looking at the sp Inchcape appears to have withstood the big fall in sp. down c.50% since Aug07 - the start of the Credit Crunch . . . . .

By comparison look at INCH and PDG (Pendragon) - from abouit 2005/6 they are somewhat similar (ignore noise!) and then at Aug07 the charts change - such that Pendragon is now about 80% down.

Why has Inchcape fared so much better?

They claim they are "independent" - but I can't imagine this means they are not tied to the Manufacturers - otherwise they won't get the best discounts, will they?

So when will INCH suffer similar falls....?

Can't say I'm impressed by Inchcape's website - far too strong on investor relations...which really means no information at all.....where are the Best Car-Deals?

EDIT (12Nov08), some Director-buying boosted this to 78p, but it slipped back on Media News that car sales are dire (and Retail!), so I suppose no-one expect this to improve for another year - 50p someone?
(Last month Dir-Buy was minute - 7k which wouldn't buy a Dir-car....oops!)

Still has much further to fall I'd say 40p the car market is very bad.

I caught a falling knife with these. Fortunately only a moderate investment. Car market is awful but at these levels will hold with a view to add some more if, as you say mitzy, they weaken further. The Board has been caught out with higher debt levels than they would have wished but, I feel sure they will be aggressive in reducing costs and selling stock. Co. well diversified geographically and well placed to benefit when things turn around. Hopefully, they will not do as badly as Pendragon,in which I have no interest I would add.

More Ouch than Inch these days..

45p I must admit 40p is coming much sooner than I imagined..what is happening..?

Car plants and major car plant supplier worldwide are all stopping production for at least a month during Dec/Jan.

Demand has collapsed.

Honda in Swindon are closing their factory for 2 months next year, and rumour has it they will pay the workers their basic pay. How on earth is that possible without big redundancies.

I read that porky its getting worse out there.

40p sometime this week.

Market up 10% and Inch still manages to fall 7% sums it up really.

Big mistake not to buy at 40p now 50% up and rising.

Market not keen on high gearing cos especially consumer facing stocks. Inchcape caught out by the sudden surprise slump in car sales although about 50% of profits come from spare parts and servicing. As for sp, I was surprised they fell so low given cos spread of interests worldwide. Fingers crossed.

Inchcape profit warning - MoneyAM

Inchcape said sales for the first eleven months were 3.5% down in constant currency terms. The car retailer said like for like group sales were 4.9% down in constant currency terms.

The operating margin was 4.3%.

Despite the weakening trading conditions in many markets around the world, Inchcape said it expects to report underlying results for 2008 in line with previous expectations.

The company said, 'Since our previous update we have undertaken a further level of restructuring in our European businesses. As a consequence, the total restructuring cost for 2008 (including the write-off of goodwill on Latvia) will now be 85m compared to 75m as previously reported. The annualised benefit from this restructuring is expected to increase from 50m to approximately 55m.

Inchcape said it now expects more substantial sales declines than previously estimated due to the global recession and significant reduction in credit availability.

It also expects the Russian market to decline in 2009 impacted by the increase in import duty on cars and the likelihood that a number of manufacturers will change to US Dollar pricing of vehicles.

Accordingly, we would expect our underlying results for 2009 to be significantly below our previous expectations' Inchcape said.

'Given current market conditions and the expectation that trading will remain difficult going forward, the Board will not be recommending payment of a final dividend for the year ending 31st December 2008,' it added.

Commenting on this statement, AndrLacroix, Group CEO, said: 'Despite weakening trading conditions globally, we expect to report underlying results for 2008 in line with our previous expectations. The unprecedented and rapid downturn faced by the car industry around the world will impact our results in 2009.

However, markets will recover in due course and we believe that Inchcape is best positioned to benefit from its strong market positions and its long standing relationships with the leading OEMs in the industry'.

Car sales are they OK..?

Car sales OK? - Don't think so. A moderately new car can be kept for a few years longer and lose nothing -(since the Big Drop is in the first years)....and anyone with an "older" car doesn't really care, so they can wait for secondhand prices to look attractive.

