two people'

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-3848174/Is-answer-Britain-s-housing-crisis-two-bedroom-home-built-50K.html#ixzz4NwTPYceY

Interims 30 Nov

Interim Results
RNS
RNS Number : 4789Q
Telford Homes PLC
30 November 2016
 
 
 
Press Release
30 November 2016
 
 
 
Telford Homes Plc
 
("Telford Homes" or the "Group")
 
Interim Results
 
Telford Homes Plc (AIM:TEF), the residential property developer focused on non-prime London, today announces its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2016 ("H1 2017").
 
Highlights
·  
Strong forward sold position exceeding £700 million of revenue to be recognised from the year to 31 March 2017 onwards (1 April 2016: £579 million)
·  
Long term imbalance between the supply of homes and demand for somewhere to live in non-prime areas of London
·  
Successful off-plan launch of City North, Finsbury Park in November 2016 selling 72 homes over three weekends for a combined value in excess of £43 million
·  
Increased opportunities in the 'build to rent' sector earning higher capital returns
·  
No changes to the Group's growth targets, profit forecasts or anticipated dividend payments as a result of the EU referendum
·  
With revenues weighted to the second half the Board is confident of meeting market expectations for pre-tax profits in the year to 31 March 2017
·  
Increased interim dividend to 7.2 pence (H1 2016: 6.5 pence) to reflect this confidence
·  
Substantial development pipeline of over £1.4 billion of future revenue
·  
Cautious approach to land investment in the last few months but a significant joint venture site in East London now being progressed and many more opportunities being appraised
·  
Gearing still historically low at 17.3 per cent (31 March 2016: 9.2 per cent)
·  
Well positioned to deliver on targets to exceed £50 million of annual pre-tax profit by 31 March 2019 and double the size of the business over the next five years
 
 
Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented:  "Telford Homes is in a very strong position with over £700 million of forward sales secured and a substantial development pipeline.  The recent launch of City North in Finsbury Park exceeded our expectations achieving over 70 sales at higher than anticipated prices and proving that the right product in the right location remains attractive to buyers."
 
"The Group is extending its involvement in the build to rent sector and expects an increasing number of opportunities to secure revenues and earn higher capital returns through forward funding arrangements with institutional investors.  Overall we are well positioned to deliver on our targets of achieving more than £50 million of annual pre-tax profit by 31 March 2019 and doubling the size of the business over the next five years."
 
- Ends -
 

30 Nov
Peel Hunt
485.00
Buy

Surprised this hasn't gone up in line with the other builders. Still good Divi .

Good to hold for the future jimmy.

My comment last month came to be true already at the interim stage

Profits, EPS and margins all lower, after the last capital raising and management is trying to avoid to mention on a clear way .............

Pretax
2016 - £9.0 million compared to
2015 - £21.0

Earnings per share: Basic
2016 - 9.9p
2015 - 28.0p

mentor - 14 Oct 2016 13:47 - 210 of 224 edit this post

Will you be surprise if I say EPS ( earnings per share will be down this YEAR 2016)
Most of the peers have increased profits by 20 and 30%, so no wonder of the underperformance of the stock........

Well Profit will be up 3% Fcast
but consider that the number of shares will be up by 13.29%

That is the reason for lower EPS on the next results

Forecast for Year 2016
adjusted pre-tax profit up from 32,2 million to £33 million.

No of shares
2015 - 66,07M
2016 - 74,85M ( after a 13,88M placing ) some added on the 2015 results (5,7M )

AGM Statement
Thu, 1st Dec 2016 07:00

RNS Number : 6282Q
Inland Homes PLC
01 December 2016
 
 
1 December 2016
Inland Homes PLC
 
('Inland Homes', 'Inland', the 'Company' or the 'Group')
 
AGM Statement
 
Inland Homes (AIM: INL), the specialist housebuilder and brownfield land developer, provides the following statement ahead of its Annual General Meeting to be held today, 1 December 2016 at 11.00am.
The Group's housebuilding programme is gaining significant momentum with a record 394 homes currently under construction across 12 sites. 54 Homes have been reserved since the start of the new financial year, which is an average of 2.5 units per week. Of particular note recently was the off-plan launch of 54 units at Meridian, Southampton where 12 units have been reserved in the first eight weeks. This scheme has consent for 351 homes to be constructed in four phases.
Adding to this, Inland Homes is pleased to announce today the receipt of planning consent for 239 units at our site, Lily's Walk in High Wycombe which is in our joint venture with CPC Group Limited.  Lily's Walk is a prime 3.5 acre site in the centre of High Wycombe, located directly opposite the Eden Shopping Centre.  
 
Since 1 July 2016, the Group has received planning consents or resolutions to grant planning consents on 373 plots and 19,000 square feet of commercial space.  We have planning applications awaiting determination for 1,746 residential units, with applications for, approximately, a further 470 residential units to be submitted very shortly.
The land bank currently stands at 7,220 plots, of which 1,415 have a planning consent or a resolution to grant planning consent. There are pre-application discussions regarding a further 1,802 plots ongoing.
As reported in the annual accounts for the year ended 30 June 2016, the timing of the construction of our sites, together with planned land sales is such that a major part of our profitability in the current financial year will be realised in the second half. The previously reported setback that was caused by the financial failure of a contractor, which resulted in the slight delay of 23 legal completions, is now virtually behind us and the momentum is gathering with a growing number of sites being constructed by our in-house build team. 
Stephen Wicks, Chief Executive at Inland Homes, commented:
"Following on from the robust set of results we announced in October, which reflected a year of significant operational and strategic progress, we are pleased to report that the momentum is continuing to escalate behind our building programme, with a record number of homes for the business under construction, underpinning the Company's growth strategy.
"The investment we have made in developing our in-house construction capability to self-deliver our homes is already producing tangible benefits and it's an area of the business that we are continuing to focus on to further increase levels of certainty on delivery, whilst reducing costs. Moreover, we are working on a number of initiatives through which we hope to be able to offer even lower cost housing in the South East, where price remains a barrier to many people owning their own home.    We look forward to providing some more detail on this is in the New Year."
               
ENDS

A buy from IC today - Shore Capital forecasts pre-tax profits of £33.2m and EPS of 35.6p for the year to March 2017 (from £32.2m and 39.1p in FY2016).

Hi dreamcatcher.
We seem to have an interest in similar stocks. Just returned from agm of Inland Homes and the Body language of the Directors said it all not to mention the facts they put out in the presentation. So have just sold all my holdings in Telford (at a small loss) and put the whole lot into Inland at 0.59. I have divi to come in Jan.
I am looking for them to go back to 0.80 in a much shorter time than Telford will get to £4.
Time will tell.

Hi Colin,
Good luck I hope Inland performs well for you. I like the management of Telford homes and their goals for the future. Not in a rush. There may be an initial drop of perhaps most builders when we brexit. So there could be good buying opportunities for builders. Will watch Inland homes with interest and may pick up a few as well. Good luck.

i agree about TEF
also like BVS, TW. and from a slightly different angle, RMV

all the above are in my sipp

:-))

13:50 02/12/2016
Broker Forecast - Canaccord Genuity issues a broker note on Telford Homes PLC
Canaccord Genuity today upgrades its investment rating on Telford Homes PLC (LON:TEF) to buy (from hold) and raised its price target to 360p (from 330p). Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

Good write up in Shares today.

Ex dividend today. Interim payed 9/1/17 - 7.20p

Yes DC all these Divi's i'll be buying a super yacht soon.

I was thinking more

In your dreams. lol

Holding(s)company above 5%

ST of IC today -So, having initiated coverage on the shares at 289p ('London property trading play', 22 Aug 2016), and reiterated that advice at 284p in the autumn (‘Value plays’, 18 Oct 2016), I feel that there is material short-term upside at the current price of 319p. In fact, a return to the pre-Brexit summer highs around 381p is a definite possibility in my view, so much so that I have edged up my price target from 370p to 380p to coincide with the pre-Brexit summer highs at the start of June. Strong buy.