If you are thinking of buying a 30k car - far better to keep the one you have and invest the difference - many of the FTSE stocks are "bound" to rise - - - whereas a Car will not!

I don't understand the notion that having an International business means INCH won't be affected - isn't this collapse "Worldwide"? - and - - I don't like the size of "restructuring" - wasn't there a case beforehand - - - Companies always need to keep costs under control.

INCH may have to keep their cars until they get rusty.

Inchcape down; Panmure cuts target price to 50p

Shares in Inchcape slip over 4 percent as Panmure Gordon cuts its target price to 50 pence, from 70 pence, in the wake of the car retailer's 2009 profit warning earlier this week.

'While it is likely to breach banking covenants, investors can only adopt a wait-and-see approach as the company is now pretty much in the hands of the banks,' says Panmure in a note.

'We do think there is strategic value in the group, although this is unlikely to be recognised over the next six months or so until the worst of its problems are over and some green shoots of recovery are in place,' says the broker, which keeps its 'hold' recommendation.

Citigroup downgrades Inchcape to Hold
MoneyAM
Citigroup has cut car retailer Inchcape from Buy to Hold and slashed its target price for the shares to 40p from 110p.

It points to:
* two profit warnings in two months
* collapse to double-digit declines in all markets
* zero dividend
* ongoing negotiations with bankers to agree new covenants
* no recovery in revenue trends expected until 2011

Now Ferrari has gone into administration... it is really not a very reliable car... at least Skoda is still with us.

mitzy - 24 Nov 2008 08:56 - 9 of 20
40p sometime this week.
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER.

Reading Autocar weekly yesterday and they were recommending the government use a stimulus package for the auto industry whereby people trading in cars over 10 years old with a new or secondhand car would receive 2000 off a new or year old model. Apparently this has been done in 7 other countries and would cost approx. 540 million but VAT receipts would reduce that 160 just a days printing really! Might be good for inch though which looks to have plateaued and would help CO2 emissions. Might have to buy an old shitbox from the auction and do likewise!

Nearly there
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5904540.ece

Thats quite an impressive break-out.

Quite an impressive breakdown!

UNLUCKY ONLY 13p

GM is preparing for bankruptcy, not good news for Inchcape.

I think it's right's issue dilution as well,some of these banks must be bagging good fees on all these RI's

European Car Sales 9% Lower - MoneyAM


New car sales in Europe were 9% lower on average in March compared with the same month last year, accroding to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association.

The average masks wide variation in car sales between member states. In Germany, there was a 39.9% increase as a result of the introduction of the governement incentive scheme. Other countries that similarly benefited include: France +8.0% and Italy +0.2%.

In the UK, where March is normally a strong month, registrations fell by 30.5%. In Spain, registrations fell by 38.7%.

Over the first quarter of 2009, sales were 17.2% down with a total of 3.44m registrations compares with 4.15m in the same period last year.

TODAY COULD BE THE DAY. BUDGET ?

Except that the budget is on Wednesday!

Some good news for a change........I took a punt on those figures and the large volume today.........


U.K. Manufacturing Increased in April as Slump Ended

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. manufacturing rose for a second month in April as a rebound in motor vehicle production helped end the yearlong factory slump and temper Britains recession.

Output climbed 0.2 percent from March, when it increased by the same amount after being revised up from a drop, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.1 percent gain, according to the median of 26 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker said yesterday that confidence may be stabilizing, and other reports this month showed the housing market slump is moderating and service industries expanded for the first time in a year. This data suggests the recession may have slowed in the second quarter after the economy shrank the most since 1979.

That is how the CHARTS look like at the moment, and it look positive as the volume could prelude to a BREAKOUT

Charts- Intraday

3 months candlestick with volume

2 years

3 months Bollinger Bands - 50 days MA - Indicators

Late yesterday after market close -BRITISH BULL - CONFIRMED the shares as a BUY ( short term ).........

Our system posted a BUY CONFIRMED today
Candlestick Analysis
Todays Candlestick Patterns:
White Candlestick

Today a White Candlestick was formed. This represents normal buying pressure.