Third Build to Rent sale for �48.6 million
RNS
RNS Number : 4184S
Telford Homes PLC
21 December 2016
 

21 December 2016
 
Telford Homes Plc
('Telford Homes' or the 'Group')
 
Third Build to Rent sale for £48.6 million
 
Telford Homes Plc (AIM: TEF), the residential property developer focused on non-prime London, is pleased to announce that it has exchanged contracts for the sale of The Forge, Redclyffe Road, E6, to M&G Real Estate.  This is the Group's second transaction with M&G following the sale of Carmen Street, E14 in May 2016.  M&G Real Estate is one of the UK's largest property investors and the real estate fund management arm of M&G Investments, a leading international asset manager controlling assets in excess of £255 billion.
 
The Forge is the Group's third significant build to rent development to date and the sale comprises the freehold interest in the land and the construction of 125 open market homes for net consideration of £48.6 million.  The sale to M&G is on a forward funded basis and will comprise an initial land payment followed by regular payments throughout the construction period and therefore will not require debt finance with only limited equity to be invested by the Group.
 
The Forge has full planning permission for 192 new homes including 67 affordable homes which have been sold to a housing association in a separate transaction.  The development is currently under construction and is anticipated to be completed in 2019.
 
Telford Homes continues to explore further build to rent opportunities including the potential for longer term partnerships with key investors to enable further sales within a relatively fixed framework and to work together on future site acquisitions.
 
Alex Greaves, Head of Residential Investment at M&G Real Estate, commented: "We are thrilled to announce the next transaction with Telford Homes on 'The Forge' after completing the successful acquisition of Carmen Street earlier this year and look forward to exploring a more formal partnership in 2017.
"This deal further demonstrates our ability to deploy capital and our continued commitment to increase the supply of high quality, sustainable rental communities to London's housing market. Our residential strategy provides a route to delivering much needed housing stock at a much quicker rate and, in time, thousands of well-managed rental properties.
"We have now invested in over 2000 homes on behalf of UK and international institutional investors, including pension funds, insurance companies and local authorities. We will continue to add scale and efficiency to our portfolio, and providing our investors with long-term income growth."
 
Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented:  "Build to rent is now a significant focus for Telford Homes with these transactions providing certainty over future revenues and cash flows, needing no debt finance and delivering strong returns on capital.  We are a valuable partner for large scale investors given that we have the skills required to find land, achieve planning consents and manage and control all construction work. 
 
"The sale of The Forge cements the strong relationship that we have formed with M&G Real Estate and we are delighted to be working with them again following the successful sale of Carmen Street earlier this year.  Now that we are developing two schemes together I look forward to working closely with Alex Greaves and the M&G team and exploring ways of extending our partnership as we move into 2017."
 
- Ends -

Director Deals - Telford Homes PLC (TEF)

James Furlong, Executive Director, sold 57,582 shares in the company on the 21st December 2016 at a price of 312.00p. The Director now holds 1,214,371 shares.

The TMES - TEMPUS - January 7 2017,
The roof is not about to fall in / martin waller

By the end of the week we will have a good idea of the state of the housebuilding market. The indications are that it is pretty robust.

On Wednesday Taylor Wimpey will give its assessment of its performance last year and the prospects for this, to be followed the next day by Barratt Developments. They are, by turnover, Britain’s biggest players in the sector. This week the third on the list, Persimmon, gave its own trading update.

Last month the smaller Bovis shocked the market with what some took as a profit warning, saying that the sale of about 180 homes, expected to be completed in December, was set to slip into 2017. Bovis shares tanked; the update coincided with some apparently weak mortgage lending…

Peel have bumped down TEF price target from 485p to 465!!

Telford Homes acquires London property

StockMarketWire.com

Telford Homes has exchanged contracts for the purchase of a significant development site, the former London Electricity Board Building on Cambridge Heath Road, London, for £30.2m.

The 0.94 acre site is located in the heart of Bethnal Green. Serviced by excellent transport links including Bethnal Green Underground station (100m away) and the nearby Whitechapel Crossrail station (operational in 2018), the area has become a highly desirable location to live and work.

Telford said the proposed re-development would deliver much needed new open market and affordable homes along with an element of commercial space.

The expected gross development value of the scheme was about £95m and, subject to planning consent, the group expected to commence work on site in 2018 with completion anticipated in 2021.

i remain a fan of this company even though my holding is out of the money

Trying to scratch some funds together to get back in. Good dividend as well.

Been happy collecting the Divi's .
Chart suggests we are going the right way..

Should be a better half.