WHITE CANDLESTICK
Type: Reversal/Continuation
Relevance: Indecision

Definition:
The White Candlestick represents normal buying pressure.

Recognition Criteria:
1. The real body of the pattern is white with normal length.
2. The upper and lower shadows are smaller than the length of the real body.

Explanation:
White Candlestick shows buying pressure. It shows that prices advanced from open to close during the day and buyers were in control.

       

- Trading Statement - and DOING WELL

The cash flow must be very good, as after a debt of 404M is now only 100M, so discounting the 234M
of the R I, there is 70M of cash flow on 2 month, that is a lot of money comin IN

LONDON (Reuters) - Car dealer Inchcape (INCH.L) reported a sharp drop in sales over the last five months, but said trade in Britain had improved after unprecedented falls and that it was starting to benefit from its cost cutting programme.

The British-based firm, which trades in 26 countries, on Wednesday said like-for-like sales for the first five months of 2009 were down 23.8 percent on a constant currency basis.

"Customer demand for new vehicles is still weak but our aftersales business, which represents approximately half of our gross profit, remains strong," the company said in a trading statement ahead of its half-year results on July 29.

"In the second quarter, our pretax profits are currently expected to be significantly ahead of the 20 million pounds reported for the first quarter, but well below the same period last year."

Inchcape said its aggressive cost reduction actions were now delivering significant benefits to mitigate the impact of the continued downturn in the auto market.

The dealer said it continued to outperform the British car industry with like-for-like sales down 21 percent in a market which is down by 27.9 percent and that it was benefiting from a stronger used car market.

The group last month posted a 69 percent drop in first-quarter pretax profit but said trading had improved in Britain and Singapore.

Inchcape shares have plunged 70 percent over the last year amid an unprecedented slump in car sales that led it to axe 2,000 jobs, scrap its dividend, reduce stocks and cut capital spending.

Shares in the group, which bounced back from a low of 5.82 pence this year after it raised 249 million pounds in a deeply discounted rights issue, closed at 16.25 pence on Tuesday, valuing the firm at around 760 million pounds.

Inchcape said its net debt stood at around 100 million pounds at the end of May -- down from 404 million pounds at the end of March 2009 -- reflecting the 234 million pounds proceeds from its rights issue and improved cash flow.

brewin dolphin gone positive

Inchcape Retain Hold price price target 17.5p Neutral, hold

re - Over 4 BILLION shares in issue

I had look at two places, and says 4.6 billion shares on issue

but my calculations say otherwise
Before the right issue of 9 for 1, there was 459.2 Million so after the right issue should be 4.59 billions more or less, but I thought there was a capitalition of 1 share for every 5 almost at the same time, so the total should be divided by 5 giving 920 Millions, or double the amount of before the R I.

Can anyone comment about it?

Today's brokers

Inchcape raised to neutral from overweight at HSBC, target price up 2p at 21p.

Not doing well so far

Car sales fall slows, scrappage helps

LONDON (Reuters) - New car registrations fell 15.7 percent on the year in June, the smallest decline in almost a year, helped by a government scheme to boost car sales, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said on Monday.

SMMT said the moderation was due to the government's scrappage scheme, which gives drivers 2,000 pounds to trade in cars more than 10 years old against a new model.

It said there were 176,264 new car registrations last month, compared with 209,190 in June 2008. June's annual fall compared with a 24.8 percent year-on-year decline in May and was the smallest since July 2008.

Demand from private buyers rose for the first time since November 2007, up 3.9 percent on the year. Small cars remained the most popular buy. "We are now beginning to see the positive impact of the scrappage scheme translate into new vehicle registrations," said SMMT chief executive Paul Everitt.

"SMMT expects the pace of improvement to increase in the coming months, but we can already see the industry making steady progress on the long road to recovery."

19.50 / 19.75p +0.75

Moving higher with the market and now close to the TOP recently

       

Yesterday's BROKERS news

Citigroup has a buy for Inchcape (LSE: INCH.L - news) , raising target to 25p from 20p

21.50 - 21.75p +1.50p

The breakout is happening today

Things are looking good, the BREAKOUT continues and earlier reached 23p

Gets a buy rating from Investor Inteligence today -

Inchcape - Surged through the 200-day MA and the 20p sideways resistance. New long-term relative highs established. Buy.

"

We add a long in Inchcape on its stunning breakout.

" Inchcape will announce its Interim Results on 29th July 2009."
Sp seems to be building in better than expected results. May be a case of 'buy on rumour, sell on fact'?

Business Financial Newswire
"Auto trader Inchcape said it increased share in most markets in the half-year to end-June. However, sales of 2.8bn (2008: 3.3bn), were down 22.9% in constant currency terms and profit before tax fell to 47m from 130.3m the previous year.

Reported earnings per share were 0.7p, compared to 3.5p in 2008.

The group said it showed a significant like for like cost reduction of 13% and a reduction in net debt to 28m, down from 408m at year end.

Inchape reported strong operating cash flow generation of 217m, following net proceeds of 234m from is successful Rights Issue. "

Inchcape upgraded to buy from hold at Panmure Gordon, target price rising to 29p from 25p - 29.07.09
Business Financial Newswire
Inchcape has delivered better than expected first half, says broker. Its recovery strategy has some momentum, particularly in the UK, Australia and Singapore.

Increases forecasts through to 2011E. For 2009E adjusted PBT moves from 67.8m to 85.0m with new EPS of 1.0p, and in 2010E PBT of 75.7m moves to 98.0m with new EPS of 1.3p.

For 2011E, 'where we would expect recovery to really gather momentum', previous PBT of 87.1m moves to 120m."

A lot of Brokers getting behind this one now and 2 new BUYS yesterday...

Inchcape PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

SG Securities
05-08-09 BUY 1.82 2.08

Panmure Gordon
05-08-09 BUY 84.97 1.12 98.04 1.54

Numis Securities Ltd
03-08-09 HOLD 102.60 1.30 112.60 1.50

Arden Partners
03-08-09 ADD 111.00 1.80 115.00 1.60

Nomura Research Institute
31-07-09 BUY 107.40 1.77 114.00 1.64

Charles Stanley
31-07-09 HOLD 95.00 1.30 122.00 1.40 0.20

Investec Securities
28-07-09 HOLD 93.01 1.16 99.01 1.14

Brewin Dolphin Investment Banking
26-06-09 HOLD 85.00 1.10

2009 2010
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 97.08 1.26 113.87 1.54 0.10

1 Month Change 5.80 0.14 11.93 0.21 0.10
3 Month Change 32.76 0.52 33.22 0.62 0.10


GROWTH
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

Norm. EPS -15.59% -74.70% 22.22%
DPS 4.66% % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS

2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

EBITDA 295.60m 169.72m 171.72m

EBIT 236.20m 146.50m 173.80m

Dividend Yield 9.58% % 0.35%

Dividend Cover 1.84x x 15.40x

PER 5.67x 22.41x 18.34x

PEG -0.36f -0.30f 0.82f

Net Asset Value PS 15.93p 29.00p 27.00p

Cars sales bounce as scrappage kicks in
Date: Thursday 06 Aug 2009

Car sales rose in July for the first time in a year as buyers took advantage of the governments scrappage scheme.

UK car sales rose by 2.4% in July compared with last year, according to the industry trade body the Society of Motor Manufacturers. It is the first rise is sales since April last year.

New car sales totalled 157,149 in July, with roughly 33,000 of those sold through the scrappage scheme. That scheme total is double the amount sold under the scheme in June.

Sales this year are still very depressed even with the boost from the scrappage scheme. Totals are down 22.8% on the same period last year the SSMT said, even though July's sales were 10.4% higher than the SMMT's forecast for the month.

Sales were 10.1% lower than the July average between 1999 and 2008 of 174,879. Registrations to private buyers rose 33.4% in July to 77,911, but fleet purchases were down 18% at 72,014.

The Ford Fiesta remained the best-selling car in July but BMWs Mini seems to be the main beneficiary of the scrappage scheme as its sales trebled in July from this time last year.

"The impact of the scrappage scheme is clear and we are encouraged by the impact it has had, increasing new car registrations for the first time since April 2008," said Paul Everitt, SMMT chief executive.