Nice looking chart.

1 Feb Canaccord... 360.00 Buy

StockMarketWire.com
Telford Homes expected to report record FY revenues and profit and that pretax profit was anticipated to be slightly ahead of current market expectations following a strong performance in H2.

"Telford Homes is extremely well positioned to achieve further significant growth, building homes for a chronically undersupplied non-prime London market and increasing its activity in the build to rent sector which earns higher capital returns," said CEO Jon Di-Stefano.

The company further said pretax profit was on track to exceed £40m in FY 2018, and £50m in FY 2019. More than 80% of anticipated gross profit for FY 2018 had already been secured and more than 60% for FY 2019.

Its build-to-rent pipeline now represented 483 homes with a combined contract value of £232m.

I'm getting increasingly edgy about the property market. Whether inflation continues to rise and interest hikes come and a major correction ensues. Sitting on comfortable profits here but tempted to get out and position for volatility ahead. More gold miners?

The prices asked are in fantasyland in London. But while 250,000 folk a year keep coming then I suppose supply will never be enough!!!!

TEF properties are outer london or even a little further afield - hence its appeal to me

26 Apr Peel Hunt 505.00 Buy

These doing quite well now i see.

From yesterday .....



25 April 2017

Telford Homes Plc
('Telford Homes' or the 'Group')

Acquisition of Stone Studios, E9

Telford Homes Plc (AIM: TEF), the residential property developer focused on non-prime London, is pleased to announce that it has exchanged contracts for the purchase of Stone Studios, a significant residential-led mixed-use development site on Wallis Road, Hackney Wick, E9.

The 1.06 acre site, which is located between Victoria Park and the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park, has detailed planning permission granted by the London Legacy Development Corporation ('LLDC'). Serviced by excellent transport links, including direct access to the adjacent Hackney Wick Overground station, the area has become a highly desirable location to live and work.

The redevelopment by Telford Homes will deliver 110 new open market homes and 10 affordable homes along with 54,218 sq.ft. of commercial space including 32,540 sq.ft. of affordable workspace. Stone Studios, which has been designed by architects Pollard Thomas Edwards, has been shortlisted for a Housing Design Award 2017. The gross development value of the scheme is expected to be over £80 million and the Group intends to commence work on site later in 2017 with completion anticipated in 2020.

Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented: "Stone Studios is situated in one of London's most exciting and fast changing neighbourhoods and we are delighted to have exchanged contracts for this significant site as it further enhances our already strong development pipeline. The location fits perfectly with our strategy of developing homes for sale in non-prime London and it is particularly pleasing that it already benefits from a planning consent. As a result, we can commence work later this year and deliver much needed new homes as swiftly as possible."

Lovely jubbly ...

4 May 2017

Telford Homes Plc
('Telford Homes' or the 'Group')

Selected as preferred partner for 236 new homes in South Kilburn, NW6

Telford Homes Plc (AIM: TEF), the residential property developer focused on non-prime London, is pleased to announce that it has been selected by the London Borough of Brent as their preferred partner to redevelop Gloucester House and Durham Court, a significant residential development site situated between Cambridge Road and Kilburn Park Road in South Kilburn, NW6.

The 3.2 acre site, which is located 100 metres from Kilburn Park underground station, has detailed planning permission and represents the second phase out of a four-phase masterplan for the regeneration of South Kilburn. The development will deliver 124 new open market homes, 102 affordable social rent homes and 10 shared equity homes in buildings ranging from four to eight storeys high.

The consented scheme has been designed by Fielden Clegg Bradley Studios working with Alison Brooks Architects, Gort Scott Architects and Grant Associates and has recently been shortlisted for a Housing Design Award 2017. The gross development value of the scheme is expected to be circa £95 million and the Group intends to commence work on site later in 2017 with completion anticipated in 2021.

The Group will make a further announcement upon entering into formal legal documentation with the London Borough of Brent.

Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented: "We are delighted to have been selected as the preferred partner of the London Borough of Brent for the redevelopment of Gloucester House and Durham Court. South Kilburn is undergoing major regeneration and our involvement represents the start of an exciting new relationship with Brent and our first development in the Borough. We look forward to exchanging contracts in the near future and commencing work on site later this year."

- Ends -