However, the concern now is what might happen when the money for scheme runs out. New car buyers currently get a 2,000 incentive if they scrap a registered before 31 August 1999 to buy a new car. Half of the money is paid by the government and half by the car industry.

But the SSMT estimates the cash for the scheme could run out in October or early November.

Today is on the TURN from retracement

Turning with the FTSE and at the same time bouncing from the support as Indicators have reached oversold

Moving up nicely today, looks like the uptrend as started again.

Good movement UP today and the MACD is looking good as is ready for Covergence ( blue line crossing up red ) plus almost crossing 0

UK car sales rise 11.4 pct yy in Sept - SMMT

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - New car sales in Britain rose an annual 11.4 percent in September, their third consecutive rise, helped by a government incentive scheme, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said on Tuesday.

The industry body said there were 367,929 cars sold.

The government introduced a scrappage scheme earlier this year which gives drivers 2,000 pounds ($3,185) to trade in cars more than 10 years old against a more fuel-efficient newer model.

The government announced a 100 million pound extension to the scheme last week to include an additional 100,000 vehicles. The scheme is co-funded by the car industry.

The 300 million pounds originally allotted for the scheme was set to run out before the scheduled end of the programme next February, the SMMT said.

"The extension of the scheme will help to sustain demand through the latter part of this year and into 2010," said Paul Everitt, SMMT chief executive.

"This will allow economic recovery to strengthen and safeguard valuable industrial capability."

From Brokers recommendations, 2 buys and a hold over the past 2 days rather bullish I would say.....

Inchcape PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
13-10-09 BUY 105.93 1.64 118.56 1.77

SG Securities
12-10-09 BUY 1.82 2.08

Numis Securities Ltd
12-10-09 HOLD 103.00 1.30 113.00 1.50

Inchcape looks to have sprung back to life over the last few days after a period of sideways consolidation over the last few weeks.

The chart looks very bullish.....

From RNS today......

OUTLOOK

Our Group financial performance for the full year is expected to be significantly ahead of previous expectations..........

Says it all really.

Brokers starting to respond to todays upbeat outlook.... 42p target.....

20-Oct-09 Inchcape INCH Panmure Gordon Buy 35.17p 42.00p - Reiteration

have just bought some of these have missed a lot of upside but still think there is further to go, took my eye off the ball, concentrating on oillies.

I was looking at these when they were 28p ,only noticed today what was happening ,,trouble is i put so much on watchlists i dont know whether i'm coming or going... However after the compny statement and broker rec's i may see if there is a small pullback this week and try to buy a few.

Hurry up Jimmy.

Interesting to note how Brokers have slapped BUY recos on inch over the past couple of days, very bullish i reckon.......

Inchcape PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Nomura Research Institute
20-10-09 BUY 140.10 2.43 148.20 2.25 0.90

Numis Securities Ltd
20-10-09 HOLD 140.10 2.40 150.20 2.30

Panmure Gordon [A]
20-10-09 BUY 105.93 1.64 118.56 1.77

Investec Securities [A]
19-10-09 BUY 120.01 1.95 120.00 1.69

SG Securities [A]
19-10-09 BUY 1.82 2.08

execdir/finace director buys on 22 @33 something

AFTER THIS MORNING SPIKE TO 33.50p

Moving forward again as order book/level 2 has 12 extra trades at bid side

From Equity movers.......... INCHCAPE (LSE)

Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM		Hold
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator	Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel	Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands		Hold
Short Term Indicators Average:	80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 27294375
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index		Hold
50 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price	Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average:	75% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 25712863
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index		Hold
100 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
Long Term Indicators Average:	67% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 25717621
Overall Average:	72% - Buy
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance 33.4000 29.8200 32.5900 35.3600

RSI,

What has happened to this one?

CONSOLIDATION "The Board has proposed a 1 for 10 consolidation of Inchcape plc ordinary shares, subject to Shareholders approval at the Annual General Meeting to be held on 13 May 2010. Following the share consolidation there is expected to be approximately 460 million Inchcape ordinary shares in issue, reduced from approximately 4.6 billion at present. Terms: Every 10 Ordinary Shares of GBP0.01 will be consolidated into 1 Ordinary Share of GBP0.10 Relative details and dates: 13 May 2010 Annual General Meeting Further information may follow in due course."

Great, yet another way to manipulate the stock. I wonder if they ever round up, rather than down?

StockMarketWire.com
"Inchcape upgraded to BUY by UBS - target price 330p"

There has been a nice rise each day on this since the low of 240p although I have to admit I did not buy in to it

StockMarketWire.com
Interim pre-tax profits at international car distributor and retailer Inchcape jumped to 115.2m - up from 47m last time.

It said pre-exceptional pre-tax profits for the six months to the end of June of 115.2m (2009: 65.4m) were up 76.1% in actual currency and up 67.7% in constant currency.

Reported sales of 3.1bn (2009: 2.8bn) were up 11.1% in actual currency and up 7.9% in constant currency.

Chief executive AndrLacroix said the robust recovery was a testament to the strength of Inchcape's broad geographic portfolio and diversified revenue streams.

He added: "We benefited from the positive impact of operational leverage with strong vehicle revenues driven by industry growth and market share gains in many of our markets and good momentum in our Aftersales business which represents half of the group's gross profit.

"Inchcape's competitive position continues to improve through our strategic commitment to superior customer service enabled by our operational focus on our Top Five Priorities of growing market share, growing Aftersales, reducing costs, managing working capital and selective capital expenditure investment."

Not far from it's 12 month high again. Tempted to take the money & run.

Extract form a large broker note
from Deutsche Bank
refering to stocks to watch
2013........

Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Europe
Periodical
European Daily
Focus
Tuesday, 4th December 2012

European Equity Strategy 2013 Outlook: Pro Cyclicals
Companies Mentioned
Telecom Italia (TLIT.MI),EUR0.7 Buy Price
Target EUR1.24
Intesa SanPaolo (ISP.MI),EUR1.31 Buy
Price Target EUR1.6
AXA (AXAF.PA),EUR12.67 Buy Price
Target EUR14.3
Adecco (ADEN.VX),CHF45.82 Buy Price
Target CHF54
JCDecaux (JCDX.PA),EUR17.35 Buy Price
Target EUR25
Hunting (HTG.L),GBp806.5 Buy Price
Target GBp1050
BASF (BASFn.DE),EUR69.47 Buy Price
Target EUR76
SKF (SKFb.ST),SEK159.2 Buy Price Target
SEK165
Saint Gobain (SGOB.PA),EUR30.68 Buy
Price Target EUR33.5
Inchcape (INCH.L),GBp429.1 Buy Price
Target GBp480

We are positive on the outlook for equities due to an expected rebound in global
growth to 3.5% in 2013, led by US growth of 2.5%.
In the euro area we expect the pace of deleveraging to slow, the credit impulse to
rebound, and demand to surprise positively in H1 2013. We expect the stronger
GDP growth to improve the fiscal outlook, and for euro area CDS spreads to
tighten.

Three factors that could cause the cycle to turn are 1) an easing in balance sheet
pressures related to the 2011 stress test targets, 2) a slowing in the pace of destocking
in the euro area, and 3) a pick-up in global growth.

In 2012 US household spending was strong, particularly on durable goods and
residential investment. If resolution of the fiscal cliff causes policy uncertainty to
decline, we expect business capex growth to follow suit.

In EM we expect growth to pick-up after 18 months of adjustment, and for the
recovery to regain traction as credit growth stabilizes, led by China.
We expect global growth of 3.5% to drive EPS growth of 6% for the Stoxx 600,
and for the decline in euro area sovereign risks to cause the market to re-rate to
12.5x forward earnings. We expect the Stoxx 600 to rise to 315 by end-2013, and
to 340 by end-2014.

Against this backdrop we believe we should continue to buy cyclicals. The 18%
outperformance of cyclicals relative to defensives since our 2012 outlook note
could be just the appetizer.

The global cyclicals will clearly benefit from a return to 3.5% global GDP growth
and domestic cyclicals should re-rate on the back of a growth surprise in the Euroarea
which might involve a recovery in both business capex and consumer
spending.

A recovery in capex should benefit the revenues of the receivers and enhance the
growth outlook of the spenders. In the next leg of the cyclical rally we need to put
away those ideas that capex is bad.

We recommend overweights in banks, insurance, telecom, chemicals, media and
construction, and underweights in food & beverages. We prefer value over growth
and like the Italian market relative to the Swiss market.

Our 2013 strategy picks are Telecom Italia, Intesa SanPaolo, AXA, Adecco,
JCDecaux, Hunting, BASF, SKF, Saint Gobain and Inchcape.
Michael Biggs
(+44) 20 7545-5506
michael.biggs@db.com

AND

Further to above note ........

3 December 2012
European Equity Strategy
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 21

Domestic UK has been amongst some of our main sector recommendations this year
(initially in UK Equity Spotlight 17 February). Given the improvements in the Bank of
England’s credit availability indices (for secured lending to households – see chart in
previous section) which correlate well with the UK credit impulse, this trend could
continue into 2013. Comments from Experian also point to a potential pick up in
unsecured lending. This would benefit amongst others the likes of Inchcape, JD
Wetherspoon and Kingfisher.

INCH Inchcape.

Chart breakout and new 52 week high for INCH



Looking for 500p SP going into
the new year 2013.

UK Car Sales up again in November (2012)
December 6, 2012 By Cars UK
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has revealed that new car sales grew again in the UK in November – up by 11.3 per cent.




At some point, new car sales in the UK must surely start to ease as the economic pressure bite, but so far in 2012 we’ve had an inexorable rise in numbers.

The latest figures for November show new car sales (well, to be precise, new car registrations – which include Pre-Reg cars) up by an impressive 11.3 per cent, following on from a rise of 12.1 per cent in October, with private buyers driving sales rather than fleet.

It also looks like Ford has been pushing the new Focus hard (or they’ve finally got supply up to speed) as the Ford Focus grabbed the top sales spot for November, narrowly beating the Fiesta in to second place by just 12 sales.

The rise and rise of the UK car market also sees the UK overtaking France as the second biggest new car market in Europe, behind Germany, as the Euro zone car markets contract as Europe’s economies are in an even bigger mess than the UK’s.

Paul Everitt, SMMT boss, said:

New car registrations rose 11.3% in November, positioning the UK new car market as the second largest in Europe.

The upward trend has been driven by private retail customers. The outlook for 2013 remains challenging, but vehicle manufacturers and their dealers will continue to work hard to attract motorists to their showrooms and deliver outstanding value.

The SMMT says the UK new car market has grown to 1,921,052 cars so far in 2012, up by 5.4 per cent on 2011.

Top Selling Cars November 2012
1.Ford Focus
2.Ford Fiesta
3.Vauxhall Corsa
4.Volkswagen Golf
5.Vauxhall Astra
6.Nissan Qashqai
7.BMW 3 Series
8.BMW 1 Series
9.Mercedes C Class
10.MINI


Read more: http://www.carsuk.net/uk-car-sales-up-again-in-november-2012/#ixzz2EI18KoES

11 Dec Inchcape PLC INCH UBS Buy 0.00 436.50 - 515.00 Initiates/Starts

Starts coverage with a 515p SP TARGET.

The full note......

Consumer, Cyclical

Inchcape (INCH.L) Catriona O'Grady...........+44-20-7567 2892
Analyst
catriona.o-grady@ubs.com

Alex Hugh, CFA.............. +44-20-7567 5816
Analyst
alexander.hugh@ubs.com

Price (07 Dec 2012)..............436p/US$6.98
12-month rating..... Prior: Not
Rated => Buy
12m price target...........- => 515p/US$8.26
Market cap...................£2.02bn/US$3.23bn
Full-Year EPS
2012E................................................ 39.00p
2013E................................................ 42.18p

Getting into gear Initiate coverage with a Buy rating and 515p price target
Inchcape is a leading global automotive distributor and retailer. It operates in 26 markets,
carrying out distribution activities in 22 and retail in four. Inchcape holds a premium weighted
brand portfolio with six brands accounting for 90% of profits. We estimate APAC/emerging
m.arkets will generate 70% of FY 12 EBIT. Structural attractions set to continue
Inchcape offers exposure to three areas of structural growth: 1) We expect an increase in car
penetration in Inchcape’s emerging markets, where current rates are 26% below global
averages; 2) We forecast further premiumisation with 79% growth in premium sales across
Inchcape’s emerging markets by 2019E; 3) We have dissected Inchcape’s revenue streams and
believe aftersales is the most defensive and highest margin activity. We see it growing to 19%
o.f sales and 54% of gross profit by 2016 as emerging markets car parcs’ grow and mature. Singapore and the UK offer cyclical upside
Some 35% of the Singaporean car parc is 6-8 years old and will likely be replaced in the next
two to four years – in line with the 10-year Certificate of Entitlement (COE) cycle. We see a
recovery in 2014 with 18% like-for-like (LFL) growth forecast for South Asia. We estimate a
return to peak revenues for the UK gives 12% potential upside to group EBIT, although this is a
m.edium-term story. Valuation: 515p price target based on a blend of PE, EV/EBIT and SOTP
Inchcape trades on 10.4x 2013E PE and 6.9x EV/EBIT, both below 10-year averages of 11x
and 7.4x, respectively. Our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation implies a fair value of 526p. We
calculate Inchcape delivers a 27% cross-cycle conversion ratio, attractive returns and is cash
positive. We initiate with a Buy.
-
European Morning Meeting Highlights 11 December 2012
UBS

INCH INCHCAPE

14 Dec Inchcape PLC INCH Deutsche Bank Buy 0.00 437.00 480.00 515.00 Retains

SP Target 515p

Deutsche Bank Reaffirms Buy Rating on Inchcape (INCH)

December 14th, 2012 - 0 comments - Filed Under - by Tyrone Williams
Filed Under: Analyst Articles - UK - Stock Market

Inchcape (LON: INCH)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by investment analysts at Deutsche Bank in a note issued to investors on Friday.

Shares of Inchcape opened at 437.10 on Friday. Inchcape has a one year low of GBX 276.20 and a one year high of GBX 452.10. The company’s market cap is £2.011 billion.

A number of other analysts have also recently weighed in on INCH. Analysts at Exane BNP Paribas reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of Inchcape in a research note to investors on Tuesday, November 27th. They now have a $7.21 price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Investec reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Inchcape in a research note to investors on Monday, November 26th. They now have a $8.02 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Nomura reiterated a “neutral” rating on shares of Inchcape in a research note to investors on Thursday, November 22nd. They now have a $7.02 price target on the stock.

Inchcape plc is an automotive retailer and distributor. As December 31, 2011, the Company operated in 26 markets, of which it operated as distributor in 22 of these, with retail only operations in the United Kingdom, Poland, Russia and China.

http://www.dailypolitical.com/finance/stock-market/deutsche-bank-reaffirms-buy-rating-on-inchcape-inch.htm

2012 Annual Results Announcement

Operational and strategic highlights:

· 12% adjusted EPS* growth in 2012 (3 year CAGR of 14%)
· Over 70% of Group trading profit now derived from Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets
· Record profit in Australasia and North Asia, and a record trading margin in the UK
· Post period end, acquired Trivett Automotive Group, Australia's largest premium automotive group

Financial highlights:

· Reported sales up 4.4% to £6.1bn (2011: £5.8bn)
· Pre-exceptional PBT up 10% to a record £250.3m (2011: £227.7m)
· Reported PBT up 24% to £251.5m (2011: £203.4m)
· Operating cash flow of £249.2m (2011: £244.7m)
· Final dividend payout ratio increased to 40%, Board recommends final dividend of 10.5p per share giving a total dividend for the year of 14.5p per share (2011: 11.0p), up 32%

14 May Inchcape PLC INCH Deutsche Bank Buy 526.00 527.00 585.00 585.00 Retains

585p SP Target.

A car sales firm worth looking at again, anyone traded them over the last year?